Hell Has Frozen Over: Netflix To Release Greta Gerwig’s ‘Narnia’ Exclusively in Theaters

0:00This episode is brought to you by FX's Love Story, John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissett. The critically acclaimed series explores the undeniable chemistry, whirlwind courtship, and high-profile marriage of one of the most iconic couples of the 20th century. With Sarah Pidgeon and Paul Anthony Kelly leading a cast including Naomi Watts, Constance Zimmer, Alessandro Nivola, and Grace Gummer. Called A Stunning Portrait of Love by Variety, Love Story is Emmy eligible in all limited series categories. Now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers.

0:40This episode of The Town is brought to you by Starz's Outlander. Everything has led to this. The final chapter of the time-traveling drama and cultural phenomenon starring Sam Heughan and Catriona Balfe is only on Starz. Vogue declares Outlander one of television's greatest love stories, and the rap raves Balfe and Heughan have perfected this on-screen relationship. Industry voters can access all episodes at starsfyc.com. It is Monday, May 4th. If it's a little chilly out there in Hollywood today, it's because hell has frozen over. Netflix has agreed to release its first movie in theaters worldwide with a traditional window of theatrical exclusivity.

1:22It's the Narnia movie, of course. Greta Gerwig, a huge flex here. Remember, Netflix signed Gerwig to make this movie before Barbie came out. And then after Barbie became a huge success, she politely asked Netflix to put the movie in theaters. I think forcefully is a better way to describe that ask. But Ted Sarandos, the co-CEO of Netflix, Mr. Movie Theaters Are Not Our Model, he reluctantly agreed to put the movie in theaters, but only on IMAX screens and only for two weeks starting in Thanksgiving. saving then narnia would debut on christmas on netflix not nothing but not a big deviation to ted that felt like a good compromise greta would get about a thousand theaters worldwide and about a month window and netflix could explain that away as a stunt not a real theatrical release last thing ted wanted was every other top filmmaker demanding the quote-unquote greta deal amc home to most imax screens they were on board with that plan but regal the second biggest chain They didn't love it because remember, the theater chains don't play Netflix movies precisely because the Thanksgiving to Christmas period is only 30 days.

2:26Most studios adhere to a 45-day window for the big titles especially. Why would Regal bend the rules for this one movie and from a notoriously anti-theater company? But now, after many negotiations, lots of behind-the-scene maneuvering, and an injury on the set of Narnia that delayed production of the movie, we have a new plan. Narnia, the magician's nephew, will now play in all formats. Not just IMAX, all types of theaters, all the chains, starting on February 12th. IMAX is going to get it a couple days early, and it won't hit Netflix until April 2nd. That's a 49-day window. So, what happened here?

3:04Why did Netflix blink on theaters? Is this just a one-off? Or is this a sign of future softening of Ted's stance towards theaters? Big implications for the entire ecosystem in Hollywood. Remember, Ted just tried to buy Warner Brothers and convince everyone that he would honor the theatrical window for those movies. Are the big Netflix movies next? Netflix says no, of course. But what does Lucas Shaw think, our Monday guy? We're going to discuss it all. Today, it's Netflix and Narnia. Why did Greta Gerwig get theaters when so many directors do not? From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

3:42okay we are here with lucas shah from bloomberg welcome back lucas are you going to any of the netflix is a joke events this week in la yeah i'm going to uh well i i think i'm going to the kevin hart roast on sunday uh and i am supposed to go see this person gary star on friday night which was a recommendation from someone at Netflix and who declined to tell me any information and just said, go see it. It's really weird. Oh, that's fun. Yeah. It really is. I mean, we shit on Netflix sometimes on this show, but this is one of the great things they do. This comedy festival every couple of years in LA, it's literally like dozens and dozens of shows.

4:22I'm going to Seinfeld. I'm going to go to the Seth Rogen thing on Wednesday where he's got like a dozen comedians. It's going to be great. So are you just buttering Ted up because you're about to insult him for the next 20 minutes. I am loading up my crap that I'm going to dump all over Netflix. No, they did a nice thing here. All right, let's get into this because we should talk about the big news of the week, the Greta Gerwig deal, where Netflix is now going to put the Narnia movie, not in IMAX theaters as they previously announced. Well, in IMAX, but in all the theaters. Right, but not exclusively in a thousand IMAX screens.

