The Biggest Questions Coming Out of Week 13

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1:35Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. We are talking about the biggest questions coming out of week 13. What are those questions? Number one, who is in the driver's seat to be the one seed? In the NFC, Rams lose to the Panthers. Eagles lost to the Bears on Friday. Where does that leave us right now? Question number two, who is winning the AFC South? Texans beat the Colts, Jaguars win. Suddenly we have a fun race among some flawed but entertaining teams. And question number three, which preseason contender is cooked? Meaning if the playoffs started today, the Chiefs and Lions would be out.

2:11Austin Gayle:Is it going to stay that way? Which of them is more likely to miss the playoffs? Our guest today is the Ringer's very own Austin Gale. Let's take a break and come back and talk questions coming out of week 13. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal.

2:51Austin Gayle:Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

3:07Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. Joined by Austin Gale, we are talking about the biggest questions coming out of week 13. Austin, let's get started here. First question, who's going to be the one seed in the NFC? Does anybody want this? The Eagles didn't want it on Friday. The Rams didn't want it on Sunday, losing to the Panthers right now. Can you believe it? The Chicago Bears at nine and three, if the season ended today, would be the one seed in the NFC and would have the bye. So I want to know, is it going to stay that way? Are the Seahawks going to get in there? Are the Packers still going to get in there?

3:44Austin Gayle:And I'll tell you, I am still with the Rams. after this. I don't think we learned anything new about the Rams and this loss to the Panthers. This was classic, like very good team goes on the road, turns the football over. And that's why they lose the game. They went up and down the field. I don't have any questions about them coming out of today that I didn't have, uh, earlier. And I look at their schedule. I think they are still the favorites to win the one seat. Sorry, Bears fans. We'll get to you in a second. We do deserve some props, but that's where I'm at. Austin, where are you at with this?

4:13No, I'm still with you. I think the Rams are the favorite to still have the one seed in the NFC for a reason. There are three teams right now at nine and three, Bears at top at nine and three, Rams are nine and three, and then also the Seahawks. And I think the Seahawks are probably the most interesting conversation somehow, not the Bears. The Bears, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, have the hardest remaining strength of schedule. I also think it's a team where the defense is very gettable. And as much as I think Caleb is talented and improving, I think the offensive line has also stepped up as well.

4:41It's a huge improvement from last year. The run game is insane. I still feel like the defense is suspect enough, especially against the schedule they have coming up. It's at Packers, Browns, Packers again, at 49ers, and then Lions to finish it off. The good news is, is that Lions game is in Chicago outside against Jared Goff. And that could be a game where it ends up being kind of like, hey, either the Bears or the Lions are going into the playoffs. If there was a team that I think has a chance to kind of steal it away from Chicago, obviously now in the one seed spot, but also the Rams, I do think it's Seattle.

5:12The worry I have is in these big games, and I think you felt it a little bit today, even though the Seattle Seahawks ended up winning, that Sam Darnold is turnover prone and can kind of curl up under pressure. Danny Kelly, host of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, big Seahawks fan, multiple times in this game. He's like, I think I'm just done with this Darnold stuff. And I think it's because... Oh my gosh. And it's obviously, it's like this football season, he's been good for a lot of the year, but I feel like Darnold, Goff, Daniel Jones, all three quarterbacks, you kind of feel like the pressure and it's stacking up either literally with people coming off the edge and blisters and those types of things or in the pressure of the situation.

5:51It's hard to count on them being those guys that on third and seven plus or a long fourth down or big fourth down that these guys are going to come away with the plays, especially with Seattle's offense. Half of the passing yards are going to Jackson Smith to Jigba and I think better defenses are going to be able to step on Darnold in these clutch situations and just kind of single out that team. So I'm with the Rams. I do think Seattle has a legit shot at it. The defense is one of the best in the NFL. Bears are obviously going to be in the mix too. It's going to be hard to pick down this five-week stretch, but I think I'm sticking with the Rams.

6:17Austin Gayle:Yeah, I think the Seahawks, the big thing for them is they still get the Rams on the schedule. So obviously if you beat the Rams in that game here in a few weeks, the rest of their schedule is not that tough. I am with you though. I mean, watching that first half, I can see why DK and other Seahawks fans would feel that way, where you're kind of like, man, Flores has Darnold and Kubiak in a blender. right now. They're not going to win this game because their offense is going up and down the field and they didn't need to. They obviously turned the Vikings over a bunch of times, four or five interceptions, whatever it was.

