NFL Season Preview and Super Bowl Predictions!

17:29Tom Pelissero:Your shirt here adds up.

17:31Sheil Kapadia:Your shirt adds up to 272 and 272. I would need to see this math, too. Yeah, I'm a little curious here. I have in the AFC a three-win team, a two-win team, another three-win team, a four-win team. There's a lot of bad teams in the AFC when you go week by week in the schedule. And by the way, here's the shocking part about the Bengals 14-3 also. I have them losing to Tampa Bay to start the season. So they're starting 0-1. And then they're just going to go on a run the rest of the year. 14-2 the rest of the way.

17:57Tom Pelissero:Let's try to find some losses. How about the AFC South, Sheel? Who do you got winning the AFC South? All right, I think I'm going chalk here. I believe they're the favorites. I've got the Houston Texans. I think if you're looking for a team that can be some version of last year's Seahawks or some version of the 2024 Eagles, I think the Texans could fit that category. You know, they've won between 10 and 12 games, three straight seasons. I think they have the best defense in the NFL. You know, certainly, I think even if you're not as high on them as I am, I think you would say top five, somewhere in that range.

18:32So I think the defense is going to be terrific and it's just going to keep them in a lot of games. Now, I can't get to like, I don't know if Billy's going to have them at 15 and two or 16 and one, I don't know. But I can't get them to a higher ceiling because I don't understand why I'm supposed to feel differently about this offense this year. I think some people are predicting them to make this big leap on offense. And I'm just like, I still have questions about the offensive line. I like the quarterback, but I still have questions about the quarterback. I just don't see the reason. It's not like they have a new play caller or something, why I'm supposed to believe this is the year that they're finally going to have a great offense because that just hasn't been the case over the last three years.

19:10So I think they're a very good team. I don't think they're going to make that unbelievable leap to where they're the number one seed, but I do have them in this division. Billy, AFC South, what do you got?

19:21Sheil Kapadia:I have the Jaguars winning the AFC South. I have the Texans finishing second. I have the Texans only going nine and eight. And you mentioned it. Their strength has been their defense the past couple years. But we saw kind of a trend with their OC who took over where they stall out in the red zone. And that's kind of been his MO year after year is they can kind of get things going. And as soon as they get to the red zone, that's when things kind of stall out for them. And they don't really get the points that they need. Here's the thing. I'm wondering if this is going to be the year that we finally see kind of like a return of CJ Stroud to his rookie season.

19:59Sheil Kapadia:And I saw that they were trying to sign him to a long-term deal. He passed up on that. It was going to be$50 million annually, unless, Tom, you're hearing differently. I was going to say, this is a time for what's Tom hearing, Billy. You don't have to say, I saw this.

20:11Tom Pelissero:They've had a lot of ongoing discussions. I don't know that anything is over at this point. You know, we'll see. I mean, week one is the cutoff. I mean, that's for the Texans. That's where it would cut off. And we still got another 10 days as we record this till they're kicking off.

20:26Sheil Kapadia:Well, he wanted somewhere in the neighborhood of$60 million, I was reading, which is 10 more than 50. Because what are you going to do in this economy with$50 million a year? You know, that's insane.

20:36Tom Pelissero:We've talked about it, though. The quarterback market next year because of the class of 2023 that's going to be newly extension eligible with Caleb and Jayden Daniels, Drake May, Bo Nix, Lamar being up for another contract, Baker Mayfield being a free agent. Like what we think of now is 60 could be 70 next year. So if you're C.J. Stroud, I mean, think of it this way, too. C.J. Stroud finished on as bad of a note as you possibly could last year. I mean, the playoff game, the fumbles was abysmal. But from like October through going into the playoffs, he was playing pretty good football. He's been that guy.

21:11Tom Pelissero:It ended on a bad note. But in other words, if that's your low note and this negotiation is happening, coming off of the worst performance you could possibly have. Imagine if he just sustains normal CJ Stroud through the course of the season, and then is that much closer to getting a deal on the open market. I mean, I certainly could see the argument for it. I understand where the Texans might want more information. But if you're Stroud and you're willing to roll the dice, I mean, you made a lot of money already as the number two overall pick. You may think, I'm going to play better than that.

21:39Tom Pelissero:I've never played worse than that in my life. I'm going to put better stuff than that playoff game on tape. Let's see where that takes me. It's sort of like the Dak Prescott lesson, right? I mean, it's just like, you know, obviously there's always the risk. And it's easy for me to say, it's not my money. If someone was offering me$50 million, I might be like, I'm just going to go ahead and take that. But if you're really like zooming out and are like, how can I maximize all my earnings in my NFL career? And you're a quarterback in your mid-20s who is at least average. And I think we can say CJ Stroud clears that bar.

22:10It's like, all right, I'm just going to wait. Like Tom said, the price only goes up if you wait. You can get franchise tag multiple times. Cool. And then I'll hit the open market after that. I won't even be 30 years old. It's like you could actually make more money doing it that way. Now, again, I understand there are different variables for every player and everyone's situation is different, but it's really not a bad way to go. I know it sounds crazy for me to say, I turned down$50 million. That's a smart thing to do. But there actually is reason to it.

22:40Tom Pelissero:Kirk Cousins, back when he got a three-year$84 million contract, he doesn't get that if he doesn't play it out through the tag. You know, Dak Prescott's a great example. He gets the$60 million. He tears up his ankle, as you remember, suffers a gruesome injury, and then still gets the deal. So if you're a good enough player, particularly at that position, if you're comfortable with the risk, I mean, that's always the key to me. Listen, if you want to protect your downside, get the most money you possibly can now, I will never fault anyone for that. If you're like, I'm willing to play this thing out, and from everything I've been told consistently, C.J.

23:08Tom Pelissero:Stroud is absolutely willing to play it out. Good for you. You're taking the risk on yourself. That's why guys get insurance policies and things like that. There's a lot of different factors. It's a cash flow position. If you're able to get enough cash now, over time, it can benefit you to take the better deal. But if you're nowhere close and you think next year on the market, I'd be getting 10 or 20 million more per year than making whatever CJ's making this year, like$3 million in the fourth year of his rookie contract, it may be worth the risk. And it seems like that's the calculation right now.

23:37Sheil Kapadia:This is a bigger picture question, but is there a bubble? Like, is there a point where it's going to be like, But it's just too much. Like, we can't be paying quarterbacks$80 million a year realistically. And things will kind of shift down. You'll say, you know what? I could get a C.J. Stroud for$60 million. Or I could get a Baker or find like a Reclamation Project, a Sam Darnold, something like that. I could get him for like$30 million. And what's the big difference there?

24:00Tom Pelissero:Well, and that already exists, too. Like, there's a clear demarcation. If you look at the top-paid quarterbacks, there's 16 guys who have like legit franchise quarterback deals. Number 16 is Baker Mayfield. Is that like$33 million? Then there's just this huge drop-off to like the Geno Smiths and Justin Fields, which are around like$20 a year. And those are just like clearly bridge contracts. Obviously, Fields is already on to a new team. But there is that gap there. And if you fall down the gap, let's say Baker Mayfield had the opportunity to turn the deal down. His first year in Tampa, he went there for one year and$5 million.

24:34Tom Pelissero:He plays well, gets a three-year$100 million deal. Now Baker's in the same spot. Why in the world am I going to take whatever the number is, $50 million a year, when I can get to free agency, get that much closer, and I'm going to cash in? Yes, there is a bubble. And if you look, I mean, look at the guys that are playing for the minimum this year. Tua Tugabaloa is making$51 million to play for a million bucks for Atlanta. Kyler Murray is making like$36 million from the Cardinals to play for a million dollars in Minnesota. Those teams would go back in time and regret it. If you're convicted this is your guy, get it done.

25:06Tom Pelissero:If you're on the fence, of course. I mean, there's a reason that teams, Carolina with Bryce Young, like, yeah, the arrow's pointing up. We might want a little bit more information before we commit the type of money that is going to have significant effects across the rest of the organization.

