Trades That We Want to See in the First Round of the NFL Draft!

21:08Austin Gayle:And that was really kind of the building blocks for what they're doing here. All right. I mean, even if they hit two of those three, right, which is why I think part of the reason why I kind of want to keep that other top 40 pick. You hit two of the three and you get another McDuffie, obviously that's kind of like the peak outcome, but like another McDuffie caliber player on a rookie contract that becomes an asset for you to trade if you get to that place, but also just someone who's like providing more value than their contract, which they desperately need. That's kind of where I think they have to look at with this draft.

21:35Like, let's go get guys that can win right now, play right now, and kind of like, I think over, you know, kind of just like overplayed their value on these contracts because they need young, cheap players. It's going to be, you know, these teams that like, not over invest, but invest a ton of capital in quarterback. You're going to need obviously like cheap players on these rookie deals. And it's a big reason why I think, I think we always like with these, with this, with the Superbowl era for the Chiefs, like obviously Mahomes is like the first, second, third, fourth, fifth name people bring up, but you think about how they've drafted and just the value that they've gotten on rookie contract players in that time, I think is a big reason why too, that Chiefs dynasty, like, or mini dynasty, whatever it is, like, actually propel through.

22:10It was like, they were hitting on a lot of picks, specifically on defense, and getting value over, over what they were spending in a big way.

22:16Austin Gayle:See, I'm split on that because it's all so hard for me to say, well, were they hitting on picks or did they have specific coaches who were getting stuff out of guys? Now, obviously, it's going to be a little bit of both, but, you know, like, I think that's still hitting on, though. Like, you draft a luxurious seed in the fourth round, and your defensive coordinator knows how to turn him in to, like, a legit start. Like that's, that's a hit, right? Same with like the Brian Cook, Trent McDuffie, Corloft is arguably a hit. Chris Jones has been a massive hit for them. I think Drew Tranquil was a hit for them.

22:44They've figured, I don't think they drafted him though, but like, I think they've figured out how to, I think Spagnuolo specifically has figured out how to maximize a lot of that defensive talent where they need help. I think his offense, right? It's like the guys that they've drafted, like Clyde Edwards, I don't think they're getting what they expected out of Xavier Worthy. Like they need to hit on some offensive skill player picks to, to, to, I think really take this to the next level. Cause you're running out now, No Tyreek Hill, no Travis Kelsey soon. He's going to need some more weapons.

23:07Austin Gayle:All right, let's take a break. We come back. More trades. I may have some players, maybe at least one player trade mixed in here. Is there going to be a Ty Simpson trade in this fake trade exercise? We've got some more. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepetide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off. ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection.

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25:52Austin Gayle:Or to get to when we come back. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. Now, this one might be the most unlikely to happen because it involves the team that you're wearing their hat right now, the Cincinnati Bengals, and they kind of don't make trades. I was reading the story in The Athletic. It was like, what did it say here? They've made one trade during the draft in the last three years and zero, zero trades in the last two years, not even like a sixth round pick swap or anything like that. So this is not a team that makes a lot of trades during the draft. But you know what? This is a podcast.

26:29Austin Gayle:So we're allowed to say that the Bengals are going to make a trade here. Now, maybe the most obvious pairing, the one you see everywhere, Austin, is Bengals at number 10, Caleb Downs. Safety makes all the sense in the world. But what if Jerry Jones comes to Colin and says, you know what? We have two first round picks, 12 and 20. We have, where I'm looking at our draft board We have Caleb Downs as the last player In this top tier of guy We believe it can be like a multi-time all pro And so we want to make a deal with you Cincinnati We will give you 12 and 20 Both our first round picks For 10 and 41 So you're moving down two spots in the first round But then you're moving up 21 spots from 41 to 20 because that's how much conviction we have in Caleb Downs.

27:24Austin Gayle:That's the player we want because we feel like, you know what? We're going to be a pretty good football team this year with our offense set up the way it is, our new defensive coordinator. We just are like two difference makers away on defense. And we feel so strongly that Caleb Downs is one of those players. What do you think, Austin? I think I really like it for the Bengals. I think coming down and getting another first round pick and moving that much, you know, that further up into the second round. but I guess though but passing up on downs and then I'm trying to think of who they get at 12 and 20 oh let me see I feel like I went over this here's who I had them taking I don't know if you love either of these players but Keldrick Falk at 12 and then they can have their choice of kind of a defensive back at 20 I went with Avion Terrell but if they want one of the safety from Toledo McLeod, Emmanuel McLeod Warren, if they want him, if they want someone else or another cornerback that they like.

28:22Austin Gayle:So I have them getting a D lineman and a corner instead of Caleb Downs. Yeah. I mean, if they get Emmanuel McNeil Warren, the Toledo safety at 20 or McNeil at 20 and then at 12, they're able to get like a Keldrick fall. I think I'd like it. And I think that's, I think they need volume on defense in Cincinnati more than they kind of need one star player. And for Dallas, I like the overconfidence of Jerry and him coming up. I think I can get by this. I like I'd have to see how it works out in the draft value tracker. How much value are they giving up versus getting a return, kind of going down those 20 spots.

