Preseason Takeaways and Bold Predictions That We're Chewing On!

24:31Austin Gayle:Austin, And here's where if I was presenting to Tom Brady, I'd be like, Tom, listen, good to see you. First of all, thanks for joining us in Vegas here, wherever you were running the team from earlier in the week. That was fun too. But Tom, I like your plan with the quarterbacks, but you know what? I kind of think with Mendoza, maybe we don't need to do that because did you watch him in that preseason game? His head wasn't spinning. He looked good. He was firing in breakers, tight windows, outbreakers. He was making a bunch of different types of throws. Did you see that? touchdown pass he made.

25:02Austin Gayle:He was protecting our receiver in the end zone. And Tom, this guy's got great intangibles. He's showing up earlier than everyone in the morning. He's leaving late. He's all about football. His teammates love him. So we don't have to worry about him the way we would a normal quarterback. And here's the thing, Tom, from a team perspective, one of our analytics guys was doing the research. The average rookie quarterback generally performs like, let's say, the 26th best starter in the NFL. And you know Cousins, who we're going to start here? Last year, he was like the 25th best quarterback in the NFL statistically.

25:36Austin Gayle:So if we're just convinced that Mendoza can give us average start quarterback play for a rookie, it's probably going to be around the same level as Cousins. Plus he's getting all those raps. I don't think he's going to develop bad habits. What do you think? Maybe we just throw him in there week six, week seven. What do you think, Austin? Did I convince you? I think I'd laugh you out the room and fire you. What? That's crazy. You're so Brady-pilled here. No, listen. You came to me and said, you watch more preseason. I don't think anyone can have takeaways from preseason. Did you say that? And so then your pitch would be to go to Brady and say, fucking Mendoza looked good in one preseason game against backups.

26:14And you're like, well, Brady looks good. Oh, you've seen the practices. You've seen the practices. Listen, I have a conspiracy theory. Wait, wait. Then you throw on top of that. that like well technically brady the 26th the rookie plays 26th and and mendoza if he could get to 24th and take 40 sacks and play like shit and everyone have a takeaway and he's like you just told me their own line's gonna be good but but maybe it's not and then they're photoshopping michael cera under fernando mendoza after primetime games and like yeah like i said maybe he's wired differently your friends aren't your teammates aren't your family isn't he's still gonna see it yeah he's only on linkedin still everyone else in the room could see it he throws three picks in an Island game, all of a sudden he's J.J.

26:51McCarthy in that one meme. Those takes aren't worth it because these games this year don't matter. And that's what Brady understands. It doesn't make sense to aim for average quarterback play and maybe make the playoffs in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and fucking Sean Payton. This isn't the year. You need time. You are going to trade Crosby in the offseason and completely reset. Take your time, build this right, and don't try to aim for the analytics or overreact to this one preseason game. Play your game. Trust your plan. There's no reason to react.

27:21Austin Gayle:Okay, but reps do matter. I think even Brady would agree the way you get better the most is to play in games and learn from what that's like. Well, then you should go watch his TED Talk because he says you probably shouldn't play as a rookie until you understand the offense completely. Now, if you tell me, maybe Fernando Mendoza, yeah, maybe he does. Like, if you start to see reports that, like, Fernando's ready, he understands the offense better than Kirk, let's start seeing some reps, let's go. But if, like, are we seeing some hints of that, Austin? We are, but it's one game. We're one game in.

27:47Austin Gayle:No, but I'm looking at some of the comments Kubiak has made recently. I had the conspiracy theory that he threw Max Crosby and Kirk Cousins. He suspended them for the practice so he could have Mendoza get some first-team reps there. I think he also did that because I feel like he bought every player on the Seahawks roster a Bible last year. He's a guy that I feel like has a standard. He made the Raiders earn their shield in training camp. He's got a traditional high school Chuck's vibe about him. It's why I think him and Mendoza are going to really work together along with cringy-ass Brady, but just do it on our time.

28:23We do not have to rush anybody in. We're not playing this game for anyone else. The Raiders have been at the bottom of the NFL for as long as I can remember. Let's take our time.

28:31Austin Gayle:All right, so you know the infrastructure of this team, the power dynamics, the management setup better than anybody I know. let's say it's week seven and they're two and five and cousins is just falling off a cliff he looks like one of the worst quarterbacks in the nfl and because it does matter to teammates who's you know whether you're actually playing the guy who gives you the best chance to win and mendoza's crushing it in practice and he just seems he seems like he knows the playbook inside and out he's you know in the meetings he's pointing out stuff that that they're just they've never seen from a rookie before.

29:06Austin Gayle:And Kubiak goes to Brady and has that conversation. Tom, I know what you said. I'm with you. We're on the same page here, but I do think we need to reevaluate this. Does Brady just have the final say on everything and Kubiak's not even thinking of having that conversation? Or how does that conversation come? I'd be absolutely shocked if Brady's opinion is not had on when Fernando plays. I think his opinion can change, but I don't think it's going to change based on how good Fernando plays in practice or in preseason if Kirk is even just serviceable and giving us an opportunity to evaluate the other players on the roster.

29:41Kirk led a touchdown drive in that game. Obviously, Fernando looked good too. It's the Kubiak offense that's really speaking. But if Kirk is like what you said, 22nd in that range and the Raiders aren't losing games because of the offense or unable to evaluate offensive skill players because of the offense, but it's the defense that has questions in the secondary. Crosby's kind of by himself along the D-line. And they brought in new linebackers, but it's a lot of newness, new defensive coordinator. I think that they could be losing games because of the defense, but the offense still looks okay, even if it's not the ceiling we expect.

