An Insider's Prediction for Trump's Unexpected Moves in His Final Term | Sean Spicer

0:00Hey, Chicagoland! The Wayfair store is in your neighborhood at Edens Plaza in Wilmette. Finally, you can feel the fabric, sit on the sectionals, and even open the refrigerators. Plus, our in-store designers will help you bring it all together with free one-on-one design support for any project on any budget. Yep, we said free. Oh, and did we mention the cafe? So what are you waiting for? Come see all that's in store. Visit the Wayfair store today at Edens Plaza in Wilmette. Way fair, every style, every home So I think there's two parts to this One is, I have made a strong There's three parts One is, I've made a strong case that Trump needs to codify a lot of this stuff What has been done by executive order can be undone by executive order They codified some things in the Big Beautiful Bill but they need to lock in a lot of these wins so they can't be undone That's number one Number two, on a personal level If you have screwed Trump over in the final two years Katie barred the door, baby, because he's coming.

0:57And then number three is I think that there's got to be an aspect and a transition to what comes next. And I believe that right now that's J.D. Vance's to lose.

1:14I'm Dave Rubin and joining me today is former White House press secretary, now turned podcaster extraordinaire and author of the new bestselling book, Trump 2.0. the revolution that will permanently transform America. My friend, Sean Spicer, welcome back to the Ruby Report. Great to be with you. It is nice to be with you. And I must say, my friend, in an age of panicans and in an age of doom sloppers and terrible maxers and all the rest of it, your book is rather refreshing because it gets to the core of what I've been trying to explain to people, which I actually think most of America and certainly most of MAGA understands.

1:54which is that Trump is doing a lot of good stuff. And some of it takes a little time and some of it's unorthodox. But the basic premise for the book is that this was the plan, in essence. Maybe it was slightly delayed, but he's doing the things he set out to do. So maybe why don't we start by rewinding. For the period, the rather short period that you were press secretary, did you think he had the plan? because you kind of get into when you think it sort of came together. I think that there's a big difference between the approach in Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0. He had a plan, but he didn't necessarily understand all of the players on the field and all the assets.

2:41And the point that I make in Trump 2.0 is that when he had four years out of office and the pace that you're going at at the White House, it's just like day, day, day, day, day, day, boom, boom, boom. You never have time to think. And and so when he had four years out of office, he said, well, if I get back, here's how I'm going to do this differently, more effectively. Here's who could be better on my team. Who's who's not. It's like having a, you know, the time in offseason that a team has. We need a new pitcher. We need a new catcher. We need to have some new plays. they had time to think and i i the basic premise of trump 2.0 is to make the point that so many of the things that are happening could not have happened had they not had a pause to say how do we do this better more effectively and it's not one's good or one's bad in trump 1.0 i think we did some pretty historic things but to be blunt we were flying you know by the seat of our pants most days and i kind of make the point through the book all these different things.

3:41Maha never would exist without Trump 2.0. The tariff structure, how he's approaching NATO. I posted some photos the other day. I mean, when we went to Brussels in Trump 1.0, it was like, are you going to reaffirm the Article 5 commitment? Now he's like, hey, screw you. Pay up. But he would have never had time to think. And so it's not, I spoke to the president about this, and I was like, we're not trying to say one's good or one's bad. It's just, You finally like all this the stuff about the reflecting pool and the fountains and the decorating the Oval Office. You would have never had time to say, hey, if I get a second shot at this, how will I do this differently?

4:22How much of the sort of leveled up Trump now is purely on the staffing side in that he has people who are. Well, you just mentioned Maha. You know, he was able to bring in this wide tent, Tulsi, who's just stepped away. But this group of people that you would have never thought would have been there then have become part of this thing. So how much of it is just purely a staffing issue and a wide tent variety of ideas, that kind of thing? Great question. It's a huge part. I mean, I go through this. Let me just throw a couple. I mean, you mentioned HHS. Do you think in Trump 1.0 we would ever brought a pro-choice Democrat in to lead HHS?

