Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG-AFTRA Lead Negotiator

15 Jan 2026 · 42 min · 18 chapters

Ask about this episode

Ask anything about it. ChatGPT or Claude reads this page and answers with the times it was said.

Connect VO and ask about every podcast you hear, including the moments you saved. Add to ChatGPT · Add to Claude

In short

SAG-AFTRA’s upcoming actors’ contract negotiations (starting Feb 9, deadline June 30) amid AI disruption, synthetic performances, deepfakes, and Hollywood labor/industry pressures, including the Warner Bros. sale.

Guest

Duncan Crabtree Ireland, SAG-AFTRA national executive director and lead negotiator for actors; previously worked on both sides of negotiations (SAG/AFTRA and commercials). He discusses SAG-AFTRA’s AI task force and work with companies like OpenAI.

Key claims

  • In 2023, SAG-AFTRA secured 16 pages of detailed AI rules, slowing studio AI rollout.
  • Digital replication is allowed only with consent/compensation and is mainly for fixes (e.g., reshoots), not wholesale replacement.
  • Synthetic performances require notice; as of the interview, no company has provided notice.
  • SAG-AFTRA wants more guardrails on synthetic performances, including economic incentives that don’t push “cheaper” synthetics.
  • Strike remains possible but they’re starting earlier than in 2023 to avoid one.

Notable examples

  • Star Wars voice/replication cases (with estate/performer consent).
  • New York’s AI-labeling law for ads.
  • OpenAI’s Cameo feature and feedback process; Sora concerns.
  • Grok deepfake-undressing on X and potential legal exposure.
  • Warner Bros. sale strategy and Netflix’s theater-window claims.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Hollywood Labor Front 2023

1:09 to 2:24

Discussion on the upcoming negotiations among Hollywood guilds.

“It's going to be a big year on the Hollywood labor front.”

Duncan Crabtree Ireland's Preview

2:24 to 2:45

Introduction of Duncan Crabtree Ireland and insights on negotiations.

“All right, so let's get into a little bit more specifics on this.”

AI Negotiations and Rules

2:45 to 4:42

Discussion on AI regulations and negotiations in the entertainment industry.

“Yeah, no, it's so in the last negotiation, we came into it with a very specific set of objectives for AI for our members.”

Impact of AI on Digital Replication

4:42 to 6:05

Exploration of digital replication rules in the context of AI.

“So the 16-point rule, It hasn't stopped the studios from developing AI models and from leaning in there.”

Acceptable Uses of Digital Replication

6:05 to 7:14

Discussion of acceptable uses of digital replication in the industry.

“You know, think Carrie Fisher, Paul Walker, you know, a bunch of Star Wars series that were using it for voiceover, etc.”

Synthetic Performances and Industry Concerns

7:14 to 11:23

Examination of synthetic performances and their implications.

“If X actor is doing a show and can't go back to Malta to finish a reshoot, you're okay with a digital replica.”

Future of AI and Negotiations

11:23 to 14:00

Discussion on the future of AI in the industry and ongoing negotiations.

“A big example of that is what just happened in the state of New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul signed the nation's first law.”

The Threat of AI in Content Creation

14:00 to 17:30

Explore the implications of AI-generated content on creative industries and talent.

“And provides a huge advantage for people who are not signatories to the SAG-AFTRA.”

Deepfake Concerns and AI's Impact

18:41 to 20:00

Discuss the dangers of deepfake technology and its implications for members.

“Grok is now using AI to undress people on X Twitter, including some of your members.”

Negotiation Strategies and Industry Recovery

20:00 to 22:02

Uncover the strategies behind SAG-AFTRA's negotiation timelines and goals.

“I know it's hard for you to assess this, and obviously you don't want to give anything in negotiation power.”
Show all 18 chapters

Warner Brothers Sale and Theatrical Preferences

22:02 to 24:53

Analyze the implications of Warner Brothers' sale and SAG-AFTRA's stance.

“There's a, you have a, people like that.”

The Future of AI and Creative Industries

24:53 to 28:00

Examine the potential future of AI-generated content and its challenges.

“I mean, I think Ted is very good to his word.”

Navigating AI's Impact on the Industry

28:00 to 28:50

Discusses the potential future of AI-generated content and its implications.

“Because that helps us figure out what we need to do so that we're not behind.”

The Role of Human Voices in Animation

28:50 to 30:58

Explores the significance of human voice actors in AI-generated animation.

“And do you think that is worrisome for the existence of your union and your members?”

Union Negotiations and Actor Sustainability

30:58 to 33:12

Covers the challenges in union negotiations and actor job sustainability.

“What you will have is a growing level of the use of AI tools to make production more efficient from the management perspective, cost less.”

Federal Incentives for Production Jobs

33:12 to 34:34

Discusses the need for federal incentives to retain production jobs in the U.S.

“We've got a lot of members who, a lot of our members are privileged enough to travel with work, but a lot of them work when the work is here.”

Industry Updates: Warner Brothers and Netflix

34:34 to 35:26

Updates on the ongoing negotiations between Warner Brothers and Netflix.

“multiplier effect of tax incentives, all the small businesses that are part of this.”

