UK inflation to be highest in G7 this year

0:03Hi, it's Rachel Abbott and welcome back to The Standard Podcast. If you're new here, hit follow and give us a rating. For all the latest news, make sure you head over to standard.co.uk. Coming up? As of Monday this week, it's officially autumn. We'll hear what TV shows are coming out this spooky season.

0:30But first, a stark warning for Britain. Economists have said the UK is set to face one of the highest inflation rates of any major economy in the world. In a huge cost of living blow, new data from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that UK inflation will surge, with Britain experiencing the highest level among the G7 group of advanced economies this year. It comes ahead of the government's autumn budget in November. So just how much does the UK compare with other G7 countries? And will Chancellor Rachel Reeves raise taxes to help balance the books? I'm joined by The Standards' Chief Political Correspondent, Rachel Burford.

1:19Rachel, could you walk us through these figures? How bad are they? Yeah, so the OECD has come out with a set of figures today about the economy and inflation. They're not brilliant for the UK, but there is some sort of light on the horizon, let's say. So essentially, the UK is set to face one of the highest inflation rates of any major economy in the world. The OECD is predicting that UK inflation will surge, essentially, with Britain experiencing the highest level among the G7 group of advanced economies this year. It's expected to reach 3.5 % in 2025. that's about 0.4 percentage points higher than it was previously forecast and then next year it will remain above the bank of england's two percent target rate as well at 2.7 percent and that's you know sort of essentially soaring food prices pushing up the cost of living as well we've got growth they're predicting is set to reduce from 1.4 percent this year to one percent in 2026 and higher taxes and spending cuts will be a drag on UK growth is what the Global Policy Forum are predicting.

2:31This comes as the Chancellor Rachel Reeves is going to lay out her budget in November so it's certainly giving her a lot to think about and consider before then. How does UK growth and inflation compare to other G7 countries? Inflation is certainly higher than many other major economies. It's pretty stubborn in the UK and that's made it a little bit of an outlier among European economies, where the average rates have sort of fallen to about 2%. The only other outlier, if you like, is the US economy, where it's running about 2.9 % a year. And that's largely been caused by, you know, Donald Trump's tariffs and restrictions to the labour supply, migrant deportations, which have all been sort of very much reported on in the last few months.

3:15So economic growth in the UK is also expected to slow to 1 % of GDP next year. And that is sort of on the back of that tighter fiscal stance, higher trade costs and uncertainty around the economy. And Rachel, what has the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said about these figures? So the Chancellor, as you'd expect, has sort of tried to put a positive spin on these figures. she said that they confirm that the British economy is stronger than forecast it has been the fastest growing economy of any G7 economy in the first half of the year but she did add that you know she knows there is more to do to build an economy that works for working people and rewards working people and she said she is determined to do that the figures you know they do show that the UK economy grew by 0.7 percent over the first three months of 2025 and by 0.3 percent over the second quarter.

4:10But that did come with this sort of caveat from the OECD that warned that growth in the world's economy will noticeably weaken over the rest of the year on the back of those UF tariffs taking effect, dampening global trade and investment. Will a tax hike be revealed in the autumn budget? Yes. So this has been widely speculated. Rachel Reeves needs to make money from somewhere. We saw some of the cuts she did have planned, including cuts to the winter fuel allowance for pensioners and massive cuts to welfare had to be significantly scaled back earlier this year after sort of rebellions by backbench MPs.

4:45You know, in the background of all this, you know, rising inflation, a slightly floundering economy, she has to make up that money as well that she planned to save, but has been forced to U-turn on. Now, Labour in its manifesto promised not to increase taxes on working people, which is a slight problem for the government, because taxing pay is the easiest way to sort of increase those coffers and bring in cash. The Resolution Foundation this morning was urging the Chancellor to cut national insurance and increase income tax, which they say will create some level playing field and protect workers' pay.

5:23The Resolution Foundation used to be headed by Torsten Bell, who's now Labour MP and a key aid to Rachel Reeves as a pensions minister. But they said that there should be a 2p cut to national insurance and a 2p rise to income tax. And that would sort of help level the playing field is what the think tank is arguing on taxes. That's because more people pay income tax than national insurance. And that includes pensioners and landlords. And they're estimating that switching those two around would go some way in raising the£20 billion in tax that is going to be needed by 2029, 2030 to offset increased borrowing costs and flat growth and all the problems we're seeing in the economy at the moment.

6:06Given the recent firings and cabinet reshuffles, this doesn't reflect particularly well on Labour, does it? Yeah, it's like it's absolutely no secret that Labour has been floundering in the polls since pretty much since last July when Keir Starmer came in on the back of this landslide general election win. You know, they did make big promises on the economy and big promises on growth and they have not materialised yet. You know, ministers are arguing that they are still battling against problems that were essentially set up by the last Conservative government. And, you know, they're still sort of working to deal with those and the problems caused by global events as well.

6:45I think obviously reform now are topping most polls with Labour coming in second or even third in some. have a bit of a popularity crisis at the moment, the government. Let's go to a break. Coming up in part two, what TV shows are coming out as we head into autumn? We'll see you back here in just a moment.

