Race for the 1-seed! Will it be the Broncos, Patriots, or Jaguars in the AFC's Top Spot?

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1:35Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are talking about the race for the one seed in the AFC going into the final two weeks of the season. This is huge. Such an advantage. You get the bye in the first round. Then you get home field throughout until the Super Bowl. And there are three main teams still in contention for that one seed. The Broncos, the Patriots, the Jaguars. Who would have thought the Jaguars? What's the path for each team to get the one seed? We will give you all of the scenarios. My guest today is the Ringers, Lindsay Jones. She covered that Broncos-Jaguars game in Denver on Sunday.

2:14We'll talk about what we learned from that performance and predict who we think is going to end up being the one seed in the AFC. All right, let's take a break. We come back with Lindsey Jones. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a C captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal.

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3:09all right we are back here with lindsey jones we're talking race to the one seed in the afc three teams more than three teams are alive but three teams are like really alive for this going into the final two weeks. And we are starting with the team in your hometown, Lindsey, the Denver Broncos. You were at the game on Sunday. Broncos, Jaguars, Broncos lose, but they're still in good shape. They have a 46 % chance to get the one seed here. Just let's start with this. What is sort of the vibe check in Denver after I feel like the fan base has felt disrespected all season and now they lose a game late in the season?

3:48Is it like, hey, it's all good? Or is it like, uh-oh, you know, this might go south? Yeah, I think there's a little bit of both. Vibes are generally have been really good. This is a great time to be a Denver sports fan because the Nuggets are awesome. The Colorado Avalanche are insane. I think they've lost like one game in the last, they're like 20 and one or something like that. And then the Broncos hadn't lost until since week three. So it had been a really good time to be a Broncos fan, a Denver sports fan. So there wasn't a ton to be complaining about. But I do think the loss on Sunday was a bit of kind of like a wake-up call.

4:25Like, I think the way that they'd been winning game after game after game, largely in the same way, right? Like, a lot of these really close games, clutch performances in the fourth quarter, this ferocious pass rush, did, I think, cover up some of the vulnerabilities, some of the weaknesses in the defense that we'd been seeing over the last month. and, you know, it just kind of took them out of their winning formula a little bit. So in many ways, I think that they kind of needed this type of reset point where, you know, you're going to have to answer some hard questions for the first time in a little while.

4:58And also they, you know, really tight turnaround. They're playing Thursday night, Christmas night in Kansas City. But, you know, I think this is the type of loss that they needed to maybe jumpstart a run late in the season. Yeah, they're still in great shape. I mean, they're the team that they control their fate here. So if they win their last two games, they get the one seat. So if they win these last two games against the Chiefs and then a big one against the Chargers, which I'll get to here in a second in week 18, they still control their fate. So no other team can say that in the AFC, that, hey, if we just win our last two games, we're in here.

5:32But it also does get a little tricky because the Chargers play the Texans this weekend. And if both those teams win, right, then the Broncos go into week 18 and they're saying we're the one seed going into week 18. But then if they lose that week 18 game against the Chargers, not only are they not the one seed, but now they're a wildcard team and they're going on the road in the first round. So it just felt like they've been in the driver's seat. They've been feeling good this whole time. I tucked myself into them a couple of weeks ago that no, they can't actually win the Super Bowl. I was wrong about them.

6:09That week 18 game against the Chargers suddenly really looms large. Yeah. And I think, you know, I had really, I'm a skeptic, right? I mean, I think people who know me in this media market, I've been covering the Broncos for a really long time. I think I tend to get kind of like a Debbie Downer reputation. Like it takes me a little while to really buy all the way in. And I was at the Chiefs game about a month ago and I left that being like, well, you know, I still, I still am not all the way in on this Bo Nix offense or whatever, but the math is working in their favor. And I was kind of like, this is going to happen strictly because of the math.

6:44And now the math like is kind of in their favor, but not nearly as much as it was. It was a few weeks ago. So yeah, it's really wild that you could go from the one seed to a wild card that quickly. And yes, they lost on Sunday at home to the Jaguars. But if any, if you took anything away from that game, the Packers game the week before, the Chiefs game in November, it's that the home field in Denver really matters. This is becoming once again, a really, really, really difficult place to play. And huge credit to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars and the way that they handled that because there was a little bit of stretch early in that game, the first couple series, where it felt like the crowd was going to take the Jaguars completely out of that game.

