NFL Hot Seat Check-in! Which Coaches are in Trouble?

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1:06Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. We are doing a little hot seat check-in. What teams are going to be looking for head coaches this offseason? Who is coaching for a job in the final five weeks here? Could there be some surprises that people aren't thinking about? To break it all down, we've got Pat Daugherty from NBC Sports. He's been on with us before. Always fun talking about this stuff with him, especially coaches with Pat. I love talking coaches with Pat. So let's take a break. We come back and we talk NFL hot seats. This episode of the Ringer NFL Show is presented by State Farm.

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2:21All right, we are back here with Pat Daugherty. We are talking NFL coaches, a little hot seat talk. Pat, and we're going to start with this first category. Okay, the first category is they're gone. And by that, I mean, like, I would legitimately be surprised if these guys are back. And I actually only have two guys in this category. You know, we already have the Titans job open. We have the Giants job open. And I think we're almost definitely going to get two more. Kevin Stefanski and Pete Carroll are the two guys I have in this category. So I'll give you the case real quick. You tell me if you agree or disagree.

3:00Stefanski is, I mean, 6-23 over the last two seasons. Even if a guy has been well-respected and, you know, he's won, what, coach of the year twice. So I just, I six and 23 is hard to get over where I just feel like they're going to look at it and be like, okay, we're just going to go in a different direction and try to figure this thing out. So that's Stefanski. And then Pete Carroll. I mean, they're two and 10. I know we talked about him last time you were on most surprisingly, maybe they've got the worst vibes in the NFL. It just feels hopeless every time you watch them. And so I don't think Pete Carroll is going to be back here.

3:35So agree or disagree with those two selections. A hundred percent agree. on Carroll because two, the problem for Carroll is that the thesis of the hire was immediately disproven where he's at least going to establish a baseline. We're at least not going to be a laughingstock anymore. The vibes will be good. Like say what you will have Pete Carroll. Like he's been one of the ultimate vibes coach, not to like undersell him as a coach much more than a vibes coach, but you just took it for granted. You were getting like a positive atmosphere, positive energy with Pete Carroll. And instead, Neil, not only has that not happened, And not only did the baseline not get raised, not only were they not pulled out of the doldrums, like have they ever been this big of a laughingstock like during their laughingstock era?

4:16Because like this is their laughingstock era and it somehow just fell even further. And I'm a little surprised it happened, to be honest with Pete. Like I thought like even if Pete was like past his prime, you know, like there's one thing Pete Carroll can do, it's get any team to nine and eight. Yeah, or at least seven and 10, you know? Even seven and 10 would have been good. That's true. for Pete Carroll. And so, yeah, the fact that the immediate, like the reason you hired Pete Carroll was to prevent this from happening. And then it did happen. And, you know, the Raiders, I think, no one wants to be one and done with a coach, a team that's had the Raiders coaching drama.

4:51I'm sure it is particularly not wanting to go down this road again. So how do you watch the 2025 Las Vegas Raiders though? And think someone else should not be leading this team. It's also kind of their thing, Pat, you know, branding your lane. Like we're the one and done team, you know, we just, We make a bad decision and then we, you know, we're not going to fall for the sunk cost. We're just, all right, it was a bad decision. Let's move on. They don't really have another lane. So maybe that can be their lane. Yeah. I was thinking about Carol. And have you ever edited a Wikipedia page in your life?

5:21I've tried once or twice. You have? Okay. I'm a Wikipedia devotee. Like I love Wikipedia. But that world, talk about an insular world. Like I was just like, I was going to call Pete Carol's coaching staff insular to his own sons. Wikipedia editing is a very insular that I did not feel like I could crack. Because I was going to suggest, I think you and I are both Pete Carroll fans. We're fans of his career. We think he's been a great coach. We need to just erase this year from the Pete Carroll legacy. I was going to ask you, because I don't even know how to do it, go into Wikipedia. Maybe we contact someone at Pro Football Reference and just be like, just don't include this season on his resume there.

