Is there a jobs apocalypse?

0:02Hi, I'm Charlie Duffield and welcome back to The Standard Podcast. If you're new here, hit follow and give us a rating. For all the latest news, head to standard.co.uk. Coming up later in the show, a monstrous retelling of Mary Shelley's Frankenstein from Mexican filmmaker Guillermo del Toro. The costumes here are gorgeous. The set design is intricate. The contrast has been turned up to 100. So I think in that sense, he's kind of put his own stamp on it. His love of monsters is kind of quite evident. But first. Today, the latest unemployment figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the jobless rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic in 2021, with more than 1.7 million people looking for work.

0:52The hospitality sector has had the biggest shake-up, with 59 ,000 jobs lost in the past year, according to ONS data. The national unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.7 % to 4.8 % and job vacancies fell by 9 ,000 or 1.3 % in the three months to September. The ONS said that this was the 39th consecutive period in which job openings had fallen compared to the previous three months. However, analysts also say the jobs market is stabilising after a year of volatility. Meanwhile, wage growth in the UK cooled slightly over the summer from 4.8 % to 4.7%. But with inflation currently standing at 3.8%, real wage growth, which is how much better off workers are when accounting for rises in the cost of living, was just 0.9%.

1:45These figures reinforce how challenging the economic situation is ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget on November 26th, when she is expected to announce tens of billions of pounds of tax increases. Joining us now is Joe Evans, a researcher at the Institute for Public Policy Research think tank. There seems to be conflicting messages in these statistics. What's going on here? What do these figures really mean? I think what we're seeing really is a labour market is stabilising after a really kind of unusual few years following the pandemic. So after COVID, we had just a really unusual labour market.

2:22Businesses started hiring at really rapid rates after lockdowns lifted, which drove up vacancies. And then when inflation spiked, workers pushed for pay increases in response. And what we've seen recently is vacancies falling and pay growth slowing, which is the sign of a labour market cooling. But actually, some commentators have called a kind of jobs apocalypse. I'd argue that we need to be a little bit more measured. And actually, what we're seeing is an economy that's returning to more normal conditions as businesses are slowing, hiring from that really kind of high peak after the pandemic and pay growth is kind of settling to more normal levels.

2:55And actually, pay growth is still really quite strong. That said, like you say, it's a mixed picture and policymakers can't be complacent. So unemployment is still rising and inactivity, which is one of the government's top priorities to bring down, has actually stopped falling. So there's a lot more work that needs to be done to support people who are economically inactive back into work. I'm going to come back to the issue of pay growth a bit later. But first of all, a lot of the narrative about the labour market has been quite pessimistic. Is that truthful? You know, we've had that sustained period of the labour market cooling, which basically means that businesses are slow in recruitment, pay packets are growing less quickly and unemployment is ticking up.

3:36And I think if you believe the narrative wholesale, that we were kind of seeing this jobs apocalypse, we'd have expected that period of cooling to continue. Actually, what we've seen are these kind of signs of recovery. Businesses starting to hire again, which is a really welcome sign. Businesses weren't happy about employer national insurance contributions rising in the budget last year. And a lot of the talk had been about jobs disappearing in low-paid sectors like hospitality and retail. Now, the changes to national insurance contributions at the last budget will have definitely slowed recruitment.

4:06What's striking actually is that in sectors like retail and hospitality, where you'd expect the impacts to be greatest, pay growth has actually been some of the most robust out of private sectors. So it suggests there's a little bit more going on behind that quite pessimistic narrative about the labour market. That said, unemployment rising is a trend that I think economists had expected, and that is a concern. Slowing recruitment is hitting parts of the jobs market in a way that will be painful for some people. It is also worth noting that some people are moving from inactivity to unemployment in the data, which is how you're registered.

4:40If you're not looking for work, you're registered as inactive. If you're looking for work, you're registered as unemployed. That is a sign that the government's push to get Britain working has been working in some ways. That said, we don't want to see people just moving from inactivity to unemployment. We want to see them moving from inactivity to employment. And inactivity has stopped declining, which shows that the government does have more to do than supporting people back into the jobs market. Does this mean that getting a job is becoming harder? I think that's true. In the immediate period after the pandemic, when lots of businesses were kind of back trading and looking for workers, that's the jobs market which favours workers and which workers have the upper hand.

