2026 Burning Questions: Another Strike? Is 'Avengers: Doomsday' Doomed? And David Ellison’s Movie Taste.

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1:13It's going to be a pretty monumental year in the business, I think. Not just who's going to take over Warner Brothers or who's going to replace Bob Iger at Disney or can the Russo brothers manage to screw up an Avengers movie. I think the answer to that one is probably yes. Bigger picture, the forces that are remaking the entertainment business in the name of big tech are only accelerating. It seems like some of the fundamental basics of traditional entertainment are seriously endangered, whether it's TV writers or the talent agencies or movie theaters. Maybe this is the year that Hollywood writes the ship, finally figures out the new normal, how to coexist with Google and AI and maybe even turn a narrative of downsizing and reduced ambition into something more hopeful.

1:53out of chaos comes opportunity. Maybe that's our new mantra. So today, Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg is here, our Monday guy. He's back from his holiday yacht. He's caught up in the whole Venezuela thing with Leo, but he's here and we're going to get into our most burning questions for 2026. Not the obvious stuff, not the Disney Warner stuff, but this sneaky stuff, the stories that may define this year and beyond box office and streaming and YouTube, all of it. Burning questions for 26 on our first show of the year. And by the way, we also now have an Instagram. Welcome to 26. Welcome to 2019, maybe.

2:25You can see me, watch clips on At The Town with Matt Bellany. More video to come as well. Today, burning questions. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

2:41Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg, back for 2026. Welcome, Lucas. This is the moment you've been waiting for. You're now a video star. I know. It's been all leading up to this. So let's go forward and look towards the year because it's going to be a pretty monumental year, I think. Lots of trends that are coming to a head. I don't want to talk about the whole Warner situation. I don't want to talk about who's going to be Disney CEO. Everybody's talking about that. Mostly because you know that we're going to talk about that 12 times in the next month. Exactly. So let's talk about some of the sneakier or more undercover or things that are not being talked about as much that probably should be talked about.

3:23Starting with, are we going to have a strike? Is there going to be possibly another freaking shutdown of the industry? This is maybe going to be a rebound year for the box office. Maybe some of these companies are going to start to return to the level of TV production that they once were at. And we're just going to torpedo the whole thing with another strike? God, I hope not. But yes, very... May 1st. May 1st is the deadline. When you consider that concerns about AI have only grown since the last time there was a strike, and that first David Ellison bought Paramount, and now you have Warner Brothers being sold, which all the guilds are freaked out about because their members are freaked out about it.

4:05it does increase the odds from where we were, I think, even a few months ago. And then, I don't know if this is a wild card, but the fact that you have Chris Nolan on top of the Directors Guild, and the Directors Guild was usually the most pliant of the three majors with the actors, writers, and directors, I feel like that throws a little wrench into it as well. Does it? Or is Chris Nolan working? The problem, I think, with a lot of these guilds is that the leadership and a lot of the people that are making the decisions are not working as much. And they are often driving the bus for those people who are not working.

4:44And they're very concerned with this kind of bottom tier. And here you have the number one director, arguably, atop this guild. Maybe that means he's going to not be as serious about driving a hard bargain. Or maybe he's going to want to use his leverage. He will want to use his leverage, but ultimately in the name of compromise, because he doesn't want to go on strike right before he has a movie come out. Yes. It's not the directors. It's the writers, right? I mean, it's been a big moment for people monitoring the situation, a lot of monitoring the situation, emails. But the writers are the ones that are going to be the most aggressive because they always are.

5:24Yeah. Although you don't think that the actors will be aggressive as well? Sure. You don't have faith in Sean Astin? No, and Duncan Crabtree Ireland comes on the show. They are reasonable people that, at least in their public statements, have taken a measured approach here. They're not anti-AI. They're not putting out statements denouncing either buyer of Warner Brothers. They're trying to get the best deal for their members, which I think is smart. And this whole notion that the studios are going to put on the table a five-year deal to try to fund their health requirements. You know, the problem with a lot of these guilds now is they had so many new members during Peak TV that now aren't working.

6:08And the health and pension benefits are significant that a lot of these health and benefit plans are in trouble. So the studios are seeing that and they're trying to rush in here and say like, oh, we will help your base members with their health coverage if you give us XYZ benefits, including it's been floated a five year deal. So they don't have to do this every three years. Now, the three year negotiating cycle is the primary point of leverage for these guilds. So I can't see them agreeing to a five year cycle. That's just like precedent setting. but maybe the state of their health plans does mean that that is going to be their priority which seems like a very fixable issue rather than some of these larger, more existential issues like AI or consolidation.

