Scenario Predictions for Every NFC Team in 2026. Plus, Jordyn Brooks and Devonte Wyatt Get Big Contract Extensions.

20:54And we're talking about a guy like Christian Kirk in the slot, or maybe you give it off to DeJuan Stribling, and we know how Kyle Shanahan is with young receivers, so there's no guarantee that just because he's a big, strong, fast guy that is going to, you know, kind of click for him immediately. It could be, I don't think it's ever possible that they would have a bad or mediocre or league average offense. I just think that the band of outcomes that are good for them is very strictly based on them being no worse than the fourth best offense in the league. And leading the league in explosive play rate, both on the ground and through the air.

21:26That is the only way I think that you could sell me on this team contending. So if the best case scenario for them is conference championship, Super Bowl, and we're saying that almost any other outcome leads to the fans getting louder and louder about how this era needs a pivot or needs to end or they need to take a different approach to how they build their roster. I think I'm leaning more towards the more pessimistic end of this and it'll be where we kind of land with this team. And that's despite already seeing tweets that Deshaun Stribling, quote unquote, was multiple teams best receiver in the draft.

21:58I'm hearing that now. I guess that's true. I guess Stribling now, so many months removed, was multiple teams' favorite player in the draft, which I don't really understand how that happens and he falls to where he did. But this is where we are. I think it's also important to bring up this is like the hardest division in football. The Rams are the best team in the NFL on paper. If they stay healthy and Aaron Donald comes back, like, look out. Seattle just won the Super Bowl. And then the Niners are right there. And the Niners, according to FanDuel, have the fifth lowest odds to win the Super Bowl.

22:25I'm not taking them at that price. Are you kidding? Are you kidding? Plus 1 ,500? This is the teams. Rams at plus 550. 5-1. Ravens at 11-1. Tied with the Bills. Seahawks are 12-1. And then it's the Niners at 15-1. But there's that cluster of Niners, Chiefs. I think the Eagles are kind of in that mess. I'm like, I'm not, I wouldn't touch those teams. I'm not a betting person, but I'm not touching those teams at the price. Like, I don't feel good about the value on that. I just don't see them as Super Bowl contenders. It's not purgatory for them. I think we'll get to other teams in the NFC that are genuinely stuck in a purgatory.

22:58It's not necessarily purgatory for them because they can get hot enough to be a legitimate threat in the NFC. I mean, if you're just asking me to just evaluate rosters right now, you're not going to be able to sell me that San Francisco deserves to be in that conversation with Seattle or Los Angeles.

23:12Steven Ruiz:And the more we talk about it, the more I think if there is a breakup between Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, I think it's going to be mutual. I think both parties are going to look at the roster and what they've accomplished or haven't accomplished over the last couple years and be like it's not going to work with this roster and it's going to be an awkward rebuild or a significant rebuild. Getting rid of all these expensive veterans, finding talent, accruing the draft capital to, you know, replenish the roster. So I think it would make sense not only for Kyle, because he can go to a team that's already built, like maybe at Kansas City.

23:46Steven Ruiz:No, I have, I have, can I give you, can I give you one? Yeah, yeah. I got two first round picks. I got two second round picks and I got T Higgins. To the Bengals? Bengals. Zach Taylor's fired. Burrow's there. Shanahan's interested. I'm starting to get interested. I'm taking that. I'm taking that deal because you brought up the Trey Lance deal or the Trey Lance mistake. I think that's proof of concept that you can win with Shanahan without that draft capital because he made one of the biggest mistakes in the modern history of the NFL. And they went to the Super Bowl and probably should have won the Super Bowl that year.

24:21Steven Ruiz:And the question I was going to pose earlier is like, Lamar, Burrow, Shanahan, you're building a franchise. I'm not sure I'm not taking Shanahan over those two quarterbacks. Definitely, especially now that they're 30. We're not talking enough about how Lamar Jackson odds are going to play like he did in his 20s and his 30s. Neither is Burrow. Now, Burrow is less predicated on his athleticism, but still, his mobility matters. He takes too many sacks. If he becomes more of a statue— His history would tell you that his body is not going to stand up. I just turned 32. It's not easy. You start turning 30, everything hurts all the time, and I'm not getting hit by NFL players.

24:59Is your processing better, though, now?

25:01Steven Ruiz:No, no. Are you getting through your progressions faster? All right, let's get off the Niners and let's talk about these Rams. Favorite to win the Super Bowl. Literally, they're 5-1 and the next best team, next lowest odds is 11-1. So everyone looks at this team on paper and says, this is the best team in the league. We got Miles Garrett, maybe Erwin Donald's coming back. Stafford, he's healthy. Like, it's hard to, you know, I don't even know if we need to spend that much time on best case here, Deontay. But like, obviously the best case is they win the Super Bowl and they're the best team in the league and they look like what everyone thinks they are.

25:26I think I want to start with you, Aries, instead. And like, how does this all, how do they, What is a realistic worst case? And don't just tell me injuries. Injuries is obviously a worst case for every team.

25:35Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I have two. The obvious one is Matthew Stafford in particular gets hurt. And then Ty Simpson doesn't play. Because we've heard there's competition for that second spot with him and Stetson Bennett. If that happens and the whole thing was like, oh, it was an insurance policy and they really like Ty Simpson and he's not the one that comes in and plays, that will just fuel the fire that everyone has already talked about with Sean McVay possibly hating the pick. I don't really necessarily agree with that. But the non-injury one is that the offensive line isn't as strong and we don't get one of the most efficient run games of all time.

26:06Steven Ruiz:And you put more plate on Matthew Stafford as a dropback passer and he's exposed to more hits. He doesn't need to be injured, but I do think if that happens, he's going to be a little banged up. And he's a 40-year-old quarterback, and 40-year-old quarterbacks tend not to do well with taking a lot of hits. So I think that's the only way, and it lowers the ceiling on the offense. But the floor, for me, is still like worst-case scenario, even if that happens, is 10-7. and they make the playoffs and maybe win a game or two. Do you have reason to think that the line will take a step back? Like when you mentioned that, I know they're returning a lot of the starters, right?

26:38No, it was just historic. Like their run game

26:40Steven Ruiz:was historically efficient and it's really hard to replicate that. How much of that too, though, is like him getting under center, like them winding again? Like I feel like McVay is kind of ahead on this next personnel change as well in terms of like under center running game. Like him turning Kyron Williams into a 90 % snaps player and getting efficiency is the offense. It's not Kyron Williams, right? I would say the weird thing about the offensive line is that for as great as they were running the ball, Matthew Stafford took a decent amount of punishment in the pocket last year. Like, they weren't as great in terms of pass protection as they were, you know, in 2021 when they actually finished the deal and won the Super Bowl.

27:14And they could just be in empty all the time and just let Matthew Stafford sit back there and dice defenses up in the passing game. They've kind of had to swing the other way, right? And I think that a lot of that success is just because they bend defenses to their will in the run game. When you watch, it's really not like Philadelphia two years ago where they're just handing the ball to Saquon and you're just seeing defensive tackles just getting absolutely mauled off the ball. It's not that type of deal. They're just very sound schematically. They have great blockers at wide receivers. The thing I wanted to bring up, more so than the offensive line, maybe not more so, but just as something that maybe doesn't get discussed a bunch, is that this wide receiver room, it's pretty tenuous.

27:52It's actually very tenuous. right like I think it's it's easy to get lost in the touchdown count for Devontae Adams I think that we just kind of think about him as just like this known quantity at all times I think on Jeremy Fowler's top 10 receivers list he was still in the top 10 which I don't necessarily know that I would argue against that I just don't know where that was in terms of what I think you just say it Deontay just say it but like the dude had less than 800 yards receiving last year clearly was kind of bugged by some lower body kind of hamstring stuff, you know, as the season went on.

28:25He can still separate, but not vertically, right? You're not really getting much from him after the catch. And now you're talking about a wide receiver and that's led by Puka Nakula, who is another non-separator. Great contested catch guy, but not necessarily a separator. And I think it may be the biggest beneficiary in Sean McVay's career of the scheme, doing a lot of the heavy lifting to make the wide receiver as productive as he is. and behind that, best of luck telling me what the rest of this passing game is supposed to look like. They are one adjustment from a defense, and I'm not saying it's going to be simple, but they're an adjustment from defenses and how they want to handle this multiple set tight end, multiple tight end sets from this passing game not looking nearly as dynamic as it did last year.

29:06And as all these teams now, I'm sure, have spent the last four to five months studying very specifically how they want to defend 12 and 13 personnel, I just don't, I would not be so quick to assume that if this team is a contender, it's going to be because they're gangbusters on offense. I think that the pathway really for them is going to be defense gets a bunch of sacks, forces a bunch of turnovers. You don't ask Matthew Stafford to do a lot in the regular season. And then you get to the playoffs and he just becomes the same third down guy he was, you know, a half decade ago, you know, over the last couple of seasons while they've been making these playoff runs that just haven't resulted in a championship.

29:42Steven Ruiz:That's why I don't think it's like outlandish to think Like Austin said, they didn't change personnel on the offensive line. But one adjustment, I don't think that's unrealistic. First of all, we saw it with the first iteration of the McVay Rams after they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They had those down years because defenses did adjust and they forced Jared Goff to be more of a drop-back passer. Obviously, Matthew Stafford is more accomplished and more able to do that. But if he is older and taking hits, I think that's tough because we watched them against Seattle and they were the only team that really had Seattle's number, had Mike McDonald's number, but it was because Stafford was a superhero in those games.

30:20Steven Ruiz:He was doing no-look passes. The NDP of the league. Yeah, he was a superhero all year long, but in particular, in those games, Seattle made it hard on him. He was playing game near perfect. Yeah, and it was outside the numbers, no-look passes, and all that crazy stuff. And if he's not playing to that level, those Seattle games get a lot harder. And if teams learn from those Seattle games, not that they're going to be able to replicate it one for one, but if they learn any lesson from that and you get kind of a blueprint like you did with the golf version of the Rams and it gets tougher on offense, I think we could be talking in November about, hey, what's wrong with the Rams offense?

30:55Steven Ruiz:Is McVay going to find answers? And the tight end stuff, I think it was giving teams problems last year, but like DeAndre said, they had an offseason. I think they're going to treat those personnel groupings a little differently. They're going to see Ferguson come on the field and be like, that's a wide receiver. That's not even a tight end. Exactly. Which they weren't really doing last year. outside of Seattle. So I think that, I don't, like, they have such a high floor, but I think the offense, the floor is a little lower than we'd like to make it out to be. It's also, we use, what'd you say, precarious, Deontay?

