Unanswered Questions: J.J. McCarthy, the Bears' Ceiling, and Who's the AFC Favorite?

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we are tackling some unanswered questions around the NFL. We're through 11 weeks. A lot has been settled in terms of division races and which teams are looking ahead to the offseason already. But there are some lingering questions that I wanted to get to, like who is the AFC favorite at this exact moment? Can the Bears actually win the NFC North? Didn't have a chance to talk about that game during yesterday's show. and how should Vikings fans feel about J.J. McCarthy? It's only been five games, but it hasn't been pretty. So to talk about it all, we've got my friend from Yahoo Sports and host of the Football 301 podcast, Nate Tice.

0:42Our J.J. McCarthy conversation was a lot of fun. I think you might be surprised by some of the things we thought after discussing that one. So really fun conversation always with Nate. Let's take a break. We come back and address some unanswered questions. Whether you're watching your favorite NBA team at the arena, the bar, or hanging at home, grab an ice-cold Michelob Ultra and enjoy every moment of the NBA season. Stock up today and watch your team drop buckets with a bucket full of ice-cold Ultra. Michelob Ultra. Superior light beer. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra.

1:22Registered light beer. St. Louis, Missouri. Must be 21 plus to order alcohol. Alcohol available only in select markets. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel's coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash Ringer NFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.

2:04Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

2:24All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show doing unanswered questions with my friend Nate Tice from Yahoo Sports, the football 301 podcast. All right, Nate, here's the first one I got for you. Who should be the AFC favorite right now? Because when I go onto this standings page, this is not what I envisioned coming into the season with the top four seeds being the Broncos, the Patriots, the Colts, the Steelers, the Bills as the first wild card, the Chiefs and the Ravens out. So I think it's actually a hard question. You know, I'm looking at the betting markets. I'm looking at the analytics and I'm trying to figure out who is the favorite right now.

3:03So you, if you had, I just, you know, gave you a bag of cash and said, if you pick the right team right now, you get all this. Who is the AFC favorite in your mind? And this is just, I'm actually disgusted with my answer. So, but, because I really wrote this out. I wrote out all strengths and weaknesses. I went on like team by team based on what their odds are at the moment. You know, like a proper analyst would. I'm still with the Chiefs. The team that is outside the playoffs. You are? Me too. Oh my God, this is great. Okay. Okay, because this is just in ranking of odds currently. Let's talk it out.

3:42I just went before. All right, Bills currently are the favorites, I believe, betting-wise. Run game, believe in. I believe in Josh Allen, of course, quarterback. I believe in the Joey Bosa pass rush. This defense is atrocious. This defense is bad. Like, and I know they had moments against the Chiefs, but that is just so crippling to me that it's just one of these. And, but I went through this on Football 301, our review show or recap show yesterday was, but everybody in the AFC has such weaknesses that it's like, is that the one that's damning to them because you trust the offense and everything?

4:13I'm still working this out. So this is great to talk it all out. Colts, run game, explosive, awesome passing game, smart defense. I wouldn't say good. I would say a smart and well-coached defense, but the defense is still gettable. Luis Arumado kind of gets that spags bump for me. Once they get to the playoffs, you might be throwing some junk and just really manipulating quarterbacks and everything. So they might be just average right now in the regular season. I like the Sauce Gardner edition. A little pricey though, but I like that edition and it helps out a lot, but I still think this is more like the 14th best defense.

4:45Not like a true, true, real, real contender I can bet on. I like the offense. And also, you've got the pumpkin factor with Daniel Jones. You just do. Of course. I know he's been playing well, but you've got the pumpkin factor. So that's what I had to throw in there. Broncos. I mean, the Chiefs are next in odds. So we're not totally crazy. They're the third favorites right now to win the AFC. Broncos. Amazing defense. Good offense line. Weaknesses. Bo Nix. And in a run game, that's fine, but not good. And that's how I'd put it. Especially with now J.K. Dobbins is out. Ravens. Another team keeping an eye on.