5:58So we're both on the same page with Pete Carroll. We'll see what Tom Brady decides. You know, there were reports out there that, hey, he wanted Ben Johnson or whatever. So let's see if he gets another shot at this and finds his favorite offensive coach. Where are you with Stefanski? You sound like you might be a little less sure about Stefanski belonging in this category. Final thought on Pete, by the way, the final year erasing itself, that'll take care of itself. No one remembers Babe Ruth on the Boston Braves. That's true. So Pete will be fine. Stefanski, I am a little more on the fence because I will say this is a very long time for an organization as dysfunctional as the Cleveland Browns not to make a firing.

6:35I'm sure they're itching to do it. I just sort of think they're looking for anything positive. And I bet if they did an organizational audit, they would find – the one positive thing we still have is we believe in the coach. Even though we're 6-23, this isn't his fault. One of the guys making the roster decisions, he was so bad, he now works for the Colorado Rockies. So let's not blame that on Kevin Stefanski. It's a Kevin. He was blaming Stefanski. Didn't D. Podesta do that in his introductory press conference? He said he wasn't calling the plays or something. He played several people. Yeah. Kevin must have been one of them.

7:09Okay. But Kevin's problem when it comes to not being fired is that, you know, a lot of the Hail Marys have already been thrown. Someone's been fired from the front office. They've, you know, untold number of quarterback changes. He's fired himself as play caller twice. Right. And it's hard to stay one step ahead of the law for that long as he's been doing. so that is working against him I also will say, you said, you told me we could discuss trades I can see almost Kevin Stefanski being a guy like the league might be interested in trading it like this isn't his fault, this is just what happens in Cleveland, two time coach of the year like you said so I don't think he's done coaching next year for sure, I'm just not sure if it's in Cleveland or not I was looking at some of these available head coaching lists, I think there was one on NFL.com.

7:58I don't know that I've seen a more uninspiring list, like since I've been in the, you know, covering this where I'm just like, oh my gosh, these are the top candidates that are available to be a head coach. So I'm with you. I actually think if Stefanski were fired, that he might be the top candidate on the market, like for him and, you know, his agent and whatever, this might be a great time to actually go ahead and get fired. And I think what happens sometimes is like an ownership gets, you know, wind of that where Jimmy Haslam will be like, wait, other people like him? Maybe we should just keep him.

8:30So that's not out of the question. I was thinking about this, though, Pat. All right. So rank these possibilities for Stefanski, because I do think he's well-respected. I think it's a bad situation. I'm not telling you he's done a good job at 6-23, but I can see him having a good second act somewhere in a more competent organization. So here are the four things I wrote down. Giants head coach, Titans head coach, Raiders head coach, or Eagles offensive coordinator. I had to throw that in because he's got roots to Philadelphia. And if it's one of the, you know, Philadelphia, that organization is a good place to kind of rehab your image.

9:04And then all of a sudden a year later, everybody wants you. If you had to rank those Giants, Titans, Raiders, head coach and Eagles OC from most likely to least likely if Stefanski is no longer with the Browns, what would your ranking be? I think I might eliminate Raiders and Titans right off the bat because Kevin Stefanski's really like, dude, like I've been with the Browns. Like, I don't need to get back on this kind of train. And like, I want to be a head coach, but I need to be in a competent organization. Titans aren't a little intriguing? Yeah, they're a little intriguing. Low expectations, young quarterback.

9:35They're more intriguing than the Raiders. Yeah, I agree with that. But I think he'll be most intrigued by the New York Giants. And they would maybe be intrigued by him too. Because whenever you have a young franchise quarterback, good organizations tend to revolve the entire franchise around. But, you know, we want to be a good overall team, good overall organization, but nothing is more important than developing this quarterback. Who would be better in the NFL who's available right now to do that than Kevin Stefanski? I think there'd be mutual interest there. And then I do think, yeah, the head coaching job that he wants doesn't become available.

