The Packers Are on Fraud Watch, and Who Will Surprise in the AFC?

0:00Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Week four started with a wild fourth quarter in Dublin and ended with a 40-40 tie between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. We got a lot to get to. So we're going to play a little game with my friend Diante Lee called Buy, Sell, Hold on three topics. No podcast has ever done a game like this before. We are the first in case you're wondering. We each have to pick one that we're buying, one that we're selling, and one that we're holding. So, Deontay, here are the three storylines we've got. One, the Packers belong on Fraud Watch.

0:38Diante Lee:Two, the AFC is ripe for a surprise contender. And three, the Jackson Dart bump is real. So we got to assign buy, sell, or hold to each of those. Does that make sense, Deontay, or did I already confuse the audience? Look, I think I can follow. I can follow well enough. give me anything more than three options, my defensive coordinator brain kind of starts going haywire a little bit, but I think I can follow this one for the sake of the show. Okay, there we go. Three topics. All right, let's take a break. Let's come back and get to it. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel and the NFL is officially back.

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3:27Diante Lee:all right we're back so here we go three storylines one more time buy sell or hold you can play along at home in your car on your walk whatever you're doing the packers belong on fraud watch the afc is ripe for a surprise contender and the jackson dart bump is real all right the first one the green bay packers on fraud watch Deontay I'm holding on this one okay I'm trying to settle down we just finished watching the game I'm reminding myself that it's still early having said that I would be disgusted if I were a Packers fan I mean you watch that game they get the ball back with 440 left in overtime at that point Matt LaFleur Jordan Love you know you need a touchdown to win the game right do you recognize that because that's what your mindset should be.

4:12Diante Lee:You have timeouts and yet you completely botched the clock. I mean, there is no scenario where you should be rushing to get a potential game winning playoff, like the biggest play of the game. You're rushing to get that playoff there. It was just, I mean, taking their sweet old time, Jordan loves pass hangs in the air and the clock stops at one save doesn't stop at one second. It is an all time loss that like we're telling our kids and grandkids about. So that's one. And then the defensive performance, Deontay. I mean, I thought this defense was beyond this, this type of performance, you know, they played well last year.

4:50Diante Lee:They've been pretty good this year. This was the worst single game defensive performance of the season based on EPA per drive. And so you got all this coming off the last week's loss to the Browns and don't talk to me about injuries. Cause go look at who the Cowboys were playing offensively in this game. So again, it's still September. I think they're going to be a good team, but I think they've got a lot of work to do. Deontay, are you buy, sell, or hold that the Packers belong on Fraud Watch? Well, the nice thing about the way we've gamified this is that we can come to some kind of agreement if you tie it up right with your hold.

5:23And I'm going to hold as well, right? I will say I'm holding, but this game is a great example for why some people hear us talk about the Packers and the kind of contenders they can be. And they shrug us off, you know, and they wave us off. And there's no way. And it's because this team just has these immature looking moments, right? You think about the end of this game that smacks up a team that just is not prepared to execute the way that they need to execute to be able to close out a game. You know, the clock management past that, throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage as often as they did at the end of the fourth quarter and in overtime.

6:02I'm like, I get it. You love a bubble screen. You love a swing screen. I love them too. When they're open, maybe not when the clock is rolling and we're low on timeouts and a touchdown wins the football game. There were so many times where I was sitting here looking and I'm staring at Green Bay sideline, like, Hey, anytime you guys realize that you're down three and not two, and we start acting accordingly, that would be great. And we didn't see that. But ultimately I'm not out. I'm not selling because I do think that this is about as big an aberration in terms of defensive performance as Green Bay will have all season.

6:36I think that truly a lot of this is a Dak Prescott masterclass in getting the ball out before he can get hit at knowing where his offensive line is weak and making sure that he is always prepared and setting protections and working in the pocket to mitigate some of the weaknesses that his offensive line may have had in pass protection this week. And he did that without it coming at the expense of him pushing the ball downfield. That is one of the hardest things for us to witness in quarterback play is knowing that you don't have a ton of time, knowing that you're going to have to extend if you want to push a ball downfield and not having that affect the way that you approach your dropbacks on a down to down basis.

7:14So I think I give more credit on the way that this game played out to Dallas's offense. I think that they'll get back on on defense for Green Bay and then offensively for the Packers. I think that this is kind of perfect case scenario. I do think if there's a big picture takeaway, it's you see the importance of the run game for this offense because they absolutely need it to keep their quarterback from having to be a 40, 45, 50 drop back guy. I just don't know based on his play style, if you really want him playing that kind of way.

