El Clásico + Matchday 10 Preview

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1:49Hello everyone and welcome to TSFP's preview podcast every Friday. Looking ahead to what's coming up in La Liga EA Sports. We're looking ahead to Match Day 10 this weekend. I'm Phil Kittramelidi, Sid Lowe is alongside me. Hello Sydney.

2:01Phil Kitromilides:Hello Philip. You alright? I'm alright thank you. How are you? Why are you smiling? Because I'm just picturing you scoring a hat-trick because you've just come back from your game of football. I didn't score a hat-trick. A couple of nice assists. Oh, love it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was all right. The magic's still there, still there. No magic, zero magic, very little magic on the Magico meter in this game, basically. It's just a bunch of 40 plus dads who can barely run. So, but yes, it's fun. my kind of game yeah yeah it's pretty fun anyway what's going to be um very much not like that is this weekend's action in la liga ea sports some big games coming up not least the classico on sunday to which we will devote a large chunk of this preview podcast i think it's only normal that we do that but we will be mentoring other games as well because there are some really important games there's a massive game tonight actually in san sebastian for real sociedad as they host sevilla if real sociedad lose this game there is a chance that the manager doesn't survive, but we'll see.

2:58They've only got six points from nine matches and they start in the relegation zone. Then on Sunday, no, on Saturday even, there is the big game of the weekend. It is bottom against second bottom, Girona against Oviedo. Absolutely huge one for your boys, Sydney. After that, we've got Espanyol against Elche. Athletic Club against Getafe is a game that you and me will be commentating for worldwide audiences. So it is the game which is most likely to finish nil-nil this weekend, statistically, not just because we're on it, but us being on it. It's possibly the kiss of death as well. But yeah, Getafe against the Athletic Club in Bilbao.

3:38And then there's a local derby at Mestalla. Saturday night football is Valencia against Villarreal. Then on Sunday, Mallorca against Levante. Real Madrid against Barcelona is the 4-15 game. Osasuna-Celta-Vigo and Raya Mallecano, the mighty rio against alaves sunday night in mayecas monday night football is big it's bettis against atletico madrid really big game atletico madrid's absolute horror show of away form continuing in midweek in the champions league can they get their first away win of the season six away matches no wins um poor from atletico madrid before we get to the classico seed let's touch upon a few issues before we get to the classico which is obviously where the bulk of the podcast is going to be.

4:22I said Royal Sociedad tonight, if they lose at home to Sevilla, the manager might be gone. Sergio Francisco, of course, was the B-team coach who took over from Imano Aguacil, who'd been there for five years previously in the summer. They've only won one of nine games. They are second or third bottom. There are three teams on six points. Chirono and Oviedo are the other two. The sensations, the feelings around this Royal Sociedad team haven't been good. And six points from a possible 27 are an absolutely terrible return. If he was to lose tonight, do you think there's a chance that the manager goes?

4:54Phil Kitromilides:Yeah. In fact, in a way, maybe the surprise is that he's lasted this long because they've been really, really poor. I think one of the reasons to not sack him, well, I'm sure there's more than one reason, but one of the key reasons to not sack him, I think, is that what Real Sociedad did by bringing him up was to try and create a sense of continuity, to try and continue with a plan that worked with Al Guafil, with Imanol, to try and create the idea that this is a calm transitional process, that we have an identity to the way that we want to do things, that we have a coach in place who knows the players from Sanse, from the B team and can bring them through.

5:34Phil Kitromilides:And so when you invest into more than just a man, but into an idea, then I think there's a reluctance to break with that because then you're faced with the possibility of, hang on, everything that this was founded upon is broken by this. And so I think there is a reluctance to do so. I think they will try and resist. I think it won't be just about if they lose tonight, but maybe how they lose and also how the supporters respond. But they don't look good at all. And I don't think you can look at Braus Otera this season and say they've been desperately unlucky and say they're underperforming in terms of the results are not as good as the performance levels have been.

6:15Phil Kitromilides:I just don't think that's the case. They genuinely haven't been good. And when you're genuinely not good, Sid, it's... Things tend to need to be changed. Yes, they are once again woefully underperforming. They're ex-G, only Atletic Lumen Espanol are underperforming more, but they've got 3.9 less goals than they should have scored. And goals have been... That's systemic, isn't it? Because as you say, because that happened last year. So this isn't you looking at this and saying, they should be much better. Well, yes, they should be much better. As I say, I don't think the performances have been that great, although they have created more chances than they've scored.