6:46Austin Gayle:I lost track. So their defense is going to keep them in every game. I think in a big spot, you're still obviously more nervous with Darnold than you would be with Matthew Stafford. So I think we're on the same page there. The Bears, it's getting to the point where I feel like I've said a similar thing about them week after week where I'm like, well, the defense, they're feasting on turnovers. And I still don't know about the passing game and the one score games. And we are in December officially. We're recording this after midnight Eastern time, Austin. We're in December and they are the one seed in the NFC.

7:19Austin Gayle:So I just, I do feel like if you're a Bears fan, you go into every game, even when you're a big underdog and you say, our coach is giving us an edge. He came up with something this week in the game plan that he's going to know how to attack this defense and he's going to be able to adjust and he's going to come up with wrinkles and he's going to be a step ahead. And so while I generally do agree with you, I also understand if you're a Bears fan who's like, all right, you guys have been saying this for a long time. We might have the best coach or a coach who can go toe-to-toe with anybody in the NFC right now.

7:50Austin Gayle:So, I mean, the vibes in charge, are they the best vibes team in the league right now? Like the post game? I mean, Ben Johnson, can we address the elephant in the room real quick here, Austin? You watched the post game, right? With Ben Johnson ripping his shirt off in the locker room? Of course. is my guy just naturally hair, no chest hair, naturally hairless, no arm hair. I mean, I can see him shaving everything for some kind of hidden edge, you know? I can see that. I don't know what the actual edge is, but like, if he told me like, yeah, I shave before every game, it would not surprise me as being some kind of edge.

8:20Austin Gayle:I've been on group chats where I post this question and people have come back with the exact response. Like, I don't know. I could see him actually being someone who, I don't know, he's getting a wax, he's getting all waxed off the day before the, whatever. But he looked good. But listen, those locker room videos, they are very excited and the vibes are great for that Bears team. Here's what I like about the Bears. And I think it starts with Caleb Williams offstand. I think even more so like Ben Johnson. But Caleb Williams, I think what we've seen this year, and it's kind of like a Rojark test every single week with like what we like and what we don't like.

8:49I think what we know about Caleb Williams specifically this year is he's gotten a lot better with the pre-snap stuff and being able to get under center and being able to do this, like what is a very multiple offense. They do a ton of different runs, run concepts or constantly trying to innovate in the passing game as well. It's a lot to handle for Caleb Williams, which you had that report before the season where old coaches are saying he was dyslexic. Like he is, I think, handled that adversity very well, improved in that area of the game specifically every single week. I think what you also know about Caleb Williams is he's been inaccurate with the football.

9:17He's up there in the most off target, you know, throwaway according to true media and, and that this offense actually needs to run the football to be successful. And you've seen that with Kyle Manungai and DeAndre Swift, specifically on Thanksgiving against this Eagles defense. You see like if they can run the ball like they have. And last year with running back carries, they were 27th in the NFL in EPA per rush. This year, they're second, right? And I think with Ben Johnson, and I think you even feel this with Liam Cohen as well, you know, anytime we're talking about these like offensive gurus, we always focus on what they've done with the quarterback position.

9:46Look what Ben Johnson did with Jared Goff and now Caleb Williams or Liam Cohen was able to do with Baker. But I think both of those offensive play callers, what got underrated is how much they improved their run games, right? I think Liam Cohen has massively improved the Jags run game. It's top five in rushing success right this year. It was also really good in Tampa Bay when he was there. And then with Ben Johnson, you saw the run game completely revitalized. In Detroit, obviously, the offensive line was great. They had talent at running back. But here in Chicago, he improved the offensive line specifically over this offseason.

10:11And then what he's getting out of Swift and Monunga, I think, actually makes this offense viable week to week. The defense, however, and I think that's where the biggest case against the Bears is, I think is very gettable. And I think what's been underrated about the Bears defense this year is their ability to create pressure with their front four is like non-existent. Their 31st in pressure rate. Their best pass rusher, who's had at least 200 pass rushing snaps this year by pass rush win rate, according to PFF, is Gervon Dexter, a defensive tackle. When your defense is there, you don't have an edge player that's beating out like a big boy defensive tackle and pass rush win rate.