25:20Sheil Kapadia:Well, that's what I was going to say. Tua is the largest cautionary tale out of all of them, right? Because the Dolphins were in a position where Mike McDaniel essentially built the offense around Tua and to kind of make up for his shortcomings. And then they had to decide, is this our guy? Is this not our guy? And if this isn't our guy, we essentially have to hit a reset on what we're doing here, which they ultimately did anyways, but they did so after they gave him the long extension. So if you're not sure about CJ Stroud, if he doesn't take the next step, like, yeah, he wants$50 million, he wants$60 million a year.

25:49Sheil Kapadia:But even Baker, where you're saying like he's the line of demarcation at 30 million, Baker's holding out because Baker wants$50 million a year. So when does the money dry up, I guess?

25:59Tom Pelissero:And this may be that pivot point where you have all these guys who are up for new contract extensions. And there's different ways you can look at the market. I mean, Josh Allen, so it's six years, 330 million. It's a two-year,$200 million extension. So if you want to compare new money versus what's a tear up, there's all kinds of ways that you can spin the numbers. The bottom line is the cap continues to grow. And if you were pegging percentage of the cap and what that should be, the cap keeps going up. So the quarterback money should continue to go up as well. And that's one of the reasons that some of these negotiations move a little bit slower.

26:31That's right. The TV deals are not getting cheaper. The owners are not making less money. So I just want to point out to the audiences. Second recent episode where Billy has come out pro-owner, you know, let the owners make more money. They shouldn't have to pay these quarterbacks all this money. I just want to go on the record that does not reflect the entire views of the Ringer NFL show. I don't know where Tom comes down on it, but I believe that the players should get their fair value.

26:55Tom Pelissero:The collective bargaining agreement is a revenue sharing document. The players get 48 % end change of every dollar across three major buckets. And so when the salary cap goes up, people could say the owners are making so much money. Right. But the players are getting 48 % of that. That's why you're seeing this enormous cap growth. That's why 12 years ago, Aaron Rodgers was the highest paid quarterback in the NFL. At$22 million a year, the market has tripled, if not more, depending on how you slice it in that period of time. All right, so Sheil had the Texans in the AFC South. Billy had the Jags.

27:27Tom Pelissero:First disagreement here. Let's go to maybe the most interesting division in that conference. The AFC West. Sheil, which way are you going? This, I think, is the hardest division in either conference to predict. I have changed my mind roughly 700 times in the last three months. And last week, I sat down and I said, all right, if your life depended on it, which team would you pick? I know it's dark. That's crazy. Listen, in the prediction game, Billy, you go to a dark place sometimes. That's a bad situation to be in. The gun is to your head. Is it the Chargers or the Broncos or the Chiefs?

28:05Sheil Kapadia:Are you being sequestered? Is someone holding you against your will or what's happening here? I tried to strike a little fear into my heart there and say, all right, you have to make a decision. And when I got into that framing, again, very dark place, I got the Chargers out of there pretty quickly. I'm like, there's no chance. My life's on the line. There's no chance. I'm going to be like, oh, yeah, it's going to happen for the Chargers this year. So then it came down to the Chiefs and the Broncos. And I came down to, do I want to pick the team that I think has the best roster, which would be the Denver Broncos?

28:36or do I want to pick the team that I think has the best quarterback? And I went back and forth because you could say the last two years, you know, Seahawks, Eagles, it was really the best roster is what won them the Super Bowl. But I said, sure, that's a sample of two. You got to go back further. You were watching these quarterbacks as a little kid. And I ultimately landed on the Kansas City Chiefs and I did it. I can't tell you I felt great about it. I've got the Chiefs at 11 and six. Obviously, the case is Patrick Mahomes. Can they have a top 10 offensive line? They can. It's not guaranteed, but they can have a top 10 offensive line.

29:11And then defensively, I'm putting my faith in Spags that he's going to develop these young players, that he's going to get them to a level where they're good enough. So if you look at last year, Chiefs when Mahomes was healthy, they go six and eight, but they lost seven one-score games. So Patrick Mahomes played 14 games last year and only one team beat them by more than a touchdown. So I think we think of the Chiefs last year, and I'm with everybody who says it. They were boring. Everything felt hard. It felt like it's hard to watch them. Six and 11. I know. I know. I know. But it was like just some bounces weren't going their way that went their way the previous year.

29:47They weren't that different of a team. So I don't have them as a juggernaut, but I've got them at 11 and six just ahead of those other teams.

29:55Sheil Kapadia:Where'd you have the Chargers at? Well, I can't give that away.

29:58Tom Pelissero:We've got to get to the wild card. You've been kind of slowly, if people are actually charting this like I am, you've given away some of your wild cards. Just tell us your division winner. I mean, I'm pretty sure those 13 and four Ravens are slipping in. Well, you never know.

30:12Sheil Kapadia:What if I have the Chiefs winning 15 games? You never know what could happen here. I'm going to tell you this. I do not. Okay. By the way, Spags, is he ever going to get a shot again at head coaching or do we think that that was kind of like that was it? Because he seems interested, but it doesn't seem like it ever really goes to a serious place with these interviews for him.

30:31Tom Pelissero:If Todd Monken turns around the Browns, it's kind of like when Bruce Arians went at 60 years old to Arizona and all of a sudden was like, hey, we should try hiring these older coaches. And that's where he saw the Vic Fangios of the world get a job. Spags is late 60s, I think, at this point. I mean, he's a fantastic guy. He's a great football coach. You could do a lot worse than Steve Spagnuolo. But yeah, he's had the interview or two every year. And it's just, it's hard. If you are an older defensive coach in a league that wants to hire young offensive coaches, it's two tough strikes against you.

31:03Sheil Kapadia:Yeah, he's 66, and if his future lies in the hands of Todd Monken and the Browns this year, I don't think that he's looking very good for his prospects. AFC West, Billy.

31:13Tom Pelissero:Come on.

31:14Sheil Kapadia:AFC West. One game separates three teams in the AFC West and separates potentially a division champion and a team possibly missing the playoffs. I have, like Sheil, the Kansas City Chiefs winning the West at 10-7. And I think that it comes down to one game in week six between the Chiefs and the Chargers. And the Chiefs are coming off of a bye. They have a seven-day rest. And that might be the difference between it because there may be a tie at the top of the AFC West there. And then you start going down to the tiebreakers. And that's how it was decided, unfortunately, for the Chargers here I have the Chiefs edging out the Chargers winning the AFC West.

31:58Sheil Kapadia:And we didn't really talk about it, Roshu. You didn't mention it. It's the return of Eric Biennemi. Could Eric Biennemi kind of light a spark in these guys, go back to the good old days and say, you know what, we're the Kansas City Chiefs. We were the greatest team for this short stretch of time, four or five years here. You could have a Tyreek Hill, whatever's left of Tyreek Hill, come in like a week 10 when he's finally recovered and he can walk again. He says he can't, maybe spark something. I think the Chiefs just edge out the Chargers and win the division.

32:27Tom Pelissero:I think it was telling the reaction of players all the way up to Travis Kelsey when Eric Biennemi was back and the genuine excitement the guys conveyed. You remember when the Chiefs season was getting a little bit weird? And at one point, Andy Reid like chest bumped Travis Kelsey like they were getting into it. Not like a happy chest bump, but like, hey, get your stuff together type of a thing. That's not Andy. Andy's not like the enforcer type of coach. Of course, yeah, he wants discipline and all those things. But on every staff in the league, there's one or more coaches who are kind of the guy who like, all right, if you've got the really positive coach, they're going to be the guy who's going to be the enforcer.

33:05Tom Pelissero:If you've got the head coach that's the enforcer, which not many teams do, you've got the other coaches who are kind of in that other role. The balance seemed to get a little bit off here, and that's what seemed to be recognized. And Kelsey referenced this among others, was just he brings back that energy and that discipline. Eric P. Nami's a good football coach. It was the right time, I think, for everyone, honestly, for him to move on. Obviously, Andy had some other people that he wanted to keep and promote. Eric wanted a chance to go call plays somewhere. He took it in Washington, shot his shot.

