NFL Panic Index! Where We're At With the Ravens, Eagles, and Steelers

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1:34Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. We are doing a little panic index today. Three teams who are still alive to varying degrees, but three teams coming off of week 13 losses and teams that could be facing disappointment in the weeks ahead if they don't figure it out. I'm talking about the Ravens, the Steelers, and the Eagles. Is there hope? Are they doomed? Is it something in between? We'll talk about all the scenarios with my friend from the Ringer, Deontay Lee, is today's guest. All right, let's take a break. We'll come back and we'll talk to Deontay. This episode of the Ringer NFL Show is presented by State Farm.

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2:52Diante Lee:All right, we are back here with my friend Deontay Lee. We are talking panic index. We're putting teams into one of three categories, okay? The three categories are settle down. Category two is they have a chance. And category three is panic. So I don't need to explain those to you. You are a mature, knowledgeable audience. You know what each three of those means. Deontay, let's start with the Ravens here. So ugly loss, Thanksgiving night, five turnovers. Based on EPA per drive, it was their worst offensive game that Lamar Jackson has ever started in his career. And so they won five in a row and you're like, all right, this is what we thought.

3:30Diante Lee:They're back in the driver's seat. I don't know that they figured anything out. So where are you with the Ravens right now? I'm so glad that we're having this conversation today and not on Thursday night because Thursday night, I would have been ready to punt this team right out of the race altogether. Right. I think that given some time, you kind of go and rewatch and then you start looking at just what the rest of the season can look like for this team. This is probably the one team that we're talking about today where I feel like we can say settle down because they still have control over their destiny.

4:00That is the argument. Right. The argument you're making is you show up on Sunday, you beat the Steelers. Boom. Your season has been made and all you've got to do now is drive straight the rest of the way. They can really split these games with the Steelers, and depending on how Pittsburgh plays the rest of the way, can still end up winning the division. I think that in the aftermath of Thursday's game, when you're looking at the turnovers and the lack of accuracy from Lamar Jackson on third down and in those key passing situations, and then you're comparing that to Joe Burrow, who was just the definition of a sheriff at quarterback.

4:33That was probably his most Peyton Manning-esque type of performance, where he's sitting in the pocket. and he knows where all the blitzes are coming from. He knows the coverages. He's throwing the ball perfectly. It was a very stark contrast between the two teams. I do feel, though, if you're Baltimore, you take your lumps. You've got a mini bye. You've got some time to kind of wash this one off. Pittsburgh right now is playing probably as badly as any team that is currently still in the playoff picture. And you've got to just feel like, let's beat them. We get a chance to rematch Cincinnati. We can go get this right in two weeks.

5:03And then they have the Patriots, which I think, if you're just looking at the depth chart, they're a more talented team than we could very much be looking up, you know, after Christmas weekend when they've got the Packers and see a team that's kind of got this thing sewn up if they handle their business, right? The big thing is, do you trust that if in the hypothetical?

5:20Diante Lee:That's what I was going to say, because the Ravens are about expectations. Like I'm with you. If it's about making the playoffs, I'm probably with you. Settle down doesn't mean they're definitely going to get in, but they're in good position to get into the playoffs. But if it's like a limp into the playoffs and losing the wild card round or even losing the divisional round where you never really felt like they were a contender, that's not going to be looked at as a positive season for the Ravens. And you're going to be asking yourself what kind of changes are coming in the offseason and just offensively, even with Lamar Jackson healthy, I was looking at the numbers today, like this has been a mediocre offense all season long.

5:56Diante Lee:And I think coming into the year, everyone thought top three offense, they were the best offense in the NFL last year. They've got it figured out Todd Munkin and it's just never really happened either earlier in the season or now that Lamar Jackson has gotten back here I think a lot of it when you just look at the numbers is with the run game the run game has not been nearly as it has as good as it has been in previous years and I was thinking about this Deontay like it would be so frustrating for me if I were in Lamar Jackson's shoes or even someone else in that organization where timing is so unfair in professional sports.

6:28Diante Lee:And it's like, if this were the 2024 or the 2023 Ravens this year, we are probably, everybody's picking them to go to the Superbowl and probably win the Superbowl with the state of the league right now. And you look at the landscape in the AFC, we'd be saying, oh, you can win. Lamar's playing like an MVP. Their run game's great. They can win. They figured out their defense. They can win with special teams, all this stuff. And it's like, this happens to be the year where they can't really hang their hat on all those things. Maybe they'll figure out, but they kind of just look mediocre in every area.

