Predicting the NFC Playoff Field Going into Week 11!

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Where are we with the NFC playoff picture after week 10? We are making predictions today on how things will play out. We're coming off of Eagles Packers on Monday night. Could Green Bay fall out of the playoff picture entirely? We've got Seahawks Rams in week 11, probably the two happiest fan bases in the NFC. Who is winning the NFC West? And can the Bears sneak in? Are they the sleeper team to keep an eye on? So to talk about it all, we've got the Ringer zone, my friend, Anthony DeBundo. Let's take a break. We'll come back. We will predict how the NFC playoff picture will play out.

0:42This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel is coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky and Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. it. This episode is brought to you by Spectrum Business.

1:30Fast, reliable internet means everything for your business and even this podcast. That's why I trust Spectrum Business to keep companies of all sizes connected with internet, advanced wifi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24-7 US-based support. Millions of business owners already trust Spectrum Business. So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas.

2:08All right, we are back here with Anthony Dabundo. We are making NFC playoff predictions. So if the season started today, Dabundo, or if the playoffs started today, here's where we would be. Eagles would be the one seed, Seahawks two, Lions three, Bucks four. Those would be the four division winners. And then Rams, Bears, and Packers would be the wildcard teams. 49ers would be out if the season, if the playoffs started today, and the Panthers would be out at five and five. So let's start with the division winners. I'm going to get us started to bundle. I've got the Seahawks as the one seed in the NFC.

2:48So let me explain. Let me give you my reasoning and then you tell me where you're at. I think they have the best resume. And maybe at some point, Sam Darnold is going to turn into a pumpkin. But I was thinking about it. Like, this is a kind of a two-year stretch here. His teams are 21-5 with him as a starter in the regular season over the last two years. And this Seahawks team, they're just blowing teams out. They don't get blown out. Their only two losses have been by seven points. Their defense is elite. They still get to play the Rams twice. You know, I think they can, maybe they split those games, lose one more game.

3:22I think the Seahawks are going 13-4 and are going to be the one seed in the NFC. What do you got? Who is your one seed? Is it the Seahawks? Is it someone else? It is not Seattle. You know I love the Seahawks, but I am one of those sickos. So I found a sicko website, playoffpredictors.com, where you can pick every single game for the rest of the season. Oh, my God. And if you do that, and I did that, I actually had a three-way tie for the one seed in the NFC. Wow. And on tiebreakers, the winner of that tiebreak was the Philadelphia Eagles. And I honestly don't trust them. I mean, we could get into the other two teams.

4:08Who were the other two teams? The Rams and the Seahawks. Oh, okay. Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles. would lose a tiebreaker to the division, then as a result, they would not get it. I believe based on the playoffpredictors.com. If they're wrong, blame them, not me. But yeah, I don't think you trust the Eagles. I don't think I trust the Eagles. I don't think most of the city of Philadelphia trust the Eagles. But at some point, it does feel like Fangio has put this defense back together and they're now healthier on defense with the return of Dean, with the return of Nolan Smith, getting Jalen Phillips in the trade who made some big plays last night in the win against the Packers.

4:45And they're not going to have to go to war with the Rams and the Seahawks twice. Those two teams have two games on each other's schedule, but the most likely outcome is that they'll split them. But Philly kind of gets to coast by. I think they're going to beat Detroit on Sunday, so that kind of gets into this. But yeah, still don't trust them. Highest three and out rate basically in the league. So I'm sitting here like, oh man, this could go south quickly. Like we've seen this movie before, but at some point you trust them and I trust them on special teams more. I feel like Rams special teams will still have something to say this season.

5:16So the thing about the Eagles and I was, you know, as I was diving into all this stuff today, preparing for this episode, I'm with you. You kind of watch them and you're like, you know, you watch that offensive performance Monday night and throughout the season and you go, hmm, I don't know about that. And then you look at some of the stuff we like to look at one score games. They're 6-1, which is by far the best record, the most wins by any team in one-score games this season. But then you look at the schedule they've faced so far, DeBundo. It's been the hardest schedule in the NFL, according to Impredictable.

5:49I don't go on the dark webs like you do. I don't play off. This is a list of listeners. You can go to Impredictable. It's a valid site. Don't go down the rabbit hole wherever DeBundo's ending up, picking every game the rest of the season. But Impredictable is - I have the same tab open. and unpredictable is one of my favorite sites. Yeah, it's a great site. It just looks at the betting markets and it tells you based on that who has the hardest strength to schedule. And so you look at that and you go, well, their point differential, maybe that explains why it's not great. Maybe that explains why they've played one score games.