31:26Like, I feel like it's fragile, right? Like, we say like, well, Ruiz, don't do worst case with just injuries, but like Stafford is old and has had a back pain for a while. Like, they literally like ran it out like an air bus to like protect his back. Like, Devontae Adams is getting older and is struggling with lower leg injuries. Those are, that's a problem. That's a reoccurring problem that would be foolish to say is not going to happen again next year. When you look at, in Stafford's career, he played almost 800 dropbacks last year. Like, to say he's going to play back-to-back seasons over 800 or 800-plus dropbacks is just not something he's done really ever in his career, let alone at this age.

31:57And then, we haven't even brought up the fact, I tell you, week four, Pukunokua bit somebody. You're going to be like, yeah, probably did. And he's probably going to be suspended for like four games. Or like, started, like, Pukunokua, anything could happen with Pukunokua right now. And you'd be like, yeah, I guess that did happen, huh? And then maybe it's problematic or whatever. Does it fuck up a game? I think he could have in-game moments of boneheadedness. I think he could have out-of-game moments of boneheadedness that are hard to calculate in Super Bowl odds on paper with our lads. I think that the receiving core is fragile for more ways than one.

32:30Stafford is definitionally fragile. And then if this offense isn't the cat's pajamas and people have caught up to it, then maybe there are... I think there's a realistic case where the defense, because I think this is the best defensive line in the NFL. Braden Fisk, Puna Ford, Kobe Turner, Byron Young, Miles Garrett. I'll take it. Maybe Aaron Donald. Aaron Donald. Then the secondary. I think it might be the best secondary in the NFL. They brought in the two Chiefs corners, Jalen Watson, Trent McDuffie. They brought back Cam Curl and Cam Kitchens and Quentin Lake. And they kept their DC. This might be a better defense than an offense.

32:59We haven't been able to say that about a McVay team ever. That's interesting. You mentioned problematic, and this is kind of the last point I'd make on it. We've talked about wide receivers. We've talked about the age of Matthew Stafford. It's entirely possible that we're looking up in the first month of the season and Matthew Stafford is being protected by Warren McClendon and David Quisenberry if the NFL decides to suspend O 'Lare Jackson. That is within the realm of possibility. And if that's the case, I feel infinitely worse about what Matthew Stafford's health prospects are going to be throughout the year.

33:30Quisenberry? Quisenberry is your backup rotation swing tackle at what? Is he like 35? That's their next left tackle up. That's their next left tackle up, right? If O 'Lare Jackson has to miss any time, and I mean he was he's been dealing with injuries on top of off the field stuff with the domestic violence um allegations and lawsuits that have come up over the last few off seasons so I mean if the NFL does decide to swing a hammer on him or he does have to miss time for any reason I like this interior offensive line but now you're genuinely going to be asking you know your Kyron Williams and Blake Corums to go get you four to six yards on every carry because that's the only way to keep Matthew Stafford out of third in obvious past situations.

34:08I say this, and I still do expect this team basically to just run through the league outside of its two matchups against the Seahawks, but I would just not be, I don't know if I feel as certain today asking me about it as I did when the news of the Miles Garrett trade was broken, and I was first thinking about where this team was. Of course, we talked about if we wake up week four and there's two missing starters on the offensive line, this offensive line is not deep. If Questenberry is taking snaps for this team, we are in trouble. Receiving side, what if I told you this week they're trotting out Jordan Whittington, Xavier Smith, and Kanata Mumfield?

34:44That's not... If Devontae Adams misses four weeks, six weeks, if Puka misses four weeks, six weeks, who has struggled with off-field stuff, but also injuries, I think it's going to be tough. This is going to be a tough year, I think, for the offense. If those things happen,

34:57Steven Ruiz:which I don't think are crazy to predict. In a sick way, I think Sean McVay would be excited if that was the case because he can get his blocking wide receivers on the... The bag. would get deep. All right, let's jump to the Seahawks. Super Bowl winner. Do you want my weirdest case? Yeah, I think that's where we should start with them. Okay. Darnold is better under new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury. Better. New career year. Three offensive coordinators in three years and this time, Sam Darnold is somehow better. Jackson Smith and Jigba and Rashid Shahid ranked first and sixth in receiving yards.

35:25Jadarian Price, their new rookie first-round pick at running back, Notre Dame, is 90 % of what Kenneth Walker was to the offense. Seahawks go for another run but come up short. Why I feel like that's the weirdest case is because I just cannot, with my crystal ball, and Deontay, tell me if I'm wrong, assume that this offense will be better in 2026 than 2025. I think the offense takes a step back because of Kubiak. I think the offense takes a step back because of Kenneth Walker leaving. And I think it takes a step back because, you know, this is now going to be year three of the best we've ever seen from Darnold.

35:54Right? I think teams have woken up. And I think there could be some shit-your-pants factor for Darnold in year three coming off a hangover where there might be two better teams in the division even, if San Francisco gets hot in what we've said about the Rams. But what do you think, Deontay? I mean, your weirdest case was like my best case, truthfully. I don't know if I'd pick them to win another Super Bowl in a best-case scenario, although I do expect them to be in the picture for it almost no matter what. But I think the best-case scenario is that Brian Fleury comes in as a tight end slash run game guy, sees their combination of tight ends and A.J.

36:29Barner and Elijah Arroyo and says, I know exactly what I want to do with this because we've done different versions of this all the time in San Francisco. And they're very multiple. They're able to lean on the run game. Like you said, maybe Sam Darnold playing in an offense that is built, maybe more to be in the vision of what Kyle Shanahan has tried to build in San Francisco, assuming that that's what Brian Fleury does as a play caller. And now you do get a bunch of hard downhill runs on early downs. And now I just get to be the play action guy. I get to be the bootleg guy. I get to be the plant my back foot and I'm just letting it fly to Rashid Shahid.

37:02And Rashid Shahid is leading the league, you know, in yards per route run because every time he touches the wall, it's some 35, 45 yard gain. I think that that is within the realm of possibility. It would be a best case, though. And ultimately, I mean, we all we all know kind of what this defense is, even if we're worried being on pup. Right. Like maybe that changes the way that they approach personnel a little bit. They've obviously lost some defensive depth in the secondary that they're trying to replace with young guys. and some, you know, kind of rotational pieces behind them. But their front seven is just absolute hell.

37:34Like, if there are people who are not, like, ball knowers but want to know where to start in terms of all 22, you should watch the Seahawks' defense from the end zone angle and just watch what they're doing in the front seven. Nobody else in the league is hitting the way that they are hitting in between the tackles, right? So, like, I think that that part's fine. That's a known commodity there. I do like their wide receiver core. I do like their tight ends. I think the best-case scenario really does just lean upon what they can get out of this secondary again with Mike McDonald. And then the biggest piece really is the combination of Sam Donald and Brian Fleury between play calling and how he plays in the pocket.

38:07Steven Ruiz:Because of that defensive line, I think their floor for defense is probably like top five still. Like they're the fifth ranked defense. Yeah, there's like, there's just, there's no way. You cannot lay out an entire, you cannot lay out a scenario where I'm going to believe they're going to be any worse than like third or fourth in the league. They also added, they lost Boye Moffat, right? He's now with the Cincinnati Bengals, which I think was a fine leave given the contract that he got in Cincinnati. They also lose Kobe Bryant, who I think signed with the Bears, the safety. But they've been working in Ty Okada and Josh Jobe, guys that are going to start in the secondary for a while now.

38:35How Mike McDonald ran that secondary last year, even with who's the tall corner that almost recently lost the game. Yeah, Tariq Woolen. He's been rotating with Jobe and Woolen and these different guys for a while. Kobe Bryant played a shitload, and I think losing him is a big piece. But I don't think what they lost on defense between Moffay, Bryant, Woolen is actually when I... I think they kept the guys they needed to keep. And I think this defense should be as good, if not possibly better than it was last year, given just Mike McDonald's still there. Like you said, the front seven is still there.

39:06But I don't know. Offensively, why it's the best case for you and maybe you're not buying it, why I feel like it is the weirdest case. I can't buy Seattle being better on offense this year. They lost Kukubiak. If offensive coordinators matter, that matters. And they have to matter, right? They have to matter. They have to. So you lose Kukubiak. I mean, Sam Darnold is proof positive that they matter. a lot. That's a good point. Kevin O 'Connell, who people believe I think is a kingmaker as an offensive play caller and still are bullish on Minnesota largely because of him. Clint Kubiak, who's now the head coach of Las Vegas Raiders and leading them through their first overall pick at quarterback since 2007, 2008.

39:39And now you have with Darnold, I don't think, I think people are going to be like, JSN was like 47 % of the target share last year. Like, people are going to be like, we can't, we need to limit JSN. We need to, this run game is different. Zach Charbonnet, who I think they'd hope would be healthy at the start of the season. I don't think will be. It's going to be the rookie running back to Darion Price at the top. Like, I think there's going to be too much newness for the offense and also the opposite of newness for defenses who are like, yeah, we saw the Seattle team make a run last year and we know kind of how they got there versus last year, them kind of like punching the league in the face a bit with Darnold.

40:11No one expected Darnold. I mean, people were like, Darnold was a downgrade over Geno Smith in the offseason. I think I even said that. Like, I think a lot of people felt that. But like, I think the offense and Kubiak specifically, Walker specifically, JSN specifically, I think helped lifted it. Some of those guys are missing this year.

40:24Steven Ruiz:I'll say, I think that their offense has become overrated from last year. Because of what happened, not only in the playoffs, and Darnold had a very clean playoff, after leading the league in turnovers, I think that gets overlooked a lot. It definitely gets lost. But if you had to guess where they ranked an EPA per play last year, what would you guess during the regular season? Fourth. What about you, Deontay? I feel like I kind of know this answer, so I don't want to cheat it. They ranked 18th. They were 18. This wasn't like some consistent juggernaut. This was a team that relied on explosive runs and explosive plays in the pass game.

41:00Steven Ruiz:And you lose your offensive coordinator who proved to be very good at drawing up explosive plays. You can even go back to his time in New Orleans, especially early on with Derek Hart. If Flory is like a dud, they have a dud at offensive coordinator, then I could see this offense just staying stagnant. And if there is any regression from the defense, in that division, it gets tougher. So I do think the ceiling or the floor is a little lower than maybe people expect for the Super Bowl chance. I would still put it around like nine or ten wins, but I think there is a scenario here where we're asking more questions about Sam Darnold's future there than we are singing his praises.

41:39Steven Ruiz:Because it's a tricky contract situation. Because I think this is year two out of a three-year contract. Let's say it's another high turnover year and the offense takes a step back because of the coordinator change. I don't think that necessarily reflects on him as a player. Like he's worse than he was last year, but it does make it easier to question like how much you're going to pay him. And if I'm Darnold, I'm like, I won you a Super Bowl. I had a great first year. And the second year was more about what was around me rather than my own play. I would, you know, stand tall and be like, give me a market deal.

