The Three Players Who Will Define Week 5

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Sheil Kapadia here, joined by my friend Nate Tice from Yahoo Sports. We're going to talk about the main characters in week five in the NFL. And then guess what? I'm calling on him to help me with my Ringer 107 picks because your boy's been struggling. Nate and I have a history of making some picks. So I need his little juju from Nate here for that segment. So that's how we will close the show. Now, Nate, you're on West Coast. You have young kids. I was wondering this Sunday morning, Browns Vikings from London. Will you take me inside the Tice household? What does it look like?

0:36Will you have already been up for like two hours? Will you watch the game? By that kickoff point. Yeah. Yeah. If you can't even tell right now, it's like every time, like even when I do now on screen work so much, like all I think about is like, my eyes are always red. Eye drops all the time because it's like, and I asked my wife, this is like, is it hours? She goes, you're waking up at 5 a.m. every day. That's going to kind of do it to you. And I'm like, yeah, yeah, that's a good point. No, yeah, I'll be up for about an hour. Jack likes the 530 to 6 window, but I'll be down there on the couch.

1:06It'll be on the iPad, though, because that's when my son Jack, he likes to get his little morning TV watching it. Yeah, of course. He's actually getting away from that now. He likes to just kick the soccer ball around or start coloring and stuff, which has been a lot of fun, actually. But yeah, Sunday's up, and that's soccer day as well. Soccer from 9 to 940. and then it's a sprint back for me to get back into my office at about 9.55 and get situated and go into my lair for the day before our Sunday night show. There you go. I love that. Nate is the only one on West Coast waiting for the London game to begin.

1:41I love that morning slot. Yeah, yeah. You're like, come on. How come it hasn't started yet? All right. We're going to take a break. We come back. We talk week five main characters. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel. And if you're betting on the NFL, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live, and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly. Download the FanDuel app or go to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started.

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3:57All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL Show. So now I was looking at the slate. It's a good slate. I was trying to figure out like, who are maybe some people who haven't, we haven't dissected to death. Maybe we have, but just kind of a little check-in four weeks into the season as we go into week five. And the first main character is your boy, Drake May, who Nate Tice loves coming out of college and even last year say, no, this guy's got it. I've been a little slower, especially as him as on a prospect. But last year I'm like, okay, no, I kind of see what people like about Drake May. And I don't know how much people have noticed how good this Patriots offense has been this season.

4:34They go to Buffalo Sunday night, eight and a half point underdogs, but they are so far this season, eighth in EPA per drive, fourth in success rate. Drake May is first in success rate. I mean, that means for those who don't know, the most likely play to produce a positive result in the NFL through four weeks has been a Drake May drop back, which is, I did not expect that coming into the season. So I feel like this is a bit of a measuring stick game for them. You know, they've played these sleepy one o 'clock Sunday. Some people are paying attention. Other people aren't paying attention, but now it's like, how seriously are we supposed to take this Patriots team and this quarterback this season?

5:10So what has been your assessment of Drake May and what we've seen so far this year and specific in this spot going up against the Bills. Yeah, it's a decent matchup for him again. He's played a cupcake slate so far. That is the first caveat you have to bring out there, and that does matter. But it's not like it's going crazy this week. He's not exactly playing the 85 Bears. So really, the success rate stuff is a stat I like to use, especially early in the season until we get more data points. And then I can start looking more at EPA as the season goes along and we get more data points. But it's the record since 2013 for success rate in the season is Drew Brees in 2018 at 54.8%.

5:52And Drake May is just under that right now. And why that is significant to me is why I like May as a prospect is the NFL. You have to generate explosive plays like that is just some way, shape or form. You have to generate it. Is it launching the ball down the field? Is it creating throws over the middle where they can catch and run? Is it running the ball really well? you know just give it to Derrick Henry like every team has a different method of doing it so that's why I thought May had the kind of the goods to be a legit starting not just legit legit starting but a MVP quality quarterback a guy that can sit in that kind of top six top eight range for the rest of his career is because he wants to hunt for explosive plays and he was accurate doing so it was more I didn't have this issue but people thought that he had issues with his footwork which I thought were wildly overblown and I also just thought that his I thought his ball placement was always pretty exceptional on more difficult throws.