7:11Welcome back. With Monday Night's Equinox, it means autumn is well and truly here. And with cooler temperatures and shorter days, what better way to get into the pumpkin spice and Halloween spirit than curling up with a new TV show? To walk us through what's worth a watch, we're joined by The Standards TV and Gaming Editor Vicky Jessup. Kicking off Vicky, what's coming out this autumn? Yeah, I mean, autumn is usually the time that the kind of TV gods ramp up their production once more. So we've got a lot coming out and a lot to look forward to. So we've got a jam-packed week for Slow Horses Season 5.

7:49So that's Apple TV's massive smash hit spy thriller with Gary Oldman and Jack Loudon. There's also House of Guinness, which is from the mind, I guess, of Stephen Knight, who wrote Peaky Blinders and SES Rogue Heroes. That is, I guess, a reimagining, a dramatisation of the lives of the Guinness family in the 1860s. But of course, this being Stephen Knight, there's modern pop songs in as well. So we've got an interesting kind of duality there. And then there is The Hack, which is the ITV drama series based on a true story. I think they've been extremely litigious with this one and very careful. And I think it's kind of obvious why.

8:30It's because the show is a dramatisation of the phone hacking scandal that happened, I guess, in the kind of late noughties and early 2010s. What genres do you think people are after this season? I think people always love true crime. So I guess the hack would fit that bill. I think ITV are hoping for it to be a kind of Mr Bates versus the post office kind of situation where the show takes a life of its own and generates massive coverage for them. That did incredibly well. And ITV shows like The Long Shadow, which is about the auction ripper, that kind of thing. They seem to do excellently and people like to watch that kind of stuff.

9:11Autumn is quite a cosy period. I think it's also a time for people to be watching lovely cosy shows, feel-good shows, escapism. So Disney Plus have a show coming out called Chad Powers, which is very feel-good. It stars Hollywood puppy dog, I guess, Glenn Powell, as a kind of disgraced college fan who seeks to reignite his footballing career, American football illnesses, by dressing up and assuming a fake identity and trying out for a new team. so yeah that should be good and you know of course there is celebrity traitors which starts in october which we get to see people like stephen fry and the paloma faith go head to head in the castle with claudia winkelman so which shows do you expect to do well i would say like the hack house of guinness you know these are all kind of shows that have had a lot of money and attention lavished on them.

10:07I'd say there's a show coming out called All's Fair, which I think people are going to like flock to simply because the premise seems quite outrageous, maybe. It's a legal drama starring Kim Kardashian as a woman called Allura Grant, which is kind of just ridiculous, a divorce lawyer who leaves her male dominated law firm to set up a female one with some of her pals. And it also stars like Glenn Close, Naomi Watts, Sarah Paulson. So that seems like it could be really great and really like campy in a good way or really awful so I think that might stir up some conversations as well. Cool and are there any you think may struggle?

10:46I guess the main issue with September is that it's such a busy time it's sometimes hard to get cut through so you know maybe the shows on BBC3 that are excellent you know there's a second season of Dreaming Whilst Black coming out by Ajani Salmon that's really great that got loads of critical praise awards nominations um but i think sometimes when it's a smaller channel it can struggle slightly which is all the more reason i suppose to to go and check it out there's also juice that comes out on bbc three and that again like the first season of that was massively acclaimed you know it's beautifully quirky very bonkers um but flew under the radar a little bit i think because of the fact that maybe didn't get a prime time airing then that stars moan rizran as jammer who's a kind of like man child, slightly bonkers guy just kind of trying to get through life very chaotically, I suppose, and deal with his kind of overbearing family and his love interest.

11:41That was really nice, but I think that might not get as much cut through as it deserves. So I guess this is my plug for you to go check it out. Finally, which are you most looking forward to, Vicky? Yeah, there's a couple. I mean, Sky have one coming out called The Death of Bunny on Row, which stars Matt Smith as a kind of, I mean, the premise doesn't sound great, but as a misogynistic, sexually addicted, middle-aged salesman who kind of has to go on this road trip with his son as a kind of bonding experience after his wife dies. And that looks like it's going to be kind of heartbreaking and fun, but also quite like grim and nihilistic at the same time.

12:18So, you know, Matt Smith is such a good actor. I think he will kind of nail the balance there. Dreaming Miles Black season two, I'm excited for that one. I think that's just going to be more of the same, I don't know, excellence, basically. And there's also Riot Women, which, again, sounds great. So this is by Sally Wainwright, who, as we all know, is the mind behind Happy Valley. And she has written the drama about five menopausal women who decide to start a punk band to take part in a local talent contest. And it kind of digs into their lives and, you know, their secrets and that kind of stuff.

12:50And just given how good Sally Wainwright is, I think that would be one to watch out for as well.

12:58And that's The Standard. For all the latest news, head on over to standard.co.uk and please do drop us a line at podcasts at standard.co.uk. This show returns tomorrow at 4pm. We'll see you then.