The Biggest Questions Coming Out of Week 14

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1:35Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. We are talking about the biggest questions coming out of week 14. What are those questions? Glad you asked. Number one, how did the Chiefs get here? They're six and seven on the ropes, looking like they're not going to make the playoffs after that loss to the Texans. We'll talk about that. Question number two, where are we with the AFC North after the Steelers going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens? And then finally, question number three, where do the Indianapolis Colts go from here after losing Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury?

2:12Austin Gayle:To talk about it all, we've got my friend, the ringer's own Austin Gale. Let's take a break and come back with Austin. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a sea captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

3:01Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with Austin Gale. Austin, I'm buzzing. That was an awesome Sunday night game for all the reasons we thought. Not only was the game great, but the storyline, the compelling defending AFC champs on the ropes and the Chiefs lose again. So we're starting with the first question. Why are the Chiefs in this spot? How did they get in this spot where they are six and seven with just a 15 % chance to make the playoffs? And I'm giving you my take first and then you can tell me if I'm right or wrong. I see two things here, Austin. And I think, number one, this has been a season in which just about anything that could go wrong has gone wrong, barring a Patrick Mahomes injury.

3:42Austin Gayle:I mean, you look at this. I know people are sick of hearing it. One in six in one score games. They go into this game with three offensive linemen down. They lose their left tackle on the first play of the game. And even in this game that they lose 20 to 10, it was a terrible offensive performance. They have four different possessions and on drops in this game. Of course, the Travis Kelsey one in the fourth quarter. So that's one for me. It's just kind of one of those years where it's a small sample. A lot of stuff went wrong. I'm not saying they're a great team, but they're better than a six and seven team.

4:13Austin Gayle:But then I think the bigger thing, Austin, I think you're going to agree more with this is just that despite what the numbers say, this offense isn't reliable enough. It's not dangerous enough. It doesn't have the guys that make opposing defensive coordinators during the week be like, oh my gosh, what's our plan for this guy? I mean, they had all their guys in this game, Rice, Kelsey, Worthy, Brown, and it didn't look to me like the Texans defense was sweating any of those one-on-one things. So that's where I'm at with this Chiefs season. Where am I right? Where am I wrong? I think that when you just kind of count it as luck, some of it's luck and some of it's stuff not bouncing their way.

4:51And I think you bringing up, do they have guys that are threatening the opposing defense, threatening the opposing defense coordinator on offense in these games? And I think where it really has shown up, I think on both sides of the ball for Kansas City, and I think these are like kind of the most telling stats about this season is third down. The Chiefs this season are 26th defensively in third down conversion rate this year. And I think you've felt that in this game specifically when Spags needs to dial up something, get pressure, rely on his secondary in the back end. You know, there was a handful of these big third downs in this game where Houston's able to convert.

5:21But the bigger news or the kind of the bigger like reason, I think, why this offense feels kind of clunky, is the Chiefs on third down, specifically Mahomes dropbacks. I brought these stats to you. They actually floored me prepping for this pod. I'm going to read you third down EPA for Patrick Mahomes, weeks one through 14, his entire era with the Chiefs, starting in 2018. 68. That's extra points added. 68 on third downs. Then it goes the next season. This is 2018 to 2019. 42, 59, 35, 88. 33 48 now we're on to 2025 what do you think after hearing all that is Patrick Mahomes third down EPA this season weeks one through 14 only 27 negative 11 it has dropped off massively an EPA per drop back and obviously total EPA on third downs their success rate on third downs is the worst it's been when passing in the Mahomes era and I think it comes back to they don't have these guys and the offensive line I think is taking a step back they don't have these guys that are legit weapons for them on third down.

6:25You saw it with the drops in this game. Kareem Hunt dropped one. Rasheed Rice dropped one. Travis Kelsey dropped a few. Noah Gray dropped some. And, you know, I think that the Travis Kelsey of this all too, like you've gone from having a Hall of Fame game-breaking talent at tight end to a legit liability. I disagree with this.

6:43Austin Gayle:People were going crazy online about Travis Kelsey. Austin, where do you think he ranks among tight ends in receiving yards this year? I'm going to say top five. He is second in the NFL. He's second in the, among all tight ends and yards after the catch this year, I had a terrible game. He had, he is not the guy he was. I under people were going crazy. Okay. He's things he's, I don't think he's a liability. He should be like your third best receiving option in their offense. And I think that's the problem. He's not, he's like one or two for them. And you saw in this game in a key spot with a game on the line, where did Patrick Mahomes go on back-to-back plays to Travis Kelsey?

