Playoff Primer! The Most Interesting Story Lines in the NFC Wild-Card Matchups

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1:07Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are taking a look at the NFC matchups during wildcard weekend. We got Rams and Panthers Saturday afternoon. We got Packers at Bears Saturday night and then 49ers at Eagles in the late afternoon window on Sunday. What is the most interesting thing about each of these matchups? That's what we're going to talk about. My guest today is the Ringers, Billy Gill. Let's take a break. We come back. We talk NFC playoff matchups. The Ringer NFL show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play.

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2:30All right, we are back here with Billy Gill. We are talking NFC playoff matchups in the wild card round. What's the most interesting thing about each matchup? Billy, let's start with Rams at Panthers, the old Saturday afternoon. Panthers are big home underdogs here. I'm curious what you're going to say here. What it because because I mean, they're 10 and a half point underdogs at home. I think everyone expects the Rams to win. But what is your most interesting thing for this game?

2:58Sheil Kapadia:Sheel, I feel like we're aligned here, like we're connected. We don't even know it, but our minds are in the same place because I was going to say my most interesting thing about this, and I know this isn't a gambling show and I know we do a lot of spreads and a lot of gambling and all that, but the minus 10, the heavy favorite there on the road in the playoffs, interesting. Because we talked about it, you know, a couple of days ago when we were talking about this matchup and a lot of people writing the Panthers off, like, if you listen back to that episode, I was writing them off as well. But I did a thing, Shield, before this episode.

3:29Sheil Kapadia:You know what I did? What's that? I went back and I rewatched the matchup. I watched the game summary. I watched the condensed game. I did it for this game. I said, you know what? We have big, heavy implications here for the playoffs. Happy playoffs, by the way, to you, shield, to all those other. Oh, and by the way, PSA, because I forgot to do it last week. If you're out there and you're listening, cancel your red zone subscription because you no longer need a red zone subscription. So cancel that now. So you save money every month. Now, big-time playoff implications moving forward. Obviously, every game is an elimination game.

4:06Sheil Kapadia:Now, I went back and I watched the games. This game, very close. It was somewhat miraculous by the Panthers to win the game. It took three turnovers, took two interceptions, took a late fumble, but they kept that thing close. The Rams still almost came back and tied that game, forced overtime, or won that game. But that spread is massive, especially for a road team. I don't know if you've done any research, looked it up, how often it is that you have such big spreads on the road in the NFL, but it's something that catches your eye for sure. I did do that. I actually did that exact exercise. I wanted to know just home teams that are underdogs of seven points or more.

4:43Who were they and what happened in those games? So let's take a little trip down memory lane here. So 2010 Saints at Seahawks. You remember that game, the beast quake game. Seahawks are 10 point underdogs. They're seven and nine. No one's given them a shot against the Saints and they beat this. Not only do they cover, they beat the Saints 41-36. So you had that. 2011, Steelers at Broncos. Tim Tebow. Were you a big Tim Tebow guy?

5:08Sheil Kapadia:Was that the Tebow game with the one reception, the walk-off touchdown we had? Oh, Tebow. Actually, was it that game? Or was that the... I actually can't remember. He was very corny, obviously. But I wanted him to succeed. Didn't end up happening. Didn't end up happening. But it did happen in that game because the Broncos won. 29-23, they were seven and a half point underdogs in that game. And then 2020, the Bucks at Commanders, do you remember this one? Billy Tom Brady versus Taylor Heineke. The 11-5 Bucks against the 7-9. They were called the Washington football team. This was that era, the Washington football team.

5:46And the Bucks won, but they didn't cover. So the last three times we've had this happen, the underdog has covered all three times and has won two of those times. So that brings me, Billy, to the most interesting thing for me about this game. Okay. And that's what happens if the Panthers actually pull the upset off here. Okay. Because no one, I don't think anyone, you know, when you're in content, sometimes you want to take that zag and you want to say, I know, no one's going to just pick the Panthers outright. I actually think you're going to have a hard time finding like one person picking the Panthers to win this game outright.

6:23But it can happen. That's why they play the games. It's not going to be me. But if it is the Panthers, think about all the ramifications. So short term, you have the Panthers are the four seed. If they win now, all of a sudden, if you're one of these other team, the Bears, the Eagles, the Seahawks, you might get to face the Panthers in the second round with a chance to go to the NFC championship game. So that's one thing that can happen. And then the second thing that can happen, Bryce Young, you know, we talked about him. I think the first time you were on with me and we say, like, seems like a likable guy.

