Scenario Predictions for Every AFC Team in 2026

20:05Steven Ruiz:That's what kind of worries me, though, is that we get a rewind of the late-stage McCarthy-era Packers where we're in 11 personnel, three receivers on the field, triple slants, spread, shotgun formations, and you don't utilize what could be a diverse personnel type of offense where you're getting something out of the run game, you're getting something out of the play-action game. And the moves in the offseason kind of speak to that because you do have three receivers that you could play now, and Bernard and Pittman adding to Metcalf. So I'm worried that we're just going to see that style of offense.

20:38Steven Ruiz:And it's going to be bad or it's going to be mediocre at best. And then the defense, I think, with Patrick Graham coming along, is going to be fine to good, which has been for the past couple of years. And we just get another Mike Tomlin season. But instead of Mike Tomlin, it's Mike McCarthy. That sounds like worst case. I feel like if I'm a Steelers fan... That is my worst case. That's my worst case. If I'm a Steelers fan, the last season I want is a Tomlin-esque season without Tomlin. Like I don't, I don't want that. Like you want to bottom out, right? Yeah. Yeah. I like their receiving core a lot.

21:06And I think it would be sad, but obviously realistic if Mike McCarthy of all this time, like watching the NFL, I don't, I remember when he said he watched every play of the Cowboys or whatever, but like, he's not realizing that you need to get under center. You need to run more to, you know, two plus tight end personnel sets. Like you need to try other stuff. Like that's where the league is going. You got to run the football from under center. You need play action from under center. And like, you do how to try stuff outside of 11 personnel. Like, I feel like we felt that a lot last year, the draft and like free agency kind of reflected that people do want more tight ends on the field.

21:34If McCarthy's like, no, I'm still playing my tricks, this is going to not be a Tom and S season. I feel like they probably win like four to six games. I feel like he has to, I think, adapt the offense to where the entire league, and specifically where the league is countering defenses. Linebackers have gotten smaller. Defensive tackles have gotten smaller. So now they're saying, okay, you want to come out here with two linebackers and four defensive linemen. We got big dogs up front, and we're just going to run down your throat. That counteraction is happening. I think this kind of comes back to the irony I was speaking to, right?

22:01Like you look at what this team is between the tackles and it is like perfectly built to embrace where I think the league is going. They have good athletes on their offensive line. They can move bodies. You have multiple tight ends that will be a perfect fit and being able to use different personnel groupings to get under center and really kind of lean on a downhill or an outside zone type of rushing attack. The issue, though, is that we're talking about Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. And I can't imagine two people in charge of the offense who could be less interested in where the league seems to be headed.

22:32So I do think that the Stilson nature of this roster also just speaks to how Pittsburgh has just been kind of hanging around in this space for the last decade. Basically, since 2017, this team has just been totally unwilling to let go of what is clearly not happening, which is Super Bowl contention as it's currently constructed. And they tried to turn this roster over. And I think that honestly, they've done what I think Minnesota tried to promise at the beginning of the Kevin O 'Connell era, which is like this competitive roster pivot. They've actually done that really well. And I think that what we've come away with after watching this team for the last decade, I would say specifically over the last two to three seasons, is that that's just not that interesting to watch.

23:07This is just not a very interesting offense to watch. And I think that best case scenario probably is an uninteresting offense that is quick passing game, not a lot of downhill runs. You don't get many explosives. and then a defense that I think is actually perfectly fit and perfectly tailored for what Patrick Graham wants to do schematically. And they're just sitting on teams on one end of the ball and then sitting on the ball when they have it, right? And that is very Tomlin-esque. That is very Pittsburgh in the last decade and something that, while I may not want to watch, I think can get you 9 to 10 wins and help you kind of, you know, again, another team that can kind of backdoor their way into getting the 7th seed in the AFC picture.

23:43Steven Ruiz:And the part that Austin left out about Mike McCarthy watching all those plays was like two months later, he admitted that he lies. That was arguably like the most creative and deceptive thing he's done as a coach for the past decade. I want to believe that out. Part of, part of me really wants to believe that while Austin and I were working at PFF grinding film, that he was just like remote watching, viewing through us and then just drifted, you know, drafting off of our takes from that time. He was your guy's boy. He was a PFF darling. You guys are responsible for this. McCarthy. Of course you're responsible.

24:14He said he watched all the plays, right? I mean, he had to have, he had ultimate. Let me read you my weird case, my shocking case. The Steelers have a drama-free 2026. They win 11 games for the first time since... Yeah, yeah, it feels impossible. They win 11 games for the first time since 2020. They win a playoff game. Convince Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers to run it back one more time. And I think that part of... Obviously, most shocking. Drama-free would be insane. 11 games, all that stuff. But I'm kind of buying that this offensive line is good. I'm buying that they have two tight ends that they can play that are good.

24:47I like their three receivers. I think that you're right. You're dealing with zombie Rogers, but you're dealing with familiarity in McCarthy. And then defensively, they dealt with a lot of injuries last year. And as a Raiders fan, I love madman Pat Graham coming over here. And I think last year, according to like pretty much every metric that mattered, that was the worst defense Tomlin has ever fielded. Like legitimately like the worst defense. It can't really get much worse. So the defense is going to get better. If Deontay and I are kind of right with Pat Graham and these guys just stay a little bit more healthy than they were last year.

25:15And then offensively, it's hard to imagine the Rogers relationship, maybe not being a lot worse than it was last year. So I don't know. Like a part of me is like, if you had to bet, does this team win six games or 10 games next year? I'm leaning closer to 10. I think 10 is 10 where I'd lean.

25:31Steven Ruiz:Yeah. I think it's another eight, nine win, 10 win season, man. I think it's more of the same, which is very funny. Okay. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think, you know, a browser, but Gemini and Chrome that's new. They can help you with practically anything on the web. like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required compatibility and availability varies 18+.

26:03This episode is brought to you by Google Health. Stop chasing someone else's definition of health. What matters is what's healthy for you. Google Health offers a new kind of coach, built with Gemini for effortless tracking, sleep insights, and holistic coaching tailored to you. Visit googlestore.com to learn more and start a new relationship with your health. Requires Google account, Google Health app, internet, and Google Health premium subscription. Features subject to change. Availability and results vary. Not intended for medical purposes. Works independently of Gemini apps. Check responses for accuracy.

26:33I get so many headaches every month. It could be chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more. Botox, on a botulinum toxin A, prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. It's not for those who have 14 or fewer headache days a month.

26:49Steven Ruiz:Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor. Effects of Botox may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. Allert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. Patients with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. Side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. Allergic reactions can include rash, welts, asthma symptoms, and dizziness. Don't receive Botox if there's a skin infection. Tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, including ALS Lou Gehrig's disease, myasthenia gravis or Lambert-Eaton syndrome, and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects.

27:26Why wait? Ask your doctor. Visit BotoxChronicMigraine.com or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more. Let's take a break and then we'll get to the AFC West. All right, we're going to start with my Raiders. This is what honestly got us to do best case, worst case, weird case, because I sent this in the Slack and then Arjuna said, okay, I guess we could do that. I said, weird case, weirdest case, Fernando Mendoza starts week one or earlier than Tom Brady wants. And a rift is created between Kubiak, Mendoza, Brady and Spitek. Because the big thing about with this whole thing is Brady said, you should not play rookie quarterbacks right out of the gate.

28:02He did like this whole like TED talk about it. He did like where you can't do this, you shouldn't do this. I would be shocked if Fernando Mendoza is starting week one. I'd be shocked if he's starting before Tom Brady has given the seal approval that he's ready to start. I think the other weirdest thing that could happen is that, you know, Fernando Mendoza starts after the bye, which is like week 12. He plays those last five games, helps him get in the playoffs and we win a playoff game and some things could happen, right? Like I think there's, help me out, Deontay. Is there a best case where the Raiders win a playoff game in 2026?

28:28I think the best case is also a weird case and it's that like Kirk Cousins is still the player that we saw for like the first half of the season in Atlanta. and like there's actually a functional quarterback still somewhere in there, right? And this team is competitive, maybe not winning games, but competitive enough. And then you do kind of have that weird conversation of like, well, if Kirk Cousins is playing this way, when actually is the right time to hand the keys over to Fernando Mendoza? Like, are we actually going to get through an entire season where a number one overall pick does not, you know, log a meaningful snap in his rookie season?