7:42Diante Lee:Matt LaFleur agrees with you based on it. I mean, everything we see it's I mean, even as good as their offense was, there are times in these games where I'm like, does Matt LaFleur trust Jordan Love? I mean, you mentioned it with, I think his average depth, the target at one point was like four something last year was, well, I mean, last week it was 1.6. They're at the end of regulation. And I'm like, guys, you might want to get closer than like 52 yards for this. And they're handing the football off there. So yeah, I agree with you there. I think the run game is important. I think they think the run game is important there for the Green Bay Packers.

8:16Diante Lee:Yeah, we'll see where the, did you have the, now I had the thought a couple of weeks ago and I can't get it out of my head. And I know Micah Parsons didn't have much of an impact on this game, but that Cowboys team with Micah Parsons on the other side, I mean, where are they? And with the way Dak Prescott's playing and, you know, if they were to get healthy in November or something, who knows what that offense is going to look like. I can't help it. You know, that, that thought will not exit my head when I watched the Cowboys offense play well. How could it, how could it, when you're watching Dak Prescott spin up this masterpiece of a game?

8:50How could you not think if they had a closer as a pass rusher, just a star pass rusher, a guy who can help facilitate turnovers because of his presence with getting after the quarterback or creating plays in the backfield to send an offense behind the sticks, especially knowing the way that they want to play defense with Matt Aberflus. not they don't want to blitz as often as they've had to this year they'd like to play more zone coverage you are going to have to rely on a four uh four man rush if they had a guy like Parsons this would be the perfect candidate of are they a great team probably not do they have exactly the recipe that you need to upset a great team yes because when CeeDee Lamb is healthy and now what we've seen out of George Pickens you can reliably look at this offense and I would say Javante Williams in this run game as well and say, this team is a hot two week stretch from you looking up and seeing them in the NFC championship game, even though they've been the underdogs in each of the three weeks in each of the games that they played in the playoffs in, in the way that they're set up now, this feels very much like, um, Cincinnati added in 2021, where you might need an all time turnover luck type of season for you to drag this team into the playoffs.

9:57And it's a shame because we probably are going to look up in December and say, Hey man, do you see all these jars that Dak is throwing for you see their success rate and they're seven and seven and it just doesn't matter they're probably going to be on the outside looking in and you hate it for them but this is the bed that they've made and making that trade with Michael Parsons that's right

10:14Diante Lee:they've had a top five offense and you know you add that to compliment it who knows what it looks like but anyway all right we're both hold on the Packers on fraud watch so we're not letting them off the hook but we're not buying we're selling next one the AFC is ripe for a surprise contender I'm selling this one, Deontay. And the thought is Ravens are now one and three. Chiefs win, but they're two and two. Bills obviously look good. They're undefeated, although that Saints game was a little bit closer for a while than most people thought. But might we get a surprise team? You know, Steelers start the day with a win.

10:49Diante Lee:They're three and one. The Colts are three and one. They had a chance to beat the Rams in that football game. The Jaguars, I suspect, are going to get some pop this week. They're three and one after their win over the Niners. The Chargers lose today, but they're three and one. So I think if you're a fan of those teams, you should enjoy it. But I'm selling because I still think it's Bill's Chiefs and Ravens, you know, and I think I probably am a little bit higher on the Chiefs after this one off than you are. I want to hear what you have to say, but I thought that was a very encouraging performance from their offense against the Ravens.

11:22Diante Lee:And I know the Ravens had all kinds of injuries, but we just haven't seen the Chiefs offense look like that. I mean, they had eight possessions with Patrick Mahomes in the game and they didn't punt. They scored seven times and missed a field goal. They looked more explosive with Xavier Worthy. This was a game where it feels like we haven't had one of these in a while. I'm like, OK, Andy Reid. I remember, you know, the things you are capable. You can still do this. You can still do this. Yes, it was a reminder. Patrick Mahomes, you can still feather that ball, you know, in the middle of the field over and underneath defender to Travis Kelsey.

11:53Diante Lee:So all those things, I add them up and they're all the way up to sixth in EPA per drive offensively on the season. So it's not just a one off thing. And other than the bills right now, I don't think there's a team I feel better than better about then than the Chiefs. So I still think it's Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. Do you buy or sell the idea of an AFC surprise contender? I'm buying right now. I do think a lot of that is based on how I feel about the Chiefs. So I think that you're right. in how you're prescribing this, right? And if you do genuinely believe that the margin between the Chiefs, and I would say the Bills right now, who are the class of the AFC at this time, if you believe that the margins between those two teams are still as tight in 2025 as they've been in 2024 and 2023, then I can see why you would sell.

