Week 11 True or False: Broncos Are Contenders, Chiefs Are in Trouble, and Separation in the NFC!

0:00Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we're playing a little true or false from week 11. I've got three statements and we'll decide whether we believe them. It was a fun set of games. Broncos taking control of the AFC West with a huge win over the Chiefs. Are they legit contenders? Are the Chiefs actually in danger of missing the playoffs? And then in the NFC, big wins for the Rams and the Eagles. How concerned should you be about the Seahawks and Lions losing those games? To talk about it all, we've got my friend from the Ringer, Deontay Lee. Let's take a break.

0:39Diante Lee:We come back. We play a little true or false from Week 11. This is the Ringer NFL Show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel is coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

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2:09Diante Lee:All right, we are back with Deontay Lee. We're playing a little true or false. Here we go, Deontay. First thing, true or false, the Broncos are actual contenders, actual contenders in the AFC. And you know what? I'm taking this one first. I got to wave the white flag. I don't have a white flag. My sweatshirt's kind of white. I'm not taking this off and waving it. That's not happening for social or any other purposes. But for the first time all year, I think this is actually true. I think any team that has a chance to be the one seat in their conference can make the Super Bowl. And I think one of the lessons here from Week 11 is that there are no real haves and have-nots in the AFC.

2:50Diante Lee:Everyone's just kind of bunched together. and I don't think the spread on any of these playoff games is going to be that big once we get there. And the Broncos are right in the mix. So I've been skeptical of them all year. I thought they were a good team. I didn't think they were a great team. I didn't think they were going to win the division over the Chiefs. But this is what Sean Payton was hired to do. And they showed with that win today against Kansas City. I mean, they are, you know, three and a half games ahead of the Chiefs now. In the AFC West, they are easily the favorite. So he talked a big game in August.

3:22Diante Lee:I made fun of him. I said, settle down, Sean Payton. And now here I am after week 11. I was wrong. The Broncos are contenders in the AFC. True or false for you with that statement? I'd say true, but it's so tricky because I don't want to say true because of today. Right? Like I'm not the one game sample guy. So I think that's probably the thing that hangs me up most. Right? And I think if you're looking at the leaderboard in the AFC now, it would be really hard to say that you feel more certain about Indianapolis, New England, or Buffalo than you do Denver, if we're just judging off of resumes.

4:00Because the one thing that Denver can say that a lot of those teams cannot is that they've played other contenders. They've played other playoff-quality teams and have played them close, if not beaten them outright. I think that my hang-up is that you're making that case based off of 10 quarters, not 10 games, in my opinion. Right. So if we give them credit and this probably has more to do with the offense and the defense. Yeah. If we give them credit for all 60 minutes of this Chiefs game. And I do think this was a well-designed game plan. I thought Bo Nix took the chances that he needed to on early downs.

4:31This is one of his better first down success rates on dropbacks this season. And it definitely was reflected in that. Then we're talking about the second half against the Giants. You're talking about the second and third quarter against the Colts. Right. Where he looked kind of decent in the fourth quarter was all over the place. Then you've got the fourth quarter against the Texans and the fourth quarter against the Eagles, right? Like those are like the 10 quarters. I think if you're a Broncos fan, you're looking at that cluster and saying, when we're that on offense, we are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

4:58The issue was that when Nix is not in that place in the passing game, when the passing game does not have that level of rhythm, when he's creating his own pressure, when he's not scrambling, when he's rolling out and not pushing the ball downfield, it's hard to envision that. you would have to feel like Sean Payton is just going to put his deep throws on Sunday on a loop in film every day and remind Bo Nix like one-on-one you have to do this or our offense doesn't work. Play action you got to take them chances or the offense doesn't work. If he does that then yes they're contenders if not it's just hard to imagine that this defense can do enough to lift them all the way through.

5:36Diante Lee:Is there a case that there's a parallel between the 2025 Broncos and the 2024 Eagles in some ways. Let me make the case. They don't have the offensive firepower. They don't have the same players on offense. However, they do have a better offensive coach than anybody the Eagles had last year. So in a one-game playoff situation, they have a guy who can scheme things up. Defensively, they're playing like a top-five defense. I think they're going to be in that mix from now till whenever their season ends. They show up pretty much every week. I mean, I thought Deontay, the last four or five minutes of that game, It's 19-19.

6:12Diante Lee:Chiefs have the ball. I'm thinking Chiefs are going to score, and then we'll see what the Broncos do when they get the ball back. I thought they were at least going to get a field goal. Broncos defense forces a three and out. They sack Mahomes on third down. They get the ball back. They're facing a third and 15. Now I'm going, oh, Mahomes is going to get it back, and they're going to score. Bo Nix finds Cortland Sutton for 20 yards. He converts a third and five later. He completes a pass to Troy Franklin for 32 yards. So the parallel to me is that I think the defense is showing up pretty much every week.