28:58That to me, I think would be a really fascinating case. And I think that you can make an argument that that's a best case scenario. I think the other thing to me that I might lay out for them as a potential best case scenario is that Max Crosby is genuinely motivated. He is healthy. He's back. He gives you this, you know, 20 sack season. And that ends up being the catalyst for this team. You know, like you said, maybe sneaking its way into the playoff picture. And that also kind of, I think, extends the window of time where you don't have to worry about whether or not Fernando Mendoza is a franchise-changing talent because you've got, you know, a veteran quarterback.

29:30You have enough on your defense after all this money you spent to bring in N 'Kobe Dean, Quay Walker, Quiddy Pay, all these people who were supposed to be here to help, you know, replicate, you know, some of the production and decent defense that you would have had without Max Crosby before the trade got rescinded, that all those pieces end up fitting together perfectly and you end up having a good enough defense and enough kind of moxie from Kirk Cousins at this age for you to be able to hang around and I think maybe be like a 6-11, 7-10 type of team.

29:55Steven Ruiz:How would you feel about getting excited about Kirk Cousins as a Raiders fan, Austin? I would, ideally, I've said this multiple times now, Ideally, he's starting through the bye. The bye is week 13. The Raiders get five games after the bye. Two of them are against the Cardinals and the Titans. The other three are division rivals. The first three out of the bye are home games. You would give Fernando two really shitty teams, Cardinals, Titans, and all three division rivals, two of those at home. I feel like that's the right... And it doesn't really matter. If the season's lost by then, you're like four and ten, whatever you end up being, I feel like getting Fernando that time, experience against all three rivals, three home games out of the bye would be great.

30:32That would be like the best case. But if it's more like what Deontay is saying, and it's like that Alex Smith season with Patrick Mahomes, we're like Patrick Mahomes only plays one game because Alex Smith has led them to the playoffs. Like they're going to the playoffs because of Alex Smith. I don't think that's happening. That'd be really, really best case with Kirk cousins and the Raiders, especially because like, I think we're kind of like, yes, the offensive line is going to get better because Pete Carroll's son isn't like actively hurting them and like taking them down. But like, it's still like not a great group and it's pretty dependent on Colton Miller staying healthy and some of these other pieces.

31:01I think there's concerns about the receiving core that are very fair. Like, I don't think it's like Kirk plays. Well, it's not even a guarantee that they're a six win seven win team, right? Like there's still, I think a lot of holes offensively, the cornerbacks, like there's still problems, but I, you know, I am bullish on a Kubiak and I'm bullish on Fernando. And the fact that these guys might be calling plays slash quarterbacking together for the next two to three, three to four years. Ideally, that's a scenario we like legitimately haven't had. even if you go back to the Jamarcus Russell days when they drafted him first of all, Lane Kiffin was fired four games into his next season.

31:35That's not going to happen with Kubiak. There's just objectively a better system at the important positions. Owner, which is pretty much just Brady at this point, coach with Kubiak, and now obviously Fernando coming in. If Kirk wins

31:47Steven Ruiz:nine games, you have to buy a Kirk Cousins jersey. Deal. Oh my God. An authentic one. Not one of those crappy fanatics ones. That's a guarantee. I'm not going to buy a fake jersey, of course. Absolutely. It'll look good right next to my Fernando Mendoza jersey. you want to get to the Chiefs? Let's do Chiefs we just skipped over worst case scenario oh did we? it's kind of obvious the worst case scenario I didn't take this one seriously they play as shittily as they've been the last 20 years Mendoza gets Josh Rosen gets traded to Miami is out of football in 3 years and ends up launching a run for public office on some problematic viewpoints and we all have to pretend we never liked them in the first place that's not happening, let's be careful here.

32:28That's worst case in some ridiculous stuff that you're bringing. That's not happening. I'm upset. Fernando's not going to be Rosen.

32:35Steven Ruiz:How old were you the last time you watched them win a playoff game? I was 2007. This is very much in the realm of possibility. What are you talking about? I see that, but I don't want to see Rosen. The fact that we're bringing Rosen into the mix with Fernando this early is not fair to me. It's not fair. Other things I wrote down that I don't think will happen. Max Crosby traded at the deadline to the Ravens again for two first round picks. And then I said a healthy Brock Bowers gets less than 140 targets. Like, is there like a world, is there a world where Brock isn't, you know, everyone's been saying like the JSN of Kubiak's offense, but I don't think it's like the same production, same usage or whatever.

33:11But like, I think he's going to be the focal point of the offense. He was going to be for Chip Kelly until he got hurt in that first game. Like, I think if Brock is healthy, I would be surprised if he doesn't have 140, 150 targets.

33:20Steven Ruiz:It's going to be, yeah, that would be the most depressing outcome if Brock is healthy and is bad or not productive. And then you're like seeing like memes on Sunday where he's got like Shane Gillis. He's got like Shane Gillis, like photoshopped on his head. You know what? That's happening. That's happening. All right, let's get to the Chiefs and let's start with worst case. So we don't forget at the end. What is, you know, it felt like last year was like a year from hell. I remember writing after week one, are the Chiefs cooks? A blog for the ringer.com ended up being right. But like, I think this year expectations have to be higher.

33:50And they honestly, I feel like there has to be this like level. It's something the Chiefs haven't dealt with before going into the season. They aren't this crown jewel. They do have to prove themselves again. What is the realistic worst case for them in 2026, Steven?

34:04Steven Ruiz:What I have is that Patrick Mahomes gives into his competitive nature and rushes back, plays the opener, which I think is happening. I think the schedule makers know something because they scheduled them for the Monday night opener against the Broncos. And you're not scheduling a Justin Fields opener. I don't want to watch Justin Fields' Bo Nix. That would be rough. That would be rough. That would be rough. I'm kind of getting like the RG3 2013 vibes. You remember they were on Monday Night Football against the Eagles after his ACL tear and the vibes were just never the same again. And I don't want to see Patrick Mahomes struggling through another year, which I think is going to happen, especially if he's hobbled because the depth chart still looks mostly the same.

34:43Steven Ruiz:Maybe Kenneth Walker rejuvenates the run game, but if that doesn't happen, he's going to be carrying a lot of weight. And even if he is healthy, If I'm the Chiefs, I'm holding them out until after the week five bye. They get the Broncos. Just give that game away. But after that, you get the Colts. You get the Dolphins. You get the Raiders. No offense, Austin. But I think you can come out of that two and two. And then out of the bye, you get a gauntlet. You get the Chargers. You get the Seahawks. And you get the Broncos. I'd rather have 100 % Patrick Mahomes for that than him trying to prove that he's healthy those first couple weeks.

35:15Steven Ruiz:Especially as a scrambler. I mean, so much of what we've seen on like third downs, money downs, where he's getting like so much of his like, it goes from like a sack. So the EPA would have been like negative 10 to like a positive because he gets a first down. Like that's where he's not going to get those plays that have mattered so much to him being successful, specifically winning games if he's not 100 % healthy. And I think rushing him back, like you saw, like even with a fully healthy Patrick Mahomes last year and a very close to the same receiving core and offensive line is last year and the same head coaches last year, you can start slow.

35:42So why force it? Like you're saying, rush him out. What's your read, Deontay? that you think he's starting week one? I kind of think that he is. I have no reason to believe that he's not, right? Like, intrusively. He's on the field already. They paid him. They paid him this offseason, right? I think partially as a thank you for playing below market, you know, as Dak Prescott is getting$60 million and all the guys that, you know, are not as accomplished as Patrick Mahomes are getting$55 plus million on their extension. I do think that he's going to be there. I do think he's going to play. And I think that that kind of dovetails into what my best case scenario is, which is that the combination of Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, and like Rasheed Rice, whenever he's there, are like the 2013 Heedles, right?

36:22If I'm going to make a crossword analogy, where they just genuinely look like they are playing the sport at a different level than everybody else. And it is all being led by Mahomes being otherworldly again. If you look at this roster, man, like I just don't know how this team gets back into the playoff picture, let alone the contention picture, in a way that is not asking Patrick Mahomes to be football Jesus. it Kenneth Walker alone Kenneth Walker alone is just not enough and I do think that he can be an explosive piece of the run game I do think that Rasheed Rice can get back to being a yak threat right um especially in an RPO led scheme but I don't believe that Eric Biennemi is going to be able to sit in the office with Andy Reid and say you're changing this offense we also have never seen anything from Eric Biennemi to suggest that just because he spent some time you know with Ben Johnson that that means that he is going to bring the Ben Johnson offense over I still I have to see it?

