Three Numbers That Matter Going Into Week 18!

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1:13Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are getting a head start on a massive Week 18 in the NFL. We are looking at three numbers that matter for the three biggest matchups in Week 18. Panthers-Bucks for the NFC South, Seahawks 49ers for the one seed, and Raven Steelers for the AFC North and a playoff spot. The three biggest matchups in the final week of the regular season. My guest today is the Ringers, Austin Gale. He'll unearth some nuggets and we'll talk about them. Let's take a break. Come back with Austin Gale. This episode of the Ringer NFL Show is presented by State Farm.

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2:30Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with my friend Austin Gale, who's bringing to the table three numbers that matter as we go into a big week 18 that will shape some offseason narratives, get us ready for the playoffs, Austin. All right, what are we starting with? What do you got? I want to start with the Pittsburgh Steelers because I don't know if everyone is really taking in what they saw this week with DK Metcalf suspended, Calvin Austin also battling a hamstring injury. The receivers that they put out in this game were horrific. And the number I wanted to bring to you was the leading receiver, leading wide receiver on the Steelers this year is DK Metcalf with 850 yards.

3:13He's not going to play in week 18. He didn't play in week 17. He's suspended for punching that fan. The second leading receiver on this team, not tight end, not running back, is Calvin Austin, who didn't play in this last week's game because of the hamstring injury and you don't know if he's going to play in this upcoming game. The third leading receiver is a guy named Roman Wilson, a former third-round pick out of Michigan that Aaron Rodgers hates. Even with all the injuries and DK Metcalf suspended, he only ran two routes in Week 17. The receivers that Aaron Rodgers was throwing to last week and were probably throwing to in this win-or-go-home game in Week 18 on Sunday Night Football against the Ravens is Adam Thielen at 35 years old, Marquez Valdez-Scantling at 31 years old, and then scotty miller who scotty miller ran 30 routes in that week 17 loss to the cleveland browns it's the first time he ran 30 routes in a game since november 2022 the the the passing weapons and then you factor in darnell washington broke his arm in that game as well like the passing weapons available to aaron rogers who he is hand-picked by the way you know he's played with marquez valescanling he wanted adam the the weapons that they have i just think are like borderline not NFL caliber players, like NFL caliber weapons.

4:23And I think it's going to be ultimately what ends up kind of ending this Steelers season in a very awkward way where Tomlin still has the record. They go nine and eight, but they miss the playoffs. And I think it's just going to ultimately be a very sour taste in fans' mouths, Steelers fans' mouths, because I don't think anyone is satisfied with what Tomlin has done in the post-Roethlisberger era. And then with Aaron Rodgers, yeah, there have been moments when he's woken up feeling good after 40 years old. But this is a roster and an offense that he kind of handpicked and constructed. And you're kind of reaping what he's sowed down the stretch here.

4:54And ultimately, I think it was going to be a very disappointing end to the Steelers season.

4:57Austin Gayle:Do you know where Aaron Rodgers ranks in dropback success rate now as we go into week 18? Give me a guess. 26th. And I know we've explained this before, but the success rate just means, was it a positive play or a negative play? So if it's a 10-yard completion on third and nine, that's treated the same as a 50-yard completion. It's a good thing to look at to kind of take out some of the noise. So Austin says 26th. He ranks 30th, Austin. He is ahead of two players who are both rookies, Cam Ward and Jackson Dart. So again, to explain this, the only pass plays that are less likely to produce a positive result this year than an Aaron Rodgers drop back are a Jackson Dart drop back and a Cam Ward drop back.

5:39Austin Gayle:because I looked at that because it's been a very hard season to digest for Aaron Rodgers because I'm with you. When DK Metcalf was healthy here the last month, there were some games in there where I'm like, man, I think I was wrong. He looks pretty good. This passing game looks pretty good. Early in the season, it looked terrible. You and I talked about they're throwing three-yard passes every snap, but when you add it all up, it has not been a good... The passing game simply has not worked, and I think you're absolutely right. I mean, we could be going back and looking at this season going, that DK Metcalf altercation with the fan cost the Steelers a playoff spot.

6:15Austin Gayle:Cause I'm, I don't even like this Ravens defense, but it's like, I just look at it and we, that was a lot of MVS, all those receivers you mentioned. I'm like, man, where was I when I first, when that person was first in the league, like, did I have kids? You know, I remember the MVS is arc in green Bay where it's all you can't trust him, but man, he's so fast. And Adam Thielen, it's like, man, And him and Diggs in Minnesota, this is incredible. And who was the other guy you mentioned? Who was the third one? You said? Oh, Scotty Miller. Scotty Miller. He was like the hipster favorite with the Bucs.