33:34Tom Pelissero:It just didn't work out in the last year there with Ron Rivera. And so then he kind of ends up on this little bit of a weird journey where he's in UCLA. Then he's last year in Chicago. The main reason you could spot him on the sidelines, he's got this gigantic gray beard at the time. And now he's back in Kansas City where he's really, really valued. I tend to be with you guys just in terms of the Chiefs being back. I've heard all the arguments of like, well, you're just basing that on Mahomes. Yeah, he might be the greatest player I've ever seen in my lifetime. Last year, it seemed like from the moment that Kelsey collides with Xavier Worthy, like four plays into that game in Brazil, the whole season went sideways.

34:13Tom Pelissero:The focus of that game plan was worthy. They had to scrap it on the opening drive. It never gained that momentum, and that just kind of set that tone. The whole country's watching. It just created this weird environment around a team that had been to three straight Super Bowls. You couple that with them getting wiped off the field by the Eagles in the previous Super Bowl, everyone's like, how are they going to bounce back? It looks bad in the opening game, and it just seemed to see this idea that they weren't going to get there. And if you think that locker rooms are immune to those things, you're wrong.

34:41Tom Pelissero:Everybody hears the questions that they're asked. Everybody reads things on social media. It just felt like the Kansas City season got off the rails within four snaps of the opening game. I don't think that happens twice. I don't think a Patrick Mahomes-led team goes 6-11 twice in a row. I'd be surprised if they're not back in the playoffs. They are in a really tough division and one that both of you guys just picked the Chiefs to win it. Real quick here, we need AFC wildcards as well. We'll get to the championship and how we go in the playoffs from here. But first, I need your three AFC wildcards.

35:15Yeah, I've got the Ravens as my first wildcard. I actually have them finishing with the same record as the Bengals 11-6, but I've got the Bengals winning the tiebreak. They just win a lot of games when Lamar Jackson's on the field. And Tom, you were talking about change sometimes being a good thing. The Ravens scream that out to me, that it's just like they needed a new voice. And I think Jesse Minter, the early signs are pretty encouraging. I don't love the roster, but I think they're going to have a good defense. And I think the offense is going to be good enough. The schedule is not that hard where they go 11 and six.

35:47So I've got that as one. My next two are both coming from that AFC West. I've got the Broncos and the Chargers getting in both at 10 and seven. Broncos, we know what the deal is. They've got a great roster. Do they have a high ceiling? Can they fight off some of the regression from last year when they were nine and two in one score games. We'll see. But I just, Sean Payton, great roster. I think they're going to be fine. And then the Chargers to me are one of the most interesting teams in the NFL where I see a scenario where we're in week nine and we're just like, the story of the season is that this offense is just taking the league by storm.

36:26Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel, everybody loves it. Harbaugh's won 11 plus games in five of six seasons. So I have questions about the interior offensive line. I have questions about the pass rush. I have questions about losing Jesse Minter. That's why I don't have them winning the division. But I'm with Billy, and then I think those three teams in the AFC West are pretty bunched together. So I've got the Chiefs winning the division, but the Chargers and Broncos also getting in.

36:52Tom Pelissero:All right, Billy, you got the Ravens in. We know. But you got that one. Skip that one. Yeah.

36:56Sheil Kapadia:Well, no. So I have the AFC West. I think we're all kind of agreeing is going to be a three-team rock fight, right? Like, it's going to be the three of them beating each other up, and it's going to come down to a win here, a win there, health, and then tiebreakers, essentially, as to how many teams make it to the playoffs from the AFC West. So, as you pointed out, I have the Ravens making it as a wild card. They're going to be my top wild card team at 13-4. I then have the Patriots making the playoffs at 12-5. And then I have the Chargers as my final wild card team at 10-7. So, Shield, you don't have the Patriots, you don't have the Jaguars making it, correct?

37:32Sheil Kapadia:Unless I misunderstood. understood. That's correct. It's my boldest take is probably the Patriots are nine and eight and miss out on the playoffs. I feel like I'm on an Island there and I could be completely wrong. If Drake may and AJ Brown just go score stir. I just look at everything from last year, from the strength of schedule to the scores, uh, the, the record in one score games to the Mike Rabel off the field stuff to, they had the best injury luck in the NFL. I still think they're a very good team. I believe in May. I believe in AJ Brown. Everything else I'm not so sure of. And I just think some of those random things that happen throughout the course of an NFL season, those might go against them this year where they're a good team, but they take a little bit of a step back.

38:13Sheil Kapadia:Do you guys actually believe that the variable offseason stuff is going to play any factor in the season at all? Because I find it hard to believe. I feel like he kind of was embroiled in the scandal. It was a slow off season. It was a juicy story. It made, you know, People Magazine and Us Weekly and all of that. So it kind of stayed out there. You know, my wife, who doesn't necessarily care that much about football, has asked me like, hey, did you hear this story? Did you read this story? So like it became a pop culture story, right? And it kind of got away from everything. But I feel like once kickoff happens, game one next week, even before the Patriots play, we had Wednesday, we have opening night.

38:50Sheil Kapadia:That's kind of on the back burner And no one's really going to be caring that much about that story, except that one guy on Twitter who's made it like his life's goal to get to the bottom of this situation. I'm so glad I don't even know who you're talking about. See, I'm touching grass, so I don't even know who you're talking about. Yeah.

39:05Tom Pelissero:I would just say this. Everything I've heard behind the scenes is that Rabel has been, after that initial wave of things, which you would imagine that that's hard on anybody, has been normal and the environment's been normal. The only way that that really changes is if there's some new revelation, some new development, some new photograph, and then it yields an entirely new round of questions. I'm sure he'll hear it from every fan base, and there'll be people who might sneak in a sign or two about various things starting out in week one in Seattle. But beyond that, I don't believe that it has an impact.

39:39Tom Pelissero:You just don't know. And we saw it as it played out through the entire spring. Every time there was this drip drop of information or photos or reports, it brought up a new round of questions, new things that everyone in the organization, not just Vrabel, had to answer for. Absent that, I don't anticipate it has a huge impact on this Patriots team. No Steelers, by the way, a playoff team from a year ago. Neither do you put the Steelers in the playoffs. Nobody put the Colts in the playoffs. the team that was 7-1 before all the injuries hit, including Daniel Jones breaking his leg and then suffering the torn Achilles.

40:16Tom Pelissero:A lot to take in.

40:18Sheil Kapadia:How did science change where Achilles injuries all of a sudden you just bounce back from in six months over the last four years?

40:25Tom Pelissero:You can bounce back. The question is how quickly will you be effective? We saw Aaron Rodgers played the following year. Kirk Cousins played the following year. Neither guy looked like themselves. sometimes you know Daniel Jones is younger than either of those players when they suffered their Achilles injuries so you would think that his recovery would be a little bit faster but no absolutely I mean if we think that Daniel Jones is going to come out and be absolutely 100 % Daniel Jones in week one that might be a little bit of wishful thinking but they say that he's at every single target Colts hope to run it back from where they were a year ago I'll get to the NFC projections now.

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41:36Sheil Kapadia:Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. The perfect lunch combo. That first bite of your favorite sub, followed by ice cold Pepsi.

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42:35Tom Pelissero:As much as we can look at the Super Bowl odds and we can say the Rams are plus 500 and they're everybody's darling, I would venture to say that this is going to be a very compelling year on this side. We'll save the West for the end because I am very interested in which way you guys go on that. Let's start out prediction. Shield, who wins the NFC East? Yeah, I'm going with a little bit of the Homer pick, I guess, making sure my neighbors don't yell at me and throw trash at my house and all those things. So I've got the Philadelphia Eagles at 11 and six. It comes down to I think this is a top five roster in the NFL.

43:11I think this is a top five defense in the NFL just based on talent. And then you add in Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. And to me, the Eagles ceiling really comes down to is their offensive line back. I think last year was a step back. Guys were injured. If they can bounce back this year and have a good run game and a good offensive line, and then you pair that with the new coordinator, Sean Mannion, with Jalen Hurts. I think their ceiling's pretty high, but I think the floor is pretty high just based on the talent and the defense. So yeah, I got the Eagles here at 11 and six.