42:10Steven Ruiz:And I don't know if Seattle's going to be willing to give him that. Everybody's backs are up against the wall with quarterbacks who are similarly tiered or ranked to Sam Darnold, right? Because the asking price now is going to be 55 plus, right? Baker Mayfield gets to go to Tampa Bay and say, pay me more than the franchise tag because Daniel Jones just got that and he hasn't done half of the shit that I've done in this league in terms of consistent passing production. And Sam Darnold gets to walk in and drop a ring on the table and ask for the same thing, right? So for a team like this, I do think that is, that I think strictly is a worst case scenario for them because now you have to make a decision on what kind of Sam Darnold you want to believe in for the next three to four years.

42:50And you're not just making that bet on Darnold. You're making that bet on Darnold probably somewhere between$52 to$56 million per year, which now gets you into the more cost-prohibitive kind of realm of roster building. And you're not doing that if, and you said like if Fleury's a dud. I think Fleury's a dud if he's average, right? Because two years from now, someone's going to be like, hey, I think we need something better because you need one of the six to eight best offensive play callers in the league girls. You're always going to be chasing a ceiling that you don't have. I feel like they're going to be questioning Fleury more than they're questioning Darnold after this offseason if the offense takes a step back.

43:25That's fair. But how do you pay them? How do you pay them? That's the question, I would say. Let's get to the Cardinals. Maybe you tag them. I don't know. Let's get to the Cardinals quickly and then take a break and we got to get to more divisions. We probably need to move faster. Cardinals, I mean, they're in the hardest division in football. They're a doormat. The news latest is Jacoby Brissett, who's under contract, has not shown up to camp yet because he wants a new deal because they want him to be the starter. My thing is, why the fuck are you going to pay him to probably win more games than Minshew?

43:54Why? Why would you pay Jacoby Brissett to come in and probably be better than Minshew when I don't think there's a single person in Arizona that doesn't think this season's about losing. This season's about getting Arch Manning, this season's about getting Julien San, Dante Moore, whoever. We need to, we're not winning with either Minshew or Brissett in 2027, 2028. So I don't know. And I think that we mentioned the new coach thing with Halfley. LeFleur, when he took this job, I think knows. And they told him. They're like, yo, we don't really care about this year. We're going to be kind of rebuilding things or whatever.

44:26You need to make Marvin Harrison good. You need to make Michael Wilson good. You need to make Trey McBride good. We need to see some of these skill players elevated, the offensive line elevated. But the quarterback position, we're okay. I don't know. The best case and worst case I think is the same, right? They need to lose a shitload of games next year.

44:39Steven Ruiz:I don't know because the Cardinals have fired coaches after one year. So if I'm Mike LeFleur, even if they're telling me you're going to have some runway here, you're going to be able to build it up, I'm like, I don't believe you. I've seen your grades in the NFLPA survey. I don't believe you. I think he could be the one fighting for it, but why would you fight for Jacoby Brissett of all people? But just to get to my worst-case scenario, I would just say that Mike LaFleur proves to be on the lower end of the Shanahan-McVay coaching spectrum. He's one of those guys. We've already seen him struggle in New York, although I think that was more Zach Wilson than him.

45:13Steven Ruiz:And if that happens, then I think the Cardinals think about moving on. But if he proves to be a good play caller, and they do have some good pieces where I think he's going to be able to show off some stuff, then anything else is great because, like you said, this season's about losing. I'm right there with you. The best-case scenario is you lose, but Jeremiah Love looks better as a rookie than Ashton Jensie did last year. It looks like production is better. I think that's the best-case scenario. It's going to be interesting to me with LeFleur, and you kind of pointed it out, Stephen, right? You go back and you look at some of the data.

45:43And it's hard to parse how much of that is just how much of a dearth of talent there was in New York. Plus, you're dealing with Zach Wilson and a defensive-minded head coach. But you look at the fact that Michael Floor was pretty low in terms of rushing success rate, compared to his Shanahan tree cohorts. The play action rate on early downs was pretty low compared to his cohorts from this coaching tree. And you didn't see any explosive plays. Some of this is talent. A lot of this, really, is talent. But since then, we don't really have any data point to go off of to say what he is as a play caller because he's been working for people who call plays instead, right?

46:17That's why I feel like they need to set goals for LeFleur. And I'm almost like just looking at their offense, like thinking about this as like Falcons light a little bit and that like they're investing a ton of first round picks. Like can Marvin Harrison Jr. be Drake London at fucking least? I mean, the way we talked about this guy when he was getting drafted was like he was going to change the league and he's not even better than like two of the receivers on his team. like we aren't you aren't you concerned like if you're a fantasy i don't think there's a world where you could look at the issue to me is that like it's been what three years now of marvin harrison jr entering entering the year probably having his role in the offense changed right they've tried to use him as a vertical field stretcher as a rookie that didn't really work they tried to use them and you know in between the numbers on hashes you know more of your big boy body up routes early last year that didn't work as well he came back healthy and i think kind of started to iron some things out.

47:07And I mean, their passing volume was just so high that I think the production kind of started to fix itself. And now you're going into this hyper-specific, timing-based, whether you're a fast receiver or slow receiver, you've got to be at a certain spot. You've got to have a very specific kind of skill set to separate, you know, or if you have to ask the scheme to allow you to separate, we're really shrinking your role now and what you can do in terms of adding value to the offense. So yeah, I think you have to be successful with him. Trey McBride needs to look like the best tight end in football again.

47:35Jeremiah Love needs to be one of the more explosive running backs in the league and I think that for Michael Fleur maybe in all of this I think kind of centers around this one point that I've been thinking about which is that I think success for Michael Fleur looks like making this offensive line look passable in a way that it just has not down the stretches of the last two to three seasons for as much as I like you know a Drew Pretzing for the much as I like what they were doing on offense in spite of you know some of the struggles that they had with Kyler Murray over the last two or three years, the one thing that you could set your clock to was that like basically by October, this offensive line was just not going to look viable anymore.

48:10They weren't going to be able to conventionally move the ball on the ground. They didn't get enough protection for their quarterbacks. I think if Michael Floor can take this scheme and apply it in a way that makes this offensive line look passable again, that I think alone will be a successful story for this season. And it probably is the catalyst to making some of the things we're talking about happen in terms of offensive player production at running back and at wide receiver. True best case is they lose a ton of games, but LeFleur looks like he has it. And so does maybe Harrison, and so does Love, and maybe Carson Beck gets a couple snaps and looks kind of good.

48:42But I think we know the defense is going to be bad, and we also know that it's going to be hard for this offense to be good. It's not equipped to be good on the offensive line. There's so much newness and all that. All right, let's take a break and then get to the NFC North. This episode is brought to you by Netflix. The World Cup is finally here, and the coolest thing right now, FIFA World Cup launch edition on Netflix. a fast and fluid game where your phone is the controller and your TV is the stadium. Play as any of the 48 teams in 16 real-world stadiums and it's included in your membership.

49:11Yeah. Go to the games tab on your TV and play FIFA World Cup Launch Edition now. Only on Netflix. This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. More than ever, America needs a laugh. Enter the Super Troopers to the rescue. The cult comedy classic returns in the most offensive installment yet. with Super Troopers 3, a debaucherous bachelor party, an over-the-top wedding, a dangerous drug smuggling ring. All of them are threatening the troops' future. Fill your leader of cola and roll up to the multiplex with Super Troopers 3, only in theaters August 7th. Get tickets. Meow. Okay, we're going to start with the Packers.

49:51I had two question marks for Weirdest Case. I could not come up with a Weirdest Case. I think this is another team similar to the Chargers and that like I feel like they find funny ways to lose even if on paper all the time, I feel like they should be good. Defensively, offensively, I feel like, you know, the Micah Parsons trade happened last offseason. Everyone's like, holy shit. Is this the best defense in the league? LeFleur is one of the best offensive minds. Love is one of the most maybe gifted quarterbacks in the league. They love their receivers. They don't have a... Now I think we need to see some proof for the Packers.

50:24And like, I think that's a NFC championship win, at least in terms of like you'd feel really good about this season. But I think at minimum, LeFleur in this cast needs a divisional round win.

50:34Steven Ruiz:Just get to the NFC title game before you win one. Because I do think there's the built-in excuse of the Rams are a super team who are further along in their build. But I mean, I could... I feel like Akers fans are kind of in the same boat as 49ers fans where they're kind of getting tired. They haven't seen a Super Bowl yet. And then you start like glomming on to the weaknesses and a coach. Like, I think last year, a big thing was how conservative he was. They ran the football too much. They didn't pass the football enough. They went too slow at times. And I can see that being a real problem this year if Michael Parsons isn't ready to play.

51:09Steven Ruiz:When he comes back, he's not Michael Parsons, like capital M, capital P. Because that defense is bad around him. That front seven could be really bad around him. I think he's arguably like the most load-bearing piece in that division outside of the quarterbacks, obviously. He might be the most load-bearing defensive player in the league. Yes, yes. Yeah, like they need him to generate a pass rush. And if their defense stinks... But he's not going to play at week one, or will he? Right, no, no. Yeah. I mean, we might not see him until November, right? Like Green Bay has a history of being very conservative with recovery from...

51:41Steven Ruiz:They have like a set timeline that you have to hit. They try to get you at least 10 months, and I think the more often than not, they're really trying to shoot to get you a full year of recovery. Yeah. Which means that we might not see him until Halloween, you know, next year. Or this year, I should say. is this defense better under Jonathan Gannon than it was Halfley? That's possible. I don't know if I can visualize it because I don't know how different they are from a play-calling personality perspective. Jonathan Gannon is a good defensive coach. Has ever been a good defensive play-caller? You took the words right out of my mouth.

52:13Steven Ruiz:Just because he runs like three high sometimes and does crazy coverage? It's like, oh, that would have been cool if it worked, but it never works. That's his style of defense. It sounds so unfair because we're talking about the fucking Super Bowl against Patrick Mahomes, which might be in what might have been the greatest offense of our lifetime. But like, I just cannot escape the memory of the second half of that Super Bowl. He had a sprained ankle too, though. Oh, he had a sprained ankle. Or no, Mahomes, sorry, sorry. I think it would have mattered. I think so defensively, I feel like I have...

52:43It was a literal march, you know? And I think that that's been the problem for him as a play caller, not to cut you off, Austin. I think that like, for me, weirdest case, which I know was your deal, I think the weirdest case for me is that Michael Parsons comes back and the defense gets worse because some of the issues that they have are, because some of the issues that they have, I think are just above things that Michael Parsons individually can fix. Their corners have been a problem, right? They've been gamblers and inconsistent in coverage, and we have seen them have multiple breakdowns out on the perimeter.

53:13Steven kind of laid out, you know, the predictability in terms of early down runs, their inability to close a deal in these close games in high leverage situations. One of the other things that I remember going back and watching the wild card round is that a bad Bears defense kind of outmuscled them for much of that game. And this is a team that has prided itself on having this revolving door of good offensive linemen and being able to develop guys. And we just saw, we have seen them play in these big games and just get their heads caved in, in between the tackles on both sides of the ball. And that comes back to what we were talking about with guys like Devontae Wyatt and the contract that he signed.