37:09I think the run game will get better with the enemy and Walker. It has to, right? Like I think two years ago, there were the worst team in the league by percentage of 10 plus yard runs for running backs. That was the worst team in the league last year. They were the worst team in the league. So back to back years now, they've legitimately no team in the NFL has created explosives. I mean, everyone has a different metric. I like looking at 10 plus for runs, but like no team in the NFL has gotten less 10 plus runs than from their running backs and the chiefs over the last two years, right? Like I think that it's got to get better with Walker.

37:38I think the minute I'm selling the Chiefs is as soon as I hear that Walker has a little something with like an ankle and camp, and it's like, I'm done. I can't put all my faith in Bashard Smith and Biennemi and whoever, like, do they sign Kareem Hunt back? Like, I'm not doing that. I think that Rishi Rice, like, we have the problems with like him staying on the field. I feel like Worthy's not a number one. He might not be a number two. Kelsey's 36, 37 years old. Their vertical threat is Tyquan Thornton again. They brought back Tyquan Thornton. They brought him back. They said, yeah, run that. They didn't bring him back.

38:09They could not afford to not have Tyquan Thornton be a starting receiver. That's insane. I feel like it's going to be a hard team to root for if Walker's hurt at all. And every year of his career, he's been like on a pitch count because he gets hurt all the time. I'm scared. When they made the Walker thing, it was like, you know, they say like, don't put all your eggs in one basket. They're like, fuck it, dude. We'll dump the whole damn thing. We got to improve the run game. Let's spend all this money on one running back that we know is explosive, win healthy. And like, I don't know, like to get the season we got from Walker last year, including the Super Bowl run again.

38:36What is the chance of that? One in a hundred? One in a thousand? The odds are long. Please, if you have heard of any of these backup offensive players, stop me. Jimmy Holiday. I had to look twice to make sure that we weren't talking about... That's a jazz singer. Jimmy Holiday sounds like a utility second baseman, right? For like the Kansas City Royals. Who is Jimmy Holiday? In the 70s. That's insane. Jalen Royals. Another player who sounds like a corner outfielder, right? from the 80s and amari demarcato most nfl fans know probably from the fumble that led to one of the worst collapses and losses last season with the cardinals so this is a team that does not have a very impressive skill position group on the whole already especially outside of kenneth walker even if you're assuming the best out of her she rice and you're telling me that all their depth that this is their depth this is what's next in line for them you need not only the guys that i mentioned to be heroes, but guys like Kingsley Suamata 'ia, guys like Trey Smith, like there cannot be any slippage at all up front.

39:40I mean, it's built on a house of cards. 100%. It feels like it's built on a house of cards. One injury is going to affect another. And if like what you're saying, you know, Eric, Andy Reid, and what feels like, and you guys know this better than me, you guys are, you know, Deontay, you're literally a high school football coach. Like, like, but like, it feels like we're undergoing a pretty major offensive shift over this last year and this upcoming year with prioritizing getting under center and putting big tight ends on the field and trying to like change what defensives have reacted. And like, while the Chiefs, you know, I mentioned the last NFL and creating explosive with their running backs, they've been top 10 in passing explosives pretty much the entire Mahomes era.

40:17It's mattered less over the last two years because it's become more important to run the football. And I think going through this transition and hearing you guys say like with Reed and then also with another coach we were bringing up before McCarthy, it's like, yeah, they're not going to change. It's like, those are the coaches I kind of want to fade in 1026. Because I do think that if the draft is any indication, if who's been paid at the tight end position, and how people are thinking about receivers now, all that is, I think, signal that if Andy Reid, McCarthy, I'm sure other coaches as well, if they don't kind of make a change, they're going to get swallowed whole.

40:48I mean, look, it's just the fact of the sport, right? It sounds sacrilegious to say, but this is just a fact of the sport. Guys like Andy Reid and Mike McCarthy had a decade of being on the cutting edge of what was happening offensively because they beat everybody else to the spread shotgun era and now that decade has passed us by the meta is in the hands of other coaches now and it isn't i think it is okay to ask the question of whether or not the the now modern meta of football has left guys like this behind it is perfectly within the realm of possibility it may not matter because patrick mahomes is still patrick mahomes right it may not matter because kenneth walker is one of the most explosive rushing threats that we have in this league and a guy who can also contribute to what they want to do in terms of underneath passes in the screen game.

41:31It just might not matter enough if Andy Reid is not where he needs to be as a play caller. And I think you can make a genuine argument even before the Patrick Mahomes injury that this wasn't just a talent issue, that this was a guy that just did not have the four-seam fastball painted on the corner the way that we have come to expect from Andy Reid in this era with Kansas City.

41:51Steven Ruiz:I don't think any coach is like beyond that line of questioning when you have Bill Belichick coaching fucking UNC right now. Yeah, exactly. Come on now. Very true. Maybe weirdest case is that they end up moving on from Reed. I think that has to happen. I mean, there are more conversations about that happening after this season if they don't at least touch. How many games do they have to lose before Kansas City people start asking that question? I would say this season you missed the playoffs. They're saying, Reed, it's time to pack. It's time to pack them up. We need to maximize this guy named Patrick freaking Mahomes.

42:21And if you don't want to spin, because they'll start saying the same shit you are. The media will start pushing out. They're like, he's lost his fastball. The screens aren't working anymore. He can't just run gun all the time. And they'll throw him under the bus way quicker than they ever will Mahomes. It's always going to be between play caller and quarterback. Every team in the NFL has this, who are their fans going to blame first? Is it going to be the play caller or the quarterback? I think there's some teams where the quarterback is maybe more under fire going into the season or at some point than the offensive coordinator.

42:51I think that's the situation in Philadelphia. Honestly, I know we're only supposed to be talking about AFC teams. But I think that the tea leaves, it feels like the Eagles could be more committed to David Blau than Jalen Hurts down in the future. They're adding receivers that work the middle of the field. If Hurts doesn't work, are they going to be... I feel like the Blau decision, all these new offensive players... I'm confusing. Sorry, sorry. There's like three

43:15Steven Ruiz:mediocre backups that have become offensive. It's like a weird shred. Sean Mannion, Zach Robinson, David Blau. There's a lot of former quarterbacks that are now offensive play callers that were not like even coaches that long. They're all the same guy. The reason teams like the Eagles, like the, like Denver are hiring these guys early is because they literally have to, because as soon as you show any flavor, if you're an offensive play caller that shows any little flavor with a coach or a quarterback or an offense that they think they can maybe have, you're going to be gobbled up by the next head coaching cycle.

43:45Like this last year, we thought it was going to be kind of like 10 head coaches open up. We have like 18, 19 new offensive play callers. Sorry to get on this tangent, but like, I do think that how many new offensive play callers in the league this year is going to be a big story, but specifically these like new young guys, like Sean Payton's not calling offensive plays for the first time in how long? Like how long? Like that's insane. We'll get to him, I guess. Let's get to him next. That's perfect. It's Denver. Davis Webb, who was the offensive coordinator last year, but was not calling plays or was he the quarterback coach?

44:12I can't remember. He was not calling plays last year. Sean Payton was obviously calling plays. He's been calling plays for a long time. He gave up play calling duties in the off season. It was this big story to Davis Webb. I want to get to best case, worst case, weird case, all that Over under, what are we setting at When Sean Payton's taking over play calling duties? Yeah, I got him on

44:29Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I got Davis Webb on Cuckwatch I put him on Cuckwatch like a month ago I'm saying week 11 Yeah, I don't think that Webb If anything bad happens It could be a game, it could be a play And they And Payton feels like He could do a better job, which I feel like It's impossible to think about the man that I know Sean Payton has and the years he spent in the NFL thinking about he's in control of this offense but for the first time in his career not calling plays I just don't see how it lasts. I just don't. I think it's crazy to think that they're going into this year and like yeah Davis Webb's going to call offensive plays for 17 games.

