Matchday 16 Preview

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1:54Well, do you know what is possibly the most... Well, you tell me what you think the least exciting game is and tell me why you think it's Elche Mallorca and then ask yourself who's commentating on that one this weekend. Mallorca-Elche. Sorry, Mallorca-Elche. Yeah, OK. Are you also going to Getafe Espanyol on Saturday night? And Atletico Madrid-Valencia and Sevilla-Oviedo, yeah. Wait, hold on. You can't go to Atletico Madrid. You're going to Atletico Madrid-Valencia? Atletico Madrid is sufficiently close to the studio where we do the 4-15 game. for me to go to the first half of Atletico Madrid against Valencia.

2:25I was going to say, yeah. I mean, first half. Only the first half, yeah. Wow. All right, Sid. Good, good commitment. Finishing the year strongly, mate. That is pretty decent. Well done. All right, this is what's coming up this weekend, and then we'll pick out a few things to preview. Friday Night Football is at, I was going to say Anueta. Are we still allowed to call it Anueta? It's the Reale Arena officially, but it's in San Sebastian, Real Sociedad against Ciudad. This is a question for you, Phil. I'm going off on a tangent on the very, very first corner. I'm going off on the very first corner.

2:57But I've actually had this discussion this week about whether or not my newspaper is supposed to call the Camp Nou the Spotify Camp Nou. To what extent are we obliged to give it to the sponsor's name? And actually, no one seems to have a very clear answer. Obviously, the Realea really is different because it's changed its entire name. Why have you not had this same conversation about the Riadere Metropolitano? Exactly. I think we haven't. Although we did tend to call it the Wanda before, but that's, of course, because it was its first name. I think if you change a stadium's name and it still exists, it's really hard.

3:33A lot of people still call it the Wanda. Absolutely. Of course they do. Xavi Alonso called it the Wanda in a press conference two weeks ago. Then again, he called Bilbao Bibabadu, remember? Yes. That was quite funny. Then again, he's done a lot of things. He has done a lot of things. in just a moment. Anyway, carry on. Sorry about that. Yes, first corner. That's Friday night, Royal Sociedad against Girona. Then on Saturday, as Sid mentioned, he's going to the first half of Atletico Madrid against Valencia. Atletico Madrid, home form, absolutely impeccable. Valencia are absolute shambles. Then you've got Mallorca against Elche.

4:06If you're watching across the world, you may well have the dulcet tones of Sid Lowe on co-coms. If you're watching Barcelona against Osasuna after that. You'll be hearing me discussing Barcelona and potentially keeping up their 100 % record at home up against the team with the worst away record in the division is Osasuna. Then Saturday night, Footballista Taffi against Espanyol. Obviously, Sid's going to that. Then on Sunday, are you going to Seville? Yeah, yeah. Seville Oviedo? Yeah, yeah. You're going to Seville? Yeah, yeah. Of course, you bloody are. You glorious lunatic. Wow, that's amazing.

4:39Sid's going to Seville to see Seville against Oviedo. Then we've got Celta Vigo against the Athletic Club de Bilbao. Levante against Villarreal, a local-ish derby. Alaves against Real Madrid. Sunday night football is it Xavi Alonso's final game in charge. It will be if he loses. And then Monday night football is Rayo Vallecano against Betis, the mighty Rayo. We'll go in chronological order, although the focus will really be on that game at Mendy for Roza on Sunday evening, which Xabi Alonso heads in, having had a little bit of a stay of execution following the midweek defeat to Manchester City.

5:17Analysis of that and his position over at patreon.com forward slash TSFP on the bonus pod we did yesterday. Let's start then with Atleti against Valencia, Atletico Madrid, coming off the back of a decent and much-needed win in Eindhoven against PSV in the Champions League. They are, Sid, nine points behind Barcelona after an absolutely dreadful week. The good news is that they are at home against a Valencia side who do look relatively shambolic and they have been very strong Atletico Madrid and also Julian Alvarez managed to score in midweek and we know the importance of him to this side as well.