30:11I think what's really going to determine if Brady shifts off this plan or even Kubiak shifts off this plan is if Kirk completely bottoms out, which is very much in play, or gets hurt. That, I think, is going to be the hard, like, okay, duh, we got to play Mendoza. But if Kirk is serviceable, like I'm talking Alex Smith, the year that the Chiefs traded up for Patrick Mahomes serviceable, I don't see the reason for the Raiders to rush him in. Like the Chiefs, yeah, didn't draft Mahomes first overall, but they traded up in the first round to go get him and they still stayed calm. And now Alex Smith was a different caliber quarterback than Kirk is now, but I think they see it as a similar situation.

30:44Austin Gayle:All right. Last Raiders question before we move on. Max Crosby, is he on this team after the in-season trade deadline? Really depends on the start, obviously. I think that if they start out terrible, I think they're going to look to move him again and field calls and be okay with not getting two firsts. As they should, I think. As they should, right? And I think they're going to be okay with not getting two firsts because all of the capital is going to be in 2027. And if we know anything already about this 2027 class, it's that good non-quarterbacks are going to fall in the first round because there's so many quarterbacks that are expected to kind of dominate those first 10 picks.

31:18Arch Manning, Lenore Sellers, Dante Moore, Mestemaker, CJ Carr. we could probably keep going down the list. Sam Levitt, like there's so many quarterbacks that are going to be in people's draft guides starting in October that teams are fawning over. And then the next thing you know, good offensive tackle slips. Colin Simmons from Texas slips. Goosby, give me Goosby. Give me Jeremiah Smith. I'm already thinking 2027, baby. Look out, look out.

31:39Austin Gayle:Okay, all right, okay. So Austin says maybe they trade Max Crosby. All right, what's the next take? That was lively. We might have to do, maybe we do like a social only Sheil and Austin yell at each other about the Raiders weekly. said, I mean, that could do numbers, I think. Okay. All right, Austin, what's the next takeaway from preseason? I'm gobbling up the garbage time Browns. I'm calling them the garbage time Browns this year for multiple reasons. One, the first is we are not going to, I think, market correct responsibly to how bad the Browns' defense is going to be compared to the way they've been over the last five years.

32:12And it's not because just Miles Garrett and they added Jared Burris. I think that mitigates some of it. It's that Jim Schwartz, the defensive coordinator, literally quit on the team. Like, literally quit on the team. Like, he wanted to be the head coach. They went with Monken. Schwartz leaves. And you lose Devin Bush. And you lose Myles Garrett. And Malik Collins is still recovering off the pup. And his backup has been dealing with injuries in August. Like, you start to stack this stuff up, there's so much newness. New defensive coordinator. No Myles Garrett. Monken, in his first year coaching, by the way, older guy, first year coaching, whose focus probably is going to be 100 % on the offense because he's going to look himself in the mirror as a 60-plus-year-old man and say, my defense is not getting better without Jim Schwartz and Myles Garrett.

32:51So I think the Browns are going to be shit on defense. And offensively, they're going to be in this position. We really haven't seen them where they have so much skill player talent. Quichon Judkins, Harold Fannin, Denzel Boston, Casey Concepcion, even Jerry Judy. Like they have Dylan Sampson looked good in the preseason that if they're in these games, they're like they're down 30, like they weren't all these past years. Even if Watson and Shadur look as bad as they did in that preseason game, which I would say is middling to bad, I still think that this offense is going to be very fantasy relevant.

33:20And honestly, like I could see them maybe finding their stride for a couple games and shocking some people because so many people are just all the way out on the Browns for obvious reasons. The quarterback room is the most disgusting in the league. And, you know, the defense, I think, is going to get significantly worse. But I think the stock is so low that I'm just going to gobble it up right now. And like I'm looking at Browns offensive skill players in fantasy, and I'm thinking about betting them in stretches where I've like there's both defenses are bad. And I think the offense can step up.

33:46Austin Gayle:just because Solak had his viral tweet about Denzel Boston, this and that. Everybody gets all excited. All right, Solak, we saw that. Settle down. Okay, you know, it could be great. I understand Browns fans if you're excited about the rookie class. They do have some fun young players. I'm with you, Austin, about the defense. I think there's some thought that their defense is going to be pretty good this year. And I like Carson Schwestinger and I like Jared Verst, but I look around and I'm like, wait, who are the other really good players on this defense? And I'm with you on Jim Schwartz. I feel like he's maybe the most underrated defensive coordinator of like the last 25 years.

34:19Austin Gayle:It just feels like he has a strong, strong track record of being able to coach up defenses. And you have that and you have losing Myles Jarrett that I don't think their defense is going to be very good. I just, my only question with the fantasy stuff is just like, are the quarterbacks going to be able to reach a level where those other guys are relevant? Because they just could have, you know, they just could have the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. That's not going to be shocking to anybody. Probably. I think that's definitely in play, but I think that's priced in. Like, is there a single random casual fan that thinks the Browns quarterback room is good?

34:55Like, I think people would rank it 32nd across the board. That's the time to buy because I watched Dylan Sampson with some real scoot take a screen like 40 plus yards. And like, I see, I know Harold Fannin's a tackle breaker who dropped a third down that could have extended a drive in the beginning. I know, you know, they had Deshaun, you know how the Browns feel about Deshaun Watson? They had him playing behind the backup Browns offensive line. In the first drive, he was behind the starters, which are essentially five brand new starters. Tevin Jenkins is coming back, but they completely rehauled the four other starters.

35:23And then they kept playing Watson behind the guys who play behind those guys. And then you're like, oh man, he's under pressure all the time. He kind of looks like shit. And then there was that fourth and one where he has the sack and obviously it looks bad, but like, oh my gosh, he was playing with five like legit brand new starters on the offensive line, backups to their starters, and didn't look that great. Neither did Shadur. Monken only cares about the offense and he has so much skill player talent and a quarterback that like everyone is already all the way out on I think that's just how do you fade the Browns at this point?