43:45Sheil Kapadia:I have one game separating first from second place. And I have the Eagles also winning the NFC East. There's going to be certain games on the schedule there where you look at, you circle that, and you say this is the one that's going to decide it. I'm interested though, Shield, and I guess we'll get to it and maybe not, but it came down to two teams for me. And one of them we talked about this offseason a lot where they were walking around and they were saying this is going to be the greatest offense there is. And neither of us think that the Cowboys are going to end up with the greatest offense that there is or that that offense is going to be good enough to win the NFC East.

44:19Yeah, see, I don't know whether to respond now or not, Billy, because Tom gave you the instructions. Stick with the division winner. Yeah, yeah. Then when we get to the wild cards, maybe we discuss now. Billy's the wild card here.

44:29Sheil Kapadia:I don't know what he's going to do. Maybe they're not a wild card for me. Okay, well, I also think that I'm not going to give anything away. I think it's going to be a close race in the NFC East. I don't think either of us think the Giants or the Commanders are going to win the division. There's two teams that this could be between and two teams that are clearly on a different level in the division at the moment. And it probably comes down to, do you trust the Cowboys' defense more to turn it around from last year? Or do you trust the Eagles' offense more to turn it around from last year? Because I think on the other side of the ball for both teams, you probably feel pretty good about where the Cowboys' offense is going and where the Eagles' defense is going.

45:09Tom Pelissero:We all know what the issues were for both those teams last year. For the Eagles, it was the offense just wasn't consistent enough. For the Cowboys, it was the defense couldn't stop anybody amidst the ton of personnel changes they had all season. What did those teams do? The Eagles hired a young, first-time offensive coordinator. The Cowboys hired a young, first-time defensive coordinator who, by the way, came from Vic Fangio's staff in Philadelphia. So really, you're talking about two young guys that both have bright futures in the NFL, Sean Mannion and Christian Parker. who are taking on this massive role in two of the biggest, hardest markets that you're going to possibly have in the spotlight on you from go.

45:47Tom Pelissero:With the Eagles offense, to me, the season boils down to how does Jalen Hurts and this remodeled receiver group adapt to a completely different play style? The timing mechanisms, everything Mannion's going to bring from his experience with Matt LaFleur and Kevin O 'Connell and Sean McVay. What does that look like for a player in Jalen Hurts who's been really good operating in a vertical shot type of an offense. Obviously, a run threat as well. This is more precision and progression-based. I'm just really interested to see how that comes together. NFC North, another one. There's no weak link. You guys just talked about the commanders and the giants.

46:26Tom Pelissero:We can get back to that around wildcard time. But there is no weak link here. There's no team you go into this and say, why can't that team be a playoff team? Shield, who do you got coming out on top in the North? Yeah, you're right. You could pick any of these teams to make it to the playoffs. I've got the Lions, the Detroit Lions, bouncing back 11-6. You look at it last year. It was like the year from hell. They got terrible injury luck. They're firing their coordinator or replacing him with Dan Campbell in the middle of the season after they lost Ben Johnson. And they still went 9-8. It wasn't that bad.

46:59There are teams around the NFL, 9-8. We'll throw a parade. This is fantastic. The Lions, for all teams, a team that when we were growing up, you're like nine and eight, they would have just been celebrating in the streets. They've been on this crazy run of four years where they've had good teams over and over and over again, which they've never had in franchise history. And I still believe this roster is a great roster, a top five roster. I look at the skill talent on offense. I think that offense is going to be really, really good this season. I am concerned about their defense. And Tom, I did want to do a little what's Tom hearing there because you got Brian Branch, you got Kirby Joseph.

47:38Those two are two of their best defensive players. It looks like are going to be out to start the season. You've got Kate Mays, their big center signing in the offseason. He's going to miss time. Like how concerned should I be about some of these Lions injuries as I pick them to win this division?

47:54Tom Pelissero:Isaiah Pacheco, too, was brought in to be kind of the compliment to Jameer Gibbs when they trade away David Montgomery. where he's also on injured reserve. So him and Branch and Kirby Joseph all out at least the first four games of the season. Branch, just based on the nature and the timing of his injury, probably not a surprise he's not back. I would anticipate that he returns before midseason. Then with Kirby Joseph, it's just a matter of, that's been ongoing for a while and he's got an injury that is difficult to manage. We'll see exactly how that plays out. I think it's a talented team. We talk so much about the 49ers injuries.

48:28Tom Pelissero:The Lions have been gutted too. on defense in multiple seasons, and that's created a really high bar. I still think that if you're talking about the playmaking ability that they have on offense with guys like not just Amon Ross St. Brown and Jameer Gibbs, but Jamison Williams has a chance to be a breakout candidate. Sam Laporta coming back is a huge deal. That Detroit offense, and really just from hearing it behind the scenes too, last year got away from them from just like an offensive, not even scheme, because Dan Campbell's got a light influence on the scheme, but personality. They just weren't the same.

49:02Tom Pelissero:John Morton coming back there. It just was not a right fit. He brings in a guy named Drew Petsing, who most recently was the Cardinals offensive coordinator. People can laugh about, well, Arizona's offense was so good. Look what they had last year. They had, they were down to like their fifth running back. They had lost every tight end, not named Trey McBride. You know, Marvin Harrison just didn't have a good year for him. Michael Wilson ends up being a breakout player, but you know, Tyler Murray didn't play. Jacoby Brissett went out there and was like breaking passing records. Drew's a really smart, still young coach.

49:31Tom Pelissero:He interviewed for the Bears head coaching job the same year Ben Johnson got that job. And he comes from a variety of different, he's been exposed to different things. He was in Minnesota for years. He was with Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. I think that he is going to be able to work, along with Mike Kafka, who's also there now as the passing game coordinator. Those two plus Dan Campbell are going to have, and Hank Fraley, the offensive line coach, they're going to put a plan together to get back to playing like the Lions are supposed to play. I think that they needed to do that last year. I mean, you talk about the record 9-8.

50:01Tom Pelissero:If Taylor Decker doesn't get sick before the Christmas game against the Vikings and probably force them to change their game plan, definitely a lot of Brian Flores just to attack the guy who hadn't gotten any reps there all week. Maybe they win that game, and maybe they're still in the playoffs. We're not talking about what happened to the Lions. They had a lot of different circumstances. It's no excuse. I do think they're going to be firmly in the mix here, Billy.

50:23Sheil Kapadia:I have the Lions, Sheila, and I feel like we should have talked about this before. And I have the Lions winning the North. And again, you guys have said it. It's kind of like a... I have it a three-team race. I don't have it a four-team race. I have three teams really and one fourth team that I kind of see a little bit behind the other three teams. I'm kind of going back and forth. And I think that, you know, the NFC North is going to... They're going to benefit this season from the AFC team that they're playing against. They're playing the Jets. They're playing the Panthers. They're playing the Titans.

50:49Sheil Kapadia:They have some easy wins there where you're going to get some high-number wins that might not necessarily indicate how good the teams are because they're kind of getting fat on some of the worse teams in the other conference. I have the Lions going, this is where you're going to make fun of me, 13-4. I have a big bounce-back season for the Lions here. And they also are benefiting from, they have an international game against the Patriots. So that's kind of like a toss-up there. Who's going to win? There's not really a home field advantage. They have a game in division against the Patriots right after their bye week.

51:21Sheil Kapadia:So they have a seven-day rest advantage there. So there's little things here and there at the schedule that I feel like might tip the scale in the Lions' favor and give them a fatter record than they might necessarily deserve. Listen, they went 27-7 over a two-year span very recently. They had a 15-win season. And they had this, like you said, second easiest schedule in the NFL if you just go by Super Bowl odds. So I do think there's an opportunity where if you said, hey, Sheil, the Rams, the Seahawks, they're not going to have the best record in the NFL. Who from that next year do you think could be a surprise and pile up wins?

51:54I think you could have the Eagles in there. I think you could have a couple other teams in there. I think the Lions belong in that conversation.

