Matchday 31 Preview

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1:23Hi everybody, welcome to this week's edition of The Preview Podcast. it's me Alex Kirkland with Sid Lowe this morning Kittro couldn't be with us hello Sid how are you

1:30Alex Kirkland:good morning Al how are you I'm all right thank you I'm good are you ready to look forward to match day 31 yes which is I was just looking at the diary which after match day 31 we have match day 33 then we have match day 32 good work as usual Spanish football it's not helpful is it it's the honestly it's the kind of thing that we really do not need at this stage in the season this kind of confusion and look Sid you've got a busy day you've got some writing to do let's crack on with this podcast last week by the way you only got five out of ten predictions right and that was after a late rally which involved the last two being correct do you know what it really was the middle part was i got the first two right i thought oh here we go and i got only one of the next whatever it was five or six and yeah i got the last two right and just about rescued myself i'm on the brink of official thumper replacement honestly the rabbit was warming up The rabbit was doing a stretch in the corner, doing little star runs up and down the touchline, going, here we go.

2:28No, Thunberg has been benched once again. OK, let's kick off with a game at the Bernabeu tonight, Sid. You'll be there, I presume. I'll be there as well. Real Madrid against Girona. These Friday night Real Madrid games, I've got to say, it does free up my weekend quite a bit. Not so much for you and Kittre, because you do your commentary, but for me, I quite like it.

2:49Alex Kirkland:It gets it out of the way. Do you know what? I must confess the same thing. So this weekend, I've got two games that I have to be at. Now, obviously, I'll be watching lots of others. And they are the Friday night game and the Sunday night game. And I did sort of look at the hole in the middle and think, wow, this is amazing. What is going on here? Obviously, this is done to try and give Real Madrid a little bit of extra time for the Champions League. Now, a Saturday would have been fine. But La Liga looked at it and thought that, obviously, they couldn't do this with Barcelona and Atletico. Put them on a Friday because they played the Champions League game on a Wednesday.

3:19Alex Kirkland:so they couldn't start before the Saturday. So that's why it's Real Madrid, not them. Although I do understand why the other two teams are looking at this and thinking, hang on, why do Real Madrid keep getting this and not us? Real Madrid are also going on a Friday in, what is it, three weeks' time, is it, for what would be a potential semi-final? Two weeks' time, I think. Two weeks' time. If they don't get there, it wouldn't be enormously surprising if those kick-off times changed. Let's hope not, if only because of the mess that it creates for fans, not because of anything to do with the teams themselves.

3:47Alex Kirkland:So here's the question, I suppose, for this game. is all about whether or not there's a rotation or a resting or a recovery mindset here. Now, I think the fact that they've got four games, sorry, four days until the Champions League game means that the need to rest players who are just a little bit fatigued isn't there. A player with a risk is a different issue. One thing we know is that Charmany will play because he won't play in the Champions League and you would play him anyway. I think that there will only be a couple of changes because I guess in part, the question mark is that Real Madrid can't afford to lose if they're going to have any chance to win the league.

4:21Alex Kirkland:The question is whether somewhere in the back of their mind they've already decided that the league has gone. Even if it's not a conscious decision to say, okay, we can forget it. The priority is the Champions League. But then here comes the next thing. Is the priority of the Champions League? Does it switch back to being the league given the poor result in the first leg against Bayern? I think the answer to that is no. I think they still think there's a chance of coming back against Bayern Munich. So I expect to see some changes tonight, but maybe not loads. I think probably only a couple. I wonder whether there will be a temptation to try a couple of things before that Bayern Munich game.

4:57Alex Kirkland:I don't know whether, for example, if you look at this from their point of view, do you think to yourself, we'd give Mendy some minutes? Do you even start Mendy to try and get him in place in time for the Bayern Munich game? Well, let me interrupt you right there, Sid, because I was listening to Alvaro Arbeloa speaking yesterday in his pre-match news conference, and he confirmed that both Edna Militao and Jude Bellingham will start. He said that Mendy will get some minutes. Right, good. So we'll almost guarantee that Mendy comes off the bench. Yeah, the Militao one, I think, obviously, is also...