Netflix's Strategy in a Competitive Market

35:26 to 41:46

Analyzes Netflix's current strategy and competitive positioning in the industry.

“Craig, are you following the latest updates in the Warner Brothers saga?”
Hear the part that matters, and keep it.Open this episode in VO. Double tap your headphones to save a moment as you listen.
Get VO free

Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00I sold my car in Carvana last night. Well, that's cool. No, you don't understand. It went perfectly. Real offer, down to the penny. They're picking it up tomorrow. Nothing went wrong. So, what's the problem? That is the problem. Nothing in my life goes to smoothie. I'm waiting for the catch. Maybe there's no catch. That's exactly what a catch would want me to think. Wow, you need to relax. I need to knock on wood. Do we have wood? Is this table wood? I think it's laminate. Okay, yeah, that's good. That's close enough. Car selling without a catch. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply.

0:30This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. Spring is here, so celebrate it with fresh, juicy, seasonal produce and some very tasty limited-time flavors. New Whole Foods Market Peach Apricot Rose Italian Soda. Perfect for a picnic or brunch, as is their trending mango yuzu chantilly cake. But if you're on the go, new 365 strawberry pretzels make a great sweet snack. That sounds delicious. Get savings with yellow sales signs storewide and everyday low prices on 365 brand items. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring. Save at Whole Foods Market. It's Thursday, January 15th. It's going to be a big year on the Hollywood labor front.

1:14All three of the big above-the-line guilds, that's actors, directors, writers, they're all up for renewal of their three-year contracts. Of course, the last time these deals were up, SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild went on strike. The WGA for 148 days, the act was a little less, and the entire entertainment business in the U.S. pretty much shut down. Nobody wants that, so I think a lot of people are looking to see the tea leaves on this negotiation. Last week, I was in Vegas at CES, the electronics show, and I did a sit-down with Duncan Crabtree Ireland, who's the national executive director of SAG-AFTRA and the lead negotiator for the actors.

1:50He's been on the show before. We talked a lot about AI, but we also talked about what he wants to achieve in this negotiation, some of the big issues that are coming to a head. It's coming up soon. The actors have decided to go first starting February 9th, before the other guilds, and their deal deadline is June 30th. It was an interesting talk, so we decided to turn it into an episode of The Town. So today is the top negotiator for the actors on the upcoming negotiations, the state of AI disruption, the whole Tilly Norwood question, though I refuse to name her, and what the actors actually want this time around.

2:23From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Felony and this is The Town.

2:31All right, so let's get into a little bit more specifics on this. Just briefly summarize what you achieved in your last negotiation with the studio companies and give us a little preview of how you're thinking about the next negotiation, which is going to start pretty soon. Very soon. February 9th, in fact. Yeah, no, it's so in the last negotiation, we came into it with a very specific set of objectives for AI for our members. And, you know, in our contract bargaining, we're not, you know, that's focused on the needs of SAG-AFTRA members and the performers and others that we represent, not society as a whole.

3:08Although I think it took on a bigger impact than even maybe I anticipated at first. Fran helped. Fran helped. Fran helped, yeah. I mean, I think, you know, Fran as a communicator is unparalleled. And the case she made in our first press conference when we initiated the strike to the general public, I mean, that resonated not just with actors around the world, but with everyone around the world. I mean, every place I've traveled since, people talk to me. People are like, oh, my God, the nanny is screaming at me. Yeah, and for good reason. Sometimes when the nanny screams at you, it's because you've done something wrong.

3:43So what did you guys get in that? So what we got, the first thing that we got that was really, really important, I think, is a 16 pages of detailed rules about how AI can and cannot be used in our industry as it relates to performers. Some fans of that out there. And let's be clear, you are not anti-AI. There's a perception that the guilds are trying to prevent the development of AI in general. You are not that. But you are trying to make sure that you guys are a part of the process and that there are guardrails and rules for this. Right. Look, I mean, I have to acknowledge there is a portion of our membership who would like us to just try to block AI.

4:23And so, you know, you can have that debate. But here's the reality, and this is what drove our decision-making here, is there has never been a moment in time where any force can completely stop the advance of technology. That just doesn't work. and unions or others who've tried it have failed. And not only have they failed, but they've given up their chance to direct and channel that technology in the process. So we made a very conscious strategic decision, which was we aren't going to be able to stop AI from happening, but if we fight really hard and we use all of our power of persuasion and leverage, we can channel the way that it's implemented in a way that is better and more supportive of human creativity and our members.

5:02And that's what we have to do. So the 16-point rule, It hasn't stopped the studios from developing AI models and from leaning in there. But what do you think, from your perspective, it has stopped the studios from doing? Well, the first thing is I think it slowed down the implementation of AI by the major studios and really even major independent producers in our industry significantly. And I think that's good. And the reason why that's good is they are taking time to think about ethical questions, about their responsibility in this process. And I know this because part of what we bargained for was the right to meet with all of these companies every six months to get under an NDA and confidentiality.