6:44Austin Gayle:Like, yo, you guys don't know about Scotty Miller, but man, with Tom Brady, this guy's good. And these guys are all playing for them in the year 2025. I have a hard time seeing how they're going to move the football in this game. Not even just like Marquez Valdez-Scantling was Rodgers' go-to target down near the goal line to kind of try to win that game. Three in a row. Valdez Scantling at his best was a field stretcher, right? Someone who could maybe take the top off the defense. And it's like a 50-50 coin flip if he catches the ball. Going to him in fade situations where you're needing him to kind of make a contested catch does not make sense to me.

7:18And it's not what Arthur Smith is calling as the play caller. This is what Aaron Rodgers wants. He wants to call the plays at the line of scrimmage. He wants to be in control. And ultimately, without DK Metcalf, and you start to strip the weapons away, Isaac Sumalo, their guard has also been hurt. Like you start to strip this way and all you have left is Rogers and his buddies. It looks like this. And it's been, you know, I mentioned 26, but it's felt like 30th in terms of success rate for Aaron Rogers. Zero. You look at statistically success rate, EPA per drop back, pretty much any number. This is one of the worst, if not the worst statistical season for Aaron Rogers, even worse than when he was playing for the jets.

7:50And then when you look at for the Steelers offensively, it's comparable to what they had when they had duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph throwing stuff around. And then defensively, which isn't the point of this stat, but I think it has to be brought up. this is the worst defense of the Mike Tomlin era by a considerable margin in terms of you look at success rate, EPA per drive allowed, all these different metrics. Like, I really do think, even though he still has the record and they were able to pull out some games and Aaron Rodgers has like flashed in milliseconds throughout the season. I, again, I think Steelers fans going back to what they were, you know, not cheering on the song that they love and wanting to fire Tomlin.

8:24I really do think that like, this is a, an exclamation point on what has been a very disappointing stretch for the, for the, for the latest kind of the, what I call it the post Roethlisberger era for the, for the Steelers.

8:34Austin Gayle:And let's be clear. It would shock nobody if the Steelers, the Ravens aren't good. It wouldn't shock me. I mean, the Ravens aren't good enough, but I'm not saying this, the Ravens are definitely going to win. These are both just two mediocre teams. We don't know if Lamar Jackson's going to play. John Harbaugh was just like, we're day to day to be determined. We'll see later in the week if Lamar Jackson actually plays in this football game. So we'll talk more about that side of it later in the week. But But last thing I wanted to get to here, Austin, you sent me a link, which I didn't have a chance to check out.

9:03Austin Gayle:But it was an Adam Schefter report from Awful Announcing about these two head coaches. Because I had the idea to Billy yesterday. They should just say before the game, whoever loses has to resign this game. Now, I don't think they're going to do that. But what was Schefter saying about potentially the loser of this game? What might happen? I mean, I think he's just kind of throwing out that if they lose, there is a it is in the realm, quote unquote, realm of possibility that Tomlin steps away and takes a TV gig. I think it could easily be just kind of leverage talk and Tomlin still wants to coach or whatever.

9:34And it's hard to imagine, again, after another winning season, even if they do lose this game, that like the Steelers do ultimately move on Tomlin just because he's been there for so long. It's just like even hard to think about what the Steelers look like without Mike Tomlin coaching. but you have to be at this point, especially if they lose this game. And now you can, you can blame the DK Metcalf suspension. You can blame a lot of things. If they lose this game, they miss out on the playoffs. What is, what has to change for people to start to take the Pittsburgh Steelers seriously? This is the worst defense we've seen.

10:01TJ Watt is on the other side of 30. That contract they just signed him to looks worse and worse every single day. Offensively. Are they going to bring Aaron Rogers back? He's up for contract as well. Do you bring him back and try this again with his buddies again, a new offensive play caller? Do you fire? Like, I don't know what you can change if not Tomlin to try and reset the bill here, reset the market or reset the team and try and find just a new way of doing things. Because I think how they're approaching it currently is leading them to the same result over and over. They win games they shouldn't, they lose games they shouldn't.

10:29And at the end of the day, they're one or two wins above 500. And then going into the playoffs, if they do make the playoffs, everyone's counting them out. That's not what teams want to root for. Like someone on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show brought up that like, Mike Tomlin's Jeff Fisher with an extra win over these last few years. Like that's, that's, that's kind of how it's felt, right? Like Jeff Fisher was a former Los Angeles or no Los Angeles, St. Louis Rams coach who always are in Titans to always went eight and eight. Right. And now Tomlin over these last few years, it's like, he's kind of always going nine and eight, nine and seven or whatever it is.