6:42Diante Lee:I think the quarterback might have some ups and downs, but in some of these big spots, he is making some big throws. And is there a case that once we get to the playoffs, like are there games inside of Bo Nix where all of a sudden we can say, hey, he did get hot for a month here. And all of a sudden the Broncos are in the Super Bowl. I think you can make the case that they're very similar to the 2024 Eagles. I think that the caveat would have to be is that a team like the 2024 Eagles does not just win the Super Bowl every year. Right. A team that has those level of offensive struggles throughout the regular season doesn't usually flip a switch and turn into an explosive play machine in the run and passing game.

7:20And I think that maybe the strongest case, if you wanted to believe that what you're seeing from the 2025 Broncos is the same thing as what you saw from the 2024 Eagles. It's not just the defense. It's the offensive line. Right now, Denver is sixth in the NFL in yards before contact on rushes, and they have the fifth lowest pressure dropbacks per game. That is all offensive line stuff, right? And if you believe that the health of this offense is based more on what they can do on early downs in the run game and keeping Bo Nix clean in the pocket, then yeah, that is very similar to what Philadelphia's recipe was last season.

7:53And as long as you're not turning the ball over, as long as you're not taking back breaking sacks and you genuinely trust your defense to do one of the hardest things to do, right? Which is to basically never give up explosive plays and also get after the quarterback all the time and create a bunch of havoc in the backfield. It is one of the hardest threads to needle. So hardest needles to thread in the NFL. If you believe that they can maintain that, then sure, I'm with you. The issue for me just continues to come back to that is a high degree of difficulty to live with. I think in a lot of ways, this is like a college football resume thing, right?

8:27Like if we were doing the college football committee and we were trying to rank playoff teams in that way, Denver might be first because you would look at their resume and say they beat last year's champions. They've beaten some of the better teams in the AFC. They played Indianapolis down to the last snap, basically, right? Like this is a team that looks like a championship level team. Beating Kansas City when you know Kansas City is desperate. when they go up 19-16 in the fourth quarter. Like you said, I'm feeling the same way as you watching TV. Like, oh, there's a Travis Kelsey touchdown. They're going to come out, shut down Bo Nix, get the ball.

8:59They're going to sit on the ball for the next four and a half minutes. By the time Denver gets it back, there's not going to be any time to go tie or take the lead. And that's just not how it played out. Maybe this team just is turning a corner and I'm just going to be the last one to the party. I'm just a little hung up still that we have not seen anything as emphatic from Denver as what we've seen from Indianapolis and the AFC.

9:18Diante Lee:Yeah, I thought I was the last one to the party. Honestly, I was holding out and holding out and holding out. I think it's a meaningful win. I'm with you. You don't want to put too much. And we always look back and say it was only one game. That's a meaningful win in a big spot. The Chiefs are 5-4, like you said, defending AFC champs the last three years. Need this game badly. You don't have Pat Sertan. It's close in the fourth quarter. And they outplayed him in the fourth quarter. It wasn't fluky. It wasn't, oh, Mahomes had a weird fumble or something like that. It was like they outplayed them in the fourth quarter.

9:49Diante Lee:They deserve credit. You know, I was just looking this up as you were talking because I was wondering, like, they are consistently competitive. Like, this was one of my favorite traits of those Pete Carroll Seahawks teams. Not only were they blowing teams, but it was just like, you weren't going to blow them out. The last two years here, Deontay, in the regular season, do you know how many games they've lost by more than a touchdown? I'd have to guess it's like five, five or six. One. one game in the last two years with Bo Nix in year one and two, they've lost by more than a touchdown. That was week nine last year against the Baltimore Ravens.

10:23Diante Lee:I mean, that's a Sean Payton stat. That's a Sean Payton stat. Listen, he's the most, he may be the most arrogant man in the NFL. I've said it before, but I don't dispute that he's one of the best coaches of my lifetime. Honestly, this is, this is so impressive what he has done. Drafting a rookie quarterback, everyone, I made fun of him for that backpack story. or whatever. He looked at his back. And now here he is, two in his second year with this guy who's not like an all pro. It's not like, you know, and he is in position to dethrone Andy Reid, healthy Patrick Mahomes, Spags in the AFC West.