6:44So now he gets into this offense where he has to operate like 2018 Drew Brees, nickel dime, nickel dime, stick route, stick route, out route, out route, slant route, slant route, you know, just really quick. And he's doing it. And that's, I thought he had some of that in him, but I didn't maybe even think to this extent, again, cupcake schedule. But I just think that's a really cool kind of blending of play style that he has where he's super accurate, is willing to go down the field, like the throw to Stefan Diggs on third down was really cool where he tied down the linebacker with his eyes and hits him over the route.

7:16And I was like, that's why I like, he wants to go for the home run, but he's doing it in an intelligent way. The process is really good right now. Still taking a few too many sacks, which I would say is this one blemish right now. He still has a little bit of a, I'm going to try something here, but man, it's been really clean so far and he's making a lot of the right decisions and the results have been really good. So yeah, it's very real so far. Yeah, that balance, like I was watching that Patriots-Panthers game last week and I didn't watch it live. So I saw the score and then I rewatched it and I'm like, it almost feels like Josh McDaniels is like, this is my show.

7:49Like just, you know, just be the point guard. And, and that's not what I was expecting from like, I thought Drake may, if the Patriots took a step up, it was just going to be like, this guy's just kind of putting the offense on his back. Cause when we looked at the old line and the pass catching group, and I've been skeptical of Josh McDaniels on this show. And then you watch that game and it's like jet sweep, screen, misdirection run, play action, kind of a lot of Josh McDaniels nonsense in a complimentary way that's working really well, where they've kind of decreased maybe the volatility of the Drake May experience.

8:18Like he's throwing downfield at the third lowest rate in the NFL. He is the same rate as Bryce Young, but to your point, they're still creating those explosives and he's been really accurate. So it's just kind of a different version of him than I was expecting. Now, I do think there's going to be a little bit of that balance where, like you said, when they face maybe better teams, I think there's going to be points where he's going to be like, I want to let my talents show. Like I am exceptional and McDaniels is going to be like, you know, this is my show. So I think that's kind of a tension to keep an eye on the rest of the way.

8:50Yeah, no, the movement stuff with him is always he's a really good throw around the move. And you even got to see the rushing touchdown where he just runs it in. like that's just such a nice weapon for a team that's going to be like you know run look heavy you know it's kind of funny they were in all these tight formations with big personnel groupings but then they're throwing which i always like i think that's a good good method to go about it but you need a guy that can operate it's really hard to operate in quick game time and time again it's something i am not a big fan of usually because i think it's just really hard it's what defenses are trying to get you to do we don't bet your quarterback can do this every single down Right now, May is answering that question.

9:30May is going like, well, I can. Even if our run game has been wildly inconsistent, I think this is the week it gets right. I think this might be a Stevenson pop game, not Henderson. It might be Henderson as well. But I think the run game for the Patriots matches up really well against the Bills. But I do think that it's like, man, this has been the most consistent part of this offense. It's just quick game with Drake May throwing to tight ends. And it's just like that's something most quarterbacks get to in year five, year six, what we see with Mahomes now, what we've seen with Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott has the style as well.

10:02But Drew Brees, late career Drew Brees, but usually takes some time, not year two, not a month into year two. So it's ahead of schedule. But again, like you said, we got to see it against better competition. It's just, it might just be a little bit. Completing 74 % of his passes, Drake, man, that's, I mean, leads the NFL again. That's the, you're like, is that, I don't think that's going to be the type of quarterback he is, but he's showing he can operate in different ways and we'll see what shape that Patriots offense takes against a Buffalo defense like you said that can be had, I think, on Sunday night.

10:34You know what? I feel like I'm a good host for you, Dave, because I just picked main characters that like these are all players that you like. You just kind of get to defend your boys here. I thought this was a joke. I know. Originally, you had Dylan Gabriel, which is definitely not one of my boys. So it's like, yeah, okay. We already covered it. No, but the next main character here is Sam Darnold. Another guy, Nate Tyson's like, this guy's good. I like this guy. Don't give up on him. And I've been like, settle down. There may have been some texts sent Nate's way before the season. They'll settle down.

