Three Numbers That Explain the MVP Race, the Micah Parsons Injury, and Seahawks-Rams Stake

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2:05Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are looking at three interesting numbers after week 15. Our guest is ESPN Seth Walder. I asked him to come to the table with three things he finds interesting, and he brought it with nuggets on. The MVP race, the impact of the Micah Parsons injury, and Thursday night's massive Rams-Seahawks matchup. He's going against the grain with some of these. We'll see if I agree or I disagree with him. So let's take a break. Come back with ESPN's Seth Walder. This episode of the Ringer NFL Show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm.

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3:23All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with ESPN's Seth Walder. Love having him on. He always makes me think, you know, tells me something I don't know. Seth, I feel bad. I gave you like homework this time, which I don't like to give the guests homework. But I'm like, I want to know what does Seth find interesting here? Give me some nuggets. So you did the work. Three nuggets, numbers, takes, whatever. however we want to frame them, what's the first one you have for us? Firstly, I like it. I appreciate it. And what are we doing on a Monday anyway, right? We're just looking. I'm digging through numbers, trying to find interesting things that I'm going to write about or talk about over the course of the week.

4:00So, you know, hey, this is good. I like to find these takes early. Okay, let's start with the MVP race, okay? Matthew Stafford is, I think, minus 300 to be the MVP at this point. Big move yesterday, of course, with the Rams winning and the Patriots losing. That really changed the odds on this race. And I am here to say I don't think Matthew Stafford is the MVP. Ooh. And he's had a great season. He's had a great season. If you were making me write down a vote, I think that it's an interesting race. I just think I wouldn't pick Stafford. I'm going to lay a whole bunch of numbers for you. He's fourth in QBR, fifth in EPA per play, and fifth in total EPA.

4:46I think you can be the MVP with those numbers depending on the other sort of context around there, but the rest of this context doesn't, to me, scream MVP because I think Matthew Stafford has had a lot of support. He has the Rams ranked seventh in pass block win rate. No team uses play action at a higher rate than the Rams. He is only 12th in completion percentage over expectation, so that's fine, but not anything to write home about. He's got exceptional receivers. Looking backwards, we'll see what happens with Devontae Adams going forward. The Rams have a great rushing game, right? Second in EPA per design carry and a great defense.

5:30Sixth in EPA per defense, so he's getting strong, not outrageous, but sixth best starting field position. All of these things to me are like numbers that say, hey, if you're only fourth with all of that support, should you be number one? Are you the number one most valuable guy? And I want to know if you're with me here, Sheel. I am actually with you. And I'm going to ask you in a second, we're going to keep the audience waiting on who we would vote for MVP. I think it's probably the same person, but maybe you'll surprise me. But yeah, we've all done the work on MVP and it's a predictable award.

6:04You got to be a quarterback. you've got to be the one or the two seed in your conference and you have to have the numbers and you could you know you might say Seth was giving us you know some nerdy numbers there she'll our people really actually if you look back in history like you have to you have to win the nerdy numbers thing you know the counting numbers too but also the EPA stuff I just went and I looked back before the season I don't know if I went back 10 years 20 years or whatever but it was basically like yeah you got to be around top five uh in EPA you don't have to be first you know you can be third or fourth, like you said, with Stafford.

6:35So I think that, you know, when you break it down like that, they've got a good chance to be the one seed, although it's not a lock, which I think we're going to talk more about later in the show. He's got the numbers, like you said, not overwhelming, but he fits the profile of an MVP candidate. So I think it really comes down to the supporting cast. And this is where it gets interesting, because to your point, Adams, Puka Nakua, Sean McVay, O-line, best run game in the NFL. even if we take out the defense and just say, how's the offense performing? Like that offensive infrastructure is there for him in a way that I don't think it's there for the other guys he's competing with.

7:12So to your point, he's had a great season. No one's denying he hasn't had a great season. He's worthy of the conversation. I actually would vote for somebody else right now if we were deciding right now. So who would that person be, Seth, for you? And what is your case? It's really close. I would vote for Drake May right now. Is that your guy? Okay, yeah. Yeah. So for me, it's like May is, so he's third in QBR. He would be basically tied for first if we take out the opponent adjustments. We shouldn't, though. I'm just saying, like, that is big. The easy schedule is baked in there when it comes to QBR in that way.

7:47But all the sort of support that we just talked about with Stafford, a lot of it is lacking with May. Yeah, I mean, I just look at the, like you said, the infrastructure around him. And to me, it's no contest. I mean, Matt Collins had all due respect to Matt Collins had eight targets on Sunday. And like Puka Nakua is one of the best wide receivers I've seen in the last few years, like historically good player right now. And then you mentioned it digs Hunter Henry trade. You just go to the box score on the Patriots on Sunday. Those are the names you're reading. You mentioned the offensive line.

