In short
The episode of The Town focuses on Jimmy Kimmel’s return to ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live after Disney suspended production, and what the decision reveals about Disney leadership and the FCC/media-politics fight.
Guests
Lucas Shaw (Bloomberg, covers media/politics/entertainment reporting) and the show’s host Matt Bellany; other staff mentioned include producer Craig Horbeck and art editor Jesse Lopez.
Key claims
Disney suspended Kimmel to avoid inflaming a tense national moment and later reversed course after backlash, station-group pressure, and concerns about long-term fallout. The host argues Disney feared a “potential disaster” when FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr threatened station owners and when major station groups said they wouldn’t air the show.
Notable examples
Michael Eisner publicly asked “where is the leadership,” 400 stars backed Kimmel, and Sinclair initially planned to preempt Kimmel (and even run a Charlie Kirk special) before backing off. The episode also discusses potential implications for Bob Iger and Dana Walden’s leadership prospects, plus a brief NFL ratings segment about Nielsen’s new measurement system.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOKimmel's Return: The Decision
2:01 to 4:14
Discussion on Jimmy Kimmel's return and Disney's statement regarding the show.
“Today, we got the statement from Disney about Jimmy Kimmel Live.”
Backlash and Disney's Response
4:14 to 7:53
Exploration of the public backlash against Disney and its impact on Kimmel's return.
“And we did wait and we were rewarded with the Disney news.”
The Implications of Kimmel's Situation
7:53 to 12:40
Analysis of the implications for Disney, Kimmel, and the media landscape.
“All over the world, I'm getting emails and calls from people.”
Kimmel's Returning Show and Backlash
14:01 to 14:50
Discussing the implications of Kimmel's return to the show amidst controversy.
“Well, that's the huge question here, because I got a preview of what he was going to say before he was told not to say it on Wednesday's show.”
Impact on Iger and Disney's Image
14:51 to 17:46
Analyzing how the recent events affect Bob Iger and Disney's reputation.
“Wednesday and they have just simply come to an agreement.”
Legal and Licensing Challenges Ahead
17:47 to 21:48
Exploring potential legal issues and Disney's approach to Trump and licensing.
“posture, I think it then it actually could be something of a turning point.”
Legal and Licensing Challenges Ahead
21:49 to 22:34
Exploring potential legal issues and Disney's approach to Trump and licensing.
“But Disney just seems to be willing now to take that hit both politically and economically in order to stand up for this principle that they have articulated.”
Legal and Licensing Challenges Ahead
22:38 to 23:11
Exploring potential legal issues and Disney's approach to Trump and licensing.
“Because though they have the same name, they've got a whole new energy.”
Dana Walden's CEO Prospects
23:12 to 25:52
Examining Dana Walden's chances for CEO amid current controversies.
“I was wondering if you just intentionally skipped over that.”
Future Implications for Kimmel's Show
25:53 to 28:00
Speculating on the future viewership and impact of Kimmel's show.
“where kind of the only bad press Josh has gotten was that big New York Times story about how the parks are not affordable anymore.”
Show all 12 chapters
Analyzing Kimmel’s Opening Night Impact
28:00 to 29:50
Discussion about the potential viewership dynamics for Jimmy Kimmel's return and the impact of Bob Iger's decisions.
“And I feel like a lot of people are going to show up for the opening and drop off.”
NFL Ratings and Big Data Challenges
29:50 to 33:58
Exploration of the new Nielsen ratings system and its implications for NFL viewership.
“Honestly, I am a little confused by what I'm seeing so far.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00If you care about Hollywood, and I assume you do if you're listening to The Town, you should really be getting the whole story about Hollywood. That's what you get with Puck. I'm a founding partner at Puck, and I write a newsletter called What I'm Hearing. It's got exclusive news for insiders and analysis of the biggest stories. Puck has a bunch of great journalists. We just hired Kim Masters, who also covers Hollywood from the inside, plus media, sports, fashion, politics, and finance. It's a must-have for plugged-in people. Fans of the town get a discount on the description page of this episode or at puck.news slash the town.
