The Only MVP Candidates I’m Considering

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia, flying solo today because we are talking potential MVP candidates for the upcoming season. Here's the thing. The MVP award is actually very predictable. I looked back at the last 10 years and identified the boxes a player has to check off to win MVP. And I'm going to share those qualifications with you. Then I'm going to go through the field and make picks. And so what I did, I didn't want to just give you the top tier candidates. So I've divided them up into three different tiers. Tier three, the long shots. These are guys who are way down the list with the FanDuel odds, greater than plus 2 ,000.

0:42But you know what? I got a couple of juicy sleepers in this tier that I have my eye on. Tier number two, you have my attention. These are names you know who have a shot but might not be in that top, top tier when you look at the betting markets. And then tier one, the usual suspects. These are the four players with the best odds. You want to guess who they are? Go ahead. You can probably guess who they are. You'll find out later in the pod. But I'm going to pick the one out of those four, out of those four favorites that I think has the best chance to win MVP. So before we get to it, just wanted to remind everyone, all of these podcasts are available, full episodes on video on the Spotify app, on YouTube, Ringer NFL.

1:28So make sure you go ahead and follow those channels. And of course, on Instagram, we're putting up a bunch of clips from these shows. It's been a lot of fun. Ringer NFL show on Instagram. All right, let's take a quick break. Then I come back and we talk MVPs. This episode is presented by American Eagle. Whether you're hanging out at home or headed out for a training session, American Eagle has you covered with a ton of new stuff. We're talking super comfy heavyweight hoodies and joggers that look and feel great, sweat wicking active shorts that are good to go anytime, anywhere, new move-free jeans made from a crazy comfy real-looking denim, and their biggest underwear collection of the year with striped solid and print styles to fill your drawer.

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3:29All right, so here's the formula for who wins MVP. There's four criteria. One, got to be a quarterback. The last time a non-quarterback won this award was 2012. And guess what? That is how it should be. You don't need to have some kind of contrarian take on this that all my quarterbacks get. No, it should be a quarterback. It's going to be a quarterback. We're weeding everyone else out in the candidate pool. So that's number one. Number two, team success. How do we define that? If you look back at the last 10 years, every single MVP winner has been the one or the two seed in their conference, every single one.

4:08And since the schedule moved to 17 games, every MVP winner has been on a team that has won at least 13 games. So this is like the big one. We'll talk about the other factors, but this is the big one. If you're not on a team that can win at least 13 games and be the one or the two seed, you have almost no shot. We might discuss you, you might come up on a top five list, but you're probably almost certainly not going to win MVP. So that's the second one, team success. Number three, the numbers. You need the counting stats. I got to be able to go to your pro football reference page and say, hey, this guy threw for 40 touchdowns or threw for 4 ,500 yards and ran for 900 yards, whatever the case may be, you got to have those counting stats.

4:53But what I found going back and looking at all the guys who have one MVP is that the nerds have kind of won this debate here over old school stats versus new school stats. Because if you look at it, the guys who win MVP are almost always top three in the nerd stats, stuff like expected points added, you might see EPA. They rank up there. So the nerds have spoken and the nerds say, no, you can't just pile up meaningless stats. You got to have the good stats as well. So that's number three, the numbers. And then finally, the narrative. Now, this one is subjective. There's no doubt about it. But I do think it matters when you have two guys that are close, when there's a tiebreaker.

5:38What story are you telling? Are we excited by picking this player as MVP? Were there specific moments, maybe primetime games, nationally televised games where you go, man, that is going to be a moment I remember from the 2025 season. Is there fatigue around the player? That happens in all sports. The old Michael Jordan, Carl Malone debate in the NBA. Are we tired of picking the same guys? Do we want someone new? So again, this one is less important. I don't think narrative alone is enough to make you win MVP. But if it's close between a couple of players, I do think it comes into play. All right.

