Three People Who Have the Most at Stake the Rest of the 2025 NFL Season

0:00Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we are looking at who has the most at stake over the next six weeks. It's really when narratives are shaped in the regular season. What happens between now and the playoffs? This can go a long way in determining what happens in the offseason and beyond. So we're going to talk about some of those guys with a lot at stake. Our guest is Austin Gayle from the Ringer. I've asked him to come up with three people. So we'll see who he chooses. We'll see if I agree. if I disagree, and then we'll talk about it. Let's take a break. We come back and we talk to Austin Gale.

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2:34Austin Gayle:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show with Austin Gale. Austin, your task today, who are the three people in the NFL with the most at stake the rest of the way, the next six weeks? Let's get started. Who do you got? Who's number one? Is it crazy for me to start with Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin? And when you first asked me this question, I think the only way to approach it is to look at their next six games, like look at their final six games and see what they have. The Steelers, who are six and five, who have completely fallen off after starting the season hot. And I think they're two and two over their last few games.

3:08It looks like the Baltimore Ravens, who are now six and five after starting the season one and five, are probably going to win the AFC North. the Steelers remaining games are Bills at Ravens Dolphins at Lions at Browns and then Ravens again they need three wins for Mike Tomlin to maintain his I've never had a losing season and you got the Bills coming off a tough loss with extended rest on Thursday Night Football against the Texans you have the Ravens twice who need both those games to win the division Dolphins let's just give them that win but then you have at Lions at Browns well Browns maybe you give them that win, but you need one more win.

3:45You need one more win. Are they beating the Bills? Are they splitting games with the Ravens? Or do they beat the Lions in Detroit? I don't know. I think this Steelers team is underperforming. And I think we kind of felt that. I think we talked earlier in the season about this offense feels gimmicky. This defense is easily the worst they've had in the Tomlin era. It's hard to find three wins remaining on the schedule, which would mean the first year Aaron Rodgers is a Pittsburgh Steeler ends up being the first year Mike Tomlin has a losing record in the NFL would be quite the way to end the season, especially after starting the season, obviously with a winning record and winning games early on.

4:16Austin Gayle:Which I have a streak, Austin, of predicting every year is going to be the year that Mike Tomlin loses that streak. And I did predict it again this year. So I'm not jinxing anything. Let's see if it happens. But when we talk about what's at stake, so is this just always streak of never having had a losing record that's at stake? Or do you think there's more to this? Because if what you, the scenario you painted actually plays out, and let's say they finish 8-9, maybe it even goes worse, and they're 7-10, and they have a losing record, and they don't make the playoffs, are we finally at the point where we say, you know what, it's time.

4:50Austin Gayle:It's just time for a natural break. What's your plan? You're going to run it back with 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers next season? Or are you just like, no, the streak is what's at stake, but let's be honest, Tomlin's not going anywhere. I think the streak is obviously at stake, and that's a big part of it. And I think talking to Steelers fans, even editor-in-chief here at the Ringer, Ben Glixman, it's hard to put my head in their headspace of like, they're really frustrated with Mike Tomlin because they haven't won a playoff game since what, 2018? 16, I think it is. 2016, yeah. I was looking it up earlier.

5:25Austin Gayle:The other teams in that group, by the way, Austin, who haven't won a playoff game since 2016, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals, Raiders, Dolphins, and Broncos. That's it. Now they've made the playoffs more, but that's not a good group to be with right now. So I do think Steelers fans are frustrated with Mike Tomlin. And then if this season ends up being the season where the streak ends, it also ends where Mason Rudolph has to get extended playing time, where he was the backup in Pittsburgh for a long time, then went to Tennessee, and then they brought him back. The Steelers bring him back, thinking he's this capable backup that can come in in a pinch, and they continue to lose games with him.

5:59They haven't had a top 10 offense by success rate since 2018, since the latter years of the Ben Roethlisberger era. Tomlin has not been able to figure out the quarterback position since Roethlisberger left. Now, what was supposed to be the strength for Tomlin all this time, the defense, is easily the worst defense of the Tomlin era. And when you look by most metrics, it's the worst defense this millennium by success rate, by EPA per drive allowed, by points per drive allowed. Like, the defense has bottomed out. They still don't have an answer at the quarterback position. They could have this losing record, this losing streak, and they're probably not going to have another playoff win.

6:30I think that the frustration with Mike Tomlin, he hits at least its highest boiling point that it's had in the entire time that he's been there. Will that lean? They let go of him this offseason? I don't know. The head coaching cycle this offseason looks pretty rough. I don't think there are going to be better options than Tomlin this offseason. But it will get to as close as I think Steelers fans have been to being like, you know what? It's time. It's time to move on for Mike Tomlin. We need a new era. We need to start fresh.

