Stats That Matter After the First Month of the NFL Season

0:00Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we are talking about the numbers that explain the NFL after one month. And we've got my friend from the Ringer, Austin Gayle here. Austin, we've had many great conversations off mic in the past. I don't think any of them have been limited to like around 30 minutes. So I am a little concerned for you. What do you think? Are you up for the challenge today? Definitely. I talk fast. I think we can move through things pretty quickly. I'll try to keep it short. That's right. Austin, you know, don't be listening to this one on two times speed.

0:31If you're one of those Ringer NFL listeners out here, just normal speed, relax, take it all in because Austin has some awesome nuggets that we're going to go over in this episode. All right, let's take a quick break. When we come back, we talk about the numbers that explain the NFL so far this season.

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2:54Austin Gayle:All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. So Austin, biggest news item in the NFL today, the Cleveland Browns make a quarterback change, benching Joe Flacco, going to the rookie Dylan Gabriel, our second quarterback benching of this season. What is the number? What is the analytical case for this move from the Browns perspective? What do you think? What's funny is I don't know necessarily if you need an analytical case to bench Joe Flacco, just given how he's played. He's got eight turnovers this year. That's not a big number. But I was writing about Deshaun Watson or tweeting about Deshaun Watson a lot last year, saying, oh my gosh, it's the worst start for Browns quarterback in franchise history by EPA, by dropback, by success rate.

3:35Joe Flacco has been worse. He's averaging negative 0.32 EPA per dropback. Worst of any Browns quarterback in weeks one through four this millennium. Yes, worse than Deshaun Watson's disaster class last year. I think that the other interesting wrinkle here is how bad he's been just on both sides in when he's pressured and when he's not pressured, but when not pressured this year, and everyone's talking about Brown's offensive line, they're battling injuries, both tackles are hurt. When not pressured this year, he has a 40 % drop back success rate. That's lowest in the league by over 4%. He has been unplayable, absolutely unplayable.

4:10I'm not surprised that they went to Dylan Gabriel this week.

4:13Austin Gayle:Yeah, you know, you look at it and certainly early in the season, it felt like he had some bad luck. Some of those interceptions, you're like, those aren't on on him. Come on. Is this a great supporting cast? And I do think we have to consider what's this season even about for the Browns? You know, they took a bunch of dart throws at quarterback Joe Flacco. He's out. Can he pick it out? You know, now Dylan Gabriel and Shador Sanders, presumably the rest of the way. And I think you're one in three. You have a bottom three offense with Flacco. Now you move on to the, Hey, let's do some information gathering on Dylan Gabriel.

4:45Austin Gayle:I'm sure in their heads. They thought, Hey, we got a good defense. Maybe we sneak out a win or two early in the season. And if you're 500, uh, you know, maybe you're not making the move, even if you just win one more game, but now they have to look ahead. Cause this is a team. Remember, it's not just about this season. They've got Jacksonville's first round pick next year. So they've got their own, they've got Jacksonville's and they need a quarterback. So it's like, all right, get some information on Gabriel, see what he looks like in this offense, figure out what's your off season and plan going to be.

5:15Austin Gayle:And I think that's why they made this move. Now, what are your expectations? Because you made the point. They sucked with Watson. You know, they sucked with their other quarterbacks last year. They sucked with Flacco this year. The other variables haven't changed that much, Allison. I mean, the offensive line is worse, but it's like Kevin Stefanski, the wide receivers. At some point, it's just like, is this just a bad situation for a quarterback or could a average quarterback lift up this group a little bit? It's obviously a bad situation. Jack Conklin, the right tackle, he's missed their last three games.

5:44You don't know how long he's going to be out. DeJuan Jones, their left tackle, he's out for the season. They just traded for a Texans backup tackle. We know how bad that Texans offensive line has been all year. Imagine Gil getting a backup tackle. That's not where you want to be. It's not a great situation, but I think where the problems have been with Flacco, just looking at more of these numbers, he's bottom three in EPA per drop back when pressured. He's only completed 39 % of his passes when pressured this year. When you move him off the spot, so looking at out of pocket, He is the lowest ranked quarterback in EPA for dropback when moving out of pocket as well.