6:48Phil Kitromilides:And I think that that issue points out, for whatever reason, they haven't fixed that problem from last year. They haven't been into the market well, or they haven't found the alternative up front. And that's with having good players, by the way. And they do have good players. Yeah, made some good signings as well, in terms of bringing in Gonzalo Guedes, Carlos Soler as well, to play with Kubo, Mikel Lujabal, Bryce Mendes Younger Lerrera, some good players there Alright, let's move on and talk about the only game that you're really interested this weekend, which is Giordano against Oviedo, as we said, bottom against second bottom Sydney, how big is this for Oviedo?

7:26Phil Kitromilides:I think it's massive I think it's even bigger than it appears because you can look at this in terms of the position on the table, you can look at this in terms of the results and you can say this is huge I think it's even more huge in that it's the second game in charge for Luis Carrion. We talked about this a little bit last week. The manager, Paolo, was sacked. Carrion was brought in to replace him. The fans aren't happy about that because Carrion is the manager that walks out on them after reaching the playoffs two years ago. And there was a quite significant degree of tension around him in Oviedo's first game at home against Espanyol.

8:00Phil Kitromilides:Oviedo started okay for 25 minutes or so, but then got beaten and were beaten fundamentally by a better side. and I think the only thing that fixes that kind of tension is success, is winning and I think the Oviedo need to start winning not just because they need the points but because they need to pacify a little bit the situation as quickly as possible. There was a statement this week from the Oviedo Ultras, I suppose for want of a better word, in the North stand saying that we're not happy about this, no one is happy about this but we need to realise that actually we need to start winning, we need to be in this together and there needs to be a collective kind of support for the team.

8:40Phil Kitromilides:And not everyone agrees. And so I think there is a real risk of fracture. And I think the only way that you prevent that is to start winning quickly. And Oviedo need to do it. And they probably need to do it now. And actually going away to Girona, even if Girona aren't very good, it's not really the game where you want to be in a position where you have to win. Well, they are bottom. So if you're going to be away at any team and you have to win, being away to the bottom team maybe is... But in theory, Girona are not that bad. But yes, you're right. And obviously the other thing, I suppose, if you look at it from a survival point of view, and this doesn't just apply to Oviedo, by the way, because I don't want to labour the Oviedo point to everyone.

9:17Phil Kitromilides:No, you would never do that. No, no, of course not. Is that this year, looking at the table, it does feel like there's a chance that someone big goes down, or biggish, or someone who shouldn't go down. And this actually, I suppose, from Girona's point of view, is a big test for them as well. because this is that thing of actually are you genuinely in trouble because if they were to lose to oviedo you think wow this isn't just like a bad start because they've improved a little bit haven't they over the last three or four weeks it feels like there's an i not an identity building but an attitude building the right kind of attitude mitchell had talked about them having a poor attitude before and kind of not realizing that they're in the kind of position they're in they need to be realistic about it and so on and so forth and need to be able to be defensive which they did last week and it worked reasonably well.

10:01Phil Kitromilides:And so I think that was a mindset change. And I think from their point of view, it's important as well that they win to try and tell themselves, OK, this is the league that we're playing in now. OK, let's move on and talk about the massive game at the Bernabeu. It's Real Madrid against Barcelona. It's top against second. It is the fixture in Spanish and indeed world football. I have to say, I think last season's matches, which Barcelona all won and won convincingly, absolutely smashing Real Madrid in terms of goals scored. Last season's Clásico kind of felt like it had regained its status as a fixture that all over the world really want to see.

10:44And I'm not just saying this as somebody who works in Spanish football. It's in my interest for it to be on everybody's radar. I think I was in London. Yeah, I was in London for the first Clasico last season where Barcelona won 4-0 and I was in a bar and the bar was packed with people watching El Clasico. My mates wanted to watch El Clasico. Obviously, having someone like Jude Bellingham there and Lamin and all this, it had brought back the star factor to the Clasico and Kylian Mbappé as well. But it does feel like those games, it's kind of back on being on everybody's radar. And I'm really excited to see the game and to commentate it this weekend.