45:04That feels like the weirdest case to me. That would be insane. If I'm Davis Webb I am calling practices from inside the booth. I don't want to be anywhere near Sean Payton at all this year.

45:13Steven Ruiz:He's going to question every call. But if that's a great call where is he going to stand? He's got to be in the booth. He's got to be in the booth. Dude, if he's on the field, every time the camera cuts to him, it's going to be Sean Payton standing in front of Davis Webb in spite of the fact that Davis Webb is holding a play card. He's going to be, you know, Sean Payton's going to have his back to the field. He's just going to be face-to-face with Davis Webb as he calls the play. Did you get first? You didn't. Did you? That leads to my worst-case scenario, though. It's just that Davis Webb isn't ready to call plays, and there is that break glass in case of emergency with Sean Payton.

45:46Steven Ruiz:But the Broncos offense has been inconsistent and average with Sean Payton calling the play. So I don't think that's like the remedy. That's not going to solve everything. And I think if you do have Webb struggling and you see Bo Nix kind of his development stalls out. And then like I have, I don't think this is going to happen because I think the defense is very talented. But how often do we see a defense put together three elite seasons in a row? Yeah, this would be three. Yeah, it's very much in the realm of possibility that the defense takes a step back. I don't think it will take a major step back, but if it's not top five, top 10, and the offense is inconsistent and they have a rookie play caller, like that's the worst case scenario.

46:24Steven Ruiz:I think this team goes, like they win like eight, nine games. I think the problem is, is there's a real year from hell chance. Yes, yes, yes. The defense has taken a step back. Let's even say that's a 5 % step back, 10 % step back versus the two really, really dominant years that they've had. And then offensively, if Webb is struggling a little bit, And even if Peyton doesn't officially take over plays, but like the pregame looks a lot different. Like Deontay, you could probably hit on this. Like the week-to-week game planning looks a little different and weird and starts getting tweaked all the time.

46:54And I don't think Peyton will have to wait long to also just start throwing some blame pie at Bo Nix. We already saw that in the offseason. And like, we didn't talk about enough when Bo Nix got ruled out with that weird ankle thing in the playoffs so he didn't end up playing in the AFC Championship. How quickly Peyton ruled him out. Have you ever seen a coach, ever, after an injury, even one that was seen on the field ever rule a player out that quickly. We didn't even see this injury happen. And Peyton comes to the press conference. And one of the first things he says is he's out. Why? He's frustrated.

47:23Why? He just found out that Knicks also had other ankle injuries. Remember? And then later in the off season, he's like, oh man, like, yeah, I wouldn't have drafted him. He literally said, I wouldn't have drafted him if I knew about these ankle injuries. So he probably finds out about those other ankle injuries. hey man, like, I can't actually sue you for a HIPAA violation, but like, can we not do this publicly?

47:42Steven Ruiz:Peyton said it was bound to happen. the ankle injuries were bound to happen. That's him being an asshole, I think. Because that's not true. They're bound to happen because he just found out that these ankle injuries existed. And him being in the league as long as he's had, he's probably seen this before and been like, holy shit, if I knew about this, like he just said, I wouldn't have drafted you. And him finding out all in the same moment that Knicks has these ankle injuries, he's not going to be able to play this next week. I feel like he's ultimately frustrated. And then there's this other prideful part of him who was probably like, if I win with Stidham, I'm the GOAT.

48:10He was setting that up before the AFC Championship. He was like, I believe it.

48:14Steven Ruiz:I've seen him do it. I've done this before. Yeah. All right. Let's get off sit them and the Broncos. Let's go. Let's finish the AFC West with the chargers. I don't have a weird case because I don't think anything's off the table. I thought weird case would be like fans actually turn on Herbert and 80 % of the team starters stay healthy. That would be like genuinely weird. But like, I don't know. Like, I guess we start us with like the worst cases that they all get hurt again. And like, none of the, how does the McDaniel, Herbert, Harbaugh shit at all without injuries, I guess, or is your worst case just injuries?

48:44Steven Ruiz:I think it's just an injury, but if you're going the non-injury route, I think it's the rebuilt interior offensive line isn't better, any better. And Herbert, again, is facing just an onslaught of interior pressure, which no quarterback can deal with. And we don't get to see the zenith outcome of this Mike McDaniel offense. Because I do have some concerns about the defense. Because you do lose Jesse Minter, and that defense has always been greater than the sum of its parts the last couple of years. I think if you did like a draft of the top 100 defensive players, how many charters go in there?

49:17Steven Ruiz:Maybe two? Maybe two. Maybe Derwin, Tuley, maybe. I don't know. Derwin and Tuley would be for sure. I don't, there would be a tough argument, I think, for the rest of the guys. Tony Jefferson is still penciled into the, I love Tony Jefferson. It ain't penciled in. He's still a starter, buddy. It ain't penciled in. I was at minicamp. Tony Jefferson is one of their two safeties. Okay, that is happening. My God. That's depressing. But yeah, if they're the replacement for mentor, I forget his name. What is it? Oh, Larry. Yeah. If he's not as good as Jesse mentor, which is a high bar to clear. Yeah.

49:48At a certain point, like every year we're like, oh, it's like you guys, like everyone like, it's like, oh, C's DC's like these guys are changing the game. And then like, when they leave, we like kind of like, don't talk about it. Yeah. I'll fucking replace. It's like, no, that like eventually these guys got a matter. Right. Like, so mentor has to be at least like deviations better than Chris O 'Leary or why would they be a difference? I don't know. I hope it's not all fake. Right. Or is it all relationships? Deontay? who they know. Are you a fraud too, Deontay,

50:11Steven Ruiz:calling this place? The place is carrying you? Listen, man, I am 100 % of benefit of nepotism getting into coaching. I won't run from that at all, okay? That's good to know. I'm glad that there was a lot of people on Reddit that were starting to speculate. I think, to me, I don't know, we didn't probably, we talked a little bit about how many trap doors there are for Denver. I think that the same thing kind of exists when you talk about the Chargers, right? And I think that that even ties into their best case situation. I think this is one of the few teams where best case scenario is also absolutely something that everybody is demanding the Chargers to deliver.

50:44It is going to be a very difficult thing for them to achieve, which is giving Justin Herbert a top five offense and winning in the playoffs. I don't think you can have one and not the other because it will ultimately fall on the shoulders of the quarterback, right? If Mike McDaniel genuinely gives him an explosive, versatile, modern offense, and this team does not win in the postseason, everybody can write out the tweets now. You can go ahead and load them up in the drafts. You know what it's going to look like in January. There's going to be AI slop. If man, I love the AI. I love if man. Those get me every time.

51:15I'm sorry. Those go mega platinum. When like Herbert's got the superhero suit. There will be Madison Beer AI songs on Suno. Okay. Absolutely slandering this man. If they did not win in the playoffs. If they win in the playoffs and it's because of their defense and not because of a Justin Herbert, Mike McDaniel offense, you are still going to hear all the critiques about how this guy is not the quarterback that all of us in the media continue to promise him to be right this is a very high bar to clear i do think though because this team is notorious now for not spending in the offseason they don't make aggressive moves in the draft they just kind of pick and stick with what they've got and expect their young guys to develop and their old bets to continue to play above the you know minimum contract value that they're playing on we're asking a lot okay we're squeezing blood from stones in Los Angeles.

52:04And I have no reason not to believe in his coaching staff, right? Like Chris O 'Leary is an unknown quantity as a play caller, but if we're to assume that he's going to do what Jesse Minter was doing as a play caller, I think that the bones of that defense should probably provide you with at least a league average performing unit, right? If Chris O 'Leary is able to just, you know, kind of paint within the lines the same way that Raheem Morris painted within the lines when, you know, he got to Los Angeles, got to the Rams after Brandon of Staley left, right? I think that that's possible with them.

52:31I just, we have to see Amari and Hampton run for 1 ,300 yards and 11 touchdowns, right? Like, we're going to have to see that. It has to be, like, top six, top four. You've got to get 1 ,000 yards out of Quinton Johnson or Ladd McConkie, if not both, right? Trey Harris. I like Trey Harris a little bit. Like, there's just so much riding for a team that I don't think should genuinely be in the Super Bowl conversation right now, given how their roster is constructed. We're going to hear them talked about, like, they are, you know, one of the three top teams in terms to Super Bowl odds. And I don't know if that's fair, but I just think that that's the reality of it.