28:55But if it lines up, I think I can start to get on board. See, I feel like

28:59Austin Gayle:I did that one and then I'm like, I wonder if I'm the Bengals if I would just be like, I'd rather just have down. They just have downs. And their next pick would be at 41 and maybe they're getting just like not that caliber of defensive back. That's kind of where I landed with that. Now, again, I have the same role you do, that I don't want to be overconfident that, oh, no, I know Caleb Downs is going to be amazing, but I do think most teams would have him projected on a different tier than maybe the other players who might be available. So let's see. Maybe the Bengals. Maybe we called it. You know, everyone's saying they never make a trade.

29:33Austin Gayle:They don't trade. But this is the year. They say, we've heard those narratives. And when Jerry calls, we listen. Certainly the Cowboys are an interesting, teams in the first round. Because even if they stay put and just take two defensive players, we might be looking at them differently. They have the ammo to move up if they move up and now they get a stud. And we're like, wow, that guy's going to really make a difference in the first round. They have that optionality where it's going to be really interesting to see what they do. And it could impact sort of how we view them going into 2026 here.

30:06Austin Gayle:Austin, all right. This next one, I already know you're not going to like it, but you know what? I'm going with, because I know this is another trade up and this is the Philadelphia Eagles where most people would say the Eagles are a sharp organization. You know, they're a model franchise. And for the draft, if you're analytically sound, you never trade up. Guess what team trades up or tries to trade up pretty much every single year. It's the Eagles. It's Howie Roseman. Even last year for Jihad Campbell, if you remember the reporting, they were trying to trade up with the Chargers to get Jihad Campbell, an off-ball linebacker.

30:42Austin Gayle:They end up not having to do that. And then they just make a small trade up there in the first round and land him. But if you look at all these, you know, Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, they're trading up almost every single year in the first round. Devontae Smith. Devontae Smith were trying to. So Kenyon Sadiq, Austin, he starts falling a little bit and he's available at 17. The Detroit Lions are on the board and the Eagles are saying, you know what? The Vikings are up next. We could kind of see Kevin O 'Connell being like, oh man, the things I can do with Kenyon Sadiq. And the Eagles are looking at it going, we have Dallas Goddard on a one-year deal.

31:21Austin Gayle:We don't have a plan for tight end here going forward. We have Sadiq ranked really highly. What would we have to give up? And they go back and they look at the different trades of the previous years and they look at 2024. the Vikings moved up for Dallas Turner an identical move up 23 to 17. So we're going to do similar compensation here. Eagles are going to give up a third round pick 68 overall. And then they're going to give up a fourth next year. And they're going to say, we want Kenyon Sadiq to be one of our major weapons on offense. We might trade AJ Brown in June. and we need to build those top three pass catchers that every offense needs to have.

32:05Austin Gayle:And we believe Sadiq can be that guy. What do you think? So they only give up a third and a fourth to go up about six spots and they get Sadiq. Yeah, so the Vikings, when they did this, I believe they gave up, I believe it was a third and another third, but their third was not, I think it was a different, it wasn't as high as 68 for the Eagles. So yeah, it ends up being a similar comp to what the Vikings did in 2024 in that Dallas Turner trade. I think I'm just not, maybe the compensation is fine. I'm just like not there with Sadiq, especially if like I'm now thinking about him as I'm giving up three picks to go get Sadiq, who honestly, if like gun to my head, when is Sadiq going to be at his best on his second contract or on his first?

32:55Every day of the week, I'm saying his second contract. He feels like the prototypical tight end that everyone can buy into because of all the traits and the tools. He didn't have the production in college. He didn't command targets in college yet, but man, what this player could be, he's young. He screams to me exactly the kind of player where his rookie contract is a little bit of a disappointment. And then he starts to hit maybe not his athletic prime, but his NFL caliber prime on that second contract. Kind of like Evan Ingram, kind of like where I think Pitts could be. I don't know. I think trading future capital or any kind of draft capital to go up and get Sadiq kind of scares me.

33:28When like, I think that the Eagles would be smarter trading up for one of the receivers if they fall to this spot, or kind of even staying put, looking at trenches, looking at edge, looking at the secondary. I don't know. I don't think Sadiq's the kind of guy that I'm ultimately just giving up that kind of capital for.

33:41Austin Gayle:See, when you do this exercise and you try to map out the trade-ups, I end up being with you. I'm like, I wouldn't do this if I were trading up. But then you look at previous drafts and you're like, well this is what the teams did so like it was terrible the Vikings for Dallas Turner was a disaster the Falcons was terrible Browns trade I mean the Jags training up for Hunter was terrible like they haven't Brian Thomas Jr like they're trying to get out of that Brian Thomas Jr thing now like I think that oftentimes when you do trade up for players you you miss and like you end up missing it's not just about missing on the player it's like you miss on that capital that never was that player right like I think um I don't know I and it's not I don't think it's as simple as any more of like training up for a not quarterback.