5:29Alex Kirkland:I mean, it's focused on the fact that Militao is their best defender. Obviously, that's the first thing. I also think it's focused on trying to give him as many minutes as possible for the Champions League game. Now, I don't think he'll play all 90 tonight, but he might if he looks okay. So I think if Militao starts, that gives you the chance to rest probably Rudiger, I would say. So you would imagine Militao with Housen, wouldn't you, at the back. And Bellingham, I suppose, the question mark there is, does he maintain his structure? Does he try and keep it as a four across midfield? So Bellingham nominally plays on the left, but is kind of cutting inside.

6:03Alex Kirkland:Valverde plays on the right. And Choumen, he plays with one other. And then the question then is, does he play with Thiago? or do you try someone who might play in central midfield in midweek and therefore does he play with Kamavinga? My guess, I don't know about you, is that Kamavinga starts. Yeah, yeah, I feel like Kamavinga might start. You say that obviously Chiumeni starts because he can't play in midweek. There might also be a temptation there to sort of do a trial run of what the midfield might have to be without Chiumeni for the... Yeah, that's a good point actually and I think you might be right.

6:34Alex Kirkland:I think there is a temptation to do that and my initial thought, yeah, absolutely was Germany starts for sure. But you're right that there may be a temptation there because whatever the central midfield partnership is in Munich, it's one that hasn't normally played. And so you've got, I guess you've got, I think you've got quite a lot of choices and I think none of those choices entirely convince you. So you've got a combination of Thiago, Camavinga, Bellingham, Valverde in the centre rather than the right. And is that it? I think that probably is it. And I suppose Goula, are we calling Goula a central midfielder?

7:07Alex Kirkland:I'm not really sure what we're calling Goula. And so you've got five players there for a two-man partnership or possibly a two-man plus another partnership. And I don't know. I don't know that any of those really convince. Anyway, we're not here. Yeah, I was going to say, we're not here to preview, in fairness. We're not here to preview this game. Sorry, the midweek game. We're here to preview this game. All of these games. And we should mention Girona, who have been in really good form. got a win in their last game, a 1-0 win against Villarreal. Yes, and they are playing very well. The quality of their football I think has been pretty good over recent weeks.

7:45Alex Kirkland:I think it's really quite significant that they well, I was going to say that they defended Mitchell. I'm not sure that's quite the way I would put it. And while their form in recent weeks has been good, it's also been a little bit spotty. So if you go back, obviously, let's start... Or two weeks ago, they lost. Yeah, well, I was going to go back, I was going to go back six weeks and say they start this little run or seven weeks and they start this little run with a defeat against Oviedo. Then there's a draw and a win and then a draw again, I think, against Sevilla and they draw with Alaves. They lose to Celta Vigo, but they've been playing better and they've been losing these games narrowly.

8:22Alex Kirkland:And I think there's a quality about them and an ability to keep the ball and move the ball, which I think has caused Real Madrid problems. If you do that with caution, I think the teams that get the best results against Real Madrid are the teams that keep the ball well, are good footballing teams, but aren't opening themselves up enormously. And I think that sort of fits with Girona. My doubt is about that opening themselves up bit. Yeah. Anyway, we've spent a long time talking about this Friday night game. Sorry, yes. Really the game we should talk the least about, because a lot of listeners might have...

8:55That's true. ...before the game's been played. A prediction, Sid, hit me.

8:58Alex Kirkland:But it does give them the chance to laugh at us because they listen to this when the game's already happened. Say, look how wrong these guys were. Bring back the rabbits. Prediction, Real Madrid to win narrowly. Yeah, it's always Real Madrid to win at home, isn't it? Pretty much. I think so, despite the doubts about them. Yes, yes. OK, Saturday kicks off with L 'Areal against Alavesic. L 'Areal against Alavesic. Now, I think L 'Areal are a good team. Now, I think when they get beat, they sort of properly get beat. And, you know, they conceded four against Real Madrid. Their last three defeats, you know, you look at the...