6:54Austin Gayle:Okay, but what you just said makes it interesting. Makes him an interesting candidate because you know everyone at the Ringer loves a good head coach trade, Austin. And we need to be the company that starts making these happen around the NFL. Because, yeah, you look at the candidates and you're like, wait, these guys are up for head coaching jobs? Oh, my gosh. I'm glad my team doesn't need a head coach this offseason. And so it feels to me like this isn't going to be a Steelers thing. They're not going to say, all right, we're done with him. He's underachieving. That's not how they operate. They know he's a very good head coach.

7:24Austin Gayle:They know he sets a floor. They know he's a good face of the franchise. All those things. However, if you're Mike Tomlin, and I was listening to our friends on the Press Box, and they had Chris Collinsworth on. I don't know if you heard that or not. And they asked him, Austin, who they said, who's a guy who you meet in production meetings who you're just like, this guy would crush it on TV? And his answer was Mike Tomlin. And I just do wonder, at some point, does Mike Tomlin say, this has been a great run. Either I need a mid-career break here. Let me go do some TV for a couple years, though, like Bill Cowher.

7:57Austin Gayle:Now, Bill Cowher never came back, but then I'll come back in a couple of years. I'm only 53 years old. I got time. I'll wait for the right job. Or do you have a team like, say, the New York Giants that's looking for a coach this offseason and looks at the candidate pool and says, that is not that enticing. And we've struck out on all these guys over the years since Tom Coughlin. We need a sure thing, just someone who brings some stability, some respectability to the franchise. let's at least call the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let's talk to Mike Tomlin's agent and let's see if there's something that can be worked out there where we send some draft capital that way.

8:35Austin Gayle:Or do any of those scenarios intrigue you with Mike Tomlin in 2026? Possibly. It's hard to imagine the Steelers moving on from Mike Tomlin unless it is. It does like start at Tomlin and Tomlin's like, I'm looking for a new place. He's like, I need a break. I'm kind of looking for a change of pace. And I think having a losing season would accelerate that. I also, it comes back to like, I just don't know what they're building in Pittsburgh. It's the second oldest team in the NFL by snap, snap adjusted age. And you look at, you know, some of the picks that they've made, you know, Broderick Jones hasn't worked out at left tackle.

9:04They don't, they aren't building something in the receiving core. I love Darnell Washington as much as the next guy, but it's still like, they don't have pieces that you're excited by offensively or defensively. And also, you know, we always joke about when a receiver leaves Pittsburgh, it all goes downhill from there. George Pickens looks like a superstar in Dallas. And you, you, you move on, you lose George Pickens for a third round pick. This offense is one of the worst in the league by most metrics. Aaron Rodgers has kind of propped it up in a very gimmicky way. A lot of yards after the catch, low average jump to target, etc.

9:31And now the defense isn't playing well. It's just hard to think you go into next year, right? Let's say Tomlin does stay. You can't look a Steelers fan in the face and say it's going to be different. I don't know what, unless they get a miracle at quarterback and make a big trade or a big splash play, which they've not done since Roethlisberger has left. I don't see how this Steelers team is any better next year. It's an old team. A lot of older guys under contract and still no long-term answer at quarterback. No long-term answers really at receiver. The offensive line is still not where it needs to be.

10:01I just feel like they're due for a changeup. I don't know if it's Tomlin necessarily, but it feels like you're going to finish the season as a Steelers fan being like, man, nothing changes. Nothing really does change.

10:13Austin Gayle:The Pickens thing is the first time I thought, has Tomlin lost his fastball? Because every time we've talked about this before, he gets rid of the guy And then the guys like an even bigger disaster somewhere else. Antonio Brown, of course, being the greatest example, but there's been other guys too. And the fact that Pickens went on and now looks like better than he ever did in Pittsburgh. I'm like, huh, that is kind of weird. I didn't expect it to go that way. So we'll see. All right. So Mike Tomlin streak on the line. It's almost, you know, not to be mean Steelers fans. It's kind of the only interesting thing with the Steelers the rest of the way, because even if by some miracle, they sneak into the playoffs.

10:46Austin Gayle:No one's taking them seriously. They're not going anywhere. They're plus 250 to make the playoffs. They're probably not even going to get in. And so that's kind of the only interesting thing about them the rest of the way. They're just kind of mired in mediocrity, which is what you're saying here. So we'll see what happens with the streak for Mike Tominard. It has to be said, though, just real quick, like the mediocrity of it all. It's better than being, you know, the Jets or the Giants or the Raiders or the Browns. And I think we have to recognize that. I do think, though, so many consecutive seasons where it feels like there's this hard ceiling on the team.