5:54So Atletico Madrid, big, big favourites going into this game. Yeah, absolutely. I think the frustration for Atletico Madrid is that let's go back to the way you just framed it, nine points behind. And so you have this poor start to the season, and then you have a really, really good run that puts them within reach and then they fall away again. And there's that phrase I use in Spanish all the time, Arimolque, always playing catch-up, always playing catch-up. And I think there comes a point where you think, I just wonder if emotionally, at what point do Atletico Madrid not deliberately disengage, but kind of emotionally disengage?

6:24We did all of this to get to that point, then two defeats in a row and it's kind of gone again. And now you've got to start all over again. In terms of this specific game, I don't think there's too much doubt. Obviously, look, it's football, so weird things happen. And Valencia, I think they are the kind of team that you can imagine being frustrating, at least, for Atletico Madrid. They are the kind of team that you can imagine trying to make this a not-particularly-attractive game and maybe succeeding in making it a not-particularly-attractive game. Who knows whether they'll succeed? But you're right, on the face of it, this is an absolutely clear-cut home win.

6:56I think, I mean, previously we've spoken about Atletico Madrid at home actually being pretty good to watch. Yes, they are. They are good to watch. They are good to watch because I think they play a bit more front-footed because they're very good players, because I think there's something in the nature of the sense of comfort home. I also think, I sometimes think it's about the way you perceive the game in advance. So we're at home, therefore we can play. And it's almost that simple. Therefore we can play, let's go and do this. Away, it's different, isn't it? We've got to protect ourselves, got to try and...

7:26And sometimes you just wonder, how difficult is it really to create, to somehow, I don't know, I suppose one way of putting it would be to say, how difficult is it to con yourself, to trick yourself, to say, well, we're playing away, but we're playing at home. Let's just go and do it anyway. But at home, they have been very, very good to watch. They've had a nice variety to the way they play. They've wanted possession. They've been quite attacking. They score the first goal every time. They, generally speaking, at home, haven't then been put on the back foot. I think they've mostly been able to kind of keep playing through that.

7:57It's not a case of at home. the other thing that happens, I think, with Atletico is that old accusation against them of you score and then you sit back. They tend not to do that at home. It's as if they know that, you know, we're better than this lot. I also think we're still early enough in the season, particularly because we've had injuries to Alex Baena at the start of the season. One or two doubts about Julian Alvarez and a handful of players who are still playing for their places. But I think we're early enough in the season that there are still some players who, how do I put this, are still trying to prove themselves, if you see what I mean, or still trying to demonstrate their place.

8:29And so I think that sense of competition and not yet being sure, well, that guy will play anyway, which is a real killer for teams, I think, sometimes, I think is part of why Atletico Madrid are really good, even in games when maybe they don't need to be. Yeah. It was an extraordinary record that came to an end at the weekend. Atleti had scored the first goal in every single match until their 1-0 defeat in Bilbao against Atletico club. A quick word on Valencia. We spoke about Xabi Alonso's neck being on the line, footballistically speaking, in terms of his job. Carlos Corbaran is under serious pressure at Valencia, a Valencia side, who have been pretty meh, I think it's fair to say, and don't seem to show any great signs of improvement.

9:14Comparing where they were at this point last season, they do have four points more. They're 16th and they were 19th last season. He took over at Christmas and led them to pretty comfortable safety, but they haven't kicked on from their in and around the relegation battle once again. If they get a bit of a pasting at the Metropolitano, which is possible, I think he is going to be under serious, serious pressure to keep his job. Yeah, I think the thing that keeps him in place, well, I think there are two things. I think one is an awareness that there aren't very many alternatives out there. I think that goes hand in hand with an awareness of some of the weaknesses of the squad.