9:34Alex Kirkland:I say their last three defeats as if there's been three... That's their only three defeats since going... Well, basically since Matarazzo took over. So going back all the way to December. Actually, funny enough, they didn't lose the game before Matarazzo when they had interim managers. So since then, Matarazzo has only lost three times. Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal. And those are three games you can lose. and he said, I thought it was very interesting, his reaction to the Villarreal game. And I think it was about trying to calm everyone down. There is a reality here. And the reality is that the Villarreal is still a much better team than us.

10:06Alex Kirkland:And we shouldn't be expecting us to compete against, well, we should be expecting to compete, but we shouldn't be expecting to win against them. They got beaten 3-1. It was relatively comfortable. And they responded to that by winning at home. I think that if you look at them, I mean, all of those, by the way, are away defeats. So they've not lost at home since Matarazzo took over. Now, that says to me very clearly, home win. Alaves, I think, I don't know what to say about Alaves. I was about to say, I feel like there's an improvement, but I don't think that's the right approach to this because I think that's a response to the natural thing of saying, oh, managerial change, things improve.

10:45Alex Kirkland:And they sort of have improved a little bit, but the managerial change wasn't done because they wanted to change it. It wasn't done because they thought they had a terrible problem, even though they'd lost, I think, three of their previous five games. It was done because their manager walked away to go to Argentina. I think the good news for them is that it suggests that Kikisensha-Forest has got through to the team. It suggests that there's something there. The last two games have been different to their previous games this season, that there have been an awful lot of goals, a 4-3 win and a 2-2 draw.

11:15Alex Kirkland:But I think, or else I throw that home, home win. Okay, good, good. Good. Yeah, I agree. I agree. Next up after that, Sid, it's Elche against Valencia. Valencia were involved in an incredible game at home, losing 3-2 to Celta last weekend. Yeah, that was one of the ones that I thought I'd got the prediction right. I pretty much signed it off and then it went very horribly wrong. I was going to say Guido Rodriguez, who I think Kiccio was saying might be the January signing of the season. There's some competition there. I was going to say... A couple of players at Getafe might have a word to say about that.

11:48Alex Kirkland:Exactly that. No, I would completely agree with Kiccio. if it wasn't for the two up front of Getafe. Otherwise, I agree. How do you see this one? How do I see this one? Do you know, I'm not entirely sure how I see this one because Valencia, I feel like Valencia massively improved, right? Yeah. But, and they are massively improved. There's no doubt about it. It was four wins in the last seven games, I think. I think that Guido has made a big difference. I think the signings, they've got signings all across the, you know, one in each line that I think have helped them. It's not just Guido Rodriguez.

12:23Alex Kirkland:But, and here's the big but for me, this is away at Elche, who I still don't think are terrible. But obviously the statistics will tell you, and this is where Kittre will jump in and say, what do you mean? They are terrible. Look at the numbers. And the numbers absolutely tell you that Elche are terrible. There is only one win since December. But there is a win since December. Admittedly, 2-1 at home against Mallorca is not necessarily like a, you know, it's nothing really special. is it? I feel like Elche will get something from this, but won't win. I'm going to go for a draw. Okay. Okay. A big game after that, Catalan derby, Barca against Espanyol, which, you know, it's always a big game, but depending on what happens with Madrid at the Bernabeu on the Friday night, could be, could be Barca potentially, well, you know, wrapping up the, wrapping up the tight race definitively really if results go their way yes now so this is where it makes it even harder to to predict how Barcelona approach this now obviously look let's start with the basics how do they approach it to win it it's a derby it will be it will be aggressive potentially nasty at times um and they will have to compete if Real Madrid were to lose you do have that mindset that says right go and go and kill it off which I think is what they had last week against atletico madrid but but i also think they have the mindset that said right well this is a free hit now so absolutely the priority is midweek now i think the priority is midweek anyway but i think the extent to which you push that priority is i think changeable now for example let's let's should we start by saying the most basic thing of all barcelona's best player with the exception of rafinha who we know is out is pedri and some would say part of the best player is just pedri anyway yeah so pedri comes off in midweek in which uh me and kittrow were discussing how we interpret um hansi flick's words because he said we need pedri and and i think kittrow took that to say well then yeah but you need him in this game don't take him off because you need him in the next one i took that to mean that was flick saying no i didn't take him off because i wanted to i want him i took him off because i had to now i think if you had to take him off in midweek against Atletico Madrid and you've got Atletico Madrid coming up again next midweek, you don't play them in this game.

