Will Labour successfully fend off Reform and the Greens in the upcoming by-election?

0:07Nicolas Cecil: This Thursday, 76 ,000 residents in Gorton and Denton will be eligible to vote in a by-election. But this is not just any by-election. This is another major test of Keir Starmer's authority as leader of the Labour Party, which is dwindling by the day. Hi, and welcome back to The Standard Podcast. I'm Tamara Kormornick. For all the latest news, head to standard.co.uk. Coming up, will Labour successfully fend off reform in the Greens in the upcoming by-election?

0:46Nicolas Cecil: When the by-election in Gorton and Denton was announced after long-time MP Andrew Gwynn stepped down in January, no one could have imagined how difficult a week this would be for Labour. A couple of days ago, Peter Mandelson, Labour peer and former British ambassador to the United States, hand-selected by Keir Starmer for the role, was arrested under suspicion of misconduct in public office and has subsequently been released on bail. For today's episode, I gather experts from the Standards' politics desks to discuss what the outcome of the by-election might be and how catastrophic a bad result could be for Labour and for Keir Starmer.

1:31Nicolas Cecil: Joining me now is The Standards political editor, Nick Cecil. Hi, Nick. Hello. And I also have with me The Standards chief political correspondent, Rachel Burford. Hi, Rachel. Hi. Now, the timing of Peter Mandelson's arrest could not be worse for Keir Starmer, surely?

1:49Tamara Kormornick: Yes, well, the timing is not good for Keir Starmer, but Labour have had such a difficult time that any timing would have been bad. And also, it's important to remember that people out there in the country have real lives. They do not obsess about politics like many people do at Westminster. What concerns them is the cost of living, transport issues, immigration, yes, as well. So they are issues, but these Westminster stories concern them far less.

2:21Nicolas Cecil: Rachel, what do you make of the timing?

2:23Rachel Burford: Yeah, I mean, it was never going to be great timing, but I would say it's probably been a long time coming. I mean, these sort of revelations have been sort of leaking out for weeks now. And when the US authorities dropped the Epstein files, you know, everyone could kind of see that this is where it was going. and yeah like Nick said I think in a you know in a general election campaign that would be a disaster but with the local by-election people will be focusing on local issues and when they are focusing on more national things it will be cost of living it will be things like immigration perhaps for some people rather than you know the latest scandal to hit the Labour Party of which they've had quite a few in recent months.

3:08Nicolas Cecil: And with Gorton and Denton, this is part of the red wall in the north. Keir Starmer didn't initially go up and visit, but he has gone now. What do you make of this move?

3:23Tamara Kormornick: Well, this is very interesting and you can read it actually two ways. So I think that the mainstream way to read it is that the fact that Keir Starmer has gone to Gorton Denton suggests that Labour feel that they have now got a better chance of winning. He'd stayed away. He's a very unpopular figure up there on the doorstep. But the fact he's gone has led to reports that Labour may now win. The other way, though, of reading this is that Labour needed to change the narrative, because the Greens have done really quite a good job with a poll of suggesting that they are the party to beat reform. And if that had started to really bed in amongst voters, Labour would have to change that narrative.

4:08Tamara Kormornick: And the PM going there gives them a way of saying, oh, look here, we're so confident we're governing, even Sir Keir Starmer's willing to come up here.

4:16Nicolas Cecil: Yeah. Rachel, what was your instinctive reaction to Keir's visit?

4:22Rachel Burford: Yeah, so it was a sort of surprise visit earlier this week. And I think this is, I mean, it's clearly a three horse race between reform, the Greens and Labour. You know, bookies have got them all very closely priced. The limited number of polls we do have show it's very tight. When I've talked to people who've been up there and been door knocking, they say, you know, it is tight. But the problem for Labour is, and the line they are really trying to push, is this is a two horse race between Labour and reform. because they can't really admit that the Green Party are doing as well as they perhaps are because then they kind of have to say, they kind of have to promote the narrative that a vote for the Greens is a wasted vote.

5:09Rachel Burford: And if you want to keep reform out, you've got to vote Labour. And if the Greens are doing as well as a lot of people suspect they are doing, that is not entirely true. They could actually just get themselves across the line. It's going to be incredibly close. you know reform are actually really hoping that the left-wing vote is completely split and they are able to come through the middle and you know you've got the left-wing voters some voting green some voting Labour and they are able to just get over the line that way but whatever happens it is clearly a very close by election.