53:01Yeah. I mean, I think that it's going to be a pass, right? If things don't work out. But even if the offense is like average, like fringe top 10, there's going to be a pass like year one growing pains with Mike McDaniel, Jake Slaughter, the center from Florida that they took that they want to play a guard has never played guard before, right? So like you're going to be, you're going to be in with a lot of new firsts. The interior offensive line is completely rebuilt. You have a new offensive play caller. you know the receivers are returning but like still like there's a lot of new chemistries being formed offensively defensively with mentor leaving i feel like it's okay to expect that like so much i always kind of when i'm thinking about like is the team going to be good next year or not like i'm thinking about newness like how are there new coaches are new quarterbacks are new players like what percentage of snaps are changing the chargers feel like there's so much newness that it's like kind of hard to imagine that they're not going to have a handful of games not go their way because they're just not ready for those those games and they don't have that chemistry yet but like if this offense sucks like if it sucks and herbert's healthy and i don't even give a shit about the offensive line.

53:55Like if it just isn't good and like people just keep making excuses for the offensive line, like at a certain point we're going to have to, you're going to have to be like, okay, like how many, how many more ifs are we going to throw out there? Like if, if, if Mike McDaniel can't fit it and like, they just hired the new interior, like I think at a certain point we, you need to rise above. Right. And I think, I think that's based on the notion that,

54:13Steven Ruiz:but that's, it's based on the notion that Justin Herbert underachieves. Right. And I think, yeah, the people, the people that like hype them up are doing it just because they have like some affinity for Justin Herbert and that they're not watching the film and they're seeing the best quarterback. I know this is important. The funny thing about the Justin Herbert hype is that everyone that hypes him up in the media absolutely hated him as a prospect. True. Seth Galina. Yes, the Herbert guy. He said he could not play. He said he could not play. People forget about that. We'll start with the Jets.

54:45Weird case. Shocking case. Aaron Glenn is carried off the field by the Jets secondary after a road playoff win. I honestly... I thought you were going to say interception. I was going to say interception. I was going to say interception. I just think there's... One of the reasons I wanted to do shocking case or weird case is because one of the ones I immediately think of is Aaron Glenn not losing his job. He feels like one of the most pre-fired head coaches going into the season that I can remember. It almost feels like as pre-fired as A.J. Brown was pre-traded. Can you even remember when a player was pre-traded like A.J.

55:17Brown? It almost feels like more likely AJ Brown was traded or versus Aaron Glenn gets fired. I think those odds are kind of close. I mean, you're a defensive back. You're a defensive-minded head coach. You're the first team ever to finish an entire season without an interception. It can't get worse from here, but I don't think it gets better enough for him to save his job.

55:35Steven Ruiz:My worst case scenario is that we get the Rex Ryan situation. You remember the end of his Jets career where he's going to get fired and then they would win two games at the end? They would win two games at the end and then they were like, we can't fire this guy. let's bring him back. Like, I think that's the worst case scenario is that he doesn't prove to be a good coach, but he doesn't get fired, which I think is very, like, I think he gets carried off the field because they beat like the dolphins in the last week. I don't even know what their schedule is. How many times have you guys seen a franchise that knows that it is squarely in a rebuild and from year one to year two says, you know what we need to do?

56:08We need to get older and slower and less inspiring at premium positions, right? Like basically everything thing outside of drafting omar cooper uh omar cooper jr and kenyan sadiq is about this team just getting a whole lot older and a whole lot slower and making it a lot harder for you to project what they're going to be on both sides of the ball right i just don't know what to make of this team of all the teams that we're trying to lay out a best case scenario for i was pull i was probably grasping most at straws for new york like cleveland it was clear that losing is the best case scenario. For New York, I genuinely don't know.

56:43Yeah, they need to win. Like, I genuinely don't know what the best case scenario is for this team. This is a team that was so poorly situated six months ago, right, that maybe the top quarterback would have been one of the top two quarterbacks had they gone in the draft, decided I'd rather be at Oregon again than go get NFL money, okay? I think Geno could be fine for them. Stop, stop. We need to hold Austin personally responsible for what they did to Gino last year. I think he'll be better than he was in Las Vegas when Chip Kelly was calling plays. They didn't work for this. Yeah, I think he might be better.

57:19I reject this notion because I watched the last six weeks of his time in Seattle. This Gino was always coming. I think that Las Vegas exacerbated it, but this Gino was always 100 % on the way. And now you're telling me that you're putting this guy back in a Jets jersey and Jets' vibes are going to keep him from being a turnover machine again. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I've seen this movie way too many times.

57:42Steven Ruiz:But he has Frank Wright calling plays for him now. Stop. Oh, certainly. I'm joking. I'm joking. Gino is going to be better than he was last year because the Raiders' situation is uniquely, insanely terrible. It was two Pete Carroll sons and frickin' Chip Kelly. It was terrible. I think it's going to be better. The problem is... Now his play caller is going to be another guy in his 60s who, last time we saw him, did not look like he was very interested in continuing to be an NFL coach. I bet you Reich is like, okay, what am I going to do when they promote me to interim head coach? Like you're saying, what am I going to do?

58:09I'm not even thinking about the offense. I think the defense, when you said they got older and slower, and a lot of that was on defense. And it's because Aaron Glenn knows he needs the defense to be better. And he's got David Onyemata. He brought in Demario Davis. He brought in Minka Fitzpatrick. They could not tackle last year. They could not cover. If you can't tackle, to me, that's on the coach. You got to, I think you have to, these guys in the NFL, they don't know that they don't know how to not tackle. Right. Like I feel like it's how, how does a team get all these players together that don't know how to tackle?

58:41I feel like some of it has to be just like coaching, right? Like I feel like, I don't know. I think, um, I think the jets are going to be terrible next year. And I think the best case scenario is that they're the worst team in the NFL and they pick Arch Manning or whoever at number one overall, like that is where they need to end up as someone who's been a fan of a team and a rebuilding coat, lame duck coach scenario for a long time. The best thing for them is their young players look good and they lose a lot of games, right? It's like Sadiq looks good. Omar Cooper looks good. David Bailey has like eight sacks, and you lose like every game.

59:07That's where the Jets are right now, sadly. All right, let's move to the Patriots. I won't start with weird case. I'll save that. I'll save that one. Let's start with best case. I think we need some positive mojo. Everyone's worried about the schedule being harder and the offseason situation between Brable and Rossini and Brable having to prioritize his family very fairly. Some even speculating if he's even going to be the coach week one. What is the best case scenario for the New England Patriots in 2026, 2027? AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs are the exact one-two punch that this offense was missing last season.

59:40And they have another top five passing attack this year. And it launches them towards another 11-12 win season where they win the AFC East. It is a very clear best case scenario. I think that the stage is set for that to happen separate from all of the Brable and Rossini shit. You look at the way that they approached this offseason. I think they did what they needed to do. You bring in Elijah Barrett Tucker to help, you know, improve their left guard situation, which I would argue, if you go back and watch the playoffs, was just as bad as Will Campbell, right, at left tackle. The entire left side of their line was just not functional at all.

1:00:12You go out and you draft Caleb Lomu, who I think is a player that does not necessarily have a role right now, but you bring him in as insurance in case Will Campbell is so bad, even after he gets healthy, because I think some people forget that he had a knee injury he came back from late in the season, and that was kind of the catalyst for him just not looking as athletic, not being as confident in his pass sets. But if Campbell is bad, Lomu comes in, and he's bad as well, then I think you're going to have different conversations about what the worst case can be. But the best case now is you add it along the margins, and then you've got what you hope is a superstar receiver who still has at least two more seasons of that level of production like we saw in 2022 and 2023 still in him, and that that is the launch point for this team remaining, you know, one of the top two seeds in the AFC.

1:00:54Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I think there's, like, this team is the most clear where the line is between worst case and best case, and it's A.J. Brown being A.J. Brown, not being the A.J. Brown we saw last year, where we kind of saw some signs of slippage, especially on the deep vertical stuff. If he's not a needle-moving factor, then I think we're going to see the same offense we saw last year just against a much more difficult schedule. And then I think we could see some regression from Drake May. That's not necessarily his fault. Going into his third offseason, which is typically when you get a contract extension, some weirdness there.