53:47I think that the Packers, for the most part, have done a smart job of building a roster that is both young, high potential, and sets a high enough floor for you to genuinely be in the playoff to conference championship conversation. But now some of these bets have to pay off, right? Christian Watson has to be available. Tucker Craft has to come back and look again the way he did for the first month of the season. I was like, oh man, we might have another Gronk on our hands. Because every time this guy touches the ball, two to three defenders are just bouncing off of his body right out in the open field.

54:20It's got to look like that on offense again. And defensively, I think that they've just got to find a way, even if it means that you're one of the worst teams in terms of success rate, defensively, to just not give up big plays, to find a way to load up the box and take away the run, and hope that when Michael Parsons gets back, he can be the closer that you need. And that that might be enough of a recipe, where if you land on the right side of the bracket, maybe you can end up in the NFC Championship game.

54:45Steven Ruiz:My worry is that LaFleur is going to lean into the conservative tendencies and be like, all right, our defense isn't good. We got to protect our defense by controlling the ball and running the football again. Whereas I think the best version of this team, assuming the defense is mediocre to bad, is let's outscore everyone. We have Jordan Love, a top 10 quarterback, Kraft's coming back. Watson, we paid him a bunch of money. we finally think we have our receiving core settled. I think they should be aiming to score 30 points a game. They should be like the 2020 to 2022 Bills. The goal is to get 35 on the board and then whatever happens after that at least we did our job.

55:25Steven Ruiz:Yeah, and I don't know if that's going to happen and I think if it doesn't happen and LeFleur runs the offense the way he did last year, which kind of lowers the ceiling, I think Packers fans kind of have a right to complain about it whereas I think 49ers fans would be insane to complain about Kyle Shanahan. I think there's a, you know, last year something with the offensive line, they dealt with a lot of injuries specifically early in the season. I remember like Zach Tom, like trying to play through a ton of shit. And like they, they weren't, you have to hope that they're healthier. But, you know, Josh Jacobs is, on, you know, domestic violence allegations, we don't know if he's going to be available for the start of the season.

55:57We don't know if the league is going to suspend him. And I think something I've loved about their receiving core, even though I don't really like any individual piece outside of Jaden Reed, is that they've had a ton of guys. And now, Dobbs is gone. Dontavion Wicks is gone. And then Matthew Golden was this rookie sensation who, I think his last name was Smith. I don't even think the fantasy community knows he's a football player. And then Jaden Reed is another person who gets hurt all the time. Yeah. So like, and Sky Moore's on the bench. That's always a bad sign. And Kraft is coming off a major injury.

56:26Yeah. Like, I'm scared. I'm scared. I'm scared. If Tucker Kraft is not Rob Gronkowski again, which off an ACL is hard to imagine even though he's in his athletic prime and like, you know, medical advances are better. if one of these receivers misses time and Skymore is taking snaps I'm going to go ahead and wave because Josh Jacobs is going to be suspended the offensive line we're hoping is fully healthy like I think the offense has real concern and like LeFleur I think is as good of a problem solver as an offensive play caller as any coach in the league but at a certain point there's going to be maybe too many problems for this offense and not enough solutions like Kraft is a solution I think Jordan Love is a solution after that there's a lot of problems I think for this offense either through availability or even just like actual play.

57:08I thought, and I'm going to get this on record now, I thought the Christian Watson contract was insane. It's not because I don't think he's a good player. I think it's more likely that Christian Watson drops the pass that wins the game for the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship or the Divisional Round than it's likely that he's the hero. I think he could be the hero against a shitty team in the regular season and have 150 yards and two tugs. But in the playoffs, when he's one-on-one and he drops it, bring back this pod. Because I think that's more likely in my opinion than him being some hero catching some big pass down the way.

57:39I think they have the widest range

57:41Steven Ruiz:of realistic outcomes in this division. Like, I have their floor at six wins, but I could see everything working out. Yeah, I'm not ruling that out. This has been a very negative conversation. But I think it's, because I think the Packers have had this, like, you know, they brought in Michael Park. Last year, we were talking about them maybe being the best team in football. And then now we're like, are all like, are they even, it wouldn't even be the third best team in the NFC West. like that to me feels like a big change from where we were when they traded for Parsons last year let's go to the Bears speaking of wide range of outcomes and you know all of last year all of the regression is going to point at like they were you know trailing in so many games and like it's hard to be these comeback kings and I think Craig Horlbeck on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show I think it's very fair to say like when you learn how to come back that is experience that I do think matters now I'm not saying it means every game you're trailing you're now going to win you know eight of those games or whatever but I do think that kind of experience is going to translate in terms of like we're never down.

58:38But I'm interested in what your worst case is, Ruiz, for the Bears. Is there in this an unraveling completely between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, something that I don't think anyone is expecting? Or do you even think their worst case is not that and it's something else?

58:53Steven Ruiz:No, I kind of have that folded into my worst case. But I would say I kind of disagree on the wide range of outcomes. I think this team has a very narrow range of outcomes because I don't think they were as good as they kind of showed last year. and I just don't see the floor being that low just because I think Ben Johnson is such a good coach and I think they've made some additions to the secondary to attack specific problems like giving up explosives and I trust the defensive coordinator but my worst case scenario is that Dylan Thiedemann and Kobe Bryant those additions don't fix the explosive play problem and then the Bears are in these past heavy scripts and some of the issues that Ben Johnson was willing to overlook in year one for Caleb Williams he's not willing to overlook it in year two when I do think there is an outside chance of a fracture in that relationship just because of those two personalities.

59:39Steven Ruiz:So I think that's worst case scenario. I don't think that's going to happen, but I could very much see a situation where next offseason we're like, oh, what's the relationship between these two guys like? Because I think people were pushing that narrative before they ever played a football game together. Yeah, but then I think that that narrative kind of died after they started playing football games together, specifically in the second. But it's so easy to come back because the out of structure thing and everyone's like, oh, Ben Johnson's a stickler for the details. So I think it would be easy to bring it back.

1:00:07I think that the offense is going to be better in 2026. I agree. I think I would be betting on that side more so than it's plateaued or regresses. What do you think, Deontay? I think the best case scenario to answer, I think this probably answers your question, is that Caleb Williams plays like a first-team all-pro quarterback, right? Yeah. I don't want to put the MVP tag on him because it's just, I feel, really lofty for a team that really wants to base itself off of dominating you on the ground. I think that we saw that even as they were getting hot last year, right? That it was really a lot more about, you know, Kyle Monagai and, you know, DeAndre Swift in this offensive line, which we thought was just slapped together at the time, actually coalescing into being one of the better run blocking units in the league being paired with, you know, maybe the best run game designer that we have in the league right now in Ben Johnson.

1:00:56You know, it's funny, when Steven says narrow band of outcomes, I thought about it the same way. I'm like, this is a 10 and 17, It's just going to be a matter of whether or not the 10 and 7 is complimentary or derogatory. You know, and I think the complimentary version of that is that all of the metrics that, you know, make us feel good about this team right now hold true. They continue to be one of the best teams in terms of success rate and explosive play rate in the run game. You start to see a little bit of improvement from Kayla Williams on early downs in terms of not having those inexplicable misses, you know, on speed outs or comebacks.

1:01:26that will move the chains or keep you, you know, ahead of the chains on those early downs. And that maybe you're just not winning as many games because the defense doesn't force a ridiculous amount of turnovers anymore, right? Like, and that because you're in a very competitive division, and I think that they have to play, I think that division is playing the NFC East right this year. I think you're going to see a lot of close games again. And maybe you just end up on the wrong side of, you know, some of your close game luck that you were on the right side of last season. And if you can just make the playoffs again with this unit, with this team that I think still needs to pivot at a lot of different places.

1:02:00I don't think that moving on from DJ Moore to add draft capital, I don't think that just opening up opportunities for a Colston Loveland and, you know, a Luther burden is enough for this team to get to where it wants to get to ultimately. Nor do I think that all of the, you know, money and draft capital spent on the defensive side of the ball, I don't think that any of that is enough to even out the play there either. I think that this is... I thought more like plugging holes than making the defense better. 100%. I think that, and we've talked about this with San Francisco, right? Like, you pay to paper over your draft misses.

1:02:32And this is a team that I think, you know, for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie deal, all the money that they're supposed to have to be able to go spend on luxury items is actually going to be spent trying to patch over holes on this offensive line and with this defense. And I think that really the best case scenario is just going to be that Williams is so excellent that he makes it not matter for another season. I want to talk about the Vikings next. So obviously it's the J.J. McCarthy former first-round pick. Only first-round pick, I think, ever to not play a single snap his rookie season as a quarterback.

1:03:02He got hurt in the preseason. We didn't even see the injury, but apparently he was just out the entire year. Then you enter year two. Kevin O 'Connell's changing his entire footwork going into the season and not really thrilled about it. And you kind of see immediately that this is not going to work out. And you get some Carson Wentz mixed in last year. And now Kyler Murray all of a sudden becomes available for the vet minimum. And they're saying this is going to be a competition. all the way up to the start of the season, from people I've talked to who cover the team, you immediately see who the better quarterback is.

1:03:31It's Kyler Murray. And I think it's advantageous, right, for the Vikings to say, like, this is going to be a competition to the end. But I had imagined that in closed rooms and even in these practices, it's going to feel like they're giving Murray more and more and more of the first-string reps as we get closer to the season. Because, like, even if you're buying Kyler Murray, you want to buy him on the first half of the season more so than the second half. Like, I like Murray before Grand Theft Auto comes out more than anybody. And I also think that like, you know, throw the fucking video game stuff out of for a second.

1:04:00It's like the injuries, right? He's a smaller quarterback that has battled injuries. He's going to be healthier before he plays the games than he is going to be, you know, at the halfway point of the season. And I've been saying all year that like for fantasy football purposes and even for betting purposes, I want to kind of pump and dump the Vikings because I think the first half of the season could be so much better than the second half of the season because I think that's where Kyler's at his best. And maybe we're like, they're still shocking people with like what this offense looks like. Right.

1:04:22But I think over the second half of the season, either through Kyler injuries or Kyler regression and then maybe JJ has to play more than they thought or God forbid someone else gets hurt. I think it's gonna be harder for this defense or for this team going into the playoffs to be like a red hot team. I guess that doesn't help spell out best or worst case, but I kind of, I am like kind of, I think they're more realistic thing is that they're hot in moments, maybe specifically at the start of the season and then towards the end, no one's like kind of buying them as a serious contender. What do you think, Ruiz?

