Gosling, MBJ, Timmy, and the Biggest Movie Stars Under 50 Power Ranking

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0:44Matt Belloni:This episode of The Town is brought to you by The Madison, the new original series on Paramount+. It's Academy Award nominee Taylor Sheridan's most intimate story yet. A New York City family is uprooted to Montana after an unexpected tragedy. In the quiet majesty of the Madison Valley, they confront love and loss, discovering resilience and the transformative power of family, and the land that grounds them. Led by a powerhouse cast, Academy Award nominee Michelle Pfeiffer and Golden Globe nominee Kurt Russell. Don't miss The Madison, the highly anticipated new series streaming now, only on Paramount+.

1:19Matt Belloni:It is Monday, March 23rd. A great weekend at the box office with Project Hail Mary taking in$140 million worldwide. Biggest original movie opening since Oppenheimer. Lots of winners here, including me. I took the over on the tracking. Sorry, Craig. Maybe the biggest winner is Ryan Gosling. Despite being a movie star for 20-something years now, he's never really opened a movie on his own. But does that mean Gosling is now on the A-list? Is he considered by Hollywood to be among the butts-in-seat stars to the extent that even exists anymore? We've discussed this topic before, but not in a while.

1:52Matt Belloni:There's been a lot of movement among these so-called A-lists lately. Michael B. Jordan just won an Oscar. And even more importantly for the business, Sinners did$370 million worldwide. Sidney Sweeney's latest movie, The Housemaid, grossed even more than that. Margot Robbie and Timothee Chalamet just did a little over and a little under$200 million, respectively, for their latest non-franchise movies. And Scarlett Johansson keeps attaching herself to big IP. All these stars are under 50, so it seemed like a good time for another discussion of star power. We've got Lucas Shaw in here from Bloomberg, and we're going to get into it.

2:26Matt Belloni:What's the new pecking order for actors? If given the choice and unlimited money, which star would producers and studio executives most want to bet on? In short, in 2026, who are the biggest movie stars under 50? From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

2:48Matt Belloni:Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back to this very important episode. Welcome to opening week of baseball season. I know, it's exciting. And welcome to the world in which Amazon is now one of the major Hollywood studios. What a day. It took them 10 years, but they're finally in the big boy club. They have a global blockbuster in Project Hail Mary. Good for them. I already regret not picking this movie in our box office draft. I know. A number of people tweeted at me this weekend. Who has it in the draft? It's like, oops, nobody. It was risky. we went with disclosure day instead so uh we'll see how that does i went with another star wars movie and another jumanji movie yes have we learned i know we're gonna get into the uh to to what we're gonna do today but do you think that we really need to reframe a little bit our thinking around just like betting on proven filmmakers and producers de-emphasize franchises a little bit re-emphasize kind of the behind the camera talent i think the short answer is no okay with exceptions i mean it would have been nice to have sinners last year and neither of us was willing to bet on that would have been nice to have weapons neither of us bet on that weapons was too small for the draft exactly you gotta you gotta get to 400 million basically to be a player if you're if you're picking a team with six players yeah so like i'm still betting on the franchises where do we think project hail mary nets out it's at 140 it's bigger domestically than globally or internationally yeah i think five is probably you think it's going to get to five i do yeah it'll be like i think it's strong word of mouth yeah and the hold next week will be really small and we're heading into spring break time and i think it'll actually hold pretty well and get to five so that's that is my prediction i don't know i i mean the numbers overseas are less bullish so we'll see and also don't they not know what hail mary is overseas isn't that an american football term there's somebody i assume someone dealt with this there's also religious hail marys but yes the gosling thing everybody talking about how he's the number one now that caused a number of people to reach out to me saying you guys need to do a re-ranking or to revisit the topic of the stars that actually matter so i pulled 10 producers actors yesterday and asked them of this list and i gave them about 10 actors who are your top three and we're not going to get into this because i don't want to spoil it but i am going to reveal that i want to go through with you and we need to settle on a top five and are we going one to five or five to one we're going one to five the number one right now we're going to start with the number one craig can be the arbiter on who makes the list if we are going to debate this because i I think there's like three that are guaranteed.