9:56But then the really big thing I think is that he has, with Ron Goulet, what's his official title? Is it CEO? Is it director? I'm not sure. I think it's CEO. Has someone who, in theory at least, is behind him and backs him and thinks he is the right manager for the job. And of course, he turned things around really quite successfully last year. but there is a degree of disconnect between him and some of the players and of course there's you know you just talked about the figures when a club gets itself in in in a position in which there's a risk of relegation and in particular I think this happens even more at the bottom than at the top because what happens at the bottom that doesn't happen at the top is that the margin from improvement is usually higher and there's usually a sense that all we need to do isn't necessarily find the right manager but find someone who provokes a reaction and and when you're faced by the prospect of relegation, I think it is really, really tempting to say, right, let's change it.

10:48Let's change something. Even if we don't really know what it is we're changing. And in the case of Corbran, a manager who has a bit of a disconnect with some of his squad, I think it's really tempting to think, well, why don't we get someone who can get the best out of the handful of good players we've got? Okay, that's Atletico Madrid against Valencia. Let's move on and talk about Barcelona welcoming Osasuna to the Spotify camp now, where they've got a perfect record, Barcelona. It's an extraordinary, extraordinary run that Barcelona are on. They have conceded the first goal and won, come back to win, their last four games in all competitions.

11:24So it happened against Alaves, Atletico and Barcelona in the league. It's happened against Eintracht Frankfurt midweek. Sid, it's happened seven times this season. It happened nine times last season. So it's happened 16 times under Hansi Flick in all comps that they've conceded first and actually come back to win. We've spoken about Barcelona's idea under Hansi Flick basically being outscoring teams. Here's the good news for them. They're up against an Osasuna side who haven't scored in their last five away games against Barcelona, who have the worst away record in the division and have only scored three goals away from El Salah all season.

12:04So the statistics would lead us to suggest that they won't have to come from behind on Saturday evening, although never underestimate Barcelona's capacity to concede an early goal. Yeah, exactly. The statistics would lead us to say that. The statistics would also lead us to say that if they do go behind, they will come back. And I think one of the things that's interesting for me, and I haven't got the numbers in front of me, you may well be able to disprove this theory, But here's the theory for me. Last year, those comebacks felt like comebacks. This year, they kind of don't. They're not happening dramatic and late.

12:35So Barcelona are conceding early, but then putting themselves back in the league relatively early as well. So we're not seeing like those 90-second minute winners, for example. 75 % of their goals have come in the first half. There you go. The vast majority of their goals in the first half. So I'm glad that the statistics back that up. So in that sense, although it has been a comeback, strictly speaking, and that they've gone behind, it hasn't felt like they've been on edge this year quite the same way it hasn't felt like they've been doing these amazing comebacks where you think god at some point they're going to get their fingers burnt now the thing is though that shouldn't that shouldn't hide for them the possibility of getting your fingers burnt because if you do concede early even if you're really good even if you get your equalizer very early and then you get 2-1 in front before halftime which is what's tending to happen it doesn't necessarily mean you're all what that's always going to happen now for what it's worth I watched Oslo Sooner on Monday and I and I really well I watched the first half of them and to be honest after that I just I did the game oh did you okay well you tell me if the second half is the same I actually thought their start was really good and the best I've seen them play for a while because at least they made things happen the first 15-20 minutes yes yeah yeah they made them and then they sat back after this and then they sat back um and and that's the best I've seen them play because I in the in the couple of weeks before on this ongoing search that I have to find teams that are as bad as Oviedo to see if there's a chance of us surviving in the last few weeks but not brilliantly and Monday night really put a nail in the coffin for me um well there's Levante exactly but but honestly before Monday there was definitely Osasuna I thought the last four or five weeks before that they've been awful really awful I thought they are the worst team I think it's quite likely that this year doesn't last very much longer.

14:17But then they produced that 15, 20, 25 minutes at the start of Monday night's game. Yeah. And then they were pretty comfortable in the second half as well. If your business runs on five different apps, 12 browser tabs, and one spreadsheet that everyone's afraid to touch, it's probably time for Odoo. Odoo is an all-in-one business management software that connects every part of your business into one powerful, easy-to-use platform. So instead of wasting time switching between disconnected systems, your entire business works together in real time. Your team moves faster, your data stays accurate, and you can actually focus on growing your business.