14:47Alex Kirkland:Surely not, yeah. In this game in which you predict, you don't know this for sure, that it will be intense, that it might be nasty, that there's some risks to be taken. So there's the first thing. And in a way, I don't use that to talk about Pedri individually. I use that to say, this is what's on your mind when you go into a game like this. And I think that won't be the only change you make. I wouldn't be enormously surprised if he left Laminya Mahal out. except that I would be because Lamin doesn't get left out of games. And Lamin plays a lot of minutes, even when he possibly shouldn't. He won't leave Lamin, will he?

15:19Alex Kirkland:No, you see, this is what I'm saying. I don't think you do, but I think you look at this and you think, think about the last time Lamin went to the stadium. It was that Spain game. Think about the potential for reaction, the potential for a reaction then from Lamin, the potential for, if you like, that Spanish word that they use, accelerated, you know, the whole thing to be kind of, revolutionized and there to be a tension. I would be thinking very hard about it. I agree with you. I think my initial reaction is you don't leave him out. But do you? Do you? So I don't know. And I think you're right that the result of the Real Madrid game maybe conditions this.

15:59Alex Kirkland:Now, given that I've said the result of the Real Madrid game would be a Real Madrid win, shall we work on the assumption it's a Real Madrid win and that Barcelona go into this and think we have to win it? But I think there will be a couple of changes. And do you know what? Against Espanyol, who, despite their horrendous form, and they haven't won all of this year, they drew last week against Betis a 0-0 draw, which is a slightly weird one away from home. And actually, you could argue that's quite a good one. They've been beaten by Getafe. They've been beaten by Mallorca. They drew with Oviedo.

16:28Alex Kirkland:These aren't good results. They drew with Elche, the other team who, at that point, hadn't won in the whole of 2016. They got beaten by Atletico Madrid. They drew with Celta. They got beaten by Villarreal. But I do think Manolo is right, the manager, when he says the performance level has been better. I can see this being... Are you leaning towards draw? I can see... I am. And I know that's mental. And I don't understand why I'm allowing myself to do it. But yes, I'm... Do it. I'm going to say draw. Trust your heart. Go... Trust your feelings. Well, I don't even know if it's a heart. I don't know what it is because it's not heart so much as...

17:05Alex Kirkland:I'm going draw. Let's do it. You've taken off the sort of the laser guidance visor thing and you're shooting that with a star I'm Luke Skywalker almost there use the force use the force Sid okay I'm just lucky that Kittcher is not here see this is what you don't get with Kittcher you don't get this kind of Star Wars chat with Kittcher he's literally never seen it he'll be furious no one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets they go for a darn good pizza lately though the shop's been quiet so Hank decides to bring back the one dollar slice he asks co-pilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs to help him see if he can afford it.

17:41Alex Kirkland:Co-Pilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the dollar slice work. Now Hank's has a line out the door. Hank makes the pizza. Co-Pilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more at m365copilot.com slash work. K-pop Demon Hunters, Saja Boys Breakfast Meal, and Huntrix Meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi? It's not a battle. So glad the Saja Boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day. It is an honor to share. No, it's our honor. It is our larger honor. No, really, stop. You can really feel the respect in this battle.

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18:56Okay, talking of awkward games that come between Champions League legs, Atletico travel to Sevilla on Saturday night. Yeah. I mean, talk about crisis. Sevilla literally beaten by Ray Loviedo last weekend, Sid. If that isn't symptomatic of, you know, alarm bells ringing. That's pretty bad, isn't it?