5:02No, never. Of course. No, never. And think about, like, I use this example. Do you realize that when we chose Jim Mattis to be defense secretary, he had known President Trump for approximately one hour. Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, knew him for about an hour, right? Those are people that you contrast them now. Like, think about even my successor, Caroline Leavitt. She was in Trump 1.0. She was on the campaign. Susie Wiles, known him 11 years. Stephen Chung, the comms director. He was on the campaign in 2015, there in 2016, worked with him. I mean, I knew Trump pretty well, but not like we weren't besties.

5:41And it's just the relationship, so many of these key positions, the contrast between the relationship and the understanding of the agenda. And I mean, we had guys, Dave writing, you remember this, anonymous, like in the New York Times about how like I get to go to senior staff things and then I subvert the will of the American people. Now everybody gets the joke. You're there to advance. I always tell people I love watching cabinet meetings. It's like you can't hide. It's a report card. You know, he's like, Lee Zeldin, what are we doing on the EPA? And you don't get to go like ass. Like, whereas, you know, last time it just there's a much different sense of the people are on the team and rowing in the right direction.

6:25Do you know if there was ever a moment after the loss that he thought of not getting back involved? Because people don't really remember. There was a period where his stock did kind of drop. A lot of people thought it was time to move on. As you know, I supported DeSantis in the primary. I'm thrilled that Trump is the president. I'm thrilled that DeSantis is the gov. But there was a period where it was like, oh, maybe he should move on or he can't do it again. Or he'll never. My main concern, and you just sort of addressed this, was that he would never get the right people around him. And he completely proved me wrong on that.

6:58I have no problem admitting it. It's a really good question. And I'll tell you why, because I don't think Donald Trump will ever admit something like that. So you'll never know. I mean, I can tell you what I think, which is I do think that he questioned whether or not to run again and whether there would be the support. And slowly that sort of materialized the indictment and the raid are what sealed it. And people were like, oh, my God, they really are coming after this guy. But absent that, I don't know. Maybe that maybe that was the straw that broke the camel's back. And it kind of got a lot of people on the MAGA side to go, holy smokes.

7:35But I think it's a great question. And it's something that's very similar to, you know, during the 2015 campaign, people would say all the time, do you guys really think he can win? And I'm one of these guys like I buy a lottery ticket, Dave, and think I'm going to win. Like that's just I'm not kidding. I buy when I go to Cumberland Farms on the street here and I buy the ticket. I'm always like, what will I spend that money on? So that's my just my head. But when you when people ask you, did Trump, I think he thought he would win. But he won't ever admit that he didn't think so. And I don't know that he'd ever admit that he didn't want to run again, but I think it's a fascinating question.

8:09And I do think the indictments and the raid sealed the deal. Yeah, so that's actually what I was going to ask you next. In some sense, you feel like they pushed him into it, that had that not happened, he might have, again, I know he won't admit it, but he might have just kind of gone off into the pasture and let it be. But they kind of pushed him back in. The more I try to get out, the more they suck me back in. Exactly. This is very Godfather. I think that what, if anything, maybe he thought all along he would do it, but I think what it did do is reveal the deep breath and depth of support that still existed and that was willing to fight for him.

8:49So maybe it pushed him over the top. Maybe it reinforced a thought. Again, I don't know. But I will say that for a lot of us, when we saw what was happening, it was like, oh, my God, this is real. Like these guys literally are weaponizing things to go after the guy. Okay. So let's talk about the second term, what he's done and what you think he wants to do. So first off, you know, we're a year and a half in basically to term two. At the end, I think we should talk a little bit about the midterms because if they don't go well, he basically has five months left, which would be, I think, just a disaster for the country.

9:24But how would you grade what he's done so far? And does it all sort of jive with where you thought we would be at at this point? You take that in reverse order. I think we're much further ahead than we ever than I ever fathomed. I think, to be honest with you, the biggest issue that I think this administration faces is the dog has caught the car in a lot of cases. So border security, massive. The president has without, I mean, like, love him or hate him, that guy did exactly what he said he was going to do. That border is sealed. Border sealed. And it was a major issue. And the problem in politics, frankly, is sometimes when you solve somebody's problem, they go, all right, what's next?

10:03What do you got for me? They don't give you the credit you deserve. What the president did to secure our nation and seal our border, it's amazing. And frankly, I think my biggest gripe is they need to go out and sell it more. Big, beautiful bill. No tax on tip, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security. Again, I think Trump accounts, I don't think people fully appreciate how revolutionary these Trump accounts are going to be. The ability for younger Americans to create generational wealth in a way that has never been done. I went to the launch of them and I'm not a big, like that's not my thing.

