Predicting the Week 18 NFL Headlines

0:00Diante Lee:For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections and liver problems may occur.

0:39Diante Lee:Before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or if you need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit Tremfieradio.com.

1:22South America with colorful and crunchy Peruvian potato chips. Then straight to Mexico for dessert. You can pick up a Tres Leches family pack cake for only$10 every Friday. All aboard, save on regional flavors at Whole Foods Market.

1:45Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are predicting headlines for three Week 18 matchups, the three big ones. Bucks-Panthers on Saturday afternoon, Seahawks 49ers on Saturday night, and Ravens-Steelers on Sunday night. My guest today is the Ringers, Deontay Lee. We will predict what we think is going to happen in those games and break down the matchups. All right, take a break. Come back with Deontay. The Ringer NFL Show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play.

2:26Diante Lee:Plus, don't miss out on the NFL playoffs all month long. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

3:05Diante Lee:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with my friend Deontay Lee. We are predicting headlines as we do for the biggest Week 18 matchups. Deontay, let's start with the Panthers at the Bucs here. Now, let me give you the scenarios real quick. So if the Panthers beat the Bucs, they're in. They're also in if the Falcons beat the Saints. I can explain that in a minute. But yes, they can sort of back their way into a playoff spot. And for the Bucs to get in, they got to win this game and they need the Falcons to lose to the Saints. What is your headline in this NFC South that we've been kind of trying to avoid, you know, talking about?

3:47Diante Lee:It's been very lackluster, but here we are. Now's the time. What do you think happens in this game? I think that the headline is ahead of schedule, Carolina beats Tampa Bay, seals their playoff, punches their playoff ticket. That's where I'm at with it. Okay. You know, I mean, you know this in the conversation that we've had over the last two years. I'm big on trend lines, right? I always want to know, how have you been over the last month? That's always what I'm looking at. And if you're just looking at Tampa Bay over the last month of the season, they've just cratered in so many different areas.

4:18It definitely looks like, and this was happening, I would say around the mid-season mark as well. You can tell that the injuries up front on their offensive line, the in and out availabilities of their receivers has definitely knocked off their rhythm. I would say really what's central at this is Baker Mayfield is just not playing at the same level right now that he was playing at earlier in the year. you're seeing more mistakes under pressure. You're seeing him create more pressure for himself. You're seeing more poorly timed passes into these closing windows. And then on the other side of the ball, and I think that this has just been a story of top bulls this time as a head coach, you're just seeing a defense that it feels like more offenses just have figured out.

4:55Can he get on a heater and blitz you and create a lot of problems for your quarterback? Of course, right? But there's a feast or famine kind of nature to the way that Tampa Bay's been playing all season. Some of that is just kind of in-depth to the way that they play, the way that they build their roster. And right now they're just on the losing end of that. And I think with the way that Carolina plays, not turning the ball over, trying to control possessions and minimize possessions, the success that they've had on fourth down, the success they've had with getting scoring drives when they get in the red zone, all of those are the margins that allow you to beat a team like Tampa Bay that can go for 40 points, but just as easily give up 40, right?

5:29I think that because Carolina kind of lives on a more even plane, I would say on a week by week basis, I think I just trust them more going into this game.

5:38Diante Lee:It's like Carolina against a really good team. You kind of don't trust them at all. I know they beat the Rams earlier this season, but I feel like most of the time there's a ceiling where it's like, you know, you saw it last week against Seattle. It's just like, they're helpless. They have no chance against this team, even though the Seahawks weren't even really playing that well. But against a team like the Bucs, you're right. They just haven't been a good team. They've lost seven of eight. You work around, you know, high school students. Would they call this a mid-off, Deontay? Am I using that right?

6:06Diante Lee:Okay. Definitely a mid-off. All right. This is a mid-off. Bucks are 20th in DVOA. I mean, that might even be generous, honestly. Panthers are 24th in DVOA. Like, these are not, they're a little further away from even a mid-off here. Sorry, listeners. I won't say that. I won't say that again. That'll be the last time you'll hear it from me. But I think that's why when you look at this game, it's just so hard to predict because you don't trust either team. You wish, I like in these games when you can be like, well, at least I trust this unit. You know, sometimes it's not a great, but you don't even have that here.