34:21I think it's like the confidence in your projection is a piece that the player and the positional value is a part of it. And then also like, obviously it's like, does he come in and immediately fill this need? Is he coming in on a rookie contract and being that player? Like I would still expect Dallas Goddard kind of right away to have more targets than Sadiq in year one or something you're kind of roping in hoping by year two, year three, you're starting to get. So I don't know. I think it's, it's tough for a Sadiq type of player who I feel like is still like, I think a lot of people will call him a project.

34:46Austin Gayle:Tight end has been tricky because for years there, I was just pointing to tight ends taken in the first round and specifically the top 10. And I'm just like, this is a disaster. Like it's not working. And then you had the Brock Bowers thing and then you had Colston Loveland last year and you were like, oh, Tyler Warren. You're like, maybe this is changing a little bit, but is that a small sample? Are those guys outliers? Are they in a different class of prospect than Sadiq? All those things are entirely possible. And so maybe you're right about that, that it would be wise to be a little bit hesitant there with the tight end.

35:19Austin Gayle:I was just trying to figure out who are the Eagles going to try to trade up for. And I was like, huh, this point in the draft, maybe it's a receiver, like you said. Maybe we're not thinking about that, but maybe there's a receiver they have in a different tier than the guys that would be available to them at 23. Maybe it is someone like Jordan Tyson. And they said, we're confident in the medicals here. They've gone after guys in recent years who have had medical issues and other teams take them off their board, even with Jihad Campbell last year. And they're like, no, we're confident this guy's going to be good.

35:50Austin Gayle:So maybe it's another player I'm not thinking about. Also playing with kind of a long leash, right? Like they have, Howie's got mistakes to burn, you know, in terms of before anyone's starting to kind of question things. It just happened while we started recording, but the Eagles traded for Don TV on Wix. And while we're on the Eagles... Really? Okay. Yeah, everyone's talking about, is AJ Brown going to get traded? And we're talking about draft day trades. A lot of the reporting has been that he's going to get traded after June 1st because there's some dead money that hits or whatever. Do you think he gets traded on draft night?

36:19I think that the... And this is what a lot of people are reporting as well, is that the Eagles are kind of operating as if he's already not on the team. And I think this Wix trade is a piece of that. They signed Hollywood Brown. Do you think he gets traded on draft night? And I guess, what are the odds of that? And then do you think he ultimately gets traded after June 1st before the season.

36:34Austin Gayle:I think he gets traded in June. Yeah, I would say, and this isn't like, I don't know this, but I would say if I had to guess that they have parameters in place, probably with the Patriots. Maybe there's a mystery team we don't know about. But part of like GMing is like your trust with other GMs and other teams in the NFL. And Howie Roseman's been around so long that I feel like they can have that conversation that, hey, we know it's not 100%, but barring something crazy like Devontae Smith having an injury in the offseason or one of these great wide receivers unexpectedly falling to you, the Patriots at 31.

37:07Austin Gayle:We're both on the same page that here are the trade terms. We'll wait until June to execute it. We both won't leak it to the media because we know you're not allowed to project June 1st trades into the future. You can't be like, all right, this has been agreed to, but we're going to execute it on June 1st. You're not allowed to do that. So I think they're just keeping it quiet and saying June 1st, this will happen. Maybe I'll be wrong, but I'm still operating under the idea that AJ Brown, I'll believe it when I see it, that he, you know, is in an Eagles uniform. He's playing for the Eagles in week one.

37:38Yeah, yeah. I think I'm with you. I think I'm like 90 plus percent sure he's on another team. I think the Patriots being that likely one. Can I throw a couple of trades at you? What did the Eagles give up for Wicks first? Is that out there? I don't know. I haven't seen the reporting of what they've given out for Wicks, but I mean, he's getting a one year, $12.5 million extension. I can't imagine the capital is significant. It's going to be some day three swap stuff probably.

37:58Austin Gayle:Really getting a$12.5 million extension? Don Tavion Wicks. Okay. That's interesting. I liked Wicks coming out of Virginia while we're on the draft. I think he's a separator. I think the problem has been his hands. And I think that's a lot of the frustration with Packers fans when you bring up Wicks. He has really inconsistent drop issues. And that plagues guys that just constantly get open. That can be a real bad Achilles heel to have, even if you do get constantly open. But I don't know. $12.5 million? I'm wondering what the compensation has been. I don't think it's going to be significant. And if the Eagles are already kind of preparing for life without A.J.

38:31Brown, I like this idea of taking a handful of Darth Rose, Hollywood Brown, Dontavion Wicks, maybe you're looking at someone in the draft. I think that's smart. And they're kind of starting fresh. I don't know. We haven't talked a ton about the Jalen Hurts hit piece that came out a couple weeks ago. But one of my reads out of it was I think that the Eagles feel almost more committed to Sean Mannion and what he's going to kind of bring and change with this offense than they do necessarily even to Hurts. And I think giving him a handful of flavors at receiver and not like this diva that's going to command targets no matter what, win or lose, I think probably is the right fit for Mannion, who is a very green coach and going to be a brand new play caller, kind of getting an opportunity to kind of run it how he wants with a handful of options and no like real, real pressure to focus it to certain guys.