7:01Diante Lee:So to me, it's not about the playoffs. Do you have a scenario where you feel like five weeks from now, we're just talking about them differently and we're saying they figure things out and they look more like last year's team, or are you like, that is probably not going to happen this year? I mean, if you're really just judging how you feel exiting every weekend, I haven't had a week all year where I felt like Baltimore is definitely the team. It was like week one was that year, even though they lost. I mean, the first three and a half quarters of week one is probably the closest that they've been to looking like that version of this team.

7:32And I would say that ever since that loss to the Lions on Monday night, like this team has just been kind of flailing to try to keep its head above water. Injuries have obviously played a part. And I would say if you're comparing them to a team like Buffalo, who I think is in a similar position, right? If we're talking about the bills from the last two to three seasons in this version of the AFC, you're like, oh, my gosh, finally, we've got the shot to get over it. We can make good for, you know, the wasted years of Thurman Thomas and, you know, Jim Kelly and all of that. Right. Like you should feel you would be feeling great under those circumstances right now, though.

8:07I mean, these teams have just been so flawed. And I think it's possible if you're a Ravens fan to kind of squint your eyes and say, hey, if we win the division, we host maybe we host Buffalo, maybe we host Indianapolis. We should feel like talent for talent. If our quarterback is healthy, we can win at home. And then let's say, you know, you're the four seed and you've got to go see New England or even if it's Denver on the road, you should feel like we've got the quarterback advantage. All we've got to do is get the right breaks. The issue was that those breaks have just never come right. Like I'm a big believer that variance matters in football, but you have to demonstrate that you have some kind of skill to create that variance, to get that variance to tip in your favor.

8:46And this is not the only team we're going to talk about in this light, right? Because I think that Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, or a lot of other teams in the NFL as well that kind of fit that criteria. But when I watch Baltimore, you just don't see the hallmark of a true Super Bowl contending team. They don't crush you up front the way that they used to. They're not forcing turnovers. They've had accuracy issues in the passing game. Even when Lamar was healthy, he has not looked at his best, especially not compared to 2023 and 2024. And it does just feel like this team is going to limp in. Maybe you get the worst AFC South team in the playoffs and you eat by.

9:20But if I've actually got to take what we're seeing on the field and go take that to Denver, go take that to Indianapolis, go take that to Buffalo, I don't trust that this team is going to get it done actually on the field against those teams, even though I think they're just as talented, if not more so than the teams that we're talking about right now.

9:37Diante Lee:So that's the bull case, I think. Okay, so if you're a Ravens fan and you're like, come on, give me something here. You still have the quarterback, granted, like I'm with Deontay. He doesn't look like the same guy and he's coming back from injury. So that all has to be taken into account. But there is still five weeks of the regular season where maybe we're saying in week 18, hey, he's looked different the past two or three weeks and he looks like normal Lamar here. So you've got that. You've got the talent on defense. here's what you want to be the Ravens this is your destiny this year the team that nobody wants to play it is a weird season you might not have Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs you probably won't have Joe Burrow in the playoffs like Deontay said that Bills team with Josh Allen is not his best Bills team you're not talking about having to go through all these different quarterbacks to get to the mountaintop like you're probably going to have to do in future years like you've had to do in previous years so can you figure some things out John Harbaugh now like you got But defensively, you got to get that defense to be playing well offensively.

10:35Diante Lee:What's not working? Why does Lamar Jackson not look like the same guy? If the run game is not going to be the same, what can you lean on instead? So they've got talent. They've got the quarterback. That's where that's like where they want to be. So I'm putting them in the they have a chance category if it plays out like that. Because I do think they're going to get in. You think they're going to get in. It's not guaranteed, but they're minus 210 right now to win the division. So they're favorites to win the AFC North. but it's not a matter of get in and disappoint. It's a matter of can you get in and actually maybe be a surprise team and change the narrative on the 2025 Ravens.