6:18They've beaten the Chiefs. They've beaten the Rams. They've beaten the Bucks. They've beaten the Packers. So like they have some nice wins on their resume where they're kind of in this in-between state where, yeah, I'm not sure. I have them in the mix. I do have them winning the NFC East. Obviously, that's a wrap. I think they can win 12-ish games, maybe 13 games. So I've actually got the Eagles as my two seed behind the Seahawks. I've got the Lions as my three seed, and I've got the Bucs as my four seed. Where are we aligned? Where are we different with the division winners and the seeding for those four?

6:52So you're not a member of the Ramily? I was totally on the fence, Ram-Dur-Seahawks. I'll be honest. I struggled with that one basically up until, you know, the minute I had to decide there. Do you have the Rams over the Seahawks? I mean, you can make a case, and I feel like it's flown under the radar, but so the Rams started last year one and four. Then they won nine of their next 11 games, rested in week 18. So that's nine and two to end the regular season in games that they actually tried to win. And this year they're seven and two, so that's 16 and four. And if you think about those two losses, it is kind of funny looking back.

7:26They had the 20-point lead on Philly that they blew in the second half with two block field goals and hilarious special teams and some bizarre stuff that occurred in the second half of that game. But really, I think most of us came away feeling like, the Rams were probably the better team on the day. Just didn't quite come away with the win. And then the 49ers game, they had the ball inside the five-yard line. Kyron Williams coughs it up. That cost them a win there. So the Rams don't have a single game this year. If anything, you could say maybe their worst game was in Indy when they only won the game because A.D.

7:55Mitchell fumbled the ball on the goal line, but the Rams have been incredibly dominant, and this offense, since they've sorted out their red zone issues that they had early in the season, has been supernova-like. It's Colts, Rams, and Chiefs. Those are the three top offenses since week four, week three, when the Rams sorted out their issues there. So I don't trust their special teams, but I certainly think that the way that they're calling offense, they've unleashed Stafford more than usual this year, less running, more passing. I love what I'm seeing from the Rams, and I I think they're going to just barely edge out Seattle for that division.

8:29But it really could go either way. Yeah, there's slight favorites there in the NFC West. Obviously, huge matchup coming up this weekend. That's going to be so much. I feel like it's the most trustworthy and reliable offense in the NFL. If there's a game where all of a sudden you say, wow, that other team got them with this wrinkle or this gameplay, it just feels like that's not going to happen. They've seen too much. Stafford, McVay. hey, you know, I got this little nerd spreadsheet up, DeBundo, you probably have something similar where it goes through like all the stats and the Rams is just every offensive category is green.

9:04I mean, there's nothing that they don't do. They can run the ball. They can create explosive plays. You can count on Stafford. You got Puka Nakua and Devontae Adams. So yeah, it is just a very trustworthy, reliable offense. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if they ended up being the one seed. They get the Seahawks twice, like you mentioned. They get the Bucs. They get the Lions. I mean, I think they're a 12 or 13 win. I wrote down for Seahawks, Eagles, Lions, and Rams, like 12 or 13 wins. I think all those teams have a legit chance to get there. What I like about the Rams, and you felt this watching Monday night, it almost felt like, and I know we all talked about Ajamo, like knowing the play, that was the famous clip that came out today, the viral clip of him yelling out what Green Bay was going to run on fourth and one.

9:47You got the sense from Green Bay and Philly that there was a staleness and a predictability to those offenses where Green Bay, oh, guess what? It's second and nine. I wonder what you're going to call here. Oh, handoff for one yard? Okay, third and eight. And then for Philly, I mean, it felt like Green Bay had the playbook. They were on everything the Eagles wanted to do. They were sitting on all the routes. They had all the play actions that the Eagles tried to run, snuffed out. The run game for Philly was unimaginative. So those two offenses, you're looking around like, is anything going on? Did they practice?

10:18Do they have any new wrinkles? The Rams have been so different this year. I mean, they've run this three tight ends. Again, they've been using the passing game a lot more, getting away from just the early down runs that kind of define the last couple of years of their offense. So, I mean, I think that they're more multiple than these other offenses. And we'll get to Detroit in a second, I guess, but they're another interesting team as Dan Campbell is now the new offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions. Yeah, well, let's get to him right now. He's their new play caller. They've got the fifth hardest remaining schedule.

10:48They've only played one game decided by seven points or fewer. I don't remember seeing that with a team this late in the season where it's like either they're blowing teams out or they're getting blown out. They got blown out by the Packers and the Chiefs. I still am trusting the Lions to be a very good team and win that. I would be very surprised if they didn't win that division. So I've got them as the three seed. So you're off Packers Island? Yeah. Do you have the Packers? Give me your division winner for the NFC North. I can't quit the cheese, Sheel. I can't do it. Wow, you're sticking with them.