1:04:45Steven Ruiz:I think it's that 2024 season, right? The one with Sam Darnold, I think, yeah, followed a similar script. My worst case scenario is that we'd never get a clear resolution to the McCarthy-Kyler thing, because I think that means Kyler is bad and not necessarily that JJ has taken some significant step forward, which I guess is a possibility. But I think the Vikings, if Kyler does struggle in any way, I think the Vikings are going to go out of their way to kind of make this first round pick happen. and they're going to give him a longer leash and give him every chance to succeed. I think that's the only reason we're seeing this quote-unquote competition, which I don't think is a competition because Kyler has become underrated in my mind.

1:05:24Steven Ruiz:I don't think he's a top 10 quarterback or even on the fringes anymore, but he's an above average quarterback who can do things and fill in some gaps that I don't think the Vikings have had recently. He's at his best in quick game to me. He's like a mini version of Aaron Rodgers, later career Aaron Rodgers, so it's not the biggest compliment. But I think Kevin O 'Connell had his best run game last year. I think if he gets a quick game situation going on and then you get the old version of Justin Jefferson back, I think there's a chance that this offense could be very good, but there's always a timeline on it because of Kyler Murray's size and the injury history.

1:05:57I think we should open some space for the fact that this offense might just be kind of like this zombified version of what Kevin O 'Connell would typically like to do with the offense versus him trying to shoehorn some of that stuff in to make it work with the Kyler Murray and how he likes to play stylistically, right? Which I think does kind of feed into some of the things that you guys are saying in terms of your concerns long-term for this season. Or if things do stagnate, maybe it is because Kyler has a hard time, you know, kind of finding himself in this style of offense. I think that Kevin O 'Connell has done an excellent job.

1:06:31I think we have enough proof now to say that, like, he can be pretty malleable, right? So I'm not saying that I believe that it's going to be a stilted effort to try to build this offense in a way that both matches what O 'Connell wants to do and what Murray is used to or most comfortable with. I'm just not so sure that it's going to be, even if Murray is clearly better than McCarthy, this plug and play. Hey, we just dropped a more talented guy into our ecosystem and it's all good. I do think that schematically we might have to kind of wrap our arms around things looking a little bit different, a lot more gun.

1:07:01You know, I think that just a different application of all their 11 personnel stuff that we may have come used to over the last few years. But to me, the best case scenario is it really is just going to be Kyler Murray is healthy. He looks like that fringe MVP level quarterback that they had, you know, that we saw in Carolina at points. And that this team is just able to sneak into the wildcard round. And I think if you can get Brian Flores and Kevin O 'Connell into a playoff environment, that to me is good enough to just say, hey, no matter how this lands, you gave yourself your best shot at being successful.

1:07:33But this team is going through a pivot now, right? Like, I felt like outside of Miami, this team was probably in the most dire straits financially with all the contracts that they had to sort out because they had to spend so much money on their defensive front seven, you know, two off seasons ago, trying to patch over some holes for misses in the draft when Kwasi Adolfo Menza was running the organization from a personnel perspective. They're still going to be dealing with that. And I think that we might see, we might really be testing the limits of you can hand Brian Flores literally anything and get a Michelin, you know, star meal out of it.

1:08:08Things could get a little tricky, I think, with this front seven.

1:08:12Steven Ruiz:That's true of KOC too, right? If Kyler struggles and then we saw J.J. McCarthy struggle. I think the floor is higher though. The offensive talent is so much better. It is so much better. That is a good point. But I do think the reputation of him as a quarterback savior will be questioned. and I do think if the defense is better or is, you know, good again, like, this should be Flores' last year as a DC. We say that every year, I guess. But one would think if he puts together another solid defense that he would get a head coaching opportunity somewhere. And if you're questioning KOC too at the same time, like, I don't know where this team goes from here, especially with the financial.

1:08:49I remember kind of previewing the Vikings going into last season. And I think I've, like, dramatically underrated what Flores could do with this personnel. And it feels like, you know, outside of the first rounder, Caleb Banks, who was dealing with his own injury stuff. We don't know what availability he's going to have at the start of the season, whatever it's going to be. Like when you read this secondary, James Pierre, free agent brought over from Philly, Josh Metellus at safety, who they paid a lot a while back, Jay Ward at free safety, Isaiah Rogers is the other opposite corner and then Byron Murphy in the slot.

1:09:14I mean, that's one of the worst on paper secondaries that you predict for a defense that could realistically finish like top six. Yeah. And like if Flores, like you're saying, delivers and this defense is like top six to eight, you know, I think the offensive line, They battled tackle injuries last year, but if Brian O 'Neal and Christian Derrissar are healthy and you have Addison, Jefferson, and they signed, I think, an underrated Jawan Jennings from the former San Francisco 49ers. He was like him in the slot. I like T.J. Hawkinson a lot, but I think they can run multiple tight ends with Josh Oliver as that number two.

1:09:44There's weapons here that work. It's going to be fascinating how they handle the... And Kyler McCarthy will kind of take so much of it, but this would be wasting very good offensive personnel if Kevin O 'Connell, McCarthy, Murray aren't able to figure it out. Okay, Lions. I'm kind of in on the Lions, just letting you guys know. I think I'm buying, if there is a dip, I think I'm buying, and one of the stats that I'm kind of parroting right now, in the first half of the season, weeks one through nine before Dan Campbell took over offensive play calling, they were like, I think, average to not below average in explosive play rate for passes and for runs.

1:10:20They went to second in the league in explosive passes and explosive plays over the second half of the season. And it wasn't that their offense was overly that much more efficient play-to-play, but Dan was able to get back into dialing up explosives and bringing Petsing in and assuming that the offensive line is not going to be as new as it was last year when they were stripping out all the starters. I know they're moving Panay Sewell from right tackle to left, but honestly, I'm more bullish on this offensive line now than I was at least last year when they were trying to get Frank Ragno to come out of retirement and then they found out he's got to torn everything.

1:10:51I don't know. I think I'm buying the offense. And then defensively, I think we can all say out loud now that Aaron Glenn wasn't driving this defense. And it's just like they need talent and they need health. But outside of Hutch, and I know they just paid Campbell big money and Aileen McNeil's really good. But you lose Terri on Arnold now. The defense I have questions about, I think offensively though, I think I'm buying the dip. Ruiz, where am I wrong?

1:11:14Steven Ruiz:I don't think you're wrong. I just think it's a house of cards on offense. like if they lose Jameer Gibbs which is a running back like we don't want to just be like oh you have to get injured of course that's worst case scenario but like a running back it's hard to rely on them for 17 games every year if they lose him I think that explosive element almost like you got to cut it in half and if Jamison Williams isn't you know doesn't take another step forward like where does the explosive plays come from I agree with you like that was the difference between when they were going good and when they weren't going good last year explosive plays but I think it was talent dependent last year especially with Gibbs.

1:11:49Steven Ruiz:Gibbs did so much for that offense. And even the passing game, you look at Jared Goff's numbers and you think this was some high-flying offense, but his ADOT in some games was like three. And it was a lot of run after catch and scheming things up. So I do think the margin for error is not that big with them. But I do think they obviously have a high four on offense. It's one of the best offensive lines in the league, I think. Mason will at left tackle. Mahogany, say what you will. He was starting last year. Cade Mays at center, coming over from Carolina, of free agent addition. I think that's a huge upgrade over who had at center last year.

1:12:21Tate Ratledge, second-year player now. Blake Miller, first-rounder at tackle out of Clemson. Then you go to the depth. Larry Borum, brought in free agency, has started games in this league. Juice Scruggs, brought over via trade from Houston, has started games in this league. Ben Bartsch, former starter for San Francisco and the Jags before that. That's three guys that have started games in the NFL that are on your bench. I think they understood how bad the offensive line was last year and specifically the lack of depth. If I'm assuming that this offensive line is like one of the four best in the league because it can maintain injury, all this stuff.

1:12:50And, you know, I'm buying, I think Petsing is a play caller and a lot of these weapons. Like maybe the offense is enough to where like if this defense is shaky to even just like bad, this is still a team that if you go into the playoffs with them, I don't know, could they win a couple? But then it comes back to like Goff and like if they go against a freaking Seattle defense, like I don't know, can Goff survive that?

1:13:08Steven Ruiz:I do think one thing we've learned like the past couple of years where there's kind of been a rejuvenation for the running back position and like the question, do running backs matter and all that, is you need a home run hitter to take full advantage of a good offensive line. And we saw that with Saquon Barkley. The difference between the Eagles last year and the year before was Saquon was hitting home runs every game. Offensive line injuries, Jeff Stoutland got upset. That whole thing, I think, ruined that offensive line. And then that didn't happen the next year. And the offense just totally changed.

1:13:36Steven Ruiz:So I think as long as Gibbs is running well and playing well, I think this offense has a very high floor. if there's any regression with him, especially in terms of home run hitting, then I think you run into problems. Damn, you're right though. Because if Gibbs, like you find out before the season that he's going to miss like six to eight weeks or something, or even like worse than that, you're like, man, I think I'm selling this entire offense. And you're not saying that about a running back and maybe 31 other teams. Yeah, I don't think so. That's interesting. Maybe Niners. But okay, let's jump to the Eagles.

1:14:04You brought up the Eagles. Deontay, kick us off. What's our best case for the chat GBT Nick Sirianni Eagles in 2020, 2026? I almost am buying the Eagles again because if everyone's kind of catching up to the jokes, then it's like, oh, damn, like maybe I don't want to sell the Eagles if everyone's selling the Eagles in 2026, 2027, and like thinking Sirianni's going to get let go and this whole AI thing's not going to work. But like, I don't know. What's the best case? Is this a Super Bowl team still? I think that this roster still has to be considered a Super Bowl quality roster, even without AJ Brown, even without Jeff Stoutland.

1:14:38I think even with the disaster that was this team's approach to offense last year, I still think you have to look at this defense and say, if Tariq Willen can just keep his head on straight, you can make an argument that outside of Houston and Seattle and Los Angeles, this will be the fourth team, I think, in the conversation of could be number one, you know, could be the number one defense in the league by season's end, right? They've checked off all their boxes there, even without an A.J. Brown. I think you look at their wide receiver room relative to the rest of the league and say, it's probably about league average.

1:15:12This is just a different world for this offense because they've gotten so accustomed to not being league average but being no worse than the third or fourth receiving core in the NFL. And I think that this all kind of dovetails into my best-case scenario, which is that the offensive line is healthy, the wide receiver room is average enough, and that this team does what it does when it contends, which is his home runs in the run game, even before Saquon got there. One of the reasons why they were so efficient in the run game was because they were able to get these light boxes because they're always spread out and you have the threat of Jalen Hurts' legs and then that was able to manufacture guys like DeAndre Swift and Miles Sanders having these, you know, just wide open, you know, high yards before contact numbers.