10:35Like I'm not a financial wizard. And I was like, I get this and this is massive. And what I love about it is there's no government involved, meaning it's not like Social Security where you're basically stealing people's money and then putting it in a trust fund. with an IOU. This is real. I look at what he's done with NATO to level the playing field, what he's done with trade. Maha, again, I think I cannot tell you, I have become the biggest Maha convert and fan as somebody who's dealt with health issues and wellness issues my whole life to finally be like, oh my God, like it's the government that's been lying the whole time.

11:07I think the president deserves so much credit and Bobby Kennedy in particular for what they've done to create transparency in our health and wellness space. We will be a better, healthier country and people and society because of what they've done, not to mandate things. And that's the big difference between what some people in the past have tried to do, but to create transparency and awareness as to what the government's doing and what big food, big ag, big pharma are doing. So I think that they have done unbelievably more than I ever thought. And then, again, you look at culturally. This is something, and I know you're wheelhouse big.

11:45I've been a big fan of your book and your evolution and your story. But like what the president in the first term did was basically say, I'm going to leave culture alone. He never went to the Kennedy Center once. Never went, never had the reception for the Kennedy Center honors. Right. And I say all this because this time he was like, you know what? I'm going to like MC the Kennedy Center honors. I'm going to get involved and name myself on the board. But the idea of looking at culture— Bill Barr is about to get the Kennedy Center Award, and they've had a very complex relationship, to say the least.

12:20My whole point in this is that the idea— I know it's not a big thing, the aesthetic aspects of this, but the idea that you're taking on fountains and beautifying D.C. may seem simplistic. But the idea of this president saying, I'm going to take on these tasks and make the country beautiful and take on America too. I actually am in awe of it, to be honest with you. And where do you think the war shakes out on this? So let me just back up on a second. One of the things that's interesting is when people ask me about what's going on in Iran and the war, I say to them very simply, you do realize there is no political upside to going to war.

13:02None. Like, no one's going to go, thank God we went to war. Right. Short of the regime maybe just collapsing in a day. If the regime falls and we get to make it a 51st state, no one will give him credit. Meaning there's no political – he did it because – and this is the important thing. There was only political downside, which we're seeing a lot of. President Trump, I think, acted in Iran because he was in the best interest of keeping America safe. He understood that they posed an existential threat to our safety, to the region's safety, to Israel's safety. And he did the right thing. and we will be a safer country and a safer world because of his actions.

13:40And why I say the beginning part, Dave, is because he didn't do it for politics. He didn't do it to say, God, my poll numbers will go up. I'll get some political benefit. He did it because it was the right thing. That all being said, if we can get some kind of deal and get us being safer, then that's good, right? But then if the strait can get open, more commercial vessels start flowing and gas prices just continue to go down. They went down 14 cents in the last week. Politically, I think we will do fine in the midterms. And that's what matters. Because as you point out, if you saw Trump 1.0, the movie, you'll see that Democrats take over.

14:19It becomes impeachment and investigation season. Yeah, I mean, so that's what I've been saying on the show, that if the Democrats take over, it's over. That the next day, everyone, every sane American will go, oh man, we really dropped the ball on that one because it's not just that they'll impeach him. It's that every Republican will then see blood in the water and start going after him and trying to hollow out the carcass and everything else. So you do feel a little more positive about the midterms? Because I kind of do, and I know that's very much an outlier position right now. This is a card I keep at my desk every day.

14:55These are the nine Senate races, okay? Republicans, there are nine competitive Senate races. Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas. Those are Republican current incumbent holds or open Republican side. And then three Dems, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Michigan. There are nine Senate races. We have a 53-seat majority, technically a fourth because if it's a tie, J.D. Vance brings it. Democrats have to have three that they have to hold, and Republicans have the additional six. If you go through them right now, they can't win. Okay? And I just take that. I mean, like, go through each one of these.