6:55We can go hang out with Bryce Young, me, you, Bryce Young, go have a meal, you know, maybe have a drink. Well, whatever.

7:01Sheil Kapadia:Dave and Buster's probably. I think Bryce Young's someone that likes to action with his meal. You know what I mean? That's right. I smoke him in Papa Shot. Rainforest Cafe or something like that for Bryce. He likes a themed restaurant. I like that. Little chain, you know, he's got his go-to. Yeah, I agree with that. And so Bryce Young, do the Panthers, does this change what they think about him? Because remember, they have the fifth-year option. They got to decide this offseason. But they could say, forget the fifth-year option. We're signing him to a big contract here. So that's the second thing.

7:31And then the last thing, and I want to know what you think about all these. Matthew Stafford, you know, he's under contract for just one more season. So if they lose here, do they say, you know what? We got to go all in. He is maybe the MVP, maybe the MVP runner-up. We have two first-round picks. Hey, Max Crosby, oh, you're available for trade? We got some drafts. Do they do something crazy this offseason and build the roster and say, we're taking one last shot at it here in the offseason because we were so disappointed with that loss at the Panthers? If the Panthers win this game, I think all those things are in play.

8:05Sheil Kapadia:It's, I mean, we were talking about it a little bit earlier today and you brought it up. This could be a situation in regards to Bryce where the Panthers, who were out on Bryce, Young last year. Like, had it not been for like a freak, you know, car accident or whatever, Andy Dalton would have finished up the season. They claim that they would have started him again, but who knows if that actually would have happened. Car accident, yeah. Do you remember the, uh, who was it? The, uh, Ryan Fitzpatrick whose career ended because of a water slide accident that he denied was a water slide accident all those years later.

8:34Sheil Kapadia:He's still like, if you bring it up, he's like, that's not what happened. So yeah, car accident for Andy Dalton. So anyways, we get Bryce Young. They probably would have moved on from him this offseason had he not come back last season, finished out the season. Huge question marks coming into this season. He now wins the division with them, takes him to the playoffs. If he wins a game, this could be a Daniel Jones, New York Giants situation again, right? We're like, hold on now. We found a quarterback that could win a playoff game. We got to lock him up. And then he could go back to being kind of Bryce Young that he's been.

9:07Sheil Kapadia:Because what do you do if you're the Panthers? You're now coming off of a playoff appearance, a playoff win. you're not sold on this guy do you tell your fan base hey you know what we're going to start over a quarterback again because as a playoff team what quarterbacks this offseason are going to be around for them to potentially draft and then you're kind of playing a dangerous game where you're hoping you get a quarterback next season so I don't think that a quarterback change is realistic in this situation right so you may already because of the fact that you're even in this position have committed to Bryce Young which could set your franchise I guess it's not setting it back because we talked about it last week they've never had back-to-back winning seasons including this season where they didn't have a winning season i mean this this potentially if we look back 10 years from now the history of the game could be one of the more important games that didn't seem to really have any stakes the way things may play out moving forward it would be the wildest outcome of a first round game probably of our lifetimes i'm saying that off the top of my head, but I don't know if that's true.

10:09I have no idea. Sometimes you just talk and then when the words come out, you decide, is that actual, do I actually believe that or not? And I think you sense that from me as I was saying it, but, but I was just giving you the spreads, you know, teams haven't lost that were 10 and a half point favorites. The one was a 10 point spread. So it would be one of the biggest upsets, uh, in the first round in the playoffs of our lifetime. So again, if we find anyone who picks the Panthers here, maybe we should just pick, Let's do it. Should we do it for content?

10:37Sheil Kapadia:Yeah, I'll do it. I don't care. I don't have the reputation that you have. Well, I don't have the reputation, but now I feel left out and I want to be a team player. So let's just both do it. Sheil, I feel like I'm corrupting you. I feel like I've come on here and you are this well-respected football journalist. Well, I don't know about that. And people are coming on saying, oh, I need to hear what Sheil has to say about that. And then boom, I show up. And now we're here saying that the Panthers are going to not only cover the spread, they're going to beat the Rams in the playoffs. And it's going to set off all of these other things down the line in the history of the NFL.

