Matchday 30 Preview

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1:38Hello everyone and welcome to the TSFP Friday Preview. I'm Phil Kittromelidis. I'm here with Sid Lowe to look ahead to what's coming up this match day in La Liga EA Sports. Hello, Sidney. Good morning, Philip. Good morning, my friend. Lots of games for us to go through and look ahead to. and get your all-important previews for. So let's start, shall we, in the Spanish capital. Friday night, I will be there this evening for Rayo Vallecano against Elche. Big, big, big, huge, massive monster game at the bottom of the table, Sid. I'm excited. I'm nervous. I am a little bit emotionally dubious as to what to expect from this game.

2:16Rayo will probably dominate, end up not scoring, and Elche will get a result. That's my feeling from a negative Ryo fan perspective. Tell me. Tell me why that's not going to happen.

2:26Phil Kitromilides:Are you still worried? Yeah. Do you still feel like Ryo could potentially be dragged into relegation? Of course. OK. I'm here to tell you that won't happen. We can't score goals, Sid. We cannot score goals. We're very good in other aspects of the game. We can't score. Yeah. I also, however, I'm here to give you a slightly negative view on your analysis of the game in terms of Ryo will dominate. That's not really the way that Elche allow games to play out or tend to allow games to play out. In terms of chances created, I would. Right, now this is very important because actually, Raio are not a team that want a huge amount of possession in order to create chances.

3:01Phil Kitromilides:They're not quite as direct as they were. I mean, you know, I don't need to tell you this because you're watching them every week, but our listeners are not quite as direct as they were under Andoni and Ardo, but they still make things happen. They still dub off the wins. I saw an amazing statistic the other day about the number of take-ons in Europe's top five leagues. And as you can probably imagine, Laminia Mar, it was amazing actually how far ahead Laminia Mar was. But the only non-attacking player in there... Is Andre Rathu, my friend. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So there you go. Anyway, all of that said, I'm going for a home win.

3:34Phil Kitromilides:Nice. Elche did actually win at last. They did. Last time round. And they really, really needed it. That said, the results didn't necessarily go their way because other teams down the bottom also picked up points. And Elche away. I just, yeah, I'm going right by a can all the way on this. Okay. Home win. Thank you, Sid. Will you be there? No. I won't because I'll be travelling back on Saturday in time to be back for Atletico against Barcelona. I won't be there for tonight, I'm afraid. Okay. That's all right. Sydney's down on the East Coast near Valencia, soaking up the sun. Semana Santa. We talked about it over at patreon.com forward slash TSFP for subscribers to the TSFP diary.

4:16we've been explaining what we've been doing this Semana Santa so make sure you come and join us we've also done Q &A pods and bonus pods this week so while the rest of Spain might be on holiday we have not been well we have we sort of have

4:28Phil Kitromilides:yeah not in time the next game is Real Sociedad against Levante the early kick-off on Saturday I think I'm actually commentating this Sid I should be a little bit more sure than I am but I'm pretty sure pretty sure I'm commentating this one I hope you've yeah I hope you've prepared the right teams to the right game. I hope you don't turn up and think, oh, actually, I was actually doing Atletico Barcelona, so I'll just tell you about them anyway. I am also doing Atletico Barcelona. Oh, you're also doing that? Okay, all right. I'll let you into a little secret. That's where the bulk of my preparation has gone.

5:01But I will subsequently turn my attention to Real Sociedad. Against Levante, obviously, Real Sociedad, who can still, because fifth place is pretty open, they can still mathematically get the Champions League. They can still very certainly get into the Europa League. And they've also got the Coppedale-Rey final to look forward to. Levante absolutely desperate for a win to move towards safety.

5:20Phil Kitromilides:And what's that phrase in Basque that Matarazzo has used a couple of times? Politiki, politiki, which is, you know, piano, piano, softly, softly, slowly does it. In other words, we don't want to shout about this. We don't want to make a noise. We want to go step by step. But they are thinking what you've just been saying. They are thinking that that fifth place is not impossible. That fifth place is within reach. Now, obviously, there's a slight problem, which is, of course, it's natural that Copa del Rey takes their focus. And, of course, some of their preparation, even in these league games, is geared towards getting them ready for the Copa del Rey final, doing some of the things that, in theory, will help in the Copa del Rey final.

5:58Phil Kitromilides:But they are starting to look at this and look at their run and think that fifth place possibly is available to us. And this is a home win. Levante, who, of course, beat Oviedo, deservedly so in the last round of games, despite the fact that Oviedo twice put themselves in a position where they could have got something from the game and possibly, well, not possibly, definitely, although I must admit, live, I didn't realise, you told me, Levante probably should have been down to 10 men after a pretty bad challenge on the back of, I think it was Thiago Fernandes, wasn't it, on the back of Thiago Fernandes' calf.

