Matchday 29 Preview

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1:33Hello everyone, welcome to this week's TSFP Friday Preview Pod. I'm Phil Kitramelidis, Sid Lowe is with me as ever to look ahead to what's coming up on Match Day 29 in La Liga EA Sports. Hello Sydney. Good morning Philip, how are you? Below average, how are you? Not too bad, yeah. I'm disappointed that you're below average, you didn't score a hat-trick this week. No, my Friday morning seven-to-side football was deeply unsuccessful. But there was a reason because I was absolutely knackered because I had a late night and didn't sleep very well because I was watching the mighty Raya Vallecano lose 1-0 gloriously to the seventh-best team in Turkey and still make it through on aggregate to the quarterfinals of the Conference League.

2:14I've been looking at flights to see if I can get to Athens in a not horrifically expensive way. That seems almost impossible. Ah, what a pity. I'm going to have to buy the bullet and spend a ridiculous amount of money going to Athens.

2:26Phil Kitromilides:Do none of the budget airlines go to Athens from Madrid? Don't they all just hike the prices? If they know that there's a game on... What about going to London and then getting a flight from London? Man, no, I'm not doing that. That's like six hours. That's long. But yeah, anyway, the main thing is that Raya made it through, as did all of the Spanish teams, Sid, in European action this week.

3:00and so on all right all right yeah um fetish thrashing by as i think predicted uh on the bonus podcast and also i think we predicted that uh selta would make it through against lyon which they did very impressively you said all three yeah yeah yeah yeah so um there we go six out of six uh lovely stuff back to domestic issues then and we've got match day 29 coming up uh this weekend it starts on friday night uh we'll get to the predictions in just a second sid you got six out of ten last week yeah and i i i i'm glad obviously that one of them i did got wrong because i didn't think that

3:37Phil Kitromilides:obietta would win so i was very happy about that and i was more confident about raya on the monday night which would have rounded up to seven than you were and i was wrong and you were correct although one of them I've got a point at you and me and Al mentioned this I think on our internal communications channel i.e. WhatsApp, there was one of them where you talked me out of a result and we got it wrong as a result I managed, you said draw and I told you to go for Celta and it ended up as a draw so there we go most disappointed anyway never mind, that's good, it's a collaborative effort here we go So you're on an upward turn in terms of your upward curve, in terms of your predictions.

4:19Friday night, decent looking game this. I'm commentating Villarreal against Royal Sociedad. Should be a good one, Sid. What's your prediction for this?

4:27Phil Kitromilides:It is a decent one, this. And actually, I think it's a very, very difficult one to predict. Now, on the face of it, Villarreal at home, they get good results. But they don't get good results against particularly good teams, for the most part, this season. Well, they've lost the three biggest teams at home. I believe that's right, isn't it? They lost to Real Madrid. They lost to... They lost to Barcelona. I don't think they've lost to Atletico Madrid. Sorry, they lost to Atletico away, not at home. Yes, that's true. They lost to Atletico away, not at home. Their record at home is 11 wins, one draw against Betis and two defeats against Madrid and Barca.

4:59That's it. Yeah. So let's have a look at that. That's basically the stronger teams

5:03Phil Kitromilides:have got results out of them. And so here's the question. Are we counting Real Sociedad as one of the stronger teams? Obviously not as strong as Villarreal, but very definitely on an upward trajectory. Very definitely as well, the kind of team that I think makes it quite difficult to judge what Villarreal will do because we've talked endlessly about the clarity of Villarreal's approach, how much they like to run counterattacks. And actually, Real Sociedad, who I think are a very adaptable team, quite like, excuse me, quite like to do that as well. And so at the risk of kind of going to the, let's kind of go to the comedy thing of two teams that quite like to counterattack, in the end, they sort of leave the ball in the middle and go, you attack us.

5:39Phil Kitromilides:No, you attack us. No, after you, sir. No, I insist. I think there might be a bit of that. Ultimately, though, I think Villarreal, I'm going to go for a home win. I'm going to go for a home win, but I can see a draw in this. We haven't discussed what the parameters are for these predictions. Are you allowed to just say, I don't know? Or do I have to force you to get a prediction? I think you have to force me, don't we? Because if I say I don't know, I can't possibly do that. I might as well take a one in three guess, even if I have absolutely no idea. It would be quite funny to one week just say, no, don't know any of them, sod it.

6:11Phil Kitromilides:I have no idea what's going to happen. Yeah. Alice saying you must predict or we'll call Thumper. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Thumper being Sid's rabbit, who is very close to replacing Sid. There are some massive, massive games at the bottom of the table on Saturday. Not least Elche against Mallorca, which kicks things off at the Martinez Valero. It is 17th against 18th. Yeah. And it's May. No, it's not actually. It's 18th against 16th because Mallorca climbed above Alaves with that win last weekend. Oh, right. Yes. But they're level on points with Alaves. So there's really no difference. I mean, you know, 21st of December was the last time that Elche won.