1:15:53I think that if this offense schematically now can do what the talent used to, this could easily I think still be an 11-win team in the NFC championship picture I think that just all of this kind of hinges on one guy and maybe this has always been the case you know and I know that it inspires a lot of debate you know amongst both us as media folks and then obviously with fan bases but this all comes back to just whether or not Jalen Hurts can actually maximize what's around him and not it be the other way around. Ruiz are you predicting give me your worst case but I also need to hear where you're predicting Hurts finishes on your quarterback rankings at the end of the season.

1:16:32And if you would say it's more likely than not that Hurts is the problem at the end of the season if things don't go where they want to in Philly. I mean, I think that's obvious.

1:16:42Steven Ruiz:Isn't that obvious that if this offense isn't good? But I think the other scenario is that the offensive line doesn't bounce back from a down year last year, especially in the run game. Because that means Sean Mannion has to be a dude. Like he has to be a significant floor raiser, which is a lot of pressure for a guy who was playing football like what four years ago yeah we're not playing but he was on a roster but i like there's a lot of like uncertainty there but i i think the other part of it is if this if like the bad vibes continue and vic fangio is like dude i don't want to do this anymore i won a super bowl a couple years ago i'm not going to become a head coach again i'm retiring i think like the whole thing falls down because i i think I think that's been Stoutland and it's been Fangio.

1:17:29Steven Ruiz:I don't want to take too much credit away from Sirianni. But those have been the pillars of this team as a championship contender. I mean, the load-bearing piece of this will still be here, which is the general manager. But I do think that from a coaching perspective, you would definitely... That, I think, would really kind of leave bare Nick Sirianni in the what exactly do you do here that adds value conversation. But the other part is I've seen some people suggest like you look at the Malik Willis stuff that the Packers did when he got in there and obviously Sean Mannion is coming from that and they could run the similar stuff with Jalen Hurts.

1:18:05Steven Ruiz:Jalen Hurts isn't that type of runner. Like Jalen Hurts isn't an explosive runner like Malik Willis. Like Malik Willis probably runs like a 4-4. Jalen Hurts I think is better at like he gets downhill and gets those extra yards and falls forward more so than a guy that's going to beat an end around the corner. Like we saw whenever they run the zone read it looks bad when it's a quarterback keeper. So I have some reservations there. I don't think it's like beyond the realm of possibility that Jalen Hurts can take to like an under center offense and they can run an offense traditionally. They don't have to get in pistol.

1:18:35Steven Ruiz:They don't have to run zone read. Like I think that's possible. But I think the more realistic situation for me, I think is that the offense is fine. And I think it's still fairly clear to see that there are limitations with Hurts, but maybe he's like averagely adjusted to what this Manion offense is in year one and the offense is fine. I think the defense could be, like you said, Deontay, one of the best if not the best in the NFL. And I think the edge group is like, you know, everyone talks about the corners, Cooper DeGene, Quinion Mitchell, like two of the best. But like, the edge group, they traded for Jonathan Grenard, which I thought was a steal for Philly.

1:19:06They signed in for agency, Arnold Nebuchadnezzar, former first or second round pick, AJ Epinesa, another former first or second round pick. They still have Nolan Smith, the former Georgia defensive end who's now rotating in, then Jalex Hunt. Like, I don't think any, like, I think Grenard is obviously the best of that group, but like, the depth and rotation at that group, I think is very strong. The secondary is good. McFangio is one of the best in the league. I think the defense is going to carry them to the playoffs no matter what almost. I think the offense isn't going to bottom out. Now, if the offense bottoms out, they're moving on from Hurts and I think they trade for Joe Burrow in 2027.

1:19:36Steven Ruiz:You get clear answers though. That's why I think they went to this style of offense because this is the style of offense that people like me and everyone else that criticized Jalen Hurts say he can't run. You're going to get a clear answer. Like we've put them in different styles of offenses now. and if they do regress back to that spread offense and they're in the gun all the time and they're running RPOs and doing stuff like that, then we could positively say, like, Jalen Hurts was the main influence over that style of offense. I mean, they added a fullback, right? They added Johnny Muntz. They added Stone Smart.

1:20:07These are like blocking tight ends. They want to run. Last year, they ran, I think, 60, 64%, 11 personnel. It was like maybe eighth highest, ninth highest in the league. I'd imagine that they want to get this fullback on the field more. I'd imagine that they want to get some of these tight ends that they brought in more. not Grant Calcaterra again, but these other guys. They drafted Eli Stowers, who I think is going to see the field with Dallas Goddard. Like, I think the more, I don't think they're going to have two receivers or three receivers on the field as much as they did last year. I think they're going to attack the middle of the field more.

1:20:33I think they're going to get under center more. I think they're going to try to have multiple tight ends more. And, you know, I think the more likely thing is like, because you have Saquon Barkley and like arguably like the best five starters along the offensive line, just read this group. Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Juergens, Tyler Steen, and Lane Johnson. Like, of all five of those guys are healthy all year, which is a big if, that's one of the most talented front fives in the league. Like, if Barkley in that front five is working and Hurts is, like you said, maybe not adjusting to it, but the offense still, like, finds a way to stay afloat, I think it's more like, like, the most likely outcome is that Hurts is on for another year, they are trying to figure out in year two, but, like, the bottom out, this offense is untenable, we have to completely change everything and not what Mannion wants.

1:21:12That's where, like I kind of said before, like, I think that's where they move on from Hurts and they trade for Joe Burrow.

1:21:17Steven Ruiz:But that's why you can't rule them out as Super Bowl contenders. Because on paper, based on last year, you think it's not going to happen. But you laid out the case. If all that is clicking, then they're going to be a top five offense with a top five defense. And that's a formula for winning the Super Bowl. And I guess they're not trading for Joe Burrow because he only wants to run shotgun shit anyway. Yeah, that's a bad tip. I don't want to belabor this, right? So we can kind of jump off of this. I know there's other teams that we need to get to. But I think that this is always why people get so hung up when you're having the Jalen Hurts conversation.

1:21:43and I'm trying to find the right way to articulate this where one of the issues is that A, play style gets judged just as much as talent does, right? Because it gives you the context that you need and I think that with Jalen, the hang up has always just been that his play style actually puts a lot on the shoulders of the other players around him, right? And it's just kind of endemic to the way that he approaches the position. He does not want to take a lot of risks with the ball, right? So that shows up in the throws in the middle of the field. that shows up in how quickly or how long he's holding on to the ball, probably more aptly.

1:22:18It shows up in his pressure to sack, you know, rate, especially, you know, early in his career. Even when things were going well in 2024, like it always felt like the second that the pocket broke down, he was either going to scramble and throw the ball away, you know, step out of bounds for a game to zero yards or he was going to end up getting sacked. And then the other thing with that is, is like, then you have to kind of contextualize that with just the style of play that you're trying to build around him. and ultimately that is why, Austin, you have to add a Johnny Munt, why you have to, I think, maybe lean on a Carson Steele to be a fullback.

1:22:49This is why I think you're going to see probably more 12 personnel, more under center, more 21 personnel in less of that 11 wide open spread out offense that's run four verts on fourth down with the game on the line, you know, type of approach. It's just going, that is the only way I think in this modern iteration of football when defenses have reacted much better to the spread and have the personnel to handle it now, that if you have a quarterback that plays the way that Hurts does, the best thing you can do is try to take the ball out of his hands, condense the game, and not ask him to have to work through as much.

1:23:23And that does make it thorny. That makes it almost more high variance than the way they were playing before. Because this means that the few times that he is in these obvious passing situations, we are going to be judging him even harder, you know, because the volume is going to be low and the stakes are going to be higher on his passes, I think, this year. So we are going, I think, to walk away from 2026 with a very clear idea of where he stands in the quarterback hierarchy. I think we could argue that December 8th, we walked out of it with a clear idea when they played the Chargers and he threw four picks and he looked like complete shit against Jesse Minter's defense.

1:23:53I think that's when Eagles fans and national media in general were like, whoa, there's no reason our quarterback should ever look this bad. And now it's getting louder. and I think that you know like you brought up like well his style of offense like it doesn't like it actually puts a lot of the burden on the other players on the team and maybe even the play caller and blah blah blah and then you try to I imagine you try to bring it up to him and he's like trust the process rent is due every day and it's like okay Russell Wilson fucking it's cool when we're winning but when we're not I'm getting a little upset because I need you to be like real and like tell me like actually what we need to change rather than kind of like you know we're on to the next one or whatever the fuck it is whatever the next like little thing is going to be can we talk Giants?

1:24:31Let's do it. Let's talk Giants. I was going to go Cowboys next, but I want to go to Giants because I need you guys, I need Deontay, I need you to tell me why I'm wrong. I could not be fading the Giants harder in 2026. I'm not buying them at all. What is the actual best case for this? I guess it's like what we thought, I think the immediate hours after they got Harbaugh, I think all of us were like, holy shit, finally, an adult in the room, floor raiser for a team that's come in, complete dog shit for a while, and they need to be competitive. Like Heifetz, Danny Heifetz, host of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, longtime Giants fan, And he always brings up like the last 10 years or so, every time he gets to Thanksgiving, which the Giants play a lot on, like they're out of playoff contention.

1:25:08Like every time his family gets together to watch the Giants on this big TV, they're already, they've already out. And I think when Harbaugh was hired initially, Heifetz and other Giants fans were like, okay, we're not going to be dog shit by Thanksgiving, but I think you're going to have like maybe four or five wins by Thanksgiving and be maybe missing out on the playoffs. That's what I think ends up happening, at least in year one of the Harbaugh experience. I guess, Deontay, tell me the best case and is it much better than that? I hope it is. I think the best case scenario is that Juju Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr.

1:25:36never have to log a snap because that means that Malik Neighbors is healthy by the start of the season. I think that that is the best case scenario. And then with that, you're able to craft a passable offense. I have a hard time wrapping my head around what this offense is supposed to look like. A Matt Nahe offense to begin with and then you're talking about this wide receiver core around a quarterback that does not work with the same level of dexterity, quickness, high levels of understanding of how defenses are trying to play you the way that Nagy is used to with dealing with Patrick Mahomes for the last few years and the ways in which we've seen him struggle when he was dealing with a similar quarterback in Chicago in Mitch Chubisky.

1:26:16It's what we've seen in Jackson Dart, a guy who does want to kind of pat the ball in the pocket, who does want to roll out, who does want to extend. There are ways in which this offense needs it, but the guy that has done it to the best of his ability happens to be the greatest human being that has ever played quarterback before, in my opinion. I just can't envision, unless these guys are perfectly healthy and you do get something out of the running game, which I still am kind of dubious about, unless it's going to be led by Jackson Dart, which I think kind of bumps up against some of the ways in which they're trying to preserve his body.

1:26:48I think any best case scenario is going to have to be separate from the offense outside of neighbors getting healthy. And maybe it's just that the combination of Arvo Reese, Brian Burns, you know, and all the guys they have in their front four or front seven overall are able to just wreak havoc. And that ends up being the way in which they can play spoiler in the NFC East.