7:27And they handled it. And I don't think a lot of other teams are going to be able to do that. So I think the Broncos are in a position where they need that home field because it can be a huge asset come January. So, yeah, the next week, next two weeks are going to be really, really wild. And I'm very interested to see what sort of, you know, coaching comes out of this loss and what sort of adjustments they can make. I don't know how much we're going to learn against the Chiefs on Thursday night. Yeah. They didn't exactly strike me as a team that looked like they wanted to be playing football anymore.

8:02You know, I guess potentially, you know, the very end of maybe the end of the Travis Kelsey are people will want to. show up and cheer for that on Christmas night. But, you know, I'm very curious to see, especially defensively, what sort of levers they're able to pull. Because I went to the losing Broncos locker room for a bit last night, and it wasn't like this super somber. It felt like angry. Like guys were like, they realized that they got their ass kicked for the first time this season. And, you know, the two games that they lost early in the season, It was a late field goal to the Chargers, and it was that leverage call play field goal game to the Colts back in September.

8:45But they hadn't really gotten like, yeah, like I said, their asses handed them. It just has not, that's not been what's happened. And when they have fallen behind, you know, they've had this kind of lever they've been able to pull on defense where they just crank up that pass rush a little bit. They were able to keep games closed, force field goals, give Bo Nix a chance to, you know, turn into whatever superhero he is able to do in the fourth quarter. And that kind of fell apart. And Nick Benito, one of their best pass rushers, he was really angry. Like he stood there and he had like a puffy coat and he like zipped it up all the way.

9:20I know if you're listening, but he zipped it up basically to his nose and he kind of stood there. And to his credit, he answered every single question. but he frankly he said I played like ass he took it like he was shouldering he said it was my fault we weren't getting to Trevor Lawrence more than they were and he said that frankly the truth is that they haven't been playing well since the bye week and I think that's true especially for the defense specifically that this is about a month now that things have been different for them and yesterday's game this loss to the Jaguars revealed that in a way that these close wins have not Yeah, that was the most surprising thing is that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars just went up and down the field against them.

10:01I mean, I could have going into it. I could have been like, OK, yeah, I can easily paint a scenario where the Broncos lose this game. It's like a three point spread. But I didn't think it was going to look like that. I mean, he was carving them up and we'll talk about the Jaguars here in a minute. But that certainly was the most surprising aspect of this. And like you mentioned, we're not really going to know this week if they found answers. I mean, unless if they are giving up yards to the Chiefs, that will be like, all right, panic button right away. But it really, I think week 18 will get a feel.

10:31All right, a lot on the line, bad Chargers offensive line. Can they dominate the way they've dominated in the past defensively? So I think that's fair. And just to your point about the consistent competitiveness, that's been like the most impressive part of the Sean Payton experience to me. You know, last year, they only lost one game in the regular season by more than seven points. like you said, this was the only game all season. They've lost by more than seven points, just their style of play. They generally figure out a way to be competitive even when they are losing. So I'm curious to see how I totally agree with your point about home field means more to them.

11:05I think then maybe any other team in the NFL, like it, like if they get home field and the buy, I'm going to go, yes, the Broncos can get to the Superbowl. If they're a wild card going in, I'm going to be like, no, I don't, I don't think they can win three games on the road and get to the Super Bowl. And that's a wild season. So maybe I'll end up on there. You know, nobody believed in us real weeks from now if they get to the Super Bowl. But that's kind of how I see the Broncos right now. Yeah, I mean, everybody that's left in the AFC right now probably has some sort of, you know, they can all play that nobody believes in us card, except for, I don't know, maybe the Bills because you have the reigning MVP.

11:40But the Broncos and Jaguars certainly are having like, nobody believes in us. No, nobody believes in us. Like they're just kind of fighting over to have that mantle. And, you know, I guess right now it's the Jaguars because, you know, the small market thing, whatever that means. That was all kind of silly. I was sitting there second row and Liam Cohen said that. And he had a smirk. He knew exactly what he was doing. and good for them and good for them for giving the Broncos the kick in the mouth that they probably needed. There you go. So Broncos, again, Broncos win their last two games here. They are the one seed.

12:17They control their fate. They get the tie break over the Patriots because of win percentage in common games. But if the Chargers win this weekend, then that week 18 game is huge between the Broncos and Chargers. Could bump them from the one seed to a wild card seed. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Let's talk about the New England Patriots. 100 free events, 6 ,000 kids, one mission. Clinic Kids is using sports and evidence-based wellness coaching to help kids build confidence, resilience, and the tools they need for life's challenges and opportunities. Up through August, 2026, they're running 100 free sessions for school and community-based organizations near you.

