Predicting the Week 17 Headlines

0:00Diante Lee:For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur.

0:40Diante Lee:Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremfireRadio.com. This episode is brought to you by Spectrum Business. Fast, reliable internet means everything for your business and even this podcast. That's why I trust Spectrum Business. They keep companies of all sizes connected with internet, advanced Wi-Fi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24-7 US-based support. Millions of business owners already trust Spectrum Business.

1:22So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Service is not available in all areas.

1:35Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are predicting headlines for the week 17 matchups. We've got Bill's Eagles. We've got Texans Chargers. We've got Bears 49ers and we've got Ravens Packers. Those are the four games we will be talking about. My guest today is the Ringers, Deontay Lee. We will predict what we think is going to happen in those games and break down the matchups. Let's take a break. We come back with Deontay. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain?

2:21Diante Lee:Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

2:49Diante Lee:All right, we are back here with Deontay Lee previewing week 17. We've got four games. We're going to alternate here. Talk about some headlines we are predicting for these matchups. Deontay, you are first up with Eagles, Bills. Eagles go to Buffalo Sunday. Late window. Bills are favored in this football game. What do you got for us? I think the headline I'm rolling with is finally Philadelphia. Eagles find an offensive rhythm, beat Buffalo in a big win. Oh, interesting. Okay, all right. What does this offensive rhythm look like, Deontay? I think that this is, and I kind of wrote about this a little bit on the power rankings, right?

3:28I think that one of the things that's given me a lot of pause when we talk about Philadelphia and their opportunity to contend this year is that they do look like the 2024 version of themselves against bad teams, right? Against bad defenses, they're typically able to establish what they want in terms of early down running, easy open throws out on the perimeter, and they're able to really kind of manage the possessions game, the turnover battle, et cetera, et cetera. I think that if there is a good team with a defense that's vulnerable enough to do that against, it would be Buffalo's, right? And this has been a season-long issue for Buffalo.

4:02I think that part of this is personnel. They've been banged up at different points. They don't have the best versions of themselves all the time in terms of their front seven, and they've played a lot of lighter bodies as a response. You're seeing them playing dive more often. You see them play all these soft zone shells that are very easy to run into. And I think that Miami was able to get after them a little bit. Honestly, New England has been able to get after them in both of their games in the same fashion. I think that if you're Philadelphia, you've got to come in thinking whether we're in spread, whether we're under center, whether we've got a sixth offensive lineman, whether it's 12 personnel, Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby You should be able to lead the way on the ground.

4:41And that's kind of what I expect to happen if Philadelphia is going to win.

4:45Diante Lee:Yeah, I think we've been waiting all year. Can the Eagles get their run game going? Like, it's been obvious from week one. They're like, we're going to be a running team. And they haven't been a running team, a good running team all season long. And then last week, I mean, it was one game, but Saquon Barkley was like doing some stuff on his own where he was like, ooh, this does look like last season. He had those monster runs in the fourth quarter against the commanders. And to your point, this Bills defense, man, 30th in rushing success rate, 31st in DVOA against the run. You can just, it doesn't, we don't have to dig too deep to figure out how the Eagles will want to play this game, how they will want to attack that defense.

5:23Diante Lee:And I'm curious to see if they're able to do that or not. So yeah, I think that's absolutely the key to this game is the Eagles run game. And the under center spread stuff, I feel like they just kind of changed their mind week to week. How do you look at that? Because, you know, a few weeks ago, it was like, oh, maybe they found something. Eagles are going under center and some play action. And then last week, they're like, oh, we're just going to be shotgun, spread, empty, which Jalen Hurts has been really good at this season. Do you feel like they're just saying, hey, depending on the opponent, the week, we might lean into one, we might lean into the other.

5:58Diante Lee:Or is this more, hey, we're searching for an identity. And I know it's week 17, but we're not quite sure yet. it's a combination but I would definitely say that they kind of play a very soup du jour style of offense right like something's in for a day and then the next day it's off the menu like it's very it's been that way all season right and this is not just in the running game in the passing game you know they come on say okay early down passes we want to get the ball out of our quarterback's hands quickly against the chargers it was a ton of empty right which didn't really work very well we've seen them go under center play action when they really want to attack downfield and the same things existed in the run game i am kind of encouraged at least a bit that they have been able to find their ground game because i think that none of this offense works if they don't have that so maybe there's just enough rhythm maybe the attrition of the season is kind of starting to affect their opponents the way that last season's attrition clearly seemed to affect this offensive line in the first half of the season everybody's heard a little banged up you might get a little bit more success on the ground in that way and then when you consider what's on the other side of the ball with Josh Allen, the game plan kind of has to be, we have got to get to third and short, right?