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1:52Just go to linkedin.com slash the town. That's linkedin.com slash the town. Terms and conditions apply. It is Monday, September 22nd. Jimmy Kimmel is back. Our long national nightmare is over. Today, we got the statement from Disney about Jimmy Kimmel Live. I will just read it in full. Last Wednesday, we made the decision to suspend production on the show to avoid further inflaming a tense situation at an emotional moment for our country. It is a decision we made because we felt some of the comments were ill-timed and thus insensitive. We have spent the last days having thoughtful conversations with Jimmy, and after those conversations, we reached the decision to return the show on Tuesday.
2:38Okay, that's it. No statement from Kimmel, nothing further from Bob Iger or Dana Walden at Disney. my understanding is the three of them talked all weekend of course the pressure was really building on disney we talked with bill carter on thursday about everything that led to this suspension charlie kirk comment the right wing backlash kimmel's unwillingness to alter what he wanted to say on the show addressed the controversy and disney's ultimate decision to pause the show quote indefinitely indelicate language there since then all the hollywood gills put out statements. People were canceling their Disney Plus and Hulu.
3:11Earlier today, a group of 400 stars backed Kimmel. And even Michael Eisner, the former CEO of Disney, he weighed in asking, where is the leadership? So yes, lots of pressure on Bob Iger. And ultimately, I think his sensitivity to criticism and ultimately his legacy is what pushed this over the top. We taped this before Sinclair, one of the station groups, said that it will not bring Kimmel back and it will preempt it. discussions are ongoing with Disney, they said. But lots of factors and still many question marks about how this will all play out with the FCC and Brendan Carr, who have pledged to police Kimmel the, quote, easy way or the hard way, as well as the affiliates, the advertisers, and perhaps most importantly, what will Kimmel say tomorrow on his show?
3:57For that, we've got Lucas Schaar, Monday guy here, for the Jimmy Kimmel debate, why he's back, and all the implications. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.
4:12Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg a little later today because obviously we knew something was up and we were kind of hinted to wait. And we did wait and we were rewarded with the Disney news. And now we are going to discuss all things Jimmy Kimmel. Welcome, Lucas. Great to be here. Didn't wreck my morning at all. All right. No pleasantries today. No discussion of Clayton Kershaw's final home game. We're getting right into the big news. Disney, Jimmy Kimmel, and the settlement that just came over, the emails. I read the statement in the intro. There are a number of different ways this could have played out.
4:50Kimmel could have left in a fiery tirade about how Disney has screwed him. They could have moved him to Hulu. They could have come to some agreement with the affiliates where the affiliates put out a statement. We are taping this where we have not seen the affiliates' response to this. We have not seen FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr's response to this. But we know that Disney made the decision to bring Kimmel back. So my question to you is, why? How did this break this way? Because they got so much negative publicity. You think it was that? You think they were hell-bent on keeping him off the air?
5:31No, look, I think if people like Ted Cruz and Andrew Schultz were actually just as influential in this, I would imagine, as any talent. I think, look, they saw a potential disaster for them when Brendan Carr went on Benny Johnson's podcast and threatened them and threatened station owners. And then they had two of the biggest station groups saying that they weren't going to offer the show. And Kimmel didn't want to back down from what he said. And if anything, they felt he was going to make it worse. So I think they made a very hasty move to take him down, which really killed them in the short run.
6:07In a bad statement, with just putting out the statement saying he is preempted indefinitely with no explanation, no saying, oh, we want to have him back, but we're going to discuss this. It sounded like he was getting the guillotine. Yeah. If you talk to people, that was Wednesday, I believe. If you talk to people Wednesday night, a lot of people were like, the show's done. It's not coming back. And over the next couple of days, that started to change. And you could feel from people at Disney that by Thursday and certainly by Friday and Saturday, they were like, we got to get this guy back on the air.
6:39And you believe that the backlash was the primary factor? I think what they will say, it was a principled decision and that they never planned for him to go off permanently and all of those things. Yeah. And to their credit, they were saying that on Wednesday and Thursday. They were. Correct. They were consistent all along that they were not taking him off permanently. But I do think that the reason they felt the need to get him back as quickly as possible was because, look, they had some very important constituencies. They had the creative community in Hollywood. They had protests at their gate in Burbank.