11:27But I don't know if before we get into the actual sort of nitty gritty of the game, if you've got that feeling, Sid, that the Clásico is kind of getting its star status back.

11:36Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, and I think that goes hand in hand with Barcelona becoming a strong team as well again and becoming not just a strong team, but a fun team. having Laminia Marle emerging as a player that people are excited to see and who makes football fun. And we sometimes forget about the most basic thing of all. He makes football fun. He makes it enjoyable. And I think that's a big part of it. I don't think that first Classico last year, we yet fully appreciated how good Barcelona could be. And that was actually the moment probably when we realised that they really could be. Because they had a good start to the season and then they got beaten by Roussou Theret, didn't they?

12:08Phil Kitromilides:A couple of weeks before the Classico, if I remember rightly. Or did they lose to Roussou Theret a couple of weeks afterwards? Osasuna, sorry, yes, and Osasuna was later on, that's right. And at that point, we thought, oh, maybe that early start, they weren't quite as good as we thought. And I think the Clasico made us think, okay, there's a team there. And the fact that they got to a Champions League semi-final last year reinforces that for this year, that this is a good team again. If anything, actually, the doubts were about Real Madrid now, not about them. But I think you're right. I think it's a combination of that.

12:35Phil Kitromilides:It's a combination of the fact that you've got, if you like, that kind of narrative thing of having Mbappe against Laminya Mal, the fact that you've got now from an English point of view you've got an English player in both teams which I'm trying to think now that might be the first time that's ever happened because Lineker is the last English player at Barcelona and I don't think Madrid had any English players at that point it's just probably the first time that they've ever had both had Englishmen in I'm going to have to double check you tell me mate yeah well I mean certainly since since pre-Civil War it will be I mean obviously the early years they would have been there would have been Englishmen in both teams.

13:10Phil Kitromilides:So I think that kind of adds an element to it from an English point of view and internationally maybe not quite so much, but from an English point of view it does. But I do think this feels like a massive, massive game again. And like always with that first Classico, it feels like it's the game that sets the tone for the season. This is the game that tells us what this season will look like. Now it doesn't necessarily follow that it will follow that, but actually it's remarkably consistent that the first Classico winner is the one that goes on to win the league have you got the stats to back that up Sid I haven't but I wrote about it a few years ago and it was around about 80 percent of the previous Classicos the winner of the first one when I I wrote about it the year that the year that after Classico Granada were top of the table so which year is that it's about five years ago oh yeah and essentially I'd gone through and worked out the first Classico and who came out of that Classico as the winner went on to win the league and it was over the last kind of 20 years.

14:05Phil Kitromilides:And it was about 80%. And obviously some of the time when it wasn't correct was because someone other than those two wanted. So in terms of those two, it really does seem to set the tone. I'm going to go and check that. I love that stat. You might hear it in commentary because that's a stat. I'll look for the Granada piece for you and send you the basics at that point and you'll have to work it out from then onwards. I feel like Real Madrid are favourites for this. Obviously, not just because they're top, they're playing at home. I just got a feeling that Barca are kind of there for the taking.

14:38And if you look at the number of big chances that they have conceded against teams in the lower echelons of the division, I went through and had a look at how many Opta-defined big chances they conceded against some of the teams that they've played so far this season. Obviously, Opta defines a big chance as a chance where a player can be reasonably expected to score. Against Levante, Levante had six big chances in that game. Barcelona only had three. Against Rayo, Rayo had five big chances. Barcelona only had four. Against Sevilla, Sevilla had five big chances. Against Girona last week, Girona had three big chances in that game.

15:19Barcelona only had two. big chances to all these teams who are in the bottom half of the division. Real Madrid should be able to, if not take you apart, but certainly cause you a whole world of pain.

15:34Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, right. So last year's Classico and the narrative thread all the way through last year was about this high line. And all the way through last year, there was this idea that Barca are going to get caught out. And for quite a lot of the year, I found myself with ESPN in particular, but in general, kind of trying to push back against this and say, look, look, they do this high line so well. The timing is perfect. The coordination is good. The press is good to prevent the pass being played through the way that it wants to. And you get to that Real Madrid game and you think, oof, someone like Kylian Mbappe with the speed that he's got, he's going to tear through them.

