Super Bowl Tiers: Which Teams Are Actual Contenders After Week 6?

0:01Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Week six Sunday in the books. And I think the story in the NFL right now is parody. You know, you can talk yourself into a lot of good teams. It's hard to find that great team. Even you look at the teams that are sitting first in the standings. They all have real flaws. So here's the deal for today's episode. We are doing Super Bowl tiers, trying to answer the question, which teams can actually win it all? If you're a longtime listener, you might remember I did this in the preseason. And I thought, all right, we're a third of the way through the season.

0:36Let's revisit this and see where these teams kind of fall right now. So I got five tiers here. Tier five, it's not happening. These are teams that can go ahead, make sure they're subscribed to Todd McShay's newsletter, check out draft prospects, click on those. You know, you're sharing the links in the group chats about coaching candidates for 2026 because this season's already a wash for your teams. Tier four, playoffs maybe, Super Bowl, no. These are fan bases. You still have a reason to watch. If one of these teams sneaks into the playoffs, your season's probably gonna be considered a success, but you're not winning the Super Bowl.

1:14I'm sorry. All right, tier three, the drunk fan bases. These are the people that are going to be mad at me. These are the teams whose fan bases are most likely to be annoyed with where I have them ranked. I don't think your team has a Super Bowl ceiling. You very well might disagree, especially if you've had a couple of cocktails. You'll be ripping me. You'll be talking to your friends. Can you believe where this guy had us ranked? That kind of thing. So that's the drunk fan bases. Tier two, the lurkers. I don't quite have these teams as top tier contenders, but they're hanging around. And I have a feeling if we do this exercise again in a month, six weeks from now, I could see some of these teams making the leap to the top tier.

1:56And then finally, tier number one, the contenders. No real explanation needed. Again, these teams are flawed, but they all have a real shot at getting to the Super Bowl. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I will hit you with the Super Bowl tiers. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel. And if you're betting on the NFL, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live, and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly. Download the FanDuel app or go to fanduel.com slash Ringer NFL to get started.

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4:18all right here we go let's get to it tier five it's not happening i've got eight teams here there's no realistic scenario where one of these teams is actually a factor in winning the super I don't think you're going to be that surprised by these teams. Dolphins, Jets, Bengals, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Saints, and Cardinals. I don't really need to spend a lot of time here. I mean, these are flat out bad teams. The only one I'll address, Bengals fans, if you think you still have a chance with Joe Flacco keeping you in the mix and Joe Burrow coming back in December for the playoff run, knock yourselves out.

4:55You were at least competitive on Sunday against the Packers with Flacco. I just don't see it. Too many things would have to go right. It's not realistic, in my opinion. Rest of the fan bases, I don't even think you're going to argue with me. You're going to be like, yeah, that's probably where we belong. So let's move on to tier four. Playoffs, maybe. Super Bowl, no. It's possible that one or more of these teams sneaks into the playoffs, but none of them have a Super Bowl ceiling, at least the way I see it. I got five teams in this tier. Vikings, Bears, Panthers, Falcons, and Giants. I wanted to shout out the Panthers real quick.

5:32You know, that was an impressive win against the Cowboys. I feel like they were kind of a laughingstock early in the season. And I don't know how good they're going to be, but I do think they found something they can hang their hat on. And that's their run game. I mean, they ran for 216 yards against Dallas. They're three and three on the season. There's actually some advanced metrics. Like if you look at success rate, stuff like that, that suggests Carolina is kind of an undervalued team. that maybe they're a little bit better than, as Pat Daugherty, what did he call them last week? The boomer metrics, the boomer stats.

6:05The boomer stats might not be high on them, but the advanced stats might be a little higher on them. So they're just a team to watch going forward because they can run the ball, they can stop the run. They're just not very explosive on offense. So keep an eye on them in the weeks ahead. I'm curious to see if they can emerge maybe as a surprise playoff team. I think their fan base would be thrilled if they found a way to sneak in. What was that? Remember Dave Tepper got mad at the guy with the restaurant, had the sign out there, and he went in. I think he flipped the guy's lid. I don't remember all the details, but what if there's a sign about some actual enthusiasm, some positivity around the Carolina Panthers?