11:24Like your old pal Solak. I can't quit the cheese. I'm still holding the last life raft on the island. Everybody else has sailed away, including yourself, apparently. We got this over that we did preseason. We both put our cheese heads on, or at least you did. I didn't have one. And I'm sitting here, and I'm annoyed, quite frankly. They're wasting an incredible defense that Jeff Halfley's put together. The safety duo, I think, is the best in the league. The pass rush with Micah is dominant. They've only had one game all year where you're like, what's going on with the Green Bay defense? And yet this offense, here's the thing, and this is the reason I'm still buying.

12:02Jaden Reed's probably coming back for Thanksgiving. That's going to be the game that decides the NFC North. Thanksgiving Day, 1230, Lions, Packers in Detroit. And I still think this Green Bay defense has a higher ceiling than anything Detroit can put out. defensively. And I still have faith that LaFleur can figure this out. He's been too good for too long. And I know everybody's out, you know, match time into the athletic is apparently writing columns that LaFleur might be coaching for his job. I still believe she'll. And so I'm going to pick them to eke out the division by a half game because they're going to win the Thanksgiving game in Detroit and sweep the head to head.

12:40Okay. Here's the, here's the deal with the Packers. I think they're the most interesting team in the NFL the rest of the way, because I I think between the analytical part of my brain and then what I'm actually seeing and what I'm feeling, those two things are not aligned. The numbers scream out. This is a team, if I were writing a column this week, everybody settled down on the Packers. Recency bias. They're sixth in DVOA. They're seventh in EPA per drive. They created explosive plays at the sixth highest rate. To your point, the defense is overachieved. They limit explosive plays. They stop the run.

13:14Everything, if you just showed me the profile, and didn't tell me who the team was, I would go, oh, absolutely a Super Bowl contender. The problem is watching them every week and losses to the Browns and losses to the Panthers and a tie against the Cowboys. I mean, they have three losses this year where teams have beaten them and have scored 13, 16, and 10 points. So part of me wants to say, that's, come on, that's fluky. Don't let that overtake your opinion. But the problem to Bundo is that Tucker Craft is out, Elton Jenkins, their best offensive lineman, is on IR. And so now I don't know that they're going to be the same team the rest of the way.

13:54I really think the rest of this season is going to tell us, what do you actually have in this combination, this battery of Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, which I have really liked for a long time and thought it's just a matter of time until they break through and are playing in a Super Bowl. I thought maybe it would be this year. Do you have kind of the stomach? Do you have the resilience to weather this adversity, these injuries, and come out the other side and be the NFC North champs or make some noise? I don't have a strong answer to that. You know, my gut kind of is telling me, I don't know.

14:30Like, this could go either way. But you're sort of trusting the analytical part of this and saying everyone settle down. They're still winning the division. I mean, you could even go to last night. I mean, that was still a coin flip game. I know they lost. But it wasn't like they were not competitive with the Eagles last night in a game that was pretty bad from both teams offensively. And neither offense did much. The Eagles hit the one big play. And Green Bay had some just disastrous plays inside the 40-yard line. The penalty gets called back. They would have been in the red zone there. They had the fumble right before halftime.

15:04Little dumb things. And that's what makes this team so annoying. Like I said earlier, with the staleness, with the frustrations of this offense, just kind of looking a little too predictable. too many runs. I mean, maybe the loss of Jenkins, and I'm not saying they're going to be better, but sometimes when a team is forced to get creative and forced to change up their strategy because of injuries, you end up finding something better or something that works. And I know that Kraft is a real loss for this team, but really you could also make the claim that since Reed went out in that week two game against the Commanders, this offense hasn't been ticking at the same level either.

15:38So I think him coming back, Watson another week or two, continuing to come back from his ACL. Maybe they can put this together, but there isn't enough difference makers in this offense right now. Yeah, it looked like that. All right, so I've got, before we take a break, I've got Seahawks one, Eagles two, Lions three, Bucs four. Give me a reminder on your four. You got two different teams than I do. Eagles one, the Ramily two, Green Bay, can't quit the cheese three, Tampa Bay four. Yeah, it feels like the Bucs are locked into four with maybe 10 or 11 wins winning that division. All right, let's take a break.

16:14Let's come back. Let's talk about who we have in the wildcard spots. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field, but getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure, they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance when they're State Farm. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help.

16:51ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2.

17:35Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor.

18:07Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. So we've got two different teams there with the division winners, DeBundo. I've got for my wildcard teams, the Rams. You've got them winning the division. I've got the 49ers as the sixth seed. and I've got the Packers still getting in, but kind of barely as the seventh seed. Who are your three wildcard teams? And then we'll talk about them. Before we get into the wildcard, we need to pour one out for Baker Mayfield MVP campaign, weeks one to seven. That has come crashing down to earth. I think - Dak Prescott too, anyone else?

