Predicting the Divisional Round NFL Headlines

0:005 a.m. I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink. Running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change, and head to work. Meetings, workshops. One more Celsius, no slowing down. Working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing. Celsius. Live. Fit. Go. Grab a cold, refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius.com.

0:30Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I am your host, Shiel Kapadia. It is divisional round weekend. We are going on the record with predictions. Saturday, we got Bills at Broncos and 49ers at Seahawks. And then Sunday, Texans at Patriots, Rams at Bears. My guest today is the Ringer's Austin Gale. We will predict headlines and storylines for all four games. And then I will finish the show with my Ringer 107 picks. All right, let's take a break. We come back with Austin. The Ringer NFL show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play.

1:13Austin Gayle:Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash Ringer NFL to get started. 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

1:51Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here with Austin Gale. We are predicting headlines for the divisional round, Austin. Let's start. Bills at Broncos. As of this recording, we got a little line flip here where Bills were favored by one and a half. Now it's Broncos by one and a half. You are the guest. You get us started. What do you got for this game? I went for a movie title theme with a lot of my headlines. I also, I think one of them's not technically a movie title, but it could have been. This first one, Cowboys vs. Alien. There was a movie that came out a while ago, Cowboys vs. Aliens. I don't know if anyone saw that, but I do think that this is a bunch of rough and rowdy cowboys.

2:27the healthier team, a team that I think on paper, both sides of the ball is healthier, more talented. And I think there is like a coaching advantage I do give to Sean Payton, especially coming off of the bye week. They're at home against what feels like one guy left, right? It's Josh Allen who put the cape on last week and you can kind of feel like he can take over games. And as someone who is backing the Jaguars, we went on this podcast and talked about how I think the Jaguars could win this game, especially at home. I really felt like I was on the wrong side as soon as it was one possession and he had the ball and I'm like okay this isn't going to go well like they get the ball back with four minutes left against Jacksonville and I'm like damn they're going to lose this I think Jacksonville is going to lose this one because Josh Allen at the end of the day even though a ton of receivers are hurt the offense has struggled to run the ball all day he is the guy that can eventually just like figure it out and find it and for me this this Broncos team should win and I actually agree with the line flip going to the Broncos because they're the healthier team like I said and I think they're just better positioned across the board to beat up on a very beat up Bills team.

3:24The alien could prove me wrong again, but I am backing the Broncos in this spot.

3:30Austin Gayle:I love that. It's much more creative than mine. Yours are going to be much more creative than mine. Mine's boring, but you know what? We are on the same page. I just have battered Allen finds a way, keeps Buffalo's Super Bowl hopes alive. And I had the exact same analysis as you. I looked at it and I'm breaking down the splits. I'm looking at it that the Broncos play all this man coverage. And guess what the Bills struggle with? man coverage and the Bills want to run the ball. We know that. That's their kind of identity this year. It's not a Josh Allen put the cape on every week. It's if we can run the ball with James Cook, that's what we want to do.

4:02Austin Gayle:And guess what defense is great against the run? It's the Broncos. And I just, I'm going matchup by matchup, well-rested. Bronco, Bill's lost two wide receivers in that game last week, Austin. Terrell Shavers and Gabe Davis are both out for this game. They've just been cycling in different guys week in and week out. and I looked at all that stuff on paper and then I did what you did. And I said, you know what? I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl before the season. I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs. They still have Josh Allen who in that game last week, it was just a reminder that in these playoffs, there's Josh Allen and there's everyone else as far as I'm concerned, just in terms of who can actually take a game over.

4:42Austin Gayle:So I like the Bills here as well, but man, I don't feel good about it. If you're a Broncos fan and you should feel good about this matchup. If you have the team that you think you have, that Sean Payton has said that you have, they really should win this game on paper. I think the difference for me and why I like, I'm ultimately siding with the Broncos and going against him kind of overcoming this, even though I know that's completely possible, is I think that we overrated the Jacksonville defense going into that Bills game last week. It was a very turnover-dependent defense, closer to the Chicago Bears in terms of how much they've been relying on turning the ball over to create havoc plays on defense.

5:16And you felt that in the secondary. like as much as we talked about how like I think Jacksonville can stop the run I think they did a good job I think Denver is right there with them I think they're just better on the back end in terms of just like sound and creating pressure up front I think they have a better pass rush than what the Jacksonville Jaguars had and I think you're going to feel that in this game too and I think their secondary is just ultimately more talented with Patrick Sertan being their main corner but also more disciplined and and offensively I think this is I want to ask you like how much better is Bo Nix now than he was last year or at the start of this season than when they played last year and how much better has he gotten I think over the course of the season

5:48Austin Gayle:he is better if we're doing trust rankings. He's not going to be at the top for me, you know, but I love that you brought up last year's playoff game because I remember watching that game being like, Sean Payton doesn't trust him at all. Like he's not letting it, you know, they had the big play early, I remember. And then after that, I'm like, man, they're just trying to like hide Bo Nix here and you can't win this way. So I do think that's a little bit different this year, but still it has been up and down, you know, statistically just, I think he's what, 13th in EPA per pass play. Like he's been middle of the pack.