39:17Austin Gayle:Yeah, we'll see. You know, if you come in, Stoutland's gone. No, AJ Brown. All right, run the show. How does it look? Oh, it's a hard thing to do. Yeah, it's hard. But yeah, no, they obviously, like, basically their season next year is going to go. However, Sean Mannion gets it to go. And so the Packers real quick. So they lose Dobbs and now they trade Wicks here in the offseason. So that's a little bit interesting. They're doing a little reshaping too on the offensive side of the ball. All right, go ahead. You want to, you're up. You have some fake trades too. I don't want to monopolize it. So what do you got?

39:50Austin Gayle:Give me one to chew on here. Do you want some more Max Crosby fan fiction or do you want mystery player that I think could get moved that I want to move? Let's do the Max Crosby one. Then we take a break. We keep the audience on the edge of their seat and then we come back and we get to your mystery player. Let's do that. I think two spots where they're going to be on the clock and now it's not 10 minutes a pick. It's eight minutes a pick now. I don't know if you saw that. They're going to make this draft film really quick. Was that just announced? I saw that today. Did we know that before? we didn't know that right I don't know if we knew that but I think it's we might have known that like we might have forgotten but it's starting to kind of like starting to find everything now I feel for Danny Kelly our NFL draft analyst who does the draft grades every year getting 10 minutes to write that's tough now he's got 8 minutes it's going to be it's going to be a high tie for my boy but I think there's going to be some teams with those 8 minutes that are like hmm do we want to take the player that's fallen to us here or do we want to call the Raiders about Max Crosby and I think the first spot where I'm feeling that is at 13 with the Rams You know, a team that we know is an F them picks kind of team.

40:56Right. And I think at 13, if the receiver they wanted isn't there and they couldn't get a trade up done to go get Tate or go get whoever. And they're sitting there and the Raiders who just traded Max Crosby for the 14th overall pick and a 2027 first. It's the Rams there at 13, maybe offering a 2027 first where there's more confidence probably from the Rams and the Raiders that that pick is going to be somewhere between like pick 26 and 32 in 2027 because the Rams are kind of going all in. They just rebuilt the secondary. But so you're getting a very, probably a late 2027 first and the 13th overall pick for Max Crosby.

41:28Part of me feels like that could be in play. Part of me feels like that's like that first spot. And then this other one I have, and I think where it really heats up is the Lions at 17. And if they weren't able to go get Monroe Freeling or the tackle they think is going to help solve that offensive line, and they're sitting there and like, wait, this did not pan out as we expected. Do they just go get Max Crosby and say, hey, it's unacceptable for our defense to be kind of middle of the pack and pressure rate. We need to be better there. We need someone to compliment Aiden Hutchinson. I think their projected starter right now is DJ Wanham opposite of Hutchinson.

41:54That's just not going to work. I think at 13 for the Rams, 17 for the Lions, that two firsts is going to get brought up again. And maybe it's a conditional first in 2027, but I think there's going to be teams looking at this draft crowd and saying, oh my gosh, the guys that we wanted are there. Do we just call the Raiders about Crosby and kind of go throw out those two firsts again?

42:10Austin Gayle:So you think that the Raiders, now that you are a Raiders, you actually think that they can still get two first round picks for Max Crosby? I think so. I think that you can. I think that there could be a conditional first where he has to have a certain amount of sacks. But I think a lot of the concern, and the Ravens said this too, is that it's the longevity of his knee, which I think everyone at 29, 30 years old with multiple knee surgeries, everyone should be concerned about the longevity of his knee. But I don't think people are worried about 2026, 2027 Crosby. I don't think even the Ravens were worried about that.

42:42So I think it has to be a team that is saying, yo, our window is shrinking, right? With how long is the Jared Goff experience going to go? He turns 32, I think this year in Detroit, they've already now are cycling through offensive play callers after Ben Johnson left. Like there's pressure, I think in Detroit to figure out what this immediate future looks like. And with the Rams, we know they're going all in. We know that whoever they pick at 13 probably isn't going to be as valuable to their team in 2026 than Max Crosby. And do they have to give up 2027 capital? Sure. Is it matching what the Raiders got?

43:09Sure, kind of, but a late 2027 first and 13 for a player that you know, I think right away is going to do what they need right now, which is you got probably one good Stafford season left. If that, I don't know. I think those teams are going to be the kinds of ones that are thinking about it, even if you're matching the price point that Baltimore spent and there should be this haircut, right? But I think there's different opinions on Crosby's knee. And I think the speculation that there's like long-term concerns and stuff. I don't know. I think a lot of other teams, when the rubber hits the road and you're looking at this draft class and you're saying, what can I do to help the team right now?

43:38I think Crosby is going to be a name that comes up.