6:36Diante Lee:It's like run defense, pass defense, pass offense, runoff. Any metric you want to look at, it's going to be middle of the pack or below average here. So, yeah, I don't hate your pick there of a Panthers win. You know me. I like to root for chaos. And week 18 chaos, I mean, that's one of my favorites. So here's what I got. Falcons win since Panthers to the playoff. So here's how this works. Here's my ideal scenario. Saturday, this game, Saturday afternoon, it's just bad. It's sloppy. Everyone's laughing. People are making jokes on social media. It's like, I can't believe one of these teams are going to be in the playoffs.

7:15Diante Lee:Bucs end up winning the game. It's nothing where you're like, oh, they're back and they're dangerous. It's like a 23-20 game. 1917. Yeah, lots of turnovers, a muffed punt, something like that. But then the Panthers aren't out of it because remember, this game's on Saturday. So in this scenario, both teams go home. Sunday, they have to watch. They're forced to watch the Falcons against the Saints. And the Falcons are going to win that game against the Saints. This is their destiny to just win these games that don't matter. And now it's like, oh, yeah, remember B. John Robinson? It's incredible.

7:53Diante Lee:Yeah, well, why haven't they supported this? Why are they in the position they're in? Why aren't they actually playing for a playoff spot? So this is their destiny, a three-way tie. That's the reason why the Panthers would be in. So a two-way tie, Bucs win the tiebreaker. But a three-way tie, the Panthers actually win the tiebreaker. So they go home, they watch the Falcons beat the Saints, and now all of a sudden, in the most hilarious NFC South plot twist imaginable, the Panthers, even with losing their last game, back their way into a playoff spot and host a playoff game on wildcard weekend.

8:28Diante Lee:That's my dream. Night game is like the opposite. These are two teams that have looked really good. Seahawks, 49ers, 49ers are underdogs. As of this recording, one and a half point underdogs at home here. We know the scenarios. Winner gets the one seed. Huge advantage. You get the bye. You get home playoff games throughout. If the Seahawks lose Deontay, they can't fall further than the five seed. So either they're the one seed or they're going to whoever wins the NFC South in the first round of the playoffs there. If the 49ers lose, they could fall further. They could be the six seed and they could have to go to Carroll.

9:08Diante Lee:If they're the five seed, it's Carolina or Tampa. If it's the six seed, they're going to Philadelphia or Chicago. So they have more scenarios to look at here. What is your headline for Seahawks 49ers, which should be a really fun game? God, I don't, this is just so fascinating. It's hard, this is hard, yeah. The way I think this game is going to play out is maybe not reflective of how I feel about these two teams in general, but I think that my headline is unreal. San Francisco clinches NFC's number one seed. Going with the Niners. I think when you just watch the way the San Francisco has been playing offensively, we talked a little bit about it last week, but this might be Kyle Shanahan's best coaching job.

9:47When you look at what he's drawing out of this offensive line, what he's drawing out of this receiver's room, what he's got out of Brock Purdy now that it seems like his foot is healthy again and he's able to be mobile and extend and really drive the ball. I mean, it is machine-like right now. Now, have they played against the greatest of defenses every week? No, I would say that Sunday night was probably not reflective of what we're going to see this week against Seattle, right? The Bears offer very little resistance if they're not forcing turnovers and getting sacks. But I will say the efficiency, right?

10:17They've been able to kind of toggle between, okay, Brock, we need you to get the ball out quickly within 2.4 seconds underneath, go create yards after the catch with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. They've done that really well. And as a credit to Purdy, now that he's healthy, he's been able to get back to the, okay, I can really kind of hang in the pocket. I can extend. I can try to push the ball downfield to Demarcus Robinson. When Ricky Pierce Hall is there, I can push the ball into those intermediate areas to him as well and allow them to go make those plays that get us the chunk gains that we need.

10:46I don't think that this means that there's anything wrong with Seattle's defense, because if I was just judging every defensive unit, I would say that this is the one that has the least weaknesses of any in the league. But I do think that Kyle Shanahan is just so good at being able to pluck away little by little and then find that chunk gain that they need I think this will be one of those 24-21 type of games, but you're going to see another machine-like performance from San Francisco's offense.

11:12Diante Lee:We're on the same page here, Deontay. I didn't think we would be. I thought you would go with sort of the defensive team, and I would be like, nope, I think the 49ers. But I've got Shanahan Stamps' coach of the year case as 49ers secure one seed. Now, I don't know if he's going to win it or not. I do think if they win, I think he's got a real chance at it. Yeah, like Ben Johnson, you know, Vrabel, Liam Cohen. All those have been great years. But you talk about your best edge rusher here in his ACL and your best defensive player overall breaking his leg before you even got to the midseason mark.