4:57They're going worldwide. This is something that Scorsese wanted. This is something Guillermo del Toro wanted very badly. David Fincher, Catherine Bigelow, name your top director that has worked with Netflix. They all wanted theaters. Greta Gerwig got them and got a wide release with a 49-day exclusive window in theaters. Why did Greta get this? Right combination of director, project, and timing, right? I think if Guillermo del Toro had pushed for this for Frankenstein now, as opposed to a year ago, he would have gotten it too. But you have. Oh, you think so? I think so. Because I think the unique nature of this project, the fact that it predated Barbie and she was deciding what to do after Barbie.

5:47She really wanted to do this, but she held it out there. Oh, I would like theaters. She has been pressing this point. She was at the head of IMAX's house this past month, like talking to him like she's made it her thing that she wants this and right time where ted was looking at warner brothers got to know the the theatrical business a little more is putting his toe in the water with these stunts like the k-pop demon hunters thing like one piece and he came around on it look you have one of the most talented uh and bankable directors of her generation if not the most. You have a project that has sort of global resonance and is, you know, huge scale, big visual effects.

6:35It's like, I mean, I don't know if it's going to work in theaters, but it is the type of movie that people make for theaters, not just for viewing at home. I've heard it's going to be the most expensive movie Netflix has ever made, if not the most, with apologies to the Russo brothers here, but it's going to be among the most expensive movies that Netflix has ever made. It's coming on the heels of this Warner Brothers deal where they might push back on it. But I think the theatrical issue became a huge stumbling block for them because it meant that both the entertainment industry was sort of aligned in many ways against the deal.

7:09You had politicians asking about the future of movie theaters. It was just something that really got in the way for them. And as you and I have both reported on in the past, there are projects that they have lost because they don't get theaters. And so I I think if they can say on select titles, you know, we will do this, they're going to say this is a one-off. And you and I both know that even if they say that, they're going to, if this works for all involved, they'll do it again. Yeah, that's the whole question here is what kind of precedent are they setting? Because let's get into the deal itself, first of all.

7:43They had been talking about this for a few months now. I mean, I have reported it. Others have reported it. that Sarandos was open to a wide release because that's the big thing here. Not the Netflix-IMAX partnership. That was the original deal. That was great, but it was two weeks in theaters and then a month to streaming. They have been talking about going wide because that's what Greta wanted. They then have this opportunity or setback where there's an injury on the production that does delay it. I am told that is real, that they were questioning whether they were going to be able to hit that Thanksgiving release date.

8:22So they all get together and say, well, okay, what kind of opportunity does this give us? And Netflix had really wanted the movie for Christmas. If that's not going to happen, then maybe they look at this and say, this is our chance to do something unique here. And IMAX wanted it. They were okay with losing the exclusivity if it meant supporting the filmmaker. and getting the couple days of exclusivity in advance of the wide release. Regal had some leverage here because remember, the original IMAX deal with Netflix had AMC on board. They have most of the IMAX screens, but it did not have Regal on board.

9:04Now, IMAX says it wasn't a problem. They had recruited theaters around the world and they were going to meet that thousand screen requirement in the deal. But Regal did have some leverage because they were not signed off on this because of the 30-day window. They want at least 45. And you have Netflix here, who I think, you know, there's larger macro issues going on with Netflix. Their growth is slowing. They have now gone after Warner Brothers. It didn't work. They have had issues with their stock where investors are looking at them saying, okay, why did you need Warner Brothers so badly? Where is the next growth engine for Netflix coming?

9:44and it all lines up where if Netflix can do this and get a successful result, maybe that becomes the template for another growth engine for them. I don't know that movie theaters are going to be another growth engine for them, but I don't know. It's a$40 billion global business that Netflix could take a piece of. And basically everybody else in the movie ecosystem has decided, except for Apple, that theaters are worthwhile. while netflix not our model out outdated you know ted ted's thoughts on this are pretty clear but i think when you are making movies at that scale it's harder and harder to justify the cost without that revenue i think it makes sense for movies at that scale i just don't think that releasing a handful of movies in theaters is going to generate meaningful revenue for a company that's going to make 40 billion dollars in sales this year even the companies that put movies in theaters, the movie, other than Disney, and that's because of how it ties into everything, movies don't actually move the stock price for these big media companies.

10:49It's a nice business to be in. It's a diversification and it may create franchises that they can exploit in other areas. But whether it's Warner Brothers, Paramount, the studio business tends to be a pretty small part of their overall business. You don't think Netflix is looking at the Nielsen chart that It came out last week and two of the top five movies were prime video movies, Mercy and Crime 101 that got theatrical releases and marketing campaigns and saying, okay, those movies are outperforming the movies that we put on Netflix without marketing campaigns and without theatrical releases.