11:09Diante Lee:All right, so that's the first team. Next team is the team that's fighting them, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Deontay, they lose to the Bills on Sunday. According to Mike DeFabo of The Athletic, there were fire Tomlin chants in the stands. It didn't sound like one or two people because Tomlin was asked about it after the game, And you usually don't ask that if it's just, you know, a couple, a couple of guys, what are they trying? I don't even know. It's not rolling rocks anymore. Sorry. I don't know what they're drinking, but I apologize, Pittsburgh. I don't know what you're drinking. Uh, maybe it is rolling rocks still, uh, in Pittsburgh, but if it was a couple of guys, they wouldn't ask him.

11:44Diante Lee:Tomlin said he shares the fans frustrations. You got Aaron Rogers with the bloody nose, Matt, John Smith. Uh, you have 10 total first downs, 166 yards against the bills defense that has really struggled. and now all of a sudden you're 6-6 in the AFC North, where on paper, if you just showed me the standings, you're tied for first place. But we know it goes beyond that. So where are you, Deontay, with this Steelers team? You'd have to say it's a disaster right now. I'm panicked, yeah, full panicked. You would have to be full-on panic, right? And it all comes down to this question, which I don't think any Steelers fan can answer with a straight face.

12:21What does this team actually do well right now?

12:24Diante Lee:I wrote down the same thing. I literally have in my notes, they don't do anything well. Like you're leaning on, you're going to say that your biggest skill is forcing turnovers. Congratulations. You're the fakest over 500. You're the fakest 500 or over 500 team in the league. If that's all that you have to lean on, right? We just saw the Panthers beat the Rams because they won the turnover margin 3-0. Nobody believes that the Carolina Panthers are within a field goals margin of Los Angeles if it's an evenly played game. And I think that Pittsburgh has often been able to skate by on the fact that, hey, we forced turnovers, we're going to manage possessions.

12:58And I will say the one thing that they've done well offensively is they pay off their trips to the red zone with touchdowns more often than not. Right. That has kind of been their saving grace offensively. But outside of that, they don't get any explosive plays. And when Aaron Rodgers gets pressured this year, I would say you make an argument. While I think the end results have been better, the way he looks in the pocket now is as bad as he did in the first half of last season before it seemed like he kind of caught a rhythm and everybody got fired in New York he still is having those same kind of jittery reactions to pressure that inability to shake loose of pressure because he's not as explosive of an athlete anymore and they just don't have enough juice on the perimeter to help them get over the top if this team had gone and gotten a Jacoby Myers not that he's a world changer but just one other guy who can work the middle of the field that's just athletic enough to be able to move the chains for them.

13:47Maybe I would say they've still got a chance, but you try to carve out this pathway for them offensively. It is going to be a slog for them to score more than 19 to 20 points in any game for the rest of the year. And I just don't trust a team to win consistently if that is the metric that we're going by.

14:04Diante Lee:Yeah, they've lost three or four. They're at Baltimore next week. So listen, we just talked about the Ravens. The Ravens are beatable. We're not going to be shocked if the Steelers beat the Ravens next week. And if you do that, you're going to have a chance. Even if you don't do that, you're still going to have a chance. But again, it comes back to what you said, mediocre on offense, mediocre on defense. Maybe you say they can run the ball. Well, all right. I think, you know, it depends on the week or the possession or the opponent, whether you can actually do that. It's like a Mickey Mouse scheme on offense.

14:34Diante Lee:You know, it's just, all right, let's throw the ball short and not turn it over type thing. Defense. I look at the depth chart and I go, that's a front seven I can win with. it hasn't shown up. It just hasn't shown up consistently. You had that game against the Colts earlier this season where you're like, all right, that's what it's supposed to look like. That's the only time. I mean, you had TJ Watt, Nate Herbig, Highsmith, Cam Hayward, they all played on Sunday and they had a combined zero quarterback hits or sacks. As a team, the Steelers had one hit on Josh Allen. In a game where the Bills don't have Deion Dawkins.

15:07They are fresh off of getting their headscaped in by Houston on Thursday night football. So if there was ever a time for these guys who have been licking their chops, I mean, the Steelers should have been in practice all week saying, please, God, just get us to obvious passing situations. And we are going to win this game with our pass rush alone. And it never really felt like Josh Allen was affected. He turned the ball over, but it wasn't really because of the pass rush. It was just because of poorly thrown balls and kind of like some inopportune timing for Buffalo. You don't feel Pittsburgh's effect up front on either side of the ball.

