Trump and Mamdani Meet at Gracie Mansion; Former Harris Aides Question 2028 Run | 9/22/26 FIRST LOOK

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1:26he'll be a great one, and talks cost of living, housing, ice, and crime. Former Harris aides and donors increasingly think Kamala Harris will not run again in 2028, even as a new poll still has her leading Democrats if the primary were held today. Republicans enter the midterm sprint with a massive cash and ad advantage. Let's dive in. Trump at Gracie Mansion with Mamdani. President Trump praised New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani after a high-stakes huddle at Gracie Mansion on Monday. Trump is in New York for a scheduled speech to the United Nations General Assembly today. He called the mayor's home a special place, and he would know.

2:10He has been walking through that building since his days as a New York real estate tycoon. I've seen it with numerous different mayors, and I said some great ones and some not-so-great ones. So hopefully you're going to be a great one. I'll be able to say you're going to be a great one. And you're off to a start, Trump said at a press conference after the meeting. Mamdani played nice. We appreciate the president's commitment to the city. And today, you know, the president shared many of his memories of having been to Gracie Mansion before, having been out here as well on the lawn. And we appreciated the conversation of how we can work together to deliver a lower cost of living for New Yorkers.

2:49The populist president was greeted off camera by the socialist mayor before they went private. On the way in, Trump posted on Truth Social, While in New York City, I'm on the way to one of my favorite places in the world, Gracie Mansion. I spent lots of hours there over the years, with some great mayors, some average mayors, and some bad mayors. It will be interesting to see how it looks now, invited by Mayor Mamdani. Look forward to it. Make New York City great again. This is the same pair that used to trash each other as a fascist and a communist. They struck up an unlikely relationship at the White House last November, met again privately in the Oval Office in February, and have kept it going with texts and calls.

3:34Mamdani, a former Queen's state lawmaker, has tried to find common ground with a president who was born in that borough. He has leaned into Trump's construction background and asked for$21 billion in federal grants to deck over rail tracks and build affordable housing at Sunnyside Yard. Both men said that issue came up again Monday, along with ICE deportations, the cost of living, and public safety. Do not confuse photos for results. Mamdani helped secure the release of a Columbia University student detained by ICE. Beyond that, the relationship has produced few tangible wins for the city. Mamdani appeared to soften his anti-Israel line heading into this meeting.

4:19He and Trump still disagree over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Last week, Mamdani insisted, I have never encouraged residents to protest Netanyahu, a close Trump ally, when he arrives to address the UN. That walked back his July line that one of the bedrocks of our city is protest. Over the summer, he said he lacks the power to have the NYPD arrest Netanyahu for alleged war crimes, after campaigning last year on locking up the leader of the Jewish state. Trump has not gone soft. He has been candid. He wants the mayor to do more to fight crime and deport violent illegal immigrants.

4:59He has condemned high taxes in his city of birth, as Mamdani implements a new levy on second homes. Monday was Trump's first visit to Gracie Mansion as president. It was not his first visit. In 2003, he attended Rudy Giuliani's wedding there. In 2007, he and Melania attended a book party for Representative Charles Rangel. Michael Bloomberg hosted both. Presidential stops at the mansion are rare. Harry Truman for a 1949 luncheon during cornerstone ceremonies for UN headquarters. John F. Kennedy in 1962 on medical care for older Americans, Ronald Reagan in 1981 promoting the Westway Project. No matter how it may look, this is not a love story.

5:47It is Trump on Mamdani's turf in the house of the mayor of a city drowning in cost, crime, and open borders politics, saying, make New York great again, and reminding a socialist that results, not slogans, are how you get called a great mayor. Harris in 2028, the people who know her say no. People who know Kamala Harris best increasingly think she will not seek the White House again in 2028. Over the past year, a striking number of former aides, surrogates, and donors have told Axios they expect her to pass. What you see in public, campaigning for midterm candidates, podcasts, a book, can look like a campaign in waiting.