5:43So any of them who are listening, don't worry, I'm not about to spill the beans. But we get confidential updates on their current activities and their plans with respect to the deployment of AI. And I think that has been far more helpful than people realize in helping calibrate how these companies engage with AI, the pace of it, and the way in which that rolls out. But also, we knew digital replication as one specific facet of AI was already happening. It was happening even before 2023. You know, think Carrie Fisher, Paul Walker, you know, a bunch of Star Wars series that were using it for voiceover, etc.

6:19Done with the participation of their estate. Yes, in those cases, every case that we are aware of done with the consent of either the performer or their estate and with compensation that was negotiated that we consider adequate for those uses. But we also knew this was going to explode and that we couldn't just count on people's good intentions to make sure that kept happening. So, our first priority was getting those digital replication rules in place, and we did that. And I think one of the things that it has stopped is it has stopped the idea of using people's replicated image without compensating them or getting their permission to do so.

6:57It has really, I think, channeled the direction of replication, at least for now, more into fixing problems or addressing small adjustments or dealing with scheduling conflicts as opposed to a wholesale way of doing business. And you're okay with that? If X actor is doing a show and can't go back to Malta to finish a reshoot, you're okay with a digital replica. Yeah, we agreed to that. And I think when you look at it in the big picture, that actually is, number one, supportive of the performer. It's letting them continue to participate in that project and that role. And it's helping make sure that the rest of the cast and the rest of the crew get to do their jobs.

7:36So in the big picture, that is supportive of the human participation in that project. And that's why we're okay with that alongside the other sort of minor adjustments, cosmetic changes, fixing audio problems, things like that that have been approved in that contract. The rest of it in terms of digital replication is really subject to negotiation. And we've tried to put our members in a position, a strong bargaining position to negotiate over what they're willing to do and what they're not willing to do. And some members don't want to be digitally replicated and that's fine. And some are okay with it with boundaries set and that's fine.

8:10and we help them enforce those. The other thing that was really important that we dealt with is the question of synthetic performances. I hate to - Don't say it. Don't say the name. Are you going to say the name? I am not giving her any more press. Right. A certain synthetic figure that's out there has triggered, I mean, and rightfully it's triggered a lot of reaction. And I think, you know, we have provisions in that contract that address that. Specifically, we have a provision that says that the companies have to give us notice if they ever create any performance using a synthetic figure like that.

8:42And I can tell you that as of today, not one company has given us notice of doing that. It's funny that you say that because I was talking to a AI-oriented visual effects person yesterday and they were saying that in their meetings with the studios, anytime you're in a meeting and AI comes up in any context, five more people join the meeting. Good. Because they have to bring them in. One's a lawyer, one's business development, one's, you know, it's like they are terrified of running afoul of this in any way. And good, and they should be, right? But it doesn't mean they're not doing it. No, no, and that's okay.

9:16But, you know, doing it right and doing it in compliance with what they've committed to is what we expect and what we hold them to. But, you know, I think the other point that goes here, and, you know, our new president, Sean Astin, made this point alongside me in a letter we sent to our members, and we've talked a lot about it, is it is really important to maintain the distinction between humans and AI algorithmic models, okay? They are not the same thing. And one of the problems with the person who shall remain nameless, the non-person who shall remain nameless, is that they're not, you know, that's not a person.

9:48It's trying to make people feel like this is a human being when that isn't a human being. That is an algorithmic algorithm. I don't know, neither is Yoda. Well, Jim Henson, you know. I know, but you get what I'm saying. The consumer doesn't necessarily care. You care a lot. The consumers should care, though. They should, maybe, but they don't. And not because they care about the character, although that might be one reason why, but they should care because this is a broader problem for our society than just what we're concerned about for our members. And if you listen to some of the academics who work in the AI field who aren't talking about performance or even the entertainment industry, they're talking about AI in general, it is really important that we continue to have a clear distinction between humanity and AI algorithms.

10:34Because the more we anthropomorphize AI, the more we treat it like it's human. When it does not act like a human, it doesn't think like a human, it doesn't have morals and ethics and responsibility like humans do, that's where a lot of the worst outcomes from AI are happening. Why do you think, you know, the kinds of problems that we're seeing with people and their relationship with chatbots are that way? It's because the chatbot is pretending to be a human and it's not acting like what it actually is. And that is creating a lot of problems. So I think it's really important in our industry and also in society for us to keep a firm line between humanity and AI algorithms.

11:14And I hope that we will find a way to continue to do that. We've done that through the consent requirements and rules regarding digital replication. And we're going to continue to do that through making sure that synthetic performances are seen for what they are. A big example of that is what just happened in the state of New York, where Governor Kathy Hochul signed the nation's first law. Yes. Requiring that when a advertisement contains a AI generated, you know, persuasion piece, testimonial, whatever, that that is labeled as such. So you don't have computer generated algorithms endorsing products that you think now a human has endorsed when in fact it's the product endorsing itself.

11:53Right. You know, so, so things like that are so important and we're going to continue fighting for them. All right, so that's the past. Heading into the new negotiation, what are your top priorities with respect to AI? In 2023, we fought really hard for digital replication. We fought on this synthetic performance piece. Frankly, we didn't get as much as I would have liked us to have gotten on the synthetic performance piece. We got the notification requirement. We got a bargaining requirement, but there's not a lot of detailed rules there that I would like to see. So you want more guardrails on digital replication?