1:01:30Steven Ruiz:Mike Vrabel's head might be somewhere else. Maybe you get some friction between those two. And that's the worst. And then you're back in 2020 where the coach and the quarterback don't like each other. The worst case scenario, realistically, though, is Vrabel stepping down, right? Is that the worst case scenario, though? What if he's not there? I think Drake May was good enough where whoever the coach is there, it's going to be successful. Josh McGannels is within the realm of worst case scenarios. I don't hate that. He'll be fine with Drake May, though. Drake May is good. Yeah, maybe. Will Josh McDaniels be fine with Drake May, or will Drake May be fine with Josh McDaniels?

1:02:05I think it's much more of the latter than it is the former. Yes.

1:02:08Steven Ruiz:But that's what I'm saying. That's my theory. Sure, Josh McDaniel has been a terrible head coach, but look at his quarterbacks that he's had. He's had Jimmy Garoppolo. He wanted Jimmy Garoppolo. That's his choice. Yeah, that was dumb. But he didn't get to pick this quarterback. still I think that I wrote weird case that McDaniels takes over and then they win the Super Bowl over the Rams and restart a dynasty to Drake May but I think how quickly if AJ Brown's season doesn't start as expected right what I think in Brown's head is like two touchdowns 150 yards game and they're winning everything but like if it doesn't start as expected I know he said in that interview he's not going to start trashing his players to the media how quickly does that change you think if things aren't going well in the first half of the season like does he become a headache quicker than maybe people think.

1:02:55It's like, oh, it's with Rable. Everything's fine. But like, I don't know. Like, is it? Like, if things don't go according to plan, which I guess it's hard to imagine because like they're just going to funnel targets to him. But I don't know. I'm not worried about that

1:03:05Steven Ruiz:because I think his gripes with the Eagles offense were legitimate. Like, it wasn't like he was just coming, pulling them out of thin air. Like he was right about everything he said was right. Also, everybody in Philadelphia, aside from the quarterback, was very open about the things they did not like about that offense. AJ just happens to be the most dramatic, right? And the most willing to force his way out of that situation. But I don't think that there's any misgivings or any misunderstandings about what the issues were there. That doesn't mean that he was justified in going on streams, you know, and tweeting all the time.

1:03:38But he was not the only person in Philadelphia, player, staff, personnel, wherever you want to look, that did not feel very similarly to the way that AJ felt. Okay, give me worst case, Stephen, for the Buffalo Bills. I feel like Deontay will get to best case. I imagine it's Super Bowl. Anytime you have Josh Allen, that's kind of what they're looking for. But what is the worst case? They moved on from Sean McDermott. It's now Joe Brady as the head coach, the offensive coordinator who was there from last year. Is that enough? Are they going to miss McDermott? I'm interested in what your worst case is for them.

1:04:07Is there a year from hell chance for the Bills? Or is Josh Allen too good and this team too good to really have a miss the playoffs kind of year?

1:04:14Steven Ruiz:No, I think Josh Allen would have to get hurt for there to be a year from hell situation just because he is that good. but my worst case scenario is that Jim Leonard, the new DC, isn't as good as Phil nerds think he's going to be. And that further exposes the lack of defensive talent on this team, which I think is a very realistic possibility because Sean McDermott, their defense hasn't been great the last couple of years, but Sean McDermott knows how to coach defense. He knows how to coach. Yeah, he's a floor-raising defensive coach. And if Jim Leonard isn't ready to call plays in the NFL, which I think he is going to be ready for it, then this could be a disaster where the defense kind of the defense stinks.

1:04:52Steven Ruiz:Joe Brady has this new responsibility and you kind of see you kind of put a dent in his play calling so the offense is a little worse and they had the same problems they had last year not being able to create explosive plays especially against man coverage and then Josh Allen has to put on the Superman cape even more than he did last year which I guess was kind of overrated because they did have a run game but if the run game isn't as good then yeah I could see this being a season from hell for them is they don't win the division again, which I think could happen. That was pretty close to my weird case.

1:05:20I put Prince That Is Promised, which is Jim Leonard, this defense coordinator that the Phil Nerds love. It's taking over for McDermott. And I think there's another Prince That Was Promised in the fact that they're promoting Joe Brady to head coach. They're kind of saying, we're good with the same offense, and this guy, this DC from college, we think he's going to be the guy that takes it over McDermott. But they hire McDermott back as a consultant on the way. He helps right the ship. for the defense. Leading with four, leading by four with 12 seconds left, Mahomes finds Tyquan Thornton wide open for a 68-yard touchdown to win the AFC Championship.

1:05:54That is my weird case. I think I can see a McDermott coming back as a consultant would be a dream, but sorry to cut off your best case, Deontay. Give us what's actually going to happen. I mean, the best case is just that they're in the AFC Championship game or better, right? Like the Jim Leonard is as good as promised, right? That Joe Brady is a ceiling raiser, right? As a head coach, just from a culture perspective. I'm probably more concerned that he's in the Josh McDaniel, you know, better coordinator than head coach tier, right? Like, and it's not, it would be bad in a different kind of way, right?

1:06:24Like Josh gets to Denver and his whole thing is, I'm trying to be young Belichick. So I'm going to trash players in meetings. I have shit talking behind everybody's back, right? I'm going to cheat. I am trying to, I'm going to my GM's office every day and I am trying to, you know, put my thumb on the scale to get these players in the building that I want and none of them really pan out. Josh McDaniel's his little finger. 100%. He's a schemer. A plotter. Right. My concern is that Joe Brady comes in and says, hey, after coming in behind this hard-ass and Sean McDermott, I'm going to be a player's coach guy.

1:06:55And it turns out that player's coach is actually not what this team needs. I think that that will probably be within the realm of worst cases. Mike McDaniel?

1:07:01Steven Ruiz:Is that like the... Yeah, I guess so. Yeah, that will probably be it. That will probably be it. Does he run back the 9-11 motivational speech? I think he could. I think he could. Joe Brady's last-ditch effort is to try and run up some of the old tricks. All right, we have five teams left. How quickly do you think we could do the Dolphins to wrap up the AFC East? Best case is number one overall pick, man. Yeah, that's obvious. My worst case is that the Dolphins start off bad, confirming everyone's suspicion that they're tanking, but they get better as the season go along, playing themselves out of a top-three pick.

1:07:33Steven Ruiz:So they have to draft a quarterback. That feels like it's going to happen. Let me keep going. Let me keep cooking. They have to draft a middling talent at quarterback, and Jeff Halfley ends up resenting him and then he gets fired and then it turns out that ownership incentivized him to tank and then he sues the league. Stop. That's going to happen. I put receiving core, shocking case, receiving core is top six in the league led by draft Twitter's finest. Malik Washington, Greg Dulcich, Jalen Rager, Terrace Marshall, Tutu Atwell, and Jalen Tolbert. That receiving core is legitimately like, I found a clip from the senior bowl.

1:08:06I kind of think this guy is good for the entire receiving core, which is kind of incredible.

1:08:11Steven Ruiz:Yeah, that would be weird because draft Twitter would be right. Would be right. Even if you throw Chris Bell in there, the guy they got from Louisville in this draft, their entire receiving core is guys that some people kind of like that one time. I would be shocked if this is a top four, top six receiving core in the league next year. All right, AFC South. The Colts. Part of the reason I want to do this exercise too, because I think one of the most shocking things that happened last year is that from weeks one through nine, the Indianapolis Colts were like as good by efficiency as the 2007 Patriots.

1:08:42So like there was like a very absurd thing that happened at the start of the year. And then obviously the Achilles, whatever, whatever. But Deion Taylor, let's start with you. Best case for these Colts here. Is it just running it back? Is it doing what they wish last year was? Yeah, I think best case is that Jonathan Taylor has a Saquon Barkley-esque, which is really the pace he was on, if not better, you know, last season. He has this Saquon Barkley-esque impact on this team that is trying to protect its quarterback from being as exposed, right? very similar to what we saw in Philadelphia a couple of seasons ago, where it's just a bunch of 20-plus yard runs from Jonathan Taylor with a healthy Daniel Jones.