5:18When vacancies are falling, it means that there is less on offer and there's lower demand. That means that if you're in the jobs market, you're looking for a new job, it does become harder. People looking for jobs just have less choice. And that means that the experience of being in the labour market is becoming more challenging, yes, as vacancies fall. So which demographic is being hardest hit right now? I think it's young people that are being hit the hardest, actually. One of the most concerning trends at the moment is rising youth unemployment. The RNAS has said that the growth in unemployment from this month's statistics was actually driven by rising rates of young people not being in work.

5:55And we know that already a kind of large share of people aged 16 to 24 aren't in education, employment or training. That stands at about 12.8%. And that rate has been increasing since the pandemic. You know, your experience at the start of your career can really shape your likelihood of success further down the line. So what we're seeing really with rising youth unemployment is a growing problem that's being stored up for future generations. It's true for all young people. So whether you are a graduate, you've just finished university, or actually you've just finished school and you're looking for a job, it's really challenging.

6:28And it might actually be worse for young non-graduates than graduates. As business is slow hiring, it becomes increasingly difficult for people with less experience to get those jobs. Employers are likely to pick people with a bit more experience and not take that punt on a young person looking to start their career. The government does have a policy that was announced at Labour Party conference. the youth guarantee which commits to find a job for every young person that's been on universal credit for 18 months or more that will help to address this so yeah we really need to see growth firing investment flowing into the country to make sure that businesses are looking to recruit and making sure there are opportunities for everyone in the labour market.

7:08And what's the situation like in the capital? So the picture in London is actually a bit different to the national story And depending on how you calculate pay, it's either growing the fastest or the slowest of any region in the UK, which is a bit confusing. But just to dig into what that means. So mean pay is growing fastest than other regions, whereas median pay is growing slowest. Now, because of the way those two measures are calculated, what that suggests is that pay for low paid workers in London may be growing particularly slowly, whereas for high paid workers is actually still quite strong.

7:42So there's a different picture in London with pay where perhaps we're getting a kind of widening of pay inequality. We need to know a bit more about that, but that might be what the kind of data suggests. On the other hand, unemployment, which is rising across the country, is actually falling in London. And it's one of only two regions in the country to register falling rather than rising unemployment. So that's a sign that the labour market has signs of strength in London, even if pay might be growing more slowly for people in lower paid jobs. OK, so I don't fully understand what these statistics reveal about pay growth, because I certainly don't feel like my pay packet is particularly healthy right now.

8:22So what's going on? Pay growth has slowed. It's slowed from 4.8 % to 4.7%. By kind of historic standards, 4.7 % is pretty strong. And actually, we know that because of that kind of relatively high level of pay growth, it's one of the indicators the Bank of England looks at when it sets its interest rates. And because pay growth is still quite robust, that is one of the reasons why the Bank of England is holding interest rates up. So pay growth has been slowing, which is a sign that perhaps the Bank of England's interest rates are starting to slow the labour market. Now, the Bank of England has a quite careful balancing act because inflation is quite stubborn and inflation is increasingly eating into people's real incomes, into their living standards.

9:10What we don't want to see is the tight kind of monetary policy with high interest rates provoking like an adverse kind of contraction in the labour market. It's a bit of a mixed picture. Pay growth is slowing. It's still quite strong because of rising inflation. Real pay is starting to fall. But it's still growing above inflation, which means that people's incomes are kind of still being rebuilt after the cost of living crisis, which is a really welcome development. Finally, the International Monetary Fund has just said that the UK will suffer from the highest rate of inflation of any major economy this year, coupled with the steepest long term government borrowing costs.

9:48That doesn't sound good to me. Inflation remaining stubborn is a real problem. The cost of living crisis was a really profound experience for everyone in the country. Most people felt prices rising faster than their incomes. Even if the underlying data shows that people's real incomes are being built, that doesn't mean that the experience of going into the supermarket or filling your car up at the petrol station and prices rising again, that's not a nice experience. And the government does have more to do to bring prices down. You know, the Bank of England is playing a role and it sees its role as keeping interest rates high to bring inflation down.

10:26There's more the government can do to bring prices down as well. You know, how can the government bring down the prices of essentials like energy and housing, but also the kind of other things that we buy, you know, food, other things that are part of our monthly budget. It is still a problem. let's go to a break coming up in part two the moody melodrama with an epic bromance between scientist and monster showing on screens near you soon we'll see you back here in just a moment welcome back i remember pieces

11:07memories of different men

11:15and I saw it your name

11:26Victor Frankenstein That was a clip from the new vampy, gory film version of Frankenstein by Guillermo del Toro. Originally written by Mary Shelley in 1818, the book Frankenstein helped kickstart the entire gothic movement. During a holiday in Geneva, Shelley, alongside the other leading lights of the romantic movement, Lord Byron and John Polidori, challenged each other to create the best horror story, and Shelley was the winner. She wrote a tale of an arrogant scientist who ends up creating life from bits of dead bodies sewn into the shape of a man. And it contains lessons about man's folly and arrogance, which still reverberate today.