12:24No, on synthetic performance. On synthetic performance, excuse me. Yeah, and so what we've seen with that is, for example, in our music contracts, this is our contract with the major record labels. Also, in our commercials contract with the major advertisers and advertising agencies, we've been able to secure provisions that say if they create something, like if a record label creates a track using entirely synthetic voices, not digital replicas of a human voice, but a generative AI created synthetic voice. If they do that, they're required under our contract to pay the same royalties for streaming that track that they would have paid to a human.

12:58What I want is to make sure that the economic incentives for these companies doesn't drive them to choose synthetics. Yeah, they're doing it because it's cheaper. You want to make it less cheap. In my opinion, if synthetics cost the same thing that a human costs, they're going to choose a human every time. Why? Because the output that the human generates has creativity, soul, heart, spark to it. And if you ask anyone, you know, ask directors, ask, you know, I had a chance to chat with James Cameron about this. He doesn't want to direct AI algorithms. He wants to have that relationship with a human performer who can create something special.

13:32But his movies cost$400 million. Yes. So can you at least understand that your position could be seen as regressive? Well, I can understand that someone might try to, you know, use that as a way of avoiding doing it. Yeah. But it's really not regressive. And the reason it's not regressive is I'm not asking, you know, we're not pushing for them to have to pay more to use synthetic performances. I think if there's a level playing field, that solves this problem, or at least it mitigates it very. And provides a huge advantage for people who are not signatories to the SAG-AFTRA. Well, that depends on where public policy goes in this area, though, doesn't it?

14:10Okay. So you want larger law and policy regimes to reflect what the guilds want? I think so. And I also think that what human talent creates will be a superior product. And I think we can already see this. Some of the music streaming services are awash in AI. It's what a lot of people call AI-generated slop, right? Because it's just repetitive. There's nothing special about it. It's just like a million variations on the same thing. You and I talked when Sora launched, OpenAI launched Sora. I was pretty up in arms. It was, I mean, ridiculous copyright infringement out of the gate. They've walked that back.

14:51They are working with you guys on the Cameo feature so that your members are not, you know, manipulated in their algorithms. Disney went ahead and did a big deal with OpenAI. Did that surprise you? And what do you think about Disney jumping into bed with OpenAI? Well, it surprised me in the sense that I wasn't, I thought that they might wait a little longer before they did. I figured one of the big content companies would be doing something like that in the future. I suspect that it's partially motivated by wanting to be ahead of rulings that will come out in the IP litigation. And also it puts pressure on Google.

15:28They sent a cease and desist. Yeah. Same day. Yes, they wanted... Which we fully support. I mean, OpenAI, for all of the issues there are with them, has shown probably more concern about the issues we've raised with them than any of the other AI companies. Is that true? Yeah. And I think if... Other than the launch of Sora. But when they walked in back. Even with the launch of Sora. They did tell you in advance. They did. A little bit in advance. And we have an amazing committee, our AI task force, which in conjunction with our National Innovation New Technology Committee, these are members of SAG-AFTRA who work together with our staff.

16:01We've been looking at Sora and working with some access that OpenAI gave us to really give them some feedback and help them. I think that the reason the Cameo feature is as robust as it is in terms of individual protection has a lot to do with the feedback that we've given them. But yeah, I wish that all AI companies would start from that baseline and move in a better direction. So it doesn't worry you that this is going to catch on and then the negotiation power is going to be stronger. And eventually you guys will have to acquiesce to them using real voices of these characters and maybe even images.

16:35I don't think we'll ever have to acquiesce to that. Our members are incredibly resilient and strong on this point. But I take the reverse sort of point from it, which is before the public announcement was made about the license deal, I received calls from both of the companies. And the first thing out of the gate was we're not authorizing any licensing whatsoever of human images or human voices of any of your members or anyone else for that matter. Even the Luke Skywalker is the animated Luke Skywalker. That's correct. Yeah. So, you know, I think that reflects them recognizing not only the strength of the concern that we have, but also its power out in the world, in the marketplace, with public policy, officials, with the public.

17:22And I think that is an encouraging sign.

17:30This episode is brought to you by The Home Depot. Spring is starting, so it's time to wake up your yard. And at the Home Depot, they've got everything you need to do it with low prices guaranteed. Mowing your lawn is a dream with top brand outdoor power tools like the Ryobi 40-volt mower with up to 50 minutes of runtime. You can add a pop of color with spring blooms and fresh plants and refresh your garden beds with earth grow mulch, five bags for just$10. Start your spring with low prices now through April 1st. Available at the Home Depot. Exclusions apply. See homedepot.com slash price match for details.

18:10K-pop Demon Hunters, Saja Boys Breakfast Meal and Huntrix Meal have just dropped at McDonald's. They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi? It's not a battle. So glad the Saja Boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day. It is an honor to share. No, it's our honor. It is our larger honor. No, really. Stop. You can really feel the respect in this battle. Pick a meal to pick a side. Participating McDonald's while supplies last. What are you doing about Grok? Grok is now using AI to undress people on X Twitter, including some of your members. Yeah.