11:46And you've been able to draw 13 wins out of this unit. Your star receiver basically has not been part of the team since last winter. And you've still been able to be the top overall seed in your conference. It would be an incredible achievement, especially with how competitive the rest of the NFC West has been.

12:06Diante Lee:Yeah, I think you spelled it out well. And it's not like their defense has answered the call. Their defense hasn't been very good. Their offense has kind of had no margin for error. You mentioned machine-like earlier. Three straight games, 90th percentile or better EPA per drive. I don't care who you're playing. That type of just, all right, we have to be on it every single week. I mean, they throw a pick six on the first play last week, And then it's like they still had a 90th percentile game because the rest of the game, they just scored on pretty much every single possession. So that is hard to achieve.

12:39Diante Lee:Yeah, I like it's tough. I just I feel like they will find some answers. If you look at Shanahan versus McDonald the last couple of years, he hasn't lit him up. But it's been like I would give slight edge to Shanahan. Like he's produced above average offensive games, I think, in all three of those games. They haven't been elite. It's not like he's got the answer or anything like that. but they haven't gotten completely shut down, which I feel like is the key against Seattle there. So this game's interesting for so many reasons, but I feel like for Darnold, it's a can you flip the narrative game?

13:11Diante Lee:This is like a game you should be able to play well in. 49ers defense is bad. As I just mentioned, they're 26th in EPA per drive. You were in the same spot last year, which I forgot until Austin Gale reminded me earlier this week on the show. I'm like, oh yeah, this is the exact same spot Darnold was in last year. So you've got that aspect of it. And then for Shanahan, it's like, these are the spots where you can sort of earn your reputation. You know, it's not beating up on the Colts and the bears. It's you're going up against one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, maybe the best defense in the NFL for Purdy too.

13:44Diante Lee:You know, those improv plays and doing the Dougie against the bears. That's cute. But now the stakes are high. It's a little different now. And it's the Seahawks. And can you do it here? So I just feel like Shanahan, Purdy, but probably Darnold is number one, right? on the kind of what's the narrative coming out of this game. Let me ask you this. Fun subplot here with the Rams, Deontay, because let's say the 49ers lose this game. Now, the Rams play on Sunday against the Cardinals. And Sean McVay said after the Monday night loss, we're playing our starters. I kind of think he was in his feelings a little bit, and I don't know.

14:17Diante Lee:I want to see what that looks like later in the week. But from the Rams' perspective, if the 49ers lose, you know that if you win on Sunday, hey, you're the 5C. And that means going to Carolina or Tampa versus you could sit your starters, get the week of rest. But if you lose and you're the Rams, now all of a sudden you're going to Chicago or Philadelphia. Now, if you're saying, hey, to get to the Super Bowl, you're going to have to beat good teams. I get that aspect of it. But man, there is to me a big difference and anything can happen. We know weird stuff happens in the playoffs, but there's a big difference between going to Carolina slash Tampa and going to Philadelphia slash Chicago.

15:00Diante Lee:So if this scenario plays out where Niners lose Saturday and the Rams have to make that decision, what would you do? Or what do you think Sean McVay does on Sunday? If I'm Sean McVay, I totally understand how he felt after that game because you have to be frustrated, right? I think that they've been kind of white knuckling as every other team in the NFC West has because they've all been angling for either the one seed or the five seed to make sure that they're in the best position possible. And I think right now, coming off of what happened on Monday, the smart thing to do, in my opinion, is give your guys a week.

15:32Make sure that Matthew Stafford gets a week. You get your arm refreshed. Make sure Puka Nakua gets a week for all the beating that he takes. You get a week where there's no stress on Devontae Adams' status at all. Allow your offensive line to kind of get a week off. It's whatever, man. You honestly might be able to put your backups on the field against Arizona. I was just thinking that Garoppolo could actually beat the Cardinals,

15:52Diante Lee:as I was thinking about it. You might be able to run for 270 yards against a Cardinals defense and be able to go win the game with three rushing touchdowns, right? So I think that it's not necessarily, it's not a do or die scenario in the sense that like, oh, we know that Chicago and Philadelphia for certain are the best teams in the NFC. Can you lose to them? Yes. But I don't think that you should feel so uncomfortable with having to travel to play either of those teams if you're LA. I find them, you take the week, get fresh and then go try to win a Super Bowl, which I still think is very much within their range of outcomes right now.