11:04Let's see it. Clint Kubiak's not Bill Walsh. But here we are four weeks in and the Seahawks are three and one. They host the Bucks in the late window. Fun matchup. They're three point favorites here. And I've been really impressed with Darnold. I was last year was so very slow. I'm like, just wait. just wait just wait and so I'm trying to go into this season with fresh eyes and I'm like he is playing really I think you could really make the case he's playing better than he did last year in Minnesota the numbers would kind of back that up again he's completing 70 % of his passes they're creating explosive plays at the highest rate in the NFL he's not putting the ball in harm's way he's taking sacks at a career low rate it's only four games Nate but what are you like seeing from this version of Sam Darnold?

11:49It's been really impressive so far. Yeah, it's not even just like the throwing stats. Like I think the most telltale signs and there's another quarterback that we're not talking about today, but Caleb Williams is going to be the same discussion here. The fact that Darnold is scrambling at the lowest rate of his career and taking sacks at the lowest rate of his career, that is the most significant thing to me because I'm not saying the Seahawks offensive line is much improved. Graze Abel was my rookie, my through four weeks rookie of the year, you know, because I had to do a football 301 offensive lineman because I can't help myself.

12:20But now you used to you, you started to interrupt, but you coined the 30s back in the day, you know, where you were like, why are we doing this four weeks at a time when the season's 18 weeks? I remember this. I'm like, he's right. Yeah, we should do it after six. We should do it after 12. But now the the content pressure has gone to you and now you're doing four weeks. I appreciate that. No, it did. Yes. Everybody wants to do quarter poll, which doesn't make sense with 18 weeks. And so I was like, just split into six, six, six, six. This is great. You know, the awards of the beast. No, but I, I, no, but that was, thank you for it.

12:55Cause I actually thought about bringing that back this year. I'm a fan. Yeah. The thirties. Yeah. Every six weeks. Oh, that's so funny. I know you said there. Oh, that's great. No, sorry. You're talking about Darnold. Yeah. Let's talk about Darnold. Is okay. The offensive line is so far, like it's better, but this offensive system, it's going to be, they're going to run the ball. Like that is what a Kubiak Shanahan offense is going to do. The offensive run game has been kind of okay, you know, average-ish, success rate-wise, eye test-wise. They're close. The right guard is awful, but they're close.

13:28Like they're going to get there. They've also played better run defenses. Like the Cardinals' run defense is actually pretty good. And I think that's kind of been an undersold thing with them right now. And so, but I do think why I'm saying that is their offensive system is going to be, we want to have an efficient run game and then what's the classic all right we're going to attack down the field bootlegs play action um designer plays that are going to get guys open down the field and first and explosive pass rate sam darnold so far this year first in net yards per attempt second most yards of 10 or more air yards i talked about like why i'm not a huge fan of living in quick game is because i think that if you have a solid run game that gets the job done anyways That is your version of attacking from zero to five yards.

14:10So that Kubiak-Shanian offense, that's what they're entirely built behind. We're going to run the ball for four to six yards, and then we're going to throw the ball for 20-plus yards. That is how we get our explosives in the run game. We might pop one on a zone run, but we're just trying to throw the jab with the run game, and then the haymakers come through the pass game. And the fact that Darnold's not taking sacks, he's getting rid of the ball. That's why I wanted to bring up that scramble rate. He only has two scrambles this year. He's typically triple that rate. is about 2 % rate. Usually it's about 6%.

14:38I know that doesn't seem crazy, but that's about two to three scrambles a game. But to me, that's a sign of the process so far, that he is throwing the ball and throwing the ball on time because he's not taking a ton of sacks either. His pressure sack rate's 15%, which is pretty dang good. Anything below 20 % you want to get to. And so his sack rate last year was 8%. Now it's 5.7%. So again, that's just showing that this offensive ecosystem, him kind of overused word sometimes but right now this is why this marriage and why i was pretty bullish on it is that darnell's not for everybody but for this offensive system that kind of you know keeps him like keeps him channeled to the things that he's good at man it's it's very real do i think he's gonna like stay up here no but i think you can get top half quarterback play which is what they bet on um with him because they're this team's built around the defense so the fact that they can, JSN's a star, Torrey Horton's had some nice moments, the tight ends are getting going, AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo, so they're figuring out the auxiliary pieces right now too, so that's why I'm staying bullish on the Seahawks.