10:58And no one feels all that confident in them as a contender or a competitive team. Even when it was a few years ago, I think it was like the last Roethlisberger year. They were like, went on that big winning streak. And a lot of people were excited about like, they were like 13 and no at one point, but you could tell like they were a fraudulent team. the bones of that team weren't there and they ultimately ended up petering out in the playoffs i just think that steelers fans expect more and they at the end of the day expect change and if that's not tomlin who is it what is it because something has to change yeah you know you mentioned

11:24Austin Gayle:that it's a great line jeff fisher line yet i still look at it and i'm like he overachieved with this group they're playing for them they're playing for the division overachieving with this group since roethlisberger retired like it's like you need a new group you need a new group yeah Yeah, that's, I mean, think about what we're talking about with the DK Metcalf thing. It's like they lose a guy for two games and the offense can't score a touchdown against the Cleveland Browns. I mean, that, you know, the Browns have a good defense, but yeah, that is kind of hard to stomach there. What's going on in Pittsburgh.

11:53Austin Gayle:So it's going to be, man, there are going to be narratives that come out of it. Whichever team loses this game between Rogers and Tomlin and Lamar and Harbaugh. And we're going to talk about that later in the week. But I don't really, I don't think either of these teams are very good, but the game is very fascinating because of what's going to come out of it, depending on the result there. All right, next one. Austin, what do you got? What's your second number for us? I wanted to ask you if you feel like the Seattle Seahawks are over-reliant on Jackson Smith and Jigba for the passing offense. And like, I think I, you know, I want to talk about the Seahawks coming into the week 18.

12:28Like it's one of the few games that matter. Seahawks and Niners battling for the one seed in the NFC. It's going to be a treat Saturday night. And I think it's easy to talk about the run game that I think has improved over the second half of the season. They're kind of playing the hot hand between Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker. Kenneth Walker going to be a free agent in the offseason. And then Darnold obviously still has that bozo in him, still can turn the ball over. He leads the league in turnovers. He has two more turnovers than Gino Smith. Gino Smith of the Las Vegas Raiders. He has two more turnovers than him.

12:56He can and always will be capable of losing games, especially in clutch situations. You kind of felt that in that Rams game that they were able to come back with, the Zachwards pass and all that crazy stuff. But to throw, I don't want to talk about the Darnold element enough. I almost think it's played out. And the run game has been middling at best at points this season. Where I feel like there have been real problems for him this year is when teams really key in on Jackson Smith and Jigman, knowing that he's the bulk majority of the offense. The number I wanted to bring into this, he has a 36 % team target share.

13:26It's the second highest for any player in a full season behind Brandon Marshall when he had 40 % of the team's target for the Bears in 2012. That's the second highest of any player this century. Then you look at percentage of yards. 39 % of the team's yards, highest of any player this season. 39 % of the team's first downs, highest of any player this season. And at various points in the year, you've seen teams specifically key in on Jackson Smith-Djigba in the opening script. I think Seattle fans have been frustrated with Kubiak and Darnold and the offense in the first halves of games when they've come in, trying to funnel the ball to JSN and defenses have taken that away.

13:58You saw that against the Arizona Cardinals in week four, zero catches in the first half. He was able to find it in the second half. Plus the Cardinals defense sucks. Zero catches against Minnesota, another game this season. He only had two targets in the first half as well. And he ended up finishing that game, I think with less than 40 yards. They blitzed a ton. It was a little bit of a blueprint game to kind of slow down the offense and slow down Jackson Smith and Jigma. And you go back to that Rams game a couple of weeks ago, He had zero catches in the first half of that game as well. And that's when the Rams were rolling.

14:23It wasn't until the Rams stopped, stopped throwing him extra attention, put him in more single coverage looks specifically the one when he scores that touchdown, that would have tied the game if they kicked the extra point, but it ends up being the game winner in overtime again, in single coverage beats the corner. Like Jackson Smith, the Jigba needs extra attention and defenses start to slow this. When he gets that extra attention, defense can slow this offense down. I think at the end of the day, I ultimately feel like in addition to the flaws in the run game, in addition to Sam Donald, being able to turn the ball over at will.

14:50I do think that the offense has not been able to find another player outside of Jackson Smith and Jigba that they can funnel the ball to and create explosives. And ultimately, the offense, I think, is going to either peter out because they can't run the ball, Darnold throws these turnovers, or it's going to be a team that really locks in on Jackson Smith and Jigba, and they have to go elsewhere.

