DOJ Bombshell, Mamdani Causes NYC Real Estate Collapse | 7/15/26 FIRST LOOK

0:03Hey everybody, I'm Dave Rubin and this is First Look. It's Wednesday, July 15th, 2026. We've got a packed show for you today. President Trump announces the U.S. military will leave Iraq after a 23-year mission. Jack Smith's team secretly read text messages between Trump officials and dozens of lawmakers from both parties. Manhattan's luxury real estate market collapses after Mayor Mamdani's pied -à-terre tax takes effect. Let's dive in. President Trump said Tuesday that the United States no longer needs a military presence in Iraq. After 23 years, the American-led coalition mission is set to end on September 30th, and Trump made clear the focus is shifting from troops to investment and energy.

0:54We don't think we need the military there anymore, Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. We're there to help them. We're there to protect them if need be, but we don't think that's going to be necessary. Trump argued that Iran has been very much destabilized and that its military is now just a tiny fraction of what it was only four months ago. With Tehran weakened, he said Baghdad can stand on its own. Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Zaidi agreed. He declared that armed factions operating outside state control would have no justification once the coalition mission ends, and insisted that limiting weapons to the state is a decision, not an option.

1:38Al-Zaidi put it simply, the 30th of September, the US forces would be out of Iraq, while US companies will be inside Iraq. Iraq. This marks a dramatic change for a country once defined by roadside bombs, sectarian bloodshed, and the fight against ISIS. About 2 ,500 US troops remained in Iraq before the drawdown began in September 2025, down from a peak of roughly 170 ,000 in 2007. Nearly all American forces left in 2011, before about 5 ,000 returned in 2014 to combat ISIS. Under a 2024 agreement, the military mission was already scheduled to wind down, with remaining troops focused on advisory roles and counter-ISIS operations linked to Syria.

2:29Iran has long used political parties and powerful militias inside the Popular Mobilization Forces to project influence in Iraq. Washington has pressed Baghdad for years to bring those groups fully under state control. Al-Zaidi, a businessman and political newcomer who took office this year after months of deadlock, is viewed as the man who can finally do it. Trump publicly backed his candidacy, opposed the return of Iran-aligned former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and claimed he played a role in Al-Zaidi's rise. Trump repeatedly called him a great leader and predicted his influence would stretch all throughout the Middle East.

3:12The Trump administration is replacing a military partnership with an economic one, pointing to billions of dollars in planned U.S. energy investments as proof that American companies are now ready to do business where American troops once fought. New documents released Tuesday show that former special counsel Jack Smith's team accessed the text messages of more than 40 members of Congress from both parties during his investigations into President Trump. Republicans say the move ran roughshod over the Constitution. The Department of Justice turned the records over to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley.

3:50They revealed that Smith's office reviewed communications between Trump White House personnel and 44 lawmakers. The list includes Democrats such as Senator Cory Booker, Representative Adam Smith, and former Representative Karen Bass, now the mayor of Los Angeles, as well as Republicans including Grassley himself, Senator Susan Collins, Senator Tom Cotton, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Representative Elise Stefanik. Former Representative Lee Zeldin, now head of the EPA, was also swept up. The messages covered the period from October 2020 through January 20th, 2021. They involved senior Trump officials including Mark Meadows, Dan Scavino, Ivanka Trump, Stephen Miller, Peter Navarro, current CIA Director John Ratcliffe, current FBI Director Cash Patel, Rudy Giuliani, Kellyanne Conway, and then Vice President Mike Pence.

4:46Smith's team had set up a so-called filter team specifically to protect privileged materials and constitutional rights when reviewing records obtained from the National Archives. An internal DOJ email from August 2023 shows the team discussed obtaining 54 Excel files with text messages from White House phones. Protocol required that no materials reach the investigative team without filter team attorney approval. Yet Assistant Attorney General Patrick Davis told Grassley that Smith's investigators bypassed the filter team and directly accessed these text messages. The FBI then identified the people whose numbers sent or received the text.

5:31This comes after Grassley's office previously disclosed that Smith's team had subpoenaed records from 430 Republican individuals or groups and obtained phone logs from more than a dozen Republicans. When asked under oath in a December 2025 congressional deposition whether his team looked at the content of text messages, Smith answered no. Senator Ron Johnson called it yet another grotesque example of the Biden administration's weaponization of the Justice Department. Grassley was even blunter. Jack Smith's criminal investigation of President Trump was a runaway train that had no brakes. Smith's team ran roughshod over the Constitution even after repeated warnings.

6:21Jack Smith has answering to do, and I intend to have him before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the coming months to hold him accountable. Manhattan's ultra-luxury real estate market hit a wall last week after Mayor Zoran Mamdani's pied-a-terre tax went into effect and his anti-wealth rhetoric continued to spook buyers. According to Olshan Realty's weekly luxury market report, only one home asking more than$10 million entered contract between July 6th and July 12th. That is the weakest week for the$10 million plus segment since the final week of December. Normally, three to five trophy homes in that price range go under contract each week.

7:06The broader luxury market held up better. 29 Manhattan homes priced at$4 million or more entered contract, 19 condos, 6 co-ops, and 4 townhouses, with 20 of those deals under$6 million. The single$10 million plus sale was a condominium at 1 ,122 Madison Avenue that asked$21.8 million. The next highest deal was a Chelsea condo just under$10 million. Compass broker Victoria Steiner, who works with international and luxury buyers, called the slowdown shocking in a really bad way. She said the$10 million plus buyer is sophisticated, does extensive homework on taxes and property costs, and is now openly questioning whether New York is still friendly to the wealthy.

7:59The luxury buyer is backing off and thinking twice, she said. Summers are slower, but not this slow. Appraiser Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel noted that the top of the market has been soft since the second quarter, while the segment just below$10 million has been stronger. He cautioned against overreacting to one week of data and said Wall Street and tech wealth remain solid. Still, he acknowledged that uncertainty around the new pied -à-terre tax is likely contributing to the pause. The pied-a-terre tax may be a driver of this pause, Miller said, adding that similar hesitation is showing up in the Hamptons, which is closely tied to Manhattan.

8:42Mamdani's anti-wealth messaging and the new tax are already chilling the very high-end buyers who once treated New York as a global trophy destination. When the people who write the biggest checks start hesitating, the warning signs are impossible to ignore. And that's your first look this Wednesday. Quick recap. President Trump says U.S. forces will leave Iraq by September 30th as the mission shifts from military to economic partnership. Jack Smith's team bypassed its own filter protocols and read text messages involving more than 40 members of Congress. Manhattan's$10 million plus real estate market stalls after Mayor Mamdani's pied -à-terre tax and anti-wealth rhetoric take hold.

9:30We'll keep following all of it. I'm Dave Rubin. Thanks for starting your day with First Look. See you tomorrow.