5:19much better about their defense now. Still don't think it's great, but much better. I know a lot of people are noticing Kyle Hamilton, what they're doing. Lamar is Lamar. You can bet on him. But the run game is taking a step back. And Derrick Henry is slower this year. Father time is starting to knock on his door a little bit. I had some miles per hour tracking numbers. It's dropped down. This is all career lows and 50 mile an hour rate, all that stuff. And then the Patriots are the next team. I don't trust the run game. I don't trust the defense That's completely, and now Milton Williams is hurt.

5:49Do you trust Drake May? But if we're looking at true contenders as opposed to a playoff team, as opposed to a playoff team and win one game, a team that can go on the run, I'm still going on the Chiefs. And I'm curious what your thoughts are, but it's just more of a, they're fine enough on defense. They're fine enough on offense. I like the offensive line, actually. They got Mahomes. And I know the pass catchers in the run game isn't perfect, but it's fine enough, you know? And so that's how I just came to this conclusion. I did not think you were going to pick the Chiefs. I was all ready to come in and explain to you and try to convince you why it's the Chiefs.

6:21But since that game yesterday, we're recording this on Monday, and all the narratives that are coming out, and as I was just looking at stuff this morning and thinking about it, I'm like, I'm in on the Chiefs. I think they're going to be fine. I think people are going to feel so stupid that they thought this team was actually going to miss the playoffs. And if you just told me I had to bet my life on one AFC team to make the Super Bowl, I would still pick them. All the narratives that are out there, they are second in EPA per drive. They are third in DVOA. If you want the boomer stats, they're seventh in points per game.

6:53Mahomes is sixth in EPA per pass play. Every offensive metric you look at, and I know it doesn't always look perfect, that's every team in the NFL has games, quarters, possessions, where you're like, oh, you know, it's not always going to be great. They're 0-5 in one score games. They're losing these high leverage moments. They're getting bad breaks. They're getting unlucky. I know that's boring. That's dumb analysis with all the time we spend doing this, but that's my analysis with the 2025 Chiefs. It's nothing more. And I know you don't hang a banner like second in EPA per drive. I know someone's going to say that to me, so I'm getting ahead of it right now.

7:28But the point is down to down, they to me are a top five team in the NFL. And then Nate, let's add in some of the intangible stuff that we see in sports. A team that has that championship DNA with their backs against the wall in a position they've never been in before. I've seen Andy Reid dig out of holes like this before. I'm curious to see Patrick Mahomes, what he looks like over the next six weeks. So I will be shouting from the rooftops until they are mathematically eliminated that they are still the favorites in the AFC. I really have gotten into it. And it's sometimes trying to simplify my own kind of handicapping.

8:08And because I've kind of said this about myself, it's like my dad horse betting. I'm a better handicapper than I am a gambler. Like as far as like, I don't listen to my own advice too much. And I think with the Chiefs is that it's really just getting down to, and maybe this is some NBA analysis with this. Are you a top 10 offense? Are you top 10 defense? Can you run the ball? Can you be an explosive passing game? And can you stop that on defense? While I don't think this Chiefs defense is what it was a couple of years ago when they won the Super Bowl and Spags was having the time of his life with all those DBs and everything.

8:39It's still a good defense. It's 12th-ish, 10th-ish like that. And I think it's going to be on the upswing as they kind of figured out their DBs. I think we see more dime out of them. I think we see some more. I want to rewatch this game because it's only been TV copy for me on rewatch. I haven't done all 22 on it yet. But I want to see kind of like if they did anything outside the buy, that was interesting to me because that's always just the thing is this cheap, the Chiefs, it's you always look at it after their buy week, they start rising and they were already rising before the buy. And so that's why I'm still staying optimistic on it.

9:10The run game is not explosive, but they're so efficient. They get on base. It's the money ball running game. It's like they get on base. That's what they do. So, okay, yes, the deep balls aren't all the way there, but I think that'll even out. I think the defense will keep them in games. It's just one of these things where it's like they don't have that true weakness. They're fine to good in a lot of areas that I think are true contender numbers. So that's why I'm just kind of not out on them yet. I'm with you. If you look at it, I like this site, Impredictable. It looks at just, it ranks every team based on the betting markets.