6:15He has really struggled when the pressure's on. And I think the Cleveland Browns know when trading for Cam Robinson that this is not going to be an offense where you can have a statue back there at quarterback. Dylan Gabriel, he's very short, but also spry. I was looking back through Tom McShay's analysis of him. He kind of compared him to a Tua Tungavailoa light in terms of him getting out the ball quickly, being accurate with the football. I was talking to my buddy Mike Grenner, a draft analyst at CBS Sports. He was trying to convince me he should have gone in the third round. He thinks he's a starter.

6:41So I do think that they are confident in Dylan Gabriel just being able to execute the offense quickly and handle pressure better. And I want to go back to something you said. This isn't a good defense. It's a great defense. Like this Browns defense is reminiscent of what they were in 2023. This isn't what the defense was last year. Myles Garrett, obviously a force multiplier. Jim Schwartz being there, he continues to be well. They are averaging, opponents are averaging 19.4 yards per drive against the Browns defense. That's the best in the league by almost five yards. They went second in defensive success rate.

7:11Like this is one of the best defenses in the league. I think that's part of the reason why they're making this decision. I think some of it is tackles are banged up. They're going to be more pressure. They need someone who can handle that and get the ball out quickly. And I think the other part of this, they just don't want to waste such a good defense right now. Yeah, and in that division, with the way things are going for the other teams, is that you can kind of talk yourself into, hey, if we can get average quarterback play, can we at least be in the mix here in December? So we'll see what that looks like.

7:37I mean, I've done the work on just like what an average rookie season looks like. An average rookie typically performs like the 25th or 26th best starter in the NFL. Now, obviously, there's variance there. And he was good in the preseason. I don't want to put too much stock in the preseason. But at the very least, and I went to some Eagles-Browns joint practices, it was like, he knows what he's doing. Like, he is grasping the offense. He doesn't look lost out there. Can he just be kind of a point guard, get rid of the football, be a little bit better under pressure? When you were mentioning Flacco, I was thinking, he must think like, man, When I came into the league, like I was what a quarterback was supposed to look like.

8:12And now when my career is ending, nobody plays like me. You're like, you can't, you almost can't play in the league. If you have his lack of athleticism right now, what a, you know, he's kind of spanned the different eras here. No, absolutely. I think some of those out of pocket stuff, right. I feel like quarterbacks now need to be able to handle pressure better, but also like just need to be able to create plays with their feet. And Joe Flacco wasn't that, but Joe Flacco used to be, you know, this big arm quarterback accurate down the football field. He's one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league, throwing 10 plus yards downfield.

8:40He's bottom five in success rate, throwing 20 plus yards downfield. He's four of 19 with three picks and no touchdowns. Like he is not, you know, Dylan Gabriel is not a great downfield thrower. He's not this like rocket arm quarterback. But Joe Flacco is not adding that for this offense. And you could say some of that is the supporting cast. But I don't know. I kind of like this skill group. I think they've gotten good play out of Quinchon Judkins. I think he's averaging 4.8 yards per carry. They're two tight ends in Njoku and the rookie Harold Fannin seems solid. Jerry Judy is still something like there are pieces here.

9:06your buddy Ben Solak I saw him tweet out after the news that he thinks they could go 500 rest of the season with Dylan Gabriel I think that's a testament to how good this defense is how good some of these skill players are it's not as simple as like oh my gosh like this is an untenable situation any quarterback playing here is going to struggle I really do think they're going to get better play out of Dylan Gabriel offensively and I think it's going to use that defense a lot more all right settle down Solak 500 up I'll send him a text after we're done recording I don't know about that. Settle down.

9:34All right. What's the next one? So we got to the Browns. What is the next number that you feel like is a good reflection or an interesting number from the first month of the season? I feel like it doesn't really explain the season as much as it explains kind of my heartbreak as a longtime Raiders fan, an Oakland Raiders fan that has followed the team to Las Vegas. I've said that if they change the jerseys or the name, I might abandon ship, but I have to stick with them even going to Las Vegas. But this is Ask John Gentry, who had a big game against Chicago, best game of his career, obviously over 170 yards rushing.

10:03He has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 66 % of his runs. Highest rate in the league. He's second to last in yards before first contact per attempt. Yet he's fourth in the league in yards after contact per attempt. Second in the league in total force missed tackles and tied for second in runs of 10 plus yards. What he's doing, and you want to talk about untenable situations, like what he's doing behind this Raiders offensive line that we can get to later and how Pete shook it up and all this stuff. Like what he's doing behind this offensive line with a passing game that has struggled since week one after playing the Patriots.