1:09:15You get just enough explosive passes from Jones to Alec Pierce, and this team is kind of able to cobble together enough, and maybe you get a healthy Sauce Gardner, and Sauce Gardner starts looking like the Sauce Gardner he could have been right before the calf string once he got traded. I think that all of those things are within the realm of possibility. Again, we just start talking about bands of outcomes. you feel less and less confident as you start laying out all the ways of which that this can go sideways. But best case scenario is that you have an Offensive Player of the Year talent and Jonathan Taylor actually deliver on that and that that's enough to get this team into the playoffs.

1:09:47Steven Ruiz:Worst case? Worst case is that the Colts trade Anthony Richardson in preseason. Daniel Jones gets off to a hot start again. They re-sign Chris Ballard. Then Daniel Jones turns back into a pumpkin. Anthony Richardson gets a starting job somewhere, maybe Cleveland, and plays well. and they're screwed. They're screwed with Daniel Jones and they have Chris Ballard for a couple more years and Anthony Richardson looks good. I turned it into Anthony Richardson Cope. A Chris Ballard extension would be a shocking turn of events. I think that he's missed on just too much now. I mean, the quarterback missed.

1:10:20You can't move past the Anthony Richardson miss. Like you can't. Like it's not part of the process. Like you can't be like, well, everyone gets a goose egg. It's like, no, dude, that was a multi-million dollar decision. He said that himself.

1:10:32Steven Ruiz:No, he was like, that's the reason I'm not taking quarterbacks. If I take a bad quarterback, I'm out of here. And then he did it, and he's not out of here. I think that your worst case is possible. I think it's more likely that like, I think it's hard to imagine Daniel Jones starting the season hot with just like coming off the injury and stuff. Like, I feel like it's more likely that like if they get warm, it's like in the second half of the season this time, and like maybe they sneak in. I think the AFC South is gettable. Who knows? I think the Colts could end up having like a really average season and non-notable season.

1:11:00That probably feels like an outcome. Shocking, though.

1:11:02Steven Ruiz:I do think their formula from last year, they could do that again. It wasn't like, because the offensive line was solid. Shane Sykin is a good play caller. And Daniel Jones wasn't playing out of his mind. The scheme was just good and suited him. And they lost Michael Pittman, but he wasn't the guy. Getting out of that contract was honestly smart. They lost Braden Smith, the right tackle. But he's been not the same player he was two years ago. And I feel like the losses on offense, there is some running back stuff. But it all kind of starts with, what version of Daniel Jones am I getting? because I know it's not going to be what it was for the first nine weeks last year when he looks like Tom Brady.

1:11:37And I also probably know it's not going to be like the worst I've ever seen. Where does this end up? And like, honestly, when you keep talking range of outcomes, it's like somewhere in the middle and the Colts are probably fine because the defense I still don't think is that good. My weird case was that Daniel Jones, Alec Pierce, and Shane Steichen do it all again with Carly Ursae Gordon assisting Big Lou to a resurgent year. Somehow with just awful, awful pass rushers. Anthony Richardson plays a wildcat, Wildcat big slot roll throws for 180 yards and four touchdowns runs for 600 yards and eight touchdowns catches 50 balls for 500 yards and four touchdowns like a Terrell Pryor Cordell Stewart type you know like could we see it could we see it Texans let's start with it feels like worst case honestly was last year but I mean you have such a good defense I think you can get worse I think you can get worse CJ Stroud

1:12:22Steven Ruiz:signs a massive extension before the season then he's the same quarterback he was last year I was actually going to extend on that I don't think that That's the worst case. I think that the real worst case is that he's excellent in the regular season, shits the bed in the playoffs, there's no contract extension, and then Houston has to make a decision on which quarterback they think he actually is. No, that is good. That's like Stephen A. Smith thinks he's a bad quarterback because he played bad in the playoffs. Like, you pay attention to the regular season more so than like a one-off playoff.

1:12:51Do you think that Nick Casario is not listening to someone like a Stephen A. Smith?

1:12:56Steven Ruiz:I would hope not, but I don't know. There's also like, it's like something that we all were catching on to last year. And some of it was weather, some of it's the offensive line, but like, there is something to like, when you find out your quarterback shits his pants in the bright lights and you're like, Oh no, like we might just have this. And like, that was where Sam Darnold was until really last year where he won that Superbowl. Like everyone was kind of like, Oh yeah. Are we just going to get regular season Sam Darnold? And then when we get in the playoffs, he's going to throw four picks. Like if Stroud is a Darnold in that light, like we have a lot of, like we have a handful of sample size to make that prediction, but it's obviously such small sample.

1:13:27But if you don't win a playoff game and look good in the playoffs this year, and the defense is as good or even close to as good as it was last year, people are going to be really, really disappointed.

1:13:34Steven Ruiz:Honestly, I think the worst case scenario is the offense is so bad that the team thinks about moving on from D 'Amico Ryans, which I don't think they should. I don't think they should think about that. But I think you have to be the one under fire. But that would be a second OC. That would be a second OC. Still, though, I still think if this doesn't go well, and say it doesn't go well in the regular season, They're kind of average in the regular season offensively and they need to turn it around. Nick Kaley getting this next year, I think that they're more committed to Stroud than they are Kaley and they'll give him another OC.

1:14:07Is Sloan even coaching in the league anymore? No, he is. Dolphins, I think. Dolphins is OC, buddy. He's calling plays. He's not just coaching. He's calling plays. We'll see. Weird case, I put CJ Stroud is carried by the defense into the playoffs. They sneak a wildcard round purely based on their defense. Texans crowds and Reddit threads are calling for daddy long neck Davis Mills to save the season after playing sort of fine in three games where Stroud missed because he was hurt. Then Stroud turns into a completely new player, becomes playoff Eli Manning and the Texans win a Super Bowl. Like that to me feels like the most shocking case.

1:14:42Like him like rising to the occasion in the playoffs would be the best case, most shocking case thing that could happen for Texans fans. You're really low on CJ Stroud. No, I feel like they need to see in an important game that him like rise to the occasion. Like they just have to. Like, are they not? He's won two playoff games. I guess I am maybe too low on Stroud, and this might be recency. He beat the Steelers last year. And the Chargers. Come on. He has playoff wins, but I feel like how he played in this recent run was not great. No, it was bad. And I think that, again, it's unfair to the quarterback, and it was unfair to Darnold until he won a Super Bowl, but until you're a big games guy, you're not, and everyone's going to think you're going to be bad in these games.

1:15:22It's where Herbert's going to be. It's where all these guys are going to be.

1:15:24Steven Ruiz:I think the fair question with Stroud should be the ceiling question because I think he's established that he's a good quarterback. And if you're still questioning that, you're just not watching the games or you're out of your mind. I don't know. But I think it's very fair to ask if he's ever going to be better than good. And you need better than good to be a long-term winner. But do you need better than good if you have the Texans defense? How long is the defense? There's a short shelf life on the defense. I agree, but let's just say this year. If he's just good this year, I feel like they could...

1:15:53if he's just good in the playoff games they played last year, they're in the Super Bowl. Yeah, if he wasn't god-awful last year, they're in the Super Bowl. And it's like, if that happens again, and he's god-awful in their most important games down the stretch, like, there's just, they're going to maybe fire Nick Caley and give it another run, but, like, it's just going to keep kind of going back. You just absolutely cannot count on the fact that Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Kansas City, and New England will be flawed enough to lay out the type of scenario where Houston just not having a god-awful quarterback is enough to get them to the Super Bowl.

1:16:20I think that they just missed out on a Baird Golden opportunity because our quarterback just was not prepared for the moment. That's true. All right, Jaguars. Let's start best case. Best case is that Trevor Lawrence plays like an MVP caliber quarterback. I think we're going to have a very similar conversation when we get to Chicago, when we talk about NFC teams, and that he's able to lift, you know, he's a rising tide that lifts the boats for what might actually sneakily be a bad defense. Right? Like, to me, and I don't know if I'd make the argument that Jacksonville's defense was, like, actually terrible or just, like, an abject disaster.

1:16:48I just think that you would have to sell me on some of their metrics being sticky from year to year. I would say that the interception rate... Very turnover dependent. Exactly. The interception rate is going to be very hard for them to replicate from one season to the next. Now, if you want to tell me they didn't miss many tackles and they didn't give up many explosive plays and those two things will stick from year to year, you can sell me on that. I just don't know if their actual ceiling is as high as what we saw over the last nine weeks of the season when it just seemed like everybody in Jacksonville was blacking out.