11:18And yes, a hard floor, but also a hard ceiling on the team with no like, oh, man, this young receiver or this young offensive line. Like, OK, we're building something. There's something that's stacking up here. I feel like they've had stopgap bandaid solutions at every key position since Roethlisberger has left. And that to me is why I don't I just don't know. Like you need to change something. Right. And like I think Tomlin has tried with coordinators and these different things, but it just hasn't worked out. maybe there doesn't end up being a change down the road.

11:43Austin Gayle:Yeah, they're not a train wreck franchise. They're not a bad franchise. They're just mediocre with no real chance to win big. So there you go. All right, who's number two on your list, Austin? I don't know if he's actually number two, but I've been meaning to have a conversation about him for a while now. CJ Stroud, okay? And now I've been in the depths of Texans Reddit trying to understand if there's actually some diehard fans who think Davis Mills is better than CJ Stroud. Thank God the Reddit is right and that no one's really considering that Davis Mills is better. However, Davis Mills obviously won these last three games.

12:17CJ Stroud was underwhelming to start the season. He was underwhelming last year, got an offensive coordinator and Bobby Sloan fired. Now going into this stretch here, and let's look at the schedule again. Remember, it's most at stake over these next six weeks. They have a real shot at making the playoffs if they go four and two over this stretch. They have at Colts, at Chiefs, two hard games coming up. then Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, and then Colts again at home. If they split the games with the Colts and then lose to the Chiefs, but beat the Cardinals, beat the Raiders, and beat the Chargers, there's a better than 75 % chance that they make the playoffs according to the New York Times playoff predictor.

12:51So they need to go pretty much four and two down that stretch and specifically split those games at least with the Colts. If CJ Stroud, who since week one of last season, mind you, is 22nd in EPA per dropback, 24th in net yards per attempt, and 25th in success rate, quarterbacks in that same tier, are Aaron Rodgers, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Russell Wilson. He has been, by every valuable metric, bad over the last two seasons now. And obviously, you have the injuries this year. I think he's been playing better before he got hurt. And I think when he comes back, the offensive line looks better.

13:21Nico Collins looks better. There's a chance he comes back and things start to look better. But if they don't, and Davis Mills wins these three games, CJ Stroud comes back, they go 3-3 or 2-4 down the stretch. They miss the playoffs again. It's going to get harder and harder to remember that rookie season where he won rookie of the year and he won that playoff game and everyone's really excited about him. This like maybe he's like a top eight, top six quarterback in the league and you're coming down this contract. Are you going to give CJ Stroud $55 million a year? You know, David Milgetta, his agent, you know, he's going to be aggressive trying to get money.

13:50Like, are you going to get, are you going to feel confident as a Texans fan giving CJ Stroud $55 million a year after now what would be back-to-back seasons of underwhelming play and maybe even another offensive coordinator, right? We don't even know if Texans are going to go with Nick Kaley, the new OC this year. again after kind of what has happened this year. I just feel like CJ Stroud coming back from injury after where Davis Mills was, how good this Texans defense is, maybe the best in the NFL, you can't come down the stretch here with, I think, not an easy schedule, but definitely a winnable schedule to get into the playoffs.

14:19I think if he misses the playoffs, I think there are going to be some real concerns around CJ Stroud in the offseason.

14:23Austin Gayle:At first, I was wondering, why do you have CJ Stroud on this list? I was kind of like, well, what does he actually have at stake? You know, it's not that big of a deal, but the money thing is really, The contract thing is huge because like you said, he's eligible for that extension this off season. And Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love are making$55 million per year. You know, I wouldn't put those two in the same tier. I'm just giving you two guys in that range, but that's the neighborhood we're shopping in. If we're talking about CJ Stroud, now the Texans don't have to do anything. He's under contract next year.

14:54Austin Gayle:Then they got the fifth year option. Then they had the franchise tag. So if they want to slow play it, they can slow play it or they can commit to him and say, no, you're our guy. And so, yeah, let's just like, you know, nip this Davis Mills comparison in the bud here, because I think we got a natural experiment. Stroud versus Mills, you know, similar supporting cast. I know guys were injured at various times, but Stroud just this season, you gave the numbers the last two seasons. No one's denying last year was bad. I think it did kind of go under the radar that he was improving a little bit this year.

15:24Austin Gayle:And the offense was showing strides. You know, he's 16th in EPA per pass play, 18th in success rate this season. So you're saying, all right, mediocre, competent play. Davis Mills is 30th and 33rd. So you are, we can at least, no, this isn't like a great experiment, but you could tell, all right, he is maybe turning this from one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL to a mediocre passing game, which is something. It's not what you want if you're a big CJ Stroud fan. And I think he's got a higher ceiling, but you can at least say that. So the Texans have not won three in a row because of Davis Mills.

