Predicting the Week 12 Headlines With Domonique Foxworth

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Sheil Kapadia. Today, we're looking at the week 12 slate. We're predicting headlines we might read next week. And our guest is ESPN's Dominique Foxworth. You can listen and watch him on the Dominique Foxworth show along with other ESPN programming. I'm giving him two headlines for each game. So we're switching it up a bit. I'm going to give him two headlines for each game. And he's going to tell me which seems more likely. He was fantastic on these games. We talked about the media narratives in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. We talked about defending the Rams, three tight end sets, X's and O's, all kinds of stuff.

0:39He was great on all of it. And then, of course, we finish with the Ringer 107. All right, let's take a break. We come right back with Dominique Foxworth. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel is coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming.

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2:10All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show with Dominique Foxworth. Dominique, thank you so much for joining us today, man. No problem. Happy to do it. Thanks for making it work for me. Absolutely. So we got these games coming up week 12. Well, I've come up with some headlines. We're switching it up this week. We're going to play a little game. I'm going to give you two headlines, and you're going to tell me which one you think is more likely, and then we can talk about the games as we go through it. So let's start with the Colts at the Chiefs. Headline one, Chiefs on the ropes, searching for answers after a third straight loss.

2:44So that's headline one. Headline two, Colts look like pretenders after uninspiring loss to KC. So which way are you leaning here? Is this, oh man, panic mode for the Chiefs, they lost again? Or is this a, all right, Colt, settle down. You weren't kind of ready for the state. This is tough because the few times when I have enough courage to pick against the Chiefs, I have been wrong. And then when I lean in on the Chiefs, I end up still being wrong. But I think that we all, the problem with looking at this particular game is we all recognize the Colts are better and have been better all year long.

3:25But we also recognize that Patrick Mahomes is still there. And it's not as if there's a big glaring weakness. Like I felt more confident, as stupid as this sounds, I felt more confident picking against the Chiefs last year than I do picking against them this year. when I know that they won all those games last year, but last year there was a clear, like, obvious issues that could not be solved with their weapons. Right now it's like occasionally their O-line will play, or not even occasionally, their O-line will protect Mahomes, the receivers that have a breakout game. Like last week against the Broncos, protection was the problem.

4:00It was the best pass rushing football, and protection was the problem. There were people open. And what happened last week was they can't really run the ball, they don't really want to run the ball, and Mahomes was missing open people because they were taking the middle safety out of middle field. There were big plays there to be made. So if you're asking me to believe that the reason why this team is going to continue to lose is because Patrick Mahomes isn't playing well, then that's hard for me to buy. I'm not going to beat around the bush. I'm going to pick a headline. Do I go with my head or my heart?

4:29I think I'm going to go with my heart and say that we go with – was the first one when the Chiefs figured it out? No, first one, Chiefs are on the ropes. Yeah, okay. Second one, Chiefs win. Yeah, I think we go second one with the Chiefs win. I forgot the exact headline. I'm not playing this game right. They're not that memorable, Dominique. You know what I'm saying? They were perfect, though. The problem is we don't read anymore. Like a headline, I think a headline is only something that all people like me actually know what it is. Like podcast episode title might bring it into the current times because no one's reading anything.

5:05You know what? you just improved this gimmick next week on the ringer NFL show podcast, more likely podcast title. I like that. That's a lot better. Cause you're right. No one's reading anyway. I'm not writing it anymore that much anyway. So I'm not that good at this, but yeah, I love the point about the chiefs corners. I mean, the Colts corners, this is our chance to get a look. This is why they traded for sauce Gardner sauce, Gardner, Traverius ward Kenny Moore, like on paper, you're saying, man, those guys can lock some teams up and let's see this chiefs offense. statistically has been very good, but you kind of watch them and you're like, all right, they don't look like a dominant team.

5:43So I'm with you with last week. Like I heard you say that with me and the Kimes and then I was rewatching that game and I was like, yeah, Dominique was right. Like Mahomes has time here. He's holding onto the ball. He's scrambling. And you just assume like guys, you know, are not open or he's missing throws when he does that. So I think that's the big matchup here. Kind of Chiefs passing game. because, like you said, we know they're not going to be leaning on the run versus these Colts corners. Yeah, so which headline are you going to choose? Or is that not part of it? You don't actually hold yourself to the fire?

