Predicting the Week 13 NFL Headlines

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Sheil Kapadia. Today we are looking at the week 13 slate. We are predicting headlines we might read after these games. Fun Thanksgiving Day slate. Fun Black Friday game between the Eagles and the Bears. And then on Sunday afternoon, we've got Bill Steelers and Texans cold. So we will predict some headlines. Our guest today is the Ringer's very own Steven Ruiz. Let's take a break. We come back. We talk week 13. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play.

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1:53All right, we are back here with Stephen Ruiz talking about headlines we might see after week 13. Ruiz, usually I let the guests go first, but I got one of the Thanksgiving Day games, so I hope you don't find it rude that I'll go first here. No, go ahead and feel free to be rude to me if you want to. Okay, all right, we will. We'll see if we can make that a theme. All right, we're going to go to the second game on Thanksgiving. my headline Cowboys stun Chiefs keep playoff hopes alive. So Cowboys at home three and a half point underdogs here against the Chiefs. I was looking at this and I don't know.

2:29It's probably just recency bias, but I'm looking at it going. If the Cowboys can win one of these next two games, they've got the Chiefs this week. They've got the Lions next week, and then they can win out Vikings, Chargers, commanders, giants. I was doing the old, you know, the athletics playoff simulator. They've got like a great chance to make the playoffs. And that doesn't seem like a crazy scenario here. So I kind of like the matchup for them. I just think with Lamb and Pickens and Dak playing the way they are right now, they're kind of a tough matchup for almost any defense in the NFL. And then the Cowboys defense, which was terrible for most of the season, you know, Jerry cooked a little bit.

3:06Maybe I have to admit I'm wrong. The defense has looked very different. the last two weeks with Quinn and Williams, with Logan Wilson, with them getting some guys back healthy. And so I think the Cowboys have a good chance to pull off the upset here. Am I, are you with me? Or do you think this is going to be one of those where Stephen A is posting like the clip afterwards, laughing at anybody who got their hopes up about this team? No, I'm with you. And I'm happy that you, we gave, we have to give Jerry credit where it's due. And I think we have to go back to the off season and kind of give that, I don't know if it's Jerry that gets the credit for it or Stephen Jones or anyone involved in the operation, but for the George Pickens trade too, another low value trade, buy low.

3:49It's working out for them, but I'm right there with you because of the run defense. And the run defense has been fixed at least over the last two weeks. The run defense has been really good. And I know they've played some teams that aren't, the Eagles run game isn't what it used to be, but the Chiefs run game isn't very formidable. So I think this can be one of those games where you're watching the Chiefs offense and you're thinking, oh man, they're not explosive. They're not moving the ball. And if they can't run the ball at all, I think it makes it worse. And I just think this is the perfect matchup.

4:17Not the perfect matchup, but a great matchup going up against a Steve Spagnuolo defense. When you have a quarterback like Dak Prescott, who has seen all the blitzes you could throw at him, knows how to navigate that, knows how to fix protection before the snap. I think we could get a high scoring game from the Cowboys. And it's hard for me to see that coming from the Chiefs offense right now. I know, it feels weird to say, But I do agree with you. Now, who knows? Mahomes does, has carved up zone coverage and the Cowboys are a zone heavy team. I think last week against the Eagles, they played three, four snaps of man coverage the entire game.

4:50Now that was against the Eagles. So maybe they switch it up here. But yeah, those defensive tackles, man. Odigizua, Quinn and Williams, Kenny Clark, like in the middle of that line, those are tough guys to deal with. And they played really well last week. Trey Smith, the Chiefs, probably their best offensive lineman, the guard. he's out for this game. He's probably going to be out for a little bit. I think that's a big deal because the Chiefs tried to get back to like running the ball last week. And you're just like, man, how many carries is Kareem Hunt getting in this game? I mentioned it earlier this week, but I'm like 33 touches for Kareem Hunt in like a must win game.

5:25That tells you something about the Chiefs. And they played pretty well, but it's just like, I don't know. Is that what I really want from my offense? So yeah, I'm with you. I don't know if they're going to create a lot of explosive plays offensively. I think Mahomes is going to feel some pressure from the interior. And I just didn't leave that Chiefs-Colts game last week feeling like, oh, the Chiefs are a different, I think very differently about the Chiefs right now. No, it really came down to them. And by them, I mean their defense getting three straight, three and outs and four straight if you extend it to overtime.