15:39and the guy who was supposed to paper over all of this, the two guys really is Aaron Rodgers, who looks like he's 41 and probably should retire at the end of the year. And Mike Tomlin, which is why you're hearing those fired Tomlin chants in the crowd when things are going poorly. I wouldn't have called them foolish at almost any other point for saying that in the stands, given all the success that Mike has had with this team. But I mean, you're looking now and asking your head coach, what winning edge are you producing for this franchise? You're really running out of answers right now. the defense is going to continue looking on a down to down basis the way that it has.

16:13Diante Lee:Well, that's the thing. It feels like a repeat of last year with the defense. Remember, we were having these conversations about what's going on. There's some weird quotes coming out of that locker room. They can't stop the run. I mean, they couldn't stop the run against the Bills. This is TJ Watt per The Athletic said, I've never seen a team run the same play as much as they ran it and have as much success as they had out of words for it. Like, that's a pretty troubling quote at this stage of the season from a veteran like TJ Watt. So I don't have a lot of faith. Now, here's how they make it.

16:42Diante Lee:So little BS Tomlin ball, you know, little turnovers, special teams. And then maybe they sneak in and they lose in the first round. But it's just I'm tired of this. Like I need a Tomlin coaching trade, Deontay. Like I need air right now. I need this in the offseason. I can't do this again. Another year of, well, they kept him and they're adding them. Roger. No, it's been a great run. Every coaching relationship. I was going to say every relationship, but that's not right. Not every relationship comes to an end. Every coaching relationship comes to an end. And there's no path going forward with this.

17:17Diante Lee:It's been a great run. Get together. Say thank you to everyone involved. You'll have people saying they're not going to do better than Tomlin. And it's probably going to be true. But that doesn't mean you just stick with him and keep going. I see New York and maybe Miami and Tennessee. Let's get a little rejuvenated. I want to read a rejuvenated Tomlin story. in the off season in August that he just needed a change of scenery. And he's doing all these things differently. And he's hiring from this coaching tree and this coaching tree, which he never did before. And let's have another, you know, a lot of great coaches.

17:50Diante Lee:They have another, a second chapter. And sometimes it's a great chapter. Andy Reid, it's his second chapter right now. Maybe he's a second chapter and the Steelers, you take a step back and say, all right, let's think about what we want to do next. We're a stable organization and let's build this thing the right way. I love the optimism. Because I'm looking at the present day and I'm looking at the Steers and I'm saying this is a team that is teaming to lose to Miami in a couple of weeks. To be fresh off of a loss to Baltimore, get the Dolphins in a game where you should feel like by identity and by the way these two teams are built, Pittsburgh should dominate that game from wire to wire.

18:25And we're going to look up and say, how did Devon HN go for 230 yards on the ground and three touchdowns? How did Tua Tagovailoa throw for 300 yards and a touchdown? that's what it feels like this team is heading towards unless they're able to genuinely live on the luck that is gained by forcing those turnovers getting the ball on short fields and not having to ask this offense to really do any heavy lifting at all this is not a recipe for contention I think that for me maybe spiritually when we talk about the playoff field this is probably the one team maybe outside of San Francisco that can make the playoffs that I look at and I'm like this this is this is what bringing in the seventh seed has done to us is that now we've got to add teams like this to kind of be cannon fodder for the top seeds in the AFC and the NFC.

19:10I just don't see it with Pittsburgh and I don't see based on style of play them really being able to turn this around.

19:15Diante Lee:Yeah, I'm with you. All right. Well, so we're both panicking about the Steelers. Let's see if we're right or wrong. All right, let's take a break. We come back and we talk about the Eagles. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas, and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there. I just have to click, click. They know I'm not paying for shipping. I'm going to that Prime link, can order it. It shows up at the door.

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20:40Diante Lee:We are back on the Ringer NFL show. Last team here, the Philadelphia Eagles, who are coming off an embarrassing Friday loss to the Chicago Bears. Still in the driver's seat in the NFC East. Again, another team where if you just look at the standings, you go, it's not so bad. But then you watch them and you go, ooh. And actually might be very bad, Deontay. So where are you? I've been dying to get your take here. Where are you with this Philadelphia Eagles team right now? You know, Shio, I kind of want to pose it this way. I'll make an analogy. I don't know if the gifted and talented program existed in primary education when you were in school.