Power Ranking the NFC Contenders After Week 7

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. We are power ranking the NFC contenders today. We just watched the Lions, the Bucs, the Seahawks on Monday night, the doubleheader. Lions took care of business against Tampa. Mike Evans suffered a potential season ending injury, it sounds like. And the Seahawks with a very nice win over the Houston Texans. So the question is, where do we stand with the contenders in the NFC? To talk about it. We've got the Ringers, Steven Ruiz. We each ranked our top five contenders in the NFC. Didn't tell each other beforehand. Ruiz surprised me with his number five team.

0:42And I think I can get on board with the team he picked. So let's see if you agree or not. All right, we'll take a break. We'll come back and talk it through contenders in the NFC. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel. And if you're betting on the NFL, FanDuel's the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live, and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly. Download the FanDuel app or go to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming.

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2:59all right we're back on the ringer nfl show with steven ruiz we are power ranking the nfc contenders ruiz you're the guest so go ahead hit me hit me one through five contenders in the nfc i'll give you my five and then we'll talk about it all right i'm ready uh number one i'm going with the packers okay all right number two rams okay number three lions all right number four eagles okay and number five is where i'm gonna get you i think all right i'm going with the cowboys i you know what ruiz told me before we say he said i have a surprise for you and so i i was watching the seahawks texans game and i'm like this very boring my mind is wandering and i was like i know who he's gonna pick for five all right so part of this is a little bit boring ruiz because i got packers rams lions eagles in that exact order for one through four so let's start with the packers then i do want to get to the surprise there uh with the cowboys for sure but we both have the packers in the top spot now i watch the packers and i feel like they play with their food a little bit i watch them and i'm not like man they're this juggernaut and they're like they're a good team i think there's a higher ceiling for them they're four one and one uh only one lost team in the nfc and then you look at every number and it's like shield your eyes might be deceiving you because they are just up there in every offensive metric speaks to a team that's going to be there they can rush the passer with Micah Parson so do you have your eyes told you that the Packers are the best team in the NFC no without a doubt I'm in the same spot as you like when I went into the process of planning this out I did not expect the Packers to be number one but when you look at the numbers and I think it's the opposite of the conversation we were having last year with them especially on the defensive side where we're like all right the turnover thing the regression is coming now it feels like the opposite like you're going to get some positive regression I think they've only forced three turnovers and when you look at their stats though on early downs, like number one in points or yards allowed per play at 4.6.

4:46Number two, an explosive play rate. Yeah. And then when you just go early downs, number one in pass success rate on rundowns. 25th on conversion downs. So like third down, fourth down. And I think eventually with Michael Parsons out there half-league coordinating, I think you're going to see some positive regression there. And I think they can get in the top 10 by the end of this. And if they, offensively, ceiling is what? Top five for you? Absolutely. Right into their fourth inning per drive right now. So they could, yeah, they could finish it. If they finished as the top offense in the NFL, that wouldn't shock me.

5:15They're not there right now. My one concern with the offense is Matt LaFleur, which I think he's one of the best coaches in the NFL, but I do think he's afraid of what Jordan Love could do to their team, to their script. I think they're eighth in terms of pass rate under expectation. And last year they were down there as well. And that speaks to the playing with their food. I think if you let them cook a little bit, and I think they can blow out some of these teams. I think they let the Browns game just has burned into my mind in terms of playing with your food. that sort of thing. Yeah. They could have blown the Browns out by 20 points if they wanted to.

5:45But Matt LaFleur, I think he's, he just wanted to stay ahead and that was good enough for him. He doesn't want, it's, yeah, it's not like Mike McDonald and Sam Darnold level, but it's like, I don't want to be in a situation where after this game, I'm like, Jordan Love made some decision. We turned the ball over and that cost us the game. I think he's coached like that for a while now. And last year I thought, well, Jordan Love's got all these injuries. He's leaning on the run game. Now they're throwing a little bit more, but yes, They still, it seems like a LeFleur thing. This is how he wants to play with this specific quarterback.

