Predicting the Week 16 NFL Headlines

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2:06Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Today we are predicting headlines for three Week 16 matchups. We've got some big ones. Seahawks-Rams on Thursday night. Bears Packers on Saturday night and Jaguars Broncos on Sunday afternoon. Who would have guessed that Jaguars Broncos in week 16 would have such huge implications? Then at the end in the hurry up, I want to talk about Lions Steelers really quick as well. All right, my guest today is the Ringers, Deontay Lee. We will predict what we think is going to happen in those games and break down the matchups. Let's take a break and come back with Deontay.

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3:26Diante Lee:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with Deontay Lee. Deontay, let's start with, I think it's okay to call this the game of the year right now. Thursday night, Rams, Seahawks. Which way is this one going to go? We know what's at stake. I'll give you kind of the percentages and stuff in a minute, but start us off. What is your headline for this game that we're going to be reading about next week? I think the headline is going to read, not a fluke. Los Angeles stamps itself as the NFC's best. I think it's easy to look at their matchup from earlier in the season and say, oh, you know, Seattle for turnovers.

4:02They get these stops in the red zone close to the goal line. They're able to kind of keep the game in range, start to make a little bit of a comeback in the third quarter and just kind of run out of time really in the fourth. You know, Sam Dronald isn't able to close the deal. I think that that might be an incorrect reading of that game. I think that you should not bank on Los Angeles getting in the red zone the way that they did in that first matchup and not cashing it in with touchdowns, right? We have seen that against basically every other team they've played this year is that when they get the ball inside the 30s, it's automatic for Matthew Stafford right now.

4:33And I think that since he's been helped recently with this kind of progression in the run game, I think that you're going to be seeing a different version of this Rams offense. You know, one that kind of got after Seattle in the first half in their run game in their first matchup. But I think now they're even better at it and have a few more leverage to pull. I do expect Los Angeles to kind of control the game. I don't think it's going to be a blowout. I don't think it's going to be a multi-possession game. But I do think that they'll be able to get up early and kind of keep Seattle at arm's length.

5:01Diante Lee:All right. We're on the same side of this. I took the low-hanging fruit, Deontay. And mine is Darnold's mistakes cost Seahawks again in loss to Rams. And I actually hope I'm wrong about this because I think the more fun outcome for content is if Darnold plays really well and they win this game. And all of a sudden we're going into the last two weeks going, wait, who is the best team in the NFC? Who's going to get the one seed? But I just and I'm not trying to do the morning talk show segment here, but I just don't know how you view this as anything other than sort of a referendum game for Darnold.

5:33Diante Lee:Now, if he plays poorly here and then he plays great in the playoffs, fine. But if you're a Seahawks fan and you watch this game and Darnold doesn't play well, you're going to be like, man, this has been a roller coaster of a season. I love our defense, but I cannot trust this man in the playoffs to win three games and get us to the Super Bowl. And that's kind of what their expectations are now for the Seahawks with the way their season has gone. So we don't know if their left tackle is going to be available. Charles Cross, we know what happened the first time Darnold played this Rams defense.

6:05Diante Lee:And overall, it's been a hit. I mean, you look at all the passing statistics. I think he's top five in dropback success rate. So it's not just kind of the explosive plays. It's been more their run game that has let them down. But I just wonder if he's going to make that one mistake. Because I think it's going to be a low, I'm with you, low scoring game, competitive game. But I think like everybody would say, hey, which quarterback do we trust more in this spot? And it's like the burden of proof is on Darnold to prove that, no, you're all wrong. I'm not that guy. 100%. And I think that what you're describing to me is kind of confirmation of how I feel, right?

6:43About how important trend lines are in this sport, right? Because if you were just take, if it was just a random smattering, right? Let's take all of like the EPN success rate numbers on a game by game basis from Seattle and you just shuffled them up. And then I handed it back to you. And some of those early season performances are closer to what will be happening in December. we would probably feel differently, right? You would walk in saying, hey, he's hot. He's been able to push the ball downfield. You've got Jackson Smith and Jigba. They should be able to go blow for blow with Los Angeles.

