Predicting the Week 10 Headlines

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Sheil Kapadia. Today we are looking at the week 10 slate. It's the usual Friday exercise. What headlines are we going to be seeing next week after these games are played? Fun games this week. Rams 49ers, massive Monday night matchup between the Eagles and Packers. Ravens, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens go to Minnesota to take on JJ McCarthy, Brian Flores, that Vikings defense, and then Drake May versus Baker Mayfield. That's a potential shootout in Tampa. Could be a very, very fun game. Our guest today is the Ringer's very own Stephen Ruiz. We will talk about all those games and more.

0:40Let's take a break. We come right back with the headlines. This is the Ringer NFL Show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel's coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash RingerNFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

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2:09All right, we are back with Steven Ruiz. We're talking headlines. We're going to see next week after week 10. Ruiz, you're the guest here. So go ahead. You get first pick. What's one headline we're going to read next week after this weekend's games?

2:24Steven Ruiz:I didn't come up with a clever nickname or a clever headline like the New York Post would. So I feel very ashamed. It was just that Kyle Shanahan is back. It was a quick one. Quick one and straight to the point. Sometimes those are the best ones. Last week, some other weeks were like, all right, let's go back to the blog world. What would we have been writing here? So Kyle Shanahan's back. That has my attention. I like it. It's like a very dead spin, like 2016 headline. I would have clicked on it. you know but that's right here's what here's my theory on this i and i i wanted to throw sean mcveigh in there because i feel like we've had these two like offensive play called geniuses in the same division for what is it going back to 2017 2018 now and i think we all expected them to just have these shootouts every year right like oh 30 to 30 every year but we haven't really had that we've had 20 uh 27 to 24 game twice and in 2022 2024 but since then like we haven't had a 30 point game since 2019 between these teams.

3:21Steven Ruiz:Wow, that's crazy. Yeah, if you go back to 2017, we got 41-39 in 2017 between them, a classic. 48-32, another high scoring game, 34-31 in 2019. And then after that, it's really been more low scoring affairs, like games in the low 20s, games in the high teens. Even last time they played earlier this season, I think it was 26-23, and they had to get to overtime to score those points. So I feel like the last four years have been these two coaches kind of, You know, they burst onto the scene when they first took over these teams and then defenses kind of had a counterpunch for them and they've kind of struggled to get back there.

3:55Steven Ruiz:And I think this weekend we're going to see another one of those like early games where it's 35 to 30, 49ers ramps just lighting up, just trading blows, Mac Jones, Matthew Stafford. And I think that because of how confident I am in the 49ers offense right now, and I'm confident in the 49ers offense right now because I think Kyle Shanahan has gotten back to his 21 personnel stuff, his two back, Kyle Juszczyk in the backfield, high formation, and he's figured out how to run from that again, and that just opened up a world of opportunity in the play-action pass game, and I expect that to be something that this Rams defense, which is very good, especially with the front, I think it's going to be something that they struggle to handle against the Rams this weekend.

4:37So I can get there pretty easily with you with the Rams offense. I mean, we don't need to talk for 10 minutes. It's just like everything's working for them. Run games working. Stafford's awesome. McVay's in his bag. Puka Dukua, assuming he's healthy and plays in this game is awesome. They figured it out with Devante Adams. So that's the Rams offense. Like I, you know, the reason I think a lot of us are so confident in the Rams as a contender is because I don't think there's a defense out there or a defensive mind out there who you're like, Oh, they're just going to put them in a blender. Like they've seen too much.

5:09So I'm with you there. And this 49ers defense we know is banged up with the guys they've lost. They lost Michael Williams last week after already having lost Warner and Bosa. So I can get with you there. The other side is interesting, what you're pointing to, because I don't know that people realize the Rams right now have the best defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play, which even I look at it and I'm like, huh, I knew they've been playing well. I didn't think it was that good. And the Niners, I think it's been a pretty great Kyle Shanahan season. Just the way they figured things out and their record, despite all those injuries.

5:43but you're still confident that against this is so is it hey I don't know that the Rams defense is quite as good as those numbers or is this just a full I feel like the 49ers offense is kind of

5:53Steven Ruiz:taking off right now I think it's a combination of both and I think the Rams defense how it's built especially like it's strong up front and you can kind of attack the the back end of it and they kind of have to play a little more soft zone coverage behind of that behind that pass rush and I think that's perfect for some of these you know high-powered offenses that have a quarterback leading it where you know the quarterback is dropping back I'm thinking of obviously Joe Burrow's not playing this season but like that's the prototypical like quarterback-centric offense and I think it's built to beat those teams because you put pressure on those quarterbacks to keep dropping back and dropping back and those offensive lines to keep you know blocking and pass protection but the 49ers offense I feel like they've kind of were in that world last year and you saw that in Purdy's numbers and how they kind of had to use Purdy and how he had to be like the playmaking hub for the offense.