7:02We've got to run the ball effectively on first down. We've got to get to third and short and we've got to use all four downs as soon as we get to, you know, like the plus or minus third minus 45, you know, on the field to make sure that Allen and that offense is not attacking your defense if you're Philadelphia.

7:16Diante Lee:Yeah. I think both teams are going to want to run the ball. I mean, you look at the bills, they basically come out every week and it's like we do want to run the ball even though uh we have josh allen here and you look at the splits with the eagles defense i mean can those bills pass catchers get open against cooper de jean and quignon mitchell that that's advantage eagles you know now josh allen could go superhero mode and still uh make plays downfield but the bills are still searching for their stuff with the passing game the numbers are all really good but like keon coleman's their fourth leading pass catcher and he was a healthy scratch he's getting healthy scratched yeah you just kind of don't know what they're going to be with their passing game.

7:54Diante Lee:So that's going to be a fun thing to watch as well. I think both teams will try to lean on their backs, dynamic backs, lean on their offensive lines in the run game, and we'll see where that leaves us at the end of that game. All right. Next game, I'm up, Deontay. Saturday afternoon, Texans Chargers we've got here. And just what before the headline, what's at stake here? The Chargers, I don't know if people realize this. If Chargers win their last two games, they win the division. Broncos get bumped to a wild card. That's it. No other caveats. I mean, they've clinched a playoff berth. If they beat the Texans here and beat the Broncos in week 18, they, not the Broncos, are the AFC West champs.

8:36Diante Lee:And then you've got the Houston Texans. They still have a 20 % chance to win the division per the athletics playoff simulator. later. They've got to win their last two games here and have the Jaguars lose one of their last two games here. So that division is still in play for the Houston Texans. I had a tough time with this. I flipped up like 30 times. I don't know how this game is going to go. I ultimately settled on Texans D suffocates Chargers in decisive road win. Do I feel confident about it? Great about it? No, But this is what happens when you're dealing with two teams where you're not that confident in their offensive lines.

9:13Diante Lee:You sort of don't know which way it's going to go. Now, ultimately, I settled on the Texans defense because they didn't play great last week against the Raiders. That felt to me like a random game in a 17-game schedule. That's not necessarily who they are. And for as well as that Chargers team played last week, I think it was the second best game by any offense in a game this season. according to EPA per drive, that was against maybe the worst defense in the league in the Cowboys. And now they get maybe the best defense in the league in the Houston Texans. And I just feel like some of those issues they have up front with their offensive tackles, with their pass protection, I think those things show up in a game like this where the Texans can take it to them.

9:56Diante Lee:What's your feel? What's your sense on this game here? Again, it comes back to like reliable units, right? If we were talking basketball, we will be talking about, you know, who's your starting five? Who's your top three guys in your rotation? And right now, Houston, I think, just has an advantage there with Will Anderson, Daniil Hunter, and Derek Stingley, right? And I think that for all that Los Angeles has been able to do, and a lot of this really has just been what Justin Herbert's been able to do with this offense to mitigate its problems, this is the one style of defense that I think is best built to make sure that every one of Los Angeles' weaknesses are on the front page of every single snap, right?

10:31We're going to feel their losses on the offensive line every single snap if Houston is playing to its identity. We're going to feel that lack of a guy that can beat one-on-one coverage no matter how or how big or how fast the corner across from him is. They don't have that. I think that Houston is very good and very adept at making you feel that lack of number one receiver if you don't have it. And then on the other end for me, I think when it comes down to trust, I do trust where Houston is going offensively. offensively last week like you said kind of an aberration maybe not the sexiest not the sexiest in the offensive line I think is always going to be on that brink of okay when they can hold up CJ Stroud looks like 2023 CJ Stroud when he doesn't like when the offensive line can't then this offense at least the passing game really falls apart I do think it's going to be a tenuous kind of back and forth game I think this is going to be one of those 17 16 right 20 to 17 types of games, right?

11:28You know, whoever has the ball last, maybe gets a game-winning field goal off in this game. But I do think, I just trust that Houston can force a turnover or get a key fourth down stop or turn a red zone trip into a field goal instead of a touchdown. And that ends up being the deciding factor.

11:42Diante Lee:I think it's really hard. The reason I was going, I feel like we're coming out of this game with one of two storylines. I settled on the one, the Chargers whole line can't hold up, you know, against the Texans defense. And that's where I settled on. but it very much could be the other side. See, like we could be saying this, we're going to be talking about one of these offenses and that Texans offense. I just don't know. It's like it, it's, you know, depending on the way the wind blows, how I feel about it. One week or one month, even they've had good stretches where I go, I think they figured things out.