6:32Phil Kitromilides:But while I do think Levante are much improved, and by the way, SB has been absolutely fantastic league in recent weeks. And he was brilliant against Oviedo, missed one really amazing chance, which denied him a hat-trick. But I still think this is a home win. Roussoth did add a slight doubt in my mind about the role of the international players who've been on international duty. That shouldn't really have a huge impact upon them. But I think they went into training with only seven players on the first day of the international break. But that shouldn't be too much of a problem. Roussoth did a home win.

7:08Then after that, we've got Mallorca against Real Madrid. Obviously, Real Madrid in the title race, still in the title race after that dramatic Madrid derby victory before the international break. And if they win here, they would cut the gap to Barcelona to just one point. They do have the Champions League quarterfinal first leg with Bayern Munich on the Tuesday, Sid, up against a Mallorca side with a new man in charge who has brought a new energy to the team.

7:36Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, and a new style. And it was very, very striking. And this, by the way, completely contradicts something that I said to you the other day. Very striking to hear Maurici basically say, I mean, I'm paraphrasing now, but I'm not far off this being a verbatim quote. At least we're trying to play football now. You know, we're not lumping up to the big guy, the big guy, of course, being me, which is why I say it contradicts what I said, because there's a bit of me that wonders if actually this style may not suit Maurici. but you know they're slower build up because albeit he might feel like he's enjoying this more I wonder if he'll get less of the ball in the kind of positions where he can be really impactful or maybe the alternative and this is certainly what he thinks at the moment it's nice to have players around you players to play off players to play with but it was striking that because actually most of the Mallorca players I think have been quite keen to not destroy Arrasate I think there's been very clear that there's a reasonable relationship there but Maurici has gone the other way completely that said it's Real Madrid they're not going to win a way win.

8:35OK, that was quite simple. Real Madrid after an international break with a big Champions League game coming up as well.

8:41Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, but I think Real Madrid... Yeah, I mean, those things are absolutely true. And I'm not denying them. And those are the kind of things which do occasionally mean that Real Madrid get surprisingly poor results away from home against teams that they maybe should do better against. And this may not necessarily be easy. But I don't know about you, But I, you know, maybe this is the response of someone who's been watching Spanish football for a long time and always has an amazing amount of faith in Real Madrid to do things that they really shouldn't be able to do, to win titles that are supposedly well beyond them.

9:14Phil Kitromilides:But I just wonder about the sort of the emotional impact. I know this sounds silly, but of Rafinha getting injured and Real Madrid looking at the fixtures and thinking, do you know what? We're there. We're there now. I think they're going to win the league. Oh, my goodness. OK. All right. I mean, that's the first time you've said it on Match Play 30, I think. Yeah. I think they're going to win the league. All right. All right. We'll see. We'll see where they are after this game against Mallorca. After that, you've got Betis against Espanyol. Betis. For all of the doubts about Betis, for all the fact that they're slightly weird, they keep sort of...

9:51Phil Kitromilides:You think they're just about to start getting on a bit of a run and it doesn't quite happen. the European football has had an impact. Let's see how much of an impact international football has on them on the return from that, which in theory on them, the impact will be greater than it is for Espanyol. Although I must confess, I haven't in front of me got the numbers as to how many internationals each team has got. Espanyol will probably only have three, four internationals, I guess, off the top of my head. Betis may not have very many more than that, actually, in truth. I'm trying to think who theirs would be now.

10:21Phil Kitromilides:I still think Betis at home Betis Betis OK Yeah I tend to agree with you and if Espanyol were to lose another game they'd start to be in trouble They've got to start worrying yes they have got to start worrying Yet to win in 2026 still They were pretty unlucky against Mallorca and from their point I say unlucky their manager says robbed but there you go Then the big one this weekend is Atletico Madrid against Barcelona commentating this, obviously it means a lot more to Barcelona than it does to Atletico Madrid, these two meeting on Wednesday in the Champions League as well. Yeah, and I'm conscious of the fact that Atletico Madrid's last game was against Real Madrid and we're in a similar situation.

11:05Phil Kitromilides:It means more to Real Madrid than Atletico Madrid. And I think my argument then was that because it means more, just that little extra bit and the fact that it's at the Bernabeu means that Real Madrid win. They did win, it was very tight, They might not have won it, but they did win it. And I think that just as last week, Barcelona looked at it and thought, this is an opportunity for us at the hands of Atletico Madrid. They can do us a favour. I think Real Madrid now look at this and think it's an opportunity for them this time around. The difference being, of course, this is at the Metropolitano.

11:35Phil Kitromilides:Where? Tell me the stats, Philip. I think they've only dropped points once all season. And that was the draw with Elche in the season, where they're very, very strong. And the first home game. Yeah, very, very strong at home.

11:50Anyway, a long time ago.

11:51Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, yeah, a long time ago. I really don't know where to go with this. I feel like this is a draw. But I don't know. I kind of want to... I sort of don't want to ignore the analysis that I gave last time, which is it matters that little bit more. And it matters that little bit more for Barcelona than it does for Atletico. But I think it's slightly different to the Madrid derby because it's at home for Atletico this time.