6:43So that's one thing to keep an eye on the rest of the way. Other teams in this tier, Bears and Falcons play Monday night. Vikings had a bye. Giants are the last one. Very good game Thursday night. They were impressive. They went up and down the field against the Eagles. Let's see if they can be a frisky team. I feel like I still need to see more, but at least they got a little bit of juice in terms of let's pay a little bit of attention to them here with Jackson Dart. So I'm taking them more seriously than I did a few weeks ago, but I'm not convinced they belong in a higher tier here. All right, tier three, the drunk fan bases.

7:20These are teams whose fan bases can probably talk themselves into a Super Bowl run. You know, like I said, especially if you're hanging out, having a few drinks, dreaming about maybe booking a flight to San Francisco, just in case you have a friend you can stay with, Airbnb, hotel, what are you doing? Those types of things. Maybe, you know, on a Sunday night after a victory, you're thinking about those things, but I can't get there. And I've got six teams in this tier. The Steelers, the Ravens, the Jaguars, the Texans, the 49ers, and the Cowboys. Let's start in the AFC North with the fan base that's probably going to be most upset with me, and that's the Pittsburgh Steelers.

8:00They're 4-1. If you're a Steelers fan, I know you're cussing me out right now. You're calling me a hater. You're saying I was wrong about this team before this season, and I'm wrong about them now. Maybe you'll be right. I will admit the Steelers are better than I thought they were going to be, no doubt about it. Run game has looked good. Aaron Rodgers is doing enough. You know, it's kind of a dink and dunk passing game. I know they took the shot to DK Metcalf downfield, overthrew him today. So they're taking some of those, but overall shortest average depth of target for any offense in the NFL with Aaron Rodgers, but he's taking care of the football.

8:38DK Metcalf looks terrific and they win the turnover battle every week. That's the real key with them. They are first in the entire NFL in EPA on turnover. So you have to decide, Do I think this is something that is going to repeat, is sustainable for the rest of the season? Or is this something where it could kind of regress to the mean a little bit? I think you probably know where I stand with where I have the Steelers ranked here. I don't view them as a true contender. I don't think their defense has been tested. They have wins over Justin Fields, Carson Wentz, Dylan Gabriel. They beat the Patriots, but they got five takeaways in that game.

9:14I don't think anyone watching that game thought they really outplayed the Patriots in that game. So they get credit for the win. Just saying a little bit fluky that game. So I'm also not positive that their passive game can be efficient or explosive enough if it has to be, you know, if it's a game where they get, they're losing, they're playing from behind, their run game's not working. Can they come back with their passing game? I need to see that to believe it. So overall, they've got all the nerd metrics that people like me say, They don't seem like a real contender. They're plus 12 point differential.

9:51They're 3-0 in one score games. So they're in a great spot to make the playoffs again. They're better than I thought they were going to be. I just don't buy them as a Super Bowl team. Ravens. Ravens are next. Ravens have probably dug themselves too deep a hole here at 1-5. I mean, that is hard to really make a run when you go 1-5. However, John Harbaugh did say that Lamar Jackson is expected to return from his injury after next week's bye. So it's not definitely over. Now, for Baltimore, it's all about finding some way. Can you find some way to go on a run, sneak into the playoffs? Odds are stacked against them.

10:30But if you have a two-time MVP, I think you have at least a little bit of a chance. So I kept him in this tier. Again, a month from now, I might be like, see ya. What are the Ravens doing next offseason? All right, we got the AFC South teams next. Jaguars and Texans. Jaguars lose to the Seahawks on Sunday. And can we have an honest conversation about the Jacksonville Jaguars? Two things. One, wildly entertaining team. Two, a stupid team. Can we just call them a stupid team? I mean, if they have to, like, I was doing this exercise and I'm thinking, if they have to beat good teams in the playoffs on consecutive weeks, they're just, they're not going to be able to do it.