7:12Yeah, they had customers who were upset. I don't know how real the cancel Disney Plus movement was, but it's not a good thing for a media company when that's happening. I normally discount that stuff, but I had multiple friends of mine who have nothing to do with the business say, we canceled Disney because of this. They were so pissed. I don't know if that's meaningful. I know we don't use personal anecdotes to make larger points. Anecdotal evidence. But it just got caught up in this much larger conversation about freedom of speech and Trump's war on the press. Yes. And they, I don't think, anticipated the level of vitriol directed at them.
7:48I mean, I don't know about you, but I get approached sometimes to do other media hits. I have never been approached by more media outlets to talk about a story than this one. All over the world, I'm getting emails and calls from people. This is a global story because it is emblematic of Trump's war on institutions and on the media and all of the things that have dominated the media coverage for the past week. It is telling for me that Kimmel stories have been like the most read stories on our website all weekend. People can't get enough of it. Yeah. So I agree with you. And I think the public backlash really accelerated the desire to get him back ASAP because the longer this dragged on, the less likely it was going to be an easy path to resume the show.
8:35They were paying the staff. They had all of these conservative people come out in favor of bringing him back, which I think was very influential. I was being serious when I saw Ted Cruz say something. Yeah, and Rand Paul. I don't think their comments necessarily influenced Disney, but they are indicative that this is an issue where Trump maybe didn't have like the full party behind him. Yeah, and Disney knows that. They see that as a weakness. If this was the entire Republican establishment that was saying, no, Disney, you better keep this guy off the air or else. But it wasn't that. There was a weakness in that armor, and they saw that.
9:13I also think Michael Eisner was a key factor here. We're dealing with Bob Iger here, and you and I both know Bob. Very high respect for Bob, one of the greatest entertainment CEOs of all time. He's very thin-skinned. He does not like to be criticized. He does not like to have his legacy questioned or his judgment or leadership questioned. And to have Michael Eisner go public on Twitter, his predecessor, very complicated relationship with him, Eisner does not talk publicly about the company, does not criticize Eisner, Iger, he went online and said, where is the leadership? And if I'm Iger, that is a dagger.
9:55Yeah, it was very interesting in reading the coverage, which I felt like at the beginning, whether intentionally or not, it was sort of like this was Dana Walden's decision. But obviously, that decision does not get made without Bob Iger being a part of it, right? Yeah, and he was there all weekend in the talks. It was Dana, Bob and Jimmy. But at a certain point, I feel like the press coverage also tilted from initially a little more focused on Dana to an intense focus on Bob and what this meant for his legacy and what a bad look it was for him. People see him as someone with a spine and with a moral center.
10:32Right. Can you believe his wife is the dean of a journalism school and he's pulling this nonsense at Disney? And why should they be hosting a fundraiser for women in media at their house when he is crapping all over ABC News and Jimmy Kimmel? Yeah, it became a big enough priority for him that he had to get it done as soon as possible. I think they would have liked him back on the air today, but that just was too soon. Yeah. And I know that there was a lot of back and forth today over whether, you know, what the statement was going to say, whether Kimmel was going to say something, all the logistics.
11:04And to do this, not knowing what the affiliates are going to say, I am told there has been some back channeling with the affiliates. There's been a bunch. Yeah, they were aware of what was going to happen today. But Disney is not aware at this taping of what the affiliates are going to do and what Brendan Carr is going to do. And most importantly, what Donald Trump is going to do here because that's all coming. I feel like they only need one of the two station groups. Oh, really? I think they'll be totally fine if only one doesn't have it. But if both of them have it, it does hurt. It hurts. But I think at this point, you have drawn the line in the sand and you have said, we are willing to take that financial hit because the larger problem, if we don't, is that the entire creative community comes after us and we start losing talent partnerships and we look like the boogeyman here and then Trump is emboldened to come after The View or other shows or extort us in other ways.
12:08We have found where the line is on these media companies and this is it. So they see the larger point, I think, whereas maybe a week ago, the larger point was, let's protect the greater interests of the Walt Disney Company and our FCC licenses and all the deals we want to do for the NFL network and for other things that may come before the FCC, now they are seeing the opposite, which is if we don't stand up to these guys, they're going to extort us on every single thing we do. What do you think the Trump car response is? Because they don't back down. Oh, this is a trap because this is going to air after they've already made them.