6:14So those are their criteria. Got to be a quarterback that wins around 13 games as a one or the two seed. Got to have the stats. And then you have to win the narrative. So who fits? Again, three tiers here. And tier three, we've got the long shots. Two players in this category intrigue me, Brock Purdy and CJ Stroud. I don't know when I became the Brock Purdy guy at the Ringer. I don't know if I was on vacation and someone put something in my profile at work or what, but I came back and I'm like, Brock Purdy, you know, this guy, we need to defend Brock Purdy more. So I have become that guy somehow.

6:51And I want to make the case that Brock Purdy actually does have a chance to win MVP this year. If you listen to the shows earlier this week, I did one with Danny Heifetz and we talked about how the 49ers had the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their over-under for wins is 10.5. It's a very big number. I mean, they're right there with like the legit contenders in the NFL. And then you look at history in 2023, they went 12 and four with Brock Purdy. So getting to that one or two seed, you know, winning 13 games, that's within the realm of possibilities, the range of outcomes for Brock Purdy. So I think he checks off that box for team success.

7:31Then you look at the numbers and we've seen that Purdy is capable of putting up monster numbers in a Kyle Shanahan offense. You know, Purdy could have a stat line where he throws for 4 ,500 yards, completes 70 % of his passes, 33 touchdowns, nine interceptions, something like that. If you go back and you look at 2023, I mean, his numbers were pretty close to that, that season. And then the advanced stats, they all have been very kind to Purdy over the course of his career. Back in 2023, he finished first in total EPA. So he's got that kind of ceiling where you say, all right, numbers, he could have the numbers.

8:06He certainly could have the team success. And then you get to the narrative and boy, there have been a lot of narratives about Brock Burdy since he took over as the 49er starter. And I think this is where it really gets tricky for him because we know that if the 49ers win 13 games and the offense plays well, who's going to get most of the credit? It is going to be Kyle Shanahan. And then you throw in, hey, maybe Christian McCaffrey comes back healthy and he puts up big numbers. Now, all of a sudden, we're getting back into that conversation of, hey, Brock Purdy doesn't have to do that much. He's got McCaffrey.

8:43He's got Shanahan. Come on, we can't give this guy MVP. And that could happen. So how does that not happen? How does it flip to where we're giving Brock Purdy the credit? I think it's something like we saw in the first 10 games last year, where he really wasn't getting a lot of help. The 49ers had guys who were injured. He was pushing the ball downfield. It wasn't yards after short throws, yards after the catch. No, he was pushing the ball downfield. He was throwing into tight windows. Third down, he was good. He was pressured and he was still making plays. I mean, it was clear. If you watched the first 10 weeks last season, Brock Purdy was being asked to do more than he had been asked to do previously in his career.

9:25So now you fast forward to this year and the 2025 49ers, this isn't shaping up to be the most quarterback-friendly, offensively offense or situation in the NFL when you look at their offensive line, when you look at their injuries at wide receiver. So if Purdy is still able to perform and they're able to pile up wins, all of a sudden, you know what we're going to get. We're going, hey, Brock Purdy never got enough credit before. He's not getting enough credit now. I might be one of the people yelling about this. He doesn't have the wide receivers and he's still putting up big numbers and the offense is still really good.

10:00So I think that's the formula he kind of needs to win the narrative and get the credit in 2025. So Purdy's one guy I have in this tier. The other guy I have in this tier, CJ Stroud. And recently, I'm consuming all the preseason NFL content, hearing what people have to say. I've been wondering, are the Houston Texans the team that everyone thinks the Denver Broncos are going to be. What's missing? They don't have kind of the Sean Payton propaganda campaign, or Payton's just telling anyone with a mic, anyone who will listen, hey, we're Super Bowl contenders. Hey, our defense is awesome. Hey, Bo Nix is, I love Bo Nix.

10:40He's going to make the leap. D 'Amico Ryans isn't doing any of that. But guess what? I like the Texans defense better than the Broncos defense this year. And the The Texans have won 10 plus games in back-to-back seasons. And I think CJ Stroud probably has a higher ceiling than Bo Nix. So again, they've won 10 games last year. They've been in the divisional round back-to-back seasons. Could the Texans win 13 games? I'm not going to predict that. I'm a little nervous about that offensive line, but it's not that far away when you look at what they've done the past two seasons. And also you look at the division that they play in there in the AFC South.