6:39Steven Ruiz:I think since they've gotten Mac Jones in the lineup, it's kind of forced Kyle's hand to figure out how to get back to that old style of offense. And I think that old style of offense is just a bad matchup for these Rams because you're not used to like a fullback starting out at the tight end spot and then quick motioning, you know, to eye formation. You've got to figure out your run fits out right before the snap. And then you have to deal with like a old school downhill running play. They're just not built to do that. Most defenses aren't because most defenses or most offenses can't operate that way.

7:12Steven Ruiz:There are five teams that have over 100 snaps and 21 personnel this year. Not 21 personnel specifically, but two backs in the backfield, those sets. Only two of them have a positive EPA out of that. The 49ers and the Seahawks. The Seahawks are this wagon that you can't slow down. It's a pass machine. There's no way to stop it. I think the 49ers are kind of getting to that point over the last couple of weeks, they're averaging 0.4 EPA per play action drop back out of 21 personnel. And you can see them start to get back to that more often over the last couple of weeks. Kyle Juszczyk's snap load is up over the last couple of weeks.

7:49Steven Ruiz:They're using him in different ways. They're using him in the backfield as a lead blocker. So I just think it's one of those things where one, they haven't put enough of it on tape for defenses to really be ready for it. And then two, I just don't think it's a good matchup for what the Rams personnel is. So do you like the 49ers to win this game or you're just like high, high scoring game could go either way type deal? See, that's the question. I think it's, I think it's going to be a high scoring game. I do agree with you. Like the Rams, everything is working for them. Matthew Stafford is working for them, but I do think that they gave the Rams a little bit of trouble in this first matchup.

8:23Steven Ruiz:And I do think that Robert Sala usually has a formula that takes care of these styles of passing games if they do lean heavily on the drop back passing game. So it'll be interesting to see, but I think this game kind of tells you which one of those coaches is on top. And I feel like it can only be one at a time, right? Either Sean McVay is miserable and Kyle Shanahan is loving life, or it's the opposite way around. So, you know, one of these offenses is kind of going to have a step back this weekend, I feel like, and the other one's going to take a step forward. I think it's a bigger feather in Shanahan's cap if he wins this and they sweep the Rams just with the injuries they've had this season.

8:58Um, you know, I think that they're six and three, but they have a plus six point differential, but I'm not even like, oh, they're frauds because it's like, well, they've had 400 injuries. I don't, who cares? Like what their point differential, uh, is there six and three. So I, I don't take the Niners seriously as contenders because of the injuries on defense. I think they're a good team. I think they're a playoff team. The Rams, I absolutely do take seriously, uh, as contenders. So yeah, it feels like the Rams should win this game. They're four and a half point favorites, but if the 49ers win it, then maybe we rethink some of the things we thought about this division going into it.

9:32So there you go. That'd be fun. Rams night's a fun game. It's always fun. There are blowouts. Sometimes it's not like every game is close, but hope the first one this season was close and kind of a weird Thursday night game that went into overtime. So maybe we'll get a weird one here. Shannon 11 and seven against McVay. I did look that up earlier today. 11 and seven against Sean McVay. All right. My first headline here, Ruiz, Saquon regains 2024 form as Eagles upset Packers at Lambeau. So we got a fun matchup Monday night. Eagles, Packers, Eagles are 6-2. Packers are 5-2-1. I think these two teams are on any short list of NFC contenders.

10:13Maybe down the road, we're saying, ooh, that game on Monday night had a big influence on who was the number one seed. I'm very curious to see this Eagles run game Cause it's kind of like what you said with the Niners where on the season, they haven't been great, but man, they look great against the giants. And I'm looking at the Eagles like on the season, they haven't been great, but a couple of weeks ago against the giants, they lit them up. So is it just that the giants defense run defense is terrible, which it is, or have these teams figured something out? And it's not the same conversation you were, you had with the Niners, but some similarities where they're going to under center more.