11:01Diante Lee:Hats off to you, Sean Payne. I got nothing else to say. Let's see how the rest of the season unfolds. But you talk the talk in August and you're walking the walk right now. So big, big day for the Denver Broncos. Now we get to the other team in that mix, Deontay. I'll let you start with this one because you were so brazen as to come on this podcast last week and say, you know what? What if the Chiefs don't make the playoffs and the Jaguars make the playoffs instead of them? So I ask you now, after they've lost another game, true or false, the Chiefs are in actual danger of missing the playoffs.

11:37It has to be mathematic. It was true mathematically last week. It's even more true now. Not mathematically. What's in your heart, Deontay? In my heart of hearts, I genuinely believe that they should not be sleeping very well on the plane back to Kansas City, right? You should be feeling like we have just burned up all of our margin for error. Losing to Buffalo and losing to Denver has now set us back and really losing to Jacksonville. I think that's the game that they are going to be kicking themselves over for the rest of the season. Basically, no matter how the seeding plays out, they are going to be kicking themselves themselves over those three games the rest of the way, because now you've basically backed yourself into a corner where you kind of have to beat Indianapolis next week and you're getting them off a buy.

12:20You're going to be desperate. This team has been rolling offensively and they just made an addition of cornerbacks. Even if you have some quibbles and I did about the deal to get a guy like sauce Gardner, if you're looking at where Indianapolis is positioned, they might've just gotten the missing piece to be the AFC champions this year. And for Indianapolis, I mean, not for Indianapolis, for Kansas City, you're in a position you never want to be in as a team that wants to contend. And that's being in a do or die situation before we even get to Thanksgiving weekend. Right. That's just not where you want to be.

12:51If they lose to Indy, you basically can't lose another game the rest of the way out. If you're just looking at the tiebreakers and the seedings, right, you can't afford to lose to the Chargers again. You can't afford to lose to Denver again. And if they lose to Houston, that's another team that's similarly around 500 and is going to be vying probably for the seven seed in the AFC. They don't have any wiggle room. Their best bet right now is that you win enough games to where it comes down to the tie break between you and Baltimore. Right. Let's say Pittsburgh ends up winning the AFC North and I was between you and Baltimore for the seven seed in the AFC.

13:23And you get that tie break because you won that game head to head. It's really hard to paint a window into the playoffs for this team outside of that. And that's just not a place that I ever imagined we'd be talking about with Kansas City, especially coming off of that three week stretch where it looked like the offense was back to 2021, 2022, 2023 levels. Right. And now we're not there anymore. And now they have got to be basically perfect the rest of the way. And I don't know how to kind of sort that out in my head because that's just not where I thought Kansas City would be at all this year.

13:54Diante Lee:My mind will not let me get there. This is false. They are not in danger of missing the playoffs. They're going to go on a run. They're going to be okay. But man, the standings page is making me... It's like you have to be fresh. Am I looking at this? They are ninth in the AFC right now. They would be out of the playoffs if the season started today. They are five and five. You mentioned the Texans. The Texans are five and five. So like you said, that's a big game that they'll have to win against them. The big point there is the Jaguars, which you made last week, and I refuse to believe you, but the Jaguars are 6-4.

14:28Diante Lee:The Chiefs are 5-5, but the Jaguars own the tiebreak there. So you can't, if you tie with the Jaguars, you're out of there. I still think they're going to go on a run. I honestly think if you took this team and they played last year's team, I think this team beats last year's team. So, and last year's team was 15-2 and made it to the playoffs. I mean, it's unreal. Let's give our friend Bill Barnwell a shout out because he was doing the one-score game thing way before anyone I could remember. And last year, the Chiefs are 10-0 in one-score games. Literally one of the luckiest teams of whatever the last decade, two decades.

15:09Diante Lee:And this year, they are 0-5. Like as the most unlucky team in the NFL this year is the Kansas City Chiefs at 0-5. The tiebreakers are not great for them. I was, you know, watching that game, especially in the first half. I'm like, the offense is like, they're doing some stuff. They're missing some shots downfield, but you're taking them. You have opportunities. There's some missed throws. There's some drops in there. I didn't feel like this was the old Chiefs offense that we talked about last year where you're like, man, they're just stuck in mud. They don't have it. So I still think they have it.

15:41Diante Lee:But your point's well taken. The margin for error is very slim with some difficult games upcoming where if you have a game where you know what? A couple calls don't go your way. Or you have a muffed punt. Exactly. Or you have a box snap. You get a Rasheed Rice fumble, something like that. Those games that happen in the NFL, if you have one of those games at an inopportune time, all of a sudden, I might be going to the dark side with Deontay and coming on here one Sunday night and say, I actually don't think they're going to make the playoffs. I'm not there yet. I think they're going to be okay.