43:40Austin Gayle:A trade with conditions with him makes all the sense in the world. If you're like, all right, we're giving up our first this year and then whatever it is, maybe it's a, can you do a third that could turn into a second or a first? I don't know if you've ever seen that before. Probably. I think you can do anything. I mean, if Kirk Cousins can make all the money he has in the NFL, I think you could do it. There's a homework clause in Kyler Murray's contract in Arizona. I think there's a lot that can be done in those. Yeah, usually, you know, it's just one round and then if it meets conditions, it goes to the next round.

44:06Austin Gayle:But why do we have to stop there? Maybe it's a third, but it turns into a second if he has 10 sacks. It turns into a first if he's a first team all pro or if your team gets to the Super Bowl or whatever. Or maybe you look down the road and you say, if you're really concerned about his contract, we'll take a 20-28 pick. You know, maybe you do that. You say, how about a 20-28 second that turns into a first if one of these things happens over the next two years with Max Crosby? You could do that as well. So I do think there's a way to get creative with Crosby. And especially as going through this exercise and looking at the prospects available, I couldn't help but just get into like, if I'm this team, I would rather just make a big play for Max Trosby.

44:46Austin Gayle:Honestly. Pick one of these players. And I know that's not always the smart thing to do, but it feels like maybe there's an opportunity there. And when you mentioned the Rams, he really, that fit I hadn't thought of, but that would really have a force multiplier effect, I think, on that. Because that is a talented defensive front. There are games where you're like, well, they're not exactly taking over the game, but I like all these players. But now you had Crosby and now you've got all the other guys. You've got Verse and you've got Young and you've got Turner and you've got Fist. Now it's like, oh my gosh, this could be actually be, you know, a top three defensive line in the NFL.

45:20Austin Gayle:You already addressed cornerback this off season. So yeah, Rams could give new meaning to their F10 picks thing. If not only did they make the McDuffie trade, if now they make a Crosby trade as well there. So I like that one a lot. All right, we'll take a break. we come back the mystery player that Austin teased and I've got I've got a player trade here which might be my favorite of all the projected trades I've given you Austin so we'll do all that when we come back alright we're back here on the Ringer NFL show alright Austin who is this mystery player now it would be really funny if it was like a player the level of Dontavian Wicks after I just built it up and made people know okay it's a little bit bigger alright go ahead I did initially include Anthony Richardson Jr.

46:06to the Packers, but then I reread your Slack saying just first round stuff, and that would be like a sixth and seventh round swap. I still like it, yeah. I do think Anthony Richardson to the Packers, and what LeFleur was able to do with three Malik Willis starts and turn him into whatever the Dolphins paid him, I imagine three starts with Anthony Richardson, what could possibly happen there. Cannon arm, really fast, really athletic, there's something there. But the real player that I think could move first round capital potentially is Devon HN, the Miami Dolphins running back where I know he's like, believe what the dolphins

46:37Austin Gayle:are saying about him being a foundational piece. Oh, you do. Okay. I do. Cause you know how you really rack up trade value is you tell people that you're not trading him and that he's a fan foundational piece. That's what the Raiders did the entire Max Crosby. Everyone felt he was going to get traded. And when they asked Spitek at the, at the combine, is he going to be a Raider in 2026? He's like, yeah, he is. It's like, okay, well you lie, right? It's like, you just lie straight to them to make sure. Cause if he's like, I don't know, maybe Devon HN isn't a piece. It's hard to pay running backs.

47:02That just does. What does that do for you? That does nothing for you. But I think there's reports now that he's not going to voluntary mini camp or OTAs or whatever it is. And he wants a new contract. There's been reporting that he's going to reset the running back market. If the dolphins pay Malik Willis and then give Devon H hand top of the running back market money while essentially dismantling the rest of the roster, they have like over$180 million dedicated to players who aren't on their team. They traded away Jalen Waddle. I will be kind of completely dumbfounded by what they're doing. I don't, I would not understand the Malik Willis contract.

47:33I would not understand the Devon HN contract if it does happen. So I do think they should be shopping him and committing publicly that he's a foundational piece, but also taking calls. And one team that I like, I think this would maybe be stupid by them because I don't think they have an offensive line ready for it, but I think they need more fireworks. The Houston Texans who are picking 28 in the first round and they're sitting there at 28. They're looking for a weapon. Maybe they want to add along the offensive line. And I think there could be some tackles there or even like Emmanuel Pregnone of Oregon where it makes sense.

48:00but do they just get flashy? Do they get sexy? And they say, we're going to go get Devon HN. Yes, they brought in David Montgomery, but an HN Montgomery combination, right? Where we're going to need to figure out the offensive line as we go. Does just giving up 28th overall for HN move you? And who says no? To remind you, the last big running back trade that we really had was the McCaffrey one, who's only 26 years old on a four-year$64 million deal. And I think the Niners gave up a second, third, fifth, and fourth. Yeah. And he had been injured a bunch. Yes, yes. It's easy to forget now.