11:19So I think the team success aspect for Stroud is in play. Then you look at the numbers. And when he was a rookie, CJ Stroud performed at a top 10 level and all the nerd stats. He threw for over 4 ,000 yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions. That was as a rookie. And so I think this would need to be a career year for him, you know, where it's got to be better basically than the numbers he put up his rookie season, or he's not going to be in the MVP conversation. But he's got Nico Collins, a legit number one wide receiver. He's got other receivers that I like. And then the big question is the Texans offensive line.

11:55I mean, listen, if this looks stupid, if you're all ripping me seven weeks in going, I can't believe you mentioned him as an MVP candidate. Chances are it's going to be because that offensive line just stinks once again. And that's entirely possible that the offensive line is just terrible. The moves they made in the offseason don't do much. He's just getting crushed. He's getting sacked. He's getting hit. He's developing bad habits. All those things are in play. But if the offensive line can just get to respectability, it doesn't have to be great, just get to respectability. I think Stroud actually could put up big numbers in this offense with the new offensive coordinator.

12:32So if the Texans win a lot of games, if he puts up stats, you know what we're going to say. We're going to anoint him as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, that already happened during CJ Stroud's rookie season. And last year, he took a step back. Again, the offensive line was terrible. The coaching was not great. And he developed some bad habits. But we saw the narrative starting to shape two years ago. And I think people will want to recapture that narrative if he plays well this season. So Purdy and Stroud, they're my two favorites from this tier. I think if I had to pick one, I'm going to pick one from each tier.

13:07I'm not going to just sit on the fence here. I think I would go with Purdy if I had to pick one out of those two. I'm just nervous about the Texans' ability to scheme around that offensive line. I'm a little nervous about the first-time play caller. Nick Caley could be good. I mean, there could be a higher ceiling there, but there's some uncertainty with those two aspects that make me a little nervous. I just think the 49ers have a better chance of piling up wins and Purdy has a better chance to pile up stats. So Brock Purdy is my pick from Tier 3. All right, let's take a break. We come back and we get to tier two.

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14:52But mindset alone doesn't get you moving again. That's where Icy Hot steps in. Ice works fast. Heat makes it last. So when the rest of the world settles because of a setback, Icy Hot accelerates your comeback with fast-acting, powerful pain relief. Icy Hot, you're so back. All right, I have three guys in tier two. This is the you have my attention tier. I've got Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love. So let's go over these three guys in tier two. With Daniels, you have the obvious narrative. Putting Washington football back on the map, exciting young player, beloved by his fan base, could be the next great quarterback.

15:38Like in my opinion, when I was doing this, In terms of narrative, I think voters would be all in on picking Jaden Daniels to be MVP. It's kind of like that new and fun stage of the relationship where everything's just rosy and you're seeing only the good things, none of the bad things, none of the anti-Jaden Daniels stuff will have creeped up yet. So I think the narrative with Jaden Daniels is pretty easy. So he checks off that box. Can he put up monster numbers? Absolutely. You know, like a 4 ,000-yard passing, 1 ,000-yard rushing season. That's in play with Jaden Daniels. And the advanced stats love him.

16:16So he checks off that box in terms of putting up big numbers. Now we get to the tricky part. Can the Washington Commanders get to 13 wins and be the one or the two seed in the NFC? Now, on the surface, you say, absolutely. They won 12 games last year. 12 games might be good enough to be the one or the two seed in the NFC this year. But sure, it's one more game. They can get to 13. There's another side to that. And we talked about it on the pod earlier this week, that there are some reasons to think Washington might come back to the pack a little bit in 2025. They were eight and two in one score games last year.