52:00Tom Pelissero:All right. How about, Sheil, the NFC South? Everyone hold the jokes about who's going to go 8-9 and walk into the playoffs this year. It's been an ongoing thing. I mean, the Bucs have been the team that's been on top in past years. Last year was just kind of a mess. Tampa fell apart at the end. Carolina sneaks in. Who do you got in this division? And what is their record, probably even more importantly? Yeah, I started my NFC South like, you know, all right, who am I going to pick here? Come on, this is the same thing you said. All the jokes. This is disgusting. These teams should be relegated.

52:35Yeah. And then I kept going, Billy, and I said, I like the Tampa Bay Bucs. I'm not like backing into a Tampa Bay Bucs pick. I think they're going to be 10 and seven. I was tempted to have them be better than 10 and seven, but I think they have a top 10 roster in the NFL. The Tampa Bay Bucs go position by position. And if you're someone who believes, Hey, look at the lines of scrimmage. O-line is a top five unit. And the pass rush really has potential. Now they add Ruben Bain in the draft. They get some guys healthy. They hold on to Vita Veya. I like the defensive line as well. And I've never been like the biggest, oh, Baker Mayfield's underrated, give him his respect, all that stuff.

53:12But we've watched him with different coordinators, with different supporting casts, and the offense has been good. Even last year, he's playing through an injury. The offensive line is decimated. Like their offense was mediocre. It wasn't terrible. It didn't fall to like the bottom five in the NFL. So he's playing for that contract, which we've discussed previously. I like this team quite a bit more than the other teams in the NFC South. I've got the Bucs at 10-7.

53:39Sheil Kapadia:Billy? I actually have the Bucs also winning this division. We should have talked about this before, and you could have told me. Billy! I would have talked myself into other teams just to make this more, yeah, embrace debate.

53:51Tom Pelissero:Isn't that our thing now? I like actual intellectually honest arguments. Right now, you guys happen to be a green, and that's fine. But the issue is Billy is a natural curveball. So me, I come in thinking I'm going to give my actual picks. Billy's going to, but then Billy, you're coming in with similar picks. So I'm not taking any accountability. I'm blaming this on you. So now I'm wondering, do you respect my opinions?

54:16Sheil Kapadia:Are you starting to question your own decisions if we're so similar on these situations? I'm on your team, Billy. I like being aligned with Billy Gill.

54:24Tom Pelissero:Right now you're aligned on the Bills, the Bengals, the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Lions, and the Bucs as division winners, the Ravens and the Chargers as wild cards. So you're eight, whatever that is, eight for 10 so far. It's not fun.

54:38Sheil Kapadia:It's not fun so far. I feel like next division, I'm going to give you the Cardinals just to kind of switch things up.

54:43Tom Pelissero:Let's go to the NFC West. All right, NFC West shield. This almost 91's game. NFC West, what do you got? So NFC West, every inkling in my body was to be team content and think, zag against the Los Angeles Rams. Don't pick the Los Angeles Rams. Anytime a team is hyped up that much and they're getting all the headlines, it doesn't work. And the analytical part of my brain said, all right, do I think their offense is going to be good? Yeah, you know, Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Puka Nakua, they're probably going to have a top five offense. And then I looked at the defense and I was like, Miles Garrett is added to a pass rush.

55:21I don't know that people realize this was like a top five pass rush in the NFL last year. Miles Garrett has never had this kind of help on the defensive line. And I said, Sean McVay's had a winning record in eight of nine seasons. I have no questions about the coach. And I just landed on the boring take that this is going to work, that they're going to be 13 and four, that they're going to win the NFC West and they're going to be the number one seed in the NFC. I feel like I just need to apologize to everyone, but I'm sorry. That's where I landed.

55:53Sheil Kapadia:I also have the West being won at 13-4 by the Seattle Seahawks. All right, good. Thank you. I feel like this is just one of those things where the Rams, we'll get to the wild card situation, and you'll see it wasn't a huge difference between the two teams. But I think both of us, and all three of us really, have it being a two-team race. 49ers are good, but I don't think they're at the same level as the Seattle Seahawks and the LA Rams. Now, here's the thing with the Rams. I feel like we've talked about it a couple times. they have an older roster. They're more building this roster for the playoffs to get over that hump, to get to the Super Bowl.

56:28Sheil Kapadia:And I kind of wonder if there's a point where they're not always going to have their foot all the way on the gas, knowing what the end goal is and not saying, you know what? I mean, we could play for the number one seed, but I already told you the Lions are going to be 13 and four. So then you wouldn't necessarily go into like a tiebreaker situation. So do they go and do they say, you know what? Maybe there's some time that we need to rest our guys. is maybe let's not go 100 % every time because we want everyone to be healthy. We don't want to force any injuries here. We want to be at 100 % headed into it.

56:57Sheil Kapadia:I have the Seahawks going 13-4. I have the Rams going 12-5. And the Rams also have a sneaky, tricky little things in their schedule here. Where the first game is the international game, as you know, we're going to see which theory works out better, getting there the day before or getting there the week before versus the 49ers. So that one's kind of a toss-up. I think the 49ers may end up having an edge there just because they're not going to have potentially that jet lag. And then they have two tricky games coming off of buys where they're playing against the Chargers off of a buy. They're going to be playing off the Cowboys off of a buy.

57:29Sheil Kapadia:They have short rest versus the Seahawks the first time they play against them. And then they finish the season with the Seahawks. I think that they end up winning that game. But they have little things here and there where they have a lot less rest in some games than their opponents on games that are probably a toss-up where I think that some of those don't go their way and that ends up being the difference with Seattle getting one more win than the Rams in the West.

57:49Tom Pelissero:Is it saying something about the league that Billy just said the Seahawks win the division and that's like an upset? It's like, oh, thank goodness. He picked the upset by predicting the Super Bowl champions would win their division. Yeah, it's very strange. I don't remember anything quite like this where I would have to go back and look, but defending Super Bowl champ to not even be favored to win their own division, I can't imagine that's happened a lot in NFL history. But also not just Super Bowl champ, but number one seed. I don't know if the Giants were favored in 08 or 12 to win the NFC East, but they were also a wildcard team that kind of ran the table through.

58:25Tom Pelissero:This team last year was the number one seed and roared. I mean, just dominated people other than obviously some close games with the Rams, but they dominated a lot of the season. They're an anonymous team. John Schneider always jokes about it. You know, you know, all you guys never don't cover us. We're just tucked away up in the Pacific Northwest. You know, you don't even know who the players are. I think it's true. The fact that you don't get as much coverage because they're playing all their home games are at 405 Eastern or 425. You know, it's those the mid afternoon kickoff and it's not the main game because the Cowboys are playing again.

59:01Tom Pelissero:And so they're on the secondary game like there is some of that. Sam Darnold is one of the most anonymous Super Bowl winners. Anonymous might be the wrong word, but not the guy that you'd go, all right, name your top five quarterbacks. Who's saying Sam Darnold? He's a really good player who was on a really good team, didn't play his best in the Super Bowl. He's talked about that. But, you know, your quarterback is not like the face of your franchise. Who is the face of the Seattle Seahawks? I guess JSN, probably. Leonard Williams in his own way, but that's literally because he's got the physically biggest face.

59:31Tom Pelissero:like I don't know that there's a face of that team and so yeah when the Eagles you know are rolling through the Super Bowl you can point to everybody like who's who's in commercials from the Seahawks you don't see Seahawks in commercials ever no one Mike McDonald zero commercials I don't think Mike would even want to do that but like there's nothing you're inundated with Jalen Hurts has these ads and AJ Brown has these ads and Saquon there's nobody on the Seahawks I think that as much as they'll never admit it publicly, and I'm glad they did hard knocks and kind of just showed what the Seahawks are all about, I just think that they probably relish this.

1:00:08Tom Pelissero:The fact that, oh, you want to talk about the Rams and the 49ers? Okay, we're going to go play another anonymous, you know, I mean, not anonymous, but week one game against the Patriots on a Wednesday night. Everybody's going to be talking about the, you know, what are you expecting in the Rams 49ers game? They love it. The place is going to be absolutely rocking. All right, wild cards real quick here. Before we get into the playoffs, we will break down the entire thing. I'll get your CD and all that. But, Seale, three wild cards. That's not a lot of space with all the teams that are going to be competitive here.