15:55Austin Gayle:They have won three in a row. He had the great comeback against the Jaguars, but it's been, like you mentioned, their defense looks incredible. right now. And you know what? You were laying out the scenario earlier. I think they're getting in and I've been, you know, they've, they've sucked me in before and I've gotten burned by this Texans team. I, I joke that with the rigor one Oh seven, I'd be in first place if I just didn't take the Texans all year long, but I lose on the Texans pretty much every week. But you know what? I'm going back in because I think you just need mediocre offensive play with that defense is going to be enough to get back in the playoff picture.

16:28Austin Gayle:I even look at the division, Austin, they're plus 750 to win the division. And I'm like, that seems like, it's not going to shock me if they beat the Colts twice. It's not the most likely outcome, but it's certainly possible with that defense. So maybe I'll get burned again. I'm with you. I think if he plays well down the stretch, now we're talking about, all right, now the off season, you're giving him that money and you're feeling really good about this team. So there is kind of the high variance with what could happen here over the next six weeks with Stroud. That's exactly how I'm seeing it.

16:57I think there's a huge range of outcomes for C.J. Stroud and how Texans fans, I think, specifically are feeling about C.J. Stroud, depending on how these next six games go, right? If he, you know, at Colts, at Chiefs, he loses back-to-back games, doesn't look good. And then every game down the stretch is a playoff game. They probably miss it and they don't go into the playoffs. I think a lot of, Texans fan at the bar is going to be like, I miss Davis Mills. He won three games for us. I miss Davis Mills. That sounds like a video content idea, by the way. I would watch that. Real heads are going to be like, no, C.J.

17:26Stroud still has it. Wasn't a good year. Offensive line, we've got to figure it out. You know, we had the Iowa State receiving core for some of the season. Nico Collins has missed time. It all will line up. The defense looks good. You have something to build off of. However, if it looks bad down the stretch and the offense looks inept as it had maybe in the early parts of the season and you're going into another offseason where CJ Straub didn't win a playoff game and look bad down the stretch, I do think it's going to be hard to even consider extending him this offseason. Anytime I think about maybe playing it out as you go, like you do the one more year and then the fifth-year option, then maybe franchise tag.

17:59It's kind of like playing it out as the Cowboys did with Dak Prescott in a way. I think that I'm leaning much more toward after these two seasons and if it ends as poorly as it could this season of waiting another offseason to see if Stroud, again, I just want to see Stroud look like a top-10 quarterback in the league again. I felt that way his rookie year. I felt like, oh my God, he's making the leap right away. I feel really good about him being maybe even a top-eight, top-six quarterback in the league. He's going to be competing with these guys at the top of the AFC. since then, it's hard to feel that way.

18:27And I think until then, when you're, because obviously when you're going to the quarterback contract negotiation, everyone's starting at this like$50 million number now. I think you can't pay a quarterback that number unless you honestly feel he can be that top 10, top eight quarterback in the league that can like win you road playoff games in January and February. I'm not feeling that way about TJ's draft right now. And I think these next six weeks will kind of be a big part of what that discussion ends up being in the off season. I'm with you.

18:53Austin Gayle:If he doesn't, like unless he goes on a tear here, I would be inclined to slow play it a little bit, which is easy for me to say. There are relationship dynamics and agent relationships and all those things. But I would just be like, let's not get into a, to a sorry, Dolphins fans situation where all of a sudden we're looking back in two years going, why did we rush that? Or Daniel Jones? We could have just waited a little bit here. So there you go. All right. So Texans fan at the bar, Austin video idea. You're at the bar, red Davis Mills jersey. You're crushing Michelob Ultras. maybe you're ripping a couple cigarettes and you're telling us that the Texans could actually get to the Super Bowl with Davis Mills.

19:29Austin Gayle:I'm just telling you I'd watch it. I'm just saying there are a handful of Texans fans at bars. If they lose these games, they're going to be like, dude, I miss Davis Mills. I think he can sling it. I think he can sling it. I want Mills in. I think CJ Stroud is like standard deviations better than Davis Mills. But this league is what have you done for me lately? And if CJ Straub down the stretch, you're coming back from injury after Davis Mills wins three games and they miss the playoffs and he doesn't play well. That's what's going to drive the conversation in the offseason. I hear you. All right, let's take a break.

20:01Austin Gayle:We come back one more. Who does he have next on his list for the most at stake the rest of the regular season? This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field, but getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure, they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance when they're State Farm. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Somewhere out there is a Chevy truck and the person who drives it, well, that's a Chevy person.