5:43Matt Belloni:And then there's some wiggle room there. And the criteria here is not streaming, not who gets paid the most, not anything like that. It's who is an actual draw for people to go to a movie theater. And with a caveat, they have to be under 50 years old. I don't want to have the Cruz Leo debate again, Brad Pitt, whatever. Those guys are in a different category. it's much more interesting to debate who under 50 can get people to a movie theater we could have done under 60 and then we could have included matt damon but um no but if you do that then it's leo then it's uh ben affleck who's over 60 yeah that's true but and so is brad pitt but let's do under 50 if you are a producer and you have a choice of who to put your move in your movie who do you pick all right so let's debate number one yeah i go first sure he just this this is one where it overlaps because he just won best actor i have michael b as number one uh see i was gonna pick him i actually think he is number one we're not doing a draft we can agree i know i know but it's less surprising if you get it first i looked at the the filmography again yesterday and it's just worth noting he has basically never missed well without remorse would have missed had it not on to streaming that movie was terrible but it but being a movie star is not just about like being great and charming and movies it's also about picking projects and he has been very conscientious he doesn't act too much and what he does do works right sinners was him and ryan kugler and we can and genre but he is he is that movie he plays two different characters he's in every frame he has the creed franchise he has the black panther franchise so we've seen him do both original work and franchise work and sure maybe without remorse wouldn't have worked but if you do kind of one or two streaming movies for paycheck for awareness for whatever reason i don't think that hurts you as an actor yeah i think you can do one yeah we'll get to an actor who i think would probably be number two or three but might be instead like five because they've done a few too many streaming movies but no mark walberg's over 50 i'm not talking about mark walberg so is kevin heart i'm not talking about him either um but by the way how do you how do you feel about the kevin hart roast i'm actually excited by it i think it'll be good yeah shane gillis is hosting that'll be good is there any reason to not have michael b as number one well the knock on him is that it's a lot of coogler yeah that he's aligned himself with ryan coogler who's clearly a commercial filmmaker who clearly brings his own audience and outside of coogler maybe not as much Now, of course, the second and third Creed movie is not directed by Coogler.

8:29Matt Belloni:So you could say, well, that's, but it was a franchise created by Coogler. So I don't know. Well, no, it wasn't a franchise created by Coogler. It was a franchise created by Slovets just alone. That is true. But also it was reignited. But he directed the third one. So he does, does he not get credit for not only being the star, but directing a successful movie? And he's got Thomas Crown Affair coming. That's a big test. Right. Because he's directing that one and starring. and they had some trouble on that movie. They replaced the lead actress in the middle of shooting. So that'll be another big test.

9:02Matt Belloni:But I agree. He's the consensus number one right now. And this was reflected in the producers that I polled. Almost every single one of them. Now, of course, there's some recency bias there. He just won Best Actor. But he was on there. And honestly, my other number one right now is Gosling. You got to put him on there. Number one? Yeah, I'm putting him number one. This is talk radio. You just are, it's called recency bias. What are we saying? I thought you just said Michael B. Jordan was number one. Because I'm treating this like a draft, I guess. This is not a draft. All right, all right. It's just your personal top five list.

9:39Matt Belloni:Then I'm going to put him as two. That's ridiculous. Yeah, why not? I mean, he has now opened a gigantic movie. He's been a movie star for 20 years. Women like him. Men like him. and he's now got a four quadrant hit. That is his name above the title. He's in almost every frame. Like this is, this is very likable. I just don't think he's a movie star at the same level. I, for the, I don't think that people go to, for the most part, go to movies just to see him. And that has been borne out and that he's had a number of movies that haven't worked. His last big movie, The Fall Guy, was, was a kind of a disaster.