6:56Phil Kitromilides:What is it? 12 games since then? 11 games since then? In theory, this is quite an easy call, except that Mallorca are not a particularly easy call. What's an easy call? Well, it's an easy call that Elche don't win. Mallorca don't really win either, although they did win last weekend against Espanyol. I thought they were very, very fortunate. There's a slightly bizarre decision, although I have tried to explain why I think it happened. We did this on the podcast on Monday that allowed them to get the equalising goal. Then Samu Costa scores a winner at the end. They were a team that want more of the possession.

7:30Phil Kitromilides:Shall we do a little bit of kind of tactical analysis of Mallorca? Very, very short-termist, this I admit. And maybe a bit reductionist. But I was very struck by, after the first game, when they, essentially, Pablo Torre is the key to the biggest change that they're doing. So here's a guy who plays the number 10 and he plays behind two strikers, which, of course, New York haven't done all year. It's been one striker in Maurici and then players playing wide. And Matteo Josef has played quite a bit, but usually wide. Now he's playing up front with Pablo Torre behind. Now, after the first game, Demichelis talked about wanting them to enjoy it, wanting them to have possession, wanting them to be a better team with the ball.

8:06Phil Kitromilides:and in theory they sort of were and in theory in the last game they sort of were as well but there was a really obvious flaw I thought and I always say this knowing that a manager knows a million times more than me but it seemed to me there was a really obvious flaw with what was happening because by playing one man behind two forwards I thought Mallorca had huge holes on either side of midfield so it was four two one two basically and in the space either side of the two and behind the one, if you sort of mean, the other side, and obviously last week it was Espanyol, but it doesn't need to be Espanyol, were having so much room to go beyond them, to go into that space.

8:47Phil Kitromilides:And in particular, Ty Dolan was causing them problems. And then until they went down to 10 men, I thought Espanyol were the better side even last week. Elche are not necessarily made to run through that particular space, but I think they can. They're not an up and run at U team generally. So I'm going for Elche to win for the first time since December. Wow. OK. Big call from Sydney and some really quite in-depth analysis and explanation why he thinks this is going to be... This is where Demichelis gets rid of that formation and doesn't even play that way now. Yes. Well, we'll see. OK, so you're going for a home win there.

9:27What about Espanol against Getafe? One for the purists. Yes, purist. Is that how you spell sadist? Sorry, masochist. I always say that with every head of the head.

9:40Phil Kitromilides:But these are two teams that are not amazing to watch. I think... OK, so how do we judge this? Now, given that Espanyol... What did I say? It was the 21st of December since Elche have won. It's the 22nd of December since Espanyol did the following day against Atleti Bilbao. So in basically the same position. But I actually think that Manolo González is right. When last week, before the Mallorca game, he said, I've seen the Espanyol for the first part of the season in the last couple of games. They, I think, was it 25 shots against Oviedo? And they'd created chances in whichever the game, the other game was of the two that he was talking about.

10:20Phil Kitromilides:I think it was Elche, was it? 2-2 draw Elche, I think it was. And, you know, there were bits of what they do well, where you're starting to see again, but still not winning.

10:32Phil Kitromilides:I don't know what to say, Phil. I think this is... Hetafe away win. Yeah, I think there's a very strong chance of that. I also think there's a strong chance of a 1-1 or a 0-0 draw. Hetafe away draw. I'm going with you. Hetafe away win. Yeah, I'm going with you. Hetafe away win. You're doing it, yeah? Yeah. You're doing it. Wow. Wow. Okay. You see how I was trying to fade interest and excitement in that. Wow. You could not give a play. I couldn't do it. I'm sorry. I'm not that interested in Espanyol Getafe, but I know some of you will be, which is why we do this. I'm very interested in Levante Oviedo because I'm commentating it and also with bottom against second bottom.

11:12It is, Sid. A few weeks ago, you had the World Cup final, which Guillermo Armada said was one of your very important games, which actually won, didn't you? We won it. So we are currently world champions.

11:21Phil Kitromilides:So a bit of respect for the world champions, please. That's how it works. what's this? What's bigger than the World Cup final? Is this like the I mean nothing's bigger than the World Cup final is this like I don't know what this is it's the final of the interplanetary competition in which the World Cup winners play against the winners of the Mars planetary title or some shit like that I don't know I'm talking bollocks now as you can tell

11:51Phil Kitromilides:oh man I mean Oviedo's win last week we felt was huge and it actually did give us a chance or it felt like it gave us a chance because you're looking at it and thinking, actually, it's potentially only five points, but then Mallorca went and won. So Oviedo are currently five points off Elche, but seven off Alaves and Mallorca. So I actually think the opportunity that was dangled in front of us is maybe not so much of one. Although, of course, Mallorca and Elche playing each other means at least someone drops points. At least someone does. The thing is, of course, that Levante will be looking at it exactly the same way.