6:58There's not that much they can ask for with regard to consolidation. It's not like the Writers Guild is going to put in its contract studios are not allowed to merge, right? No, but they can either agree or not agree to press for the state attorney generals to go after these mergers or put out statements and picket over these mergers. Like that kind of voice could be an effective voice if say Netflix buys Warner Brothers. Yeah, it feels like AI will be the, other than just the same industry contraction malaise that affected folks last time because you have so many people out of work, that AI is the kind of the existential boogeyman this time.

7:41Last time it was like the new hot topic, but ultimately kind of a side show. This time I feel like it'll be more of the main event. It's crazy. When I did the SAG-AFTRA panel at CES three years ago, it was like kind of shocking to me that they wanted it to focus on AI. Because I did not think that was going to be the crux of the argument. And then by May, June, July, it was like the only thing people were talking about. And on Thursday, I'm doing their panel again this year. So it'll be interesting to see what they talk about there. And obviously, the topic is AI. But maybe there's other stuff that may come up.

8:20So just a lot of wild cards. Plus, on the studio side, you have a new negotiator. Carol Lombardini has retired. And this guy, Greg Hessinger, is now leading the AMPTP. so it'll be interesting to see if he tries to kind of stake his ground and make an example of some of these more vocal skills or if he has a new strategy here do you think they're going to be cousin greg memes if this if this gets ugly i don't know i i did like the carol lombardini eating at the cheesecake factory in the valley memes about you know because the mptb offices are in the mall and Sherman Oaks. The Sherman Oaks Galleria.

9:02Yes. I'm going to miss the Carol Lombardini jokes. I'm sure the Writers Guild will come up with a lot of new ones for Greg Hessinger. Okay, let's move on. Give me your next burning question here. I think the biggest question for a lot of these media companies is going to be how much more are we going to have to write the NFL an even bigger check this year? Because the NFL contract is not up for several years, but they can opt out early and they have signaled that they would begin the negotiations for the early opt-out as soon as 2026. Yes. Here is Roger Goodell's quote that he was speaking, I believe in December.

9:40He said, I think our partners would want to sit down and talk to us at any time. And we continue to dialogue with them. I like that opportunity. Obviously it's not going to happen this year, referring to 25, but it could happen as early as next year. that could happen so roger goodell doesn't just talk out of his ass he wants this to happen as soon as possible the rights are not up until 2029 no that i think is the early opt-out yeah that's the opt-out which everyone assumes will be the correct the rights are out up in the 30s right but they saw that the nba got basically tripled its money they're saying we're eight times for no ratings it's not like the nba is lighting the world on fire nfl is is so much more popular than the NBA.

10:23Let's go get our money. And oh, by the way, since we last did that deal, you know, Netflix is starting to mess around a little bit. We've got a new owner at Paramount. We've got a new streaming service with Disney ESPN. What more can we milk out of these people? And if I'm running one of these companies, I'm thinking, oh, shit, like, how do I run a business when the one piece of content I have to have is about to get super expensive, even more expensive than it already is. It's already unprofitable on a standalone basis, but you believe it benefits you by flowing through your pipes, basically.

10:58And now you're going to have to pay probably twice as much for the same stuff. Maybe even less. Which brings up two questions, which is, is the NFL must-have for these companies at any cost? If you're Fox or you're CBS and you're looking at this and you're thinking like, I'm just going to get completely bowled over by the NFL, maybe not worth it. I think for Fox, it's not really a question. They've kind of built that company around sports and news and you can't be a sports and news company and not have the NFL. But they also have, they don't have other stuff to amortize it and make money on theme parks and other things when your NFL deal is so onerous.

11:38Well, nobody makes money from theme parks with the NFL. No, no, no, that's what I'm saying. But if you're Disney and you have to overpay, you at least can say, okay, we're a diversified media company that has other things coming into the pool. Fox, they got Fox News, they got NFL. Right, and college football. But yeah, CBS with Paramount would, if not for the wealth of Larry and David Ellison, would seem like the weakest player, right? It's the smallest company, the weakest looking company. CBS as a going concern needs the NFL. That's like the linchpin to them continuing to be carried by all these different pay TV operators.