11:09They're just going to make too many mistakes, penalties, blown protections, drops, Trevor Lawrence missing throws. I mean, you can watch them for a quarter or a half and see a Super Bowl team, but they're just way too mistake prone to be taken seriously as a contender. So sorry, Jaguars. You're getting an entertaining season. They're winning games. I'm just telling you I'm not taking them seriously as a Super Bowl contender. All right, Texans, let's see if they can figure some things out offensively at the bye. I mean, their offense has played like one good game all season. So I don't trust them, but I'm willing to watch a little longer before I say count them out completely.

11:48All right, finally, last two teams in this tier, the 49ers and the Cowboys. We got to talk about the 49ers. Devastating injury on Sunday. Fred Warner dislocates and fractures his ankle. That's according to ESPN. He is out for the season. I just don't believe the 49ers can withstand that injury. They're four and two. Kyle Shanahan and Mac Jones have kept the offensive float. But remember, the 49ers were already playing without Nick Bosa. Their entire defense, especially this season, when they lost a bunch of vets on defense, this year, if the defense was going to be good going into the year, you needed Bosa and you needed Warner to be stars.

12:34It was built around those two stars. Bosa is a force multiplier up front, makes everyone else's life easier, makes your other pass rushers look better. And then Warner, I mean, the structure of the defense, the 49ers, it's built around Warner's skill set, his range, his instincts, his coverage. So I just take a step back and look at it. It's just too much. I mean, if Warner were healthy, I would bump the 49ers up a tier, but he just means too much to them. They're already dealing with so many injuries. This, to me, is the straw that breaks the camel's back. They can make the playoffs, but they cannot get to the Super Bowl with this defense without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.

13:16So that's where I'm at with the 49ers here. And finally, the Cowboys. I'm sorry. I have to sound like a broken record here. I cannot get this out of my head. If you're a daily listener, I appreciate you. There are going to be times when you say, Sheel, you said that already. I understand. I cannot help myself because it's the same thought that comes to mind when I watch this football team. And I have to make the point one more time. Maybe next time I make it, you can find me. I'll donate to charity or something if I bring up this point again. But let me make it one more time. If the Dallas Cowboys had Micah Parsons, I would consider them a Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

13:53Let me explain. Remember back with me to when Micah Parsons got traded. You remember some of those stats that were circulating about how, hey, the Cowboys defense, when they've had Micah Parsons, they've been the best defense in the NFL. When they haven't had Micah Parsons, they've been the worst defense in the NFL. You probably thought, all right, but that's, you know, there's probably some noise there. That's probably not actually how it's going to play out. Well, guess where their defense ranks this season? Last, any nerd stat you want to look at EPA per drive success rate. Remember when Jerry Jones told you, and maybe some people parroted this, that, hey, getting rid of Parsons, adding Kenny Clark, it's going to improve their run defense.

14:40Very important, the old run defense. Guess where the Cowboys rank in success rate against the run? Last in the NFL. If you watch that game against the Panther Sunday, you don't need any fancy stats. You saw it with your eyes, what Rico Dowdle was doing in that game. So the point here is that I've been so impressed with what they've done offensively. I gave Brian Schottenheimer credit last week, much to my own surprise. We give Dak Prescott credit. They're doing it without C.D. Lamb. They're doing it without offensive linemen. And guess what? They're wasting it. It doesn't matter because their defense is just so bad.

15:17So can they be a playoff team? Sure. I mean, they're competitive pretty much every week, but they cannot get to the Super Bowl with this defense. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, we go over the top two tiers of Super Bowl contenders. This episode is brought to you by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. At Little Caesars, the pizzas are always large, so you'll always get more bite for less buck on game day. You know, I'm not high maintenance. I'm a simple guy. Just give me a plain cheese, like they said, large, eat it all day, eat it for lunch, come back, have a little slice later in the afternoon for dinner.