6:12Yeah, I like that. I'm going headline, too. So I've been on this thing where I'm like, I'm not giving up on the Chiefs. I still said if I had to pick one team to get to the Super Bowl in the AFC, I'm still going with the Chiefs, even though they wouldn't make the playoffs right now. And I'm so with you with the comparison to last year. Last year, I was going the opposite. They're kind of fraudulent. They're winning all these fluky games, but I see them this year. And I'm like, I made the point that if this year's team played last year's team this weekend, I think I would still pick this year's team.

6:43Is that crazy? No, it's not crazy. I think you and I are on the same page. And they've had a little luck go the opposite way this year where they had it all work out in their favor last year. But this, I also don't think this Colts, we'll see how good this Colts defense actually is. That is not the strength of their team. The strength of their team is Johnson Taylor. And I think it also, like, to talk about the Colts and not talk about Daniel Jones feels a little bit unfair. I think the Chiefs are going to be in the game late. And I think that's part of it also. You're asking me to pick Daniel Jones late in a game.

7:16Or I guess Jonathan Taylor, he ran them to a win. I guess it was in overtime, so it wasn't time constraints on it that much. But you're asking me to pick Daniel Jones versus Patrick Mahomes in a tight game. And that's really hard for me to do, man. Yeah, I've tried not to be like a full, you know, settle down a little bit on the Colts guy. I mean, I have been that guy, but, you know, seven turnovers, 12 sacks in his last two games, Daniel Jones and Justin. Now I said this, a lot of what I'm saying now, I said last week before the Chiefs played the Broncos, I'm like, they need this game. They're a good team and they still lost, but I'm going to say it again until they're mathematically eliminated.

7:53I'm going to keep saying it. I picked the Colts preseason to be a real Super Bowl contender. Like it was my big thing. I was excited when they're ripping off the, they're going to win their division easily. They have all the weapons. All they need is like a functional quarterback and they have a functional quarterback. We've seen them do it. They're going to be so good. I thought their defense would be better than it's been so far. But, and so like I was, I was living on that on get up every morning, all season. Right now I'm getting nervous. It's getting hot. I'm getting nervous. I should switch to my Colts.

8:22It's so fun when you have the preseason take that hits, you know, because there are, there are many where you're like, Oh God, I hope no one remembers what I said. When you get one that hits, especially like that, that's going out on a limb. So, yeah. It's like one for every five. You know how it works. Listen, that's good, but you just forget about the other four. You know what I'm saying? That's all. So, all right. Let's get to the next game here. Eagles at Cowboys. Headline one, frustrations grow as Eagles offense hits rock bottom and lost to Cowboys. That's headline number one. Headline two, get right game for Eagles as offense explodes in win at Dallas.

9:04So how are you? This is a little temperature check, Dominique, on this Eagles offense that has looked horrible going up against a Cowboys defense that has not played well, but now has new pieces. So maybe they're a new defense here in the second half of the season. How are we feeling about this one? Yeah, I was on two until I got to the word explodes. I think if the Eagles win, it's going to be a result of their defense, which it's just been out of this world up until this point. I understand when you get down to a Dory Jackson and potential man coverage situations with George Pickens or CeeDee Lamb, that doesn't make you feel confident.

9:40But it doesn't matter if your quarterback's running for his life. And I think the Cowboys have an offensive line that can hold up. But the way that the Eagles defensive fronts have been played the last few weeks, Like, I would say that they're not the best defense in football over a body of work, but no one's played better in these recent weeks. And if they can keep playing like that, I think they find a way to win this game. But I got to be honest with you. I know you're an Eagles guy, but it'd be so much fun if the Cowboys won. It would give us so many more weeks of content and interest if the Cowboys could make this division slightly interesting.

10:17because if they don't, both them and the Chiefs, because they play each other Thanksgiving, right, after that. Right. Yeah. So they need to keep it interesting. I'm with you, Tim. I'm actually team content. My daughter even got me the T-shirt custom made last year, you know, for the birthday. Team content. So I want what's good for us, you know? Yeah, for sure. My wife's the only one who believes me because whether the Eagles win or lose, like, I'm the same guy. I just need something good. Let's get something juicy to talk about here. You mentioned Adorey Jackson, and it's like this Eagles defense is playing awesome.

10:50That's obviously the one spot where you have questions about that outside corner spot. Like just from a coaching perspective with Vic Fangio in a game like this where you're facing two excellent wide receivers, how much can the coordinator do schematically, whether it's putting the safety over the top on that side or having Quinion Mitchell play the boundary versus the field, like those types of things. Is it like, yeah, there's stuff he can do, but at some point it's going to be, you know, third and seven and a Dory Jackson is going to have to make a play? Or do you think those schematic tweaks can really make a big difference?