15:07Austin Gayle:So if I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm saying, all right, it's easier said than done. You named, you know, like one game this season where somebody was successfully took out Jackson Smith and Jigba. So yeah, it is a great plan. I'm sure defense has come in and plan to take him away, but ultimately they have found a lot of ways to get him the football. But you know what? The underlying thing of what you're saying, I do agree with, which is that I think there's a fragility. Is that I use that right? Fragility? Yeah. To the Seahawks offense where, you know, you looked at that last drive against the Rams and it shaped the narrative.

15:39Austin Gayle:And I came on here and said, oh, you got to look at Darnold differently. But then now that I zoom out a little bit, I still don't know that I fully trust this Seahawks offense specifically in the playoffs. I mean, they've had three straight performances here that have been below average. And four of their last five games have been under the 50th percentile just in terms of EPA per drive here on the season. They're 16th in EPA per drive. Austin, I don't know that they get talked about that because early in the season, it was like, wow, incredible success story. This whole thing worked out for them offensively.

16:10Austin Gayle:And don't get me wrong. It has. they're competing for the number one seed here, but it's still on the back of their defense. And statistically, it's still more of a mediocre to slightly above average group than it is a really good group. They're not in a class of teams like the 49ers and the Rams offensively. They can produce explosives and they play unbelievable defense, which could lead them to the Super Bowl. But I do think we have to be honest about how this team is made up and how they can win. And I think your point about JSN is a big one because they don't have the secondary pass catcher, the tertiary pass catcher.

16:45Austin Gayle:I mean, Cooper Cobb, Rashid Shahid had the concussion last week. And so you don't even know if you're getting him for this game against the 49ers, but he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire here as a receiver, even though he's contributed on a special team. So when you zoom out and keeping the JSN numbers you just gave in mind, like what is your trust level for the Seahawks team going up against the 49ers defense that is not good at all? Like, do you think, hey, this isn't something that's going to bite them this week, but maybe in the playoffs? Or are you like, this could actually bite them this week?

17:13Austin Gayle:Because remember, they can go, they can finish anywhere from the one seed to I think the sixth seed, depending on how that game ends up. So this is just a massive swing. Where are you with your confidence in their offense overall? I think that I'll eat crow if the fragility of Darnold, the rushing attack, and the reliance on JSN doesn't show up in this Niners game. because the Niners defense has been gettable ever since that Fred Warner has been out. I think they're bottom three by most metrics since he left in week six. They also have been without Nick Bosa, which is a big part of their pass rush.

17:47That defense has really struggled. And Robert Sala has done a really good job, I think, developing a lot of young players in the secondary. And I think they're like punching above their weight in some degree. But ultimately, it's a very gettable defense. You saw that against Chicago last night. The thing is, if we go into this game, and it's a big game, right? We remember last year, week 18, you know uh sam darnold had a chance for the vikings

18:09Austin Gayle:he's in the same spot oh he's in the same spot about that he's literally in the same spot he's in the same spot week 18 if he wins he's the one seed if he's not he's going to be playing on the road for a lot of the playoffs um and we know how that panned out the following week uh with sam darnold so this is a big spot clutch spot for sam darnold that always scares me regardless of the talent level of the defense then you factor in that i do think and we had this on the ringer's head coach candidates ranking, like the candidate rankings at Robert Saul at number one, I do think Robert Saul is a good coach.

18:37And I think he knows if they're in terms of like trusting the offense. Sure. Like if there is an offense in this NFC playoff field that I feel like most confident in what I know I need to take away for them to be kind of shut down. I do feel like with the Seahawks, you feel that way, right? So you know how to, you know what Sam Darnold's limitations are and how to get him into Bozo mode. You know that this offense flows through Jackson Smith to Jigba. And you know that they've struggled to run the football and create explosives with Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet. So if Sala is able to kind of pull off and punch above his weight again and kind of slow this offense down, we know that the San Francisco 49ers offense is very good.

19:09Now, the Seattle defense is good, too, and it could be a matchup in that way. But if Darnold plays poorly or they shut JSN down in the first half and they start to throw extra bodies his way, and then we kind of look at the Seahawks going into the playoffs on the road and maybe Darnold doesn't win another playoff game again. I do think we're going to look back on this season and it'll be easy, very easy to say, oh, man, Darnold blew it in the biggest spots again, blah, blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, you need Darnold to stop turning the ball over, which I don't think we can do. He leads the league in turnovers.

19:35You need another pass catcher to develop into a weapon. So if JSN does get extra attention, you have other ways to move the football. And then you need this defense to go on a crazy run. If the Seattle Seahawks are going to obviously go to the Super Bowl. Now, if they win this game, they get the bye. They're playing at home. I think a lot of that changes things. But this is a huge game. And I think a huge test to how we're going to talk about the Seahawks in the offseason, because ultimately this will determine the narrative.