6:18Austin Gayle:They want to hit the screens. They want to hit the deep shots. And this Bill's defense, it's not a great defense, but there's a big difference between Bill's run defense and Bill's pass defense. Like you can run on the bill. Basically every team has a big day running the football against the Bills. But we saw last week at times, Trevor Lawrence made his place in the second half, but Tredavious White showed up in that game and they are kind of sound on the back end with their coverages, even if they're not the most talented group. So I'm not like, I would be surprised if we're coming out of this game going, Bo Nix just lit up the Bills defense.

6:52Austin Gayle:I don't think that's going to happen. I think it's, I think they're going to go into this saying, can we run the football on the Bills? Like every team does. And maybe that'll be the key on whether they win this game or not. I think for me with Knicks, you still see these instances where he gets panicky in the pocket, runs from a clean pocket out and kind of into pressure. And I think the biggest thing with him, I think since entering the league, has been his inaccuracy downfield. And a lot of that I think has to do with setting his feet. You go back and watch that last year's game or even the last few games, there are times where he's just missing checkdowns.

7:23He's missing guys downfield because his feet aren't set or whatever. I think there's less of that.

7:27Austin Gayle:Yeah, on one hand, Broncos fans are probably like, we don't love this draw. We have to, great, we've got the one seed and now we have to face Josh Allen. But on the other hand, I'm with you. If you're just looking at roster spots, two through 53, the Broncos are the better team, the more rested team. Let's see if they can get it done here at home against the Bills. All right, next game, we got 49ers at Seahawks, a rematch of the game we watched a couple of weeks ago. Seahawks are seven point favorites here at home. 49ers pulled off the upset last week in Philadelphia. Can they do it again, Austin?

7:59Austin Gayle:What do you got? My headline here, restless in Seattle. And everyone's talking about the rest edge in this game. And the Niners actually have a very, under Kyle Shanahan, a very good against the spread record when they're coming in on short rest. But there's this extension of Seattle's coming off the first round bye. They're at home. San Francisco just went on the road and played like their Super Bowl against the Eagles on, I think it was Sunday last week. So now they're going Sunday to Saturday, even less rest. They have as banged up as an injury report, if not more so than the Buffalo Bills.

8:25And I think watching back that Philadelphia Eagles game last week with the Niners, it was very clear that they threw out all the stops to try and win this game. The Jawan Jennings touchdown to Christian McCaffrey. Like a lot of this stuff I felt like against a very good Eagles defense was stuff that it's going to be hard to recreate again against arguably an as good defense with the Seattle Seahawks. And we saw this game, what, two, three weeks ago, whenever it was, in week 18. And even though that game was a little bit close for a while, it really did feel like the Seahawks offensively and defensively shut down the San Francisco 49ers, kind of suffocated them in that game.

8:55Austin Gayle:The simple form of analysis is that, like you said, two weeks ago in a game that was a huge game. I mean, just the one seed on the line where if you want to pull out all the stops, that's the game against the Seahawks. The 49ers couldn't do anything. I mean, that was a fifth percentile game offensively for an offense that had been playing really, really well. And now they don't have George Kittle in this game and the Seahawks are better rested in this game. So it's just, I'm like, can Shanahan do it again? Because I'm with you. You watch that game and that was the kitchen sink game for the 49ers.

9:29Austin Gayle:And I don't know that you could have back-to-back kitchen sink games. I don't know that it's ever happened in the NFL where you're able to do that twice in a row against Fangio and then against Mike McDonald, two of the better defenses in the NFL. So I just think they're going to have a really hard time here. We've gone this far about talking about this game and we haven't even mentioned Sam Darnold. Is this just a game where Sam Darnold's not going to have to do a lot and we're not really going to learn a lot about him and the Seahawks can still win by like two touchdowns? For Seattle, if you had to like write out what's the biggest weakness of the Seattle team?

9:58I think the easy answer, and probably everyone's answer is like, oh, well, Sam Darnold, you never know. In these big spots, does he throw picks? Does he go into bozo mode? When you watch back that Niners game, that Niners-Seattle game from a few weeks ago, week 18, they were able to run the ball so successfully with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet that they never really asked Sam Darnold to kind of put the game on his back. And I think this is going to be another case of that where Mike McDonald doesn't want Sam Darnold to have to go win the game. He doesn't. I don't think any coach coaching Sam Darnold really wants to put him in that position.