6:31The people who worked for her read it as an effort to stay relevant, not to lock in another presidential bid. Axios asked eight former aides and advisors, including people who served her at a senior level. One said she probably will run. Two called it a coin flip. Five said she likely will not. Why they think a 2028 run is unlikely? She is doing the bare minimum. A serious candidate would hire more, travel more, and push harder into policy fights. Staffers do not see that. They view her as a realist. She knows a new campaign could become a rerun of 2024. One former aide, she's a realist and an astute political observer, and she knows her candidacy could get bogged down in a 2024 rearview mirror.

7:17The money may not follow. Many large donors are still angry about the 2024 loss to Trump and do not want her on the ballot again. LinkedIn co-founder and mega-donor Reid Hoffman recently called her path very challenging. Some former backers are already looking at Wes Moore and Gavin Newsom. David Plouffe, her 2024 senior advisor, was blunt. She would start a third national run in an enviable spot, but her strongest day would be day one. Her strongest day will be her first day in the campaign, he said, predicting her support would erode as the race developed. Aides also say she does not think the job belongs to her alone.

7:58People who worked for her say she lacks the all-consuming certainty that she is the only person who should be president. The one former staffer who still expects her to run put it at a 55 % chance, noting she has ramped up calls to Democratic officials and activists. And yet a new poll released Monday still has Harris as the top choice of Democratic voters if the 2028 primary were held today, a 10-point lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom. That is the Democratic Party in a sentence. The voters' first name on a survey and the professionals who ran her last campaign already shopping for an exit.

8:37Conservatives do not need to overthink it. 2024 was the verdict. A lot of the people who built that campaign do not want a sequel. GOP with big money lead into the midterm sprint. Republicans enter the final sprint to the midterms with a big financial upper hand. The party and its allies are planning to spend about$221 million more on advertising than Democrats and their allies from Monday through Election Day, according to Ad Impact. That covers Senate, House, and state races. Conservative outside groups and party committees also hold a comfortable edge in fundraising, according to FEC filings released Sunday.

9:20That money goes mainly to paid media. Strategists believe ads can move competitive races. A financial advantage is not always decisive. It is still an advantage. President Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported$416 million on hand entering this month. In recent weeks, it has started spending that war chest, which is a big reason Republicans have the ad lead. There is no Democratic super PAC with nearly as much money as MAGA Inc. National party committees tell the same story. The Republican National Committee entered this month with about$126 million on hand. The Democratic National Committee, internal chaos, terrible fundraising, was$750 ,000 in debt.

10:09House Republicans' main campaign committee had roughly a$13 million cash-on-hand edge over House Democrats. Senate Republicans trailed Senate Democrats in cash-on-hand only because the GOP committee spent earlier,$46 million in August, to support candidates versus$1 million from the Democratic committee that month. month. Democrats' one real financial edge has been at the candidate level. Their Senate candidates have significantly outraised Republican rivals in previous reports. Updated candidate versus candidate numbers will not be out until next month. In the final stretch, campaigns and groups often try to drain accounts to zero.

10:53Spending data is more revealing than fundraising data. In eight of the top nine Senate races, Republicans have an advertising advantage over Democrats, Ad Impact says, a gap as big as roughly$30 million in Ohio. That gap is expected to grow by tens of millions now that the crypto industry is spending for the Republican there too. Across Senate, House, and state offices, Republicans are now set to spend about$888 million on ads versus Democrats roughly$666 million. Outside groups power the GOP edge. Of the$350 million reserved for ads by Republicans in those nine races, only about one-tenth comes from campaigns and party committees.

11:40This is what a coalition with energy looks like. MAGA Inc. flush, RNC flush, DNC underwater. Ads already booked through November. Democrats can talk about candidate accounts. Republicans are talking about what voters will actually see on television and their phones until election day. And that's your first look this Tuesday. Quick recap, Trump walks into Gracie Manchin, talks housing, ice, cost of living, and crime with socialist mayor Zoran Mamdani, and tells him he hopes he'll be one of the great ones after years of calling each other fascist and communist. Kamala Harris still leads a 2028 Democratic trial heat, but five of eight former aides told Axios she likely will not run, donors are cold, and David Plouffe says her best day would be day one.

12:36And Republicans head into the midterm homestretch with MAGA Inc. sitting on$416 million, the DNC in debt, and a$221 million planned ad edge through Election Day. We'll keep following all of it. I'm Dave AI. Thanks for starting your day with First Look. See you tomorrow.

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