9:42The Chiefs would be favored over every other team in the NFL right now on a neutral field. They are still number one. Every single one. They're still number one. Wow. Yeah, the Rams are two, I believe here. I have it. Let me see. I have it pulled up. Yeah, Rams are two. Lions are three. Eagles are four. And Bills are five. So it's like, it's not as crazy as it sounds. I understand they're five and five and they're not blowing teams out and the margin for error is slim. It could go wrong. But until I actually see it with my own eyes, I'm still going to... I'm sorry, I'm not going to pick against them against the Colts or the Broncos in a playoff game.

10:16I kind of don't care what happens. I wish I had better analysis, but it's not like... The bottom hasn't fallen out. They've been fine to good and everything. So that's where I'm like, I know it sounds lazy, you and I right now. It's the Chiefs and everything. But it's like, eye testing stats. I don't know. It's how I feel. And it's how, when I watch it, I'm like, it's always a rewatch them and the Packers. When I rewatch them, I'm always like, oh, this is much better than I realized. Like it's there in the moment they're frustrating. All this happens. Then I rewatch them. Like, oh, this is a good team.

10:47Like, this is actually a good team. But yeah, the Chiefs and Packers, I kind of feel the same about in that way. All right. All right. So we're on the same page with the first one. Surprisingly, I did not think that was going to be the case. I'm very surprised. There you go. All right. Next one here. Unanswered question. me. Can the Bears actually win the NFC North? You have been a Caleb Williams guy, right? That's fair to say. You like a Caleb Williams? Right now, the Bears are 7-3 and in first place beat the Vikings in week 11. The Packers are 6-3-1. The Lions are 6-4. This is really like the only division where no team has minus odds.

11:24It's kind of wide open with the Packers, Lions, and the Bears. Bears fans do not like when you point out some of the oh, you know, this probably isn't going to last. I understand it, Bears fans. If I were you, I'd be like, I love my team this year. This is a great team. I love this team. It's a lot of fun. But can they actually win the NFC North? What do you think? Yes, but I'm also going to say no. I think they're a playoff team, but the NFC is freaking gauntlet, and it's tough. I looked at DVOA, too, and just future schedule. They have the sixth-hardest schedule remaining, so that is something that's going to be a part of this.

12:00They have two games against the Packers. They have the Steelers, the Eagles, the 49ers, and Lions. It's actually the hardest according to the betting markets. What you just read it out, that is not easy to finish the season. No, there's no gimmies. There's no backup quarterback there. Oh, you might get Mason Rudolph. But there's no just real actual gimmies there. And you look at the other teams, what they face. The Lions face the Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Bears. And the Packers face the Lions, the Bears twice, twice um Broncos Ravens and then the Vikings twice so a mixed bag there for for the for the Packers there but this gets back into my kind of four units kind of theory uh angle on this I think this offense is a top 10 offense there's no caveat there there is no start point there it's one of the most explosive it was the most explosive offense going in a couple weeks ago it's now the second most explosive offense in the NFL third and rushing seventh and passing It's just the defense.

12:53Even if they've had a lot of DB injuries, they've been stinky against the pass throughout this entire year. But then you kind of, there's nice bones there though. Like Dennis Allen, I think has proven to be a good coach and they're really good on third down. I thought Tom Brady did a nice job of kind of pointing that out. Like, hey, they actually have some cool stuff that they're doing. Just, I don't think they're great against the run. They've gotten better. And I also just think against the pass, like I think at best, this is like the 20th best defense, 18th best defense. And that's just a little worrisome to me that going against that schedule, Packers twice, 49ers, Lions, the Enron offensive Eagles, and then the Steelers.