11:25Maybe there's something to that. I don't actually think the numbers for Crime 101 and Mercy were all that good. They topped the chart for the week. Sure. In a light week after Zootopia had been a number one for several weeks. I think that that beat a lot of Netflix originals. I think that that question has been out or that phenomenon has been out there for a while. They've seen the performance of the other studio movies that they get and how well that those do on streaming. And they have ignored that till now. I think we've I think we've just reached a point where there are enough different things happening at the same time and that this is a special movie.

12:03I'm curious because you brought up the people who'd asked in the past, how many directors do you think could get away with making Netflix do this? Like, where is the line? Well, I think there are four or five where the mere interest in a Netflix movie would cause Ted to give them the Greta deal. I think it is clearly Nolan, Tarantino, Spielberg, who else? Kugler, Jordan Kugler. I have Peele. I wrote Peele, I think Cuaron, if he wanted to do it, they might have to do it for. I don't know. You don't think that if Scorsese came back because he was unhappy about The Irishman, he goes and does his next movie at Apple, that if he was like, if you want to work with me again, you've got to do theatrical or because his movies haven't worked theatrically, does Netflix say, sorry, we're not doing it?

12:57I think it's a case by case. It depends on the movie. If it's a small personal movie, no. If it's Leo starring in a crime thriller, maybe. But isn't that true with Spielberg? If he came to them with the Fablemans, I don't think they're giving him this release. He's enough of a name. Listen, they did a whole deal with Spielberg's Amblin on the hope that they would potentially get a directing vehicle from Spielberg. That hasn't happened. They've had a couple of hits from them, but they haven't had that kind of success. I think also how these projects come together matters. If Netflix had some big book that they had optioned and there's a filmmaker like Nolan or Spielberg that is interested in doing it, but would require the Greta deal, I think they do the Greta deal.

13:42And that could be true for, you know, Joe Kaczynski or someone who has had big theatrical success and wants to do a Netflix movie, but would require theaters. Like they just, it's a competitive environment. And I think they're probably sick of losing projects over this topic. That, I think, is a factor. Everything else makes sense here. All the players are doing what they do. AMC is doing what they do. Regal, all the players. Greta. The big mystery here is why did Ted blink? And the industry has coalesced around this 45-day window as the new norm, right? You had Donna Langley of Universal come out and say, we're going to do 45 days.

14:23You've had David Ellison of Paramount say, we're going to do 45 days. Disney has often had the longest windows anyways. And so if everyone else is going 45 days, and in most of those cases, that's just to purchase or rental at home, not even streaming. There was a time for Netflix where the movie studios were sort of moving in their direction. It was during and then coming out of COVID where Universal was saying 17 days and other people were doing 30. And if those windows were shorter and shorter, why would Netflix feel obligated to change their model? because it seemed like that business was coming towards them.

14:58It has now kind of reverted a little bit. They've found a medium between where they were before, which was an even longer window, often, you know, 90 days or 120 days, and now, which is 45, which I think is a little more rational. And so if movie studios and movie theaters are holding hands on that, that sort of leaves Netflix on an island. Yeah. Ted sees, he reads the room, and he knows he's losing on this issue, and he just got exposure to the Warner's model, which presumably makes a lot of sense to include theatrical. And that's what caused his movement. Well, the tricky, the thing that I'm most curious about is putting movies and theaters only works if you market them.

15:38Yeah. You wrote about this in your newsletter, but there's a marketing commitment in the deal. I wrote about this a year or two ago in the deal between IMAX and Netflix, which is now going to be honored by all the theater chains. There is going to be a meaningful, normal, blockbuster-style marketing campaign associated with this movie. And they've committed to lean into IMAX and promote the IMAX element of it. So that's happening. I'm telling you, even promoting an IMAX release is different from promoting 4 ,000 domestic screens. Netflix has never done it before. I'm not saying they can't. They have a very capable marketing team.

16:16But it's just not something they've done. They do not typically do huge pre-release promotion. They just don't. And at least now, they're claiming that they're going to distribute this movie themselves, which is another big mystery. Why not partner with an experienced traditional distributor to get the most out of this? I mean, Sony distributed Project Hail Mary overseas for Amazon because they don't have their apparatus up and running yet. Project Hail Mary did$100 million in IMAX alone. I mean, that's the model for this movie, right? And can Netflix do it? Well, it's very Netflix to say we're going to do it ourselves.