1:27:07Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be any more optimistic. Obviously, my job was to come up with the most pessimistic take. And I think that's easy to do, just not only for the reasons that Yante just laid out, but even John Harbaugh, I don't think it's some guaranteed floor raiser. Baltimore was a poorly coached team last year. ask their ask their owner when he did that meeting when he's they were like would Harbaugh have survived if they made that kick and he's like another week he was done they were done they were done with him it was too many penalties blown coverages over the past couple years the special teams wasn't even good which is supposed to be Harbaugh's thing and like go back to pre-Lamar he was already on the hot seat they get Lamar and Lamar kind of fixes everything there's another lull because he doesn't want to move on from Greg Roman because he's friends with him Who's Greg Roman coaching for now?

1:27:54Steven Ruiz:It's the Giants Oh, the Giants He's on the Giants Cool, cool, cool And then Mike McDonald comes in And turns that into a championship level defense And once he leaves That falls off immediately Like the Ravens being a good title contender Of the last I guess going back to 2018 Has been based around Lamar Who's won two MVPs And Mike McDonald Who's the best defensive coach in the NFL And immediately won a Super Bowl Once he got out of Baltimore And away from Harbaugh So I don't think this is an improvement over the last coaching staff, or at least I need to see it first before I believe it. It's been a long time since I've been able to point to John Harbaugh and be like, he is a great NFL head coach.

1:28:32I think if you, would you rather have John Harbaugh or Jim Harbaugh? It's not even close, it's Jim. Would you, would you like, I think thinking about Harbaugh and this coaching staff, you know, when they signed on the same day, Juju Smith-Schuster, Braxton Berrios, and Odell Beckham Jr., I said, that might be a sell signal. When you sign those three guys and Malik Nabors sounds like it's hurt. I think this receiving core could be really ugly to start the season.

1:28:58Steven Ruiz:It's fitting because the last time Harbaugh was good was 2017 as a head coach. I think the offense, for widely understood reasons with the receiving core and the concern around Malik Nabors, their former first-round pick, not being healthy at the start of the season, I think could be bad. I think the offense, because it's legit brand new, we're assembling a team. It's Greg Roman, Brian Callahan, and fucking Matt Nagy. three guys that like if you said were attached to your offense in 2027, 2028 everyone would be like ah, I'm scared I'm nervous I don't think we can do it and then that's commitment to his guys he's bringing back Roman he's bringing back his boys then you tell me Isaiah likely got signed to this team to some big ass deal and Patrick Card's on this team and it's like hmm I'm not liking the smell of this Bo is doing flips coming off the leg I'm not liking the whiff I'm getting from this and it sounds like a guy who's like going to die with his guys and I think year one is going to be probably a mess.

1:29:50It's going to be a mess offensively. And like, that's if, we haven't even talked about the talent of the actual players on this roster. I think the staff alone and the construction of the roster is like, it makes me bearish overall. And then like, what if Dart has a sophomore slump like every other fucking quarterback every year? What if, you know, I think the defense is the only thing that I think you can build a best case around. Like this front seven, Shelby Harris, DJ Reader, Lucky Foto on the bench, Roy Robertson Harrison on the bench. And you have defense fans, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, linebackers, Jermaine Edmonds, they bring in, they got over.

1:30:19Like this front seven should be insane. The defense should be top six, top eight in the league. Offensively, I could see this being dog shit and the blame pie just getting thrown. Greg Roman gets a little taste. Callahan gets a mix. Dart for a week. Scadabo for a week. Isaiah likely for a drop. Like they're going to be throwing this and it's not going to be Harbaugh. It's not going to be Harbaugh, which it's an interesting situation with the whole Joe Shane of it all too. Like you said, you had him on Cuckwatch, I think, Stephen. This is a weird leadership group. It's a weird coaching staff. It's an awkward roster.

1:30:51Steven Ruiz:And Harbaugh never built a team too. I know they're basically giving him full roster control, essentially. But he wasn't the guy building those Ravens teams. Ravens had a firmly entrenched front office setup going back to 1996 with Ozzie Newsome and then Eric DaCosta. They hired him like he is both John Harbaugh and Ozzie Newsome. If the Giants instead of Harbaugh hired Joe Brady, are you more excited for this offense? I'm still not. I'm more excited. What about Stefanski? No. This is not a good roster. This is not a good roster. And the bodies that they brought in... The bodies that they brought in weren't guys that you had to go shove Joe Shane into a locker to go get.

1:31:37True. I like Isaiah Likely. I actually think that in a lot of ways him being able to break out as a tight end one is a good look for him. But God, I look at what else he's playing around and I don't know if this is the best situation for him. And if I'm Malik Neighbors, man, like there's nobody on this roster that is going to draw any gravity away from me. So it's going to be a lot of cover two and quarters every week and me having to fight through two sets of eyes and two sets of hands to get my targets. Commanders, I have weirdest case, Jaden Daniels plays as well as Geno Smith with the Raiders last year.

1:32:10fully healthy for 17 games. Fans and media consensus completely fall off and it's an RG3 situation all over again. Not with the injuries, but actually where you're like, but why I presented it as weirdest case and I'll start with you, Deontay, and I know we got to go quick, but like I presented it as weirdest case because I think everyone is buying Jaden Daniels this year. I think everyone's like, yeah, it should be better this year. Do you agree? I kind of do. I don't know the degree to which it's going to impact winning because I just don't think that he's surrounded by a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

1:32:40Right like my best case my best case with the commanders really doesn't have much to do with the offense outside of jayden daniels being healthy I think it's more so my focus is more so on durante jones Being you know kind of the first big branch off the brian flores tree That's a big hit right and like he's able to bring in that very attacking style of defense with all the money And draft resources spent to kind of fix his front seven Which has been getting bowled over basically every year the danquin has been there And actually getting some guys in who can help in the right kind of scheme and they're able to I guess be a 6-11, 7-10 team that plays good defense and has an exciting young quarterback I'm not really thinking about the playoffs at all with this team until they address the other side of the ball though.

1:33:21Steven Ruiz:I'm not so sure we're going to get a true bounce back season for Daniels just because we have a new offensive coordinator and I think Cliff did a lot of good things for him for highlighting the strengths and kind of mitigating his weaknesses and it's kind of similar to the conversation we had about Jalen Hurts whether he's going to fit in David Blow's offense so it's a wait and situation for me. I think he's a talented quarterback, but I think we saw more accuracy problems last year than we probably expected after his first year. So, I think the worst case scenario for them is that there's an awkward relationship between him and the new offensive coordinator and then Dan Quinn's defense does what Dan Quinn's defenses have done for the last decade.

1:33:59Always do. I do think it's a way... I think the roster construction, I think I would imagine how ownership is looking at this team in 2026, is that the offense is in wait-and-see mode. We don't know what David Blau is at all. We still need better weapons than fucking Traylon Burks for J.D. Daniels to ever be a Super Bowl caliber threat. Defensively, I think this roster was built like Dan Quinn's coaching for his job because they added like nine new starters. Tim Settle, Odafe Owe, Leo Chennault, Sonny Styles, Caleb on chase on Nick Cross, Amik Robertson, Amanda who's going to get snaps, Akela Witherspoon I bet gets snaps.

1:34:33They signed so many guys, and I think so much of it was like Dan knows that if his defense sucks, he's done. And those are Dan Quinn guys. Those are Dan Quinn guys, right? Like you brought up Durante, I think it's, sorry, yeah, Durante Jones. But like Dan is dying with his defense if it dies. And I think that, I think when I saw how much they were attacking in free agency on defense, it's like, holy shit, I think he's got the call. Like that you need to make a play. Okay. Deontay, start his best case for Cowboys. Christian Parker is what we've been hearing that he's been since he was in Denver.

1:35:02And he has an elite defensive play caller. And that in combination with another high-level year from Dak Prescott gets this team, I guess, past the divisional round, right? Like, I don't want to be silly here and say that they're just automatically going to be an NFC championship-level team, but I think that the roster with the coaching at its best can get you to the divisional round or at least get you a shot maybe to make the Final Four in the tournament. The Cowboys are confidently, I'm happy you said that, because for me, I'm confidently my favorite team in this division and I think my favorite bet to win the NFC.

1:35:36I like the Cowboys a lot offensively with how much they're returning. I think their offensive line is fantastic. And I think Schottenheimer approved a lot of people last year. What was the quote from Jerry Jones? This ain't Brian Schottenheimer anymore. He's the head coach of the Cowboys or something like that. I feel like we made fun of him but Schottenheimer kind of cooked. And then DC side, like, did Jerry Jones win the Micah Parsons trade? It's a little too early to say that.

1:35:58Steven Ruiz:It's a little too early but I think it's something we could be writing in December. Can I give you a stat? Because I feel like they have so much room to grow on defense that even if Christian Parker is just average, I think they're going to be a much better team. They were 32nd in explosive plays allowed last year based on rate. If you take out the explosive passes and you just focus on their runs, the explosive runs they came... They gave up an explosive run on 11 % of the runs they defended. That alone... That alone... You add in passes, explosive passes for all other 31 teams, they still would rank below average.

1:36:30Steven Ruiz:So if you could only run the football against the Cowboys, they would still have a below average explosive play allowed rate. It can't get worse than that. Adding Caleb Downs. I think the D winners trade with San Francisco was a steal. I think winners are a great starter at linebacker. I'm excited for the Cowboys in 2026, 2027. All right, take a break. NFC South quickly and then we're blitzing out of here. Somewhere out there is a Chevy truck and the person who drives it, well, that's a Chevy person. You probably know one, your buddy, your sister, ones who always show up They're the first to rise, the last to leave.

1:37:04Steven Ruiz:They always have that little extra something, and maybe you've got it too. Chevrolet, together let's drive. Visit chevy.com slash trucks to explore the lineup.

1:37:18I want to start with the Falcons. I think that I had weirdest case, whatever season they're actually about to have. because I feel like this season is going to be a shit show of awkwardness. Everyone's talked about the Tua Tunga-Vailoa versus Michael Penix thing. I think both will play this year either due to injury or someone not playing well. And I think correct me if I'm wrong, Ruiz. Their styles of play are like diametrically opposed. Like I don't think that they fit in the same styles of offense. No, yeah, that makes sense. At least maybe not schematic at least from an aggression standpoint.

1:37:55And that to me I feel like is why I feel like I think Penix wins this job and it's something that Stefanski's more excited about. And then if they do get to this worst-case scenario or Penix has another injury, Tua playing is not going to be a fit for this offense. He was barely fit for the last offense he was in. I don't know. I think this is going to be a weird, bad season for Atlanta despite all the talent.

1:38:15Steven Ruiz:The common denominator between the two is they don't create out of structure. And then, like you said, they're polar opposites. So I feel like it will be easy to go back and forth because Stefanski is like, oh, Tua didn't make this throw. And then, oh, Penix missed this throw because he's not accurate. But I think the worst-case scenario is Tua wins the job, and then he's kind of good. He's not good where, oh, yeah, we're going to build around him, but he's good enough where fans are like, maybe we should bring him back next year. And then you're kicking the can down the road when replacing the quarterback.