10:46They're playing with the sixth offensive lineman more. Their tight ends were just getting wrecked in the run game. They're finally mixing in some under center play action off of it, not to a high degree, but if they do it four times a game, you're like, oh my gosh, they've reinvented football in Philadelphia. This is unbelievable. So even just watching them on film all season long, it was always like, man, Saquon still looks really good here. It's more the blocking and the scheming that's not as good with their run game. Landon Dickerson, their all pro guard has gotten healthier in recent weeks.

11:17I think that's made a huge, huge difference just to have him back there in the lineup. So Packers on defense, 17th in DVOA against the run. I think the Eagles have a chance to have a really big running game on Monday night and maybe kind of control that game a little bit. Where are you with that? Where are you with this big matchup on Monday night?

11:38Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I'm with you there because I think the how they get the running game going kind of sets. I don't know if it's the floor or the ceiling for this team, because I do think they need to start running the ball. to obviously get back to being a playoff contender, like one that can win the Super Bowl. If they don't have the run game, then it's hard to envision them as that. I think it was a lot easier last year when we were talking about the pass game. We were like, oh, they don't have a pass game. AJ Brown was saying like the pass game is what's wrong with the offense. But we could still envision them as winning the Super Bowl.

12:05Steven Ruiz:I think they won 15 games in the regular season anyway. But yeah, we saw like those baby steps the last couple of weeks. And I thought what it did was open up the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts, we saw him make, you know, he was under center. He turned his back to the defense, turned around, and then hit like Devontae Smith on a couple of inbreakers. And it has, you joked about it, you know, the Eagles, oh, they rediscovered football, but it has unlocked something that they haven't really had going back to 2022, I would say. 100%, yeah. And it does make that offense a lot more difficult to defend.

12:39Steven Ruiz:And I think the offensive linemen were really clamoring for something like this early in the season when they were like, it seemed like every, they were saying it without saying it. they were kind of lamenting the fact that like defenses seemed to know what was coming and they were they were on a lot of stuff and getting under center it just has that effect on defenses where one you don't know which way the run is going which you do when it's shotgun unless you're going up against like an Andy Reid who could be does same side zone runs from the gun and then to the play action it just hits harder it just hits harder if you look up the stats if you look up the splits if you take out shotgun the play action just hits harder and if you are struggling to get explosives and the only source for explosives the last couple of years for the Eagles were when they got cover one, they got man coverage and they could just, you know, throw it up to Devante Smith or AJ Brown on the outside.

13:22Steven Ruiz:I think if they are able to run the ball like this, continue to run it against a team like the Packers against another contender. I mean, I would come away from this game thinking the Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC. And I wasn't thinking that going into, I would say two weeks ago. Yeah. I changed my mind every two weeks, you know, two weeks ago, uh, after the, the Packers that performance against the Steelers, I'm like, they look like the best team. And then last week I'm like, oh my gosh, what are, uh, the Packers doing here? The Rams have a case for that. Certainly, uh, the Lions have a case.

13:52So I, I think it's easier in the AFC, right?

13:54Steven Ruiz:In the AFC, it's just like, oh, oh, Bill's chiefs. Bill's chiefs. I want to get your, yeah. With one of these next games, I actually want to get your sort of ranking of the AFC, uh, contenders could be, you know, there's a couple that I think are consensus, but after that, it gets a little tricky. So let's take a break. We'll come back. We'll talk about one, actually two more games that deal with at least one AFC team. This episode is brought to you by Apple. Before it was Ringer NFL, it was just an idea. I started with just a mic and a Mac and the need to discuss all things football. We thought, are we going to do a daily show?

14:31Are we going to change the logo? Who are the guests going to be? What are the topics going to be? Listen, we're still figuring it out, But no matter what you have an idea for, whether it's creating your own commentary on this week's games, starting a platform for your take on sports, or even founding your own league, go for it. You just need to get started. Your great ideas start on Mac. Find out more on apple.com slash Mac.

14:56Steven Ruiz:Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children.

15:35Steven Ruiz:Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction. Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills.

16:07Steven Ruiz:Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show, Ruiz. What do you got? What's next? What's the next headline? All right, I'm going to the Baltimore-Minnesota game. Now, I went the other way with this headline. It might have been a reach. I might be thinking to, I don't know. I might have been reaching for the stars too much here. My headline is Hamilton, sold out.

16:47Steven Ruiz:It's a play on the play, Hamilton, and how it was hard to get tickets back in the day. You remember that was a thing? Kapati is our big fan. We saw it and, you know, finally saw it in New York this year. I mean, that soundtrack has been playing through this house and these cars for years now, Rui, so I like it. So you like where I'm going with this, but it's about Kyle Hamilton and the way that the Ravens have kind of changed how they're using him in recent weeks and the effect that that's had on the defense. And I think this is a, I don't want to say like the perfect test or like the strongest test for a defense that had been struggling at the beginning of the year is on a bit of a hot streak over the last couple of performances against the Vikings are obviously going against J.J.