13:29It's like, it's just not a lot of breaths that they can take. They're not going to face J.J. McCarthy every week. Yeah, the Bears are sort of like, you know, when like a new friend gets introduced to the group and initially you're like, man, this person's kind of annoying. But then after a while, you're like, hey, let's call, let's call him Joe. Hey, call him. Hey, we need a fourth, you know, for God, let's call him. He's kind of cool. That's kind of what my experience has been with the Bears this season. I'm kind of like, I'm not buying this. Their defense stinks. It's all turnovers. Their offense is just so hit or miss.

13:59I'm watching them. One possession, Caleb Williams looks like the best quarterback in the NFL. The next one, he doesn't. I think the run game thing is such a feather in Ben Johnson's cap. It's like, that looked so bad early in the season. And I don't know how many coaches can just sort of fix that in season where, hey, we're going to make a change here on the offensive line. Hey, we still have the same running back, but we're going to mix this other guy in, but we're going to teach it better. You're going to, and all of a sudden it's going to click. And it's like, that's actually what's happened.

14:27That is good coaching. You know, a lot of coaches making excuses. This guy's at, well, this guy's injured. It's like he had issues to work through and he improved the football team. He improved the offense. He put Caleb. I mean, Caleb Williams has like three plays a game where I'm looking up going. That's I, it's already a sack in my head. And then half a second later, he's spinning out of it. I can't believe, I mean, he is, That has been to me like the biggest revelation with Caleb Williams this year is that he's getting sacked. I think it's under 5%. It was 11 % last year. And some of these, you watch him and you go, man, that is like a sack with most quarterbacks in the NFL.

15:04So I don't know if it's his athleticism or what that didn't quite pop off to me like last year. But now when you watch him, you're like, he looks like one of the best athletes at quarterback in the NFL. His balance is where his athleticism shines in his core strength and everything. He's bigger than people realize. He's not very tall, you know, 6 '1 and change, but he's like 230. But he's like a stout dude, and his balance is rare. I'm glad he brought up the sack rate because that's where the time to throw thing with Caleb has gotten blown so out of proportion. He's gotten so much better from the pocket.

15:35He was always better from the pocket than people realized. It was just that he had some, especially throwing over the middle, he'd get a little spooked. And when it wasn't perfectly clean, and now you can see him get so much more comfortable working from the pocket. They did so much under center this week. And they've done a lot of under center this whole year. And Caleb Williams in college is true air raid, dink and donk every which way, never under center. And now he's under center more than like, he's under center more than like golf. Caleb Williams could go on a heater just, you know, the next six weeks and all of a sudden they could win more one score games or they could continue to create turnovers on defense.

16:11These things do happen. It's a small sample sport. I wouldn't pick them. I think I would probably pick the Lions still if I had to pick one team in the NFC North. But as the weeks go on and they keep winning, I think you should just be kind of ecstatic if you're a Bears fan. You know, it's kind of a season where you probably had measured expectations. You were hoping you had something with the coach and the quarterback. And it looks like you do have something with the coach and the quarterback. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I got one more for Nate. Unanswered questions. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.

16:43Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like needing the protection of an offensive guard on the football field, but getting an elementary school crossing guard. Sure, they're both guards, but you can only trust one to keep your quarterback safe when the game is on the line. So don't settle for just any insurance when they're State Farm. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Are you looking for support in your weight management journey? ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. Z-Bound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity, or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.

17:27Z-Bound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, or 15 milligram injection. Z-Bound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it. Or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer, or if you've had multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.

18:05Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. Tell your doctor if you experience vision changes before scheduled procedures with anesthesia, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounds.lily.com. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. It's a sensitive one, Nate. All right, tread lightly, okay?

18:43Because in my experience, you know, the fan base that has the young quarterback who they're invested in, who they're not sure about, that is kind of the peak of sensitivity among NFL fan bases. So just, all right, so unanswered questions, Nate. How should Vikings fans feel about how things are going with J.J. McCarthy? I'm giving the caveat for you. It's only been five games. We understand he's young. The NFL is hard. No one's writing the book on J.J. McCarthy. But from what we've seen now, Vikings fans, how should they feel about how this thing is going? Not great. Probably. And I try to be such a silver linings guy with quarterbacks.