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16:19Know your sleep score with Apple Watch. iPhone 11 or later required. Let's see how else is going to get on at the camp now. Then, Sid, briefly, your magical trip to Seville. I was in Seville last weekend, saw Betis against Barcelona. Lovely city, lovely place, lovely spot. I think my trip might be a bit shorter than yours. Going off on a tangent, and we're not talking about Betis, we're talking about Sevilla, but they confirmed, I think the president of Betis this week, that they're going to be at La Cartuja for three years. Yeah. Previously, they said two and a half. Now it's edging up to three.

16:55It might be a bit longer than three, let's see. But you know what? I actually think they've done a really good job at La Cartuja. I went there. It was obviously against Barcelona and it was packed and there was 65 ,000 people, but it properly felt like a Betis home game. Oh, it does. Yeah. It was super noisy. The atmosphere was terrific. So, you know. Anyway, we're not talking about that. We're talking about Sevilla against Oviedo. Are you going there with any ounce of hope, Sid? Yes. Yes. Because I don't think Sevilla are that good. Oh, this is fighting talk. Yeah. And we're going to get a nil-nil draw.

17:31you'd love a nil-nil draw you take it i think i probably would take a nil-nil draw yeah yeah i think another one i mean i'd rather it was a four-all draw if i need to have some fun while we're while we're only getting a single point you know um i think severe in the last few weeks it's felt there's a couple of things that have happened for me one of them obviously is that is the level of performance and then and that hasn't been great you know against bettis they they really weren't very good there was that slightly weird moment last week of did you see that it was a bizarre bit of footage of Almeida staring out the fourth, I was going to call it the linesman, but it's a woman.

18:02The lines, do you call it, say lineswoman? That's not the right word. Assistant referee is the word I'm looking for. Sorry. Yes. And he was kind of staring her out after his decision. And then he did this talk post game where he, where essentially what he was saying was without having. I've got three daughters. Yeah. And essentially what he was saying was without having been accused of this in the first place, although maybe he had been by her what he was saying was i've been accused of a lack of respect but there's no lack of respect but then his defense was i've got daughters a mother and a wife and so yeah so i just wonder if he if if at the very least it's getting to him if the dynamic between him and her was different because she's a woman if you sort of mean in terms of right but it was quite bizarre because he basically just decided to sort of stand there looking at her because it's like well come on then um but i do think that there's a broader thing which is that sense of the enjoyment of how he was managing things has slipped away a little bit.

18:55Off the back of the derby, off his response to the trouble in the derby, off that moment last week, just to kind of, you know, some of the decisions in terms of which players are playing. That said, I think anybody at Sevilla with any kind of depth of vision, any depth of analysis, knows that their flaws are not about their coach, or at least certainly not only about their coach, definitely not. Third worst defence in the division, Sevilla, although Oviedo are not exactly goal machines. No, but we are the best defence in the division over the last five games. Over the last five games, let's put that caveat out there.

19:29Okay, and so to Mendy Therratha. Sunday night football, it's going to be packed, it's going to be noisy, it's going to be hostile, probably going to be quite cold. It is not exactly the kind of place you want to go with your job on the line, but it does feel like Sabi Alonso's job is on the line just because Real Madrid have won two of the last eight matches. And if they lose to 11th place Alaves, I genuinely think that the situation becomes untenable, even if there isn't any real viable options to bring in and replace Xavi Alonso. I think it's what you were saying about the look for a kind of reaction.

20:08It would be untenable. If they lose to Alaves, I genuinely think Xavi Alonso is gone. Yeah. How likely do you think that is to happen? Well, I mean, there's a broader question, by the way, about Xavi Lons, which is I think there's already a complete lack of faith in him. And therefore, if there was an alternative, I think they'd already be doing it. And I think maybe what Christmas does is give them time to try and find one properly and do it properly. So I feel that it's a scenario in which he wins this game and wins the Sevilla game and still gets replaced over Christmas. But anyway, that's enough.