10:33Gino Smith looks blind out there. He's got seven picks most on the year. Oh my God. I, you know, Danny Heifetz of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show has this running joke how he'd rather have Cam Scadaboo over Ashton Gentry. I think he's absolutely asinine and crazy. Gentry looks the part of the of like the kind of player that you draft in the top five, top ten. He's second behind B. John Robinson in four Smith's tackles this year. He's just playing in an all-time bad situation that I don't think you really get the value of Gentry until he's playing behind a better offensive line. But I think it's just insane that the Raiders, after last year, having one of the worst rushing offenses of this millennium, didn't really change anything along the offensive line, and now are running into the same issues with Ashton Gentry.

11:11I will buy everyone's Ashton Gentry stock. I mean, I thought last week, like it's the old, it's like the alien test. Last week, I thought if you were watching that Raiders Bears game and you're just like, who are the best? You'd be like Max Crossby. He definitely looked like one of the best, but offensively, like Gentty looked better

11:27Austin Gayle:than everyone else on the field when he, he just needs a little, like he doesn't need elite blocking. It was so clear that when he gets a little bit of room or there's an opportunity to get skinny in the hole and make a guy miss or break a tackle. He was doing that over and over and over again. He was doing it as a receiver. He was doing it as a rusher. I thought he looked awesome last week and it took it, you know, it took a couple of games to your point, it's not his fault. And, you know, I was even filtering more for running backs who have had at least 50 carries, Austin. I'd looked at the same numbers you did.

11:58And I was looking at yards before contact running backs with at least 50 carries. If you look at the last 10 years, this is the lowest yards before contact of any back in the last 10 years. That's 660 running back.

12:11Austin Gayle:That's how bad it is. I mean, that's bad. 660 out of 660. It's almost to the point where it cannot stay this bad. Like it's never stayed this bad for a running back. So yeah, I'm bullish on him. He's doing all this stuff you feel like it's always hard to control, you know, a running back situation. What do they do? What's the situation? The stuff he can control, I feel like it's really good, but you're right about the offensive line. Now you're a Raiders fan, so I'm sure you've been on like a Reddit or whatever. What is going on with Pete Carroll's son has become a target there. And it's like, they're switching guys.

12:43Austin Gayle:Give me the gossip on the Raiders offensive line because we have not gone over this on the Ringer NFL show. I just want to say the last time Pete Carroll and his son, the offensive line coach, worked together was with those early teens Seattle Seahawks offensive lines, those ones that were bottom in the league by pretty much every metric, highest pressure rate allowed by any metric. That's the other thing, too. It's not just in the run game. Gino Smith is under pressure, I think, at the second highest rate of any quarterback in the league. And you said maybe it gets better. Colt Miller, their left tackle, their best offensive lineman by a country mile is now on the inter-reserve with a high ankle sprain.

13:16It's going to get worse. They brought in Stone Forsythe, who's not been with the team, brought in in the offseason. He's going to be that swing tackle at left tackle. This is going to get worse. It's going to get ugly behind this offensive line. I think the other piece that everyone's talking about now is last year, Jordan Meredith, who's now the center, was playing left guard. Dylan Parham was playing right guard, and Jackson Powers Johnson, the rookie from last year, now second year player out of Oregon, was playing center. They completely flipped it. Dylan Parham's now playing left guard, Jordan Meredith is playing center, and Jackson Powers-Johnson is in a competition with veteran Alex Kappa to play at right guard.

13:46And then they have DJ Glaze, the right tackle who, God bless his heart, but not the athlete you need to be getting scoop blocks on the backside. I think there are a handful of plays that really stand out to me on why Gentry is very good, but why this offensive line is also struggling. On third and fourth and one, or third and fourth and two, they are 41 % rushing success rates, the worst in the league. And there's a play against the Bears where Jordan Meredith pulls and blocks nobody. And Andrew Billings comes right up the middle and blows him up and then Sewell forces the fumble. There's another one, a toss play, where Ashton Gentry ends up gaining 13 yards.

14:19But Bowers misses a down block. He's playing her. They don't have Michael Mayer. He was out this game with a concussion. Ian Thomas, their veteran tight end, missed a block. Looked like he was pass blocking on one of these run plays. They look poorly coached, out-talented in every single week. I don't, again, like, yes, does it get better? Maybe. This screams to me, like, the situation they had with Josh Jacobs. Like, oh, man, this guy looks good. Ooh, not in a good situation. And immediately he goes to another team and he's better. People forget Ashton Gentry wrote a letter to the NFL saying he could be like Saquon Barkley on the Eagles.