8:19Even I would go coordinator. And I think Josh McDaniels has done a good job this season. But if we go track record, like it's no contest between McVay and Josh McDaniels, who's consistently produced good offenses. So yeah, I look at that. And then it's like, if May's numbers are not, if May's numbers are better than Stafford's and if he's going to be the one or the two seed, I'm trying to avoid the recency bias. You mentioned it. The odds shifted this weekend because one guy's team won and the other guy's team lost in a game where his defense gave up touchdowns on five straight possessions. Now I'm not telling you May played his best game of the season on Sunday against the Bills.

8:54He certainly did not, but this is an entire body of work here. And so I actually still feel pretty good, Seth, that there's a chance that by the end of the season, this is going to be more of the consensus. When you look at kind of what each guy has coming up here, I mean, Stafford's going up against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL on Thursday. I think May is in a big spot against the Ravens on Sunday night. A lot of people are going to be watching that game. I think he's going to get right back in it. I don't think there should be much of a split. I mean, to me, if you want to tell me it's a coin toss or whatever right now, that's kind of more where I'm at.

9:28I agree. I mean, and I don't think that it should be this way, but we know that when it comes to who will be the MVP, that the team performance matters. But the Patriots are still over 50 % to be a one or a two seed. And the Rams are at 63 % by our numbers to be a one or a two seed. So it's really not that different between them. And yet the odds are split so dramatically. Josh Allen have an outside chance if they get the one team, because he'll have all the numbers, and he's got a big game coming up against the Eagles in a couple weeks. And I just thought, like, you know, no one's going to feel guilty about voting for Josh Allen.

10:05You're like, all right, if I look back at this in 10 years, I'm going to be like, that probably was the right decision. I think there's a case, but he did not play his best ball at the beginning of this year. And it's like one of those things where I think, Like, if we're judging, I just hope it doesn't go completely lost. Like, we don't just look at that. If they go on a stretch run, all 17 games matter. And so, like, he is a little bit worse than all these other guys in efficiency. Catches up. And so then it's just sort of a moot point. But it is a factor. Yeah. They would have to, I mean, they have, what, 29%, 30 % chance to win the division.

10:41So the odds are still stacked against them. And he would have to have some big-time moments. and the stats would have to look a certain way. So I think we're on the same page. I think we're both against consensus, against the grain. I mean, the betting markets would tell you that, but we are on the same page there with the MVP. And again, Stafford's been awesome. And maybe Stafford will play lights out down the stretch. If he lights up the Seahawks on Thursday night, that's a big deal too. So yes, there's more football to be played, but I'm with you. I don't think there's a major gap there as the betting markets might indicate.

11:11All right, what is the next nugget that you have for us, Seth? Okay, so obviously Micah Parsons news, huge this week. And so one of the things, of course, I'm going to look at is what the effect is going to be for Parsons. Losing Parsons on the Packers. This is a team with title aspirations. And I really wasn't going into this exercise thinking this would be one of the topics we would hit. But then I saw the numbers and it really kind of blew me away. This is the big one right off the bat. Pass rush win rate. This is our measure of how often does a team have one or more pass rushers beat their blocker within two and a half seconds on a play?

11:51On plays when the Packers have had Michael Parsons on the field this season, they have a 43.9 % pass rush win rate. That would rank third if that had been over the course of the whole year. On plays without Parsons, that number drops to 23.4%. That would be worst in the NFL. Whoa. Which is crazy to me. That is a wild drop. Now, look, on-off splits in football, they're always dangerous. It's always a little crazy. But we're not talking about like no plays here. I mean, there's 160-something plays without Micah Parsons. And that is a really alarming number. Zoom out to the whole picture, okay? EPA per drop back with and without Parsons.

12:370.06 EPA per dropback with Parsons on the field. It's kind of average. And then 0.15 without Parsons. That drops them down to 26. And then here's one that I thought was really interesting. I wasn't necessarily expecting to be as extreme. Pass rate over expectation against the team. So this is a, right? So considering game situation and all of that. Yeah. So pass rate over expectation from the defensive perspective With Parsons on the field, defenses were negative 10%. So they were passing at a rate 10 percentage points lower than expected when Parsons was on the field, understandably. That number jumps to plus 2 % without him.

13:19So that's a huge gap in the way that offenses were responding, and that just means that they're more likely to just keep passing on Green Bay going forward, which is unideal. Yeah, so let's put all that stuff into context because the on-off splits, like you said, in football, they can be noisy. But as you were talking, I remembered, Seth, when the trade was made. And what did we all look at? We looked at the Cowboys with and without Parsons over the years. And they kind of went from one of the best defenses, if not the best defense in football, to the worst defense in football when he was off the field.