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16:38Copyright 2025 LCE Incorporated. This episode is brought to you by Netflix. The World Cup is finally here and the coolest thing right now, FIFA World Cup launch edition on Netflix, a fast and fluid game where your phone is the controller and your TV is the stadium. Play as any of the 48 teams in 16 real world stadiums and it's included in your membership. Yeah. Go to the games tab on your TV and play FIFA World Cup launch edition now. Only on Netflix. All right, back on the Ringer NFL show tier two, I have the Lurkers. These are teams that are not quite in that top tier, but they're hanging around.

17:17They got a shot to get there. I just need to see more. A month from now, I have a feeling I'm bumping at least one of these teams up to that top tier. And those five teams are the Patriots, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Seahawks, and the Colts, those five teams. All right, let's start with the Patriots. Here's the deal. If you're not a Patriots fan, you likely find Patriots fans to be, let's say, among the most obnoxious factions in the NFL. You kind of wish bad things for them. After two decades of Brady and Belichick, you don't want to hear about, oh, but before that, things were really, no, you don't really care about that.

17:59When you've been alive, when you've been watching football, they've had Brady, they've had Belichick, and you don't think they need anything else good to happen to them. So it is with great sorrow that I must report to those of you who feel that way that Drake May is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL. I mean, statistically, May is first in drop back success rate. And when you look at that, their run game has been mostly horrible. And it hasn't mattered because he's been so efficient. The question with the Patriots and with May this season is that is it too early for them to make an actual run?

18:34In other words, is this their, hey, leap to playoff year and next year is their, hey, we can actually contend here. That is entirely possible. However, sometimes things happen fast and they happen unexpectedly. And year two, if you look at kind of the recent history of the NFL, it's a big year for quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, they won MVPs in year two. Joe Burrow got to the Super Bowl in year two. And I was thinking about that Burrow team. 2021, it might actually be a reasonable comp here. If you think the Patriots have that type of ceiling, young quarterback on the rise defense that wasn't great in the regular season.

19:13But remember that year, Louie Anarumo went on a heater in the playoffs. Are these Patriots capable of something like that? Maybe I'm not sure, but maybe they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They're going to be able to stack up a bunch of wins. They beat the bill. So we know they can play with the big boys. They need to figure some things out defensively, but you look at Vrabel's history, and he has coached his teams to some playoff upsets before. So Patriots are lurking here. I don't know if people think I got them too high, too low, whatever, but I feel pretty strongly they belong in this category.

19:49Again, for those of you who don't want to hear it, I'm sorry to be the messenger. All right, AFC West, I got the Chargers and the Broncos both in this tier. Feels like the Chargers have already played a full season. I mean, a lot of things have happened with this Chargers team already. They're 4-2. They've had so many injuries. They escape with a win at Miami. Justin Herbert, Vlad McConkie, huge play late in that game. Game on the line. They make the play. For the Chargers, it's really just about staying in it and seeing what your team looks like in December because they've had all those injuries.

20:21What does it look like when guys get back? Are you still in the mix? Can you get hot down the stretch? So I do think they still have a chance, the Chargers. Broncos are a tough one. I don't think if you woke up and watched that, you know, Broncos jets Sunday morning in London, I don't think you were watching that going, man, Broncos look like they're a Super Bowl team. But here's the reason I still have them in this tier. They've had the best defense in the NFL so far. I was looking at looking this up, you know, there have been four instances in the entire season that a defense has held an offense to fewer than 10 first downs.