7:20Austin Gayle:Cause he's like, I don't know who I trust. Let me go to my boy. And that shouldn't be how the offense is constructed. So I agree with your overall assessment. I just thought people are going overboard. That's me looking at too much social media. I still think Kelsey is a shell of himself. And you've seen that in the stats, just like overall, like in terms of like yards after the catch per attempt and some of this stuff. And I think that, you know, you go back to week one where he runs in Xavier Worthy, knocks him out of the play on the very first play of the game. Like he just is, is not the player they clearly need him to be.

7:45And he has been in this dynastic multiple Superbowl run. And I think you've also felt this, I think, in the team building area specifically, when you look at the 2022-2023 Chiefs Super Bowl teams along the offensive line. Orlando Brown, who they traded a first-round pick for. They had Joe Tooney along that offensive line as well. Both all five of their starters in the 2022 Super Bowl along the offensive line return for 2023. And then you look at this offensive line, which came into the game with three injuries, obviously playing backups. Then on the first play of the game, Wanya Morris, who was starting at left tackle, leaves the game as well.

8:15The offensive line has taken a massive step back. And I think they're still relying on Kelsey to be this guy for them that he hasn't been. And then when you look at the receiving core, you know, they lost Tyreek Hill after that 2022 Super Bowl. They were able to kind of replace him in the aggregate, shrink the offense down, make plays after the catch. I think leaning on that and trying to continue to lean on that, they have not found specifically the deep threat. Right. And like you could say, Xavier, where they keep trying. Yeah. And they keep trying. And like if your best deep threat is Tyquan Thornton, who had a big drop in this game, not necessarily a drop, got poked out late, but still like when your best deep threat is actually not a threat at all.

8:48I think it kind of shows up too. You don't have the guys that are making plays after the catch like you did before. You don't have this deep net like you had Tyreek Hill. The offensive line takes a step back. The secondary isn't as good as it was anymore. And then this goes without saying probably, but like anytime any team plays the Chiefs, they're bringing their best.

9:04Austin Gayle:Yeah, it has been just a really weird year for them. I don't think it's been Mahomes' best year. I don't think he's like, you know, number one on the list. But to your point, those third down stats, I mean, really what that says is even in years, I remember like the end of last year where Mahomes is taking some heat and I looked those up and it's like, no, Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL on third and fourth down. Like that has been the case every single year. And he hasn't been that guy this year. And there's been some variants with the, with the deep passing game and all that.

9:33Austin Gayle:But yeah, I look at it. And if I were them, and I even said this after the Superbowl last year, Austin, when I was like, I would sit down after this, this game and this season be like, I want our offense to just be harder to defend because we have a once in a lifetime quarterback. And so whether that means building up the offensive line, whether it means wide receiver, whether it means tight end, whether it means speed at running, a game breaker running back, which they have not had. I mean, they cannot create an explosive play on the ground to save their life. All those things need to add up.

10:02Austin Gayle:And to your point, they've invested resources. You know, Rasheed Rice is a good player. That was a good pick, even though he had the big drop today, Xavier worthy. I mean, did he play in this game? Like, honestly, the seasons on the line and you didn't even notice Xavier worthy. Travis Kelsey, if he even is even playing next year, cannot be this big of a part of your offense. You gotta, you gotta do better in those spots. And I don't think like the windows closed. I don't think the windows shut. This has just been such a weird season where you look, you'll look at all the offensive metrics and they're still top five, top six.

10:35Austin Gayle:You look at just point differential coming into this game. They perform more like an eight and four team than a six and six team. But I know what you're saying. You're yelling at me. Hang the banner, Sheil. I'm with you. You don't hang the banner that, hey, we're good in point differential. I get it because last year they got all the breaks and they got to the Super Bowl. This year, they're not getting any of the breaks and they might miss out on the playoffs. So Austin, is it over? I guess is the question. Cause I was on the old athletics playoff simulator, which I'm on all the time this time of year.

