Oscar Noms ‘26! Five Big Takeaways and Industry Narratives.

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1:17So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas. It is Thursday, January 22nd. It's the Oscar nominations. Not a lot of huge surprises this year. The prognosticators were mostly right. Sinners got the most nominations with 16. That breaks the record held by All About Eve and Titanic and La La Land. But one battle after another scored 13 noms itself. Probably still the favorite for Best Picture. Huge for Warner Brothers, a total of 30 between those two movies and a nom for weapons. Most of any studio or streamer. Remember, these are the movies that the Warner's film studio chiefs almost got fired over.

1:56the company's on the verge of being devoured by Netflix, got 16 nominations, including Frankenstein and Train Dreams for Best Picture. F1 got a Best Picture nomination too. Everyone online seems to be pissed about that. Not sure why. Wicked 2 was totally snubbed. Kate Hudson got a nomination for Song Sung Blue. Big win for her. As always, the Oscar noms give us a window of sorts into the state of Hollywood, especially considering the leading studios in the process of being sold to either Netflix or Paramount, maybe. So lots to discuss. And we've got Kyle Buchanan back here to talk about it all.

2:28Kyle's been on the show before. He writes the awards season column for the New York Times. He takes great pictures of the sad food they serve at award shows. You should follow him for that. And he goes to even more awards events than I do. So today it's the Oscar nominations and the five biggest industry narratives. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

2:52All right, we are here with Kyle Buchanan, who's a reporter at The New York Times and the awards season columnist known as The Projectionist. Welcome, Kyle. Welcome back. Thanks for having me, Matt. You are conflicted today. You're doing your Oscar nomination thing from Sundance. Where does The New York Times stay at Sundance? in a crowded condo full of journalists, which is why I am coming to you from the Park City Library. Okay. So you don't do the hotel, the awful hotels in Park City. You do condo. That's probably the best move. Yeah. Although we'll see next year when they go to Boulder. Yeah, I know.

3:29It's going to be a grand, a land grab for everyone to get the best Airbnbs. Very much so. All right. So we're talking Oscar Noms. You were up early. I slept in. Oh, rub it in. rub it in. I know. Listen, I had PTSD from 15 years of waking up at five. Sometimes I didn't even sleep because THR goes nuts. It's like our Christmas morning. And I am very happy to be able to sleep in and not do the rush in the morning. But I have reviewed all the nominations. I reviewed all the snubs lists, all of the quote unquote analysis from the experts. And we're going to discuss. So we're going to get into the big narratives.

4:09But first, is this an actual race now for Best Picture? I mean, obviously, people had thought that one battle after another was going to run away with this thing. It's been winning all the precursor awards. It's got the most noms for the actors awards. It's got the most noms for directors. Like, is it now a race now that Sinners broke the record for most noms? I do think if there were ever going to be any sort of competition, Sinners just showed it can compete today. I mean, to not just break the record, not just tie the all-time record, not just break the all-time record, but blow past the all-time record to get 16 nominations, more than the 14 that had held since the All About Eve days.

4:53That's a pretty incredible feat. Although there is one more category now. There's one more category, but even without it, they still would have gotten it. And I think that really shows how strong that film is. And so the next few weeks are not going to be about, well, this is an open and shut case for One Battle. It's going to be about that second look that Sinners is about to get. I still think One Battle tends to have the trajectory that you want in a Best Picture winner. But I actually am sort of curious to see if Sinners can compete now. It's so crazy that they're both from the same studio.

5:28And that's my first narrative. I mean, we're going to do like five industry narratives from the noms. And my first one is just the studio narrative. I mean, what a flex by Warner Brothers. These are two movies, Sinners in One Battle, that almost got the studio heads fired. Like Mike and Pam almost got fired for making these movies. And now they combine for 29 Oscar nominations. And one of them is going to win Best Picture. It's pretty insane of a flex. Yeah, it's incredible. And that happens so rarely. I mean, the last time I can really think about a studio having maybe the two strongest movies in the Oscar season would be when Searchlight had Shape of Water and Three of Billboards in 2017.

6:11But you can't argue that these are two much stronger movies with a much stronger nomination stally. That was not a two-horse race like this is. I mean, I know Hamnet has fans and there's the Marty Supreme crew, but this is really a two-horse race, it seems like, for picture at least. Yeah, it is. And I feel like this is the sort of year that, you know, that the Oscars might have hoped that they got with Barbenheimer, you know? I mean, Oppenheimer ultimately was the strong movie there. But these are two really strong, you know, well-made studio movies that got their due, you know? And I feel like it kind of repudiates that very tired argument that the Oscars are out of step with the mainstream moviegoer.

6:52Well, we'll get to that. We'll get to the box office. But on the studio front, I asked my guru, Michael Lasker, the manager, if he could think of when this happened last. And he went all the way back to 1974 with Godfather 2 and Chinatown, both being from Paramount. I think you could make the argument that 2007, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, both competing for picture. Both are from Paramount. Maybe Million Dollar Baby and Aviator at the 2004 Oscars. But I don't think both of those were strong contenders. This is really a unique situation for Warners. And it's going to present some issues for them in phase two of the campaign.

7:36I know they have some different consultants working on the individual films. But where do you put your money? Do you put it both equally? Do you say, well, one battle is the frontrunner and it has been for months, so let's go all in there? Like, you got to appease both filmmakers. What do you do here? You're right. And I would note that even though this feels like a unique situation now, it might not be a unique situation in the future when we're cruising to a place where there are fewer studios. So, of course, there are going to be studios that have, you know, the frontrunners or gobble up the lion's share of nominations when there, you know, aren't as many to go around.