12:12Diante Lee:And then they have a game like last week against what had been a lifeless Raiders defense, a one, two, three Cancun team. If I ever saw one the week before against the Eagles, and the Texans offense looked like that group we watched in the first three weeks of the season. Or I remember when we were in LA for the Ringer get-together and they're playing in primetime. And I go, what? This offense? They can't even complete a pass. It feels like a miracle when they complete a pass. And so I don't know what to really take away from this Texans offense. If you look at the season-long statistics, they're 26th in EPA per drive.

12:49Diante Lee:They're 28th in success rate. Their success rate stinks. Their run game's horrible. They got the second worst run game in the NFL. And so I'm looking at it going, I know they've had stretches. I was thinking maybe they've turned the corner, but the numbers kind of tell me a different story. And a game like last week tells me, slow down a little bit. Like maybe they haven't totally found something. I'm with you, right? Like it is tenuous. This is a very tenuous team. And it's easy to kind of forget that when you look at the winning streak that they're on, right? Because they've been so hot. And then you get the primetime game against Josh Allen, right?

13:22and then you get to beat up on Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football. And people see that and they're like, okay, they score enough points to beat these quarterbacks that we very clearly see as Super Bowl-level, Super Bowl-winning-level quarterbacks, MVP-level quarterbacks, everything must be fine. And then last week happens, and it's just a great reminder that this offense is not humming, right? It's functional. I think it's just viable enough, especially when you combine it with what they can do on defense, for you to feel like, okay, in a one-game sample, they can beat anybody, right?

13:50Derek Stingley can get a pick six like he got last week. You can get tip passes. You can get a seven, eight sack game like they had against Josh Allen on Thursday night about a month or so ago. All those things are in play. The issue is just like the moment that their protection breaks down. What they don't have is a Justin Herbert. I like CJ Stroud. He's not Justin Herbert in the sense that he's not just going to be shaking off these 260-pound edge rushers play after play, getting the ball out underneath or being able to extend and all of those types of things. So I do think it might be a little bit more of a war of attrition, right?

14:21It's not going to be Jacksonville versus Denver and Denver versus Green Bay in each of the last two weeks where you get these great offensive games back and forth. This one's going to be a slog. And funnily, because it can go either way, I actually am kind of nervous that we're going to leave this game not feeling like we've learned anything about how viable either of these two teams are as actual AFC contenders, right? I think this is just going to be two defenses bashing in their opposing offenses, right? And you just get it's a field goal game. and maybe that ends up being what decides it. We don't necessarily feel like we know exactly what to expect of these teams come January.

14:55Diante Lee:Yeah, very evenly matched. I think it's a one and a half point line. I think the Chargers are favored, but this is as close to a toss-up game as you can really find. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We got two more games to get to. This episode is brought to you by WeatherTech. Everyone knows winter is the MVP in making a mess. You don't need WeatherTech floor liners in the summer unless you hit the beach or go camping. then you'd want a cargo liner or a road trip goes sideways, ketchup goes rogue, ice cream drips. Yeah, you'd be pretty happy about those WeatherTech seat protectors.

15:27So just to be clear as the mud, you're inevitably going to step into the summer. You don't need WeatherTech unless you plan on doing summer. Visit weathertech.com today. Let's talk about a condition many people haven't heard of. And it turns out it's more common than you'd think. Peyronie's disease, or PD for short. PD can happen when scar tissue builds up under the skin of the penis. This can cause a curve or the bump during an erection and, for some men, lead to pain during intimacy and may impact mental health. It may also lead to anger and frustration, depression, lower self-esteem, and even withdrawal from sexual activity and physical intimacy.

16:06Because of this, some men could feel embarrassed or reluctant to talk about PD. The actual cause of PD isn't always known. In some cases, it may be linked to a minor injury or repeated injuries during sex or other physical activity. The good news is PD is treatable. If you notice a curve with a bump, a trusted urology specialist can help diagnose it and walk you through your options, including non-surgical treatment. To learn more about Peyronie's disease, visit TalkAboutPD.com.

16:36Diante Lee:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. So, Deontay, I'm going to go again back to back because I've got the other Saturday game. Ravens-Packers. What's at stake here? Ravens are pretty much out of it. But if they win this game and the Steelers lose to the Browns, which not likely, but Steelers are only three and a half point favorites. It could happen. I mean, you know, Steelers aren't a juggernaut. If those two things happen, it would set up a week 18 for the division Ravens-Steelers. So again, not likely, but possible for the Ravens. And then the Packers, only way they don't get in is if they lose their last two games, this one, and to the Vikings in week 18 and the Lions win their last two games.

