Predicting the AFC Playoff Field After a Wild Week 10!

0:00Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Where are we with the AFC playoff picture? After 10 weeks, that's what we're talking about today. Patriots with a big win in Tampa. Bills get stomped by the Dolphins. Ravens, a much needed win in Minnesota. And the Chargers just smoked the Steelers on Sunday night. So where are we now? Where are we going to be at season's end? Let's make some predictions. to do that. We've got my friend Deontay Lee. We will talk about the AFC playoff picture after the break. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel. The best place to bet the NFL all season long.

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2:01Diante Lee:All right, we are back with Deontay Lee talking AFC playoff picture after week 10. Deontay, let me give you what it would be right now. So if the playoffs started today, the Colts would be the first seed. Then the Broncos, Patriots, and Steelers as the other division winners. And the wild cards would be the Chargers, the Bills, and the Jaguars in that order. Unless, of course, you know, the commissioner was like, after that Jaguars game, you cannot be in the playoffs. I'm sorry, which is which is possible. He could incorporate that rule. So those are the seven. Now we're going to start with the division winners.

2:36Diante Lee:We haven't told each other what our picks are yet. We're going to say what we think the division winners are going to be at the end of the season. And Deontay, I've only got two of those four division winners hanging on. And I'm going to start with the one seed. I think the Patriots are going to be the one seed in the AFC. I can't believe I'm saying this. If you would have told me in August that this was going to be my take after week 10, I would have thought something very weird, something horribly wrong went on with some of these quarterbacks in the AFC. But as I went through this exercise, they're eight and two.

3:11Diante Lee:They have the second easiest remaining schedule according to the betting market. So like even if they go five and two the rest of the way, which I think seems reasonable, they're going to go 13 and four. And I think 13 wins would be good enough to win the one seed. So I've got chief says the one seed. I'm sorry. Patriot says the one seed. Chief says the two seed. Colt says the three seed and a Ravens as the four seed. Those are my four division winners. What do you have? That's the same. What do you have? That's different. I think that we're going to have the same four division winners. it's actually funny doing this exercise now so much of this turns into a math game right once you kind of cross that midway point you start you start counting presumed right presume what we presume to be certain wins and then like from there i kind of try to play play within like a half game or so of how whether i think where i think a team is going to land so i think we're going to be pretty aligned here the only thing is that i'm flipping my one seat to the indianapolis colts i think that they have a little bit tougher of like a prove it stretch right you're going to have to see Seattle.

4:16You've got to see Kansas city. You still got a few divisional games. That could be tricky with Jacksonville and Houston, but I like what I've seen from them so far this year. I think the first half of a Sunday's game, notwithstanding, right? I think that for the most part, they played pretty well.

4:29Diante Lee:And then you really think the Colts are hanging on for the one seat. If I told you, you pick one seat, one team right now, you know, your life savings depends on it. You're going with the Colts. I am because I don't trust Jacksonville. I don't trust Houston. I think they can beat San Francisco. And I think that if you're able to get to the, if you get to end of December, early January with 11, 12 wins, which I do think is a legitimately aspirant, not just an aspirational goal, but an attainable one for Indianapolis, they should be able to cruise, I think, to 12, 13 wins, which will have them right there to potentially be the top overall seat, not just in the AFC, but in the NFL overall.

5:10And then for two, for me, I've got New England. I think they'll be right around that kind of 12, 13 win because they've got the Jets, they've got the Bengals, they've got the Giants. Honestly, their December 14th game against the Bills could basically be to seal their spot in the playoffs, right? Like they could be one of those teams that's cruising pretty quickly. And then I would say my third and fourth season would be Denver and Baltimore, right? I think that Denver is very well positioned. As a matter of fact, of our division winners, I think they've kind of got the clearest pathway to feeling safe and secure about their spot in the playoffs because as long as they handle business against Washington and Vegas, they can kind of coast, right?

5:45Like they can honestly get swept by Kansas City, split their series with the Chargers and be able to kind of waltz into the playoffs. So, and as an AFC West winner. So I feel pretty good about that top four with Baltimore kind of rounding it out because they've got such a light schedule. But I do think Indianapolis is going to hold on to the one seed. And I think that New England and Denver are going to cruise basically to two and three.

6:07Diante Lee:All right, this is good. We disagree on a couple of these. So I'm happy about that. All right, I'm taking the other side on the Colts thing. I, you mentioned it. Their remaining schedule is pretty tough. They're at the chiefs at the Seahawks. They face that Texans defense twice. They've got the 49ers. I don't think they're going to be the one seed. I think they're going to come down to earth a little bit in the second half of this. I think they're a good team. Don't get me wrong. I mean, they put up 519 yards of offense. However, what's the thing we've seen with Daniel Jones in the past? It's the negative place.