10:26They want to run the ball successfully, which they should be able to do against a very banged up Niners defense. And they want to put Sam Darnold throwing the ball to JSN when he's wide open or running off play action. I think this is where like, if you are a Niners fan, you're praying for a Sam Darnold disaster, a two, three, four turnover game that gives you a chance.

10:43Austin Gayle:Yeah. The Darnold relationship with Seahawks fans is so interesting. I wonder what's being said on the group chats. And I feel like you send out a text and you're like, all right, you know, like you're real confident, but then internally, you're still going to have that doubt. But I'm with you. I don't know that it gets exposed in this game because even in that game two weeks ago, they were like, we're going to hide Sam Darnold. He's not going to have to. We're not relying on him to win or lose this game for us. And he did make some plays. He can hit on those explosive plays. He's done that all season long, but I don't think he's going to be under a lot of pressure just in terms of that 49ers pass rush.

11:17Austin Gayle:And I think the Seahawks are going to be in a spot where, like you said, They're going to be able to run the ball. They're going to be able to get stops defensively. It just feels like it would take an all-time Shanahan game or an all-time Purdy game or an all-time McCaffrey game or something weird on special teams or Sam Darnold just having a meltdown. Those are the avenues, I think, where the Seahawks lose this game and the 49ers win this game, but I don't think that those are the most likely outcomes here. So yeah, I'm with you with Seattle, although you never know. Maybe the 49ers could keep it a little bit closer than we're thinking here.

11:53Austin Gayle:All right, let's take a break. We come back. We get to the sun. Protein is now at Starbucks and it's never tasted so good. You can add protein cold foam to your favorite drink or try one of our new protein lattes or matcha. Try it today at Starbucks.

12:11Austin Gayle:Day games. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. The divisional round is where the NFL's best take center stage. and with everything on the line, FanDuel is turning on playoff mode because all customers get a profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day waiting for you in the app. More boosts means more ways to level up your playoff bets. FanDuel makes it fast, easy, and fun to get in on the playoff action. And when your bet wins, you'll get paid instantly. So visit FanDuel.com slash Ringer NFL and grab your profit boost pack every NFL playoff game day. 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming.

12:53Austin Gayle:Opt-in required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. Texans at Patriots. Patriots are three-point favorites in this game. You and I have a streak, Austin. We've just somehow discussed the Houston Texans on every podcast we've done together all season long. I don't know why. I don't know. It's the timing.

13:33Austin Gayle:Something weird happens where every time you're on, the Texans are in the news. So now we get a little temperature check how you're feeling about this Houston team. Will they finally get over the hump and reach the AFC Championship. What do you got here? I've got another flip-flop here because I remember last week on this pod, I was doubting the Patriots. I said, maybe next year. And after that, and I said this on the pod, if they beat the Chargers, I think a lot of people will really quickly say, oh my God, the offensive line is terrible. They got to fire Greg Roman, like just an easy matchup for the Pats and like blah, blah, blah.

14:04That was an impressive win for me. I thought that the defense had a phenomenal game plan. You saw after the game that Chargers players were going up to Patriots linebacker, Robbie Spillane. and we're like, we had no idea what defense you're running. Meanwhile, me and you sitting on the couch, like they're blitzing again, they're blitzing again. And like still like chargers were completely lost. I thought that was an impressive defensive game plan for the Pats. And then offensively, yeah, it was like a shaky Drake May game. Like the biggest Pats fan is going to tell you like that was not his best performance, but I still feel like in the second half specifically, stepped up huge, that dime to the tight end in the corner to like really separate them.

14:36I still feel like as a scrambler too, like you're going to see him unlock that in the playoffs, kind of similar to where Mahomes is, right? where Mahomes gets to the playoffs, you start scrambling a little bit more. I think you're going to feel that with Drake May as well. I think his over-under for rushing in this game is like in the 30s. And I think it could even be an over. I'm on the Patriots this week. And my title is Stroud of Darkness. And, you know, we talked about two games featuring quarterbacks, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold. In both games, I'm kind of coming out, like those guys have been bozos in big spots previously.

15:03When you're talking about the weaknesses of the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks, you're kind of, everyone kind of in the back of their head or even in their stomach. It's like, well, Sam Darnold could lose this for us or Bo Nix could lose this for us. I don't think we're, is Stroud one of those guys, right? It's always hard to figure out who are the, when the lights are brightest and everything's on them, they need to figure it out. Who are those quarterbacks and kind of shrink? I feel like going to that Steelers game, Stroud was trying to lose that game, like actively trying to lose that game.