35:51Is there even a way to like fade the Browns? I don't even see how it's possible. I do like Monken too as like an offensive coach.

35:57Austin Gayle:And like he's coaching for his job, right? Monken will get fucking thrown out the room if the offense looks like shit and they think it's his fault. He's coaching for his job and a big part of his job is making this quarterback room chicken shit into chicken salad And I have more confidence in him doing that than completely buying the side that thinks it's going to be the worst offense in the NFL, hands down. My favorite stat about the Browns quarterback room, Austin, is that the last two years, there's been 78 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Among that sample, Shador Sanders last year ranked 77th, and Deshaun Watson 2024 ranked 78th.

36:33Austin Gayle:The worst two quarterback seasons of the last two years are competing for the starting job. And even with Watson, I'm sensing some people wondering, hey, maybe I'll be a little optimistic. Watson's played 19 games in the last five seasons. Even if he comes out... And he looks like it. Yeah, even if he comes out and you're like, oh, he looks a little better the first two, three weeks. It's very unlikely that that's going to last. But yeah, you are right about the skill group. I am excited at least to watch those guys, two who kind of proved themselves last year and then the rookies who are coming in.

37:04Austin Gayle:this year. All right, Austin, number four, what do you got? What's the fourth takeaway from preseason? This is kind of a couched take because I think there are harder takes to have. I mean, you could be a bit more aggressive here. I think John Harbaugh's Giants could suck out of the gate. Just like not be good. I think you could take out out of the gate would be a stronger take. That might be my take. Yeah. That's fine. Maybe that is that take. I do think they're getting in, you know, I do think that like they have talent and maybe there's a path here, but they open the season on Sunday night football at home against Dallas.

37:40And then they, that's a primetime game, island game. And then week two, week two, they're going to SoFi, cross coast, Monday night football against the Rams. That's their first two games to start the season. Those are two island spots against probable playoff teams. Some people have Dallas winning the NFC. The Rams are literally the Super Bowl favorites. And I think we're going to come out of those 0-2 possibly, and the blame bus is going to get gross. It's going to be Roman. It's going to be Greg Roman. It's going to be Nagy. They're going to get Callahan mixed in. They might get Tyrone Tracy's ass.

38:12The offensive line could go at blame. Jackson Dart will still be trying to understand what's happening at that time, but Scadabo too. The blame bus is going to be gassed up, buddy. Gassed up by 0-2 if they start two island games where Dart ends up in the medical tent, which has happened in 43 % of his games, according to Scott Barrett, including the preseason. Or Scadabo doesn't look 100%, coming off a crazy broken leg. Or Malik Nabors, coming off an ACL, doesn't look 100%. Or the defense, with brand new defensive coordinators, doesn't look good, out of the gate. All three of the Giants starting cornerbacks are hurt.

38:45And the starting cornerbacks are Paulson Adabo, Drew Phillips, and, I'm forgetting the other corner because it's a no-name, but he's also out. They have three hurt corners. I just think the Giants could suck right out of the gate. And I think they could start 0-2, kind of be a lost season from there. We know only like 13 % of NFL teams make the playoffs after starting 0-2. And if the blame bus is already going around, it's not going to be a healthy work environment. I'll say that.

39:08Austin Gayle:So the big story from their preseason game, you mentioned, you know, Jackson Dart going to the Blue Medical 10. So Tyrone Tracy misses the blitz pickup. Jackson Dart gets rocked. So this wasn't one where, oh my God, Jackson Dart's being reckless. And no, he was standing in there. The guy was supposed to be picked up. He wasn't picked up. He gets rocked. He goes to the Blue Medical 10. And afterwards, he's upset. He's like, it's a head scratcher to me. It's puzzling. Why I keep getting sent to the blue medical tent. I think the athletics said that last year he got sent there five times and one time was a concussion.

39:41Austin Gayle:But like - And another time, Brian Dayball was in there too. Oh yeah, Brian Dayball, just like, oh man. That was just, that was unbelievable. It was like, get him out here. It's like, all right, his brain might be scrambled. Brian, do you mind if we do a couple of tests here? You know, he might have like a lot of damage from this. D 'Abel's like, I'm trying to save my job. I mean, that said a lot, I think, about Brian D 'Abel. But listen, I think there are plays that Jackson Dart makes that you totally see it. Even in this game, he comes back in. Now, it's not in structure. I don't know if he's ever going to get there in structure, but he makes a play.

40:13Austin Gayle:He's scrambling to his left. He throws a touchdown to Malachi Fields. Everyone's all excited. Let's say that I can assure you that Jackson Dart is going to be relatively healthy this season. what are fair expectations for how he actually performs? Are you bullish on his talent if he can stay healthy? Because if he can stay healthy, we can all agree that's a question. Are you bullish on his talent and his ability to perform if he can stay on the field? I feel as bullish as anyone on Tyler Shuck or Cam Ward, honestly. Like, hey, second-year quarterback, showed some things, brand-new offense. Shuck's not in that situation.

40:48He's getting that continuity with Moore. But I think for Dart, rookie quarterbacks, you see some positive things, but you need consistency, right? Because it's a position where if you get sent to the medical tent, half your games, it matters. If you make bonehead decisions, even on two, three, 4 % of your plays, you're losing football. Like you're losing football games. Like I think Dart, it's easy to say he has all the talent in the world. He's lightning quick, strong arm, and looks competent and like a leader out there, but you need to see it game to game. And part of the reason you haven't is because he keeps getting hurt.