11:02Austin Gayle:If they win out four games left, they actually have a 52 % chance to make the playoffs, which that's not a great percentage, but it's a coin flip, a little better than a coin flip there if they win their final four games. I actually think they can. I will not count them completely out until they're mathematically eliminated. Do you think it's over? I'm going to have to see the body before I'm willing to call the Chiefs dead, especially if there's a situation where if they win out against the Chargers, the Titans, the Broncos, and the Raiders. they're favored in all those games they're they're favored in all those games their hardest games are going to be the chargers coming up and then obviously the broncos in two weeks both those games are in arrowhead if they win out they have a better than 50 chance of making the playoffs we don't know what's going to happen obviously some other injuries in the afc happening today like obviously there's a chance now do i believe in this team winning three games probably road games to get to the super bowl no and i think it's specifically again like in this playoff field though really I honestly and I know third don't third down stats are noisy but I don't really feel that way with the offensive stats or the defensive stats because I think on defense Chris Jones is the only player along the defensive line that can go get a bucket when you need to pin your ears back and make a play on the quarterback and then offensively Mahomes is the only guy I think reliably making plays his scramble yards on third downs are up way big it's the most he's ever scrambled in terms of yardage in weeks one through 14 ever and you have the drops you have you don't have these consistent playmakers.

12:32Travis Kelsey is a shell of himself. Like, I don't know if this team, when it matters most, when you need to pin your ears back and go get a play on third down on either side of the ball, they have the guys to do it.

12:40Austin Gayle:I will say Spags was cooking for a stretch there in the second half though. That was like vintage Spags. And then they fail on fourth down and then CJ Stroud, give him credit. We'll talk more about the Texans this week, but yeah, he made a couple of big plays there on third down. They didn't settle for a field goal on the one they scored the touchdown. So I'm looking at the AFC standings and I'm just like, man, I don't know who I'm going to pick by the time we get to the playoffs. So let's see. They got to win next week. Obviously, they got a chance if they can win out, but nothing is in their control anymore.

13:11Austin Gayle:The Kansas City Chiefs, who would have thought it, might be out of the playoffs. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We talk a little Ravens-Steelers. The Ringer NFL Show is brought to you by FanDuel. Football fans, the best way to game day is on FanDuel. FanDuel is your home for all your favorite NFL bets from yards to touchdowns to who will win. With FanDuel, any play can be the play of the game. And FanDuel is giving all customers a 30 % PBT for the Eagles vs. Chargers game tonight. So make FanDuel your go-to app for any snap. Head to FanDuel.com slash Ringer NFL. Play your game with FanDuel, an official sports betting partner of the NFL.

13:54Austin Gayle:Must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt-in required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas, and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there.

14:42Austin Gayle:I just have to click, click. They know I'm not paying for shipping. I'm going to that Prime link, can order it. It shows up at the door. It's in a box, so it doesn't give anything away. I sneak it upstairs, and there you go. They will see it on Christmas morning. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. Need some holiday magic? It's on Prime. Head to amazon.com slash prime to shop now. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. All right, Austin, question number two coming out of week 14. How did Sunday's result change your view of the AFC North?

15:21Austin Gayle:Go ahead. I'll let you start us off on this one. What do you got? How this, obviously the Steelers go into Baltimore, beat the Ravens 27, 22. They're now the favorites. They're now in first place. Where are you with the Ravens, the Steelers, the division? I think the Steelers are going to win the division. I do. I didn't think that was going to be something after this week. I think last week we were talking about how Mike Tomlin and he's going to have this losing streak. The fans at the stadium are booing renegade. You know, Rogers looks, everything looked bad for the Steelers. I think everyone was out even on Tomlin last week, and that's exactly when.

15:55That's the perfect buy signal when the Steelers are going to be just this really scrappy team and find a way to win on the road in Baltimore against a talented, and I think you have to stress talented, Baltimore Ravens team that has not been able to put it together. I have no faith in this Baltimore Ravens team in clutch situations. I said this before, but I think that there are two talented of a football team, Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, we can go on and on. Too talented to just constantly shit their pants in these clutch situations.

16:27And obviously there's Lamar jokes and Jack joke right there. But they, to me, in these situations where you need a big play, you need a clutch play, they're going to do something stupid. And some of that I think is coaching. Some of that is just this propensity to do stupid things. But I watched this game and there's so many reasons on paper when you look at how they stack talent-wise against these other teams for why you feel like this Ravens team should be competitive, should be Super Bowl competitive. That's how everyone felt prior to the season. But when you watch it snap to snap, it's like they are going to make mistakes in these clutch situations, boneheaded penalties, tackles for loss, bad sacks, bad turnovers.

17:03And at the end of the day, I actually have more faith in the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers, who I was counting out after last week, than I do the Baltimore Ravens, despite even when they're healthy, having all this talent.

17:14Austin Gayle:You know what's different though about this Ravens team? Like that, that characterization of previous Ravens teams was like, they're, they are a potentially great team. They are a Superbowl contender, but man, in these big moments, in these big spots, they seem to come up short. This isn't that team. This team isn't that good for quarters one through four. It feels like, I mean, I think, I think they're mediocre across the board. I hear what you're saying with the talent, but what evidence do we have? Like, I keep waiting for it. I'm finished waiting on it for this Ravens team. I don't think it's happening.