18:51Well, so first of all, I should say this is not a new problem, right? Deepfake porn has been a problem since the technology of deepfakes started. But Grok is on Twitter. Grok is in Tesla. It's a mainstream product. Right. So when you have these sort of niche tools that certain people are using to do this, that's one thing. That is the biggest concern I have about Grok enabling this is that it sort of sends a signal that this is acceptable in some way because a mainstream AI tool is allowing this to happen. Now, there are, I think that Grok and its parent companies should be very concerned about the fact that with the Take a Down Act, with other state laws against deepfake porn, that there may be some culpability there.

19:35And I also think this is going to continue to— Perhaps maybe from a SAG-AFTRA lawsuit? Perhaps, or from a number of other sources. And let's not forget, you know, the kind of protection that the Communications Decency Act has given some people, you know, I think there is a very strong case to be made that that does not in any way apply to AI algorithms or generative AI tools that are creating the output. That's not, you know, that's not a neutral host. They are choosing to allow that. They are choosing to allow that. Yes. I know it's hard for you to assess this, and obviously you don't want to give anything in negotiation power.

20:08But man, if there's another strike at a time when this industry is reeling and hasn't fully recovered from the last one, that's got to play into your head a little bit, right? Well, look, we are doing our part to help make this a low drama, successful negotiation process. And when I say that, what I mean is we are starting on February 9th. In 2023, we started on June 7th, if I'm remembering the date correctly. Okay, so that is months earlier. We want to give everyone all the time in the world that is needed to discuss the complex agreement that we have with many constituencies and a lot of concerns that need to be addressed.

20:50And did you do that in part to get in front of the writers who are much more vociferous about their concerns? concerns? No, really, we did it because we think that we need, we want to allow enough time to get through the, I think it's fair to say our collective bargaining is probably the most complex of the three above the line unions, just because of the vast number of categories and different things that it covers. And so we wanted to allow plenty of time to do that. We recognize that there is a, the beginnings of a recovery in the industry, and we want to help support that as much as possible.

21:27But I want to be crystal clear, we are not going to accept a deal that isn't fair to our members. The AMPTP knows that. We've told them that. They understand that. And there is no reason there should need to be a strike because these companies should come to the table in good faith as we are, and I assume they will, and we will find the path forward. But I certainly am not ruling out a strike. A strike is a possibility. But with a start in February 9th, with weeks and weeks of time for us to negotiate, there's no reason that we shouldn't be able to reach a fair deal. Okay. There's a, you have a, people like that.

22:06You, did you bring these people? Well, I mean, some of them I do know, but I will just, I mean, you know, our members want to work. Our members don't want to be on strike. Of course, nobody wants to be on strike. That is the goal, So Greg Hessinger, the new head of the AMPTP, first year in the job, first negotiation, first major negotiation. He used to work at SAG. He did, yeah. So how does that change the equation here? He also used to work at AFTRA, by the way. So I knew him when he was the executive director of AFTRA, and I worked for him when he was the executive director of SAG. And then since that time, he has been— So he's just going to rubber stamp what you want, right?

22:41Well, since that time, he was on the other side of our commercials negotiations multiple times. And no, he is definitely a formidable negotiating partner and adversary. But you guys talk. We talk. I've known him for over 20 years. I think he will have a different approach to negotiations than his predecessor. That's not a criticism. That's just a reality. I think that any new leader brings a new vibe. And so far, the dealings we've had with him have been very productive. and I think one of the things that will benefit everybody is for all of us on all sides to stay focused on the key priorities and not let minor tangential issues derail the process.

23:23And I think that that is something that we have the potential to accomplish. So this negotiation is playing out against the sale of Warner Brothers, one of the major employers. You guys have sort of put out statement saying that you're kind of looking at this and monitoring the situation. Are you going to take a position on this sale? And do you have a preference of which of the two buyers it is? We might take a position on this sale. We haven't decided yet. The reason we haven't decided yet is we are doing a really deep dive analysis on what all of the potential pathways forward are. It's not good.

Read the full transcript

24:02There's no good scenario here. So one question is, you know, what is the viability of Warner Brothers or WBD going forward if no one acquires them? Another question is, if that's not good, you know, what are the pros and cons of each of these options? And I think for us, a knee-jerk response or an immediate reaction to that isn't helpful. So that's why we're really taking that close look. What we want is to protect the interests of SAG-AFTRA members, first and foremost. And for us, that means we want the Warner Brothers studio to be as robust as possible, to produce as much content as possible, to protect theatrical exhibition as much as possible.

24:37We think that's a really important component. That's a component. You guys are pro-theatrical exhibition. Absolutely. We want theatrical motion pictures to be vital, to be successful, and to make a lot of money for these companies and also for our members. Do you believe Ted Sarandos, when he says that Netflix will maintain the windows on Warner Brothers movies? Sure. I mean, I think Ted is very good to his word. When you ask if I believe that he means what he says, yes. Do I believe that is what he personally wants? No. So how that plays out in the longer term, I think, is the question. It's not that I don't believe him.