19:30Even when like Justin Fields was struggling, I'm like, hey, he can run though. He can run. You know, I try to find these angles and with McCarthy, it's just, it hasn't been good. It's been all, it's, it's, it's not just in a physical sense or just in, it is in a physical sense, but it's also just in a mental sense. He, the game looks really fast for him right now. And that's why you see when they get off those opening script plays that all of a sudden the sprays start happening. That it just feels like everything's tight. It feels like the ball is going into harm's way. And that's because I just think mentally, he's a guy that we all knew needed reps.

20:05And it's just very apparent when you watch him. It's not just like he needed reps. It's like, oh man, but he needs reps in practice, not just game reps. Like that's what it's appearing to me because it just seems like there's a lot of struggles with even operating the offense on time. If you notice in that game, in any game that watching the Vikings right now, a lot of batted passes at the line of scrimmage and then just a lot of PBUs. the defenders making plays on the ball. And this kind of leads into everything and all the issues right now is that he's kind of a step slow. There's always, you got to watch with the young quarterbacks is listening to their feet.

20:39If there's that extra hitch and then the ball gets batted or something weird happens, that means the quarterback's late. And that sometimes some quarterbacks have an extra hitch as just part of their flow, but they can overcome it because they have an awesome arm or because they're so quick in that drop, they can get away with that extra hitch. Yada, yada, yada. There's different ways that you can get away with it. watch Drake May he's this is what some people knock Drake May for it was like no that's his rhythm is that he'll take that extra little kind of crow hop but the ball's out early so who cares and on time so who cares trust me I I can't wait I'm just gonna talk crap about Drake May for the rest of my life because I was going crazy during that whole experience you were all in yeah yeah but with McCarthy it's he'll take the extra extra hitch extra hitch and then you see the ball just flying out and it's a 110 mile an hour fastball because he feels late.

21:27He's taking the extra hitch and then his whole body is listening to his feet. His feet are going, you're late. So what do you do when you feel like you're late? What you should do is check it down. But what he does is, well, that's where I'm going with the ball. Here we go. I got to throw it as hard as I can. And then when you do that naturally, unless you kind of have more reps and learn how to learn your body, learn your mind is you over stride. And it's just, you know, human physics, You're clenching the ball hard. You're striding real hard. You're trying to throw real hard like a pitcher. And that's why you see the ball spraying up.

21:57He misses high. And that usually means over striding shoulder comes up. And I'm bringing all this up because it just, to me that he's a step slow mentally. And because he's a step slow mentally, then all everything else physically ends up slow, ends up just being sped up and ends up just being sprays and missed throws and batted balls and just not a lot of balls in play that they even have a chance on. Yeah. And really just numbers wise, throwing outside of numbers, he's really struggling with this. And really he's struggled since college throwing to his left. And that again is a mechanical thing.

22:29That is something again, overstriding can lead to this. And in college, I wrote this up and you can go look it on Yahoo. His completion percentage when he was throwing to his left, I looked at 10 yards or more. So that's like really driving a throw. It went from 56 % completion percentage to his right to 42 % throwing to his left in college. Wow. So just a completion percentage, we can get a drop back success rate, went from 56 % to also 42%. And then first downs went from 53 % to 39%. And then I looked it up and this is just eye testing. Like, yeah, he's worse throwing left. But just looking at numbers this year, he has a 51.6 % completion throwing outside the numbers to the left.

23:07So when he has the push ball left, there's no air yards there, just throwing to the left. The league average is 65%. So he throws at 51%, which ranks 36th. League average, 65%. Throwing right, 62%. League average is 66%. So league average is about the same, both sides, throwing outside numbers. So it's slightly worse left. His is drastically worse. And that is, to me, mechanical. And even when I wrote him in college was that maybe he's athletic enough to overcome that. He gets good coaching to overcome that. He needs time. But to me, it's like, oh, wow, that hasn't improved at all. And I know that he hasn't played a lot of games.