15:43Yeah, I love that scramble stat because I mean, he looks like he knows what he's doing, he looks like a quarterback who knows what he's doing, knows where he's supposed to go with the ball, it's not, like you said, the best supporting cast, JSN has been awesome, but they are finding ways to make plays, I laughed when you said it's a team built on defense Because if any coach feels that, you know, is showing with their actions that yes, hard agree, it would be Mike McDonald's where just the decisions he's making on a weekly basis. I think, again, he's an awesome defensive coach, but man, he is old.

16:13You know, Pete Carroll took heat back in the day. But if Mike McDonald could win every game like six to three and not pass the ball, I think he'd be like, cool. Yeah, let's do that. That sounds great to me. This is the 2011 Seahawks again or 2012 Seahawks again. You know, that's Russell Wilson first year. without the sacks though. Like that's kind of what it feels like. A ton of zone runs, ton of play action. Explosives. Yeah, great defense. You're right. It's a classic philosophy. I mean, even at the Broncos or the Lions and, you know, Sean Peten type offenses, same philosophy. They just get to it in different ways.

16:46You know, it's just a different flavor. Theirs is more, you know, power runs and duo runs and gap scheme runs, which is that's the offensive system I grew up in from Paul Christ and my dad. So it's just kind of like That's the stuff I've always believed in. That's what the old Vikings teams are. What the Saints are doing, what the Cowboys operate is exactly how my dad's offenses used to be. Just different versions, different flavors again, different levels to it. But it's the classic formula and that's always kind of what I look for for a team to have success. All right, Darnold. That's a fun game.

17:16Seahawks-Bucks in the late window. Two very entertaining quarterbacks. I thought the Bucks-DBs played well last week against the Eagles. We'll see if the Seahawks can keep it going here. All right, let's take a break. We come back, get to one more main character, and then Nate helps me with my picks. The Ringer NFL Show is brought to you by FanDuel, and FanDuel is turning up the heat every Sunday with Power Hour. Every Sunday from 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern, FanDuel is giving you a profit boost to use on live bets during the most intense stretch of the NFL slate. This is when games flip, underdogs rally, parlays hit, legends are made.

17:55It's called Power Hour for a reason. And it happens every Sunday only on FanDuel. Head to fanduel.com slash NFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Opt-in required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. So this one's especially for you, Nate.

18:38And I'm going to do a little exercise here because my third main character, I'm pulling out my phone, not because I'm ignoring you. It's because I want to do a little, we're going to do a little exercise here that I just thought of here. Let me go to the timer. So Trevor Lawrence is the third main character. And this is a guy I think we probably disagree on. You've been pretty bullish on him. I disagree with pretty much everybody with him. So don't worry. You disagree with everybody. Yeah. So he, I mean, this is a big narrative set up for him because it's Monday night, chiefs at home. They are, Jaguars are underdogs here.

19:10It's like a good old fashioned kind of hipsters versus normies, I would describe. And I don't know if you consider yourself a hipster, but I think you're like the leader of the hipsters where they like, you know, they look to you, you know, I, that's, which is so ironic. Cause I, I know you shouldn't be their leader, but listen, film nerd, a stat nerd, a jock. Like I've been called every way because everyone's, yeah, I tried to, I tried to try to catch everything, every little piece of the puzzle. I tried to just make that little, I said that in high school, Nate, like you want it, you know, You want to be able to go sit with the stoners and the jocks and the nerds?

19:47That's where you want to be. So that's a good place to be. We did a, at Wisconsin, they said, what movie character or quarterback do you compare yourself to? So we had some, most guys was like Falco from The Replacements, you know, all that. And I went with Pink Floyd from Dazed and Confused. Because he's the guy that was buddies with everybody. Yeah. He was buddies with everybody. He was buddies with the stoners, the nerds, the jocks. He was, you know, he's a guy hanging out with everybody. And yeah, I think maybe like two people got what I was trying to go for and the rest were just kind of like, okay, party at the moon tower.