25:16I just think that he will do whatever he needs to do. He'll honor the windows for a couple of years. They will get some results that maybe are not what the rest of the industry might want out of them. And then they'll say, okay, the model evolves. We tried and we're going to do two or three movies in theaters a year. And then everything else goes to Netflix. Right. And I think that would be really unfortunate. I think if you believe in theatrical exhibition, if you believe that there is something special about seeing a movie in a group with other people in a theater, which I do, then you want it to be vital and to thrive.

25:47And do you get the sense that your members really care about that? Or do they just want to get paid? And if Netflix is going to make more movies, then Godspeed doesn't matter where they play. Well, sure, our members do want to get paid. It's important that they get paid. It's important if you want to have professional creative talent in this industry that they are compensated fairly. But I also think our members care deeply about how their work is used. They care deeply about making sure that if you deliver a performance that should be seen on the big screen, it's not that you can't watch it on the small screen, but it's that you should have the chance to see it the way it was meant to be seen.

26:20Tom Cruise loves movie theaters, and he also loves popcorn. And who doesn't? I mean, movie theaters and popcorn are wonderful. But I saw the Avatar movie on a big screen. And I will watch it again probably on a small screen, but it won't be the same. And that's not just that movie. There's so many like that. When it comes to AI, don't you feel like you are always playing defense? Wouldn't it be nice to play offense on this issue? like i look at what's going on for instance in bollywood there's been some recent reporting about what how the bollywood filmmakers are approaching ai they are much more willing to engage there and the i know that they're not as as union friendly as as this country is but it feels like they're playing offense and that the u.s guilds are playing defense you agree there i mean And in all honesty, Matt, I don't really.

27:14I feel like when we went into 2023 with our proposals on AI, no offense to the companies, but they were completely unprepared to deal with AI. We were far more prepared than they were. That's one of the reasons why we come to places like CES. Well, because you're playing defense. You're looking at this and saying, this is going to screw us. Well, I guess it depends how you define it. To me, what I see that is being proactive and saying, here's what we want to see as the rules of the road in this area. I don't see that as playing defense. I see that as looking down the road, seeing ahead of the curve and saying, here's the direction we want to go in.

27:46So to me, steering the car in the right direction is not a defensive move. That's a proactive move. And that's why we invest so much time, so much energy and resources in being places like CES and other places where we can get a little bit of a view around the curve. Because that helps us figure out what we need to do so that we're not behind. And like when I look at where we are now, I look back on our 2023 negotiation. I think we made the right decisions about how to prioritize. And that was really informed by all this really hard work we've been doing for years in the AI space. It's funny because when I talk to people about this issue and I ask, you know, do you think that the first great piece of AI generated content will come from the traditional system or from outside the system?

28:32The sort of Pixar of AI, people say. There is not a person I've talked to who has said that this will come from inside the system, that the revolution in AI-generated content that is consumer-friendly and becomes popular will come from outside the system. Do you agree with that? And do you think that is worrisome for the existence of your union and your members? I mean, sure. The impact of AI is definitely worthy of concern. And I think there's a, you know, they say there's like a certain level of fear that is healthy. And then there's a certain level of fear that's paralyzing. And we want to have the healthy level of fear and concern, not the paralyzing level.

29:12I think that when you say the first AI feature, if you mean the first feature that is entirely 100 % made of AI, that's probably a possibility. Well, there's this movie that's supposedly going to Cannes, or they're going to try to get it into Cannes. It's animated, but it is backed by OpenAI. I think it's called Critters. And it's backed by OpenAI. And they believe that it will be something that mainstream audiences will respond to. Obviously, we haven't seen it yet. And they are talking about using human voices, or at least the reporting I've seen. We'll see if that ends up happening. It'll be interesting to see which human voices they get to be in an AI-generated movie.

29:49But these are not going away. Right. And I think that is a particular example, I think, is interesting. because from an actor point of view, and I'm not talking about now from an animator or a graphic artist point of view. You are not responsible for the visual effects and animation industry. Right, from an actor point of view, there's little difference there from the more modern, non-hand-drawn, but computer-assisted animation process from an actor's point of view, right? Especially if they're going to use human voices. And considering, if you look at the casting of most major animated features for voices, you see why they will probably continue to use human voices for the foreseeable future, because that's part of the marketing of animated projects is whose voice is used in the cast of animated voices.

30:36And why is that? Because those artists have a connection with the public, and the public connects with them in a way they won't connect with an AI algorithm. So I really think that what is most likely to happen is that AI tools will be integrated into the production workflow in a way where you won't probably have a lot of projects that are 100 % AI. What you will have is a growing level of the use of AI tools to make production more efficient from the management perspective, cost less. And then we'll see what happens if that results in an increase in the volume of production. I certainly hope so.

31:14But I guess I do question whether 100 % AI productions are something that will be more of the anomaly and less of the mainstream. You think so? Yeah, even in the longer term, I do think so. All right, last question. Looking at your face, I see that you may not. I don't agree with that. I think there will be, but I do think that there will be a dichotomy between premium and, not to use the S word, slop. And that will get closer and closer, but I don't think they'll ever be quite the same. Maybe they will, but we'll see. Last question, and I will press you for specifics on this. what is considered a win for you in this negotiation?