20:39No, they wouldn't do that. They can't do that. I think they can. I think they can. No way. Depending on how they play, I think they can. Anyway, this particular game, look, there's a bit of me that my gut reaction just says to you, nah, there's no way Real Madrid would win this. But actually, it's the kind of game they've had difficulties with, against the kind of opponent they've had difficulties with. They are a team, and we've seen this very, very clearly in this run of games, but I think we saw it even earlier in the season as well. They are a team that when they're not able to run into space, have real difficulties making things happen.

21:14Let's go back to the beginning of the season, shall we, with Real Madrid. And let's go back to the phrase which makes me look very stupid, but which I keep going back to. At that point, we're saying Real Madrid are boringly good, aren't they? Because earlier in the season, we were watching them win games, never really suffer. They weren't conceding chances. Courtois wasn't having to make loads of saves. It was very comfortable. It was well-structured. It was well-organised. and they weren't very exciting, but they were winning. But even then with, yeah, but they're winning with, you know, Evden Militao scores this amazing goal from 500 yards out against Espanyol, for example.

21:46Or they win 1-0 with a ball into the box and then not very much else happens. Or Mbappé gets a penalty. Or a penalty. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I don't want this to sound like a kind of a dismissal, but now it's five penalties this season, I think, I'm right in saying, in the league. It's more than that. It's seven penalties in the league. Five they've scored and two they've missed? Because they've got to score. I think they might have scored five, but it may be six actually now. I'm not sure. Anyway, the point really here is just to say that they were kind of finding a way through without really being that good.

22:17But I guess there was a combination of things happening. One was the sense that they weren't struggling, that they weren't being put under pressure, that they weren't conceding goals. You thought, well, you know, the structure is building. We can see what they're trying to do. And it's not very exciting, but they are finding a way through. And some of the fault lines hadn't really become that clear yet until they went to Almaty to play in the Champions League. And then you get the next situation you get, is you get, you then start, they get beaten by Athletic Cambridge really badly. You think, ah, maybe those struggles to score goals are now starting to come back to bite them.

22:47Or we're always there, and just that little bit isn't happening. Now, for what it's worth, what happens in this game, I think, is what we saw in the early in the season. They're not very good. They don't get put under a huge amount of pressure, but a little bit, but they find a way to score the goal. I mean, it's worth saying that they have a lot of players missing. They have loads of points missing, yes. Álvaro Carreras and Fran Garcia are suspended. Edemilitao is injured. Trent is injured. Ferlan Mendy is injured. David Alaba is injured. Kamavinga is injured. Kylian Mbappé is currently injured.

23:16Who knows if he's going to be available for this game? Same with Dean Housen as well. So that is a huge amount of important players who aren't available or are major doubts for this match. Up against an Alaves side who have the second best defensive record in the division, Atletico Madrid were held to a draw at Alaves earlier on this season. Alaves don't really have any injury problems. They've got a big, bustling centre-forward in Lucas Boyer, who is going to try and cause problems. I think they can, Sid. I think they can cause well Madrid problems here. And I can see it again. I can see a tight game.

23:57I can see Alaves scoring, even though they don't have a particularly good scoring record. and it's going to be an awkward evening. An awkward evening for Real Madrid. Let's see. That's the prediction. Right, I think we'll leave it there. No need to dwell on the Monday night game, which is obviously the big one, which is Raya against Real Betis at Vallecas. But shout out to Raya, who won last night in the Conference League. Magnificent win in Poland. That Patrick Spina goal. I'd love to think he meant it. I don't believe for a minute he did. One million percent across, which found his way into the near post and gave Raya a big win.

24:30Let's see how they... cope with the visit of betis to uh vallecas uh that's it for today's preview pod i'm gonna see you sydney and al in a couple of hours time because we've got the tsp christmas lunch oh yes in a few hours we're gonna go and eat a delicious aromatic navaran sausage and hunks of lightly seared basque meat looking forward to that now you put it like that fantastic um so yeah i think I think the hunk of seared meat is probably you, Kittre. Play your cards, right? Okay, let's leave it there. Thanks very much for listening. We'll be back on Monday to discuss what's happened at the weekend.