16:16Diante Lee:I actually am not that discouraged by their offense. And I think they're going to win a lot of these big games and finish with 10 or 11 wins, sneak into the playoffs as a wild card. And then who knows? We might be picking them to get to the Super Bowl if they get to that point. The Chiefs recorded the documentary a year too early. This is the doc I want. It's the dynasty team on the ropes in the regular season. That's the story I want told. I'm with you. That's exciting. It actually is legitimately exciting just as a fan or an analyst to have this quarterback, this coach, not in the playoffs as of mid-November.

16:56Diante Lee:and what do you got inside of you? You know, this is different than a playoff run. This is a backs against the wall. It's week after week after week after week. Now you have to do it. I'm not counting them out. You're right. This has now become maybe the most intriguing story in the NFL is, wait a minute. Are they actually going to miss the playoffs with Mahomes healthy? Like I said, Andy Reid, Spags, a better supporting cast than last year. Or is this, are we going to look up five, six weeks from now and go, Okay. That's just another chapter. And now let's see what happens in the playoffs. So they're minus 220, Deontay, to make the playoffs.

17:32Diante Lee:So Vandal's telling us they're still like it. But those division odds flip. So things can flip pretty quickly in a week here. So there is a lot of football left. But I think your point is the main one. The margin for error is very slim. Where one week where things don't go your way in this very weird sport, all of a sudden you're looking up and going, But man, I can't believe the season went that way. All right, let's take a break. We come back and we move over to the NFC. The Ringer NFL Show is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel is changing the way you live bet football and it starts with Next Drive SGPs.

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19:31Diante Lee:All right, next question. Deontay, true or false? The NFC representative in the Super Bowl is more likely to come from Eagles-Lions than Seahawks-Rams. So we had these two matchups today, Eagles-Lions, Sunday Night Football, Seahawks-Rams in the late window. And I think it's true. If you told me, who do you want, Eagles-Lions or Seahawks-Rams, I would take Eagles-Lions. Let's just start there. Are you a true or a false here? And then we can get into the storylines. I'm true. I walked away from Sunday Night Football feeling like one of those two teams will more than likely be the representative in the NFC.

20:10I think that's not to take anything away from Los Angeles. this is maybe more of a reflection on Seattle's quarterback. That's where we got to start.

20:16Diante Lee:That's where we got to start. Yeah. It's kind of hard to look away from what we saw on Sunday. And yeah, I think that, you know, we can talk about the four interceptions all kind of individually, right? They're all emblematic though, of the same Sam Darnold problems that we've been having throughout his career. Right. And he's a very unique case as a quarterback. There are guys who are pressured and they take a bunch of sacks. There are guys who get pressured and maybe they throw the ball away a bunch. To me, the biggest issue with Sam Darnold is never the throw that he makes. It's rarely the throw that he makes.

20:50It's the ones that he won't. And what I mean by that are the checkdowns he won't take when he's pressured. And that's where he makes plays worse for himself. And this existed in Minnesota. We were never coming on to the podcast saying, man, Sam Darnold missed that deep in-breaker over the middle to Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison. Oh, he missed a shot to Jalen Naylor one-on-one out on the perimeter. He can make those throws all game long. That's a big reason why Jackson Smith and Jigba looks like this supernova wide receiver. It's because he knows how to get the ball downfield. It's what kind of quarterback are you when pressure is closing in, when pictures are changing on the back end, when you should not try to fit the ball into a tight window.

21:29He has not had a change up throughout his career. And I think that Los Angeles did an excellent job of saying, if we sit in the seams, we We can play more. We can probably live in one on one on the perimeter, but we're going to sit on the seams, not allow you to get those deep in breakers, not allow you to get those timing throws in the intermediate area of the field. And we're going to bet that we're going to get home to you before you decide to check the ball down. And they were right time and time again in this game. And that's really what led to those turnovers and why Seattle didn't win in spite of their defense, basically spending a masterpiece being minus four in the turnover category.

22:03That was an intriguing game for me, but I think it was a lot of confirmation that Seattle is maybe not offensively in the exact same class from a playoff perspective as the Rams, as the Lions, and as the Eagles based off of what we've seen.

22:17Diante Lee:So it goes back to what you said in the beginning about the one game sample thing in a way, because a reasonable person can make the argument that they outgained the Rams 414 to 249. The Seahawks had 26 first downs. The Rams had 12. Even with four turnovers, the Seahawks had a chance to kick a field goal at the end to win the game. A reasonable person could say they meet again later this season in the playoffs. absolutely the Seahawks can win that game. But you know what? We have a history with this quarterback not going too far back to last year, like you mentioned. And the biggest thing you were worried about as a Seahawks fan was, is Sam Darnold going to turn into a pumpkin in one of these big games?