48:33Austin Gayle:He was an unknown. At that time, it was like, we don't know if we're ever going to see the same guy again. Of course, we did. But wow. So this would be different, right? LeSean McCoy was 26 years old when they got traded straight up for Kiko Alonso. And then McCaffrey was at the 2, 3, 4, 5. A-Chan, who is 24 years old, is going to require this big payday coming off just his first 1 ,000-yard season. He's 190 pounds. He's 5 '8". I don't know. Maybe 28th overall does get it done. That even could be too rich. A first round pick for a running back in the year 2026, Austin. I mean, that would be...

49:05Austin Gayle:Maybe it's a bad call. Well, no, no. Because as you were describing it, it's not like the craziest thing for the Texans to do. Now, I wouldn't do it if I were the Texans. I'm just not giving up a first round pick for a running back who I then have to pay at the top of the market. I would not want to get in that business. But I don't know that they would feel the same way. If I'm the Dolphins, I'm doing it. If I can get a first round pick for them, Very fun player. Great player to watch. Was terrific last year. Over 1 ,800 yards from scrimmage. Is a home run threat anytime he touches the ball. I love watching him play.

49:36Austin Gayle:But you are right that if you're blowing it up with Jalen Waddell and you're kind of in that Jets mode a little bit of just like, we are resetting this entire thing. I mean, they've got 11 picks in this draft. Now three are in the top 50. They've got seven picks in the top 100, which I believe is the most of any team. So if you're just like, let's take as many dart throws as we can, premium positions, let's rebuild this thing. All right, maybe we don't have the quarterback. Maybe we do. We're taking a flyer on him for two years, but let's at least build up the rest of the roster with good young players so that two years from now, if it's not Malik Willis, now we can be in the market for a good veteran quarterback and maybe we actually have a good team.

50:18Austin Gayle:So I do like that one. I would do it if I were the Dolphins. I would not do it if I were the Texans. but I don't think you're crazy to propose it. I like it because it's not a name we've talked about because I was falling for John Eric Sullivan just telling me that you can't trade to Von Achan. Come on, you're crazy? The best players in the league are the guys you should not trade, but they end up kind of needing to. I just think it's hard to look at their cap situation and then if Achan is holding out right now and they do come to a contract agreement for the season, this is going to be a team that is paying Malik Willis over$20 million per year and then also traded away Jalen Waddell has$180 million committed to players that aren't on the roster.

50:57Oh, and they just paid Devon H. on a record-breaking contract, a running back.

51:00Austin Gayle:No wide receivers, no cornerbacks. Yeah. You know, I don't think you'd call him like an injury concern. He has had injuries in his career and he's 5 '8", 190 pounds, right? Like that to me just doesn't feel like, you know, everyone's talking about the Packer way in Miami now because they have the GM and obviously the head coach. I don't think it's going in the right direction to say, hey, you know what? We are going to commit a shitload of resource to the running back position, even though we don't really feel like we are in a place to compete defensively or even just like rosterable. Yeah, at this point in where they are as a franchise, I don't know that that would make a lot of sense, but we'll see what happens there.

51:35Austin Gayle:All right, I have two more for you, Austin. Okay. Sweet. I had to throw a Ty Simpson one in there, really, because I just want your take on the Ty Simpson discourse and whether you think it's reasonable, whether you think it's wild, whether you think the draft should just start three weeks earlier every season. But the team I was looking at, and this has been a popular one, is the Arizona Cardinals. Because you always have to look at which GM's trying to save their jobs here. Is Monte Austin Ford feeling pressure? Is he really going to go into a season where his job might be on the line with Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett?

52:10Austin Gayle:Or is he going to want to show ownership that, no, we actually do have a plan here at quarterback. So I've got the Cardinals trading back into the first round from 34 to 22 and making a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. Because the Chargers, Austin, only have five picks in this draft. One in the top 50. And so they maybe could use a little more draft capital. And so the Cardinals say, we want to move up from 34 to 22. We're going to do a very similar trade to the Jackson Dart trade from a year ago. We're going to give you a third this year, number 65 overall. and we're going to give you a 20-27 fourth because we want to get back up in the first round ahead of the Cleveland Browns there because maybe they'd be interested in Ty Simpson and we're going to take Ty Simpson at 22.

52:59Austin Gayle:So Cardinals go from 34 to 22, give up a third this year and a 20-27 fourth to the Chargers. What do you think? First of all, I think that Ty Simpson is probably worth that, right? I think that it's been, you know, a lot of the conversation about Ty Simpson versus Fernando Mendoza. You know, Ty Simpson was the projected number one overall pick the first nine weeks of the season. Over the second half, Simpson suffered all these injuries. His play completely collapsed. And Fernando Mendoza rose to one of the most accomplished college football seasons in history of the sport. And I think that's where a lot of this is split.

53:33But I think a lot of the second half of that season, you can kind of chalk up to injuries and you can buy that self-in. I think the reason to feel like Mendoza is the obvious decision at one over Simpson and why Simpson probably isn't worth a top 10 or top 20 pick potentially is because you have such a small sample size to evaluate what he's done. Think about how much our opinions change in the NFL on quarterbacks with Darnold and like the college level, like it can go from Garrett Nussmeyer's the future number of overall picks. Like, I don't even know if he's going to be there in round three or round four.