16:57They were maybe the best fourth down team of all time. And so you look at those things, and they're not typically things that would carry over from one season to the next. So I think there's some boom or bust to the commanders. There's some boom or bust to just, you know, how we're talking about Jaden Daniels at the end of the season. But when you're talking about MVP, the downside doesn't matter that much. You know, you're only looking at guys who have that ceiling. And I do think Jaden Daniels and the commanders do have that ceiling. So I've got him in this tier. Next guy in this tier, Jalen Hurts.

17:33So he's kind of, I don't want to say the opposite, but it's a different case for Jalen Hurts than Jaden Daniels. Can the Eagles get to 13 wins? Absolutely. I mean, they are 37 and nine. Let me repeat that. 37 and nine in the last three years when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes a game. So not to get morbid, but I tell the Eagles fans in my life, you probably will never see a stretch like this again in your lifetime. So anything can happen. But in terms of the wins total, getting the one or two seed in the NFC, that's definitely in play for this Eagles team. And then the tricky case with Hurts is that I think the stats are actually linked to the narrative.

18:15Because there's always going to be the yeah, but with Jalen Hurts. Yeah, but he has a top five offensive line. Yeah, but he has Saquon Barkley. Yeah, but he has A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith. And guess what? Those things are all valid. He's in a great situation. It's the best situation for a quarterback in the NFL. So if the numbers are just okay, like last year, you know, he threw for under 3 ,000 yards. They were a run-heavy team. They prioritized not turning the football over. If it's that kind of season, it's not going to get it done. No one's going to be talking about Jalen Hurts as the MVP.

18:50The numbers have to be so overwhelming that you can make the argument, sure, he's in a great situation, but guess what? He maximized that great situation. Like if you look at 2022, he threw for over 3 ,700 yards. He ran for 760 yards and that was in just 15 games. And he finished second in MVP voting that year in 2022. So he's been up there already one season. So if he plays all 17 games, could he challenge like Jaden Daniels, 4 ,000 passing yards, 1 ,000 rushing yards. I'm not saying it's a lock that he would get there, but that kind of season is in play where he puts up monster numbers and you're saying, all right, he's in a great situation.

19:32But listen, the guy doesn't lose games. He won a Super Bowl last year. That works in his favor. And now look at what he's doing this year after winning the Super Bowl. So I think that's in play for Jalen Hurts. And then the last guy in this group who I'll be honest, looking at the odds. I was kind of surprised because I thought he felt like more of a long shot, but that's Jordan Love. And Jordan Love has the same MVP odds as Jalen Hurts. Now, Love to me, if you are a frequent listener of the Ringer NFL show, you know I'm a Jordan Love fan, but he is a high variance quarterback. And so I think there's going to be a season in his career, I'll say maybe in the next three years where he plays all 17 games.

20:15He kind of goes on a heater. They win a lot of games. He puts up monster numbers and we're talking about him as an MVP candidate. Is that going to be this year? I'm not sure. I think it could be. I think he's got that kind of ceiling, but again, there is variance where depending on what week you turn on Jordan Love, You could think he's a top five quarterback in the NFL. You could think, why do people even like this guy? You know, he's spraying the ball all over the place. So that's the first part of it with Jordan Love. And then you look at team success with this Packers team. I've got them as a playoff team.

20:51They won 11 games last year. They've made the playoffs in five or six seasons with Matt LaFleur. Can they get to 13 wins and the one or the two seed? I'm not predicting that, but I think it's in play. Like when you look at the team success aspect, I think it's in play for Jordan Love and the Packers, even if it's not as likely as it might be with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The numbers, you know, Jordan Love threw for over 4 ,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions two years ago. He passed the nerd, you know, the nerd stat test that season. Last year, he deals with three different injuries, did not play as well.

21:27I do think he bounces back this year, assuming he's healthy and gets kind of better injury luck there. So I do think Jordan Love can pass the numbers test where he can put up big numbers this year in that Packers offense. The narrative is sort of similar to Stroud. You know, two years ago, we're talking about these guys as two of the better young quarterbacks in the NFL. Maybe they both didn't have the year some of us were expecting last year. But I think you could get back to that with Jordan Love where you say, wow, he's making the leap this year. And the thing with Love is that there's some flash to his game.