6:40Diante Lee:I mean, he fumbled three times in this game was intercepted once. And the week before we saw against the Steelers team, which looked awful on Sunday night. They lose to that team the week before the last two games, Daniel Jones, six fumbles, four interceptions. Again, I think they're a good team. I think they can move the football on most opponents, but I think this is going to get a little like up and down for them in the second half of the season where I see them more as like an 11 win team that's going to be playing well. and you're going to go, all right, they don't look quite as good as they did early in the season, but they're still winning the division.

7:16Diante Lee:They're still hosting a playoff game in the first round, but I will be surprised if they cruise to the one seed, I could be wrong. I, I faded them before and been wrong, but that will really surprise me if when all is said and done, they finish with the one seed. I think that's fair. I guess that for me, like the idea of playing San Francisco doesn't really strike as much fear in my heart with the status of their defense, especially coming off what we just saw on Sunday against the Rams, right? They were kind of able to move the ball at will and were able to get stops against the 49ers offense that had really been finding something that worked in October.

7:50And I think that now they're kind of starting to hit that wall as teams are adjusting to more of the quick game or the underneath stuff, more of the force feeding to Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle and all that. So I think the Indianapolis can handle a team like that. And then based off what I've seen from Houston and Jacksonville, I think it's entirely possible that Indianapolis sweeps both of those teams, if you had to rank competence in the AFC South, there is a sizable gap to me between Indianapolis and the rest of their competition in their division.

8:17Diante Lee:If you're just a dumb team, not dumb teams, not dumb teams. If we got to boil it down to those binaries, I think that you would say that there's a pretty big gap between Indianapolis and the rest of their competition. And that's considering some of the turnovers that you mentioned over the last couple of weeks. I do think from a narrative perspective, we are probably about as close to rock bottom as we'll get for Indianapolis because they've had these two games and they've got to see Kansas City and Houston, right? So this four-game stretch basically from the Pittsburgh game last week all the way up to the Texans game at the end of November, we could be talking about like, oh my God, what's wrong with this offense?

8:52They can't, they're not getting the explosive plays in the passing game as often. Maybe, you know, Kansas City really sells out to stop the run and they have a really rough game against the Chiefs in that respect. And then after that, I think that they can kind of they can kind of cruise. And the result of the Seattle game really won't tell us anything about this team either way. That's not a game that they have to win. That's not a game that they have to play their best in. It will be a bellwether game, I think, for us as analysts and fans to see which of those two teams are real. But this team could very easily be in December feeling like we've already got our division sewn up.

9:25We can probably play New England game for game, you know, to try to win the one seed. And if they don't get it, I think that'll be fine. I just don't think they'll be further than a game away from getting the one seat in the AFC.

9:35Diante Lee:All right. I like it. We disagree on the Colts. Deontay thinks they're going to kind of keep up this pace as much as they need to, to get that one seat. I don't. And then come on, Deontay, the Broncos are not winning the AFC West. The chiefs are winning the AFC West. Come on. They are a better team than the Broncos. They still get to play Denver twice. I mean, we watched, I don't, maybe you didn't watch that game on Thursday night. If you didn't more power to you. I suffer to do that. You want it on the record? Okay. I mean, the Chiefs get the Broncos twice. They get the Chargers at home. Now, I hear why you're picking the Broncos.

10:10Diante Lee:I mean, the Chiefs have dug themselves a bit of a hole here. They're five and four. Neither of us are picking the Chargers who are seven and three. And the Broncos are eight and two. So there is space to be made up there. But I kind of feel about the Broncos similarly to what I just mentioned with the Colts. I mean, when I watched that offense and we're now going into week 11 here, you know, I, I was trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. All right. They're winning games. Let's see what it looks like. Let's see what it looks like. And there's still a chance. It looks a lot better, but Bo Nix right now is 31st in drop back success rate.

10:44Diante Lee:The only quarterbacks less likely to produce a positive result when they have to pass our cam word and Dylan Gabriel. That is not the profile of a team that is holding off Patrick behind Justin Fields is nasty. That's a nasty place to be. It's nasty. It's not a good place to be. All due respect, Justin. Yeah, so I cannot in good conscience pick that team to hold off Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the AFC West. Tell me why I'm wrong. I think we'll have, I think, more extensive conversations about Kansas City once we get to the wild card, right? Because as you can see, I don't have them in my division winners.