54:00Like he might just be like a day two, day three pick. And I think when you are evaluating Simpson, yes, it is easy to say the first eight to nine weeks of the season, he looked like this, but like we've only seen eight to nine weeks and we know our opinions on quarterbacks can change in two games. It can change in a half. And you just haven't seen a lot from Simpson or enough from Simpson to be really confident at all in your evaluation of him. And I think the other piece of it is he's got a little bit, he's like, his size isn't what you want. The arm talent isn't there. Like mobility is good, but it's not great.

54:26You're not betting on like a big toolsy player going up and going and getting him. So for me, why I like Simpson and why he probably is worth it is because I think he is really that other quarterback worth betting on after Mendoza. And there is stuff from the first part of that season where you really want to buy into that hype. And if it's only giving up a third and a future fourth, I think that's fine. You get the fifth-year option, which you're probably going to need if you're developing him probably as a backup out of the gate and then getting to see what he is two or three years down the road.

54:49So I do think a team does come up for Simpson in the first round. If I had to predict what's going to happen, I think he does. Some team does come up. I don't know necessarily if it's the Cardinals though, right? Because you mentioned the GM, Monte Austin, for is he kind of GMing for his job? A trade-off for Simpson, I think is an ownership decision, right? He's not going to go to ownership like this is our plan. I think it's more of like, hey, are you guys thinking about 2027? and you don't want us to kind of start spending this capital on a quarterback now and you're fine with Minshew and Bursette or like, could we, like maybe he's asked about that, but I wouldn't be surprised if ownership is kind of shutting that down and they're looking at the 2027 class.

55:20Whereas like, I think other teams that really like Simpson as a prospect know that he probably needs to be a backup right away. Whereas Arizona, they're going to have a quarterback competition the whole way through. That is where it starts to make more sense for me, where it's like a team like the Rams or whoever already has this capable starter that they feel like they're moving on from. Maybe it's the Steelers, right? To go up and get him and then kind of wait on him and develop him over time.

55:40Austin Gayle:You know, it will be one of the biggest stories in the first round, especially because of the conversation around him, like you alluded to. I'm still sticking to, I don't think anyone takes him in the first round because of the small sample. I think, you know, day two, first 10 picks, I think that's probably where he ends up going. But I could be wrong. I was looking at this. You mentioned, like you mentioned, the Steelers, maybe it's a team like the Cardinals, whoever. Maybe there is a team that will get back in there and try to draft him. I'm just not convinced that that small sample, you know, that has just been the trickiest thing with quarterback evaluation is just, that's been the one thing to not really get too confident on a very small sample with a quarterback that has burned teams time and again.

56:19Austin Gayle:So we'll see what happens there. But to your point, the Jackson dart trade last year, that's why you couldn't really rip that because it was like, this isn't like giving up three first round picks, you know, to move up to the top five for a quarterback. Like if you're giving up a third round pick or something, and it's a quarterback you like, I think you could almost always justify taking that type of flyer because the upside is so great that if he hits, you're going to be like, man, that was a fantastic trade. And if he doesn't hit, you can kind of live with it. So it always is, in my opinion, is okay when the risk isn't that bad for a quarterback like Ty Simpson.

56:53And I feel like with Jackson Dart, I think it was like McShay, I remember Tom McShay here at the Ringer was one of the first people to kind of like, I think he could go in the first round, right? Whereas, and that was kind of the conversation around him as a prospect. then he ends up going in the first round. Whereas Simpson, the first nine weeks of the season, same guy, Tom McShay, he's like, this is the best player in the draft. He's going to go number one overall. And then the injuries happen, things fall off, and things change. So I think that the key difference there is if you're going to go up and kind of take the flyer on this guy, it's not even that you're like, it's just, if you flipped Simpson's season, say he started the year, really hurt, didn't look great, really concerned.

57:26And then the second half of the season, he looks like just a completely different, they go on a run in the college football playoff. People are really excited. His best football is played when everyone's watching. I think you're talking probably about Simpson as a top 10 pick. It's like a lot of this is like recency bias. What is the last thing that you've seen? And like, I think if he was ending the season on a high, people start to feel like you're starting to, like Mitch Trubisky didn't have a ton of starts. Anthony Richardson didn't have a ton of starts, but they finished kind of hot and people were excited.

57:47And I think with Simpson, because it's that flip-flop, it's just easier for people to kind of say, ah, well, the last thing, I got the ick watching him the last few weeks of the season. It wasn't good. I also think, you know, Bama still has very blue blood. And when you think about college football, Alabama might be even the first school you think of. I think not a lot of people realize how bad their running game was last year. Like they could not run the football, which is not something you even expect from Alabama. Like a lot of this was on Simpson to be great and above and kind of what people expected.