1:00:36My first is the team you just mentioned, the Seattle Seahawks. I think Mike McDonald. You know, when you mentioned sponsorships, if I've got like a tri-blend t-shirt company, you know, something that fits a little snug, comfy, I mean, he loves those things. He's rocking those little mediums on hard knocks all the time. Yeah, so that would be a nice... I don't want to give business opportunities to other people. We, of course, want them here at the ringer. But, you know, just in case anyone's looking, I'm trying to do my part. But listen, I think you could take McDonald and give him almost any 11 players on defense.

1:01:07And I'll be like, yeah, they're going to have a top 10 defense. That's kind of what I think about him as a defensive coach. And my favorite stat for the Seahawks, they had a buy in week 10 of McDonald's first season. Okay. Since then, they've played 28 games. they've gone 23 and 5 and they've lost one time by more than 7 points I love teams that are just consistently competitive yes you're going to get bad luck in one score games but it's just like they're in every single game that speaks I think to kind of the culture and the makeup of that team so I've got the Seahawks there as my first wild card I've got the Cowboys as my second wild card I think the offense is going to be a top 5 unit and I'm just buying the fact that Christian Parker can get that defense.

1:01:54It's the same conversation with the Bengals. I'm buying the fact that Christian Parker can get them to maybe the 24th best defense and I think that's going to be good enough. And then my last pick, and I think Billy's going to disagree with me here, I'm going to Minnesota. I'm buying that the Vikings are a wild card team. I think the pendulum has swung too far on Kyler Murray. So now everyone, he stinks. You can't win with Kyler Murray. It's like he's a mediocre quarterback who's going to be in a good situation with good wide receivers, with a good offensive coach, with good offensive tackles.

1:02:28And I think he's going to be able to give you good enough play where if that defense is as good as many think it's going to be because of Brian Flores, not because of the talent, that they can win 10 games and be a wildcard team. So I always try to find new teams every year, three in each conference at least, that are going to make the playoffs. And I've got the Vikings as one of those three teams.

1:02:50Tom Pelissero:I like that call. Nine and eight last year with all the stuff they had going on in the quarterback room. They knocked the Lions out of the playoffs on Christmas in a game where Max Brosner threw for like 52 yards. I mean, if they can just get competent quarterback play, they did it with Sam Darnold. They did it the first year with Kirk Cousins. When Kevin O 'Connell just has a quarterback who's able to stay healthy, which has been an issue for Kyler as well, when he has, they've been a really, really good team. Billy, wildcards.

1:03:15Sheil Kapadia:Now I'm second guessing this. You guys are selling me on the Vikings.

1:03:18Tom Pelissero:I feel like maybe you mapped out all 272 for I did. I did.

1:03:22Sheil Kapadia:And I will tell you what, and I showed you this before. Here's what happened. I did every single game and I thought, wow, this is such a stupid exercise that I put myself through. What a waste of my time. This took literally hours. And then I have to go back and I have to double check. Okay, I had this team winning this game. Do I have the other team losing this game to make sure that everything lines up? And I spent so much time on this and I thought that it was all for nothing. and I could have just gone down, just taken like a bird's eye view of the schedule and kind of picked out. But I didn't want to do it that way.

1:03:49Sheil Kapadia:And I'm glad I didn't, and I'm going to tell you why. My first wildcard team I have is the LA Rams. We just talked about them. Shield talked about them winning the West. I said it was kind of back and forth between them and the Seahawks. I have them one game worse than the Seahawks at 12-5. That's my first wildcard team. Now, this is why I'm glad I went week by week, game by game, and picked every single outcome. Because I had four teams tied at 11-6. and I only had two playoff spots.

1:04:15Tom Pelissero:You ran the tiebreakers? Wow.

1:04:17Sheil Kapadia:I then had to go through the tiebreakers, which was very, very annoying. I had to go back and I had to look at each game. How did they do in their division? How did they do? So that was very annoying. But coming out with that thing, I'll tell you the four teams that I had tied. I had the 49ers tied at 11 and 6, which may be a surprise to you guys. I had the 49ers, I had the Bears, I had the Packers, and I had the Cowboys all at 11 and 6. And this is when you start looking at the schedule. You have to go down to the tiebreakers. Who makes it in? Who doesn't make it in? Because all of them equally match here, 11-6.

1:04:49Sheil Kapadia:My next wildcard team I have being the 49ers. I have the 49ers getting in. And then my final wildcard team is the Packers. So the first one's out. I have the Bears and the Cowboys not making the playoffs this year. Okay, so 49ers. So you're not scared away by what feels like it's been a little bit of the summer from hell for the 49ers. You think that's kind of off-field stuff that's not going to have an impact and they're going to still win 11 games. I feel like this is one of those things where even though Kyle Shanahan was involved in some of these weird off-season things, we're kind of like, well, Kyle Shanahan, he's a genius.

1:05:29Sheil Kapadia:Kyle Shanahan, he'll figure it out. And we probably give him credit just for the success of the team and saying like, eh, they're not going to let those distractions get in the way. So I'm going to say, you know what? Kyle Shanahan's going to do whatever it is that Kyle Shanahan does. Sure enough, he went out there. He had that guy running around pretending to be a 49er, embezzling people out of$1.3 million, faking dates, running on the beach, doing all that stuff.

1:05:48Tom Pelissero:Now that one's not their fault.

1:05:50Sheil Kapadia:No, he made sure that guy's not on the roster. He wasn't going to be confused by him because the internet, as we saw, Mina Kyes went out there and she pointed out like, hey, look what happens when you go to Google. Google will tell you this guy's on the team because it's just going back and it's saying like, oh, well, the sources are his Instagram page. and they confirmed that he was on the roster because of enough Instagram posts. They said like, well, there's enough of a paper trail here. He must be on the team. So she pointed out like, hey, maybe this AI thing is not as great as we think. And there's kind of a flaw here, but it didn't trick Kyle.

1:06:16Sheil Kapadia:Kyle knew. He said, you know what? I let this AI get me once before because my car may or may not have been on autopilot when I got into my accident. But I'm not going to let this AI get me again. And I'm not going to let this AI tell me this guy's not on my team. I've never seen him before in my life and he's not going to make this roster. And sure enough, Kyle got things on lock there and he made sure that he did not make the roster. So those are my teams that I have making it. Sheil, I don't have the Cowboys making it, which you had. The Vikings, you had making it as a wildcard team. So you think the Vikings, obviously, are going to be better than the Bears as well as...

1:06:46Tom Pelissero:Nobody has the Bears. No one has the Bears. No one has the Bears. You had them losing a tiebreaker. That was my last team out. Really?

1:06:52Sheil Kapadia:No love for the Packers either, huh?

1:06:54Tom Pelissero:Two 11-6 teams missing the playoffs would be unprecedented, just for the record. The Seahawks in 2024 missed it at 10-7, and they were one of, I think, two teams ever double-digit win-miss in the playoffs. But I could see it because, listen, there are a lot of teams that we didn't talk about once here because it's hard to fathom any path for them to get into the playoffs. I mean, of your list, looking at this, the Bears not making it. That certainly jumps out for either of you. Nobody really talking about the Giants. I think that the projections are all over the place. John Harbaugh, though, when he came into Baltimore, immediately went to the AFC Championship game in his first year.

1:07:32Tom Pelissero:That's where the bar is going to be set. No one put the Panthers in. Coming off of the NFC South title, everybody skipped out on them. Let's get into the heart of this. I'm going to get your full seeds, championship predictions, and Super Bowl next. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense?

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1:08:16Tom Pelissero:All right, it is time. We're into the playoffs. This segment sponsored by Orgain, as you guys reveal your predictions. So I will let you, you already unveiled your playoff team. Before we start to get to the championship game and Super Bowl predictions, Shield, do you have handy your exact seedings on your teams? You had the Bills, the Bengals, Texans, Chiefs in the AFC, Ravens, Broncos, Chargers as the wild cards. Did you have those seeded out? Yeah, you know, I felt a little like Billy here because I was like, shoot, I think he did tell us to seed him. But I didn't seed him. But, you know, we just kind of tossed to a break there.