5:53And I don't think you're going to get that type of defensive performance against the Cowboys. And you're not going to get that type of defensive performance that provides such a margin for error for the offense. And this is the type of offense that this Chiefs defense under Spagnuolo tends to struggle with. When you have talent on the outside, it just makes things so much harder, harder to play man coverage. And if the Chiefs defense, like what they're best at is either playing tight man coverage where you're forcing tight window throws, which Dak throws more tight window throws than anybody in the NFL for like four years running now, or they fool you with their simulated pressures and their zone coverages.

6:29And we know Dak is one of the best at picking those apart. So this is a tough matchup all around. And I know it's dumb to pick against the Chiefs in a big spot where they desperately need to win. But I'm with you here. I think the Cowboys not only win this game, but I think we're feeling really good about them going forward after this one. I mean, it just feels like they're definitely, you know, like I think you and I, when did we do that pot? It was probably five weeks ago or something now, but you had them as a top five team in the NFC and then they faltered and now they're back. And now you kind of look at them and you're like, do I feel better about seven other teams in the NFC over Dallas?

7:03I mean, I think the answer is no. It's just a matter of did they dig themselves too much of a hole? We're now the margin for error slim. So we'll see. We both kind of like the Cowboys. We're buying the hype of the last two weeks here. Maybe Stephen A will get the last laugh on Thanksgiving. All right, Ruiz, what's your first headline that we got? All right, I'm going to the Colts-Texans game. And my headline is, is this the NFL's most intriguing division, the AFC South? It's a division that we've ignored probably for good reason for the last one. I don't even know how long going back, maybe like 10 decades now.

7:38But if the Jags are playing the Titans, so let's just give them a win and assume they go to eight and four. If the Texans are able to pull off this upset, and it's not that big of an upset, I think they're underdogs by four and a half points. The standings after this game are eight and four Colts, eight and four Jags, seven and five Texans, with two Jags-Colts games left and one Colts-Texans game left. Like that's everything to play for. and I kind of wanted to pick your brain on this one. How would you stack those three teams? I'm having a hard time picking this game in particular. I don't trust the Jags at all because I mean, if you watch them every week, it seems like they're ready to throw away a game.

8:17But this game could really, I think it could change my mind on who I think is going to win this division because I'm locking on the Colts right now. But the Texans, the way they play defense, they're getting CJ Stroud. He started practicing this week. I think he's expected to play this week. He's going to be back at least the week after that, at the very least. Since week three, try to guess where he ranks in EPA per dropback. I think it's going to be better than most people would expect because I was looking at the numbers earlier this week, and I was like, oh, I would say 11. He ranks third.

8:53Third, really, since week three. Since week three, so starting with week four on, and that includes the Seattle game on Monday night where it was just a disaster. If you take away that game, it's even higher. But he ranks behind Drake May and Jordan Love and just ahead of Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott. I was going insane listening to the discourse of people bringing up, hey, should we start Davis Mills going forward? Are you guys crazy? Like it's an insane discussion that's going on in Houston. But the run game still stinks. But outside of that, they have all the pieces you need to make a playoff run.

9:25And I don't like what I've seen out of the Colts offense for the past couple of weeks, especially with regard to the pressure that Daniel Jones has been under. I know he didn't take a sack last week against the Chiefs, but the three games before that, he took 15 sacks combined. And the Chiefs were getting plenty of pressure. He was just getting rid of the ball early, throwing checkdowns, and they were getting gobbled up and getting tackled for minimal gains. If that's the approach against a Texans defense, that's what they want. They swarmed to the football, they tackled, they minimized Yak. I think this could be a game that the Texans pulled an upset in.

9:56If that's the case, this division is wide open. Yeah, the Stroud thing, we have to see still. Yeah, it looks like he was, you know, out there practicing. So that's good because I know earlier this week, D 'Amico Ryan said he still hadn't cleared the concussion protocol. And I was like, ooh, you know, like they really could use him for this game. And it's hard to, sometimes we just assume, all right, a guy's back. You know, it's hard to come back from a freaking concussion and just be the guy you were previously. But my feelings are pretty similar to where you are. And I'm sure, you know, if you're a Colts fan who you listen to the show, often you're probably sick of hearing about it, but I think the Texans have a real shot here to overtake this division.