17:18Diante Lee:So my headline here, Deontay, I feel like we've been circling around this one for maybe a year, maybe two years. Here's what I got. End of an era, question mark. Harbaugh's seat gets hotter as Ravens are officially eliminated. So this is not just podcast fodder. I mean, if you read the coverage in Baltimore, Jeff Zrebeck of The Athletic does a fantastic job. John Harbaugh was, I don't know if bombarded is the right word, but it wasn't just one throwaway. He's answering a lot of questions this week about, have you talked to owner Steve Bishotti? How do you feel about your job security? X, Y, and Z.

17:58Diante Lee:And it's just like, this stuff starts mounting up more and more where you look at it and you go, this has just been a bummer of a season. Lamar Jackson, even when he's been healthy, they've gone six and six in his 12 starts. John Harbaugh has been there 18 years. He's been an excellent coach. But at some point, you just wonder, is this the point where there's going to be a change? And so I think it's a very interesting time for this Ravens franchise. Their backs are against the wall. Who knows if Lamar Jackson's playing in this game? He's got the back injury. Harbaugh's getting these questions.

18:34Diante Lee:And suddenly this team, that they were, what, second in Super Bowl odds going into the season, something like that. Now, all of a sudden, they could potentially be looking at a coaching change. So where are you with kind of the state of this Ravens team and just how you expect this to unfold in the next couple of weeks here? I mean, as far as the headline, you and I are in total alignment on that, right? Like, and I was, I have my questions about what John Harbaugh's job security would have been last year. And then they kind of rallied just enough, right? And they looked really good coming down the stretch of the season.

19:06And, you know, you can kind of dismiss what happened in that playoff game against Buffalo is cold weather, bad turnover luck. You get a drop pass at the end zone in the end zone that might have given you an opportunity to go to overtime and win that football game. OK, all that set to the side. This year, I think, has painted it much more clearly that Lamar Jackson has kind of just been covering the asses of everybody in this organization basically since 2019. team and the moment that his play has slipped as a result of injury, seems like there's a little bit of a lack of confidence. He seems a little bit out of rhythm in the pocket and as a scrambler, all of a sudden, all these flaws feel unavoidable now, right?

19:44Like the fact that they have not found the defensive identity in the two years post Mike McDonald is a big issue. And it's not for lack of trying. They brought in veterans, right? You have Chuck Bogano helping out Zach Orr, right? As a consultant and now DB's coach, somebody who's been a longtime coordinator and knows defense and is comfortable in the environment that Baltimore tried to posture defensively and you still don't have anything there, I think that Todd Munkin has been a great step forward from Grant Roman in terms of developing the passing game. But then you land yourself in situations where you never want to be as a head coach, right?

20:15And it's having to answer something that's unanswerable. And you can't give anybody an acceptable answer for why Derrick Henry doesn't touch the ball for the wide majority of the fourth quarter of that game on a Sunday night. They were calling it out during the broadcast.

20:30Diante Lee:I mean, when it's happening in real time and you saw the way he's running it and he's on the sideline with a jacket on, you're going, what is happening here? What is going on? You know, if it's week nine and you're just like a five and four team and your starting star running back doesn't touch the ball, you can just be like, hey, man, rotation, long season. In hindsight, we could have got him the ball more, but we'll make sure we have that fixed. Guys, your football lives are on the line here. Your best running back can't be on the sideline. There is no rotation anymore. This is win or we're done, and they are effectively out of the playoff race, right?

21:05Even if we were to get to that Week 18 scenario that you laid out, do you have any trust, based on the way that these two teams have played, that Baltimore is going to be the one to outlast them? I don't, unless Lamar Jackson was playing his A-plus game, and we just haven't seen it since he's come back from his hamstring injury, and he's going to be battling whatever happened with his back, right, and kind of taking a knee in the liver area. So, you know, he's probably not going to be feeling his greatest coming into this game even though he's going to be recovering. It's entirely possible, especially if Jordan Love is there and 100 % playing at his best level, that Green Bay can kind of run away with this game.

21:42I just don't know if Baltimore's defense can stand up against how vertical Green Bay is offensively, how aggressive they are offensively. And again, it's just going to take Lamar Jackson having to be a hero. And this year, it has just not been very heroic from him under center in the run game either. And I just don't have much trust right now on what's going on in Baltimore.

22:02Diante Lee:Trust is such a great word for this matchup because the Ravens have not been a trustworthy team all season long. And I absolutely trust the Packers more. You know, they lose that game last week, but I was thinking about this, Deontay. If the Bears don't recover that onside kick, think about it. And if Jordan Love doesn't leave the game. Yeah, but even... probably not even in that scenario. Even if he does leave the game and the, and the bears don't recover that onside kick, that's the only thing we change. Think about the narratives this week, the bounce of the ball there and Romeo Dobbs not being able to catch it.