11:21Yeah, and I think the tweaks can make a big difference. But the problem with the with the tweaks is they know that the tweaks have to come. And you can't do it every time because you're going to put to as good as Quinone Mitchell is. There's no corner in this league that I think can play man coverage a whole game against a really good quarterback and a really good receiver. If that were possible, they would change the rules to make it impossible. It's like they will not allow it to happen. So that's a lot to ask, especially against a top-tier receiver, no matter who they put Quinion on, whether it's Seedy or George Pickens.

11:55Those guys are incredible. So the benefit, I guess, of having if your weak spot is a corner is there are things that you can do. The best thing you can do is win up front. If Dak is throwing off his back foot, if Dak is sacked, If Dak is just terrified because that line can't hold up at all, that makes coverage in the back end a lot easier. But if you want to do something to help him, I think the Eagles have trended towards away from the cover four base to more man coverage, and I think that's been important. But in certain situations, they shift back to a lot more zone, and so I think it depends on how well Adore Jackson holds up if they have to shift to more zone.

12:33And I hate to say it, but Dak will eat that zone alive. His accuracy down the middle of the seams, I think that's what he wants. So if they can keep tight man coverage, that gives more time for the rush to get home. So I think that's what we're going to be looking for is how much time can they buy in man coverage and how many reps can they buy leaning help away from everyone else in order to help Adore Jackson. I think disguising it helps and mixing it up. I hate to go back to the last game, but I think that's what helped a lot with Patrick Mahomes is they would double two receivers on most of the third down.

13:09So the Broncos would go and double Kelsey and Worthy sometimes. And then they would do it for a couple snaps. And so then I would assume that Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, like, all right, they're going to double them. We're going to go find Rice. And then surprisingly, the next snap, they got Rice doubled. And it will slow down his processing. So I think that's like a blueprint to use is like just keep it mixed up. And your defense is so good and so flexible and smart that they're capable of doing it. You don't have linebackers that you need to protect, which most teams have linebackers that they need to protect in the passing game.

13:43This defense is a pretty close to perfect modern NFL defense and is flexible and can do a bunch of things. Yeah, I do love that. The great coordinators, it feels like they do have those change-ups and those high leverage moments. Even last week in that Eagles game, I think was a fourth down for the Lions. And the Eagles played their only snap of dime all game, bringing Michael Carter on the field and playing man coverage where they were zoned for most of that game. And it's just like those little different things where you create some uncertainty with the offense. I love when you can catch some of those with the veteran defensive coordinators.

14:18I did want to ask you one because you did a great interview on the press box with our friends here at the Ringer. And so I wanted to ask you like a media question because on the offensive side of the ball right now, I am in Philly and in Philadelphia, there are these reports. So, you know, in sources inside the building are saying Jalen Hurts is doing X, Y, and Z. There's frustrations about him leaving plays on the field as a former player. Like how were there times where, you know, you wonder, all right, who's saying that? Are those conversations? Is it like, I know who's saying that? Because I remember I covered the Seahawks and like KJ Wright was a guy who was very curious about how kind of the sauce.

14:53was made. So I remember even when there was like a contract thing, he would be like, so who's doing and I'm like, well, sometimes it's the agent has a relationship with the insider. But I was wondering from your perspective, what's that like for the players when those reports start surfacing? Yeah, I mean, I think that most of it doesn't happen that often. And I think it happens when you're a team like the Eagles and when you have interesting people in this situation. So like, fortunately, I was rarely that I mean, I guess fortunately is the wrong word, but I was rarely that high profile of player to be one of the people caught up in that.

15:26But the thing about most teams is the issues before they get to the media, they've already been said. That's the thing about football is the, it's pretty obvious. We have meetings and the whole team is in there and you know what's wrong. And first of all, you know, when you messed up before anyone else can tell you. And most of the time, everyone's gives you like the pat on the back platitude, like you'll get them the next time type of thing. But if there's a bunch of next times and you don't get it right, somebody's going to pull you up in your face. So ultimately, it's never really a concern of who's saying it.

15:59We never get past like, how do we fix it? I think the part that makes this kind of interesting is there seems to be at least a segment of the media that wants to argue that it's not broken with Philadelphia, which I understand it's not broken because they keep winning, but it doesn't seem like anyone on the team actually believes that. No one is coming out in defense of how it's operating. We in the media occasionally, but they're winning. They're being smart. They're not taking risks. But none of them are saying this is how it's designed. This is how we want it to work. And the people who are actually close to it.