13:52So we have that context. And now you're telling me with these numbers, they go from a top five pass rushing unit to the worst pass rushing unit without Micah Parsons. That's one. They go from like an average pass defense to maybe a bottom six or seven pass defense when they don't have Micah Parsons there. And then I love that last one because you hear broadcasters talk about this all the time. I think it was just this last weekend. I don't know if it was Brady or Romo or who it was, but it was like, I don't know if it was Chris Jones or somebody was getting a break and they're like, pass the ball right now.

14:27Like their best pass rusher is not on the, whether you're going hurry up or that guy needed a breather. Like coaches, look at this quarterbacks. Look at this way. When that one guy who is so freaking hard to block, who we spent all week coming up with a game plan for us, what's our plan when he's on the sideline, getting a breather. Hey, now's a good time to call our shot play downfield. So that is something that absolutely affects stuff like game script and how you're going to game plan against the Parker's against the Packers. So this isn't good news Packers fans. And, you know, I was even looking at this job.

14:58It's just like, how good has this Packers defense been? because there's been weeks where I look at them and go, they look like a really good defense. And there's other weeks where I look at them and I go, you know, I don't know. And on this season, they're 18th in EPA per drive. And that's with Micah Parsons having played every single game. And then you add in Bo Nix's game against them this last weekend where he had like his best game of the season. And I wish we were coming on here and giving Packers fans some comfort about, hey, maybe they can still do it. but I don't think that's where either of us are with this team after this Parsons injury.

15:33No, I feel like I'm usually, when we're talking about a single player and it's a non-quarterback injury, I'm usually probably more inclined to say this can be overcome. And I think this is one of those few players where it really might not be. Yeah, this is like, you know, I don't know if you have any emotional eating advice for Packers fans. This is one of the, you know, when you're a sport and your team like loses or you have that devastating Sunday and you're going to the fridge and you're like, all right, there's some, you know, cold pasta in there, whatever. It's, you know, 1130 or 1 a.m.

16:07or whatever. I'm just breaking it. It's kind of one of those things for the Packers. Now, I would love nothing more than, you know, a month from now, two months from now, us going, whoa, Jordan Love put him on his back or, you know, Matt LaFleur stamped himself as the, one of the best coaches in the NFL. And those things are possible. I think the Christian Watson news I saw on ESPN.com today, you guys reporting that it's not long-term. So that's good news where the offense has that high ceiling. It is relatively wide open. It's just going to be really tough, I think. Maybe Jeff Halfley will show something, but I just think it's going to be really tough for them to string together three or four games in a row where we're talking about them in Levi's Stadium in the Super Bowl.

16:53You know what's like a weird angle out of this? and it ties into the first thing we thought about. I don't think we should rule Jordan Love out of the MVP conversation yet. And narratively, they could be the two seed quite easily. And narratively, if Parsons goes down, but then Love puts the team on their back and they win out from this point, I think that's definitely not out of the cards. Yeah, he would have to catch fire. Now watching the end of the sort of how that team looked, you know, at the end of that game. But that was without Watson. Maybe, yeah, maybe Watson comes back. And again, it's not just Parsons.

17:32We talked about this on yesterday's show. It's Tucker Craft and Elton Jenkins and maybe Zach Tom. Like they're just a banged up team now at the worst possible moment. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We get one more from Seth. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there. I just have to click, click. They know I'm not paying for shipping.

18:07I'm going to that Prime link, can order it. It shows up at the door. It's in a box, so it doesn't give anything away. I sneak it upstairs and there you go. They will see it on Christmas morning. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. Need some holiday magic? It's on Prime. Head to amazon.com slash prime to shop now. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. Spring is here, so celebrate it with fresh, juicy, seasonal produce and some very tasty limited time flavors. New Whole Foods Market Peach Apricot Rose Italian Soda.

18:45Perfect for a picnic or brunch, as is their trending mango yuzu chantilly cake. but if you're on the go, new 365 strawberry pretzels make a great sweet snack. That sounds delicious. Get savings with yellow sales signs store-wide and everyday low prices on 365 brand items. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring. Save at Whole Foods Market. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. All right, Seth, what's the last one you got for us? All right, let's spin it forward to week 16. We got Ram Seahawks, and I think we say all the time like, oh, this is the big game, right? This is the one. This week we've got the best game of the year.