19:15Alex Kirkland:And it's a third defeat in a row for Sevilla. Now, I am going to give Sevilla a little bit of a get-out-of-jail-free card here and say they had a man sent off. They went 1-0 down. They also, I think quite rightly, thought that there was a potential for a couple of red cards for Loviedo. In my view, one of them would have been harsh, but one of them might have been the right decision. One for Feddeva Vinas again, and one for Kwasi Sibo. But I was surprised, even with 10 men, because I think with 10 men you can say, don't be surprised by it, how little Sevilla offered. And with 10 men you can say, well, how could they offer very much?

19:54Alex Kirkland:And they've been put in a very difficult position. I think that's true. They have been put in a difficult position. And it's not like Oviedo then went and battered them. They didn't. but nor did Oviedo really suffer. And I still can't quite get my head around Sevilla because they're really bad. But they shouldn't really be this bad, should they? It's only one win. I think I'm right in saying it's only one win since they beat Mallorca in, when was that? Start of February. That's nine games or eight games, I think. I'll look it up, actually. I've got the list here. One, two, three, four, eight games.

20:27Alex Kirkland:Six, seven, eight games, yeah. One win in eight games. Yeah. And yet, I mean, Atletico could not care less about this game. No, right. Okay. This is such a non-priority for them. It's going to be, I mean, not even the B team. It's going to be some of those kids that we saw coming off the bench for Atleti the other week. They're going to be starting this one, aren't they? I'm just flipping through my notebook to look at my team sheet from the Atletico game last week against Barcelona. When you had Mourinho come on, where you had Vargas start, where you had Talfik play. I liked him a lot. He looked good.

21:00Alex Kirkland:I liked him as well. When you had a midfield by the final whistle, you had a midfield that was basically Vargas, who I believe is 23, and everyone else was 21 or younger, I think. And yes, everything we've just said about Real Madrid and Barcelona and will they rotate. Yeah, you're right. Let's multiply that by a million for Atletico Madrid. Breaking news, Sid. Obed Vargas is 20. Oh, well, there you go. He's even younger than I thought. Okay, so the entire midfield was 21 or younger then. Well, there you go. And I'm going to criticise whoever it was that intervened with me when I said, oh, an entire midfield of under 21.

21:40Alex Kirkland:They said, no, no, no, Vargas is 23. So I believed them. It might even have been Kittrow. Shall I blame Kittrow? It probably wasn't, but I'm going to blame Kittrow. I think we're going to see massive changes throughout this team. So, draw? No, Sevilla are going to win. Sevilla are going to win. Okay. It just means so, so, so much more, even though they're terrible. All right. Yeah, I can see it. I can see it. Let's move to Sunday, which kicks off with Osasuna against Betis, Sid. Osasuna against Betis. Is this a game that... This game that really matters for both of them, because Osasuna are only three points off Getafe and Raul Sofidad, who, of course, are in European places.

22:20Betis are only one point ahead of Celta in the race for fifth.

22:25Alex Kirkland:Exactly. So this does, well, it almost certainly will be. Yeah, I mean, it's not been confirmed yet, but we basically know that it's the Champions League. Osasuna, I think, have been really quite good since they kind of definitively threw off the possibility that they might be a team that could be dragged into the relegation zone, which possibly actually was with the Oviedo game. So they beat Oviedo 3-2 with a very late goal in January. Now, I know I'm sort of putting on Oviedo here, but it's the game that sticks in my mind. And it's not wrong. So they beat Oviedo. And that was the beginning of a six-game unbeaten run in which they beat Rio as well.

23:07Alex Kirkland:They beat Celta. They got a couple of draws, I think Villarreal and Elche. They then beat Real Madrid, of course. And that's the end of that run of six games without defeat because they were then defeated. I can't remember where they went then, but they did get beaten. and you sort of, and you think, I think this is a really good side who since then have been beaten 3-1 by Real Sofja, but yes, Real Sofja are a good side and that's away from home. I think this is a home win, you know. Betis also, right, with the same discourse, let's go for the same discourse again. Betis have got European football in the following week.