5:42Nicolas Cecil: And Nick let's talk about who isn't there right now.

5:45Tamara Kormornick: Well, the person who isn't there at the moment, or certainly hasn't been there recently, is Nigel Farage. He's actually been in the Chagos Islands, which is quite a long way from Manchester. He was there over the weekend. And then on Monday, did he go up to the by-election? No, he didn't. He went to Dover for a big reform event on law and order and borders. So that is being seen as a very clear sign that actually reform aren't doing that well. It's going to be close, but they're not doing that well. And for them to win here would be a remarkable achievement given the make-up, the popular make-up of the area.

6:27Nicolas Cecil: And let's talk about the constituency itself. So Gorton Denton used to be a Red Sea. Andrew Gwynn, the MP who resigned over ill health, was a long sitting Labour MP before he switched to being an independent candidate after his dismissal from the Labour Party early last year. And in 2024, he won the seat by just over 50 % share of the vote. So do you think the constituents have a loyalty to Labour or a loyalty to Andrew Gwynn? How will this play out?

7:01Rachel Burford: So it's difficult to say. Obviously, this is, you know, it's in the Labour heartland. It's Red Wall. Labour has held that seat for 90 years. Keir Starmer obviously won a massive landslide at the last general election. I don't think that was necessarily because of a great love for Labour or love for Labour's policies, but it was the total collapse of the Tory party, which was always going to see them do very well. in terms of what's happened since though I think over the last 18 months or so there are a lot of Labour voters that are disappointed Keir Starmer came in with this promise of you know the adults are back in charge now we're gonna you know we're not a scandal hit party like the Tories were and actually what has happened is they've been hit by scandal after scandal you know the latest one being Peter Mandelson, which, you know, as you said, he's been arrested this week.

8:04Rachel Burford: And, you know, cost of living hasn't come down. People are still feeling, you know, the effects on their pockets. People haven't been overly enamoured with Rachel Reeves's budgets. Businesses particularly are struggling, particularly small businesses. And I think there is a lot of disappointment in Labour out there. And that is why it's not just in Denton and Gorton, but we're seeing across the country reform and the Green Party, these sort of more fringe parties or what were fringe parties leading in polls everywhere.

8:39Nicolas Cecil: And Rachel, I want to talk to you about the polls for a minute, because it's quite difficult to know how it's going to go from these polls. You know, what are they saying? And also who's funding these polls?

8:50Rachel Burford: well yeah exactly we haven't had very many polls um we had one a few days ago that put the greens out in front but it was a very small sample size as a lot of local polls are and also funded by a green party donor so i you know you don't know how much trust you can put on put in on that um obviously local constituency polls are very difficult to do because your sample size is going to be small. They're extremely expensive if you want to do a proper and thorough one. When you look at the polls, even the limited polls we do have do show it's going to be close. I mean, we can look at bookmakers, what bookmakers are saying.

9:28Rachel Burford: Bookmakers at the moment do have the Greens out in front. They're the shortest price. But when you sort of drill down into those numbers as well, there isn't any big bets being put on the Greens necessarily. There are more sort of small bets from across the country. You know, so perhaps it's quite a few people in Bristol just sticking a tenner on the Greens to win. And the bookmakers are trying to hedge their bets and, you know, their jobs to make money. So it really is extremely close. And, you know, we can't trust the polls. But even when you go out, when people got out and talked to voters on the doorstep, there is a sense that, you know, it's very tight between these three parties.

10:17Nicolas Cecil: We'll take a quick break. Coming up, Nick and Rachel do some scenario planning of what might happen if Labour loses the by-election. And I asked them both whether they think Keir's constituency visit is too little, too late.

10:39Nicolas Cecil: Welcome back. Let's get back to my conversation with Nick and Rachel.

10:47Nicolas Cecil: Let's lay out the different scenarios for Friday morning. Governing parties often lose in Westminster by-elections. So if Labour loses, what does it mean for Keir Starmer? Nick?

11:01Tamara Kormornick: I think in one word, disaster. It would be disastrous for Keir Starmer if either the Greens win or if reform win. In different ways, though. So if Nigel Farage's party wins, then that means that they can win almost anywhere in the country. Bit of an exaggeration, but basically they can win places that they could not possibly have dreamed of before.