19:29This really is the best game of the year, I think. We've got, there is, here's the number that I put to it. And 11 percentage points of Super Bowl leverage, not just make Super Bowl, win the Super Bowl leverage in this regular season game. So the Rams, I'm talking about probability to win the Super Bowl by our numbers. Rams, 17.1 % chance to win the Super Bowl if they lose, 23.3. If they win, Seahawks go from 6.4 with a loss to 11.2 with a win. A lot of this obviously has to do with the fact that the one seed is largely at play here. And so you've got this buy and the home games, the buy, all of this has huge ramifications for the playoffs.

20:1311 percentage points is kind of underselling it, actually, because the 49ers also have real Super Bowl leverage in this game. They move 1.5 percentage points. Their chance to win the Super Bowl moves up or down 1.5 percentage points based on this game. They need the Seahawks to win because that keeps San Francisco in not just the division but the one-seed conversation. And so there's so much that is going into this game. And one thing I just appreciate about this, it's going to be a great game and it's really cool to watch, but what I love is just, I think it's a testament, honestly, to the NFL and the way that they've structured the season, the balance that Lee has between the regular season and the playoffs.

20:57The playoffs are amazing, and yet we can have a regular season game between two teams that are going to be in the playoffs, and it's still going to move the needle that much. Not every sport does that, where you make the sort of like must-view event in a regular season context. And like as someone that loves games and is interested in that sort of thing, I just, that works. And I think like college football, you know, if you're thinking about expanding and getting rid of buys and stuff, like those are the kind of questions you got to think about because you really have to find that right balance.

21:34And I think this is a great one. Yeah, it's like make, you know, The seed, that one seed is so valuable, you know, and we talk about how valuable it is, but I think we probably still undersell it. So this is really a situation like we had in week 18 last year between the Lions and the Vikings, where it was, all right, one of these teams is going to finish in a certain spot and the other team's going to finish in the other. And there's just such a huge difference because the winner of this game is going to be in the driver's seat for that one seat. So that means not only do you get the buy in the first round, but also you're getting home field throughout.

22:11And it's not like the loser is like, OK, I get the two, you know, I'll settle for the two seed. No, you are either going to be one or you're probably going to be five. And if you're five, that means you're going on the road, potentially all three rounds of the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl. So it is just so huge here. Seahawks, 11 and three Rams, 11 and three. Like you said, you know, you look at all the numbers and I was just looking at the athletics simulator and, you know, the Rams, if they win this game, then they have what? Oh, no, sorry. This is the Seahawks. They would have a 51 % chance to get the one seed.

22:47I'm sure you have similar numbers. And if they lose, it goes down to 1%. So think about that. What? 51 % to 1 % and then you have the numbers there for the Rams as well. Yeah, that's exactly right. So the difference being that if the Seahawks win, the 49ers stay in the picture, whereas if the Rams win, then the Rams move to over 90 % to take the division. The other thing is that for both these teams, especially in light of what we just talked about, if you're the Seahawks or the Rams, I think, who are you most worried about in the playoffs in the NFC? I would save each other. And so in this case, it's like you're getting the one seed and you're knocking your rival down into being a road wildcard team for the playoffs.

23:35So I think that works. This is by far the biggest Super Bowl leverage game remaining this year. But number two is sort of interesting to me. I'm just going to throw this out there. Do you want to guess? It's okay. You don't have to have like all three of the schedule remaining. All right. So Super Bowl leverage game. I feel like I would probably want to go. Do I go to the AFC? Is it AFC, NFC, or is it interconference? It's AFC. AFC. So I'm looking at the top there. I mean, the Patriots I know have the Ravens, the Broncos. Is it like Broncos Chargers? Is there still a Broncos Chargers game? I can't forget.

24:15I think I'm right. I'm wrong. All right. Terrible guesses. I wouldn't have gotten this. It's Steelers-Ravens week 18, which sort of blew my mind because you wouldn't think that, right? But the reason is because that game is getting already very close to being locked in as a win-and-you're-in, lose-and-you're-out game. So, like I was playing with it, it's not guaranteed, but the odds are very likely that that's what's going to happen. So I think we are setting up for a potential, I don't know, that could be the Sunday night game maybe. But just because you have this situation where it's just going to be you're in the playoffs or you're not in the playoffs.

24:50And, and even if either of those teams look like Superbowl contenders at this very moment. Yeah. Yeah. I, you know, I, I've heard some conversation about like, oh, you know, a lot of the teams are locked in and it's a, and I'm like, yeah, but the NFC, there's like a mini tournament going on here with, you know, the bears, uh, having to play the 49ers and the lions and you have Seahawks Ram. So I'm not one to, you know, stump for the league or stump for Roger or say, you know, the NFL is crushing it. I think it's a pretty exciting stretch run here. I mean, the NFC North thing is just wild, where the Bears for a while, it was like, all right, they're probably not going to be there at the end.