12:47So we're going to look dumb if we're wrong. Fair, fair, fair. But of course, I believe he's going to put out some kind of tweet or statement saying this is an abomination. what Jimmy Kimmel said is absolutely offensive to so many millions of Americans. And for Disney to back him, it just shows you what kind of scumbags are running these media companies. And we need to stand up to them and join me and join Donald Trump in standing up to these scumbags that run the media companies. And they just put Disney at the center of a big old culture war. Yes, exactly. And you know, I don't know if it'll go that far.
13:21Maybe Trump says boycott the parks. Maybe Trump says cancel Disney Plus. Maybe he does something like that. I don't know. How many different spokespeople do you think went into writing the Disney statement today? I think several probably died during the process and their memories will live on as contributing to the wonderful statement that was totally benign and didn't say anything and did not include any quotes from the executives. No, I don't know. I mean, the interesting thing is that I think a lot of the reps were sidelined on the actual talks. And it really just was Jimmy with Bob and Dana.
13:57And how many revisions will there be of his statement at the top of the show on Tuesday? Well, that's the huge question here, because I got a preview of what he was going to say before he was told not to say it on Wednesday's show. And yeah, it was a walk back a little bit. It was a clarification of his comment. And we discussed this with Bill Carter. And he went further than that, though. He talked about Fox News. He talked about a bunch of different things that Disney found to be over the line and the right wing media and how it's weaponized and all the things that they felt would make this situation worse.
14:38Who knows if he has backed down it all. I mean, as far as we know, the leverage went towards Kimmel because of the backlash that was out there. Disney needed to resolve this. So maybe he's doing exactly what he wanted to do last Wednesday and they have just simply come to an agreement. Or maybe he has agreed to say, I'm sorry, or to say, I understand how people misinterpreted this or something a little more contrite. I think we're going to land short of an apology, but there will be some contrition. yeah and maybe not call out fox news by name maybe not say that the right-wing media is out to get me even though everybody knows they are so do you think there was a scenario where kimmel was like screw this why would i even want to come back because this is he had not going away this is going to become a problem he's not going to change his act there's going to be something else that he says that enrages the right so why does he want to come back well a couple of big reasons one from everything I've heard, not to like, for people who work for the show, like, he genuinely cares about the staff.
15:47And if he just took it off the air, he would be putting a couple hundred people out of work right away. And I don't think he wanted to do that. I also think, for a more personal reason for him, like, does he want his show to end because fucking Donald Trump told him to end it? Right. Right? Like, much as he might not want to deal with the pain that could come, you know, going forward, at least this way, he can sort of end on... what could be or should be his terms as opposed to what the president says. Yeah. By the way, big loser here, the ringer. Kimmel not doing a ringer podcast just yet. Give him a couple of years.
16:21Come on. Yeah. Do you think that any of this sticks to Iger or Walden long-term? All right, so you want to talk about that. Let's talk about that now. I do think it sticks a little bit to both of them. And I know we have short memories in this country. I know if this dies down in two weeks, we will have largely forgotten it. But there was a moment there where the the Iger gravitas was being tossed around in the mud, an entire 20 minute segment on John Oliver. It just I think it's going to leave a little bit of a stink on him, even though he is now standing up and we'll see how this plays out. it just with all the stuff that's going on and all the things that he has felt he needed to do to placate the new administration it feels like he takes a little bit of a hit here i don't know because i look i guess it depends on how the rest of his tenure plays out with regard to trump because i i do i do think that the abc settlement hurt him and the company a little bit and has gotten worse in hindsight now that it's come home to roost in other ways.
17:34Right. And they were part of this larger movement of companies choosing to just sort of pay Trump to make him go away, only to realize he wasn't going to go away. And so if this is a sign that they have sort of a slightly different approach and they are going to take a more aggressive posture, I think it then it actually could be something of a turning point. But if this is just like some, if every situation is going to be handled, sort of responding to the needs of the moment, then I think we have to see what comes next. Because as we've discussed, this is not the last time that Disney is suddenly going to be in some type of public fight with Trump.