22:01There will be specific wow throws that go viral. The film grinders will be posting the All-22. Oh my gosh, look at this window. Look at his arm angle from Jordan Love. So he's got that working for him where when he's hot, he's a very fun quarterback to watch. So it comes down to Daniels, Hurts, and Love in this tier. As I was going through it, I eliminated Love first. He's off the island. Love is off the island. Just because his chances for team success, I think, are lower than Jalen Hurts. And his chances to put up big numbers and maybe even win the narrative are lower than Jaden Daniels. So as I was going through process of elimination here, I thought maybe he was one tier below Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts.

22:49So ultimately, it came down to those two guys in this tier. And I looked at it and I got Daniels as the pick from this tier. because I looked at it and Daniels had better numbers than Hertz last year with significantly less help. He was in a far worse situation. And so it's not all about numbers, but as I've mentioned, numbers do matter when it comes to MVP voting. And so if you look at it this way, if the commanders are the one or the two seed and they win 13 games, Jaden Daniels is going to get all of the credit. It's not going to be like, oh, Dan Quinn or Cliff Kingsbury or Terry McLaurin. Those guys are, it's going to be Jaden Daniels.

23:33Wow. Look at what this guy's doing in Washington, kind of putting the team on his back. If Jalen Hurts is the one or the two seed and wins 13 games, he will get a share of the credit. There will still be all those other arguments that I made. Vic Fangio, defense, offensive line, A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, Saquon Barkley. So it's a trickier case for Hertz. Ultimately, that's what it came down to. I felt like Daniels is going to have an easier case if his team wins a lot of games. So I got Jaden Daniels in tier two, Brock Purdy in tier three, and then we go to tier one, the usual suspects. All right.

24:10The four favorites, if you guessed earlier, let's see if you were right. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes. And so these guys, I mean, Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen have combined to win five of the last seven MVP awards. Burrow has finished top five in MVP voting two of the last three years. So all these guys are capable of putting up ridiculous numbers. We don't even need to go into that. We know it. Go check their pro football reference pages. We've seen it in previous seasons. It's not going to come down to that. They're all capable of putting up crazy numbers. So then it comes down to team success and to narrative.

24:50And so team success, that's an easy yes for Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. I mean, you just go through it quickly. Ravens are 25 and eight with Jackson over the last two seasons. The Bills have won between 11 and 13 games for five straight seasons with Josh Allen. Like if he's on the field, they're winning between 11 and 13 games. And then the Chiefs. The Chiefs have averaged 13 wins. Average, not their peak, averaged 13 wins with Patrick Mahomes over the last five seasons. So along with the Eagles, these three teams, the Ravens, the Bills, and the Chiefs, they have the best Super Bowl odds.

25:30I'm not worried about their team success this year. This is where if I'm projecting, I think Burrow is the first guy to get weeded out, kicked off the island. It's not impossible that the Bengals get the one or the two seed, but it's far less likely than with those other guys. I mean, Bengals went 12 and four in 2022. Since then, Joe Burrow's last 27 starts, they are 14 and 13, 14 and 13 in his last 27 starts. Now, let me be clear, everybody. That's not Joe Burrow's fault. We all watch the games. I understand it's not Joe Burrow's fault, but that same story could play out again this year where Burrow's playing great.

26:16The offense looks great. The defense doesn't look great. And they're not coming close to that ceiling you need to win 13 games to be considered an MVP candidate. Now I've got the Bengals still sneaking in, but even then, I mean, I'm bullish on the Bengals and think they can maybe overcome some stuff on defense, but it's still going to limit them. I've got them 10 wins, 11 wins maybe. They got the Ravens in their own division who they have to contend with. And then even if they win the AFC North, you have to jump the Chiefs or the Bills to get the one or the two seed in the AFC. Again, there haven't been any exceptions to that rule in the last 10 years.