41:19And he doesn't even understand why when like there isn't another quarterback in the league taking hits like him. He's the only one who's taking hits. They had to tell him to slide in practice. How am I getting hurt when I'm being told to slide in practice? That's how you're getting hurt, pal. You're getting hurt because you're being reckless. And Scadabo's a little reckless. His team feels a little reckless. And you get a little wet and reckless. You start 0-2 in two island games, and everyone's phone's buzzing with a Michael Cera meme on your face. It's going to be a little different. I don't think Harbaugh's going to be blaming himself.

41:47I don't. I think it's going to be other people.

41:49Austin Gayle:I mean, well, he does need to look in the mirror with the offensive coaching staff he hired. I mean, you mentioned that. Nagy Callahan. He is looking in the mirror with that, though. It's a scapegoat process. He did that on purpose. It's like, oh, the offense doesn't work. I might just fire all these guys that have been fired before. Might as well. There's one more shield in front of me. Joe Shane's still up there, probably going to toss. Again, John Harbaugh's not going to be to blame if things go south. And there are a lot of reasons, like real reasons, injury reasons, schedule reasons, youth reasons, newness reasons to expect this to kind of at least be like a stumble out of the gate versus what what it was billed as is like the Giants got the home run of the coaching you know carousel like they they got Harbaugh oh my god they got an adult in the room it sounds so much like the Pete Carroll thing in Vegas last year bigger difference is being you know Pete was a lot older and was forced to work with people he didn't know like Chip Kelly and like you know you don't want to force an old person to get to work with someone they don't know like it's just not gonna fly and like I think this is a little different in that Harbaugh is working with people he does know.

42:49But still, I think there are similarities in that we're just assuming this monster leap because Harbaugh is this professional, experienced, playoff caliber coach. When you ask Mallory Rubin, as big of a Ravens fan as I know, they're ready to see Harbaugh go. You even ask the owner, and a lot of fans Ravens for her. And it's like, okay, you're expecting this big improvement from a coach that the Ravens didn't even want. It's starting to add up, right? With a coaching staff that everyone hates? I don't know, man. And a lot of injuries, it's going to be a weird season. I think it's going to be a tough season, potentially.

43:22Austin Gayle:There are pockets of talent, certainly. You know, the O-line could be decent. Malik Nabors, Abdul Carter, Brian Burns. It's like, sometimes you look at the depth chart and you're like, I can kind of see it. But they traded away Dexter Lawrence, right? I know. I think he was such an important piece. He was such an important piece. But you throw out his talent like a leader. Like he was like the longest tenured giant, I believe when they, and they moved on from him like a thief in the night when Harbaugh was just ready to fucking go. Like just done. Like I'm gone. It's gone. And like the Giants.

43:50Austin Gayle:If you're going to trade a guy, of course, like top 10, get enough compensation. Yeah. But I want, I want to ask the Giants defense that's rostered this year, if they really are happy about that 10th overall pick, which I believe is Francis Marinoa, because they're missing sexy Dexie, who has not just been the reason their run defense has been up there, but also a really good pass rushing nose tackle and someone that has been on the team leading the huddle for fucking what? 10 years? It's a big change. Look at you. You're all smitten by Dexter Lawrence's leadership ability. I've been in that locker room, actually.

44:18That guy has legitimate gravity, dog. I think it's more gravity because he's the size of a planet, but the players huddle around that guy. He's the reason they knock.

44:30Austin Gayle:There you go. Austin, great job with the preseason takeaways. I feel like I'm up to speed. I know what matters. What didn't matter? Now, we didn't mention Jeremiah Love. Do you have anything to rant on with Jeremiah Love? having the high ankle sprain on his 14th freaking carry? Are you serious? You said it's a high ankle sprain? LaFlohawk said it was nothing. Oh, no, but now it's a high ankle sprain. Now it's a high ankle sprain. Interesting. So he tried to poo-poo the injury. When you go back and watch that play, by the way, it's a clear hip drop tackle, which you hate to see. But Jeremiah Love is not only getting his 14th touch of the first half of the first week of the preseason.

45:06Austin Gayle:That's grounds for firing, honestly. Grounds for firing. but also when you see him looking down at his ankle after a clear hip drop tackle where i'm like jumping up and down at my screen like holy shit he looks hurt he's looking down at his ankle lafleur's looking to the next play like he's calling the two-minute drill in the fucking super bowl and they end up calling a timeout because they need to swap line up it's like hey love whoa whoa whoa like they they're they're they're they call time out love gets pulled out we don't really hear about the injury the broadcast is not even talking about it because It's a home broadcast.

45:34I'm watching Kirk Morris and Rich Gannon talk about the Raiders. But then out of the gate, LaFleur is like, oh, it's an ankle. We'll see. And then like, and now it comes out. It's a high ankle, which is like the worst ankle injury you can get. And then you layer in. That's their first round pick. Their second round pick, Chase Besantis, on his 70th snap of the preseason, is now out for the season because he tore his knee. I think it was his knee. Then you have their third round pick, Carson Beck, who looked good in that Hall of Fame game, now out missing time with a rib injury. And their fourth round pick, Caleb Proctor, defensive tackle, missing the entire season with an injury.

46:02So all four of their first four picks in the rookie class are all hurt, including Jeremiah Love. After his 14th touch of the preseason, Besantis got 70 when he's competing to start. Make it make sense. Make it make sense. I can't. I can't.

46:14Austin Gayle:Horrible. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I'm going to hit Austin with some takes that I'm chewing on, and he's either going to talk me into them or talk me out of them. All right, we're back here on the Ringer NFL Show. All right, so here's the idea, Austin. It's almost prediction time, right? We're going to all go on the record in the next couple of weeks. Here's who's going to win the Super Bowl. Here's who the surprise team's going to be. Here's who's going to make the playoffs. I have three takes that I'm considering and all my little documents and spreadsheets over here, I'm like, I think I think these things, but I'm not totally sure.