18:13And it's not necessarily that Disney does not have to be a member of the resistance, right? It is not their job to stand after Trump. But it is the job of a media company to say, hey, you're the the president, you don't get to tell us who to put on the air, right? That's our decision. But are they going to fight litigation against Trump? Let's say he does move on their licenses and he does. Carr has been very careful to not get into specific legal fights that could be appealable or could lead to litigation or rulings that are unfavorable. He's sort of been doing this as like a bully that gets his way without having to do that.
18:51But here, Disney's now forcing his hand, and he may feel like they need to remove the license or move. I know it's very difficult. There's a whole process around that, and they would probably lose in court. Disney has an amazing case, as nearly every single legal commentator has noted. But does Disney want to fight years of litigation over this? I don't see Disney giving up its broadcast licenses, But it is worth noting that Brendan Carr earlier on Monday sort of walked back his comments, saying that he didn't say that he would pull the licenses that he said he would pull. Maybe Ben Shapiro called him.
19:29Also, Sinclair, which initially demanded that Disney make a donation to Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk's organization, and they were planning to run a Charlie Kirk special in the Kimmel slot. That actually didn't happen. They put that on YouTube. Unclear why that didn't happen. But maybe they are backing down a little bit on this. Yeah, I mean, Sinclair was the more aggressive. Though Nexstar was the first one to act, Sinclair was the more strident of the two and is sort of more widely known as having a conservative lean. What is there to be gained at this point from them not putting him on? Just because they had a lot of complaints from viewers?
20:09Or because they want to score points with the president? And the president's FCC chair is essentially telling them what to do. And they have$6 billion in deals that are pending. I mean, Nexstar has an actual deal, but Sinclair would like to merge as well. There's this opening for these companies to own a lot more stations than they do. And they don't want the FCC to put any blocks in place for that. So, of course, they are incentivized to fight. I mean, what's going to happen to that$6.2 billion deal if Nextstar says, you know what? We're okay with Disney now. We're going to air the show. They sort of have to follow through and not air it.
20:50Yes. Unlike Disney, Nextstar has no real compelling reason to stand up for Kimmel if Trump doesn't want them to. Yeah. And I just feel like it's going to be a difficult needle for them to thread if they want to bring this show back. And let's be honest, there are plenty of shows throughout the history of television that did not air on certain station groups. I mean, the example everyone uses is the Ellen I'm Gay episode. But that's a specific episode, not a show. But as John Oliver noted, there were stations in the South that wouldn't air Sesame Street because it had an interracial cast. So like there are lots of stations that just don't air certain things.
21:29There's precedent. Yeah, there's precedent. So maybe if Disney can work out the economics and now, you know, with Hulu and Disney Plus, there are other places where they could put the show. I just think that the financials on this, even if they're bad, they need to do it. Yeah, the affiliates don't matter. The show is back. Well, they do matter. But Disney just seems to be willing now to take that hit both politically and economically in order to stand up for this principle that they have articulated.
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22:48We're talking modern rooms with real reset mode vibes. Spaces that feel like your living room. Just a little more low-key chic. And dining done right, from breakfast to dinner and drinks. Whether you're traveling for work or getting away for a minute, it's comfort that hits different. So yeah, Holiday Inn. It's a new day and a new stay. Book your next day at HolidayInn.com. So we haven't gotten to Dana Walden. I was wondering if you just intentionally skipped over that. As you know, on the show, we have a recurring segment. Is this news good or bad for Dana Walden and her CEO succession dreams?
23:21I mean, there's not a world in which it's good. No. But how bad is it? I don't know how bad it is. So I had breakfast with a prominent Disney watcher this morning. This was before the news broke. But this person said, all right, put yourself in the shoes of someone in the Walt Disney board. And you know that if Dana Walden is named CEO, there's going to be a ton of news about it worldwide. I mean, it's new CEO of Disney, but first woman to lead this company in 100 years. It is a big deal if she gets that job. You don't think that news is going to cross the desk of Donald Trump. And she is already on his radar because of the Kamala Harris friendship and the ABC News stuff during the debates, which he blamed on her, I think, unfairly.