1:08:53So I was really scrambling there. and I think I figured out the seeding there. So do you want me to give you my seeding in the AFC? Yes, please. Okay. I've got the Bills as the one seed in the AFC. I've got the Bengals as the two seed. I've got the Chiefs as the three seed and the Texans as the four seed. So those are my division winners. And then I've got Ravens, five seed, Broncos, six seed, and the Chargers as the seven seed. That's my AFC. All right.

1:09:23Tom Pelissero:We don't need to go through every single game, In this scenario, it's fun to look at these Texans, Ravens, Broncos at Chiefs, Chargers at Bengals would be your wildcard games. Feel free, Shield, to give me a little color, but just give me your AFC Championship game participants. Okay. My AFC Championship game participants. We've got a great quarterback matchup. This is a throwback to the NFL we know and love. We're all sitting down on that Sunday afternoon and we get to watch Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. This is back to the year of the quarterback.

1:10:16You got to have the great quarterback in the AFC to compete. It's not like last year. That was a fluke. No Mahomes, no Burrow, no Lamar. No, this is back to the best quarterbacks putting their teams on their back. And Cincinnati goes to Buffalo and Bills fans are saying, we got the new stadium. This is a new era of Bills football. No more heartbreak. But you know what? Joe Burrow says that wasn't propaganda you heard from me in the summer about how good this team is. That way, everyone's saying, I want it out of Cincinnati and I'm a little emotional. And what's up with Joe Burrow? He's saying, you know what?

1:10:51it was injuries and it was a horrible defense. Any of you with a brain could have figured that out. Well, guess what? The defense is better this year and I'm back and I got great wide receivers and those poor Bills fans. Now, some of them have the obstructed view and they're kind of happy because they don't want to see what Joe Burrow's doing to that Bills defense. The Cincinnati Bengals go to Buffalo and they get to the Super Bowl in the AFC.

1:11:19Tom Pelissero:Shield. Bengals over Bills in the Super Bowl. All right, Billy, let's reset now. Your AFC playoff field. I know you've got these seeded, so give me the rundown on the seeds.

1:11:29Sheil Kapadia:So I have the Bengals with the one seed, the Bills with the two seed, the Jaguars with the three seed, the Chiefs with the four seed, the Ravens with the five seed, the Patriots with the six seed, and the Chargers with the seven seed.

1:11:43Tom Pelissero:So again, don't need to do every single game, but that would be Chargers at Bills, Patriots at Jags, Ravens at Chiefs.

1:11:51Sheil Kapadia:Yeah.

1:11:51Tom Pelissero:Good matchups in there. All right. Take me on whatever path you must. We'll go down. We'll go down. AFC Championship. Yeah.

1:11:57Sheil Kapadia:I won't go through every single game, but I'll let you know. To get there, and now here's the thing, where once again, I'm kind of like, why didn't I consult with Sheil? I have the Bills and the Bengals, but I have them getting there very different ways. I have the Bills taking on the Jaguars in the second round, and then the Ravens upset the Chiefs in the first round, so they're going to be taking on the Bengals. Now, here's the thing. This is a big year, and I know Shields coming out here, and he's saying, oh, my gosh, there's so much to be proven here by the Bengals and Joe Burrow. It wasn't all this off-season hype.

1:12:33Sheil Kapadia:He's going to prove everyone wrong. He's finally going to be healthy. But there's another quarterback in this equation who also needs to be proving people wrong, particularly in the playoffs, and that is the person that's going to be playing him and Josh Allen. And the only part about these predictions that makes me sad is that the Bills, you know, they went out, they fired McDermott. If we go back, they fired Ken Dorsey when he wasn't working out for Josh Allen. And Josh is kind of running out of people to make excuses here. They're kind of clearing house. They gave him Joe Brady, a familiar face.

1:13:04Sheil Kapadia:And we were talking about what is it they need to do to get over the hump. It's Josh Allen that needs to get over the hump and his playoff struggles and his playoff turnovers and kind of trying to force things when he doesn't need to force them. Now, he's done that in the past because he doesn't have the most talented wide receivers. I mean, he had Stephon Diggs, but they went and they got him a wide receiver and more. They went and they drafted him a wide receiver to be a deep threat. He didn't have a lot of deep threats last year. So this year is really, even though he doesn't have necessarily the number one wide receiver that every team would have, he doesn't have an A.J.

1:13:36Sheil Kapadia:Brown out there. He doesn't have a JSN out there. They've given him pieces, and this is going to come down to whether or not Josh Allen can finally make that leap and get past the AFC title game. And the one thing that makes me sad is that the other person he couldn't get over in the AFC was Patrick Mahomes. And unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to go far enough to face Josh Allen this year. So I have the Bills winning on the road in Cincinnati, making it to the Super Bowl, which is going to be great. They're going to be happy. They're going to get that, but they're not going to get that postseason win over Patrick Mahomes that Josh simply could not get in his career.

1:14:17Sheil Kapadia:He kills him. He has an incredible record against him in the regular season. Something about the playoffs, he just can't get one over on him. And he's finally going to make it to the Super Bowl. But he's not going to get that extra peg on his belt of beating Patrick Mahomes along the way.

1:14:31Tom Pelissero:So you two came up with the same AFC Championship game matchup, but reversed because of the seeding. And in both cases, the road team wins. Sheil's got the Bengals winning in Buffalo. Billy's got the Bills winning in Cincinnati. All right. Let's flip it over to the NFC side. We've got Sheil's picks. You got Eagles, Lions, Bucks, Ravens winning divisions, Seahawks, Cowboys, Vikings. Give me the seeds, Sheil, and give me the path here. Who gets into that NFC championship game? All right. I've got the Rams as the one seed. The Lions as the two seed. Eagles as the three seed, Bucs as the four seed, and then the wild cards, five, six, and seven.

1:15:15Seahawks, Cowboys, and Vikings in that order. So those are your seven playoff teams.

1:15:22Tom Pelissero:You got some division games here. Cowboys at Eagles, Vikings at Lions, along with Seahawks at Bucs in the wild card round. Take me as you will, Shield, to the NFC Championship game. That's right. And Eagles and Lions win their first round matchups. Seahawks go to Tampa. They beat Tampa. And that sets up a great divisional round where the Seahawks go to Los Angeles. But this time the Rams are victorious. The Eagles go to Detroit and the Lions win that football game. So we've got an NFC championship game at SoFi. Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams. Everyone's obsessed with the fact that the Los Angeles Rams get to sleep in their own beds for a whole month.

1:16:09That's all anyone's talking about. Who is that? I don't know. Some talking head. None of us. Some talking head out there. You won't hear that on the Ringer NFL show. But the Rams... You know, the Rams, you know, Rams are sleeping in their own bed. They don't have to go anywhere. The Super Bowl's in Los Angeles. Detroit goes to Los Angeles. No one believes in them, you know? Dan Campbell's trying to get his guys ready. And they go there. And Jared Goff says, this is my time, Sean McVay. Wow. You threw me out the door. You thought you could do better, you know? You found the, it's like a bad breakup.

1:16:51You blocked my number. You didn't tell me why. You brought on somebody else, and that was Matthew Stafford. And yeah, you won a Super Bowl, but you know what? I got something to me. I'm not just that guy on hard knocks years back that couldn't identify the divisions. I'm a good quarterback. I got a good team. Dan Campbell has him fired up. And the Detroit Lions go to Los Angeles and end the Rams' quest for a Super Bowl. And the Detroit Lions, for the first time in franchise history, get to the final game, get to the Super Bowl to face the Cincinnati Bengals.

1:17:28Sheil Kapadia:I get top that, Billy. All right. So my one seed is the Lions. My two seed is the Seahawks. That was a tiebreaker because they both had the same record. And that's why it was important to do game by game to determine the tiebreakers. Lions, one seed, two, the Seahawks. Three seed is the Eagles. Four seeds, the Bucs. five seed is the Rams six seed is the 49ers seven seed is the Packers I don't have any massive upsets in the first round I guess you could say a four or five the Rams over the Bucks would be an upset so in the second round I have Shields NFC Championship game except I have it in reverse I have the Rams traveling to Detroit to take on the Lions well no this is the same championship game this is the round before we have this game now the round before and why is that?