20:21So yeah, so you're, you're in a good spot. And I think the hipsters want this to be a showcase where Trevor Lawrence carves up his bags and defense. And it's like, no, he is a good quarterback. The Jags are a good team and that there's going to be a segment that's like, all right, we want Lawrence to just, you know, have another disaster on national TV. No one's watched him this year. It's Monday night. Now you, again, you are a Lawrence guy. So I'm picking up my phone. I'm giving you, let's say, 90 seconds. Make the case for why, no, everyone, you're wrong. Trevor Lawrence is a legit good quarterback and we should stop debating it.

20:58I'm starting the timer now. Okay, so I see this stat, this first read stat thrown out there, left and right. First off, okay, let me chart it with you. Can I chart those with you guys? Yeah, don't believe that. Yes, because there's so much noise anyways. There's short-cutting reads. There is times where the quarterback, technically that's number two or number three in a concept, and the quarterback gets there on one because he realizes what the coverage is. And so he says, screw one and two, I'm getting to three because that's the best throw. Sometimes there's RPOs in there. Sometimes there's play action concepts that are just one to two.

21:33And again, you're short-cutting it. So I see that thrown around with Trevor as a bad thing. And also I see the offensive line stats getting thrown around that. This is also one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It is an improved offensive line, but it is average at best. You know what helps pressure stats? The quarterback getting rid of the ball quickly, quickly throwing it. Right now, Trevor Lawrence is seven fastest time to throw on non-screen passes. 8.6 air yards on those, which is middle of the pack, about 15. The only guys above him in time to throw, fastest time to throw, are Mahomes, you know, the dude, and Daniel Jones, who's having one of the best years in the NFL.

22:09So it's because those guys know where they know where to go with the ball, which I think has been an underrated part with Trevor Lawrence. His one thing, his biggest negative, his biggest bugaboo, red zone turnovers. And sometimes he just has an assumption on the throw. Remember I said he shortcuts stuff. He assumes that that's what that coverage is going to be and gets caught. So what I'm saying is this guy's accurate. This guy makes great processing decisions. And this guy avoids a lot of sacks that people don't realize. So I don't think he's a top five quarterback. I'm never arguing that. But I think that kind of nine to 12 range, that's where I can, I think he can settle in at.

22:40And I think that's freaks people out when a quarterback is just good as opposed to elite or bad. That was excellent. I mean, I was, so I was going to give you the at 90, but you're, you're a nice guy. I mean, you're doing the podcast. I thought that would have been kind of rude if I was just like, I knew you were getting there and it was one 47. So that was pretty good. 107 seconds versus 90. I was like, I'm just going to let him go. Oh, I think it's at 147. I was like, oh, I was a full minute over. No, no. I'll take that. Okay, I'll take that. Yeah, yeah. Okay, we can adjust. That was pretty good.

23:13Adjusted time wasn't too bad. Yeah. You know, with Lawrence, now the other thing is the drops are a real thing. If you've watched the Jaguars or look at the numbers, over 13 % of his catchable passes this year have been dropped. That's tops in the NFL. You mentioned avoiding sacks. It was funny because that like had been a superpower. Then last year, you're like, what's going on here? Yeah. It reverted. but he's kind of back to what he's been. And that's a great sort of skill to have. You're avoiding negative plays. I think I still with his decision-making at times, and you alluded to it with the red zone turnovers, you look at turnover worthy plays, you look at stuff like sliding out of bounds, you know, sliding out of bounds last week, which is easier for me to say than I understand.

23:54You know, he's running to the left and you're like the boundaries there. So I don't want to kill him. But I feel like there are little things like that where my trust level with him is sort of like, all right I see you can watch a possession I here's what I'll say you watch a possession with Trevor Lawrence and you can be like he's one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and you can watch another possession and be like why does anyone like this guy and I think that's kind of what makes him a very difficult guy and a very polarizing guy but I think this is interesting against the Chiefs here on Monday night if they can play well and he can play well I think it's a big spot for Trevor Lawrence.