12:14And while the number of people paying continues to go down, that still generates the lion's share of the money for that company. So they have to keep the NFL. The question is just how expensive does it get? I would argue also that the NFL needs CBS. They still do. They are a total reach sports league. And if all of a sudden they just went to the highest bidders and it was all of a sudden on Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and maybe one broadcast partner, that's not good for the NFL either. The Sunday day games on Fox and CBS continue to be the highest rated NFL broadcasts. more so than Monday Night Football on ESPN, certainly more so than Thursday on Amazon.

12:51And there is a portion of their fan base that is still on linear. Right. Sunday on NBC, the three main windows that are on broadcast, Fox, CBS, and NBC with Sunday night, are the most watched. And the NFL would probably like to keep them there. And I think one of the big questions is, will Amazon, which has Thursday night, try to add another package or trade packages? Because it obviously has the money to do that. It feels like we might still be a little early for Netflix to jump in. Oh, I think they're going to go after this international package. You think so? NFL is going to carve out an international.

13:28It makes perfect sense for Netflix. They're global. And if the NFL wants to grow the game internationally, Netflix is a great partner there because they can produce a global broadcast and try to grow it for the NFL while having their own carve-out thing. Yeah, should be. And how much do you think that would affect Netflix's spend on original content? Well, that's part two. That's my next part. Thank you, Craig. It depends on how expensive the international package is. Exactly. And I think that for the two NFL partners that are in the film and television business, but not tech companies, I'm thinking NBCUniversal and Disney, you start to think about how much they're going to pull back on entertainment content.

14:09We're not including Paramount as in the film and television business. No, we are, but they are billionaire control. Got it. They are privately held and subsidized. Exactly. I'm talking about NBCUniversal and Disney, which have to kind of think about their shareholders and have to kind of think about their value, even though Comcast is privately held. Yes. Right. But you know what I'm saying. I think that this will lead, between the NBA and the NFL, it will lead to a pullback in content spend on entertainment content. It just kind of has to. I feel like it already has been. I think it has. Comcast has made it clear that it will, to some extent, at their company, already because of the NBA deal, right?

14:55They weren't in the NBA business. Then they plopped down a couple billion dollars a year to get in the NBA business. They're also in the MLB business. No disrespect to the MLB, but a smaller deal. So they have made sports a kind of a foundational piece for Peacock. And obviously, sports is very important for broadcast. So it will eat into the original programming. Now, granted, in the case of NBC Universal, if that means like, you know, that's also less original programming on the cable networks that they've since spun out into Versant, and then a little bit less on NBC broadcast, that's fine.

15:29I mean, you have to remember a lot of these companies for the for for during the PTV era were funding original programming for streaming without tapering off their fund, their original programming for linear television networks. And so if we're reaching some middle point where they're basically funding kind of one central network and Peacock, and it flows through the other places, it's not the end of the world. But I hear you. It means less spending on film and television. True. Shout out to Versant debuted on the stock market today. Stock is down. It went public on the NASDAQ and promptly dropped 13 % in the first day.

16:05Now, the day is not over, so maybe it comes back triumphantly, but not a great beginning for Versant. I don't think there's a world in which any of these companies would walk away from the NFL. No, I don't. I get that it will impact the other spending. At Disney, maybe a little bit less so. Yeah, maybe there are compromises they can make. There are a lot of games they have, like CBS may throw in some more games into other packages in order to reduce the cost or some shenanigans like that, like sell off certain games like Disney did to TNT for some of the college football games. There are ways that they can jigger this so that the costs are not as much as the NFL would like for these companies, but they can't get rid of it.

16:50It's the only thing propping it up. Disney's so deeply in business with them now because they also did their NFL media deal to bolster the ESPN streaming service. Exactly. So not going to happen.

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18:52Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. Talk to your doctor. Call 1-800-545-5979 or visit zepbounce.lily.com. My big burning question for 2026, my next one is, does David Ellison have taste? This is not a new question. This is something that people have been whispering around town since he bought Paramount. since he was interested in Paramount. Before that. I mean, he has such power at Paramount. And this is irrespective of whether they buy Warner Brothers. I'm just talking about Paramount because he now controls the studio. He installed his Skydance people to run the film group.

19:38He's got Cindy Holland, who does have taste, has a track record of taste at the streaming service. But a track record of taste that is different from what has made Paramount Plus work. Yes. Yes, true. Or what has worked on Paramount Plus. That's true. So since then, they've already got into business with the Stranger Things guys. They're doing a Call of Duty movie. They're reimagining Ninja Turtles. They signed James Mangold. They're doing talent deals. But just for fun, I asked Maya Tribit, our researcher at Puck, to look at the Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores of every single Skydance movie and television show.