10:44You're just not getting home on the edge. And I think that's ultimately what's going to end up. And I think the secondary also has some suspects in there as well. They've been injury plagued, sure. But the defense, bottom three in the league by a lot of metrics. and I think specifically the one that hurts when you get into the postseason or down the stretch here against good teams is to create pressure. So Rams, I know they lost against the Panthers today in a sloppy wet game in Carolina, but I ultimately still feel like on both sides of all, even special teams too, the Rams I think have the biggest edge and should be that one seed in the NFC.

11:10Austin Gayle:I'm with you. Rams, Seahawks have a chance if they can beat the Rams. Packers, I'm not counting out yet. They looked great on Thanksgiving and Bears fans, just enjoy it. I mean, they are a fun team giving you a fun season right here. All right, next question here, Austin. Who is winning the AFC South? First of all, do we care? Like, let's talk about this from a content perspective. Is this an entertaining division? Are you entertained by these teams? Is it fun, even if all the teams are flawed? Are you like, Shiel, this is a terrible question. Why don't we go to something people care about more?

11:41Of course it's fun. I think it's still been kind of ugly. I think the Jags are the one team that, even though they're obviously in the mix here to win the AFC South with where they're at, I think, what, they're like, eight wins now this season. Yeah, they're eight and four on the year. I think I just can't look you in the face and confidently say anything left or right with this Jags team finishing the season. I still think they have a ton of bozo in them. They simply are undisciplined. I don't know if it's Liam Cohen. I don't know if it's what it is, but they lead the league in penalties per game.

12:13They are always in these spots where they're giving up big bonehead penalties. I still think Trevor Lawrence, I think someone tweeted this last week where it's like, sometimes he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and like a play later, he can look like it's his first time ever playing the game. And I think that you still have that with Lawrence. I think the rushing offense is good. Jags offensive line is like not a torrential like problem for them, which I think is okay. And the defense I think has been turnover dependent, but still enough there specifically up front to create pressure where like, there's a reason they're eight and four this season.

12:39I think Liam Cohen actually has it as a coach, but I think there's still too much Bozo in them to even count on them winning as favorites. Now it's the Colts division, I think to lose. And I think they're reeling right now. Obviously I think one in three in their last four games and it does kind of feel like there's been a little bit of a blueprint with how to stop this team. It's sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor and force Daniel Jones to beat you on these third and longs and send pressure on him, heat up his feet, especially now that the news came out that he's playing with a fractured leg or whatever.

13:09I think that the Colts are in a sinking area. The Jags are inconsistent week to week, which leaves me, which I know they're like plus 350 to win the division. I like the Houston Texans. I'm with you.

13:19Austin Gayle:I mean, they have a real chance at this, Austin. And I think if you look at what's the best unit in the division right now, I trust the Texans defense over any other, you know, more than the Colts offense, more than any other team. So the odds are interesting here. You alluded to them earlier. The Texans are plus 350. They're seven and five. The Colts are the favorites plus 120. They're eight and four. And the Jaguars are also eight and four, but they're plus 150. I mean, my strongest take here is that the Colts could go from one seed to actually missing the playoffs. Like it's not that crazy.

13:50Austin Gayle:And I don't just say that from today's, like I thought this game was a pretty evenly played game. I thought they didn't get a good whistle there at the end. It could have gone either way. So I'm not even saying, man, the Texans outplayed the Colts here, but it's all about where they're trending. As you said, you know, when you have Daniel Jones now playing with this injury where he couldn't scramble in this game, there's no designed run game with him. Nothing. You got that. You got sauce Gardner. Your big trade deadline acquisition now has a calf injury. At least that's what it's labeled right now.

14:18Austin Gayle:We'll see how long he's going to be out. And then you look at their remaining schedule, which is pretty difficult here. I mean, by I think the betting markets, it might be the hardest or the second hardest in the NFL. They got the Jaguars top twice, the Texans once. They're at Seattle and then the 49ers at home. I mean, you could potentially. So they're eight and four. If they go two and three against that hard schedule, they're 10 and seven. And I don't think that makes them a lock to make the playoffs. So to your point earlier, there's a lot to still be decided here in the last five weeks of the season.