10:06He might almost view it as a better gamble to go to like Eagles rehab school and like be the sacrificial lamb for the Raiders or the Titans. And like, listen, I'll be there the year the Eagles are good. As you know about the Eagles, they're on the every other year plan somehow. Talk about vibes. How are the Eagles always eight and four with like the worst possible vibes? Yeah, it's hard to do. I can see him opting for that. The Eagles rehab plan over what he views as like a two flawed of a head coaching job. I think it's a great point because you can get the second head coaching job. The third head coaching job, if the second one doesn't work out, that's a lot harder.

10:38So I think you're right. He and he's a young, you know, he's a younger guy on the scale of NFL head coaches. So I think he would be wise to pick the right spot. Giants could intrigue him. I think the Titans maybe could intrigue him. You know, I'm with you. It has not been a good organization. It has not been stable. It probably would just depend on, you know, what does he think of Cam Ward? What does he think of their GM, Borgonzie? Like, would this be a good situation or not? So yeah, I'll go Giants. I think you're right. Giants, then Eagles OC, then Titans head coach, then Raiders head coach in that order.

11:13All right, so those are the two guys I have in the they're gone category. Next category, Pat, on the fence. These are guys who might be coaching for their jobs here over the last five weeks. As stupid as that sounds, you know, sometimes you go into week 18 and the insider's like, this guy's coaching for their job. And I'm like, that seems really stupid to make a decision on if this team wins or loses. But the more you get to know, like, owners and decision makers in the NFL, you're like, no, I could actually see that guy making a decision based on how this goes. So I've got Mike McDaniel of the Dolphins, Raheem Morris of the Falcons, and Jonathan Gannon of the Cardinals in this category.

11:50Do you feel like any of them belong in the first category of they're gone? Or are you on the fence with these three guys as well? I think I'm going to put Raheem and Gannon in the first category of they're gone. And for them, it boils down to one pretty simple reason. I feel like, for one thing, I feel like defensive-minded guys don't get as much leeway. Don't get as much grace because like an offensive minded head coach like Brian Dable could just he could blame it on the quarterback for almost four years. Like you have an easier out, an easier alibi. If you're a defensive minded head coach and, you know, you don't have at least like a top 16, top half of the league defense, you get a lot less grace.

12:28I feel like I'm not just from ownership, but from the media. There's just a lot less patience. Like we saw with like Robert Sala with the Jets. There's a lot less patience in general. I feel like for defensive minded head coaches. Raheem Morris, he's got the real bad problem. If it's the second year, this should be the year, you know, where at least his defense is hitting at stride. And, you know, the exact opposite is happening. And, of course, all the problems on offense, still the problems with game management. But if you're a defensive-minded guy in year two, you don't have the defense on the up and up.

12:57You know, you don't have to be Mike McDonald with the Seahawks, but you've got to be better than what the Falcons have been. And it's the same with the Cardinals. He's a defensive-minded guy. He's four years now, I believe. He doesn't have a defensive bully. and the quarterback plateaued. I could just see the front office is relatively new still. I could see them wanting to get another shot at the head coaching thing. And I feel like both of them are probably, I think it's gonna be a big year for coaches. Oh, okay. All right. So that's interesting because we landed, I think a little differently where I came away from this exercise going, I think there might be fewer openings than I think.

13:28And a part of that is just looking at the candidate. The low hanging fruit has already been picked too. Yeah, you're right. And I feel like some of these teams are going to be spooked and be like, I don't really see someone out there who I love. Let's give this guy one more chance. But you make a strong case. I mean, Raheem Morris, 33 and 55 as a head coach. I was looking at every head coach that has coached 50 games. He ranks 177th out of 204 in winning percentage. The game management's horrendous. They're four and eight. Now, I will say this. If I'm Raheem Morris's agent and I'm like, you know, doing my leaks to the insiders being like, hey, put it out.