15:30Right. And hopefully Plattner implodes. All I'll tell you is I think there's a scenario where Republicans pick up a seat in Michigan if El Saeed is the thing. But also there's a potential they could lose one or two in any of those cases. They still maintain a majority. So that's good. You get that. So that's that's Senate side, but that's a little cleaner. Right. Right. So that that's but that's huge because, you know, that that's your nominations. Then you go to the House side to seat majority. currently. We've picked up about 12 seats net in redistricting. We've got an 800 to 200 million dollar advantage in money.

16:03And when you're spreading 800 million dollars, I mean, I honestly, when I was at the RNC for six years going into an election season, if we had 50, 60 million in the bank, that was a big year. Right now, the Republican side, Super PAC, NRCC, RNC combined are about 850, right? Dems all in are at about 220. So that amount of money spread around 25, 30 districts, right? So right now, when you look at, again, the House 218 to take the majority, I think conservatively, by my math, I got Republicans at about 212. Some handicappers have it higher, closer to 215. Some have it down as low as 207. I've got us at about 212 solid seats.

16:46That's six short of the majority. There's 16 to 18 toss up seats. Again, do the math. Republicans need to pick up six of the on a conservative side, 16 competitive seats. That's about a third. So I think that Republicans have a very decent chance of maintaining the majority in the House. It's not going to be pretty. It's not going to be easy. But I don't think it's not what the pundits are doing. When you hear a pundit say, historically speaking, that may be the biggest stupid thing. It's like saying, well, on the third, every three Tuesdays, it rains. There's nothing based in fact in that. And so again, I actually go race by race, look at them, analyze them, and my numbers match.

17:28I mean, again, there's three or four prognosticators, the Cook, Port, Inside Elections. I think Larry Sabato is a joke, but whatever. But again, I'm right in there with them all. And if you do the math, again, And low end, 211. Republicans take high end, about 215. So they need anywhere between seven and three seats to keep the majority. That's not tough. I love that you carry that with you. And I have a chart, I just scribble on things mostly. So that's very impressive. I like that. And I like that you broke it down granularly. You know, I do often say on the show, because it is a fact that 70 % of the time the incumbent president's party loses in the midterms, but I kind of leave it at that.

18:05I get your point. Right, but you know what? In and of itself, it doesn't prove anything, right? Right. I ran the incumbent protection area at the NRCC in 2000 where we picked up seats when President Bush was in office. So I've actually done that job, and I know what it's like. And part of it is having the incumbents, the guys that are currently in office, have the financial resources and the mechanics to run a campaign. So, again, you look at a seat like Mike Lawler in New York, great campaign. He's running really well. He's raised a ton of money. His opponent's a joke. So there's another one of those swing seats that I think will maintain because Mike's a great candidate and his opponent's a joke.

18:43So what the problem is, is that unless you want to go through that, which most of these people on cable news don't, then you're not going to see the math that actually matters to maintain a majority. Let me ask you this. Do you think it also helps? Because I made an argument on the show over the last couple of days that watching the L.A. mayoral race, which now goes to the runoff and the gubernatorial race going to runoff. I think that really helps Trump no matter what, because it keeps the focus on the crazy lefties. It keeps the focus on Spencer Pratt, kind of sane, crazy lefty policies, homeless drug use, blah, blah, blah.

19:16And Steve Hilton, basically kind of sane, extremely well spoken, nice accent. And it's not that Becerra is such a lunatic, but it's just like we all know what's happening with Cali. So to me to extend Cali and L.A. specifically towards the midterms, I think that optics wise is very good, actually. Well, it keeps it in play. I mean, not in play and play. But I mean, my point is, it's in the dialogue, right? It's just, yeah, it's just in the narrative. Which is helpful. But I'll be honest with you. I mean, I would have loved I know this is Republican. and it'll get me burned at the stake. I would have liked to have seen Steyer and Becerra run off because Steyer would have spent about$200 million of his own money tearing the bark out of Becerra every day.

19:58I wish I could say, look, California's - But obviously you would want Hilton to be the governor, right? Oh my God, yeah. But look - No, of course. Here's the deal. I've been doing this. I ran my first race in 1993. This is not - Like I know when, when Spencer Pratt, I think he's fantastic. I love his videos. I love his message, but LA, you know, this, you left there 75 % Democrat, very heavy minorities. It's just unless like, it's one thing to do viral videos and get second place. It's another thing to get 50 plus one. Karen Bass last night got about 36%. She only needs 14 more points in with a, with the hardcore base that she has that it's just a very tough road for both.