17:20Steven Ruiz:McCarthy. But the Vikings did get their run game going last year or last week, and they were able to get some play action passes off of that going. And I think that's really what hurt the Ravens early on in the season. You can go back to the Lions game and see how much trouble they had in that one. But I do think they've been able to put Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage on early downs and kind of use them as a run blitzer, just a guy that they can kind of like point the cannon at a certain direction. Like, oh, does this team like to run off the left edge? Let's point the Kyle Hamilton cannon at that and just shoot it at him.

17:52Steven Ruiz:So I think they're just going to have him kind of sell out against the run, kind of get in the backfield, try to create some tackles for loss, get JJ McCarthy into obvious passing situations and then say, Hey, I know he's not a rookie, but he's basically a rookie to say, Hey, rookie beat us, like beat our coverage, our shell coverage, our shell zone coverage. And I don't know if he's going to be able to do it, but I think if the Ravens are able to shut down this Raven, this Vikings offense, like they were able to shut down the dolphins offense, Like they were able to slow down the Rams offense.

18:20Steven Ruiz:They held them to 17 points, which I thought was a big accomplishment for them. And kind of the first sign that they were turning things around. But if they're able to do that against the Vikings, I'm ready to buy them as being back. And we, we know Lamar's back, but I'll say the Ravens defense is back too. This guy, I don't remember anything like what Kyle Hamilton's doing. It's like an annual thing now. It's like our middle of the season or after a month. Hey, the Ravens defense sucks at this one thing. Okay. Why don't we have Kyle Hamilton solve that? Okay. And next year, it's like a different thing.

18:48And then the next year, it's a different thing. I mean, because I usually, you know, maybe we've had these conversations. I get sick of the like, oh, positionless players and versatility. And I think you sometimes feel the same way as me. It's like, all right, well, how many things can they actually do well? It's not just the guy lining up.

19:03Steven Ruiz:It's always zero too. It's always zero. Yeah. He is the exception. It's incredible that, you know, they just change how they use him. And it really has, now it's a smaller sample, but it seems to have, you watch the game and you're like, they solved it. Like, look at this guy. He's all over the place. He's dominating. He's in the backfield. He's wrecking these plays. So what a player. I really think he is a one of one. And I'm with you there. I mean, that Vikings offensive performance last week, they schemed some stuff up. McCarthy made a play with his legs. He made a play in the end. So I don't think you watch that and we're like, this is definitely going to last.

19:39And I was actually thinking about you this week, Ruiz, because I was thinking about how like sometimes I'm in a social setting and like, you know, I hate to admit this. I don't want to be judgy, but a guy walks in and you're like, that's probably not going to be my kind of guy. You just have a feel. You might, maybe you're wrong. Sometimes you're wrong. But I was reading a story this week about JJ McCarthy. I don't know if you saw this or not. He says he has a game day alter ego that he calls nine. And per ESPN, here's the quote. I kind of love feeding that wolf, McCarthy said, because my entire life at Michigan, there was a smiley face on my hand.

20:15And if you smile and you have fun, you're going to play better and all that, which is true. But I also think there's a lot of power that comes from that built up anger that you can transmute into your performance. I read that and I go, I don't think he's Ruiz's type of guy. Was I wrong? I don't want to judge, you know, but what were you thinking if you did see that story or you just heard me tell you about it?

20:37Steven Ruiz:No, I did kind of see the story, but I didn't hear the exact quote. My first response is, oh, brother, come on, please. enough. Can we throw for 200 yards before we start talking about alter egos and giving him nicknames? He named it nine. Oh my God. I saw, did you see the pregame or the postgame when I think KOC might have given him a game ball and the look on his face and I think someone tweeted out like this guy is like a serial killer on game day and yeah, that's not a good thing. That was part of the story too. Yeah, I think that was nine coming out. Oh, that was nine coming out. Yeah, that was nine coming out there.

21:11Yeah, this is a fun game. AFC contender picture. You mentioned you're already good with Lamar. We want to see a little bit more with the defense. But if I just asked you, give me your little stack rank at the top here, teams you're most confident can get to the Super Bowl in the AFC, what do you got? Because this came up earlier in the week with the Colts trade, and I think people were a little surprised with how many teams I had ahead of them. So I don't know where you have them, but what do you got here?