14:51I think the even Colts fans are not going into these final five games feeling all that confident, specifically these two games against the Jacks, right? This upcoming week, they're going to go to Jacksonville. And then three weeks later, they're going to have home Jacks. Those two games could really decide who ends up kind of winning the AFC South with just where that's at. Houston only has one divisional game left or maybe two divisional games left to close out the season. with Indy, what I think is the biggest reason kind of why you're feeling this kind of downfall is one, they were obviously overvalued to start the season, right?

15:22Remember all those stats about like, oh, they haven't punted yet this year. This offense is as efficient as the 2007 Tom Brady-led Pats. It's like, okay, we know this Colts team is not bad. Our friend Anthony DiBundo was just hitting us

15:32Austin Gayle:with those, I mean, of the render. Just day in and day out. We said settle down, DiBundo. You know, we're vets in this game. Just letting you know. Sorry to cut you off. Yeah, no, no. We just knew, we knew they weren't that, right? We knew this offense wasn't going to be one of the best offenses we've ever seen. Even if they end up sneaking into the playoffs, they do feel like primed in this spot to exit the playoffs without a playoff win. Then you start to question, whoa, what are we doing here? Do we have to like now extend General Jones? And you kind of end up in this weird spot where like you gave up a first round pick for Sauce Gardner.

15:58You kind of went all in on this team. But is it a team that can kind of get you over the hump? It's a tough spot if you're a Colts fan. You do not want to go two and three, one and four down the stretch, which feels really likely with how hard the schedule is going to be.

16:08Austin Gayle:Yeah, they've got a lot at stake. Like you mentioned, and we talked about it last week where we said they've got Daniel Jones has a lot at stake. The Colts have a lot at stake, depending on how the rest of this season goes for them. And then I'm with you on the Jaguars. Like if you took the analytical part of my brain, I would look at it. I would look at their remaining schedule. I would look at the fact that they're eight and four and I would go. They probably have the best chance to win the AFC South. I just can't get there. I didn't learn a lot from that game against the Titans. You know, they get the special teams turnover early in the game and then they kind of jump all over them and are up 25-3.

16:40Austin Gayle:midway through the third quarter there. So we'll see next week with them. I mean, they are in a good spot right now. I'm with you. I just don't totally trust them. So I think we're on the same page there with the Texans. All right, let's take a break. We come back and we're talking about which contender is cooked. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. Hey, Missouri, the wait is finally over. FanDuel Sportsbook is live in the Show Me State. Right now, new customers can bet$5 and get 300 in bonus bets, win or lose. Plus, this week, only every customer gets a no sweat bet every day. So even if your bet doesn't hit, you'll get bonus bets back to keep the action going.

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18:02Austin Gayle:This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, I just, someone noticed my golf clubs in the garage and said, these are hideous. You need to clean these. So you know what I did? Go on Amazon Prime, find the golf brush, find a little bucket. And now, you know what? Gonna be able to clean those bad boys. It just shows up right at my doorstep. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. Need some holiday magic?

18:36Austin Gayle:It's on Prime. Head to amazon.com slash prime to shop now. All right, last question. Coming out of week three here, Austin, which contender is cooked, the Chiefs or the Lions? And by cooked, I mean, they're not gonna make the playoffs because if you look at it right now, you go to your pretty little ESPN NFL standings page or wherever you go, these two teams would not make it if the season ended today, which I think before the season, if you would have told me, December 1st, after week 13, the Chiefs and Lions are not going to be in the top seven of their conference. I would have said, all right, did Mahomes get injured?

19:14Austin Gayle:Who got injured on the Lions? And that's not really the case here. So who do you have as less likely, if you had to pick one, I'm telling you right now, one of them is not going to make the playoffs. Which team are you picking? If I had to pick one, I think I am going to go Detroit to miss the playoffs and not the Chiefs. And some of it, I think, is the strength of schedule. for Detroit. They have the Cowboys coming up at home. Then they got to go to Los Angeles, take on the Rams, Steelers at Vikings and then at Bears. I know that Vikings game probably isn't going to be anything, especially if Brosmer is playing, who's the now the new Peterman.