14:00Maybe you want to throw this out there. You know, there are two things I would put out there, Pat. Tell me if either of these sell you. One is great coaches vouch for Raheem Morris. Like Tomlin at one point did an interview and it's like, Raheem Morris is the best coach I've ever coached with. And I was like, wow, that's interesting. McVay, he obviously coached there with McVay. I think Shanahan in the past has said. So that has some meaning at least where great coaches are like, no, this guy is a great coach. That's one. And he can also play what I like to call their Terry Fontenot card here, Pat, where, you know, sometimes I don't advocate for backstabbing.

14:34if you're listening in your industry or your profession. I'm not saying I would do this, but if you're in the NFL, you could maybe just whisper that, hey man, come on, Terry Fontenot has had six first round picks, including four in the top 10. He paid a free agent quarterback, a hundred million guaranteed money. He already traded away our first round pick next year, which by the way, is going to be a top 10 pick. The organization has been under 500, regardless of the coach, five straight seasons with him. I mean, this really isn't my fault, Mr. Blank. You know, you got to go Mr. Blank as the coaches do.

15:07Yeah, Mr. Blank, this isn't my fault. It's more the GM. Like, maybe you get another GM in here and I'm telling you, I can turn this thing around. What do you think? Would those things sway you on Raheem Morris? A little bit because to Terry Fontenot, sorry if this is like too insular internet, but you know the meme where it says no one and then it says so-and-so, it's so-and-so time. Terry Fontenot is kind of the ultimate. It's Terry Fontenot time. Like, even though no one was asking for that, that is a persuasive argument. and Raheem, it's not just great coaches who vouch for him, it's also great players the Rams defense, I remember they were pounding the table for Raheem Morris to get another head coaching job so he does have a lot of people in the league who believe in him working in his favor.

15:48Yeah, I agree with that and with Gannon, I mean his winning I don't think people realize how bad his winning percentage is worse than Raheem Morris he's 15-31 in three seasons, so he doesn't qualify for 50 games yet, if he did that would rank 191st out of 204 coaches all time. And by the way, it's not just the winning. You know, we talked to Raheem Morris doesn't have any other like weird stuff on his resume other than, you know, they lose a lot of games and the defense is bad and his game management's bad. But the weird stuff I'm talking about, remember, Jonathan Gannon cost his team a pick swap because he couldn't even take the job correctly.

16:24They got hit with the tampering thing when he took the job. Then he got fined$100 ,000 for what, I don't even know what to call it anymore. What did he do to Emery Di Mercado? Like, can we say struck him, punch him, made contact? He did. So whatever it was, he did it. It was striking adjacent. That was for sure. It was striking adjacent. And he got fined$100 ,000 for that. So I know they lost a bunch of one score games, but he was supposed to come in and it's like, all right, get Kyler Murray on track, a new era, get this defense going. And they're in like the exact same place, if not worse than when he got there.

16:58So I would put him like ahead of Raheem Morris in terms of guys I think would get fired. The only thing I would say too, to your point with Raheem, with Gannon, if you want to blame someone else, Kyler Murray looks like a pretty convenient scapegoat. How am I supposed to win with Kyler Murray? Yeah. And so he can play that game. Yeah. This is part of coaching, you know, find someone else. Politicking is part of coaching for sure. Yeah. All right. So Mike McDaniel, you think he belongs here. Where are you with Mike McDaniel? You know, you're on the fence like I am, where I'm actually not sure if he's going to get fired or not.

17:29I'm very on the fence. And so, you know, sometimes teams develop a reputation of like, they kick the field goal when they should go for it, or then they go for it when they should kick the field goal. The Dolphins kind of feel like that to me in their front office where certain people have been kept way too long. Other people have been let go too quickly. A lot of players don't get second contracts with the Dolphins. Then they go on and have a successful rest of career elsewhere, where it just seems like they can't self-scout. well either. I feel like they're a very sensitive organization. I feel like one thing, maybe helping Mike McDaniel, I think something you alluded to earlier was a different team, but I think the Dolphins could maybe not fire Mike McDaniel because they'd be spooked he would get hired immediately elsewhere.