11:27Nicolas Cecil: I don't think that's an exaggeration at all. If Labour have held the seat for around 90 years, I think that's fair.

11:35Tamara Kormornick: Yeah, there'll be some areas in London where reform will never win or so, so unlikely to. But if they're winning this kind of seat, then they're heading for a big Commons majority or at least a Commons majority. And people will be talking about Nigel Farage as Britain's next prime minister. But then if the Greens win, that is equally bad for for Stammer and Labour, because what it does, it means that all these Labour seats which are currently being held are suddenly vulnerable to another left leaning party. And it could be either that the Greens win the seat or that the Greens eat into the Labour votes enough to hand it to reform or possibly even the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats.

12:20Yeah.

12:22Rachel Burford: It becomes so much harder if the Greens win, or even if the Greens come second to reform and Labour come third, it becomes so much harder for Labour to fight campaigns, particularly with the local elections coming up and in places like Wales, to say, oh, you know, just hold your nose. I know we haven't, you may not like us at the moment, but hold your nose and vote for us to keep out reform. If there is a strong left wing alternative in the Green Party, and they have shown that they can win in other places, then it becomes much harder for Labour to say that. And they're going to have to rethink their strategy, essentially.

12:59Nicolas Cecil: some of what Keir Starmer has said in Gorton Denton he's he's talked about you know the dangers of tactical voting do you think people are going to take heed and listen do you think

13:10Rachel Burford: he's still got the authority yeah it's a good question we'll see if that works um I think the stakes are so much higher for Labour in this one because you know if the Greens lose Reform lose they're small parties they've got UMPs if they should have a good showing then they've had a good showing. Whereas Labour, you know, he won a landslide general election only 18, 19 months ago. There was already controversial this by-election because he stopped Andy Burnham, blocked him from running as the candidate. You know, if Labour do win it, then Keir Starmer is vindicated in this decision to block Andy Burnham.

13:49Rachel Burford: And he's shown that, you know, Labour are still a party that people will vote to to keep out of form. But if they do lose, I mean, there's already been so much talk about Starmer being replaced. And it's kind of become a sort of not if, but when he will be replaced as leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. And I think, you know, if he does badly, and then we've got the local elections coming up where Labour is predicted to badly in many places across the country. After that, the Labour Party will be seriously looking at its leader and thinking, OK, who do we replace him with?

14:26Tamara Kormornick: And there's also another interesting point about the focus groups that have been carried out in the constituency. And what they found is that left-leaning voters are desperate to stop Nigel Farage and desperate to vote against reform. But in this seat, they just don't know which party to vote for. So in political battles where there's a clear favourite, then you can see left-leaning voters going one way. But where there's no clarity on who is best placed to stop reform, then it opens up the race to all sorts of parties winning.

15:03Nicolas Cecil: And Nick, do you think Keir's visit to Gorton and Denton is too little too late?

15:10Tamara Kormornick: No, because I think Labour were already hopeful of winning. Depends who you speak to. Some MPs are very upbeat or modestly upbeat. Others are slightly negative about their prospect. But I think Labour expect to win. I think you'll be a bit of a shock to them if they lose. But we've had a lot of political shocks recently in British politics. Just think of Brexit.

15:37Rachel Burford: They had, Labour did certainly put a lot into the constituency of the weekend. There were hundreds of activists bussed up there. They've had some big names out there. Obviously, they've got a lot of big name MPs and political figures in that area anyway. People like Andy Burnham, who has been, you know, very supportive of the campaign. People like Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell, the deputy leader, is a Manchester MP as well. So, you know, they've got quite a presence there and they've got some big names there. And they're certainly putting a lot of time, effort and money into trying to win this, which will make it even worse if they do lose.

16:19Nicolas Cecil: Well, it'll be interesting to see how Labour rides the shockwaves either way this by-election goes. Thank you so much, Nick. Thanks so much, Rachel.

16:30Rachel Burford: Thank you.

16:31Tamara Kormornick: Thank you.

16:34Nicolas Cecil: And that's The Standard. For all the latest news, head to standard.co.uk. If you're new here, hit follow and give us a rating. If you'd like to get in touch, email us at podcasts at standard.co.uk. We'll be back here tomorrow morning. See you then.