12:08I spoke to The Standers commissioning editor and culture writer Vicky Jessup, who saw the film at this year's BFI London Film Festival. Vicky, in what ways do you think the story of Frankenstein resonates with audiences today? I think it reads quite neatly as an AI parable, especially now, you know, Man creates a monstrous creature he has no control over that ultimately ends up destroying him. Del Toro has said it is not an AI fable, but I think you can read into it. And it seems it does add several layers to the film today, I think. And what was Del Toro's take on Shelley's classic? He's been going for a while.

12:42He's a Mexican filmmaker. He's famous for films like Pan's Labyrinth, Crimson Peak, Pinocchio recently. he really leans into the gothic lots of kind of elaborate worlds rich detailed visuals intricate costumes very atmospheric and there is a real fascination i think with darkness and gothic themes the macabre the grotesque you can see it in stuff like the shape of water and i think those interests lend themselves really nicely to frankenstein because it is ultra gothic and he really ramps that up i think maybe it's a bit less evident in the book but you see that the sympathetic character in the film is the monster that Frankenstein created, not the arrogant scientist who ends up abusing and mistreating him.

13:23And there's a lot of storytelling and symbolism here. So Del Toro was brought up very, very Catholic. And I think that kind of sensibility has seeped into his films and is very obvious in Frankenstein. Elizabeth, who's played by Mia Goth, she's the kind of virgin or sacrificial mother figure, I suppose, in the film. She wears a crucifix around her neck. She was originally going to be a nun before she left her nunnery to marry Victor's brother, William. A lot of the film concerns itself with kind of fables and Christian morality tales, stories about God and whether in playing God, Victor has reached too far and ultimately destroyed himself.

13:59So is this a faithful adaptation of the book? I'd say in spirit, yes. I think Mary Shelley would have liked it. I think maybe not so much in absolute blind faithfulness to the text. In the book, Elizabeth, who is played by Mia Goth, who also plays Victor's mother. So there's like a whole lot of mummy issues going on there. So she is Victor's bride and fiance in the book in the film. She is his brother Williams, who Victor ends up obsessing over. And there's a whole strand of the plot later on in which the monster forces Victor to make him a female companion because he's lonely. That's kind of nodded to here.

14:32But in the book, Victor goes as far as to kind of get to the moment of creation, as it were, before backing out and for which the monster destroys him. What was the acting like? Which cast members shine? It's a massively all-star cast. Oscar Isaac is Victor Frankenstein, and I think he's very good at that. And he's very good at maybe giving some glimmers of sympathy to this character who is arrogant, unlikable, cruel, cowardly. But Isaac plays him very well. So maybe you don't notice those things as much, at least in the beginning. And Jacob Elordi, he's very good in it. He's not recognisable.

15:05There's a lot of makeup and prosthetics applied to him. But he brings this really amazing physicality to the role and you really feel like he kind of loses himself in the character. So he does a fantastic job, especially for someone who doesn't really speak much for the most of his time on screen. I'd say on the flip side, probably Mia Gough isn't really given much to do as Elizabeth or as Victor's mum, who also dies at the beginning of the film. So what aspects worked particularly well? The horror elements work really well. Like I really hate jump scares. There aren't jump scares in this, thank God.

15:33but there is a kind of lurking atmosphere of tension like horror and anguish which I think permeates the entire thing and makes watching it a weirdly uncomfortable experience I also really enjoyed the fact it's set during a war which kind of adds an extra element to it because this is very gory the film and it kind of it ties quite neatly into the theme of kind of the useless waste of life what does life mean men killing themselves on the battlefield maybe it means the same thing as Victor wasting his life away in the tower and we really get more of a look into how much remorseless Victor is. I said Oscar Isaac plays him quite sympathetically, but he is a monster here, which is quite nice because I think sometimes people don't realise that is the point of the film, that Victor is the baddie, really.

16:14Finally, do you have anything else to add? The film does end with a Byron quote, a minor nickel from me, but this is a book by one of the only women writers of the era. And to have her story then superseded by a quote from a man was something I felt was kind of depressing.

16:36and that's the standard for all the latest news head to standard.co.uk if you'd like to get in touch please do drop us a line at podcasts at standard.co.uk we'll be back here tomorrow at 5 p.m we'll see you then