46:46Austin Gayle:I'm going to present you with the cases and you're going to help me either push me over the top and say, Shield, go with that as your friend, as your trusted confidant. I want you to look good. I don't want you to get all takes exposed. You're going to be good with this one. Or you're going to say, Shield, don't do that. I'm telling you, you're going to regret this in December. I've got three of them. Are you ready? Yes. Okay. First one. The Minnesota Vikings are a playoff team. That is my first one. Austin, these vary in spiciness. I'm not telling you these are all the craziest, boldest predictions, but I don't think most people are picking the Vikings to make the playoffs.

47:21Austin Gayle:I think that I'm going to have them at 10-7 and a wildcard team. Here's the case. Kyler Murray, when you're watching him, feels like the most high-variance quarterback in the NFL. However, if you look at it statistically, he pretty much ends up in the same place after every season. He's ended up between 12th and 21st every single year. If you look at EPA for play, he's played football. So it's like he's most likely going to give them mediocre quarterback play. And I know we're not hanging banners for mediocre quarterback play, but when you look at what they had last year, they might hang a banner for mediocre quarterback play because they had bottom five quarterback play in the NFL with the guys they started last year.

48:01Austin Gayle:So on the offensive side of the ball, I think they can reach a level of competence and mediocrity. And on the defensive side of the ball, I'm just putting my faith in Brian Flores. I'm adding those things up, above average defense, average to above average offense. And I think they can get to 10 wins. And I feel like they're getting slept on in the NFC North, Austin, because they are plus 5 '10 to win the division. And I actually don't think there's a huge gap between them and some of these other teams. All right, where are you on this? I think it's something I can entertain for a second. But I think where I struggle is even if Kyler Murray, who I think is going to win the job and unless it gets hurt, will play over J.J.

48:45McCarthy every game, just based off of what we saw in the preseason, but also what we saw last year and knowing what Kyler Murray, what problems Kyler Murray can solve when the offense doesn't have an easy win versus JJ McCarthy can barely even hit the easy wins versus create outside of that. But the problem with Murray is even if it nets out to be like average or even slightly above starter average EPA, I still think the week-to-week experience with Kyler is so rollercoaster. It is. First half of the season, second half of the season, stuff we saw with the cliff, like Cliff Kingsbury falling off the cliff over the second half of the season.

49:16So I've been calling the Vikings. Heifetz kind of helped me, Danny Heifetz, the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, They'll help me kind of put this together, but I'm calling them the pump and dump Vikings in that I think that the Vikings are going to start the season pretty warm and you're going to see some of the stuff that you're seeing where, oh, Kyler is competent. Oh, the offensive line is kind of good. That is Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson. I thought Aaron Jones looked pretty spry in the preseason, just a couple of touches that he had. And then defensively, you have one of the best defensive play callers in the game.

49:44Like I think Brian Flores is that good and you're going to get these just easy, easy turnovers, short drives on the other side of the ball when you go against bad quarterbacks because Flores just chews them up, like we saw with Dart and the Giants even in that preseason game. So I like the Vikings a lot, like week to week, but I feel like the volatility with Murray and the injuries in the second half of the season and then also the volatility, even with the defense, right? I think he's the best week to week game play caller, but there are better offenses, better defenses that have seen the Flores stick before and good quarterbacks can still chew them up.

50:13Their secondary still isn't that good. So I don't know. You're telling me to chew on it

50:17Austin Gayle:or sleep on it a little more. I just don't think I'm rushing to place any season-long positive bet on the Vikings right now. I feel like there's still so many questions. Like, if you're bullish on Minnesota, bet them week one. Like, bet them week two. Look at their, you know, their spreads in that area. Or if you're, like, thinking this offense is just going to be better, maybe you're a fantasy buyer of Jefferson above value, Aaron Jones above value. But, I don't know, season-long bet on the fucking Vikings? I think my bullish take is that the Vikings fans are going to turn on Kevin O 'Connell at some point.

50:45in the same way that Dolphins fans like maybe needed to move on from Mike McDaniel, even if he is this, you know, arguably best offensive play caller in the game, because I think there is going to get to a point where I think Kevin O 'Connell did a really good job getting his name off of the Sam Darnold decision and to go with JJ. And that's why Quesi Adolfi Mensah doesn't have a job anymore. They're GM, but you go through this season and it doesn't look good at all with Murray. It doesn't look good again with McCarthy and they still have all these weapons and a good offensive line, it's like, okay, I guess we'll give Kevin O 'Connell another chance, but is Flores going to be there next year?

51:16I don't know. Don't you think they would be justified, Austin, to

51:19Austin Gayle:turn on? It would. It's interesting. There are coaches who, if you put them in this situation with this talent on offense, and you told them Brian Flores is their DC, I do believe that Shanahan, McVay, we could go through whoever you think the best coaches in the end. I do believe that those guys would be able to get this team to the playoffs. I do think, in a way, it's kind of a fun referendum on is KOC actually that guy? Because if you look at it, their offenses have never finished above 14th. I forget if it's DVOA or EPA per play. His best move has been hiring and being able to work with Brian Flores and staying out of his way.

51:53Austin Gayle:That's kind of carried him. Honestly, yeah. And then you want to give him credit for that Sam Darnold season. I mean, fuck, Kubiak took him the whole way. Right, they were better. Sam Darnold looked like garbage in big games against good defenses in Minnesota and everyone blamed on Sam Darnold because that's all we knew of him before. But like, should we look at KOC for a second just to see how it feels like is cliff o 'connell anything because kyla murray's back i i'm i'm interested to see if he can really really do it because you know i i think we get especially if you're hot in this league you get you get quick to be like this guy's a quarterback wister you see it with stefanski you see it with o 'connell you see it with kingsbury you know i think it's a question between the lafleur's right now is michael lafleur hotter is is is uh uh what's the fantasy show doing that are they just doing quarterbacks are they saving next year so it's Quarterbacks this year, coaches next year.