6:16But man, their offense, just any first and explosive play rate, fourth in EPA per drive. So you look at it all. And again, maybe it's a good thing for Packers fans that like, it doesn't feel like they, it feels like there's still another level, yet they're still performing at a high rate. And I'm with you with the defense. It almost doesn't matter where they rank, like in any, in any metric at the end of the season. Cause when they get to the playoffs, you know, Micah Parsons, I think there was some talk like, oh yeah, he's been kind of quiet. And then this last game, I mean, he was dominant and now he leads the NFL in pressures.

6:47Literally first, second in quick pressure. So I think they just have the formula. They've got explosive offense, defense that limits explosive plays, pass rush, good coach, quarterback. We both like a lot. So yeah, I think I feel good about the Packers being there in the one team. One more stat on their offense. And this was a big deal last year. I remember talking about it on the pod all the time. playing man coverage and the need for Jordan Love to start scrambling. His scramble rate against man last year, 1.6%. This year, 10.9%. We got to give a shout out to Deontay. Deontay Lee was all over it.

7:19He was the first one, right? Yeah, he was the first one who was like, Jordan Love doesn't scramble. And I'm like, oh, he's right. Jordan Love doesn't scramble. But he does this year. He has this year. And here are the results. Last year, mine is 0.12 EPA per drop back against man. This year, 0.3 EPA per drop back against man. Yeah. They solved their biggest issue from last year in terms of offense and on defense, which was early down run defense, early down pass defense. Yeah, no, they are there for sure, even if it feels like watching them. I mean, you watch that Cardinals game and you're like, are these two evenly matched teams?

7:48Like, what's going on here? And they've got Jacoby Brissett. But I think that just speaks to probably the ebbs and flows of an NFL season. They're still 4-1-1. Again, every metric tells you they're a very good team. So we both have the Packers 1. Now, these next two, I had a little trouble. Like, you could flip them and I would be happy with that. Rams, we both have it two. Lions, we both have it three. Lions beat the Bucs on Monday night here. Nice win. It felt like they could have blown them out even worse, you know, offensively. They stumbled a little bit, but I just looked at it and I was deciding and I'm like, neutral field this Sunday.

8:24Who do I trust more? I'm like, I think I trust the Rams a little bit more. So why'd you go Rams over Lions? I went with the Rams. I was so surprised by the Lions run game stats because it feels like their run game has been better than that. Maybe it's recency bias after watching them, after Jameer Gibbs ripped off a couple of most electric running back in the league right now. He reminds me of Saquon. That game tonight, I was like, that reminds me of Saquon last year where you're like, it's inevitable. At some point in this game, he's going to do something. And then when he does it, you're just like, for an NFL player to be moving at a different pace or just be like, he's more athletic, he's faster than everyone else on the field.

9:02That was one of the best performances of the year. Maybe I'm going too far, but I think he has a little more juice than even Saquon had last year in the open field. Like, I think Saquon could, like, break a tackle and make a guy miss and then gone. But, like, yeah. Okay. So, the Rams are ninth in success rate in terms of running. Which, like, their EPA is, I think, middle of the pack because of the fumbles, especially in the red zone, the 49ers game. But if you can get that going, you're going to take the teeth out of the pass rush. And if you take the teeth out of the pass rush, that passing game with Nakua back, it's going to cook.

9:32Like, we saw, like, Like Matthew Stafford is playing as well as any quarterback in the league except for Dak Prescott for me right now. Maybe Pat Mahomes I'd put up there after the last couple weeks. But when you have a quarterback like that, if he stays healthy, if his back is healthy in January, which I think Sean McVay realizes I just got to get him to January. We talked about that at the end, how they handled the end of the regular season last year. I don't know if there's a quarterback in the NFC that can go throw for throw with him outside of Dak Prescott. The high-level throws for sure.

10:01It's the matter of, like you said, Can he do it for a 17-game season and in the playoffs? But they feel like a very complete team right now. Like you said, they can run the ball. We know Stafford, if they're behind or something, he can make high degree of difficulty throws. You have a coach who's been to the Super Bowl twice, has won a Super Bowl before. And then defensively, they're first in EPA per drive. When I was prepping for this, I'm like, wait, did I mess up something with the filters? I knew they were having a good season. I didn't realize it was that good. So even if you don't think their defense is going to stay at that level, they're going to be able to rush the passer.