24:11But she is already on his radar. And if you're a board member looking at if she gets the top job, it's only going to enrage Trump. So would you do that knowing there's an alternative in Josh tomorrow? I think it's less about Trump and more how do you feel that she handled a really thorny situation, right? We talked about the initial kind of decision to preempt him and the statement that came out that probably wasn't the best statement, and then the need to spend the next several days sort of doing damage control and figuring out how to handle it. and at least for the last few days, the perception from the public has been that this was not handled well by Disney, right?
25:00But is that an Iger issue or a Dana issue? It's both, but it's under her, like if there was a huge issue at the parks, right? Yeah. If a kid got eaten by an alligator is the example I use. It would become an Iger issue, but it is still a Josh issue. And so if it is something that does not go well, it generally will not reflect well upon the leadership. Now, I can't speak for Disney's board of directors. I can't speak for Bob Iger or Dana in the moment. They may feel like, okay, we had a rough couple days, but we got to a point where we ended up standing up for our principles and this is going to end up playing out well.
25:35And maybe that's how they feel. But the last few days, at least in the moment, it was clear that people did not think that Disney was handling it well. And that reflects poorly on both Bob and Dana. I guess, fortunately for Bob, he's not competing for a job. Right. Whereas she is. And you have that at the same time where kind of the only bad press Josh has gotten was that big New York Times story about how the parks are not affordable anymore. Right. Which wasn't great either. No. But you know what? I think it depends how this plays out from now on. Totally. In the next month or two. Because I said on this very show last week, if she navigates this and this goes away, maybe it's a positive, ultimately.
26:17If in six months, We're talking about a rejuvenated Jimmy Kimmel Live that maybe brought in some new audience and Kimmel's this martyr and everyone's showing up for his show now. Maybe it ends up being a positive, but maybe this turns into a complete disaster, both politically and economically, based on a decision that was made and the way that it was handled not being great. I mean, the one thing someone asked me is, what happened on Tuesday? This happened on a Monday night, and it was Wednesday where it all came to a head. Because they clearly didn't think it was a problem. Right, and that's a misstep.
Read the full transcript
26:54And I don't want to get into, you know, who did what, but this was bubbling up on social media on Tuesday. And Disney could have maybe nipped it before it got to this crisis point on Wednesday where they were racing against time before that night's episode. and then maybe they got out, could have got out before the FCC commissioner weighed in. Do you really think that there's going to be a surge in viewership for this show? You're stepping on my button on this episode. I'm going to make you predict. What is Tuesday night's show going to rate? Total viewers. Total viewers. Those are two different questions.
27:32I think there will be a huge bump Tuesday night. I do not necessarily think that that will sustain. An average episode of Kimmel gets about 1.6, 1.7 million viewers. And that's live plus same day. Now we know it gets a lot more in YouTube videos and all the other places that Jimmy has value. But what are we putting the over-under on for the viewership of this episode? Well, the other thing that I guess is worth considering, right, is that the viewership factors in the full thing. And I feel like a lot of people are going to show up for the opening and drop off. Yeah. I don't know. Let's put the over-under at four?
28:11Four to five. I mean, because the thing, I think the number of people who may tune in just for the opening could be pretty high, but it's hard to know with these in kind of the social era because you'll be able to watch the clip on the internet almost immediately. We're going to see the headlines before the episode even airs because they have to tape it. And there will be media and people in there that are reporting it out. Yeah. So ultimately, the biggest factor here, I believe, is the Bob Iger factor. I think the fact that he was getting ripped by both the business community and the creative community and the political community and his very strong belief in his own integrity and the appearance of integrity and not wanting to be a pariah in that community.
28:59and I'm not saying it's fake. I think he actually does care about this stuff and very much cares about his legacy. And when he saw this going sideways, I think it accelerated the initiative to get Jimmy back. I would not be surprised if what Kimmel says on Tuesday is very similar to what he was going to say last Wednesday. But with maybe slightly less antagonism. Maybe, yeah. And maybe not calling out Fox by name. not that he can win over Fox. They're going to pounce and do whatever they want. But this is all dependent on how the Trump people respond. And if this becomes bigger or if they have their bluff called and they back away, it would be the first time they back down, right?