52:40Austin Gayle:I think DCs could get in the mix. Don't use it all at once. Yeah, of course, of course. Okay. Listen, you helped me as my friend, talking me out of that. I don't know that the pump and dump Vikings, you and Heifetz, I don't know that it's going to stick. Maybe table that one and brainstorm a little bit. But maybe. I've been wrong before. I've been wrong about the Vikings. Someone's got to try something around here. Someone's got to try something. All right. Next one, Austin. We're staying in the NFC North. The Lions are a Super Bowl sleeper in the NFC. So here's the thought. Everybody who doesn't care about content and just wants to, they're going to pick the Rams and the Seahawks to come out of the NFC.

53:14Austin Gayle:And I don't blame you. They are the heavy favorites in the NFC to go to the Super Bowl. But when you're in content, what you got to do, you got to look beyond the big favorites and say, all right, who from this next group, from the rest of them, might I actually pick? And I keep coming back to Detroit, but I also can't totally get there with Detroit. So here's the case. Last year, they're nine and eight. And that was like the year from hell. They had the second most injured team in the NFL, according to adjusted games lost. And by the way, the advanced stats really liked the Lions last year. Again, do you hang the banner for that?

53:47Austin Gayle:I mean, I would if I were an owner, but they're probably not going to do that. But they were third in DVOA behind only the Seahawks and the Rams. They were one of only two teams to finish top 10 offense, top 10 defense, top 10 special teams. So they got some bad luck last year. They weren't really as bad as nine and eight. So I look at that and I look at this year and I say, you know what? They faced the second easiest schedule in the NFL. If you go by Superbowl odds, their offense still has a lot of talent. They're 45 and 23 under Dan Campbell. I have questions about their defense, but the offense is reliable, easy schedule.

54:23Austin Gayle:I think they can win a lot of games. I think they can win the NFC North and maybe they are the biggest challenger to the Rams and the Seahawks. Austin, what do you think? I'm all the way in. I'm a big line. All the way in. I'm a big Lions buyer. I have some small capital on 11 plus wins for the Lions. I think they're a dark horse to win the NFC. I think they're a dark horse mostly because I'm really just buying the offense again. Even with the Cade Mays injury, they signed Cade Mays center from Carolina in free agency, gave him a nice deal. And they've been trying to figure out this Frank Ragnall Hall of Fame center that they tried to bring back last year.

54:57And then they find out he had like a torn something and couldn't actually play. But like they brought in Cade Mays. He's hurt. They're going to now bring in Juice Scruggs, who they traded for from Houston to start at center, which I think is interesting because they have three guys before the maze injury that have over a thousand snaps played on their bench along the offensive line in Ben Barch, Drew Scruggs, and Larry Borum. So they were kind of surprisingly fit, I feel like, for this injury. And they understand how important it is bringing in Blake Rogers, the Clemson offensive tackle in the first round.

55:23I think Penasio moving to left is going to work like a dream. I think overall, when you look at bringing in Drew Petsing, he's someone who's experimented in the past with six offensive linemen. You know, the new meta is what if I had 12 personnel? Ooh, what if I did 13, three tight ends? Well, they're bringing on these Jackson Hawes, you know, Nick Bedeker types or Sam Rausch types because they're better blockers that can kind of catch. What if you have an offensive line that's kind of interestingly, you know, and Detroit has played with this before with Dan Skipper, you'll fit to bring in a six offensive lineman and try some of this stuff out.

55:52I think they're an interesting one there. And with Gibbs and them wanting to give him like, you know, a thousand carries this year, his backup Pacheco's already hurt. I'm interested in their run game. You know, when you look at last year, why their offense struggled, I think some of it was the offensive line, but it also was John Morton, right? Weeks one through nine, this was one of the worst teams in the NFL at creating explosive runs on the ground. I think it was bottom five in explosive run rate. When John Morton got let go and Dan Campbell took over play calling, a guy who's not an offensive play caller, by the way, they immediately shot back up the top five.

56:18So there are easy buttons, as Dan Campbell knows, to press in this offense to get explosives on the ground. Some of that's competition. Some of that gives us being healthy. But I like the Lions offensive line, even with the Cade Mays injury. I love Gibbs, obviously. I think Goff, when protected, which I think I'm assuming here, is really good. I think Petsing is an add to what they had with Dan Campbell over last year. And then defensively, that's where things kind of start to fall off. Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph, their two projected starters at safety, are still on the pup recovering from injuries.

56:46That worries me. They cut Terry on Arnold after the arrest on the eight felonies. So this secondary kind of beat up, right? No Terry on Arnold, no Kirby Joseph, no Brian Branch. I could see their defense in the secondary specifically struggling, but I'm buying this offense and I'm buying kind of Dan Campbell and Petsing overall. I think this is the right kind of dark horse bet in a loaded NFC when everyone wants to bet the Rams to win the Super Bowl.

57:08Austin Gayle:Yeah, we're like in the exact same place on this. I'm with you on Campbell. I'm with the reliability of this offense. I mean, you know, they've had different, they obviously had Ben Johnson. And then, like you said, they tried John Morton last year. It doesn't work out. If you look at it, I think the last four years, they've been top eight in offense by any metric you look at. And again, that's been with sort of different talent, different coordinators in there. The defensive part scares me. If you're listening to this and you're like, okay, you guys are just going to gloss over the fact that they're two starting safeties, by the way, who are two of their best defensive players.