7:11I think that when you look at what it's been over the last month, and not all of this is on Darnold, and I've reflected this in the power rankings, right? There have been weeks where he's made mistakes. But for the most part, I think that what's happening now is what happened at the end of last year with Minnesota, which is the run game abandons you, the offensive line, the attrition just over the season. You see the offensive line kind of take a little bit of a half step back. And now for a quarterback like Darnold, it's hard for him to change gears, right? The problem is rarely Sam Darnold not doing what he does best often enough, because what he does best is always going to be there, pushing the ball downfield aggressively, taking what's there within the structure of the play, you know, being an asset in the play action game.

7:52All those things will be there no matter what. What he struggles with is when things change fast, right? When things change rapidly, when the first look's not there, when he's got to hold the ball for a bit, and he's just been in those positions more often over the last four to five weeks, especially against top competition. You've seen it against the Vikings. You've seen it against the Colts. You got to see it in their first matchup with the Rams, where it's just uneven. You get these uneven performances, and it's against a team like Los Angeles. It's as balanced as it is. I'm right there with you.

8:24I can see him having a decent game, but maybe having the one or two key turnovers that end up turning this thing.

8:30Diante Lee:Yeah, I think the Rams defense can be. I'm very curious to see the Seahawks offensive approach, because if you just did it on paper and someone like me, I'd say that their secondary can be had. I know their corners. They've overachieved. I think the defense overall has overachieved. But we saw it even last week with Jared Goff and Amon Ross St. Brown. We've seen it in previous weeks that they're they're gettable. Absolutely. But I think you look at the Seahawks and Mike McDonald's makeup and the way he's coached this team and the way the first matchup went, I just don't think they're going to come out and say, let's, let's put the ball in Sam Darnold's hands against this Rams defense.

9:07Diante Lee:And again, their run game just hasn't been there for most of the season. I mean, you know, they, they're running the ball on early downs, but it's really been the explosive plays in the past game that have carried their offense. So I'm curious about that approach. And then the other side of the ball, man, these are just like two of the best schemers in the NFL, two of the best coaches in the NFL, Mike McDonald against Sean McVay. And I don't know that people realize because the Rams won that first game, how well the Seahawks defense played there. I was looking at the numbers today. Honestly, it was lights out.

9:40Diante Lee:Yeah, I mean, that was the Rams' worst game by success rate in the last two years, which is wild when you consider how well they've played this entire season. They just don't have games like that. Usually it was Matthew Stafford's worst game as a Ram in terms of EPA per pass play. I mean, that's a big sample. That's going back to 2021. So now McVay sees, all right, this is what they did on film. Let's do this this time around. And then McDonald's good at adjusting. So that side of the ball is going to be fascinating as well. I'm with you 100 % on that. It's funny, right? Like the flow of the game early in the game was not a real accurate representation of what we saw in the hole, right?

10:20Because they get that opening drive touchdown, you get the turnover, I think they hold Seattle to a field goal and then they drive right back downfield. So it's easy to kind of feel like, oh, I'm looking at a team that's down by a couple of scores. Maybe Los Angeles found something against that defense. You go back and rewatch. And like I said, after they made those adjustments coming out of the first quarter, Los Angeles really didn't have anything offensively the rest of that game. And that's what the healthy Devontae Adams and Pukanakua. Right. Now you're coming into a week where you might not have your big red zone dominator the way that you do.

10:49You've had Pukanakua have to leave the game in spurts over the last couple of weeks. I'm really fascinated to see what the physicality of Seattle's defense can do to Los Angeles if they are able to hold this game in a neutral script. Right. As long as you're not chasing the Rams early in this game, I do think that the chance is there for Seattle's defense to end up having a say in a major impact on what the ultimate results is.

11:11Diante Lee:And then of course, you know, I'm going to be watching the decision-making Deontay because McVay has, has been a different guy this year. He's been now part of it. I think was he didn't, you know, he didn't trust special teams, but he's been going forward more. That has kind of been something. He has not been aggressive in the past. Maybe he's like, man, this offense is lights out. We can continue to go for it. And Mike McDonald was a great motivator, right? I think you can kind of trace it back to that Eagles game. And he probably walked away thinking like, I was one aggressive decision away from beating the team that beat us in the NFC division around and was last year was the best team in the NFL last year.