14:50Buddy, that's not happening on the Raiders, okay? The Raiders offensive line is not the Eagles offensive line. I think that's exactly right. Ultimately, Ashton Gentry is not going to be worth the value of that top five pick until he's actually running behind even just an average offensive line, let alone something like what the Philadelphia Eagles have had the last few years. Yeah, I'm a little more, it can get to below average, but not the worst of the last 10 years. There were last week, I'm telling you, if you watch Ashton Jensen's carries last week, you're like, he doesn't need a lot. This guy is good.

15:22He can do it, but yeah, it's tough there. I mean, Chip Kelly's probably happy that Pete Carroll's son is the O-line coach because he's escaped all the heat. Gino Smith is playing the worst football of his career. The offensive line stinks. Brock Bowers, is he healthy? Is he not healthy? You know, they're not. He's not. He's not. You go back and watch the tape. Like, he is trying to block. They're asking him to block a lot. They want to run a lot of 12. They want to do it with Michael Mayer, but he's missed some games now. There was multiple games in that Washington game two weeks ago where he's trying to block.

15:49It's not working out, and he's, like, limping back to the huddle. It's like, geez, we do not need to be playing a banged-up Brock Bowers in this situation. Especially if Gito Smith is just throwing directly to defensive backs now. And you don't need him to block, also, I would say. Like, all right, I know you can't totally, you know, you don't, you don't want to make it predictable with what you're going to do, but yeah, you need a pass catcher. If he, if that part of his game is still available to you, then don't get him out there blocking something with you. I mean, that game last week, I felt like they outplayed the bears, but then you're like, well, four turnovers and a blocked field goal.

16:18You just, you almost can never win an NFL game. So there's six and a half point dogs in Indianapolis this week. We'll see what that looks like. All right, let's take a break. We come back a couple more numbers to get to.

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17:30Ashton Jeanty:See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result, less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most.

18:14To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify. All right, back on the Ringer NFL show. What's your next one, Austin? What do we got? I this is I think my favorite as much as I love the Gen Z stuff and the offensive line being terrible Aaron Rodgers and this Pittsburgh Steelers offense I don't think we've ever we've seen anything like it 71 percent of Aaron Rodgers yards have come after this 73 percent in just the game in Dublin but 71 percent on the season have come after the catch highest of any player this year by over 13 percent and highest of any quarterback in weeks one through four this millennium he's got the fastest time to throw in the league fastest of his career he's got the lowest average depth of target in the league by almost a full yard they're using dk metcalf in a completely new way like they are playing i think a style of offense that rogers at 41 years old surprisingly older than joe flacco needs to play because he doesn't want to get hit can't move with his feet anymore like just can't extend plays like he needs to get the ball out fast that when they go against better teams because i think their schedule to start the season has been like very underrated easy is they go against better teams like even that browns defense that they still have to play twice i know the ravens defense isn't what it was but like as they go they got the chargers later on the schedule i think we're going to see like really you know i was hearing i think you're going to see how much the steelers offense is fake when you start to go against more playable defenses because i they're three and one to start the season it's probably exceeding people's expectations i know some people thought the streak was maybe going to end uh for mike talman and the winning record but like i don't know if i was one of those people if you listen of the show, I'm just, I don't know if Austin was subtweeting me or what, uh, listen, there are many old takes exposed to me on the Pittsburgh Steelers out there.

19:51It's kind of an annual tradition. I predict something bad's going to happen to them and it doesn't happen, but I am with you, you know, like it's like, is this sustainable and just the depth of target you mentioned. So Rogers is under five yards, his average pass. Do you know how many quarterbacks in the last 15 years have gone through a season with an average depth of target under five yards? I'm going to say two? The answer is zero. This hasn't happened. So no, it's not sustainable. The closest we got was Alex Smith in 2020. That was 5.1. Only four quarterbacks in the last 15 years have been under six yards and he's under five yards.

20:28So no, I didn't. And the thing is like, so if you want to play that way, the yards after the catch have to be unbelievable, which DK Metcalf, I think we both agree. It's like, oh, he had this in his game. That's pretty cool to see. And like all four continuing to use that