10:36I've got the Jaguars third, you know, when you said just kind of rank them because of what you said. I just, I can't get behind them. Like you said, let's give them the win against the Titans. I'm like, they're going to lose one of these games that they're big favorites in. So I don't trust them. So I do think it's Texans or the Colts. And this Texans defense is so good that you don't need a great offensive performance in any of these weeks. You kind of just need like enough. I mean, I think the defense is just going to keep them in a lot of these games. The bones of that defense with those edge rushers and the coaching with D 'Amico Ryans and the corners.

11:11Like if you just say pass rushing corners, they are the best in the NFL. And they've got the coach who's done it against very good offenses before, which I know you and I have talked about, which we really like. He's got that resume, that track record. And so, yeah, I do give the Texans a really good chance here. I know they were four and a half point underdogs before when it was a little unclear whether Stroud was playing or not. I don't know if that line has moved or not, but they've been really good. Daniel Jones, fourth highest turnover worthy play percentage in the NFL, leads the NFL in fumble.

11:42So even with all the good that he's done, like there are some mistakes there, some potential mistakes against a great defense. So you're right about the Colts. Like we went from, Hey, the Colts could be the one seed in the AFC to now. Again, I looked at that playoff simulator. If they lose this game, they're under a coin flip. They're 45 % to win the division if they lose this game. So I don't think people realize like there's a lot riding on this game and I'm with you. AFC South is back, baby. Kind of fun. Is it back? It has to be, it has to arrive. You know what I mean? Like this is, it just arrived.

12:19but as for like the matchup between the Colts offense and the Texans defense we've seen four of these matchups so far since Steichen has gotten there Steichen and Ryans the Colts have been able to run the ball there's been two games where they've been they've been good on offense two games where they've been horrid on offense but in all four games they've been able to run the ball what's kind of dictated whether they win the game or perform well on offense is the passing game and that's where you put it on Daniel Jones and like you mentioned he's been fumbling the ball The turnovers are increasing.

12:48And that's happened recently. Like we're seeing the worst of this recently, which lends credence to the theory that once defensive coordinators get film on this, they're going to be able to start slowing down this offense. And I think that has happened to a certain extent. I do think the Colts are going to be able to run the ball. And I think the question is, will they be able to run the ball for explosives? I think that's going to be the difference in this one. And that's really been the difference for this offense this year. This run game has just been able to generate explosive run after explosive run after explosive run.

13:17And the Texans, for how good they are on defense, they are susceptible to a run game that... The run game style like the Colts, like where you're seeing trap plays, you're seeing creative run styles. And every week the Colts seem to have a new run concept of the week. And I think Shane Steichen's going to have something prepared for this Texans front, which, like I said, can be taken advantage of. So I think that's where the game is won or lost. If the Texans can hold them to one or two explosive runs. I think the Texans have a very good shot at winning this game, provided that CJ Stroud is playing at the level he was before he got hurt.

13:51If not, I think the Colts win this game, but I do think it comes down to a coin flip. And if it turns up on the Texan side, I don't know who's winning this division because the Jacks kind of have the schedule on their side. They have it all to play for. So I don't trust them, but I do think they have the inside track. Yeah, they do. They've got the easier schedule. Yeah. I mean, the Texans offense, you know, even with those numbers you gave for CJ, I don't fully trust them. You know, let's see the offensive line. They kid, they're one of the worst running teams in the NFL. You've got this Colts cornerback group.

14:24Now it is going to make things tough on those wide receivers. So yeah, I'm with it. It is a fun matchup. I'm looking forward to this game. There's a lot at stake here. The narratives that you talk about in, you know, mid-October can flip very quickly and they could flip very quickly with this division or the Colts could come out and their offense could play really well. And we're like, hey, they've been the best offense in the NFL through 12 weeks. They had one game where maybe it wasn't quite as good. They didn't finish strong, but you know what? There's still reason to believe in them. So I'm with you.

14:55Could go either way. I lean Texans a little bit though in this game. I just, it's that I can't get that Texans-Bills Thursday night game out of my head where I'm like, oh my gosh, that defense can just take over a game. So fun to watch. All right, let's take a break. We come back, we'll do a little Eagles, Bears, and Bill Steelers. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.

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16:58or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2.