31:51I guess what I would say is the kinds of things that you can always expect a union like us to be focused on are making sure that our members are compensated in a way that's sustainable. You know, this was one of those. Those are the generalities. Yeah. What's the specific numbers? Please, why not? Are you kidding me? Do you think it's my first day as a negotiator? I'm not gonna just like, oh, here's the number. They're clapping for me. They're clapping for me. They want to hear it. Well, they might want to hear it, but the ones of them who want actors to do well are clapping for me because I'm not going to, I mean, obviously I can't reveal that.

32:25What I would say is, you know, it does have to be sustainable. We've had a lot of conversations with the companies about this, so I think they know what that means. We made a lot of progress on that in 23. We didn't, we're not all the way there yet. It's still really hard for people working in streaming series, for example, to make it through the hiatus periods. And even with improved rules on exclusivity and things like that and some improvements in the health insurance situation for that, there's more to be done. Can we have a Pedro Pascal rule that he's not allowed to have more than five jobs in a year?

32:55You know, there are probably some of my members who would support that, but that is not where we're going to go with this. But I do think that the point is well taken. We want there to be more jobs. So it's all about striking the right balance. We want there to be a lot of jobs. We want those jobs to be jobs that should be here in the U.S. We've got a lot of members who, a lot of our members are privileged enough to travel with work, but a lot of them work when the work is here. And we really want to make sure that that balance is correct. And I think it's a little off kilter right now. So there's a lot of important things that we'll be talking about.

33:25Are you supporting a lot of these initiatives to keep productions in California and the U.S.? Well, yeah. I mean, first of all, we're strongly supporting the idea of a federal incentive. Yeah. Is that happening? I heard some rumblings that that might get reintroduced in the new year. I think it might. I mean, we certainly hope so. And, you know, the president— Does Trump know what that is? Does he care? Yes, I think he does. Like, he's just like, make Hollywood great again. But, like, I don't think he—I don't know. I'm skeptical there. He is pretty savvy about the industry. He obviously— Member of SAG-AFTRA?

33:52He has been a member of SAG-AFTRA in the past, and he— Not current on his dues, I don't think. He receives a, you know, a pension from our pension fund. He votes for himself in the actor awards every year, even though he's not eligible. So I'm not allowed to speculate on the voting for the actor awards, although I am allowed to say it'll be on March 1st on Netflix. Sure, yes. So hopefully everyone will watch them. But, you know, yeah, I think there is a, let's put it this way, there is a greater chance that that could happen now than there has been in the time that I've worked at SAG-AFTRA, which is 25 years.

34:22And it would make a huge, huge difference to our industry. So I really hope that that does come to fruition. And we're doing everything we can, along with a whole bunch of others, not just us, pushing for that. And also at the state level, of course, not only in California, but in a number of places around the country who recognize that this industry really delivers a lot of economic value to those states from the multiplier effect of tax incentives, all the small businesses that are part of this. I mean, I know that actors tend to be the face of these productions, but there is a vast number of small businesses, tech businesses, and all kinds of businesses that depend on these productions.

35:03And it can make a huge difference in terms of jobs in the economy. So that's a case we're making all the time. And, you know, as we've seen in California, New York, other places where they listen to that argument and act on it, the benefits abound. All right. Well, first priority is the Pedro Pascal rule in these negotiations. We will. When next I see him, I'll make sure to attribute it to you. Yes, please. We're back with the call sheet. Craig, are you following the latest updates in the Warner Brothers saga? Yes. Lucas provided us with a nice update a little bit ago. Yes. He reported a couple of days ago that Netflix was preparing or posturing to change their deal.

35:42They already have a signed agreement with Warner Discovery to buy the studio and streaming unit. And they are potentially going to change their deal from having a component of$4.50 worth of stock for their bid per share to make it all cash. And that would match what the Paramount side is saying, because one of the big screaming moments from David Ellison, they're saying, well, we have an all cash offer for the entire company. And Netflix is requiring you to go on this roller coaster ride by offering you shareholders a partially stock driven deal. That's especially meaningful since the Netflix stock has been down around 25, 30 percent since October.

36:30Why do you think they're doing this? Why is Netflix altering its offer against itself, essentially? Well, that's a good question because you would think they have a deal. Why are they negotiating against themselves? And I think what's going on is they see how aggressive the Paramount people are being and they're not going away, as I predicted. And they say, okay, well, if there's going to be a problem, let's leak it out there that we're willing to correct this problem. So any of you shareholders out there who may be thinking of bailing on us and going over to the Paramount side, let's make sure that you know we're willing to fix that defect in our deal.

37:11Who knows whether they'll actually do it, but I think they like that people know that they are willing to do it. I mean, both sides were in Europe this week with the European Commission trying to lobby about the regulatory issues. Apparently, according to some reporting from semaphore, the regulatory commission there was a little bit more skeptical of Netflix, for obvious reasons, the market power they might have. But from one person I talked to, it seems like these are surmountable issues. So the whole plan for Paramount is to set everything up with what they believe is a better deal and regulatory path to getting this thing approved, and then show up at the shareholder meeting and make their pitch and saying, what are you guys doing with Netflix?