16:55You would think that they had learned from some of their other experiences with new businesses where maybe it's best to start with someone else and then figure out how to do it yourself. They don't have a large theatrical distribution team. No. And this is a big movie to be learning on the fly and an expensive movie. And the traditional distributors are just sitting there waiting for opportunities like this. Warners would do it. Universal would do it. Sony would do it. I had heard that there were some talks with Sony, and yet Sony denies that they are going to release this movie. Well, Sony and Universal would make the most sense, considering the pay-one relationship that already exists between Netflix and those companies.

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18:18Or get$50 off a select Weber Spirit Grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay String Lights that bring it all together. Shop Spring Backyard Days for seven days at The Home Depot, now through May 6th. Exclusion Supplies, see homedepot.com slash price match for details. Talk about the dates here, because this movie went from Thanksgiving and Christmas to now February 12th to April 2nd. And there's some mysteries there because obviously President's Weekend, big movie-going weekend, they picked this because it's considered there weren't any big movies already on that date.

18:59But I think the difference there is that it's Super Bowl weekend. Not a good movie-going weekend because people spend all of Sunday at home. And it's weird that it's a holiday weekend, but that's probably why there was no big movie on this weekend. It's also Valentine's Day weekend. So classic, you know, classic date movie, Narnia. Well, I mean, I don't know. Wuthering Heights did okay on that weekend this past year, but that's a big risk. Also, one of the reasons why Netflix wanted this movie on Christmas is because there's a religious aspect to the Narnia stories. And apparently Greta Gerwig is leaning in on that aspect in her adaptation.

19:38But now they get it close to Easter. But they get it after Easter. Easter is on the 28th of March next year. And this movie is coming out on the 2nd of April. They could have gone on Easter Sunday and still held to that 45-day window. If they go just on Sunday instead of on their normal Thursday night at midnight. Yeah, they could have dropped it on Easter. Do we think that this is going to be a movie for kids? Yes. Because that's the one thing. January and February, as usual, is pretty empty. But if what I'm reading about the calendar is right, it comes out a week after an Ice Age movie and a week before the Cocomelon movie.

20:15So that is a pretty crowded kids corridor already. There is also an Air Bud movie in January, but I'm guessing most kids don't remember or care about Air Bud. Oh, you missed Air Bud at CinemaCon. He was there. Five-year-old Lucas would have been very excited. Yeah, it is a risk. I mean, that's why these calendars are sorted out years in advance, because people are jockeying for the best dates. And this date was available because it's not a great date. Well, and what's odd is that they had a good date previously that was sort of uncharacteristically empty. Yeah. I know, Thanksgiving, it's got an original Disney movie on it.

20:50Yeah, but you have Hunger Games and Fockers, both of which I think are going to do pretty well. But they had the IMAX for those. Yes, they had the IMAX. And to get IMAX in January and February is much easier than getting it in March or April or, God forgive, summer. I don't know. I find it very hard to bet against Greta Gerwig. She hasn't really missed yet. True. Do you think, as a Netflix observer, this is a sign of future plans? that Ted knows they're eventually going to go after Sony or Lionsgate or Universal or some other theatrical distributor to replace Warner Brothers that they wanted and that they need to get on board with learning more about theatrical distribution and exhibition in order to be a better suitor and owner of one of those companies.

21:47I guess my feeling on this is we need to stop talking about it as purely a focus on feeders i think that the the willingness to experiment more with feeders is part of a larger consideration at netflix which has up until this point been exclusively focused on its streaming business but you've seen it over the last few years experiment with consumer products and in-person experiences and sort of other lines of business that games as yes games although that is at least for now part of the the streaming package and podcast don't forget podcast podcast again part of this that's more of a streaming programming vertical but i think that like a true entertainment studio media company has multiple lines of business, not just streaming.

22:40And they are trying to expand into their areas. Like the final chapter, not the final, but the next chapter in Netflix's evolution is like, they're basically the only tech company that became an entertainment company, but they're still a platform company. And if you're a studio, a big part of your business is exploiting that IP in many ways. It's sort of the model that Disney has perfected. And that's one area where Netflix is still so far behind Disney and even Warner Brothers and Universal and to some extent Sony. And so I think this is all part of them trying to experiment more and more with how do we create durable IP because they've been making original programming now for almost 15 years and others and Stranger Things and to some extent Bridgerton, like they don't have a lot of durable IP.

23:25K-pop demon hunters. It's unsustainable for the amount of TV and movies that they make and spend on that doesn't become long-term IP is unsustainable. Yeah. I mean, what I think is the, this is a potential growth engine and they are looking for growth engines. And while theatrical is not like you said, you know, bottom line growth engine, IP creation is, and if they can use theaters to increase the value of these properties that they are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to create. It's why all these other studios are like, what are you doing? You can't spend that much on a movie and not make money on it in multiple windows.