12:41I think that for me, I look at Buffalo in a class of its own right now, as far as the regular season goes, right? Playoffs, its own entity. We'll talk about that as we get closer to it. I do think when I look at the Chiefs and the ways in which they can be vulnerable, and I would certainly say with the Ravens, which is a button that I've been kind of pushing since we spoke last on last Monday after their loss to Detroit. And I would say I'm probably tripling down on some of my sentiments now with the injuries and their defensive performance and where things are trending. And I think that a lot of this comes down to you trusting brands that have not given you a lot of reason to believe over the last few years, right?

13:19Right. Because we're talking about that. We're talking about this quartet of the Chargers, the Colts, the Jags and the Steelers. Right. Like, I do think that there's a little bit of a leap you have to make with all the quarterbacks, except for Justin Herbert, who has been playing like an MVP. I would say that this was as bad of a performance as Sunday, as you'll see from them in the regular season. You know, both interceptions, not only do they take potential scoring drives off the board for the Chargers, it puts the Giants in immediate scoring position. right so that definitely was felt big time but if you look at them on a down and down basis and on the whole over the first month of the season they do look like a legitimate contender I would say that besides Buffalo they've been the best team in the AFC on a play-by-play basis you know the result of this week notwithstanding and then I would say the Colts to me they outplayed the Rams today if A.D.

14:08Mitchell can kind of keep his wits about them for a couple of plays not only were they not only would they have won they probably would have won by two possessions You know, you give away an explosive touchdown as a receiver and then as a blocker, you get this like absolutely heartbreaking holding call that would have allowed you to take control of the game on a Jonathan Taylor touchdown. That would have been I think those two teams for me, I'm kind of looking at them and I'm pretty much buying where they are, especially, you know, compared to the Broncos, compared to where the Ravens are right now, compared to what I believe of the Chiefs right now.

14:41I think that those are the kinds of teams that I can legitimately look at and see the way that they're playing defense, how they're forcing turnovers, the fact that they're not usually turning the ball over on offense and they've been able to find some explosive plays. They've checked the boxes for me well enough for me to believe that they could be legitimate contenders by the time we're having these conversations again in December.

15:00Diante Lee:Yeah, you know, I've doubted the Colts basically every week. I'm like, all right, it's going to come to an end here. But man, I had eyes, close eyes on that game. I was like, feels like they're outplaying the Rams. for most of this game. Yeah, like you mentioned, those two plays right there. And obviously you get the 2-2 at, well, they only have 10 players on the field at the end, which is like, I don't know, I want to rip them, but also it's like, well, all right. The Colts defense has been good this year. I'll give you that one mulligan. I mean, it ends up costing you the game ultimately, but they haven't been bad this year.

15:30Diante Lee:Yeah, I mean, I can't get to the point where I'm going to think that the Colts are contenders unless it actually happens. I'll just be honest. Now I can give them more respect, which I'm giving them now because they have had a heck of a month. They've been the biggest surprise maybe in the entire NFL. So I give him respect. I'm with you on the Chargers, but now you got a Joe Alt injury in this game, which as of this recording, we don't know how serious it is, but to be down two offensive tackles, Justin Herbert has been hit 26 times in the last two weeks. And so we're just like - Not sustainable for him.

16:01Diante Lee:So we got to see what happens there, but I'm with you. It was a bad loss, but they have been good for a month here. Now we both still have the Ravens here, but they've got what seven or eight starters on defense did not finish this game because of injury. Lamar Jackson, we don't know the hamstring injury as of this recording. We don't know how healthy he is. I'm not giving up on them. If you told me Ravens or Steelers to win the AFC North, I still have the Ravens to win the AFC North. If you feel the same way, why? I do right now, but so much of this is going to be contingent on what we hear about Lamar Jackson.

16:39What we hear about Marlon Humphrey who left the game. What we hear about Nate Wiggins who had to be carted off on Sunday against the Chiefs. You know that Nandi Matabike is on IR. They still haven't even really specified the extent of his neck injury. Right. The last time John Harbaugh was asked, he was like, I'll say something that when the doctors say, I can say something about it, which to me sounds like, is it season over? Not good. Right. Like, you know, and they just don't want to admit it yet. They know, does this guy need surgery? And you're trying to avoid that as an option for as long as you can.