1:38:42Steven Ruiz:That's worst-case scenario. And I think it's possible just because the offensive pieces are good, and I think Stephance is a good coach. Best-case scenario is that none of it matters, man. They're going to go 9-8 and win this division. That's really it. It's going to be very weird. It's going to be extremely awkward. we're going to see both quarterbacks. We might see three, right? If it's neither of their two guys that are involved in this competition are, you know, beacons of health, you know, throughout an NFL season. And it's just not going to matter. They're going to fall backwards because they've got enough defensive talent and enough playmaking talent around their quarterback situation to be able to squeeze out, you know, in a above 500 season.

1:39:17Yeah, you're probably right. Saints, are we buying the shuck? Do you have shuck stock? Are we shuck boys? Are you guys mother shuckers? Are you guys shucking it up next year? or is there a sophomore slump? Deontay, you kick us off. Are we shuckled? Are you shuckling? What? Shuckled? No, don't say that. Don't say shuckled. Oh, Jesus. All right. Best case scenario for me is that, you know, Tyler Shuck takes another step forward. I think that adding someone like Jordan Tyson, who hopefully stays healthy, allows him to access more explosive passes. Right? I think that might be the one thing from this offense that kind of left me wanting a bit is Shuck actually showed that he was a little bit more for pushing in the pocket than maybe I thought he was on first impression.

1:39:58But they really weren't pushing the ball downfield a whole bunch. And maybe, you know, you get Kellen Moore year two, can't call him a young quarterback, but second year quarterback, gets more comfortable with the scheme, understands where the chances are that he can take. They added some speed this offseason, and he's able to push the ball downfield more. I wouldn't imagine them winning the NFC South because that would be the only pathway to make the playoffs for them. But I think they can hang around seven or eight wins again.

1:40:21Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I think Chuck was better than I expected last year but there still are some red flags that are hard to get over. Downfield accuracy is one of them, but that could have been a sample size thing. And then evading pressure, like he had one of the higher pressure to sack rates. And that interior line has a chance to be bad. Like if Eric McCoy's injuries continue, I think that interior line's going to be bad. I think their tackles are solid, but if he struggles to deal with that interior pressure, I think that can bring down the whole offense. I think the defense will be good again, though. I worry a little bit with injuries at receiver.

1:40:51Tyson, their first round pick out of Arizona State, Obviously, that was one of the knocks on him coming out. And then Chris Olave has battled injuries. It feels like he's getting in a car accident on the field every single week. He gets hit so hard, I feel like. I think it would be shocking to see him play 20 games en route to a deep playoff run or something like that. Defensively, I wanted to raise this. I know we're on time, but real quick. Odds, Deontay, that Brandon Staley has this defense top 10 in the league. Is there any chance of Staley getting back on track and grabbing the reins a little bit?

1:41:22I think there's a legit shot. Some of the stuff they were doing last year wasn't Mickey Mouse bullshit. They just played sound defense and got a decent, a better pass rush than I expected out of their front four. I think that it is possible that Staley maybe never touches, never gets to touch what it was in 2020 in Los Angeles. But I do think that he might just be an above average defensive play caller. And if you continue to add talent around him, that'll make it happen. And this is talent that he never had in Los Angeles. That's exciting. All right, Panthers. important news going into the Carolina thing obviously you're a resident Panthers fan I think there's like eight total in the world Ruiz is one of them like a half a one too all pound all of them pounding together yeah the news is Taylor Moton will miss the start of the season I think it was like blood clots yeah that's their left tackle oh no right tackle right tackle and then Iki Iquano former first round pick who would be slated to start at left tackle I think is still going through an injury what I wrote down is they have Rasheed Walker who they got for one year 10 mil who's been a four-year starter at left tackle for the Packers.

1:42:22And then they have Monroe Freeling, the Georgia offense tackle. Like, for a team that's going into the season without their two top tackles, Steven, maybe the best backup plan ever with Rasheed Walker and Monroe Freeling. Like, that would normally, I think, cripple some... I mean, the Saints? You just mentioned, like, Talese Fulwaga and... I'm blanking on his name now. Banks. Oh, Kelvin Banks. Like, those guys go down. This team is done. But, like, Carolina surprisingly kind of prepared for maybe not having Moton or Icky to start the season. I'm overall like liking a bet on them maybe plus 240 plus 250 to make the playoffs I think that like the Panthers stink is so loud that we really want I mean sometimes rooting rooting against them and just think they're always a bad team but I don't know I feel like there's some pieces here that I like

1:43:04Steven Ruiz:no I think they're going to be fine like my floor my absolute floor for them is five wins which I think is an improvement over the last couple years but I think my concerns about the defense and all the additions in the offseason if they don't move the needle significantly and this is a bad defense again because I think people have high hopes because there is talent on paper. And then the offense, I think, is going to be fine. I think it's going to be within the same range as last year. But that could be worst-case scenario if they do somehow win this division again and the division stinks and you still haven't had any answers on Bryce Young and you kind of have to pay him next offseason.

1:43:35Steven Ruiz:I think that's worst-case scenario for them. I think best-case scenario is obviously Bryce Young takes a step forward and they can build around him. But I don't think Bryce Young falls flat on his face and they get a clear answer and they can move on and start to look for their next quarterback is a bad outcome either. Yeah, I think best case scenario is just that Bryce Young is good enough to get them back into the playoffs. I think the good thing for them is that they actually don't have their backs against the wall the same way that some of these other teams that kind of have these quarterbacks who are in between or coming towards the end of their contracts are at.

1:44:02I don't think that we've seen any play from Bryce Young that would merit him going in and asking for more than, I guess, what Sam Darnold got on this past deal in Seattle, right? And if you're telling me you're paying$100 million over three years or whatever the number was, I think that you can live with that if that's your starting quarterback, assuming that they want to keep Bryce Young. And if not, I actually think this team is very well situated, if it wanted to, to be able to make a pivot and go see if he can go spend on getting another veteran in to kind of play behind this run first and improving defense type of approach that they've had with Dave Canales.

1:44:34Steven Ruiz:He was actually the 98th best player in the league last year, according to players. Thank you very much. I think some of that too, I guess from what I've heard, it sounds like Bryce is like a gamer. It sounds like he's that guy that like you feel like you want on your team, even though he's shorter and maybe not. This feels like code for not a very good football player. I've heard a lot about off the field. He does a lot of the little things right. Not in a corny way, but in a smart leadership kind of way. I mean, fuck it. This guy's been through as much adversity as anybody in the world. In the world?

1:45:06Not in the world. Not in the world. Maybe in the NFL. Definitely not the world. Excuse me. But just thinking back to his rookie season, they trade up for the number one overall pick or they don't go on Stroud. He looks like the shortest person that has ever played the position. Looks like shit. Gets benched. Andy Dalton gets in a car accident so he gets this chance to play again and now the only reason he's playing this position is because of that accident. I think they were trying to give up on him. The fact that he was literally given up on and now where he is now, I do think it's a crazy comeback.

1:45:40Now look at him.

1:45:41Steven Ruiz:He's averaging 170 yards per game. Maybe not the most adversity ever. The most adversity in the world. Goodness. Let's pull back on that. Last team, Tampa Bay Bucs. I have weirdest case, PFF underscore Zach Robinson leads Baker Mayfield to an MVP season. Tell me why I'm wrong. I feel like best case, worst case, and weird case are all weird, honestly. I don't know what to do with the Bucs. When I was mentioning teams that are genuinely stuck in purgatory right now, the Bucs feel like example number one for me because I don't think there's anything they can do to make themselves contenders. And I actually think they have actually stocked themselves with just enough depth and above-average quality play across the board, and they're too deep, that they won't bottom out and be some 3-14 surprise bad team.

1:46:29Best-case scenario is that they just look something closer to what they were two, three years ago when you could kind of book them to just dominate the NFC South because they do have depth and quality talent that the rest of the teams in the division just can't match up with. They go into the playoffs as an 11-6 team and are cannon fodder for the Seahawks or Rams, but they can tell themselves that they had another successful season, and you get to extend Baker Mayfield, hopefully, for something less than$52 -$53 million per year, which feels like long odds now.

1:46:57Steven Ruiz:Yeah, the problem with the extension is Baker Mayfield wants a longer contract. I think they would pay him$60 million a year, but I think he wants it over a long term, and they don't want to give it to him, and rightfully so, because this guy gets hurt, and his style, like he needs to play that style to get the most out of him. He led the league in Scramble EPA last year. He's not a math changer as a quarterback, despite how much of a maverick he plays like. Yeah, and that's the problem. It's an odd match between style of play and actual production and impact on the field. Yeah, but my worst case scenario is a repeat of last year.

1:47:28Steven Ruiz:You get those high highs, low lows, but you haven't taken a meaningful step forward as a team. I think a best case scenario, and I view how they approach the offseason and kind of similar to Washington in that you have a defensive-minded head coach that knows that the defense needs to be better. And they added a ton of bodies, right? Maybe not starters, but bodies in free agency. They also spent their first-round pick and second-round pick on the defense side of the ball. Guys that could be starters, Josiah Trotter at linebacker, and then Reuben Bain, who a lot of people I felt like thought was a steal at the position that they got him in.

1:47:56But like, best case is Bowles is as good as like the top six to eight defense coordinator. Like he needs to have a big season. Yeah. Because when you look at the offensive play callers that have left under his tenure. Liam Cohen, arguably one of the most coveted offensive play callers in the league now. Dave Canales, who's making it look like Bryce Young didn't suffer so much adversity. And then, I mean, if Zach Robinson, say this offense looks good and everything's kind of clicking, it's like, if Zach Robinson makes this offense look good, he's going to be hired for a freaking head coaching job next year.

1:48:29The Bulls conundrum of like, and it's not even necessarily his fault, but having to hire a new offensive play caller essentially every year. I mean, it's like an unwinnable place unless as a defensive play caller, which I don't think this is where Bulls has been, you are on the cutting edge, like Mike McDonald, like Jesse Minter, etc. I think that there's, you know, Aaron Glenn is probably the most likely first coach fired in the NFL this year, but I mean, Bulls, if this defense stinks, I don't know. I think that's another name I'm thinking about.

1:48:58Steven Ruiz:And if you're the Bucs, it would make sense to maybe we get rid of Bulls and we let Robinson do the interim thing and then maybe we hire him if it looks good. And if it looks good and if it doesn't we're hopefully maybe they're looking at quarterback who knows Thanks to my guys dude Deontay Lee Steven Ruiz this has been Austin Gale Shout out to the producers Conor Nevins Arjuna Ramgapal Christopher Sutton CSUT This has been Austin Gale Ringer NFL Show

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