58:11So I don't know. I think Simpson, it's like every discussion now, it's gotten too polarizing or it's like he's the best quarterback in the draft or I don't think anyone should draft him. I think it's actually somewhere in the middle where he's probably worth the fifth year option if you can get the right capital to call him up and go get him. But if you wait till day two, like I think that's okay too. but I don't think he should be a guy that's sliding past like pick 40.

58:31Austin Gayle:Somewhere between 20 and 40, I would say, is probably what he ends up going there. All right, my last one might be my favorite one here, Austin. Let's go. The Chicago Bears, I thought they were going to be a team you mentioned with Max Crosby. They were not. If there is a Crosby trade on the table, I think they are a team to keep an eye on, but I have them going for another defensive player because they've got the 25th pick. they trade 25 to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and a fourth pick 105 there. So I said earlier this week, I wasn't really buying the Dexter Lawrence trade request. I think he just wants a new deal.

59:09Austin Gayle:I think the Giants will end up giving him a new deal, but you never know. I'm not, you know, like some of these drafters, I'm not overconfident in my ability to predict what's going to happen with Dexter Lawrence. So the Bears get an impactful, disruptive front seven player. They pay Dexter Lawrence. He didn't have a great year last year, but give me a break. He's not like he's 35. He's still going to be a good player. And the Giants say, you know what? We don't want to pay him that kind of money. Let's go ahead and take that 25th overall pick and let's get a player on a rookie contract. Austin, what do you think?

59:40Austin Gayle:Bears trade 25 for Dexter Lawrence and a fourth. Who says no? I think it's interesting. I don't know if I'm at... You love Dexter Lawrence, by the way. I love Dexter Lawrence. I love Dexter Lawrence. I'm a big Dexter Lawrence guy. I still question if he's going to turn 29 this year. Coming off a down year, but I think talking to Heifetz, who's a big Giants fan, it sounds like it was more effort stuff and something that isn't... It's not like he's on a decline. So I don't think I'm there yet either. Max Crosby's 29. Trading a first-round pick for him, though, it feels like a pretty decent investment.

1:00:14You are getting the fourth back. I think I'm feeling it out and honestly just turning on more Lawrence tape. I think if I get this call, and I'm Chicago, I'm going to say, okay, let me actually rewatch the entire 2026 season Dexter Lawrence tape and figure out where I'm at with him right now. And then I feel like come back to you because I don't know. I feel like the first, initially when I saw Lawrence That means it's my best one. You can't decide. You got to go to the tape. So there you go. I think it is. I think it is. Because like Lawrence, when I initially saw the trade, I was like, okay, like day two something, right?

1:00:41Like what did Leonard Williams get traded for? Was he like a third round pick or something? It was like a second round pick. And now like maybe Dexter Lawrence is better than that, but he's 29 years old. He's wanting a new contract. Like I think like I start to really feel good about a Dexter Lawrence trade. If I know I'm giving up day two capital, first round capital feels like a lot. And for a player that is again, 29 and maybe he isn't on a decline yet, but like these things change quickly. As soon as you turn 30, things start to sour. I don't know. I, especially like, I think as soon as they call me, right.

1:01:07I'm going to say, okay, thank you. Let me think about it. I'm going to go watch the tape. I'm going to call the Raiders and be like, okay, we're thinking about moving first round pick 25. And they're not, the Raiders aren't going to give a fourth back. And maybe it's not too first, but do you start to talk about and say, we'll give you 25 and a 20, 27 second with conditions or a 20, 27 third and like start to really shop it out? Because if you're ultimately going to move that pick for Lawrence, I think even figuring out like AJ Brown, like, Hey, let's start shopping around here. If Lawrence is someone we're considering moving for that 25th overall pick, let's see who else is out there.

1:01:34Is it, you know, maybe is it H and is it Lawrence? Some of these guys, I don't know. I think it's like, it's not one that I'm like immediately saying yes to, but maybe that's a good thing.

1:01:42Austin Gayle:All right. I can just picture sometimes, you know, we said before, just picture the guy in the Jersey. I'm like, yeah, I could picture just Bears fans being out of their minds. Oh, my God, Dexter Lawrence, he's amazing. How did the Giants trade him? He's giving full effort next year. They're on a contending team. They're going crazy there. He's kind of the centerpiece of that defensive line. Of course, multiplier. Yeah, absolutely. Make everyone else better there. So we'll see. Again, I think probably John Harbaugh's just like, I would like to keep our good players and let's find a way to pay Dexter Lawrence.

1:02:11Austin Gayle:Even if it's not exactly what he wants, we can find a compromise there with guaranteed money or whatever. I think that's the most likely outcome, but who knows? Maybe I'll be wrong and they'll go in a different direction. All right, Austin, fun exercise. A lot of the pivot points, a lot of the major players here in the first round. Let's hope that some of those reports are right and we get a lot of trades here in the 2026 NFL draft. All right, thanks to Austin. Gail for joining me today. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Stefano Sanchez on video and additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal.

1:02:44Austin Gayle:Ram Gopal. I'm Shil Kapadi. We will talk to you next time on the Ring NFL Show.

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