11:45And I do think to your point that he has kind of learned that lesson into, you know, what you were just saying. He knows he has a shot, right? And I think that for a coach like McVay, he would be kicking himself for years if the 2025 Rams weren't contending and weren't the number one team in the NFC because he chose field goals over going for touchdowns or chose right instead of going for this quarterback

12:04Diante Lee:in this offense yeah no absolutely yeah and then mike mcdonald great job last week you know using the timeouts and giving themselves a chance but we also know he knows what the strength of his football team is right and you know there have been times this season where he's like nope we're not you know well i understand what the numbers say i think he listens to him but he also knows what the strength of his football team is so that's going to be another interesting aspect to this game as well. All right, we're both on the same side. Let's see if we're right. Let's see if we're wrong with Seahawks Rams on Thursday night.

12:33Diante Lee:All right, next game here, Packers at Bears. Saturday night, Deontay, Bears are home dogs here. What do you got? What's your headline? I think the headline is, oh God, I don't know. It's hard to try to phrase this, right? I think it's no Michael Parsons, no Super Bowl, which I think was a headline I had for Green Bay coming out of last week in the power rankings, right? Like, I think we talked about it when they were playing the Broncos that you need a player like Micah Parsons to make an impact on a quarterback whose biggest strength is escaping the pocket, especially in key situations, being able to extend plays and then push the ball downfield.

13:10and I think the groove that Caleb Williams is in, you would love to have a guy like Michael Parsons to say, hey, they're not going to be able to be in structure because our best edge rusher is just going to be tearing up the field and now Caleb's got to be aware of this guy on a snap-by-snap basis. Everything else for me right now, again, if we're just going by trend lines and not that Green Bay's played poorly defensively, I think that last week against Denver was probably more of an outlier compared to some of the past weeks recently. but I think that for Chicago, they have been tearing zone defense up.

13:42They have looked so good on early downs. They have really found a rhythm in terms of the play action passing game and the run game off of that as well. So I just think that right now, the grooves that Chicago's in, not having your best defensive guy, knowing that there are going to be gaps in Green Bay secondary that you can go attack, I would not be surprised at all if this ends up being another big Caleb Williams performance.

14:03Diante Lee:On the same side again, Deontay, I've got Bears inch closer to a first division title since 2018. And I was thinking about how big of a game this is for the Bears, for their fan base, for Ben Johnson, for Caleb Williams. I mean, I think this is going to be one of the biggest wins in recent Bears memory. I, they haven't won a playoff game since 2010. And I look at this matchup and I just trust Ben Johnson against this Packers defense without Micah Parsons. I just do. I think he's going to have a game plan. I think they're going to be able to run the ball. I think it's going to be a great crowd.

14:41Diante Lee:I think it's going to be a party in Chicago Saturday night. I think that, you know, they're kind of already there where they're like, this is amazing. We've got, I really, but this is going to be the night where if Ben Johnson has a long career, in Chicago that Bears fans are going to go, you know what? That night in week 16, when we beat the Packers, that's when we knew we have a coach who can compete against the big boys. And this was finally going to be a different era of Bears football. Cause that's an exciting moment for a fan base when you have the new coach and you're like, we like the new coach.

15:14Diante Lee:We think we hit it with the new coach, but then there's like that win, you know, or that moment where you're like, Oh, we might really have something here. And I'm not trying to go overboard here. I know it's only been one season and things can go off track very quickly where I might look at this a year from now going, oh my gosh, I can't believe I was buying the Ben Johnson hype. But I am buying it. If we're taking a snapshot of this moment in time, I think he's got the goods. And I've been so impressed with just how they've evolved over the season, how he's figured it out. The personnel isn't perfect.

15:43Diante Lee:They made changes. He said he was going to come in and fix stuff like the run game. He said he was going to help Caleb Williams cut down on sacks. He said he was going to create explosive plays and all those things. They've literally done all of those things in year one. This is only his 16th week coaching the Chicago Bears. So that's where I'm at. I just, I hate, I'm usually very bullish on the Packers. You know this. We've talked a lot over the years. I'm always the guy saying, watch out for the Packers. I just feel like this is too much. I've said it all week. Parsons, Tucker Craft. It looks like Christian Watson's going to play here, but is he fully healthy?