11:08Sheil Kapadia:That's really going to throw this offseason into a tailspin early on one weekend, right? Here's how I'm looking at it. If the Panthers win, we're going to make their little sizzle reel as the only people who actually believed in them. And so I like where we're going with this. Here's what it would take. You mentioned it. You watched the first game. A few turnovers, little special teams magic maybe. Maybe you get a punt return, something like that. Block a field goal. And here's the other thing. Here's what I want Dave Canales to do, actually. They should not punt in this game. They should be going for every single fourth down.

11:43You're huge underdogs. The other team's offense, you mentioned you're respected. I was crunching all the nerd stuff earlier today, Billy. There is no scenario where the Panthers' defense is just forcing three and outs. They're not going to be able to stop the run. They're not going to be able to stop Matthew Stafford or Puka Nakua. They're not going to be able to rush the passer. So if you're the Panthers, you need to hold on to the football. You need to score. You need to have long possessions. Shrink the game. Dave Canales. If I see Dave Canales punt on like a fourth and one from midfield, all this goodwill we've given to the Panthers is out the window.

12:20That's Rams-Panthers, the first game here. All right, second game here, Billy. We got Packers at Bears. Oh, Sunday night. one. Chicago. Love it. What is the most interesting thing for you? Bears are one and a half point underdogs. So not big underdogs at home, but this is our second home underdog. What do you keep an eye on?

12:41Sheil Kapadia:It's interesting about this game, Sheel, is this little rivalry that seems to be going on between the two head coaches. And it's somewhat gone under the radar because it seems as though this might be a one-way rivalry that Ben Johnson has created here because Ben Johnson, when he came out, he had his introductory press conference. He came out and he said, you know what? I enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. That's why I'm going to take this job. And Matt LaFleur, you know, it's kind of like, okay, what do I do with this situation? So Matt LaFleur is a guest on Bussin' with the Boys not too long after that situation.

13:17Sheil Kapadia:And they asked Matt LaFleur like, hey, what's going on between you and Ben Johnson? He's taking shots you in introductory press conference. And you know what he said? What'd he say? He said, I don't really know him that well, there's no beef here. So it seems as though Ben Johnson decided, you know what, I'm going to set the tone here. We got a rivalry going on here. I'm going to take shots at the other coach. So he took the shot. Then, you know, Matt LaFleur tried to kind of like deescalate the situation. Then they played two times. They had very short handshakes after the fact. So it's kind of like, maybe there is a little bit more going on here.

13:48Sheil Kapadia:And then this past week after the game week 18 we had a situation where decisions had to be made he said you know what we're kind of locked at the seven right now let's not do that situation I'm gonna rest everyone let's give Jordan Love some extra time to us they've already lost Micah Parsons this year they've lost Tucker Craft so let's get everyone nice and healthy it doesn't matter now Ben Johnson who's the up-and-coming coach he's like the guy that's like ah you know I'm gonna go out there they had Caleb out there they had everyone out there they end up getting the two anyways because because the Eagles kind of punted on the situation, the two seed.

14:22Sheil Kapadia:When they asked him about that, he said, hey, why are you playing everybody? You know, other people are arresting people this week. You got the two seed. What are you doing? You know what he said? We play football. Now, is that possibly a veiled shot at LeFleur here? Is this going to be a situation? We've had two great games between these two teams the last five weeks. The last one went to overtime. But this quarterback or this head coach situation, the two of them throwing shots, it seems like it's one way, right now, but there's no better way to make this an actual beef, an actual situation where LeFleur is going to have to respond than for Ben Johnson to knock him out of the playoffs.

15:02Sheil Kapadia:You have to take him seriously at that point. You have to. And it's also my most interesting thing. And I don't think it is a media creation. I think the fans are into it. I think Ben Johnson saying that when he got the job and then Matt LeFleur doing the Don Draper. I don't even think about you at all, Ben Johnson. But then they play each other. And now it's like, oh, Ben Johnson might actually be a good coach. And then, yeah, to your point, this week, you know, I was doing some of the research for this pod. Sports Illustrated says Bears Ben Johnson turns up heat on simmering feud with Matt LaFleur saying some teams, they rest their starters.