10:20He had that. 181 million worldwide. It did fine. and I liked the movie, to be clear. I thought it was a good movie, but it was expensive and it didn't get where it needed to for that budget, right? We'll talk about, my number two is, I think, a Chalamet. I think people go to the movies to see a Chalamet movie and he, now, he may be a little overexposed right now, but he doesn't.

10:42Matt Belloni:Yeah, you don't think any of this stuff hurt him? I think it hurts, but let's see what happens. His next big movie is Dune 3, which is going to be a big hit. Marty Supreme got to 175, almost 200. Right, but a much cheaper movie. He's got the Dune franchise that he is the face of. He made Wonka a hit. He's now made two adult dramas in the Bob Dylan movie and Marty Supreme work, right? He works it. The promotional campaign is a part of it, whereas Gosling kind of disappears for a while. I just think he's out there. Timmy has done the most with the least, I would say. Yeah. Gosling doesn't have social media, which is a factor.

11:21Matt Belloni:but I also think that makes him a little bit more special. He appears and then goes away. Timmy is sort of part of our lives all the time. And I would have put him in three. The last movie before this that you would say he really opened was La La Land a decade ago. And that had Emma Stone as well. The Fall Guy, again, liked it. Right, no, I'm not looking at past. Barbie was not him. Gray Man is a streaming movie. First Man didn't work. Blade Runner 2049 was a disappointment. man. Like La La Land was the last time where it was like, you are the star of a hit. I agree. I am not taking the old stuff.

11:57Matt Belloni:I'm taking the now. But so you think one movie just immediately makes him the second biggest movie star? No, no, no. He's been a star for 20 years, but now he's got his own big opening. He's got a Star Wars movie next year. Sean Levy must be loving these numbers because he's now got the hottest star in a Star Wars movie that's coming out next year. Starfighter. I just think the consistency of openings from Chalamet over the last few years makes him hard to beat. All right. I understand the argument. I have Gosling in like the 5-6 range. This gets him back in the top 10. He wasn't in the top 10, but I think he's now, you know, in the 5-6-7 range.

12:37My next one is Sidney Sweeney. Number three. I didn't. You have her number three. No, you have her number four because you have Chalamet three, I thought you said. No, no, you're right. Yes, I had number four for Sidney Sweeney. I wrestled with whether to have her three, four or five. Like, how do you compare the star power right now of Sidney Sweeney with Margot Robbie? Great question. I had Margot Robbie three, but I felt like I was doing that just because I sort of respect her more as an actress and producer. Yeah, it doesn't matter here. Doesn't matter here. I know. Like, if not for Wuthering Heights, I would have to knock her down further.

13:12But she did. She and Jacob Elordi made that movie work.

13:15Matt Belloni:And that movie's at 235 for a costume drama? The question with Sydney Sweeney, I guess, is like, we've now proven she can open a particular type of movie. And that's part of being a movie star is like knowing your lane and owning it. But can she open a movie that's going to be like massive, right? Like anyone but you, a couple hundred million dollars, Housemaid, I think between three and four. I said four and counting. That is my number. $400 million for a low to mid-budget thriller. like that is star power i don't think she she may not last right but she's another one where people show up to see her she promotes on social she's a she's young people absolutely care about her i think if i'm a producer and i'm putting her trying to get an audience i put her in the movie i think you've talked me into moving her into my number three spot because i kind of wanted to do it but i i i hesitated you think she's undeniably bigger than margot robbie zendaya scarlett johansson So here's a controversial opinion.

14:19Yeah.

14:20Matt Belloni:And this is contrary. You don't think that Vendaya and Scarlett Johansson are movie stars? No. Scarlett Johansson is a movie star. Okay. You don't think Scarlett Johansson is my number five then. Okay. Because she is like a defibrillator for franchises. You put her in there if you want to shock a franchise back to life. They did it with Jurassic World. They're doing it with Exorcist now. Batman 2. Like she is the quintessential value add. Yeah. You don't think Zendaya is a movie star? I do. I think she's a movie star. I don't know what she is for butts in seats yet. Her biggest claim to fame on that is Challengers, which only got to like 90 something, like huge win for a movie like that, but it was expensive.