57:43Austin Gayle:They have no idea what they're going to get from them this season. That's what's really holding me back because I don't think their defense was terrible last year. I think it got worse in the second half and it got exposed at times. Overall, I don't think it was terrible. I was actually surprised looking at some of the pressure and sack numbers because in my head, I'm going, they have Aiden Hutchinson and nothing else. But if you look at it, they were seventh in pressure rate, sixth in sack rate last season. Man, we talked about Max Crosby in the first segment. If they traded for Max Crosby, I think I would just be going all in and being like, go win with the pass rush.

58:17It's the exact team to do it.

58:18Austin Gayle:He's a Michigan guy. It's the exact team to do it. Now's the time, man. They have an easy schedule. They have an easy schedule. They should be... You could just see it. Him in that uniform. It makes a ton of sense. And it does right by Crosby, which they tried to do. And like I said before, the plan is not 2026. The plan is 2027. That's when we're going to get Fernando really unleashed. Yeah, listen. Their defense could be horrible and this looks stupid, but I do feel good about a lot of aspects of this football team. And I think they're going to bounce back in a major way. I'd like them to win the NFC North.

58:48Austin Gayle:And Austin is with me on that one. All right, last one here, Austin. The Bengals are going to win the AFC North. Okay, so they are plus 184 to win the AFC North. Ravens are minus 112, so Ravens are the favorite. I think it's kind of a coin flip between these two teams to win the AFC North. I think it's closer than those odds indicate. The big thing I'm looking at here is when Joe Burrow's healthy, and I know that's a big if, but listen, we don't know what quarterback's going to be healthy. We could say that about so many of these different quarterbacks. When he's healthy, their offense is good.

59:24Austin Gayle:It was that way last year when he was on the field. It was that way in 2024. It was that way in 2022. I don't have to bore you with all the numbers unless you want some proof, but they've been top eight all those seasons when Joe Burrow has been healthy. He still has Jamar Chase. He still has Tee Higgins. Career low sack rate last year, Austin, for Joe Burrow. So the offensive line, it's not great, but it might be good enough. And the question, once again, comes down to the defense. And did they do enough not to get them to a top 10 defense, but to get them to like the 25th best defense with guys like Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafé and Brian Cook and maybe corner DJ Turner builds on a strong year from last year.

1:00:06Austin Gayle:They also have a very easy schedule, 30 easiest schedule in the NFL, Austin. So I fall for the Bengals almost every summer. some of our other friends here at the Ringer will talk try to talk me out of it or tell me shield it's happening again you got to check yourself are you going to tell me that this year or are you with me on the Cincinnati Bengals I can't ride with you I'm sorry I can't do it um I think I think I think on paper the on paper Bengals are maybe everyone's team everyone's favorite team in the league um I'm out because I think that the Zach Taylor of it all needs to come to roost and you He's kind of hot and cold on how much he should play his starters in the preseason because his September record is so loudly awful.

1:00:51And when you go back and watch the Bengals against Detroit's backups, their starting offense, yeah, a couple nice burrow throws. But I saw another offensive line with some injuries or some worries and Zach Taylor on third and 15 calling a screen and kind of hanging it up. It felt like we were already in midseason form with this offense trying to kind of just go. I think Zach Taylor's biggest problem is he kind of just does whatever Joe Burrow wants. And I was going to bring up this stat at the end of the show, but in the preseason so far, the league average for under center percentage is 44%. The league has not averaged 44 % under center for any season since 2012 when Adrian Peterson won MVP.

1:01:31It is a completely different game if we're no longer in 11 personnel all the time and we're in the shotgun. It's a completely different game when we don't only need passing explosives because the defense haven't caught up yet and linebackers are still fat and slow and safeties aren't running too high yet because the league has changed. Mike McDonald has changed it. Mahomes has changed it. And if I know they're trying to get under center more and the Bengals under center percentage is higher, but like if they run into friction with this offense and let's look at the start of the season. We've got Bucks at home, interesting, and then you've got to go on the road to Houston.

1:02:01Then you've got Pittsburgh. Then you have the Jaguars at home. Like four tough games to start and if they get out of a sloppy start, I don't think it's going to be the offense blaming Burrow. It's going to be the offense blaming Zach Taylor. And I think he's a sneaky bet for first coach fired. And Joe Burrow's going to get into his 30s now. Like, are you going to waste Joe Burrow's entire career on Zach Taylor when it's very clear to me, and I feel like other people who watch the offense, that it's stale and behind and too catered to Burrow. Okay, but it's good every year, Austin.

1:02:34Austin Gayle:I mean, I can always hear everybody's obsessed with under center play action. It's good because of Burrow. Okay, but Burrow wants to play that way. So it's easier for you to say, Zach Taylor doesn't push back on Burrow. If I'm Zach Taylor, I am connected to Joe Burrow. If Joe Burrow doesn't like me, I'm out the door in 24 hours. But let's see it. And by the way, we're not losing because we're not going under center. Obviously, I agree with you. If they brought in a coach, it's like Aaron Rodgers with Matt LaFleur. If he got with a coach who could convince him, all right, Aaron, I know you don't like to do this under center.

1:03:04Austin Gayle:Play action. Let me show you why it works. Can we come up with some hybrid? And he wins two MVPs. I agree with you. that conversation would be great and Joe Burrow could benefit from it. At the same time, that's not why they're losing. They're losing because their defense has been the worst in the NFL some of these years. But that's because they've missed on picks in my opinion. Like Miles Murphy hasn't had out. Shamar Stewart's not padding out. Dax Hill has already hurt. Totally. I think that like... But that's not because they're not going under center. But if I told every Bengals fan right now that next year your head coach is going to be Mike McDaniel but you had to fire Zach Taylor right now.