16:06Well, he did tear through them, but the timing wasn't quite right.

16:08Phil Kitromilides:Eight times he got caught offside last year. Eight times Real Madrid got caught offside 12 because that structure worked really well. And I remember really clearly the feeling in that first half was that Barcelona were really vulnerable. Because you could see it. Boom, through the gap. Boom, through the gap. Boom, through the gap. But they were doing it so perfectly, they weren't as vulnerable as it appeared they were. Now, what's happening this year is that they're not getting that timing right. That they're not applying the pressure on the passer in the same way. That it's not as well coordinated.

16:35Phil Kitromilides:That other teams have worked out the timings and the movement and where to begin the run. Not to begin the run on the shoulder, but to begin the run a bit further back. I don't doubt for a minute that Mbappe has been working on this. because nothing will have pissed him off more last year than to have been the person being pointed at off that Clasico. And now that's not to say it immediately gets fixed. And of course, the counter argument to what I'm saying, and I'm sure lots of Barcelona fans are thinking this right now is, hang on a minute, there are a load of other Clasicos and he didn't do it in those either.

17:02Phil Kitromilides:No, he didn't quite. Although in the one at Montjuic, he sort of did. He scored a few goals in that one. He scored a few goals in that one. And so you sort of think, and also just for someone as quick as him, just that modification of the run that says the run is either bent a little bit or the run starts a metre further back, you're fast enough to beat those defenders, even if you do give them a metre's head start. And I don't, I cannot, I'm absolutely certain that this will have been worked on. And it's up against a defence that now looks vulnerable. And the stats you've given me there are really, really telling, really clear.

17:41Phil Kitromilides:Now, that's not to say that Real Madrid will necessarily get seven, but they might only need two. Yeah. They might even only need one. Now, it's unlikely to because Barcelona, I think, are likely to score goals. And I think Barcelona are likely to dominate the possession of the ball. But, of course, you dominate possession of the ball, it's not enough if you've got teams streaming through you. I would be willing to bet, and I don't know the stats on this, but I'd be willing to bet the games that you've just mentioned, Levante, Sevilla. I'm not so sure about Raya, but I think Raya as well, that Barcelona were heavily dominant in possession in all of those games.

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20:20There is obviously players missing for both sides. I was going to say about Barcelona, but Real Madrid have had plenty of players out defensively. Almost their entire first choice back line has been coming back from injury or struggling. We'll see who plays at the back for Real Madrid. We're not sure if Dean Howson is going to be fit. He may or may not be right back. If it's Fedi Valverde, if it's Dani Carvajal or Trent, who are both close to being fit, but it's whether or not they are risked in a game of this magnitude from the off. For Barcelona, we know that Joan Garcia is not going to be there.

20:53Dani Olmer is not going to be there. Lewandowski is not going to be there, I don't think. Rafinha might be and the significance of Rafinha is just everything that we've just said previously about what's going wrong for Barcelona it can't be attributed solely to his absence but it comes down to quite a lot of him not being there, affects the balance of the team and how the team defend and like, hold on a second, why is not having your left winger, how does that affect how you defend Well, it does.

21:26Phil Kitromilides:Because he leads the press. Because he's the most aggressive. Because he's the person most imposing, if you like, personality and character on the rest of the players. Because he's the first to lead it and to drag others through it. Because he's also, I think, the best of the Barcelona players. We talk a lot, by the way, about teams going through Barcelona's high line. You look at how often last year Barcelona beat teams by going through other teams' high lines. Or maybe not quite as high as their own, because very few teams play that high. But running into space beyond teams. And it was almost always Rafinha.

21:56Phil Kitromilides:And it would sometimes be Lewandowski coming deep to receive the ball, pulling defenders with him. The ball is turned. It's put through the gap. There's Rafinha going. That was so important to them last year. I personally think that Rafinha's decisive role in everything they did last year has been overlooked a little bit. I think the excitement around Laminia Mal has, and actually in recent weeks, I would say, I think it came a little bit later, but the quality of the way that Pedri's playing, I think has served to eclipse a little bit what Rafinha did last year. And I don't think it's entirely fair.