18:52Dak Prescott, who else do we have? That might be it, Jordan Love? Jordan Love was getting some stealth case. Could be, yeah. I think he might be dead. Jalen Hurts even if the Eagles get the one seat I think is dead there was some people making outside cases for him if like the Eagles went on a big run in the second half because he had a couple big games in a row but I'm not buying that one yeah I don't know the other big question is will the Bucs replace the AFC South champion in the Shakey's game this year or is it just going to be the Colts well I think the Bucs are pretty entertaining so yeah I don't know they might be I could see them in more of a primetime slot yeah All right.

19:30My wildcard teams. My wildcard teams. Seattle, five. Detroit, six. San Francisco, seven. Which of those three is most interesting to you? Seattle, Detroit, San Francisco. I think the most interesting team is the team that neither of us named, to be quite honest. Oh, Chicago? Chicago. Because I know what you're going to say. But I know you too well. Because I know what you're going to say about the Bears. But let the people know why you kind of scoffed when I said maybe the Bears are the most interesting team. And basically, why you're going to tell us you don't believe in the Bears as a playoff team.

20:07Like, there are five or six defenses in the NFL this year that are like beyond repair. That are just into the level of deplorable defense where you're just like, they can't stop anything. Every week, the opposing team just moves up and down the field. And the Bears have somehow played all of them. Like they played Dallas. They looked great. I mean, they were up and down the field on them. They played Cincinnati. Caleb Williams just threw another touchdown against the Bengals' defense. They got to play the Giants, who haven't been able to stop anybody, especially in the fourth quarters of games.

20:38And the Giants, they up and down the field in that fourth quarter. This Bears team, I mean, they got the Commanders, right? At the start of the Commanders' downfall. They should have lost that game, and they got the fumble late and got the game-winning field goal. But again, the Commanders' defense, who looks like a bottom five or six team. And then they got the big win against Vegas, which you could actually argue is their best win of the season at Vegas. And they did so by getting out gained by 150 yards. So I understand that everybody's excited about this Bears running game, this Bears offense, the Ben Johnson, the winning, all the close games they pulled out.

21:14But I mean, we've seen this analytics case time and time again. Their profile is pretty bad. It's a limited, very limited defense. You can make a case they're in that mix. They are in that mix. I thought that's where you were going with it. Their defense stinks. I mean, they feast on turnovers. And I agree with everything that you're saying there. They have the resume of a mostly fraudulent team. You alluded to this, but their turnover EPA is the highest for any team through 10 weeks in the last five seasons. So they are feasting on turnovers. They're four and one in one score games. They've had the sixth easiest schedule and they're 25th in DVOA.

21:52Everything about them says this is going to come crashing down the rest of the way. And yet, DeBundo. Have you looked at the schedule? Have you looked at the schedule too? I have. Their remaining schedule is the hardest in the NFL. And yet, DeBundo, this is why we watch sports. Because sometimes weird things happen where you say, no, no, no. This shouldn't be happening. They shouldn't get that kick return. They shouldn't get that field goal block. They should have lost this game. But when you just look at the standings, whether you go to ESPN.com, it doesn't tell you. It doesn't have asterisks.

22:27It doesn't say, well, they got lucky here. It doesn't say the other team had a higher success rate or out gained them by 200 yards. It says win and it says losses. And so if you're a Bears fan, you should listen to what DiBundo and I are saying. You know, I think it is true. You don't need to care about it. You should just enjoy this season. but there are bones here of a good offense. They are first in explosive play rate. They figured out the run game. They're sixth in rushing success rate. And what if everything clicks for Caleb Williams and he goes on a heater down the stretch? What if they knock the Packers out of the playoffs?

23:04I mean, you are allowed to dream, Bears fans. You don't have to listen to all the nerd stats that we're putting out. You are allowed to dream on your group chats that, hey, that Packers team's faltering a little bit. we still get to play them. What if we knock them out and we're the seventh seed? So I'm not bold enough to predict that. I don't believe that's going to happen, but I do think it's possible that that happens. And if you're a Bears fan, I mean, you haven't had a season this exciting in a long time. So go ahead and dream about it. This is the test week. I think this is a perfect test week for them.

23:35They're at Minnesota. Minnesota has not been a great run defense this year. You can run it a bit on Minnesota and it's a great test for this offense. How real is this offense? because we're going to figure it out because I wrote, I've written about this and we talked about it. They were among the league's worst in rushing offense the first four weeks of the season and they're among the league's best. They're second only to Indy since the bye week, week five. So that's the last five games. They've been really good running the ball. How much of that was real major improvements? Ben Johnson taking fold.