17:44Austin Gayle:I don't know what they do well. I mean, nothing on offense seems to be in structure. Everyone gave Todd Munkin his flowers last year. Now, every time Lamar drops back to pass, it's like, what is happening here? You know, he's got to create or nothing's happening. The run game is terrible. The run game was terrible today and has not been good. It has been league average. They can't rush the passer. There are times where Aaron Rodgers is back there just waiting, waiting, waiting, and then throwing the ball down. I mean, they got cooked by Aaron Rodgers down, downfield today, Austin, you and I have spent many minutes on this podcast being like, the Steelers do not throw the ball downfield.

18:17Austin Gayle:The Steelers' average depth of target is this. The Steelers do not create any explosive plays. And Aaron Rodgers came out. He played well today. And he was cooking their defensive backs one-on-one on the outside to DK Metcalf. So it's not just this game. You know, you could really make the... This was a coin flip game. You could really say, you know, you get the penalty on the Steelers' field goal where then they get the first down and it turns into a touchdown. You get the catch, no catch with Isaiah Likely. Where are you? Do you have a strong take for me on whether that was a catch or not? I wonder, I brought this quote from, it was the, I think, Vice President of Instant Replay, Mark Butterworth, who, incredible, by the way.

18:54How much of that are you making up right now? Honestly, is this just for a social clip or something? NFL Vice President of Instant Replay, Mark Butterworth, said that for it to be a touchdown, a receiver has to maintain possession of the ball through three steps, likely had the first two with control and both his left and right foot down. However, he didn't fulfill the third step with an act with this whole thing they've been throwing in an act common to the game. They pressed him. It's like, what's an act common to the game? And the guy says Butterworth, a third step. So help me with this. If you're catching a ball along the sideline in the end zone, you only need two steps for it to be a catch.

19:31But if it's in the middle of the end zone, you need a third step or an act common to the game, which I don't understand how him stretching the ball out, clearly showing possession isn't an act. This felt like to me of all the like weird stuff, there was the Aaron Rodgers interception or was it an interception that Teddy Buchanan thing where they're arguing over it, but Travis Jones thing is a penalty, right? Like it sucks and you don't really see it a lot, but like you can't hit the long snapper. It's a stupid thing, but like it's a penalty. The Isaiah likely thing I have, I did not understand in any way.

19:58I don't understand why we're introducing to the catch rule, which is obviously every single year we're asking ourselves, what is a catch that you need to make a third step. if you're in the end zone to secure that. There are so many plays. You're telling me if Isaiah likely caught two, did the two feet and then fell down, that would, would that be a catch? Or did he need to make it? It does not make sense to me, this whole third step thing. I think they really introduced something stupid to the catch role, bringing up this act common to the game and this whole third step in the end zone thing.

20:25It is bewildering.

20:26Austin Gayle:Listen, I hate to, I really hate talking about this because I know Roger somewhere being like, oh, see, you know, people are talking about it. So no, you know, it's all good. But, you know, like he doesn't care. He's happy that we're talking about what a freaking catch is. But just to clarify what you're saying to the listeners, the actual rule is an act common to the game. Like it's not written in the rule book that it has to be a third step. So it is very vague. It is subjective. It is, you know, the NFL rule. It is classic NFL rule book where now the official has to determine what is an act common to the game.

20:58Austin Gayle:And in their eyes, in this situation, it had to be the third step or something else. I'm with you. I mean, I don't know what the answer is, but I felt like watching that, that's a catch. Two feet are down, the play is over, and now the ball comes out of there. So yeah, I'm with you. He also was in the process of his third step, which is him trying to make a third step, not an act common to the game. Like this act common to the game stuff needs to be taken out of the rule. I never want to hear it again. That makes zero sense to me. That is terrible. That is terrible. We should bleep that on this podcast.

21:28Austin Gayle:It's like a curse word. We cannot say it. Act common to the game. man. Even beyond like the ticky tack stuff with like, there's the ref stuff and there's calls going both ways. I think what's real about, and you brought up Tom Onkin, who was getting his flowers last year. I think in high leverage situations on third downs and in the red zone, the Ravens have been deplorable, right? They're, they're 20, they're 30th in red zone efficiency this year. That's scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Only the Texans and the saints have been worse on third down dropbacks among quarterbacks with 30, 300 dropbacks, at least this year, Lamar Jackson is second to last in success rate on third downs.