15:38We don't. We play football. That's the full quote there. So how about this, Billy? We had Sunday night, we talked about Raven Steelers, which I think has long been considered. Hey, this is, you know, Colin Tworth was talking about it on Sunday night. Hey, there's rivalries, but then there's Raven Steelers. You know, you can feel it. Raven Steelers, it's been going on for so long. Maybe that was the end of that. Not the end of, but you know, this era of Raven Steelers. We don't know what's going to happen there. Maybe Bears Packers is going to take over as the rivalry in the NFL. You mentioned it.

16:10Two memorable games already this season. Ben Johnson is the villain we need. He has some of the show. It's the Sean Payton effect, I would say, where it's like he thinks he's God's gift to coaching football. But then you're kind of like, well, he's kind of might be awesome at coaching football also. So he thinks so highly of himself. But then you're like, all right, I kind of understand why he does because he's really good. So he's escalating this rivalry. Fan bases don't like each other. Same division. And I look at just the makeup. So that makeup of the teams going into this game, I trust both the offenses.

16:43I trust both the play callers. LaFleur and Ben Johnson are terrific. I don't think either of the defenses are very good. So I think we're going to get a close game. We're going to see some points in this game. And I'll tell you what, 1130 comes around Eastern time. I'm watching that handshake. I want to see what happens there. If LaFleur wins, does he finally fire back and say something? And if Ben Johnson wins, who knows? I mean, he is a bit, you know, he took the shirt off in the locker room with the speech. and he is a fun new character in our lives. So I can't wait for this game.

17:16Sheil Kapadia:I do wonder though, when you're saying you're going to watch like 1130, see exactly what's going on with that handshake. Let's say that the Packers win. LeFleur wins. Do you think that he is more inclined after that win to then say something like, I got you. Like now you can shut up. Or do you think a loss is what kind of puts him over the edge? Because I feel like he's a tea kettle right now. Like things are simmering and you can only take it so long before you burst. And that's probably where he is at this moment. I think if you lose, you can't say anything because what are you going to say?

17:48The other team won. What are you going to say? You look like a sore loser. But if you win and you sent Ben Johnson packing

17:55Sheil Kapadia:for the off season, I don't know that he would say anything at midfield, but I think at the press conference, maybe he does like one of these, like, yeah, I think we really benefited from sitting our starters in week 18. and then maybe he looks at one of the reporters and goes, you know, no one winks anymore, but maybe he brings back the wink a little bit and now that goes viral and now he's feeling good. You know what I'm thinking? And look, Ben Johnson, if you're listening to this, any coach, LeFleur, if you're listening to this, this is what you say. First line of the press conference, they go and they ask you, what did you think about this game?

18:31Sheil Kapadia:If you're Ben Johnson, you say, I told you, I like beating Matt LeFleur twice a year. But if you're Matt LaFleur and say, like, what'd you think about this game? He goes, I like beating Ben Johnson twice a year. It works for either one of them. It's out there for either one of them to escalate this by using that line from the introductory press conference. Again, just bring it right back. There's nothing wrong with that line. I love that. That was the third meeting, you know, so, but technically - You still beat him twice a year. It's still twice a year. And my favorite part about that hypothetical, Billy, as a former beat reporter, was your hypothetical question.

19:07what'd you think about this game?

19:08Sheil Kapadia:Yeah. You know, you're scribbling that down in the notebook. When you went into those, like how many of those did you have like written down? Like, oh, I don't know. Like, let me just throw out the cliche one here to get things started. Well, it actually depends on the team. Like in Seattle, it was a smaller group of reporters. So I felt like I would go in there and I was locked and loaded. I might've had five to 10 things written down. In Philadelphia, I'm like, I'm lucky. You know, my friends are going to be yelling over me this entire time. If I can get one to two questions in, that would be a miracle.

19:38So I didn't have to do as much prep there, but thank you for asking. I can't wait for this game, which is not on Fox, correct? Not on Fox.

19:45Sheil Kapadia:No, I think this is a prime game. You know what? Now I'm going to go out on a limit, say it's a prime game and it's not going to be a prime game. I'm going to do that thing where you see me looking to see exactly where this game is. You do that. We'll take a break. We'll take a break. Billy's going to look up. All right. He already got it. I thought it was going to be a tease. Bring them back. find out what channel the game's on, but that's okay. We're giving it to you now. That one's on Prime. We take a break. We come back. We talk 49ers-Eagles. The Ringer NFL Show is brought to you by FanDuel.

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