11:20I think that so much of this for me, this exercise for me is more about margin for error than anything, right? And this is where I think that for as bad as this offense has looked, those fourth quarter comebacks will really come to kind of save Denver's skin in the playoff picture. The fact that they didn't blow that game to the Giants, the fact that they were able to put up all those second half points against the Cowboys, that they were able to eke out that win against the Texans, right? Those games end up mattering in this scenario. All right, now we both have the Ravens,

11:48Diante Lee:which is just like a hipster podcast to remove where this team's four and five. And we're like, of course, the Ravens. Now, I feel pretty good about it. And we both have the Patriots who are eight and two. Now the bills are six and three. They still play each other. Again, the bills have the history, the pedigree. How confident did you feel in those two picks Patriots over bills and Ravens leapfrogging the Steelers Patriots? I feel great about because of how soft their schedule is, right? Like I said, by the time they see Buffalo again, that could basically be for the fate of the AFC East, right?

12:21They might be a 10, 11 win team, especially if they beat all three of New York, Cincinnati, both New York teams and Cincinnati, and come into that game at 11-2. That could basically be to seal it. Honestly, that could be confirmation of what you said earlier in the show. That game could be for the number one overall seed in the AFC, right, if they're able to win that game. So I feel pretty solid about them over Buffalo. On the other end, I think that it's easy for us to look at what Baltimore has done over the last three weeks and feel great about their trajectory right now. And the schedule is soft.

12:51Don't get me wrong. You get Cincinnati twice. You get the Steelers twice, which gives you an opportunity to really seal your tie-breaking fate. You get Cleveland and you get the Jets, right? That's entirely possible that they win all six of those games. The problem is, is that there's really no margin for error in spite of how soft the schedule is. If they get to mid-December and that game against the Packers and that game against the Patriots are must-win games for their playoff lives, more often, like I would say if we were simulating this out, more often than not, they'd end up missing the playoffs if that's the case.

13:22If they go into that last three-game stretch against the Packers, Patriots, and then their second game against the Steelers, and all three are must-wins, I think they're going to be in a bad spot. They're going to need some help from Pittsburgh, but I do think they should be able to handle their lighter games against the Browns, against the Bengals, and against the Jets. And then from there, they've just got to be on their P's and Q's when they see other contenders across the NFL.

13:42Diante Lee:Yeah, they're in a nice spot in that they play the Steelers twice here, and it could be one of the—who knows how many wins is actually going to win that division. And it's not like they were perfect today against Minnesota. You know, it was kind of like one of those old school, like they were creating turnovers, winning on special teams. I just go back to when Lamar Jackson starts a game for them. They they're 72 and 27. They don't lose. So it's like, it's easy for me to get to, they're going to go six and two or seven and one down the stretch. Like you mentioned with that schedule. So yeah, I feel, I don't have to think twice about that.

14:15Diante Lee:Maybe it's just because we watched that Steelers, you know, the Steelers play here on Sunday night, but there's no part of me that's second guessing that. And then the Patriots, I mean, that was a big win for them today. And Drake may is going to get a lot of the headlines this week. And Drake may has been awesome. He made some unbelievable plays in this game, the pocket management, the accuracy downfield. I mean, it was incredible, but I thought Deontay, this was a huge win for the Patriots because it was what happened after he threw that interception where, you know, you look at that. And if other things play out differently, we're going, Oh man, Drake may wasn't ready for this spot and he threw the interception with five minutes left.

14:53Diante Lee:But after that, their defense gets a stop and then Travion Henderson with a 69 yard touchdown run. So I've always had this question all year. Like I believe what I'm seeing with Drake may, but like the rest of this team, I don't know. Can they, are there, can they win in different ways? I thought there was a big win for them in that they showed, Hey, we do have other areas of this team. They're not perfect, but like in a big spot that they can come through for us. You made exactly the point that I was going to make, right? The question we have of New England is, do you have other avenues outside of Drake May to win football games?

15:25And we finally saw them dust off Travion Henderson, and he's able to deliver immediately with explosive runs. Tampa Bay's run defense is usually pretty good, right? And I thought early in the game, at least, they were really loading up the line of scrimmage, not allowing New England to get ahead of steam. Even in short yardage situations, when you knew that New England was going to play with heavier bodies, I thought the Tampa Bay handled themselves well. I thought that within the flow of the game, Josh McDaniels did a good job at finding those opportunities to crack open that defense in the run game.