20:41Again, I'd love to win either one. Right. I just think the optics of an extended race is good. Right. It takes media attention away. It keeps us going. If it was Karen Bass versus Raman, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But Spencer Pratt will keep this going and will make them focused time and attention that otherwise could be spent somewhere else. So since we're not doing the panicking version of this, but I do want to talk about the panicans at some point. But since we're doing the kind of positive version of all this, so let's say it goes well. House remains, Senate remains, Trump's feeling good.

21:15What do you think an unencumbered two years left, having been through all of the stuff that we already discussed, Trump looks like? so i think there's two parts to this uh one is i i have made a strong there's three parts one is i've made a strong case the trunk needs to codify a lot of this stuff what has been done by executive order can be undone by executive order they codified some things in the big beautiful bill but they need to lock in a lot of these wins so they can't be undone that's number one number two on a personal level i i if you have screwed trump over in the final two years Katie barred the door, baby, because he's coming.

21:55And then number three is I think that there's got to be an aspect and a transition to what comes next. And I believe that right now that's J.D. Vance's to lose. And do you think, like, he'll ramp up deportations? Do you think – Oh, yeah, yeah. Like, what do you think of the other kind of policy things? Like, to me, it seems right now – I don't even know if deportations have actually slowed down. But it seems like he's picking his fights right now, where it seems to me day after a midterm that goes well, it's all just like, let's roll. I think each one of the – again, as I joked about loving cabinet meetings, I think they look at each one of those folks and say, let's find two or three things inside your wheelhouse that you're going to make sure get done, hands down.

22:40And I, again, I'll go back to Bobby. I think that what's going on in HHS and when they look to reform and go after making sure that big pharma, big food, big ag are held accountable. Each area, I mean, I'm a big fan of what Pete Hegseth has done to reform and align our warfighting capabilities. And so you're going to see a lot more of that. each one, there's not going to be one thing. I actually think that you look at each one and go, they're going to make sure that they lock in something in each area. I'd love to see, and this is me personally, because I don't think they'll do it. I want Doge to come back, man.

23:14I think JD Vance is doing a great job starting the dialogue on fraud, but I find it offensive as a taxpayer to be told, work harder, send more, and we're going to piss this money away. I wish, I think Elon was the right guy to some extent because he had the access to go in and do things, but maybe a little bit more of a bedside manner would be helpful to achieve some of these things. Because I got to be honest, the idea that we have a limestone mine in Pennsylvania that has a pulley system to send records down. I mean, I think, yeah, it's just to me, like, we need to make the government more efficient, more accountable.

23:54And so I don't know, but I will tell you, I think that if Trump, if the first two years have been a preview, like what we're going to see in the last two will be spectacular. So let me ask you about the panikins and the doomsdayers and the people that are constantly talking about from the right, quote unquote, right perspective. I'm not even sure they're on the right anymore. The guy, the Tuckers and the Megyn Kellys, et cetera, et cetera, who are constantly going after Trump now, trying, I think, trying to break MAGA. I honestly believe Tucker will be a Democrat and support a Democrat nominee in 28.

24:31Meghan may do it too, but she's a, she, I think is the most shapeshifter out of all of them at this point. Um, what do you make of what they are doing? And do you think it's making a dent in Trump's support? I mean, everyone that's watching this knows Trump's last 118 endorsements. He won all 118. So for all of these people that are screaming about Thomas Massey, it's like, that would have been the craziest outlier for him to call the Trump a pedophile and then win the election. So I, I, the funny part about this is the, the why is what fascinates me that you're asking. I don't get it because one of the things that I, the media loves to use this phrase without evidence.

25:10Okay. So they'll write a story. Trump said this without evidence, but I, I would, I would love to ask these people. I, when I listened to some of the clips and to be honest with you, I don't listen to any of those people. I just don't. I don't. I don't. Not that I just don't have time. But what I've seen in the clips is I'm always like, I don't get it. Like they make broad sweeping statements. And then I'm like, OK, back it up. Tell me what what is it specifically? Because I just can list off again. I've got some qualms on procedural issues, but I think what Trump has done in NATO, what he's done in our health care, what he has done on trade and taxes, foreign policy.