1:03:33I don't even think they'd let me finish the sentence. I don't think they'd let me finish the sentence. That's true. they know that the ceiling on this offense is tapped. And if they run into any friction at all, oh no, an offensive line injury. Oh no, a Burrow injury. Oh no, one of the skill players gets hurt. I don't think I trust Zach Taylor or even Burrow necessarily to be able to solve the necessary problems on offense for this to work. And if they are, after this year, still going to be looking back way deep at 2021, which will be five years ago at the successes that they had, while Joe Burrow is going to go into his 30s when you age differently, you think differently, you've seen that with Burr already.

1:04:04Like, I really do not think Cincinnati is going into 2027 with Zach Taylor. And that bet is on this offense not looking good out of the gate and people getting frustrated and the blame game, I think, going around early, like we've seen before. And I know it's even year, and I know the guys are healthy on paper, but I'd be rather betting them week to week when I know every single player is healthy than actually thinking about them season long. Because I think eventually that there's going to be enough concern here. And we've seen it with the Bengals before, right? They held on to Marvin Lewis way too long.

1:04:31They don't like firing coaches. I think they've held on to Zach Taylor too long. And this year, if there's going to be any year that it needs to happen, I think it's this one. It's partly wishful thinking because I want Burrow to play with a different office of play color. I'm sorry. Like, I think he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league with his best friend at wide receiver and one of the best number two receivers in the league, Gasicki, who we wanted a first round tackle in Amaris Mims. Like, like what, what else do you need? Like it's clear what the limitation of this offense is. And like, we just want to go into another season doing the same thing.

1:04:57It feels like insanity.

1:04:58Austin Gayle:I still feel like, like if I were Zach Taylor's agent, I would be like, all right, you're ripping me for all those picks that they missed on defensively. Look at, look at the product we put out. I think Mike Sando and his quarterback tears had some stat about like when the Bengals score 30 with Burrow, what their record is compared to every other team in the NFL. And it's by far the worst in the NFL. So if I'm Zach Taylor, I'm like, I'm trying to appease my quarterback. The offense is working and our defense is terrible because the front office has missed on a bunch of picks. I actually think that's a fair defense.

1:05:28Austin Gayle:Now, having said that, I also agree with you that you could eat. Obviously, you could upgrade from Zach Taylor and it would be a better situation. But are the Bengals going to be willing to do that? They feel very high variance. I think you laid out kind of the worst case scenario where it just doesn't happen. Defense thinks again, maybe the offense isn't as good as I think it's going to be. And Zach Taylor's out of there. I do think there's a scenario where there are legit Super Bowl contenders. If Dexter Lawrence looks like the guy we saw two years ago. If some of these picks that have, or the younger players that are like, all right, Dax Hill, DJ Turner, can you get something out of these guys?

1:06:01Austin Gayle:Can you figure out your personnel a little bit better? Can you create some turnovers? A lot of times defensive statistics are about not how good the defense is playing, but what quarterbacks did you actually face? Like the Patriots last year, they faced seven quarterbacks who are literally not starters in the NFL this year, last year. Like, yeah, your stats are going to look better when you have that. and the Bengals on paper have the third easiest schedule in the NFL. So you know what? I appreciate the feedback. I still think they might win 10, 11 games. I have them and the Ravens very even where I'm going to have one of, I'm going to have them both in the playoffs.

1:06:34Austin Gayle:I feel good about that. I think I'm going to have both of them in the playoffs. I just don't know who I'm going to have winning the division. I think betting odds price in that the most likely outcome is that the Bengals, because they're healthy right now, are pretty good because the offense is solid and they added pieces on defense. Dax Hill's banged up, Brian Cook's banged up, but maybe they're ready to start week one. I'm, I think, saying this because I'm rooting for them to have a year from hell because I think we need to get rid of Zach Taylor. I think another year where even if the offense looks banana land like it did a couple years ago, but they don't make a run in the playoffs, I'm going to be sitting here again frustrated while we're still looking at Zach Taylor as the head coach.

1:07:07You know how ESPN every year asks all those executives to rank the best players? I'd like to see that same interview for coaches because I don't think Zach Taylor makes the top 10. He might not make the honorable mentions. I really don't think so. And if you're going to tell me, not even a top 10, maybe fringe top 14 coach in the NFL, who's moved on from Lou Anarumo, who was the hero of that Super Bowl run somehow, and now on his next defense coordinator, who I bet he scapegoats if the defense doesn't work out well again, like, I just don't get it. Like, you're going to tell me that one of the best quarterbacks in the league is going to play his entire career with a coach that the consensus would be he's not even a top 12, top 14 coach in the NFL?

1:07:39That feels like a mistake. Like, that feels like a miss. That feels like the decision every other team in this division made. Browns move on from Stefanski. Ravens move on from Harbaugh. Tomlin and Steelers part ways. The fact that Zach Taylor is the last coach in this division is nonsensical to me. It doesn't make sense.

1:07:53Austin Gayle:And coaching staffs do not have, like you don't have a salary cap for what you can spend on a coaching staff. Like I was just picturing this team, Austin, what if Brian Flores was their defensive coordinator? You know, it's just like, we would be probably having a completely different conversation. So there's a lot of blame to go around in Cincinnati. If things go poorly, I think you're right that they're feeling the heat here with this score of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins and the way it started that if things don't go well, it doesn't feel like they can just have an 8-9, 9-8 season and run it back next season.

1:08:25Austin Gayle:Now, maybe we're wrong about that and we're having a conversation next summer saying, oh, they ran it back, but I don't think that's the case. All right. That was fun. Those are the takes I'm chewing on. Listen, we got a lot more pods between now and week one. So I will give you my official, here's where I landed at some point here. but thank you to Austin for talking me through some of those potential takes. Sorry. Thanks to Austin, Gail. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Stefano Sanchez on video and additional production supervision by Conor Nevins and Arjuna. Ram Gopal, I'm Shil Kapadia.

1:08:55Austin Gayle:We will talk to you next time on the Ringer NFL Show.

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