15:53And then Travion Henderson, I think, is going to be a big difference maker down the stretch. I think that for me, this again, and maybe this is just a story of the AFC in general, right? The teams that we're talking about at the top of this conference are all extremely flawed. Right. I do think that New England can be a 13 win team. Do I view them as the same kind of 13 win team that Philadelphia was in 2022? too? No. Do I view them as a kind of 13 win team that Kansas city has been at their best? No, but it might not matter, right? Because they've got the wins against the softer teams on their schedule.

16:24And that's exactly what you're going to have to do to be able to seal those home games. Once you get to the post season, I feel okay about them. I think that they are solidly a playoff team because of how well Drake may has been playing. I just don't know, man, when they're playing up against top competition, whether or not we can rely upon what we saw in the second half of Sunday's game. And I'm just going to need more evidence that we're not going to get because they have such a light schedule the rest of the way.

16:48Diante Lee:Yeah, it really is one of these easiest schedules in the NFL. If they don't trip themselves up, they really do have a great path to the one seed. And if you're the one seed and you host games in the playoffs and you get a buy any team that wins the one seed, regardless of what you think of them, they got a chance to win the Superbowl because it is such an advantage in that way. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Let's find out who Deontay has as his wildcard teams. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel is changing the way you live bet football, and it starts with NextDrive SGPs.

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18:02Diante Lee:Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Apple. Before it was Ringer NFL, it was just an idea. I started with just a mic and a Mac and the need to discuss all things football. We thought, are we going to do a daily show? Are we going to change the logo? Where are the guests going to be? Where are the topics going to be? Listen, we're still figuring it out. But no matter what you have an idea for, whether it's creating your own commentary on this week's games, starting a platform for your take on sports, or even founding your own league, go for it.

18:46Diante Lee:You just need to get started. Your great ideas start on Mac. Find out more on apple.com slash Mac. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. All right, Deontay, I'll start. Okay, I've got the Bills at five. We can talk about what we saw today, how concerned we are with them. We agree there. Okay. I've got the Broncos six. So I had the chiefs winning the division. Do you have the chiefs at six or no? Finish your list. I want to hear. Okay. I got the Broncos six and I have the chargers seven after that win on Sunday night. So I've got bills, Broncos chargers. What do you got? Okay. I'm glad that I wanted you to finish your list.

19:29Cause I want to give you mine. And then I think there's a larger discussion from there. So five, as I said, we agree, Buffalo. Six, I have the Chargers. And then seven, I have the Jacksonville Jaguars as a seventh seed. I have the Jacksonville Jaguars as a seventh seed.

19:46Diante Lee:You did not say the Kansas City Chiefs and you just said Jacksonville Jaguars. I did. Now, I'm saying I think that this is a larger conversation that we should have about the playoff picture stands right now, right? And I'm not saying that if we had to put, you know, a meal or two on it, that this is what I would land on. Maybe this is a little bit of argument's sake, but I think that there is a solid foundation for this playing out the rest of the way down the season. Okay, what's the case? Give me the case. I need to hear this. So at the center of it, it said Jacksonville owns a tiebreaker. And I think that that is what's going to come.

20:23Diante Lee:Jacksonville also owns the dumbest team in the NFL. I just want to be clear. No argument. No argument coming from Lemon Grove, California on that one. Okay. I want to make that abundantly clear. This is not in any way a vote of confidence for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Okay. Especially based off of what we've seen from them over the last few weeks on the field, but them owning the tiebreaker, I think is going to loom large. And then I think that for them, they've got the Titans twice. You get to play the Jets. You get to play the Cardinals who are kind of adrift right now. And I think that really they're going an opportunity.

20:56if they're able to handle their business in those four games that I mentioned, their golden opportunity, I think, is next week against the Chargers. If you go out and you beat the Chargers, now you've really got a chance, I think, to own your fate in the AFC wildcard race because now you would have wildcard tiebreakers over both AFC West teams that we're talking about here between the Chargers and the Chiefs. And then on the other end of it, while I trust wholeheartedly Kansas City, I wholeheartedly trust Kansas City, I actually have their win projection for me at nine and a half and Jacksonville's at eight and a half.

21:30I just gave Jacksonville the jump because they own the tie break. But they do have to play the Broncos twice. They do have to beat the Colts. They do have to beat the Chargers. And then they've got these two absolutely cannot lose games against the Texans and Cowboys. Those are the two games to me. If they go out and they blow out those two teams, and I think they play both in November, then we can come back to this conversation. I will say, OK, they're fine. I think that they'll be able to get the wins that they need. I can totally see Jacksonville taking a step back and they're able to sneak in as a seven seed.