15:08Matt Belloni:And it's not 400 million like what Sidney Sweeney did. And it's funny because every single producer that I polled, said, you got to put Zendaya in there. I mean, this is one producer I'm quoting here. He said, my top three are Zendaya, I had her at number one, MBJ and Chalamet. Those three are events and they generally don't work in streaming. I would say Sydney Sweeney too, if it's in her wheelhouse, but I think she will get tired sooner than the others. A good point. Yeah. But they have Zendaya at the top and like, yeah, she's in Spider-Man. Yeah, she's in Dune. Do people go to those movies because of her?

15:47Matt Belloni:No. The thing is, so it's not like she has had opportunities that didn't work. She has just, other than Euphoria and some of the more indie projects, been a kind of a part of a larger franchise, right? She's in the Dune movie. She's in the Spider-Man. She's got one coming next week with the drama. It's her and Rob Pattinson. And if it works, like Craig and I saw this movie. It is not as commercial as they are making it seem in the advertising. It's good. It doesn't feel like it's going to be a massive, massive hit. I could be wrong. But let's see if it opens to 20, 30 million. If it does, that's her.

16:24Well, her and Pattinson, who is, we haven't even talked about as being on this list, but that's because he was one of the biggest movie stars in the world and then decided he just wanted to make arthouse movies, which I respect.

16:35Matt Belloni:Yeah. Then he did Batman. And now I think the perception is, is that he's a commercial star. I have him in the second tier of stars. I don't think he's in that top five or six. Yeah. But because he still has not proven himself as an adult outside of a major franchise. He wasn't Tenet, the Nolan movie, but that's you can't judge that one because it was Nolan and it was COVID. It was COVID and yeah. So so if we back up here, let's rewind and kind of recap what we've done so far. So it seems like both of you are on the same page for Michael B. Jordan, Timothy Chalamet, Sidney Sweeney, all being in your top five.

17:09The only disagreement you have is Ryan Gosling is in Matt's top five. He's not in Lucas's top five or maybe he's fringe.

17:15Matt Belloni:He's not even in your top five. I don't know. So I agree, Jordan, Chalamet, Sweeney. And then the other names I'm playing with, we kind of talked about Margot Robbie. We kind of talked about Scarlett. We haven't talked about Ryan Reynolds, who I think is still a pretty big movie star. I know. I know. He's 49. He's going to be 50 soon. He's just sneaking in. Yeah. He has Deadpool. He's got Free Guy did$331 million in the COVID era. He was who I was alluding to where he's done too many streaming movies. So it's harder for me to know because like, I think he's a huge movie star, but if you go and do a bunch of Netflix and Amazon movies, it's, it's harder for me to judge.

17:59And Apple. He did spirited.

18:01Matt Belloni:Remember that? The Will Ferrell movie. Don't even remember. He did Red Notice, which is still the number one movie. There's number two movie. Red Notice and Adam Project were big hits for Netflix. They just aren't actually, they weren't released in theaters in the same way. Yeah. I didn't pick him because if that kids movie last year didn't do well, that felt like a weird one. Yeah. But he was the star. I think he downplayed it because he cared more about Deadpool. Yeah. He's in an Apple movie later this year, Mayday, which may or may not even get theaters. This is the problem is that. Yeah. So his last big movie is Deadpool, which was one of the, was it the biggest movie of its year?

18:39Matt Belloni:It was definitely one of the Wolverine was the biggest movie of that year. And those movies work because of him, right? Like the tone. But do people want to see him outside of that? Well, Free Guy. He's got Animal Friends, this big Warner Brothers movie that may or may not get pushed to next year. Free Guy was the last test of it. And the answer to that was a resounding yes, excuse me. But otherwise, he's done a lot of these Netflix movies. So it makes it hard for me to judge him. If you are casting for a big movie, who do you think is more likely to move the needle? Ryan Reynolds or Ryan Gosling?