10:35I think Chris Shula has done it. Even last year when the stats weren't that good, I'm like, he is doing stuff that I'm like, all right, he's trying to maximize what they have here. So yeah, you have the veteran quarterback, veteran coach. If they can just keep Stafford, it's so funny. We spent so much time in the summer. Like, we all got scared. At least I did. We all got scared off by the Rams. It's like, is Stafford going to be healthy? Well, they were open to trading him and now he's back there. And it's like, I don't know. There's not many better teams in the NFL right now. The concern with them is the quarterbacks.

11:04The quarterbacks on the outside. I know. It hasn't fit them yet, but maybe against a better competition. Yeah, they're built like us. Like, they're not any taller than us. And, like, we saw that in the Eagles game. It was an issue in the Eagles game when they were just like, oh, wait, we have A.J. Brown. He was a monster. And we could just throw the ball up to him. But I don't know which NFC powers can really take advantage of that. The Packers aren't going to do it. We talked about how their offense is kind of set up. Yeah. The Eagles are the one team that can do it, but that's like a week-to-week proposition.

11:28Who knows if they're going to try to do it? The Cowboys, they could probably do it. Like George Pickens with Pickens. Yeah, CeeDee Lamb. The Lions aren't going to try to do it. So like that's a concern against, I think, the AFC teams, but I'm not sure about in the NFC playoffs. Okay, so we both trust the Rams a little bit more than the Lions. Lions, 5-2, plus 64 point differential, second in the NFL. This is weird. They have not played a game decided by seven points or fewer. That's insane. So they got blown out twice and then they've blown teams out five times. They've had the fifth hardest schedule in the NFL.

12:05I was very impressed with, I made sure to claim Kelvin Shepard for the normies. I didn't want the hipsters to be like, he's our guy. And I think he's doing an awesome job. I mean, their whole secondary was out in this game Monday night and Troy Aikman, I mean, called it. Did you hear what he said? What did he say? He said it's one of the best. One of the best defensive. He says it's one of the best defensive performances he's ever seen. I love when Aik was just like, I'm going full. Like, I'm not couching. Were you the one that brought up the Robert Woods thing when he called him the best receiver?

12:33Yeah, he once said Robert Woods was the best receiver in the NFL. But it was a very impressive defensive performance. Playing with those backups, Aleem McNeil comes back. So they're also a very complete team that I think is going to be there in the end. I just had them, you know, if I had to pick right now, I trust them a little bit less maybe than the top two teams. Yeah, and the impressive thing about the Monday night game was how much man coverage they played against a team that should have overmatched them. Like, they should have overpowered them. I know Mike Evans ended up going out, but they had to, and Ibuka wasn't fully healthy.

13:02But to play man coverage when you're depleted like that, that's like an identity thing. And that's been the thing with them. Like, it doesn't matter who they lose, coordinators. We saw with the defense last year, they're going to play man coverage, which is like a high-stress style of play. And it just works. I think in the playoffs, you have to be able to play tight man coverage, and they've proven they can do that. Yeah, no doubt. We mentioned Gibbs. Like, it's just... I mean, he just feels like when your offense is stuck, it's just like, man, even the, I mean, as a pass catcher, he had like the 30-yarder on the first possession where it's just like, man, he's running away from guys.

13:34And then, of course, he had the long run. Later, it felt like he could break a couple other ones, too. It's easy access stuff, too. Like, it's not like the, the Eagles had that offense line. We saw, like, the offensive line isn't run blocking as well this year. And, like, we see the effect on Saquon. But if you could just throw a dump off to Jameer Gibbs, he could take it 40 yards. And we saw that multiple times tonight. Yeah, incredible. All right, so I can't believe we both have the same top four here. Okay, four, we've both got the Eagles. Austin and I talked about the Eagles on yesterday's episode.

14:04I talked about the Eagles for an hour on the Ringers Philly special. I was looking up, so where are you with the Eagles right now? Because you've always been like their talent is going to just kind of overpower a lot of teams is where you've been. And that's the thing that just matters. I don't care about any of the questions. come January when you have Jalen Carter in the middle, like I don't care about the edge rushers. I don't care how well they're playing. When you have that secondary, like the guys that they can match up with and kind of take some players out of the game with Mitchell and the way they tackle, the way they limit Yak, I think that's a big deal in the NFC.