16:19Diante Lee:The offensive line, it's just, to me, too much where I just don't think they're the same team they were a month ago. Well, and I think that this comes back to conversations that we've had over the last couple of years, right? I think that Green Bay has been searching for an infrastructure around Jordan Love that does not ask him to be a superhero, right? And it's not that he can't burn hot. We've seen that over the last like five or six weeks that at his best, he looked just as good as any other quarterback in the NFL, right? He's had moments where he was playing as well as Drake May, as well as Josh Allen, right?

16:52As well as Matthew Stafford. And I think it's entirely possible. And I would say if there's a way for Green Bay to win this game and control this game, it would be that he has a performance this weekend, like he did against Detroit, you know, on Thanksgiving week that is within the realm of possibility. I'm just right there with you, right? I'm focused more on what Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen has done with this team. And I think that what we've seen is confirmation to just how hard it is and how rare it is that you actually get a coaching staff in that immediately raises the level of the roster that they're working with.

17:22I feel differently about this offensive line now that I did three months ago. And it's almost entirely because of what Ben Johnson has done with the run game and the play action game. We all as a football watching public feel differently about Caleb Williams now than three months ago. And almost all of that is what Ben Johnson has built for him. So I think that if this is going to be a Bears win, it's going to be a Ben Johnson win. And I I think if it's a Packers win, it's probably a Jordan Love type of game where we look up and say, oh, my goodness, this guy had 295 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a couple of key scrambles.

17:55I think that that might be what it takes, given the groove that the Bears have been in offensively.

18:00Diante Lee:Yeah, I mean, it's a good point with Love and even LaFleur, because it's not like they can't do it. You know, it's just that their strength was we can win in a bunch of different ways. We can win with Love. We can win with the run game. Our offensive play caller is really good, but we can also win with Micah Parsons just taking over a game and our defense forcing turnovers. And now the identity is different. You can win, but you're probably going to have to win with the offense. And to your point, you know, it's just, can Jordan Love go on a heater? Will Matt LaFleur put the ball in his hands and say, go on a heater.

18:32Diante Lee:We need this. You know, how will he coach this team? Will his wide receivers be playmakers, right? Like, that's been a big storyline, you know? And the Bears secondary has been excellent at getting underneath passes and forcing turnovers that happened to Jordan Love in the first quarter of their first matchup, right? So it's what version of the Bears secondary shows up, what version of the Packers wide receiver court shows up, and whether or not Jordan Love can find a winning margin, you know, between whatever distance exists between those two units. It's going to be fascinating from that perspective because I do think, like you were saying, when the Bears have the ball, I think we're going to see a masterclass from Ben Johnson in converting on third downs and avoiding third and longs and using the run game to really manage game script.

19:13I think that we're going to look at this game and this is going to be one of those zones where we walk away feeling like that was playoff football that we just watched. And we have something to look forward to once we get to the NFC playoffs.

19:23Diante Lee:Yeah. I'm excited for this one. And listen, the bears defense is not great. So, you know, Packers have a chance to move the football efficiently and absolutely win this, their favorites in this game. I just, I can't believe I'm saying it, but at this point in time, I think I do trust the bears more in week 16. So what's at stake here, Deontay with a win, the bears improved to 97 % chance to make the playoffs and an 83 % chance to win the division. And if they lose, it's kind of like, all right, you got some hard games coming up here against the Niners and the lions. You gotta, you gotta get some wins here just to get in the play.

19:59Diante Lee:Like there's, it's not guaranteed that they're in the playoffs and Packers right now with the win would basically be in the playoffs and they'd be 75 % to win the division with the loss. They're still looking good to make the playoffs, but the division chances go down significantly. And then I didn't mention it with the Rams. I think people know this, but just in case with the win, their 90 % chance to get the one seed with the loss that drops to 18%, 90 % or 18 % based on one game there. and the Seahawks would improve to 53 % chance for the one seed with a win and they almost have no chance at it with a loss.

20:39Diante Lee:So lots at stake in these divisional matchups. Those are all courtesy of the Athletics Playoff Simulator. All right, let's take a break. We come back one more game to get to. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Buying something for dad usually goes the same way every year. Guessing, second guessing, ending up with something that collects dust on a shelf. Here's a better idea. WeatherTech. It's the kind of gift he'll actually use. WeatherTech offers unmatched vehicle protection from floor liners and seat protectors to the cup phone and cargo liner. And no, a gift card isn't a cop out.