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13:40All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. So I mentioned the Broncos have a 46 % chance. That's courtesy of the Athletics Playoff Simulator. Patriots, not far behind them at 38 % here. So Patriots are right in this. They've got the Jets and the Dolphins in their final two games. Again, the Broncos own the tie break over the Patriots here. So you basically need to win your two games and the Broncos need to lose one of their final two games. And then the Patriots get home field advantage throughout and they get the one seat here. How should Patriots fans be feeling after that win over Tyler Huntley?

14:22Lamar, I don't know. I don't even know it's over. Ravens defense, Tyler Huntley, half of Lamar Jackson. in. They did win the game and they still got a shot here, but I don't know, Lindsay, like, did we learn a lot about the Patriots in that game or how do you feel about them going into the final two weeks here? Yeah. I mean, I, I feel like that game told me a little bit more about the Ravens and the way that the Ravens season has kind of just gone this, you know, there's a lot of contenders for season from hell this year. And I think the Ravens are very much among them, but they lost in the ways that they have been losing too, too, too often.

14:55But in terms of the Patriots, Like if you're a Patriots fan, I think you need to be feeling really good because this is kind of the way that you're going to need to win in the playoffs. Like their defense, not great. Right. I don't know if there's anything that they do particularly well on defense, but you have a quarterback that is going to be able to win you every single game. And look, sometimes we spend so much time talking about, you know, getting really into the analytics and, you know, studying the film and everything. But once we get to January, so often is like, is your quarterback good?

15:29Like, do you have the guy? And you unquestionably have the guy. And if I'm a Patriots fan, I'm feeling really good and very confident that in probably every single game that you're going to play the rest of the way, we don't need to talk about the matchups with Brady Cook and Quinn Ewers that are coming up over the next two weeks. but everybody that's going to be in this AFC playoff field, and look, we know who that field is going to be, right? I like my chances of my guy versus your guy when it comes to quarterback. You know, I would love to see another Patriots-Bills game. That would be phenomenal theater at some point in the postseason.

16:07I think it'd be really fun to see Drake May versus Justin Herbert. The film nerds would lose their goddamn minds, I think, with a Drake May-Justin Herbert. I say that lovingly to our dear friend, Stephen Ruiz. but I just, I would like my chances, right? I just, you know, I don't feel great about a lot of the other stuff that's going on with that team right now. I think there have been some downward trends with the defense, some, you know, still some very significant questions about the playmakers that they have. How serious is this Travion Henderson injury going to be, you know, but there's just those types of questions, but you got the most important part figured out and that's what's going to matter in January.

16:46I really, you know, I was digesting that game on Sunday night and we didn't talk about it with Billy yesterday because I knew we were going to talk about it here on this episode. And to me, now, listen, you are an MVP voter, so I'm not, I'm voicing my opinion. That was another reminder to me, while I'm still Drake Mays, the MVP. Like you just said, defense is not good. Offensive line is not good and injured. And that game, he just had to put the team on his back and make ridiculous throws and he's throwing to like Stefan Diggs was great in that game, but Stefan Diggs just like, I don't understand what's happening with this season.

17:22He like disappears for three weeks and then he comes back and he looks like one of the 10 best receivers in football. So that's what he looked like on Sunday night. But there's like Mack Hollins, Austin Hooper, again, all due respect to these guys, but this isn't like, you know, Puka Nakua and Devante Adams and Sean McVay, the supporting cast and the way he's, you know, he just kind of puts the team on his back at times. And it's not every time, you know, a couple of weeks ago, the narrative was, oh man, he didn't come through in the clutch against the Bills. It's like, no one does it every single time, but he did it against the Bills the first time.

17:54He did it in this game against the Ravens. And I just feel like when he drops back to pass and has time, every single time, I feel like it's going to be a completion. And it's not like guys are wide open. Like some of those throws are just tight windows, put it where only your guy can catch it. And it's not dink and dunk. It's not like, you know, The scheme has been fine, but a lot of those throws, especially on Sunday night, was just like the quarterback is being aggressive downfield and his guys are able to finish the plays for him, but he is so the driving force behind what they're doing. So, yeah, I'm with you.

18:30Like him versus Josh Allen, that would be fun. Him versus Justin Herbert, that would be fun. But he's going to give them a chance, and I thought that was the type of game that they're going to have to probably play in the playoffs because their defense, when you're getting, you know, carved apart by Tyler Huntley there in the second half, it's like, what is this going to look like in the playoffs? They're going to have to create turnovers. They're going to have to be bend, but don't break. Their running game's not very good. It's going to have to be like, if they're in the Super Bowl, we're going to be like, oh my gosh, Drake May just went on a ridiculous run in January.