1:17:17And they got the other thing that's very hard to replicate year over year, which is an explosive rushing attack. So you're telling me a team that won 13 games on the back of explosive runs and forcing a lot of turnovers is still going to be high in the contention rates? It's just very hard for me to buy that. We've just seen too many times on a year-to-year basis, a team that has Jacksonville's profile in one season taking a step back, even if they are decent, but not looking anything like what they did to close out the season prior. And I think that they're definitely a risk for being that kind of team in 2026.

1:17:46Steven Ruiz:Yeah, and I would say their worst case is, it doesn't require Trevor to take a major step back. If he has the same season where there's parts of the season you're wondering if he's the guy, other parts of the season you're like, oh, holy shit, this guy's really good and ready to take the leap. If he has another one of those seasons, and then the defense does regress, but plays well enough for Campanile to get a head coaching job, and you go into the next season, you're like, do we have the quarterback? And we definitely don't have a DC anymore. You have questions about everything. I think that's worst case for them.

1:18:12Steven Ruiz:Because I don't think they're going to bottom out. I don't think they're going to... I mean, the fact that they kept Campanile and they're keeping Cohen, right? There's so many teams this year that do not have their same play callers going in next year. They have their same quarterback who people feel could be a top six. Like there's continuity that I feel like raises some of the floor, but I agree that the defense will regress because it was turnover dependent. Like if you strip out, you know, turnover EPA, you see that's like close to the middle. They lost Devin Lloyd, who like, I think the stats kind of inflated how good his season was last year, but still like you're losing the center of your defense.

1:18:42I put for weird case Trevor Lawrence because I just don't think this is going to happen I don't think this is going to happen this is but Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen backslide their relationship backslides you see public kind of arguing on the field they're getting upset Brian Thomas Jr. has to break them up multiple times on the sideline before he's traded for a day three pick swap at the deadline the defense gets better somehow but the offense gets worse Travis Hunter gets a pro bowl not a cornerback but makes four to ten critical procedural errors or drops on the offensive side of the ball that ultimately costs the big games to play.

1:19:13I wrote that one a little bit longer, but I think the true shocking scenario would be their defense getting better and their offense getting worse. I don't think there's like, it's hard to like map out like how that even happens with Campanile staying and obviously like what people feel like was a really, really, really good year one between Cohen and Lawrence last year.

1:19:29Steven Ruiz:I don't think that's like the friction between them two, between those two is out of the realm of possibility because I feel like we kind of saw it. It might have been perceived. A little bit. We kind of saw it early in the year. Last one. Titans. Let's start with worst case. How bad does it get? How bad can it get for Tennessee next year? I think Cam Ward's rookie mistakes become sophomore mistakes. Yes. And not in a way that's an indictment on Dayball. And they kind of let him cook again. And they look for another quarterback. And they let him kind of lead that charge. And he goes after another Josh Allen type.

1:20:03Dude, I have Brian Dayball falls in love with Mitch Trubisky in the offseason. And injury forces him to start early in the season before week six. The Titans improve offensively, narrowly missing out on the playoffs with improved defense under Sala. Entire offseason is spent on Trubisky versus Ward, Dayball versus Sala. Can you imagine Dayball and Trubisky kind of like, because Trubisky is their backup now. If Ward gets hurt and Bisky gets in there and Dayball kind of likes the guy, I don't know. I'm logging off. I'm logging off. Not from the internet.

1:20:30Steven Ruiz:I'm logging off from life. Yeah. Okay. Are you bullish on Cam Ward, Deontay? Do you think that their best case is like, in like a realistic case, is that Ward takes like a significant year two step with Dayball and Salah there now? I think I'm caught between thoughts, right? Like I am bullish on Cam Ward. And I'm also, I'm willing to be optimistic about the match between Brian Dayball and Cam Ward because I do think the best version of Ward probably needs to just be cut loose on early downs, right? Like you just need to get him in the gun, spread things out and just say, hey man, we're just going to let you rip it, right?

1:21:04Like you think about Josh Allen, right, in 2020, 2021, when his career started to take a turn for the better. And that's not me saying that Cam Ward is going to turn into that. But if you look stylistically at what Buffalo was, they were pushing the ball on first and 10 all the time, right? Like that was part of the thing with Josh Allen is that there was just a trust that, hey, we're going to run four averts like an old school air raid team all the time. And we're going to trust that you're just going to push the ball downfield, scramble around if you need to. You're going to find open guys and then you throw a good enough deep ball to just give guys a shot.

1:21:33and we're going to trust that the variants will work in our favor. I think that young Cam Ward probably needs to play that way, right? Like, I don't know if you'd want him playing in a very precise, timing-based, soon as your back foot hits, you've got to drill this dig, otherwise the entire concept is dead, right? I don't know if that's the best fit for him. So I do trust that match. The thing that holds me up from being full bore, I'm a big believer, is the fact that, like, I just can't touch this offensive line. I just absolutely refuse to touch this offensive line after the last two years.

1:22:03Every year they have brought in either a new free agent or a new highly drafted guy that is supposed to address the biggest hole in that offensive line and inevitably another leak springs. I don't, and when I look at these guys, I look at Dan Moore, I look at JC Latham. I don't know if those are good enough bookends. I think that Peter Skaronsky has been better since kicking inside to guard. I just don't, he's not a Quentin Nelson, obviously. He's not a top-end guard and definitely not a world-changer for them. And I don't know where the run game, I don't know where the early-down stickiness, the stuff that is going to have us looking at true media saying, hey, this team has got a 95th percentile success rate in this specific situation.

1:22:42You're going to have a hard time finding that for me. That's not just Cam Ward being a hero. And I don't know if Ward is necessarily ready to be that guy just yet, even though I'm a believer.

1:22:49Steven Ruiz:Cam Ward is one of those dangerous quarterbacks for people like me are people that evaluate quarterbacks because he is so fun to watch. And he's like a gamer. He's going to try stuff. He's like the opposite of Derek Carr. No offense, Austin. No, I hate Derek Carr. Come on. But pre-2016, Derek Carr was all in. He sucked then, too. He did not suck in 2016. He did. He did. But anyway. He did not. He did not. But anyway, you overlook the real flaws in his game, like the accuracy questions and stuff like that. But I do think he has a good chance to be good. But I want him to be good. So probably going to overrate him.

1:23:23Yeah. There's, I, do you like, I was going to ask you about their offensive line. Cause I know they added two starters on the interior. It's like Schlottman and Bolson. Do you, you don't like their tackles, Dan Moore, Latham. And, and what about the receivers? They brought in Wondell Robinson over from the Giants to play the slot. Drafted Cardinal Tate from Ohio State in the first round. They still have Calvin Ridley. Like they brought in Daniel Bellinger, San Diego state legend, Giants tight end. Like, is it, do you like their weapons at all? Or, or, or is that also just not good enough? I think optimistically you're saying you're in the league average range right like I just don't think there's enough for Ward then like the offensive line isn't good we don't like the weapons it's all on day long that's why I'm like I'm not touching their offense even best all my best case scenario stuff is about Robert Sala being transformative for this defense like I can't touch this offense until I see it

1:24:06Steven Ruiz:if Ward's good though if Ward's good it won't matter if the the weapons are mediocre I mean the offensive line could retake that I don't know I don't know if Ward's good is the sales pitch I think it's The word exceptional is what it would have to be. Yeah, he would have to be exceptional. Yeah. All right. Let's get out of here. That was the AFC. Maybe they'll let us get on here and do part two with the NFC for another hour and a half, two hours. Who knows what it will end up being. But thanks, guys, for jumping on. Shout out to producer Christopher Sutton and all production support from Nevins and Arjuna.

1:24:34This has been Austin Gale, Stephen Ruiz, Deontay Lee on the Ringer NFL Show.

1:24:47Steven Ruiz:21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or 10. Hey there, it's Wayfair here, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone. You're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's app when you spot it, a brand new patio set.

1:25:28Steven Ruiz:Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up. Oh, you need a new grill too? All right, Wayfair's got you covered. With Wayfair's Room of Choice Delivery and fast experts set up on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier. Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app. Wayfair, every style, every home. It's Hope NY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867.