16:24Diante Lee:You talked me into it. I think if you have Stafford and Puka Nakua healthy for the playoff run, take your shot. Like, I would rather have that. I'd much rather that than play Tampa Bay in the first round. All of a sudden, you're risking it. And yeah, Stafford tweaks his back. Or Nakua can only play one way. I think we know that. It's very entertaining, but he's not going to be cautious about anything. And yeah, to your point, I think there's still going to be favorites with Garoppolo in that game. So yeah, I think that's probably what the Rams do in that matchup. All right, let's take a break.

16:55Diante Lee:We come back Sunday nighter Ravens Steelers.

17:21possibilities. Xfinity. Imagine that. Select plans only. Restrictions apply. Powered by fiber. Connected to the premises by coaxial cable. Actual speeds vary. Protein is now at Starbucks, and it's never tasted so good. You can add protein cold foam to your favorite drink or try one of our new protein lattes or matcha. Try it today at Starbucks.

17:45Diante Lee:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. Ravens and Steelers. Steelers, three and a half point underdogs at home in this game. We don't know if Lamar Jackson's going to play. I don't know if we're going to know that until, honestly, Sunday morning. It feels like one of those, but we'll see how the rest of the week goes here. What's your headline, Deontay, for this one? It's Jaws of Life, Derrick Henry. I'll say in parentheses because we don't know his status yet. Lamar Jackson saved Baltimore's season. I think this is a Baltimore win. I think this is one of those John Harbaugh escapes after all the scrutiny over the last two weeks.

18:23I wasn't the first person to notice it, but it was very funny to me seeing John Harbaugh walk the sidelines with the play sheet when they were playing the Packers. I was like, oh, OK, clearly something. It seems to be landing, right? Like whatever. Where are we?

18:38Diante Lee:How many coaches are we at by week 18 are like, I'm going to be more involved. It feels like, you know, a quarter of the league that's happened to at this point. Hey, man, optics. Optics are everything at this point. Perception is reality at this point, especially if people are talking about your job security. But I do think, I think that they've landed upon enough over the last couple of weeks. I think that they've learned, I would like to believe that they have learned that their identity is just in getting into heavy personnel and mashing teams. All right, I've got a similar one. I don't feel confident at all about it, but I've got Raven's claw all the way back to win division and host wildcard games.

19:16Diante Lee:So the winner of this game, obviously, is the four seed. They'll host Houston, Buffalo, the Chargers, the Jaguars, the losers out here. I think you nailed the analysis. You know, I don't know what that Steelers offense. I have no confidence that they're going to look good with DK Metcalf, without DK Metcalf, after what we watched last week at the same time. It's like, I don't trust the Ravens. We've talked all season about the Ravens. There's no reason to trust them. They're always prone to blow a coverage. they're prone to miss a tackle. It might not take a lot. Yeah, special teams. This could be a Tomlin special where all of a sudden Boswell's nailing 54 yarders and they're getting a play on special teams.

19:51Diante Lee:This game is destined to be decided by like a weird call or a muffed punt. Oh, this is 100 % pass interference that gains an offense 55 yards because Aaron Rodgers took a deep shot, right? This is a face mask on third and 21 that keeps the drive alive that ends up deciding the game. I'm with you 100 % on that. But here's the thing. I don't know that the game is that interesting. I don't think either of these teams is making a playoff run in the AFC. But the most interesting aspect of this game is what happens to the team that loses. And I've been waiting to get your opinion on this. Because you got the Harbaugh stuff.

20:27Diante Lee:You got the Tomlin stuff. You got Rodgers. He only signed a one-year deal. Those things are all interesting. However, friend and former colleague in the Athletic, Mike Sandow, had a piece this week. And here's the headline. The Ravens season is riding on week 18. Lamar Jackson's future could be too. I'm like, all right, you got me. I'm clicking into that every single time. Then I was looking around. Mike Florio, pro football talk, has brought this up as well. The idea is that this relationship between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens is strained. The Baltimore Sun had an article about this. And at the very least, there's some gossipy, rumory type whispers in league circles about the idea that the Ravens could move on from Lamar Jackson after this season.

21:18Diante Lee:Sando had a prominent agent telling him the biggest story of the offseason is going to be Lamar. This is going to be crazy. Again, there was that Baltimore Sun article. They're talking about Lamar's conditioning and his diet and sleeping in meetings and staying up late playing video games. and you go, where is this? This is interesting to be coming out at this point in the season. So my question to you, is this something? Is this foreshadowing legit where this could actually become a story in the off season? Or are you calling, no, this is nothing. I don't buy any of it. Where are you with some of these whispers that are coming out right now?