29:44Yes. Certainly with the media companies and maybe they start going after Comcast next. We don't know. All right, Lucas, thanks very much. Thanks, Matt. We are back with the call sheet. Craig, today we're doing NFL ratings. Honestly, I am a little confused by what I'm seeing so far. This new Nielsen big data panel system that they introduced this year for football was supposed to raise ratings. Most predictions were like 7 % or 8 % across the board, just been counting more out-of-home viewership, being more accurate in the people that they do count. So far, it's been about half that. Most of the games so far average are up about 4%.
30:27So, yes, it's been boosted. And so far, the season numbers are good. And there was a record turnout for the Fox game, the Eagles versus the Chiefs in week two. But for the most part, I think this has been a little bit disappointing. Does this factor in every kind of way you can watch the game? Like, are we talking about prime video for Thursday nights, like streaming, the game on YouTube? Is this factoring in all of that, plus bar and restaurant viewing all of that? Anything Nielsen measures. They now have this big data panel that they use for me. How is this different from two, three years ago?
31:01What is new in this big data panel? It's somewhat murky. They say that they are better counting via surveys and on the ground reporting exactly who's watching. They started counting out-of-home viewership a couple years ago, which was a huge blind spot because obviously people watch sports in bars and restaurants and such. and now they say that they have a better measurement system for this and it naturally is going to lead to more people being counted it's just not as many as the league and the broadcast partners would have thought yeah to be honest i'm not ready to say that that's because the nfl is its popularity is slowing or anything like that no no no no no to me this is just i don't really trust any of these like data metrics and and ratings mechanisms whatever they have You'd rather go back to people filling out a little booklet of what they're watching, which is what Nielsen used to do?
31:56No. To be honest, I feel like we've never been able to truly figure out ratings, and it's all a projection. And so even if it says that they're slightly down, even though they have this new big data formula, I feel like it's hard for anyone to really trust what's going on if nobody actually knows. To be clear, they're not down. They're just not up as much as people thought. Yeah, the projections are down. It's down from projections. Right. So my prediction today is that the season will be up 5%. The overall NFL regular season will be up 5 % by the end of the season. And they'll recover a little bit, but it won't be the 8 % to 9 % gains that people may have thought.
32:33Do you think the splintering of platforms to watch the NFL on is perhaps to blame for this? Maybe. Yeah, we'll see as it gets more complicated as the season goes along. and there's foreign games early in the morning and then there's the YouTube exclusive or Peacock exclusive or whatever it is. I think the impact of them slicing and dicing more is that it is a little bit more confusing for people to find games, but the NFL has always balanced that correctly. You can still watch your local team for free on over-the-air broadcast and you can still watch the vast majority of them through your cable bundle.
33:10It's just now there's some extra stuff. I bet you it picks up I think the start of the year Has been weird There was the Brazil game There was a delay In the kickoff on Thursday There was a YouTube exclusive game There's a lot of international stuff Yeah but there's been A lot of big matchups too Yeah but there's always Big matchups I think it's been harder To watch a lot of these games I think they're betting On international I think the Brazil game Was weird And didn't perform As well internationally Because of the time Of the game I would bet that It lands where the projections Originally thought At 8-9 % Alright so you're going going to take the over on 5%.
33:44Yeah, I think 8 to 9, wherever they projected it, is right. And I think this has just been kind of a messy start just because of how much they've splintered a lot of these big games to start the season. Alright, well you are the football expert. Okay, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Lucas Shaw, producer Craig Horbeck, art editor Jesse Lopez, and I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week.
From the publisher
Matt is joined by Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw to discuss the announcement that Jimmy Kimmel will be returning to ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ this Tuesday night, and the various ramifications that could follow. They talk about how Disney has handled this situation, the possibility of ABC affiliates refusing to air the show, former Disney CEO Michael Eisner's criticism of current CEO Bob Iger, and how this affects Iger’s legacy (02:47). Matt finishes the show with a prediction about the season-long ratings for the 2025 NFL season (27:22).
For a 20 percent discount on Matt’s Hollywood insider newsletter, ‘What I’m Hearing ...,’ click here. Email us your thoughts! thetown@spotify.com Host: Matt Belloni Guest: Lucas Shaw Producers: Craig Horlbeck and Jessie Lopez Theme Song: Devon Renaldo
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