14:39I don't know about the AFC when you have like these quarterbacks who could just like take over a game. In the NFC, you have these quarterbacks that are system-reliant and a lot of those systems rely on Yak. So I think, and then Jalen Hurts is going to show up a couple games in the playoffs. You just need him for two games in the playoffs. We saw that last year. Like even if he has two stinkers or two quiet games like he had against the Rams, they can survive it. The question is, does the run game come back by January? I would bet on it. Okay. I would bet on it. I'm not counting out Stoutman. If the O-line gets healthy, if they do more quarterback run stuff when the stakes are a little bit higher, I think that's a big deal.

15:14They haven't really leaned into that. Now, there are some numbers that are like, They're a little, the Eagles are a little, the numbers aren't there. Numbers aren't good. They're five and two. Their point differential is a plus five. They're five and one in one score games. I mean, these are the things we always point out and are like, do not trust this team at all. They've been out gained in every game this season. So I still think it can kind of go either way with them. I mean, they are a Jekyll and Hyde team. You don't know who's going to show up. They've had the second hardest schedule in the NFL.

15:43So that's something where you say, all right, you show in one score games. but if you're playing good teams, you're going to probably play close games. So I'm not sure with them, even defensively right now. I think they have a chance to figure it out, but they are one of those teams that have been very turnover reliant. I mean, they're not good against the run. Their pass rush isn't good. They have a question at second cornerback. They have a question at edge. Like there's a lot of, there are a lot of questions with this team. So I'm with you. I think they have time to figure it out. They're talented.

16:10They've got this cushion in the NFC East where they're five and two. I still kind of think it could go either way for them though. Yeah, I was going to ask. If we didn't set a number on this, we didn't say, all right, you need five teams. And we just said teams that can win the Super Bowl. Are they on your list? They are. Yeah, because I'm with your point. It's just like they're so talented that if there's just a scenario where they figure it out or just like you said, a playoff scenario where they get in and they're playing at home, they've done that before and they just have to get hot for a couple of games.

16:36And we do so much hand-wringing about the coaching. I feel like coaching is just overrated at this point for me. I'm a talent guy. I'm just like, if you have the talent, like, they're NFL coaches at the end of the day. They're going to figure something out that works. We saw that last year with Kellen Moore. Did you watch Nick Kelly coached on Monday night? All right, that's an exception. There is an exception. There's an exception. Sorry for the drive-by, but yeah. He doesn't have talent either. Okay? Maybe, all right, so is the, maybe the coaching take is like, there are, there's a group over here that really matter because they're really good.

17:08Yeah. There's a group over here that matter because they suck. But there's a larger group in the middle that we overrate that these guys are good, but they really just have good players. And we're saying these guys are bad. I think I'm with you there. Yeah. Yeah. Right. That's kind of what you're saying. I feel like. Yeah. I don't think there's a meaningful difference between Zach Taylor and Nick Sirianni. But I don't think there needs to be. Yeah. Because of the teams I have. Yeah. Maybe that's a show. The middle group of coaches where like, do they matter? There are three coaches that matter.

17:41Let's be honest. Sean McVay, Andy Reid, and Kyle Shanahan. Dan Campbell, I'll throw them in there. Okay. I'm trying to think off the top of my head whether I, all right, now I got to I'm definitely forgetting something. Now I got to go to the standings. No, I think you probably hit on, I'm looking at the NFC. LeFleur, maybe. I think that's right. Yeah, LeFleur, I think belongs on there. He gets in his own way though. Yeah, you've soured on him a little bit. it's not that it's a Shanahan thing where it's like he's obviously great but like there's just something that you feel like is holding him back okay the need to impress his friends I think yeah you had a good call with that some of these guys if I see another outside zone run from shotgun like I feel like that's like their fetish that coaching it was like we just want to figure out how to run outside zone from shotgun and the first one to do it wins they win the group chat first one to do it gets the heart reactions on the group chat so does Shane Steichen matter this year oh 100 he does i'm adding sean payton's on the list of coaches that matter yeah but bonix is his quarterback so no but just in general i think he does he definitely matters you don't think all right okay five years ago maybe i don't want to go too deep that this feels like a show a separate episode we could do here all right let's take a break and then we get to the fun conversation here which is like who's five because i have seahawks you have cowboys we didn't mention bucks we didn't mention 49ers let's figure out who else on this list can actually get to the Super Bowl.