20:57Three of those have been against the Broncos. So the Broncos have done it three times. Rest of the NFL has done it one time. So I was trying to think about what it might look like if the Broncos actually make a Super Bowl run. And I think it's some version of what we saw from the Eagles last season. It's not a perfect comparison, but bear with me for a second here. Dominant defense. Offense that's kind of up and down in the regular season. Do you trust them? Do you not trust them? But they get hot in the playoffs. Again, not a perfect comparison because the Eagles had a lot of talent on offense, but Sean Payton is an excellent offensive coach.

21:32So maybe he can make up for some of the talent deficiency. So I think the Broncos, just I look at them the rest of the way, they're going to be really hard to blow out because their defense is really good and Bo Nix doesn't make a lot of those negative plays. So they're kind of in every game. They have an edge on the lines of scrimmage, I think, in pretty much every game. And I think they're a competitive team. I just don't know that they're a Super Bowl team. Hence, they are lurking. All right, last two in this category, the Colts and the Seahawks. I'll be honest. I'm going to take you behind the curtain, break the fourth wall, whatever you want to call it.

22:07I had the Colts one tier lower when I first did this exercise. And then I thought, come on, bump them up, you know, because in my heart, I don't actually think they can win the Super Bowl, but they're five and one. They have the best point differential in the NFL. Statistically, they have the best offense in the NFL. and then I thought, you know what? They kind of remind me of last year's Vikings. Very well coached quarterback in Daniel Jones who's playing better than he's ever played before. A team exceeding all expectations. If they still look like this six weeks from now, I'll have to reassess and bump them up to an actual contender.

22:43I mean, if we're 12 weeks in and this is what it looks like, then you really got to, I mean, you got to take them seriously as a contender. So that's where the Colts are right now. They've been playing well and they've been having a really fun season. All right, last team here, the Seattle Seahawks. Impressive win in Jacksonville Sunday. They're four and two. They're tied with Detroit for the best point differential in the NFC. And the thing about Seattle is that like the defense has been decimated with injuries. If you look at the guys that were playing today, these aren't the guys that are going to be playing for them in November, in December.

23:18So I don't think we've seen close to the best version of the Seahawks yet. So I need to see two things. I need to see one, Sam Darnold and the offense continue to play well, which they have done. And then I need to see, are we talking about this as like a top five defense in a few weeks when they get guys back healthy? Because I thought going into the season, they could be that kind of team. They just need to have their players back. And it's a lot of players. I know every team has injuries. They've had some really big injuries specifically in the secondary. So like the other teams in this tier, they've got a chance.

23:52All right, finally, tier one, the contenders. I've got eight teams here, and I think that's the right number. In the future, if I add a team to this tier, I think I'm going to force myself to bump one of these teams out. So here are the teams I've got as actual contenders after six weeks of the NFL season. Bills, Chiefs, Lions, Packers, Bucks, Rams, Eagles, Commanders. Don't ask how I ordered them because I have no idea now that I'm looking back at it. I have no idea why I put them in that order. But let's start with the Sunday night game. I thought the Chiefs looked great, their offense specifically.

24:34Actually, their defense played really well in the second half too. But it's the second straight week I've watched that offense and been like, okay, I actually think they figure things out here because they have a top five offense. Their offensive line is better. They're getting Rasheed Rice back next week. And I'm looking at all these teams we're talking about. And if I had to say, all right, you get to pick one team that you just think is going to win the Super Bowl. I think I would still go with the Bills. I think I would probably go with the Chiefs second. I mean, I didn't think they were going to be in this spot.

25:04I thought this was going to be kind of a step back year. Ravens get up there with the Bills, maybe another team. Chiefs don't make it, but Chiefs are in a great spot right now after six weeks. All right, Lions are in a good spot too. They're four and two. They've had injuries on defense. They're expected to get guys back down the road. So there's a difference with these teams. I mean, we've talked a lot about injuries. If it's a season ender, that falls in one bucket. If it's like, all right, their guys are out for three weeks, four weeks, six weeks, whatever. but you're going to get them back specifically for the stretch run.