JD Vance Admits He Was Wrong, New Polling Could Flip Election Expectations | 6/16/26 FIRST LOOK

0:03Hey everybody, I'm Dave Rubin and this is First Look. It's Tuesday, June 16, 2026. We've got a packed show for you today. Vice President JD Vance reflects on his infamous childless cat lady's comment and admits it was one of the dumbest things he's ever said. New polling data suggests Democrats' hopes for a massive midterm wave may be running into political reality. Let's dive in. We start with Vice President J.D. Vance, who is making headlines ahead of the release of his new book, Communion, by revisiting one of the most controversial comments of his political career. And surprisingly, he's admitting he got it wrong.

0:45Vance's new memoir, which chronicles his journey from Protestantism to Atheism and ultimately to Catholicism, officially hits shelves today. In the book, Vance reflects on the infamous Childless Cat Lady's remark he made back in 2021 during an appearance on Tucker Carlson's Fox News program. At the time, Vance argued that America was increasingly being governed by elites who didn't have children and therefore had less of a stake in the country's future. He famously said, we're effectively run in this country via the Democrats, via our corporate oligarchs, by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they've made.

1:27He specifically mentioned figures like Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and argued that people raising children naturally have a greater investment in the future of the country. Now, politically, that argument resonated with many conservatives, but the wording, not so much. The comment resurfaced in 2024 after Donald Trump selected Vance as his running mate and quickly became a favorite attack line for Democrats. Taylor Swift famously jumped into the controversy, endorsing Kamala Harris on Instagram and signing her post, Taylor Swift, Childless Cat Lady. At the time, Vance refused to apologize.

2:09In fact, during a 2024 interview with NBC's Meet the Press, he doubled down. He said, I have a lot of regrets, but making a joke three years ago is not at the top 10 of the list. But now, with a little more distance and a little more perspective, Vance says he sees things differently. In Communion, he writes, One of the dumbest things I ever said came when I argued that childless cat ladies across the Democrat Party were running our country into the ground. He goes on to call it a boneheaded comment, intentionally and successfully provocative rather than illuminating. And honestly, that's probably a fair assessment.

2:49What's interesting is that Vance doesn't walk away from the larger concern he was trying to raise. In fact, he says the backlash distracted from what he believes is the real issue. He writes,

3:07That's a conversation many conservatives continue to have today. Falling birth rates, rising family formation costs, marriage declines, and a culture that often seems more interested in discouraging parenthood than supporting it, but Vance says his delivery got in the way of that discussion, and he ties that realization directly to his Catholic faith. He writes, it's okay to admit error, and later adds, when I consider the church's admonition to respect the dignity of every life, this was a clear moment where I failed. Now, whether you agree with Vance or not, it's a fairly rare thing in politics.

3:45A politician admitting he said something stupid. And in today's political environment, that alone is noteworthy. Now to the midterms. For months, political analysts have confidently predicted that Democrats are headed toward a major wave election in November. After all, historically, the party out of power tends to perform well in midterm elections. But according to new polling data, that blue wave may not be nearly as inevitable as many Democrats hope. CNN polling analyst Harry Enten highlighted the numbers this week, and they tell a very different story than the conventional wisdom. Looking at three major surveys released in June, NBC News, Marquette Law School, Ipsos, Democrats are holding only a razor-thin lead over Republicans nationally, and in some cases, that lead is actually shrinking.

4:37According to Enten, Democrats lost one point in the NBC survey. They lost three points in the Marquette poll. Their lead remained flat in the Ipsos poll. Enten summed it up this way. There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not matching what you might expect if you're expecting a Democratic wave. That's a significant observation because Democrats were holding dramatically larger leads at this same point before previous wave elections. Back in 2006, 2018, Democrats held double-digit advantages in national polling before going on to make major gains. That's not what we're seeing today.

5:19In fact, Enten concluded, Democrats probably take back the House, but it's far from a guarantee. And honestly, that's the key point. The media narrative has often treated Republican losses in November as a foregone conclusion, but voters continue sending more mixed signals. Inflation remains a concern. Crime remains a concern. Immigration remains a concern. And many Americans appear increasingly frustrated with progressive cultural politics. As we've discussed repeatedly here on First Look, there is a tendency among political elites to assume that social media activism reflects the views of average Americans.

6:00Often, it doesn't. I think most of the country has some base level of morality and decency, and don't want this endless quest to destroy everything, whether it's our cities or our moral fabric. Whether you agree with that or not, the polling suggests something important. Voters aren't automatically running back to Democrats, at least not yet. Now, five months is a lifetime in politics. A lot can happen between now and Election Day. But if Democrats were expecting the kind of overwhelming momentum they enjoyed in previous wave years, the current numbers suggest they're still waiting for it to arrive.

6:38And that may be making some people in Washington very nervous. And that's your first look this Tuesday. Quick recap. Vice President J.D. Vance says his famous childless cat lady's comment was one of the dumbest things he's ever said, while still defending the broader point he was trying to make about America's declining birth rates. And new polling suggests Democrats' hopes for a massive midterm wave may be colliding with political reality as their national advantage remains surprisingly small. We'll keep following all of it. I'm Dave Rubin. Thanks for starting your day with First Look. See you tomorrow.