19:00And that's the reason they're there. Yeah, I was, I'm glad you kind of brought up the scheme and what the scheme is doing for him. Because I was kind of prepared, you know, you and me, We've had a lot of conversations over the years on the podcast and certainly in our offline conversations about Josh McDaniels and what kind of coach he is. And, you know, I think the scheme is helping Drake May some, but I think ultimately Drake May is reviving Josh McDaniels' career. And I just want to put this out here. If you are an NFL owner listening to this podcast, welcome. Hello. Thank you for consuming the Ringer content.

19:40Don't call Josh McDaniels. Don't do it. Don't look at Drake May and his success this season and say, I want to hire the guy who's responsible for that. And if you're Josh McDaniels, don't take a phone call. Just stay. Just stay in New England. It's great. You left before. You left like a generational quarterback. Just stay. It's great. Things are going well. Really impressed by the coaching job that everybody there in New England is doing. And, you know, I don't think the Patriots, our Patriots fans should be like super, you know, overconfident. But at this point, if I had to pick who's going to get the one seed, I'd probably pick the Patriots and this will get me in trouble at home.

20:19So yeah, my daughter's friends' dads are going to start texting me. What did you say? I can't believe you'd say that, but I said it. It's fine. I honestly feel the same way. I was doing this exercise and I'm like, what do I actually think is going to happen? and I kind of think the Broncos might lose that week 18 game against the Chargers. And I don't think the Patriots are going to lose to the Jets or the Dolphins. Now again, the Broncos are the favorites to get it, but I'm with you. My gut kind of said like, I don't know, I kind of think the Patriots might end up getting this and it is big for the Patriots as well because I was looking at this, Lindsay, if they're the two seed, so if it stands how it goes now, if the Broncos take care of business, the New England Patriots would either welcome potentially the Houston Texans the Buffalo Bills.

21:03I mean, these are the kinds of teams they could potentially welcome. Now you're at home, but they would be underdogs against the Bills and they would be slight favorites against the Texans defense that against that supporting cast. I mean, again, Drake May would really have to elevate everyone there and who knows if your tackles are healthy. So I think they got to take care of business the last two weeks, get the O-line healthy, see what happens with the Broncos. But they absolutely have a chance. I mean, they absolutely have a chance with the quarterback in this weird season. All right, last team we got to get to.

21:36Who would have thought? The Jacksonville Jaguars. What if you made this prediction in August that the Jaguars are going to be one of the teams we're talking about for the one seed? They have a 10 % chance. It's not that complicated. They go 2-0 here against the Colts and the Titans, their final two games. Broncos lose one game. Patriots lose one game. That's it. If those things happen, then the Jaguars are the onesie. Now, we don't think the Patriots are going to lose a game. They've got an easy schedule, but the NFL is weird. We've been doing this long enough to know that the NFL is weird. And maybe something weird will happen.

22:11You were at that game. You covered Broncos, Jaguars. What did you think about the Jaguars before that game? Were you one of these people giving Liam Cohen bulletin board material? And did they earn your respect, the small market team in Duval? How do you feel? Yeah, I'll be honest. I wasn't giving them probably a ton of thought, period, one way or the other. They were kind of a team that was... Oh, man, she's giving them that. I don't even think about you at all. I know, I know. I'm sorry. Like, I mean, they were kind of a team. Look, they played in a division where the Colts jumped out to this, like, ridiculous, you know, hot start where it was...

22:45It felt like this foregone conclusion by Halloween that the Colts were going to win that division, you know. Maybe, you know, and the Texans had that slow start and the Jags had a slow start. And, you know, they kind of started putting together this, you know, this win streak here. A little bit under the radar, right? And, you know, look, it's kind of sometimes hard to get super excited about the AFC South, the entire, you know, that entire division. But I've been slowly paying attention over the last couple of games, I think, as Trevor had been put, had been stacking games without turnovers. Because the thing about him is that, like, when he's on it, when he's on his game, like, he throws as pretty a ball as anybody else.

23:25He can be as in command and in control. And then all it takes is that one moment and his like inner Bozo comes out and he has a game like, you know, that Cardinals game, I think it was exactly a month ago. I think it was like November 23rd and he had four turnovers, three picks and a fumble in that game. And you're like, you know, that kind of sits there in the back of your head. But now he's sacked week after week after week of clean football. And I think a lot of that is a credit to him. I think there's also a huge credit to that coaching staff and the way that they've been able to design this offense, the way that they've been able to exploit massive matchups, the Jacoby Myers influx to that offense and what that has done in the way that that's forced teams to defend them.