15:29Some of those like bad snaps, I felt like were handleable by him. He was keeping his eye off the ball. I think he was not protecting the football when under pressure. I don't know if I have faith in CJ Stroud being the guy on the other side of the ball that captains them over the hump against a very good Patriots team in Foxborough. And it's going to be cold. It's going to be gross.

15:46Austin Gayle:Yeah, this is such a tough one. I'm with you. Stroud at halftime in that game last week, I was like, this is the worst quarterback performance we've seen all weekend. Terrible. It's from CJ Stroud. I mean, what is happening here? The fumbled snaps and then fumbling after he recovers the snaps and then that interception in the red zone and then even turnovers aside, inaccuracies in the first half. I mean, they were mentioning that over and over again on the broadcast. Now he did settle down a bit and he does it. He's such a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback. I mean, there are throws he makes in that game where I'm like, that is beautiful.

16:18Austin Gayle:Like the ball placement to Christian Kirk there on the right side. So I really don't know what to expect from him. So this is one where you just have to decide who do you trust? Like, who do you trust here? You know, it's a three point line and I'm kind of with you where I'm saying Texans back to square one after offensive struggles in new England, because I just can't trust them after what I watched last week. And it's not just last week. To be clear, this isn't recency bias. They have not had a good offense all season long. You look at it statistically, they're mediocre to below average in most categories.

16:52Austin Gayle:And while I don't think this is a great Patriots defense, I just look at it and go, I don't trust the Texans offense on the road to make enough plays here. Nico Collins, we don't know if they're going to have him. Patriots, we don't know if they're going to have Christian Gonzalez. So there are some big, big injuries to keep an eye on. So I'm with you on Stroud on the other side of the ball. You mentioned May. And I think a huge aspect of this game is how many explosive plays can the Patriots produce? Because I think down to down, I don't know that there's an offense in the NFL that I'm like, oh, they're just going to go up and down the field on the Texans.

17:25Austin Gayle:Texans are too good. They cover too well. They're too physical up front. They've got two great pass rushers. It's not going to happen. But, you know, the one place where they're a little vulnerable, 14th in explosive play rate allowed. So that's the one area where they're middle of the pack. And who's the best offense in the NFL at producing explosive plays? It's the New England Patriots, which is, by the way, a credit to Drake May with the receivers he's working with here. So I think that's a big, big deal. I don't think this has to be one where Drake May is all with Drake May completed 65, 70 percent of his passes.

17:56Austin Gayle:I think it's going to be one where did he get those like three, four explosive plays downfield? Maybe it's still a low scoring game, but the Patriots still win that way. All right. We'll see what happens in a fun game. Really fun. That Texans defense, man, I will watch them any game they play in watching them fly around. For sure. It's a lot of fun, especially against a great quarterback. It's always fun. And they've passed those tests over the years with D 'Amico Ryan. So they could win an ugly game where we have questions about Stroud, but their defense just dominates. That's in play as well.

18:27Austin Gayle:All right, last game, Rams at Bears. Bears, three and a half point underdogs at home. Rams, I think, are second in Super Bowl odds to the Seahawks, Austin. Does the Bears season this journey of Ben Johnson and the locker room speeches and the shirt off and bleep the Packers and last, does it end here or do the Bears stay alive? Before we get into the game, because I feel like you and I don't talk enough, Like, what's your take on the reaction to Ben Johnson saying F the Packers? And then there's like people now saying like, this is Bush League and we shouldn't have coaches using the F word. I vehemently disagree.

19:06And maybe that's because I swear too much or whatever. But like, we need rivalries in the NFL. We need hatred in the NFL. And I think anything that breeds that is better for the game.

19:16Austin Gayle:And this isn't even manufactured. Like, he's just leaning into it. He's like, the handshake at the end. He is a great villain. I love him. More of it, please. And listen, what people don't, coaches have huge egos, NFL coaches. And they all will, the press conference say, we respect that guy and he does a great job. And then you know what? In private, they're always thinking, I don't get enough respect. That guy gets too much respect. He has this quarterback. Look at what I'm doing here. This is what they will whisper to reporters on the side where you'll see, so that's weird that that reporter's saying that.

19:51Austin Gayle:That's how it happens. And I think there's some of that here, especially with the offensive, you know, the young offensive wonder boys who are just like, I'm the scheme lord here in the league. Now it's my league now. I think that's part of it as well. It depends what coaching tree you came from, all those things. And so I love it. I think Ben Johnson has been a fantastic story. Listen, there was a time last week where in my notes I wrote down like Ben Johnson's getting exposed. What a flop, you know. But you know what? It was still a second half to be played there. So I love it. I have to be honest.