20:18people don't realize this. David Ellison's made a lot of bad movies, like a lot of bad movies. And this is not, this is including the Paramount franchises that he has been involved in, like Mission Impossible and Jack Reacher and Top Gun. The overall Rotten Tomatoes score of all of his films, 56%. The Metacritic score, 53.8. Not great. And below the studio average. Now, the audience score is a little higher. He prides himself on making big franchise entertainment for general audiences, 66 % on Rotten Tomato, and the user score on Metacritic is a 7.3. Yeah, but what about the box office? the Paramount franchises make money.

21:05A lot of them are for streaming. If we look at the movies that Skydance released in 2025, they had The Gorge on Apple TV, which got a 62 % on Rotten Tomatoes. Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning. Fountain of Youth, direct to Apple. The Old Guard 2, 27 % on Rotten Tomatoes. That went direct to Netflix. The Family Plan 2, Mark Wahlberg, 38 % on Rotten Tomatoes. Not great. Right. And of those, I think The Gorge was probably the most successful. The Gorge was a hit for Apple. Right. The Old Guard 2 obviously had a bigger audience because of Netflix, but I think it was a step down from Old Guard 1.

21:45And there were problems on that movie. Charlize hated the director. They weren't speaking. There was all sorts of issues on that movie. But the question I have is, you've got David Ellison now in charge of a studio. What kind of movies are they going to make? Are they going to make a lot of Ghosted? Are they going to make Spy Kids Armageddon? Are they going to make Luck, the animated movie from John Lasseter? The greatest beer run ever? Well, they want to make Mission Impossible and Star Trek. That's what he wants to make. Skydance, when it wasn't co-financing the Paramount tentpoles, was trying to make those big blockbusters on its own, and those generally were not very good.

22:27And he says he's going to release 15 movies a year in theaters. is they can't all be Star Trek. And he says that they're going to all be tentpoles, basically, right? I don't think he wants to make small family dramas or... I mean, I'm sure there'll be some low-budget horror. Maybe they'll take a swing or two with comedy. But they're going to make a bunch of big movies, and some of them will work and some of them won't. I think the question you're asking ties into this larger question about David Ellison, which I've been asked a lot, which is like, other than co-financing some big movies for Paramount, like what is in the Skydam's track record tells you that he's ready to run a really big media company, right?

23:04Their experimentation in animation with John Lasseter, as you mentioned, has not gone well. No, Netflix wants out of that deal. Their video game division never really materialized into anything. They've had some successful television shows, but it's not like it was kind of this big, thriving company. Yeah, and for those who don't know, their TV shows recently are like Cross, which is a hit on Amazon, the Alex Cross show. They had something called The Runarounds. I'm not sure what that is. They had Fubar, the Arnold Schwarzenegger show that did pretty well on Netflix. Reacher, Foundation, Jack Ryan.

23:40Yeah, I mean, Reacher is the biggest hit for Amazon. One of their, if not their first television show was Grace and Frankie, which is one of the longest running shows for Netflix. So they've had some hits. Yeah, but we'll see. On the film side, big questions. Like, yeah, they're doing a Timothee Chalamet movie. Is it going to be good? We'll see. All right, next one. So I'm going to keep it with movies. Will a studio other than Disney finish first place at the box office for the first time in more than a decade? If you take out the two COVID years, Disney's been the number one studio at the worldwide box office.

24:14I actually, I thought it was 2015 was the last time someone else, but I think Universal just beat them domestically. I think Disney's still one worldwide. I mean, Disney has been the top studio for so damn long. And they have a really loaded slate next year. Yeah. So just to set the table here, the overall box office for 25 domestically came in below expectations about a little less than 9 billion. We don't have the international number yet. The expectation for most analysts is that 26 will either reach or get above 10 billion, which has been the goal of the industry. Our buddy Adam Aaron has been talking about this for a while.

24:51We haven't hit$9 billion since before the pandemic. We also obviously then haven't hit$10 billion since before the pandemic. In the five or six years before the pandemic, every year was$10 billion plus domestic. Right. So do you think we can reach that? I don't want to get into our box office draft. We're not going to talk about which movie is going to be number one. I think nine is no question. Ten depends on some of these will-they-won't-they movies, right? So Disney has Toy Story 5. It has a live-action Moana. It has a new Avengers movie. It has a sequel to Devil Wears Prada. It has a Mandalorian movie.