24:08Right. They went in because they'd had so much success disrupting the television business. They thought that they could rewrite the rules for how entertainment companies operate. And it turns out that while they were way ahead of the game and much smarter than people when it came to distribution, there are other aspects of the business where doing the way that people did things actually made some sense. And they are sort of belatedly coming around to that. If they can take Narnia and make it a popular video game or have there be an experience at one of these Netflix houses or anything of that, have there be a bunch of toys for Christmas or Halloween costumes, all of that stuff should benefit Netflix and they haven't really figured it out.

24:47And at a time when engagement for some of their bigger hits is declining. Yeah. Bridgerton, Night Agent. Night Agent is the big one. yeah i am not surprised they just announced that the fourth season of the night agent would be the final one which is if you see the fall off in the most recent seasons it's not surprising but that's a trend these shows don't have the long hit horizon that they did in traditional linear they burn out faster for most julia alexander just wrote about this about the difference now and these streaming shows just popping initially in the beginning and then fading quickly versus the buildup of the weekly release.

25:29And if you have a popular movie, especially one for kids, it's forever. Even though I wrote a little bit about Bridgerton, Bridgerton seems quite strong and durable. It's the most watched original show of the year. All right, so five years. How many movies per year is Netflix giving wide releases to in five years? Six. whoa that's a lot six movies a year are going to justify wide releases from netflix maybe four two two to three okay four my whole thing has been if they want if they want one huge tentpole a quarter that tentpole should be in theaters so i'll go with four fine six okay six was probably two i was thinking if you you could also go up to eight and so i went in between but sure i'll go with four i think two is too little i don't i think they'll be at more than two by then but i could be wrong scott stuber will be doing a victory dance he was advocating for this forever at netflix and it always stopped at ted's desk will he be doing a victory lap if he won't be part of no but you know what he could say he was right and he'll probably be producing the kind of movies that netflix puts in theaters so he'll be able to go to the premiere and say listen my movie is coming out in theaters so good for him all right lucas thanks very much thanks man today's call sheet is brought to you by holiday in by ihg the global icon you love but with a whole new energy and comfort that hits different than before craig how much are you following the latest kimmel issue with the fcc the sequel's never as good as the original it really isn't i mean this one is even dumber than the last one the last one at least these station groups were upset over the charlie kirk joke that kimmel made it was you know on the line probably not the his best joke of all time but this latest one man it is the dumbest controversy if you haven't been following kimmel did a fake white house correspondence dinner bit on the show days before the actual white house correspondence dinner very funny jokes referred to melania as you know, a widow in waiting or something similar to that.

27:35There was a funny joke about, obviously about the age differential between her and Trump. Then the shooting at the Correspondence Center happens. Melania pounces, says that he should be taken off the air. Trump does the same. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, Brendan Carr is now vowing to review Disney's licenses that it gets from the FCC earlier than when they come up in 2028. and now Disney is in this kind of a legal stalemate with the government over the licenses. Unbelievable. But this one just feels like, like with the new Disney CEO, Josh, tomorrow, this feels like an easier decision. I mean, Brandon Carr and the FCC, they wouldn't even be able to, he can't actually remove Kimmel off the air.

28:21He can recommend it, correct? Yes, and he can also have a sham trial at the FCC with a preordained outcome to take away the ABC licenses. That would get appealed. And then that would get appealed. I mean, this would take forever for that to actually be implemented. It's instantly appealable. And it just becomes a legal fight. And Disney will ultimately win this legal fight. But the question is, how much is this going to annoy them? How much is it going to lead to the discovery process or Brendan Carr getting a platform to attack Disney, which they don't love? You know, Disney's one of those brands where they are for everybody and they have multiple businesses that depend on red states and blue states attending the parks so they don't like it when the government is on a soapbox attacking them and that's what this is ultimately going to be because it's not i mean my prediction is they are going to spank the government if this actually goes to some kind of appeal and even the conservative commentators on this subject are lining up behind disney ted cruz and some of the Republican lawmakers are like, what are you doing now in their defense?

29:26Brendan Carr says this is about DEI and not about whatever Jimmy Kimmel may have said on the show. Even on DEI, they lose also because Disney is smart enough to not have smoking guns about exactly what their preferences and hiring and stuff are going to be. I think they lose on that ground. And I think they lose on the First Amendment ground as well. I know there's been a lot of rumors about, oh, when is Kimmel going to step down and retire? He has to stay through Trump's presidency just because he's having too much fun fighting with him every six months. I honestly don't think this is that much fun for him.