1:18:15Sheil Kapadia:Tiebreakers seedings. It all came down to these very important games during the season. Had the Rams beat the Seahawks one more time, they would have not been facing the Lions. They would have been the division winners. They would have been a two seed instead of a five seed. They would have been hosting a game instead. They're on the road. This is what happens and why every game counts and why this is a very important exercise, Sheila. So I have the Eagles flying to Seattle to take on the Seahawks, and I have the Rams flying to Detroit to take on the Lions. And Sheila, you made a very good argument and unfortunately i believe that the lions are going to end the ram season around earlier than you think they are but we're going to have the same result except it's going to be in detroit and we're going to have a number two seed in seattle traveling to a number one seed in detroit not exciting at all one versus two but it is what it is and lions and their fans they're going to show the 12th man what a home field advantage is i know that we hear all the time Seattle Seahawks fans, they're so loud.

1:19:11Sheil Kapadia:And I say, you know what? I wonder if that's just stadium design and if just a bunch of fooey, you know what I mean? They're not really that loud. So we're going to be in Detroit and we're going to be obviously inside a dome and that place is going to be loud and they're going to bring out Jack White and they're going to bring out Eminem and they're going to bring out all these Detroit legends that they bring out every time they have a big game. And the Lions, much like Shield predicted, as a home team are going to get to that game that they haven't before. They are going to go through and they're going to eliminate along the road the Rams.

1:19:44Sheil Kapadia:They're going to eliminate along the road the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. And the Detroit Lions, under my predictions, are going to end up in the Super Bowl against the Buffalo Bills.

1:19:55Tom Pelissero:So we have the Lions winning the NFC for both of you. Shields got Bengals-Lions. Billy has Bills-Lions. game at SoFi where, I don't know, does Jared Goff get a warm welcome? He knocked the Rams out of the playoffs in both your scenarios, but he's back home in L.A. Is anyone from L.A. even at the game if it's not the Rams? What is the setup? Who are people cheering for? Who is the country cheering for in these games? Because you're talking about with the Bengals, the Bills, and the Lions. These are the three relatively tortured franchises. Somebody's got to win. Somebody's got to win the game. Yeah, I think that it's so far, it's pretty much split.

1:20:42To your point, Lions and Bengals, very good fan bases, very hungry fan bases. I don't think they'll let either side kind of take control of that stadium. And I think the nation will be split. I think Joe Burrow is a polarizing figure. You know, I think some people will say, yeah, we love him. We want Joe Burrow to win this game. And let's let something good happen to the Bengals. And others will say the Lions have never even gotten there. we are rooting for them. So the Lions defense at this time, I don't think I told you guys this. They got Brian Branch back. They got Kirby Joseph back. But what really sparked them in the second half of the season was a trade deadline acquisition of Max Crosby.

1:21:21Wow. That defense, which we looked at going into the season saying this has a lot of holes. Now they've got Aiden Hutchinson and Max Crosby flying off the edge. and that's just totally transformed their defense. So their offense is a well-oiled machine. The Bengals are still leading on their offense. They've got a great offense. Their defense has had some holes. We get an old-fashioned shootout. Goff is carving up the Bengals' defense. Burroughs carving up the Lions' defense. He's getting rid of the ball so quickly that those defensive ends are just getting frustrated. But ultimately, this is the Detroit Lions' year.

1:22:01The Detroit Lions go to SoFi after disposing of the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game. They beat the Cincinnati Bengals in an epic classic Super Bowl, which we are entertained by. And the city of Detroit hoists the Lombardi Trophy.

1:22:21Tom Pelissero:There you go. Nearly 70 years after the last championship for the Lions. She has them walking into SoFi and coming out. Billy, you've got the Lions in this game too? Yeah. You got them going up against the Bills. I do. How does this play out?

1:22:39Sheil Kapadia:Well, so I have a question. In this scenario, do I have to abide by Sheil's fantasy trade deadline acquisition? So is Max Crosby on the line? You're in your different reality. All right. Oh, well, if I'm in my different reality. We're in the multiverse right now.

1:22:54Tom Pelissero:You can have anybody on these teams that you want.

1:22:57Sheil Kapadia:I like that you said that because I was kind of, I'm going to be honest with you. While she was talking, you know, she'll said that he didn't have his team seated headed into this. I had my two Super Bowl teams, but I was kind of waiting to see how things played out. I didn't necessarily have one winner over another. I had everybody going up until the Super Bowl. And I said, you know what? Let's see how this fantasy season plays out here. Let's see what points Tom and she'll make. and maybe I'll be, you know, swayed one way or another based on the information that I'm getting. And then we got into a world where we could just make fantasy acquisitions.

1:23:34Sheil Kapadia:And that's what the Lions did, where they went and they got Max Crosby. It's all predictions. It's all fake. So I was looking and I said, you know what? Create your world. They did go and they did try to get Josh Allen some help headed into the season, but he still doesn't have that number one. And that's when, you know, they really stepped up in Buffalo and they went out and shocked the world and they got Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson. And once they got him Justin Jefferson, things really took off for the Bills. And that's why they were able to go through. I didn't tell you that in the game against the Bengals because I didn't want to spoil the Super Bowl.

1:24:11But man, Justin Jefferson came in

1:24:14Sheil Kapadia:at that trade deadline for the Bills and he really was that missing piece needed by Josh Allen to take him over the edge. So much so to the point that throughout this entire run, people, not I, but people were questioning, was Josh Allen really good enough? Was this Josh Allen that got the Bills over the hump? Was this a Brady situation where they came in and it was a new coach? So poor Josh Allen finally gets over the bump, but they go out there, they get him the new coach that he wants. They get him that piece in Justin Jefferson that he's been wanting and needing for so long. And the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl.

1:24:47Sheil Kapadia:Unfortunately, putting the Lions in a situation again where Dan Campbell is at the podium after the Super Bowl and he's crying and he's once again questioning, was that our window? I went in there and I told our guys, you only get so much of these chances. This may have been our last. It's possible that our window closed. And it's weird because he had that same conversation three years ago. But sure enough, Justin Jefferson and not Josh Allen lead the Buffalo Bills to winning the Super Bowl and getting Josh that rig. And what an incredible two years it's been for him. He gets married. He has a kid.

1:25:24Sheil Kapadia:He just announced that he's launching a media company. He gets a Super Bowl ring. I mean, the guy's got it all, except the respect of the country, unfortunately, because of that acquisition. Justin Jefferson wins the MVP of the Super Bowl and Josh Allen, people are still questioning, is he the man or not? Bills win the Super Bowl.

1:25:44Tom Pelissero:I don't buy many things in that scenario, but there it is. Billy Gill, Bills, Super Bowl champs, Shio Kapadia, Lions, Super Bowl champs. Here's the best part, as we wrap up this episode, by the way, is that in six short days, we get to actually see it happening. We get games. This is my favorite time of year. We can speculate, and I enjoy every second of it, but now you're actually going to see these teams go out on the field, and things change, and circumstances evolve, and trades do happen. Injuries do happen. we are that close to seeing it. So the show will be back next week. I'm on a plane to Melbourne, Australia on Sunday, getting in Tuesday morning.

1:26:25Tom Pelissero:I hope to be joining you guys Wednesday morning, which is Tuesday night here. I mean, the Pottle Post Wednesday morning here. I think I have that right. We'll work it out after the show for Sheil and Billy. I'm Tom Pellicero. See ya.

1:26:4821 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 and support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867. This episode is brought to you by ChatGPT. Hey, it's Bill Simmons from the Bill Simmons Podcast. Have you guys heard about ChatGPT work?

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1:27:54Sheil Kapadia:The wild world of college football continues Labor Day weekend. On Saturday, East Carolina looks to shock Alabama and Baylor and Auburn battle it out in Atlanta in the Aflac kickoff game. Then Clemson hits the road looking to spoil Lane Kiffin's Death Valley debut. Sunday night it's Louisville versus Ole Miss in Nashville in the inaugural Liberty Mutual Music City kickoff game College Football Labor Day weekend continues Saturday and Sunday on ABC and the ESPN app