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20:25Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. All right, we're back on the Ring Around NFL show. All right, Cowboys was an inspired selection. They're three, three, and one. Make the case. What do you got? They have the best, the quarterback who's playing the best football in the league right now in Dak Prescott. They have an offense that's going to get healthier on the offensive line. Their running game is like fun to watch. It's dominant. The receivers, I don't know who can match up with them. Anyone in the, is there a cornerback group in the league that can match up with them, especially with the way Dak is playing?

20:54The way they complement each other too is awesome. Exactly, yeah. And that's what they need. They needed that George Pickens downfield vertical threat on the outside. They got that. He's been everything they wanted him to be. And then the other part of his defensive regression. There's going to be some defensive... They're not going to be the worst defense for the rest of the year. We saw it last week already, kind of. We've seen it with the Cowboys. The one year where they had Mike Nolan was the defensive coordinator. Remember this? And they, like, for the first month of the season, just, like, the worst defense we've ever seen.

21:20And then, over the second half, average defense. So, if they can get to, like, 20th, and they get in a shootout in the playoffs, they can beat any team in the NFL. Or in the NFC. I would love to strongly disagree with you, but as I was doing my prep, I'm like, They absolutely have a case. I mean, to your point, Dak Prescott's playing better than any quarterback in the conference. Their offense, just in general. I mean, here's the take. There's not that much different between the Cowboys and the Colts right now. I mean, there's... I'm right there with you. Okay, I'm looking. You can look at it, and offensively, the Colts have been better, but not by like a crazy...

21:56Colts are first in EPA per drive. Cowboys are second in EPA per drive. Then I'm looking at defense. All right, well, which defense is better? success rate is very similar the colts are producing more turnovers on defense like that's the biggest difference and then there's little stuff on the margins and we're talking about the the culture are the one seed in the afc and the cowboys aren't getting a mention but if your offense is that good you always have a chance and to your they should try to they should play a more volatile sort of even flus won't do it he did a little bit of it last week right they get a little A little more aggressive, but yes.

22:32They should not be playing like, all right, let's not. They should be trying to create turnovers, sacks, negative plays, and then the offense can cook. Their offense has been incredible. It has. Do you know what they need? Michael Parsons. I've said it a million times. I put a moratorium on myself. I can't have that taken anymore. No, you should say it every podcast episode. It is. When I looked up today that he's first in pressures in the entire NFL, and I'm like, this could have been. This actually could have been. Insane trade when you consider how their defense was going to operate, where we're going to rush four and we're going to play soft zone.

23:06Like, you need a pass rush to do that. And they said, no, we need Kenny Clark. They're going to make a crazy trade, though. I feel like Jerry keeps referencing this, you know, like, hey, well, we got those. But he does that. All right. But if maybe someone, like, maybe there's someone in the building like us saying, like, your offense is, like, one of the best offenses you've had. And the NFC is kind of wide open. You have a chance this year. So I don't think you're crazy. with the Cowboys. I put Seahawks at five. Let's see where you're at with the Seahawks here. They got a nice win against the Texans where, again, that felt like, it felt like a miracle when the Texans completed a pass.

23:39Yes. And the Seahawks don't even have their whole defense healthy right now. Eamon Worry looks like, I mean, he made a couple plays in that game that were incredible. They're a rookie. So I like their defense. We both trust Mike McDonald, one of the best defensive schemers in the NFL. Offense, I've spent a lot of time on this pod talking about Sam Darnold where I've kind of warmed up to him this year. He had, you know, as you would say, a Bozo play there in the end zone with the fumble. But I still think, I mean, JSN's open on every play. I don't know how, but he's open on every play. So I have them in the mix at five.