12:24Phil Kitromilides:And so I just wonder, is this going to be one of these games that's actually going to be amazingly open? Because no one can settle at any point. Or is it going to be the opposite? They're going to be so shit scared that they close off. I actually think that Levante have made a fair bit happen in their recent games. And I don't think they're terrible at the moment. I really don't. It might be amazingly awful. I think it might be, but I don't think they're that terrible at the moment. Bear in mind, they haven't lost in three, isn't it? They beat Alaves and they drew at Raya. I can't remember what the other one was.

12:54Phil Kitromilides:But anyway, they haven't lost in three.

12:59Phil Kitromilides:I'm going to go with my head. I would love to say that Oviedo will get something. Levanti are going to win this. Just say Oviedo, Sid. Look, the universe needs positive stuff from you for Oviedo. Okay, let me... Give me this negative energy, please. All right, let's do something that I've told you many times before. That sometimes I don't gamble very often. And when I gamble, it tends to be as an insurance. Gamble against what you want that way. It's a bit like, you know, it's like house insurance. You don't want someone to rob your house. But if they do, at least someone gives you some money.

13:31Phil Kitromilides:So gamble against what you want. Home win, Levante. Okay. All right. Fair enough. Well argued. Ossesuna against Girona. I've actually really enjoyed watching Girona last week. Me too. They're playing really good football. Yeah. He was back last week and he was brilliant against Athletic Club. Joel Roca is replacing Brian Hill very well. that Hugo Rincón at right back took it really well didn't he very nice they're a good team Girona it's 11th against 12th obviously they're looking behind them rather than looking up but they're 8 points above the relegation zone now and only 4 points off potentially a European place that's the thing I think maybe this is the moment where they stop looking behind them and they do start thinking I wonder if we can catch the teams in front of it I'm just bringing up the table now They're on 34 points.

14:23Phil Kitromilides:They've got Atletic and Getafe within one point. They've got Espanyol within three points. So you think, and really and truly, and then it's Real Sofilaad, and really and truly, in terms of the trending of teams, that feels right now, doesn't it? That Girona challenge for eighth place. That Espanyol probably drop away. That Getafe probably don't quite get there. That Atletic Bilbao, well, who knows what Atletic Bilbao are going to do? Because they're... It's true, eighth can get into Europe. Eight will probably get into Europe this time around, yeah. Now, obviously, there's likely to be a Copa del Rey place.

14:54Phil Kitromilides:Well, there is a Copa del Rey place that goes to either Atletico or Rauz-Sotel. Atletico probably won't need it in Europe because they'll go into the Champions League. Rauz-Sotel might not need it in terms of position, but it could open up another one in the league. So, yeah, E3 is likely to be a European position, maybe even more. It's not impossible that Spain get even more. What do you mean it's not impossible that Spain get even more? Well, if a Spanish team wins the Europa League, If a Spanish team wins Europa League that doesn't finish in European place, that's an extra space. So if Celta or Betis don't finish in a European place and win the Europa League.

15:29Phil Kitromilides:Then, well, Ryo. Do Ryo get in Europe if they win the... The Conference League doesn't get a place, I don't think, does it? Or does it? Conference League winner, do they get a place again? In the Europa League, yeah. Do they? Right, well, there you go then. So I think... I'm trying to work out the combinations of this. I think it's not impossible that Spain... I mean, it's very, very, very unlikely. I think it's not impossible because Spain can have 10 European teams each year. Oh, my God. That'd be fun, wouldn't it, Sid? You'd love that. And they all play against English teams. It's got to do a match report on every game.

16:02Oh, my word. Yeah. Anyway, sorry, where were we?

16:05Phil Kitromilides:What we were talking about. Osasuna Girona. I'm going to... Mind you, I like Osasuna as well. And you know what? You know, Osasuna will actually be looking at this and thinking there's half a chance we get in Europe. It's in Pamplona. I'm going to... 2-2 draw. It's going to be fun. 2-2 draw. Nice. Okay. Get in the game with the college-branded Venmo debit card. Wreck your team with every tap and earn up to 5 % cash back with Venmo Stash, a new rewards program from Venmo. No monthly fee, no minimum balance. Just school pride and spending power. Get in the game and sign up for the Venmo debit card at Venmo.com slash college card.

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17:45And then Saturday night is the latest installment of the We Used To Be Good But We're Not At All Anymore derby between Sevilla and Valencia.

17:55Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, and they're really not anymore, but they're not quite as bad as they were earlier in the season. They're definitely not going down anymore, either of them. And I think they can just sort of play. so what's the I don't know which way round is this going to go if they can just kind of play it's in Seville not in Valencia home win home win okay they've not got a good home record no they haven't they have not at all I haven't got the numbers in front of me I might be wrong you tell me I don't think Valencia are a great away though okay well I mean yes I can readily believe that then Barcelona hosting Rayo, Barca of course the only team with a 100 % record at home in La Liga this season they've won every single game in the three different stadiums they've played as the home side this season Rayo will have had I mean we're talking about 60 hours I think between games they played Thursday night obviously, did I mention made it through to the quarter finals?

18:57Did you mention?