18:10I could just see them keeping him. I'm not even saying keeping him would be the wrong decision, but I could see them keeping him for the wrong reasons. I'm genuinely confused too if keeping him is the right decision. I agree with that. Like, should he be viewed as someone who absolutely maximized, like, an inadequate quarterback in Tua Tungvaloa? Or should he be viewed as someone who, like, maxed out immediately? Like, he's a very tough guy to figure, I feel like, in the coaching care. Yeah, I'm with you, because if you look at it, you're like, another coach with Tua Tungvaloa the last four years and the injuries he's had and the rest of the roster, Mike McDaniel has gone 33-30 with two playoff appearances.

18:50That kind of feels like it's not bad, you know? Like, I don't know. Sure. The great coaches, maybe they would have done better, but not. I think if you, if you took all the coaches in the NFL and you're like, would they have done better than that over the last four years? I think more would not have done better than that than actually would have done better than that. So yeah, in some ways it's kind of like, well, that's not bad. Now, on the other hand, he hasn't shown an ability to do any of the other stuff. You know, it just has been weird vibes and the leadership. He loses Vic Fangio after one year where it's like, all right, what kind of what happened there?

19:24There's stuff with the discipline and accountability. So I'm not sweeping that stuff under the rug. That hasn't been good at the same time. A month ago, it felt like this. They might be in line for the number one pick. And that hasn't happened. You know, they've won four or five here. They seem to still be playing hard. When they fired Chris Greer, the GM, I kind of took that as a, hey, maybe they are going to stick with Mike McDaniel here. So yeah, right now I'm saying keep him. I do kind of feel like of all the people who are coaching for their jobs, he might be the one where it's sort of like these last five weeks, if they're getting blown out and guys look disinterested and it's embarrassing, he might be out of there.

20:00Whereas even if they don't make the playoffs, but it's like, all right, it's a, it's a respectable team. They might say, Hey, let's change some of the other stuff, but keep the head coach. You made the most important point of Mike McDaniel probably too, where listen, we already fired someone. We fired the GM. Right. It's like, now we're moving on. We want stability. Two, I think some dysfunctional organizations fire too quickly. Then there's some other dysfunctional organizations like the Cowboys, who they view stability as synonymous with competency, which is, of course, not always the case. Sometimes you actually do need to make a change.

20:32I think the Giants are like that, by the way. Yes, they are, for sure. They're obsessed with not being an unstable organization, and they don't make changes, and you're like, this guy kind of sucks. I probably would have made a change earlier there. All right, let's take a break. We come back and I got a couple wild cards for Pat. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there.

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22:16And the two names I kept coming back to, and again, I don't think they're going to be gone, but if you told me, Hey, there's a surprise, they're playing each other this weekend. And that's John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, where it's just two guys who have been with their organizations for a long time, widely respected, have had great careers, have been two of the better coaches of what the last 20 years here at the same time, is it time for a change? And is, is there a team like the giants that says, we don't really love the candidates out there. Let's take a swing with the trade on one of these guys.

22:50So where are you on those two, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, or is there another wild card that I'm missing here? See, I must admit Tomlin or Harbaugh are much more like viable trade candidates than Kevin Stefanski. The rare coach trades do evolve, like involve established brands like Tomlin or Harbaugh. And Tomlin, I really do think, is at his Andy Reid at the Eagles juncture with the Steelers, where I think everyone agrees Mike Tomlin should be coaching an NFL team. But sometimes you just have to shake it up. The Eagles are a great organization in knowing when to shake them. Not just with Andy Reid, but then with Doug Peterson.