37:58We have the better deal. Come over to us. Because now this is all cash versus all cash, except Paramount wants to buy the entire thing, including all the cable assets. And Netflix is saying all cash just for studios and streamers. Yes, yes. And they haven't officially made that offer. They're just potentially going to do that. My prediction, though, stands. I know I'm in the minority here, and I keep meeting with people around town who are convinced that Netflix is going to do whatever it takes to get this deal. I am not so sure. I think still that the Ellison side is so gung-ho on this that they will ultimately raise their bid and they will ultimately make a more compelling pitch to these shareholders.

38:39Because at the end of the day, all these shareholders want is more money. This is all a dance. This is all kabuki to get Paramount to make a higher offer. And then it'll be up to Netflix to match. And I don't know that Netflix is going to match. So you think Netflix is just upping the ante to get Paramount to essentially match its offer and eventually, you know. No, I don't think that this has all been for that. You don't go to this lengths. And Ted Sarandos has really put himself out there on this deal. And he's taking pictures with David Zaslav. He's talking about how he's committed to theaters.

39:11They've really disrupted themselves to do this. And I don't think you do that just to make Paramount pay more. I think they really do want it. and you know sony just did a big pay one re-up with netflix for all the movies and they got a huge increase in the amount of money netflix is paying for the sony movies and to me that just shows the value of these libraries and how much netflix feels like it needs these first run movies and that's why they're going after warner brothers so i just feel like netflix really does want this but are they willing to take their shareholders up to what will ultimately be a potentially more than$100 million deal.

39:49Don't know. You can see real signs that they're starting to crack in terms of what their mantra is. And you can really see the ship starting to change course. Like already the deal they did with Ben Affleck and Matt Damon's company, Artists' Equity, about providing back-end points to everybody on the crew, the Greta Gerwig theaters deal, them talking about how they're going to keep Warner Brothers movies in theaters. Like, do you see this as like a larger sign that Netflix is going to... Like there are a lot of small examples of Ted Sarandos and Netflix changing their tune slowly. Well, they've always been flexible.

40:21And they've said that, you know, as a tech company, they are used to pivoting and they've done stuff that's worked and some stuff that hasn't worked. Remember Quickster? You probably don't even remember Quickster. But that was when they split the company in two to pursue streaming and have their DVD business separate. It was total disaster. And then they ended it. I mean, you could say that about podcasts. They're in podcast business now. Do you see it as Netflix scrambling or Netflix adapting? I see it as adapting. I think shareholders don't like uncertainty. And that's why the stock is down.

40:52They don't really know what's up. And it's not as certain. Like the narrative around Netflix was always, you know, this is a pure play, direct to consumer streaming company that is 100 % focused on its business and has been growing, growing, growing. Now the growth is not as certain. They're acting more like a regular media company. try to do M &A to grow themselves. Maybe they see some weaknesses in not having this IP in franchises, which is why they're so desperate to get Warner Brothers. Maybe it's not the kind of rocket ship that investors once thought. That's, I think, why the stock is hurting.

41:29And Netflix hasn't been very forthcoming about its growth trajectory. So I think that's what's going on here. But I ultimately don't think it will be the winning bid for Warner's. I think Paramount is just, I mean, you're dealing with obsessed people here. They want this really bad and they don't have to worry about the shareholders. So we'll see. Not sure, totally, but I do still think my prediction stands that Paramount will end up with it. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Duncan Crabtree, Ireland, everyone at CES and SAG-AFTRA who let us use that audio, producer Craig Horlbeck, auditor Jesse Lopez.

42:05And I want to thank you. We will see you next week for the Box Office Draft 26. Get ready for it.

42:14Stitch Fix. Shopping is hard. Let's talk about it. I don't have time to shop, so I buy all my clothes where I buy my seafood. I just want someone to tell me what shirt goes with what pants. I just want jeans to fit. Stitch Fix makes shopping easy. Just show your size, style, and budget. And your stylist sends personalized looks right to your door. No subscription required, plus free shipping and returns. Man, that was easy. That looked good. Stitch Fix. Online personal styling for everyone. Take your style quiz today at stitchfix.com.

From the publisher

Matt is joined by national executive director and chief negotiator for SAG-AFTRA Duncan Crabtree-Ireland to discuss the union's upcoming negotiations with the AMPTP, the possibility of another strike, what he wants to achieve in this negotiation, why they are starting their negotiations before other guilds, the state of AI disruptions, and what the actors actually want in their new CBA (01:21). Matt finishes the show with an updated prediction on who will win the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery (33:06). For a 20 percent discount on Matt’s Hollywood insider newsletter, ‘What I’m Hearing ...,’ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Email us your thoughts! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thetown@spotify.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Host: Matt Belloni Guest: Duncan Crabtree-Ireland Producers: Craig Horlbeck and Jessie Lopez Theme Song: Devon Renaldo
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

More from The Town with Matthew Belloni

All 189 episodes
Actors vs. Studios, and the Existential AI War, With SAG-AFTRA Lead NegotiatorThe Town with Matthew Belloni · 42 min
Listen in VO