19:11You've chosen Gosling.

19:12Matt Belloni:Gosling. I think he's just more relevant now. I think Barbie did a lot for Gosling too, even though no people, he was an element there. People did see it in part because of him. The Ken, Ken in general was an element, but yes. Yeah. This episode is brought to you by Tax Act. Like an expert coach, Tax Act offers step-by-step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes. Get tips along the way, add expert assist to talk to tax experts and let our experts do your taxes for you with expert full service. Tax Act helps you find the deductions and credits you deserve so you can get them over with.

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20:09Matt Belloni:margot robbie so she's kind of getting the shaft here i know no i think 30 she's gonna get to she's get weathering heights to 250 million i think what i would do is i'd have margot robbie four and gosling five and then i'd have scar joe and ryan reynolds right outside of the top five i think i would pick scarlett johansson five and put margot robbie six that's fair i think scarlett johansson's a bigger star i think she means that having come from marvel i think she means a lot to people and matt that means you have gosling michael b jordan timothy chalamet sydney sweeney and scarlett johansson yeah so we're just just we're basically disagreeing on scarlett and robbie and are you putting ryan reynolds in the top five no i'm gonna replace him with gosling i think i i think i think you could go either or with those i don't Robbie ScarJo and the Ryans are like the four, five, six, seven in whatever order.

21:01Yeah. I'm kind of surprised about Matt, your confidence in Scarlett Johansson. I don't know. You saying that she like revitalized Jurassic World. Is that even right? Like the third Chris Pratt one did a billion. This one did 800. I mean, it's basically just Avengers in Jurassic Park. Like what original stuff has she done that works?

21:19Matt Belloni:I don't think people show up for her. You don't think so. Well, the test case for that was fly me to the moon. Yeah. which was a theatrical movie from Apple that totally bombed. So I hear you there, but because - What's an original thing she's done in the last 10 years that you think it worked? I know everyone always cites Lucy and that was like 15 years ago now. It was a fun movie, but yeah, that was a previous generation. Yeah, I hear you guys. I just feel like if you are a studio head and you are looking at your buffet of actors and actresses to choose from, consistently they choose her. There's like two types of actors now.

21:54There's like the people that you put in your big IP movies that are huge movie stars like Scarlett Johansson and like Chris Pratt and things like that. And then there's like the other layer where it's like Zendaya, where people would still put them above people like Scarlett Johansson in their list, even though there's the box office difference between the two of them is very wide. Well, Zendaya has Spider-Man and Zune. That's a good point. The track record of some of the younger actors doing left-of-center movies or original movies is better than some of those slightly bigger movie stars, right?

22:29I think you put Zendaya in a crazy Marvel movie. If she's the star of a Marvel movie, I think it could do really well.

22:37Matt Belloni:We just haven't seen it. Don't get me wrong. She's a value add, but I don't think that she has proven herself as a lure for audiences in a mainstream way. Well, cause she's not taking those. She's not making those movies. Of course. Yeah. She's only 29 also. So we'll see. Um, Tom Holland, just not on this list. Got to see it in something other than Spider-Man. Well, we saw him in uncharted that did pretty well, but he's also made a bunch of like, he did a streaming movie, did a streaming series. He, He has not proven himself as a star outside of Spider-Man, I would argue. I think there's one person that needs to be mentioned that you guys haven't discussed yet.

23:16Matt Belloni:Is it Emma Stone? Yes, it is. Okay. Yeah, I thought about her. I put her in the second level. She's 37. She's been in Indyland for so long now that if we made a power list of Yorgos Lanthimos actors, she would certainly be number one, but we're not. So what has she done for us lately? Well, I think the fact that she drags these insane movies to decent, like poor things over a hundred million, the favorite over a hundred million. And then 10 years ago, La La Land, 500 million. Just those three things alone in the last 10 years, considering the subject matter, especially of the Yorgos movies is remarkable to me that poor things is at a hundred million dollars.

23:54I think that's, that's worth discussing.