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18:07Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. I had a hard time with this game, but I'm doing Eagles-Bears. Black Friday, Saquon finally breaks out, lifts Eagles to win over Bears. I don't even know if I believe it, Ruiz, because I predicted this on like three different occasions this year. It has not happened. The Eagles cannot get their run game going. It's the worst their run game has been since Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni were a tandem in 2021. It's never been this bad. If you watch their offensive line last week, you really see, I mean, I thought that might have been the worst offensive line performance in five years.

18:56Again, with Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni, it just looks totally different with guys playing injured, guys banged up. But both these teams have a little like, do we actually believe in either of these teams right now? You know, Bears are six and one in one score games. We know the Eagles have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown. And so I'm looking at that Bears defense that has just been feasting on turnovers, but is so banged up, down a bunch of linebackers like they were last week. And I'm wondering if there's some way for this to be the game that the Eagles jumpstart their run game a little bit.

19:31Where are you with this game, Bears-Eagles? Yeah, I'm kind of with you on this one. I don't really trust either team, but the Eagles kind of have that inherent trust built in just because we've seen them do it, especially in January. But if they can't run on this defense, then I think you have serious concerns. Wave the white flag. It's time to panic, especially with the offense. I think the defense, like injury-wise, is kind of concerning. But beyond that, I think you can trust them for the most part. But Dennis Allen, the defensive coordinator for the Bears, has also always had trouble with mobile quarterbacks and the element they bring to the run game.

20:05So I think there is a good chance that the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball. Would have they been able to run the ball in two or three games, maybe? Maybe one or two where you really felt like it was a factor in the game. But I think this could be one of them. And then on the other side of the ball with Vic Fangio going up against one of these under center play action offenses, like that's kind of what he's been known to shut down in the past. Like he's had his success against Sean McVay. I think we're going to see them get, you know, I think they're going to be able to stop the run.

20:33Well, I guess that's more of a question. I think that decides the game. But if they can't stop the run and you put this game on Caleb Williams against a stingy defense, I think it could be an ugly game for Caleb on national television, which won't be good for the discourse. But I do think there's a chance that the Eagles bounce back in a big way on this one. But if they don't, oh my God, I would be panicking. I want to listen to WIP the next day if they aren't able to run the ball here. It's so funny. Everything you said there, I'm like, I can kind of see everything go either way. I don't know.

21:04I mean, these are two very hard teams to figure out. I mean, with the Eagles' run game, Saquon Barkley is 31st out of 34 backs in rushing success rate. and he's never been like the greatest rushing success rate guy, but he's got two runs of 20 plus yards this entire season. So yeah, if you can't run it on this team, I just think there's really not a lot of hope for this Eagles run game. And then the Bears, it's so funny. Six and one in one score games, first in turnover EPA. I looked at a DVOA, according to DVOA, this is the worst eight and three team of all time. Yet I kind of find them fun because they can run the ball, they can create explosives with Caleb Williams.

21:43and on turn on defense, it's just like, hey, either we get lit up or we create a turnover. Like that's a formula for a fun season. If you're the Bears fan base and man, if they win this game and go to nine and three, like they're eight and three right now, first place in the NFC North, yet they're third in the odds to win the NFC North. So it's like at some point we have to say, all right, maybe they've gotten a little bit lucky, but they're in a great position here. So I'm very curious to see how this game goes on both sides. You know, the Eagles are down. a safety in Drew Makuba. They're starting safeties out.

22:16We know their second cornerback spot is an issue. So I think there will be opportunities for Ben Johnson to cook a little bit against this defense that struggled against some of that under center play action last week against Dak Prescott. So they don't have George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, but they've had an offense that can create some explosive plays. So yeah, I think whichever fan base loses this game, well, they're in different spots. I think Bears fans are probably still like, all right, that was annoying, but we're still in a good spot. If the Eagles offense doesn't play well here, I think everything's on the table, including all of a sudden there's a play calling change or something next week.

22:52So yeah, I think this will be a big narrative game. I think you're kind of wrong about the Bears, like the psyche of the Bears fan base. They're getting driven insane by the Caleb. I guess it's like to them, it's a Caleb roller coaster. This is who I blame. I was about to get into this rant before we recorded the pod and I saved it for the pod. I blame Ben Johnson for this and I blame him specifically for setting the 70 % completion rate goal for Caleb Williams. Now Bears fans have this exact number that they're comparing his actual stat line to, and they're going, oh, he's not hitting the goal, so he's failing in this offense.