12:21Phil Kitromilides:And because they play each other. Now, we discussed this when we talked about Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey. And they play each other in Europe. And I think that does play a part. And I just wonder if this is a game that it feels like... This is a game from Atletico Madrid's point of view. You know what? It's best for them not to see things. It's best for them not to know. We don't need to win this. we just whereas Barcelona I'm going I'm going for a draw Phil that was a long way around just to say draw and sit on the fence wasn't it two things Sydney two things very very quickly Real Betis have won at the Metropolitano as well so it wasn't oh they did didn't they they did they did they did and also do you want the stats with Barcelona without Rafinha this season Yes, please, because it's very poor, isn't it?

13:14They've lost seven games this season. He hasn't started six of those. The only game that he started and they lost was the game against Girona. Yeah. I think it's huge. When he doesn't start, they lose.

13:28Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, huge. And as I say, this is the beginning of me saying, where am I going to win the league? Yes. If Barcelona get through this, I think it will feel like a really big deal, actually. I think it will feel like a big deal for them if they get through this. What is your prediction, my friend? A draw. A draw. Oh, my goodness. That would really put the cat amongst the La Liga pigeons, Sid. It really would. It would. It would put the gato amongst the palomas. Yes. Right. Sunday, 2pm, Coliseum, Getafe against Athletic Club. I really hope you're going to be there, Sid. I might be.

14:13Phil Kitromilides:Getafe Of course They're flying They're unstoppable Imagine if they get the European position They're going to get the Champions League mate That would be so good I mean it would be awful But it would be great Home win I don't even feel the need To explain this one It's just Getafe in it They're going to do it. Valencia against Celta is after that. How many discounts does USAA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount. Safe driver discount. New vehicle discount. Storage discount. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com slash auto discounts.

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15:58Phil Kitromilides:Yeah, this is... A much improved Valencia against the Celtic side with a good away record. You see, a couple of weeks ago, I'd have looked at Valencia's recent results and their improvement, and I would have said I'm not convinced by them. I would have said that they've been a little bit lucky. They've kind of got away with it. There's been some late goals, some slightly ropey late penalties. They're not all that good. But you know what? The balance over the last three or four weeks, so a couple of them I could have taken with a pinch of salt, but the balance over the last three or four weeks is I think they're all right now.

16:28Phil Kitromilides:so I'm going home win okay Celta have European football obviously they do will you be going for a home win for Oviedo against Sevilla first game in charge of Sevilla for Luis Garcia Plaza I mean I'd love to say yes there's a bit of me that thinks that maybe it's cruelty says yes but it still won't be enough and you'll believe there's a bit of hope for a couple of weeks then you'll get beat next week and then it'll be over again. Yes. I don't think it's impossible. I genuinely don't think it's impossible. I think Oviedo haven't been terrible at home. I think they are an OK-ish team. I do feel like, and this is not the first time I've said this, I realised this and then you sort of cling on to a bit of hope again.

17:13Phil Kitromilides:I do feel like it's done now and everyone knows it's done. I'm going for a draw. OK. I think that's the problem now with Oviedo. I think it's the motivation and the morale. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And then the thing is, you win one and you think maybe, but, you know, as I say, this is what made the Levante game, you know, because you come into the Levante game thinking, you've got a chance now. You go and win at Levante, pirate rival, and you've got El Che play Mallorca the same weekend. And as it turned out, not only did Oviedo get beat, but the other results didn't go particularly well either. Yeah.

17:45Okay, so a draw there. Alames against Osasuna, a Basque-ish derby.

17:52Yeah. Yeah. Tough one.

17:55Phil Kitromilides:draw where's the rabbit when you need it yeah draw if draw feels like a logical fence sitting place to go with this doesn't it um yeah draw draw okay and monday night football is girona against the via real commentating this one as well who are actually quite good um not lost last time at osasuna It did. And VRL. VRL were amazing the last game. They were 3-0 up inside, what was it, 25 minutes, having had like 25 % of the possession. It was classic. And yet you couldn't say they didn't deserve it because it felt like this is a plan perfectly executed. It didn't feel like this is a fluke. Just like, no, this is what they do.

18:41I did their last away game, which was at Alaves, when they were just rubbish. I mean, just awful. didn't even you know didn't do anything with the ball so um i wonder how they're going to set up against the girona side who are going to have loads of the ball um yeah and they're going to

18:56Phil Kitromilides:think that they might not having the ball against your owner i think um birrell don't want the ball sid they're 17th they're 17th in terms of possession 17th they don't want the ball they want you to bring it to them and then they want you to lose it just just in the right place and then they go bang free passes free players in really quick transitional runs, interchanging as they set off. I still think Girona are quite good. I'm going home win. I think it's only Oviedo have a lower percentage of their possession in the opponent's half than Villarreal. So even when they've got the ball, they don't really have it in the opponent's half.