16:38So my guess is whoever has something to say about how the offense is working has already said it and the fact that it's getting out doesn't feel any type of way like i know i never remember being on a team where like frustrations with ability like i played opposite champ bailey in denver yeah there was a couple games where i didn't play so well i didn't i wasn't worried about who leaked to the media that i didn't play well because i didn't play well like i knew it so that's that yeah i don't So I doubt that any of the guys on the team really care that much where it's coming from. Yeah, the things that are being said, I mean, A.J.

17:14Brown has said it publicly, you know, to the media. And you can see it on film and you can see it in the numbers. You're right. There's not a aura of like, hey, we're fine. We're eight and two from the team. They're like, no, like this needs to get better because we're trying to get back to the Super Bowl here. All right. So for the headline, so you said you like the second one, but you're not going with explodes. But you think maybe the Eagles, you know what? I think if I had to pick what's more likely the Eagles offense explodes or hits rock bottom, I actually think I would pick headline one.

17:41That frustrations grow. I need to see it. I need to see it before I believe that they fix things with this offense. So I'm going to go with headline one on that one. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We got another game to get to. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field, but getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure, they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance when they're State Farm.

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19:30Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. Next game is Bucks at Rams. Dominique, headline one, Stafford Cements MVP case lights Bucks up in another Rams victory. Headline two, Bucks shake up NFC playoff picture with upset win at SoFi. So we got Baker, we got Stafford. Rams are, I think, six and a half point favorites in this game. How are you feeling about this matchup?

20:17Yeah, that's the easiest one you've given me so far. I'm going with number one. Of course, I could be wrong. Things could go the other way. But that, I think another like offensive storyline of the season is like the heavy personnel stuff that the Rams are doing. It's getting a lot more attention. But the trick to the heavy personnel stuff is that you are creating an advantage in the passing game by forcing the opponent to stay in base. And teams have been really effective, particularly the Rams are the standout team that's using 13 personnel, three tight ends, to attack through the air, not through the run because the base defense is like less multiple.

20:55You can't do fewer things, and it challenges the defense less. And the linebackers that you've left in the game are less comfortable in coverage than if you go to some sort of sub package, which would be nickel or dime or some added defensive back. And I don't – there are certain teams, so the Seahawks did a great job against the Rams, in part because they don't need the substitute. They have athletes that are physical enough to play against the run and versatile enough to play against the pass, and they can still do all their games up front with those guys. That's not something that the Bucs do.

21:27They are going to go ahead and stay in base and open themselves up to the pass game threat from the Rams. So one of the issues is Tyler Higbee, who's like their best blocking tight end, is injured and probably not going to play in this game. So that slows down the Rams' possibility. But the Rams fortunately have Puka Nakua, who is kind of like a tight end, but faster. He's a very physical receiver and incredibly good route runner also. So he creates matchup problems for them there too. The problem with the Bucs offense is their offense had been thriving a lot early in the year on Baker's athleticism and him running and making things happen in tough situations.

22:08He did it again last week, but he hadn't been doing it since that gap in the middle where they fell off and they were dealing with a bunch of injuries. So I don't feel as confident in this Bucs team that got off to an early start of a lot of, we talk about those one score games, a lot of last second victories that I think were fun and cool. And we had Baker MVP talks, but I don't think they're as good as the Rams and the Rams coming off going against the Seahawks. I think bounce back to the offensive form that we expect. Yeah. The Bucs, it felt like we're September, October champs. And now it's like, no one is the, the Bucs don't get a mention anywhere in the conversation.

22:45I want to follow up on the 13 personnel thing. This has been like, you know, a lot of people talking about it the last few weeks, The nerds like me are like, well, why don't you just do what the Seahawks did? Like, like, obviously you want to limit the explosive plays. And if they run for five yards of carry, make them do that on an 80 yard drive and see if they can do it the whole time. I know, you know, having talked to coaches before that they don't always think that way. Is it just like, like, like, why wouldn't Todd Bowles watch that from last week and be like, oh, of course, like that's the, I would rather lose, you know, if we're going to lose, I'd rather lose this way than that way.

23:18Is it just a mindset thing? Is it, well, we don't just don't have the bodies to play that way. Like, is it a stubbornness? How do you kind of view that? I think what you're asking is why not play in a nickel package and be softer against the run? Correct. Right. So because when in practice, five yards a carry, I mean, in theory, five yards a carry or four yards a carry or three yards a carry is actually three yards a carry in theory. But in practice, what it actually normally is, is two, two, one, 10. or you end up five yards and carry someone and hits you for a 30 or 50. Because while we talk about the linebackers being uncomfortable in coverage, the secondary guys are just as uncomfortable in the run game.