17:09So that doesn't make me feel good. And you just look at the numbers, man. And I wrote about it last week, coming into this week of games, you judge what the Ravens are right now in 2025 over the last decade of football. And you were talking about like a bottom 10 defensive performance over hundreds of teams that have played over the last decade. And that is not only is that totally out of character for the Ravens, that is the kind of thing that disqualifies you from being a legitimate contender. Now, Sunday, if people want to look Sunday and say Lamar Jackson, not his best outside of like the opening script.

17:42Totally fair. The turnovers are killer. I think that he is kind of falling back into some 2022 habits of managing the pocket poorly because he's anticipating pressure. Blitz comes and now he's panicking or making the worst out of it. These are a lot of conversations we were having before he got his extension. And we thought that maybe he turned a corner in 23 and 24 in that respect. This was not a great performance from him in that light, but really it's the defense. And I think that the margins have been way too thin for this team. This is a way I would expect to talk about the Chiefs who have had attrition on this roster year over year as you try to contend and you have less opportunities to improve your team.

18:19I would not expect a team with as many all pro level talents as that in the way that Baltimore does to be struggling the way they are on a week by week basis. And after this game, we have to legitimately say that they are trending in the wrong direction if you genuinely believe that they're contenders.

18:34Diante Lee:Yeah, it's unsettled. It's early, but it's unsettled. It could get worse if some of these injuries are really serious, if Lamar Jackson misses time, but it's sort of a wait and see there on the Ravens. Okay, so if I said I have a crystal ball and the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Bills, none of them are in the Super Bowl in the AFC, it sounds like you would say, all right, then the Chargers are in the AFC. I would say the Chargers. I would say the Chargers. The story would be that the Chargers are like the number one or number two defense in the NFL by year's end. And they're riding that defense to the end.

19:06And then Justin Herbert does just enough to keep that offensive float.

19:09Diante Lee:Okay. I agree. I agree with you. I would say Chargers. And then if it was like, hey, one of these teams or two of these teams go win 10 games, I'm with you too. I would go Chargers and Colts there. Steelers played really well today. I need to see more. Second hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. They've beaten Justin Fields. They beat a Patriots team that turned it over five times. and they beat Carson Wentz. And they won those games by a total of 12 points. So I just need to see more. Jags defense has surprise. They have stretches of offense that I like, but I don't really trust them quite yet.

19:42Diante Lee:So I need to see more with the Jaguars as well. All right, let's take a break. We come back, we get to the last one, Jackson Dart. This episode is brought to you by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. At Little Caesars, the pizzas are always large, so you'll always get more bite for less buck on game day. You know, I'm not high maintenance. I'm a simple guy. Just give me a plain cheese, like they said, large. Eat it all day. Eat it for lunch. Come back. Have a little slice later in the afternoon for dinner. I mean, what's better than that? And right now you can get 15 % off orders over$15 on NFL game days with code GAMEDAY.

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21:25with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify.

21:32Diante Lee:All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Last one, the Jackson Dart bump is real. And I can't believe I'm saying this, Deontay, but you know, we did some rearranging after that Wild Packers-Cowboys game to let people behind the curtain. And now I ended up with, out of these three, I'm buying that one. Now, please do not even think about putting in the newspaper that Shiel Kapati is adding to the Jackson Dart hype. That's not what, there's going to be enough of that. I can already see it coming. Here's what specifically I am buying, Deontay, and see if you let me off the hook here or not. Brian Dayball took a big step forward towards shaping the narrative.

22:09Diante Lee:And I think that's what a lot of this is about. Can he buy himself some time beyond this year? This isn't just about wins and losses. This is about job security. And I can already see the narrative shaping in New York. I mean, Dayball's reaction with Dart after the game, then just passionately, you know, holding each other and just yelling into each other's faces. Like, that's the type of stuff the media, maybe the fan base, maybe ownership is going to eat up. And there were some exciting moments for Jackson Dart. At the end of the day, he threw for 111 yards and he took five sacks. Now, numbers are not supposed to be amazing.

22:45Diante Lee:Your first start as a rookie in the NFL. I'm just saying the reaction and the hype are going to outweigh the actual performance. And I think for Brian Dayball, it's about like, all right, can you just tie yourself to this guy and be like, hey, I need to be the one to develop him. The fan base is excited about him. You got to give me another year. It'd be crazy to send me on my way. So in terms of that, I am buying the Jackson Dart bump. What's the one you have left? Sell. I'm selling. Come on, man, I'm selling. And, you know, just to let, you know, to break the fourth wall and let people behind the curtain, as you would say, like, this is why it's important when you're gamifying something that you claim your strongest take as early as possible.