8:12Well, that's the other narrative here is that this all comes amid Warner Brothers having been sold already to Netflix and now fighting for its life, you know, fighting for who's going to own it between Paramount and Netflix. Weirdly, Paramount put out its proxy today and Warner Brothers, you know, amid all the Oscars hoopla, they had to put out a statement defending their Netflix deal again, saying this is not a new offer from Paramount. We are sticking with the one that we already consummated. 93 % of our shareholders agree. Like that corporate conversation is not the one you want to be having on the morning of the Oscar nominations.

8:51And here we are. Do you think that the voters, the Academy members that are watching sort of dumbfounded as one of the original legacy studios gets auctioned off? Do you think that impacted their votes at all and said, you know what, we're going to go with these two big Warner Brothers movies as kind of a show of support for Warner's this year? I don't know if it's a specific show of support for Warner Brothers more than it's a specific show of support for that kind of studio movie, which is even more endangered, you know, Warner Brothers aside. The idea of a big auteur making a critically acclaimed blockbuster, even though we've had some good examples of recent vintage, it's not in vogue, right?

9:33Like, that's why Warner Brothers was under such scrutiny this past year. But the fact that those two movies are dominating the Oscar conversation, it really does remind me of the old days when really good, really successful studio films were what you would find in Best Picture. And I think that's what the Oscar voters are gravitating towards. Yeah, it's like what all of the people in the industry say they want. They don't want the Academy to keep honoring these tiny movies like Anora and the indie type movies. They want studios to be able to compete for Oscars. And here we go. Here's two front runners that are both studio movies.

10:08Let's be clear, though. One battle after another is not a blockbuster. That movie lost money in theaters, gross$200 million on a$130,$140 million budget. Sinners was about$90,$100 million on the budget. So that is an incredibly profitable film. And that gets to that box office narrative. That's my second one, is that if you make the right kind of movie, the box office can help it get into Best Picture. That's always been true at the Oscars. I think everything everywhere all at once got the Oscar love that it got because, in part, it was a huge hit for A24 for their standards. And I think that that was a factor this year.

10:47The fact that Sinners connected so well propelled it into the box office conversation. Same with Oppenheimer, to be honest. Yeah, and I would push back on one thing, Matt. Was one battle after another profitable? That's a whole other story. but was it a blockbuster? Yeah, I think it was. It was shaped like it. It made a lot more money than almost everything in the Oscar conversation this year. People saw it. That's the big difference. It's not in Nora. People actually saw this one. Yes, real people saw it and certainly where we live in LA, everybody saw it. I mean, people were going back to see it once, twice, three times.

11:20If you hadn't seen it in VistaVision, you were a fake fan, you know? So I think there is this narrative that that movie can boast. Yeah, okay. So I've got another narrative is the young actor narrative. We got Timothee Chalamet, now is probably the front runner for best actor. I'm still team Leo. Love Leo. Never going to vote against Leo. But Timmy, legit contender. He already won the Globe. He's got the SAG nom, the Actors Award nom. These are the kinds of nominees the Academy says they want. They want to appeal to young men. They want young men to care about the Oscars. And as you've written in The Times, there's an abysmal track record of awarding young male actors at the Oscars.

12:12Why is that? It's really crazy. I mean, truly still, you know, after the long history of the Oscars, the only man under 30 who has ever won Best Actor is Adrian Brody for The Pianist. Timmy just turned 30. He'll still be one of the youngest ones to ever do it if he wins. And I feel like we'd all think that he is a sure shot to win if it weren't for the fact that they always penalize these guys. I mean, they obviously don't have that problem with ingenues, you know, young women. Emma Stone, Jennifer Lawrence, they got Oscars coming off the fireplace. But if you are a good looking young guy, I think that a lot of the older male Oscar voters just aren't inclined to support you.

12:51They're like, they hate you. They resent you. They resent you. They want to be you. You've got a beautiful girlfriend. You've got success. You've got all these things. They're not gravitating towards you at the Oscar parties. They'd rather go meet Emma Stone or Jennifer Lawrence or whoever. So I actually worried about this streak to the extent that when I was, you know, readying my snubs and surprises and just sort of like accounting for what could happen, I was afraid they might not nominate Michael B. Jordan. Oh, God. No, that was an obvious one. You play twins, you get nominated. Yeah, but I was still worried, you know, like he should be nominated.

13:26also like you know I mean to have Michael B. Jordan in the mix this year to have Timothee Chalamet potentially winning these are the things that I think Oscar voters need to do not just to keep pace with reality but to send a message to those young men probably the most checked out demographic when it comes to the Oscars that yeah okay we have a new class of movie stars you know if the Oscars are supporting them they're late to the party general audiences are already but come on like start like getting with the program What happened with Paul Meskel? I thought he was a shoo-in for Hamnet. Yeah, I mean, I think Paul Meskel fell victim to the exact same thing that happened with Chase Infinity from One Battle After Another, where they were both sort of borderline lead supporting cases.

14:08In the case of Chase, they went with lead actress because they thought that field was so thin that she could get in. She didn't. She was almost certainly drawing a lot of supporting votes too, and I think that kind of like wrecked her case. Yeah, to be clear, you can say where you're campaigning someone, but voters can pick you in any category. Yeah, they can when it comes to the Oscars, you know, Golden Globes and SAG voters, they'll do what you tell them, but not in the case of the Oscars. And we've had plenty of examples in the past, whether it's Kate Winslet getting a Best Actress nomination for the reader, or both the leads of Judas and the Black Messiah ending up in supporting, where it's just wherever you draw the most votes is where you go.

14:46And I think with Paul, he was probably getting best actor votes. And they just didn't have him around maybe enough because he's been working on the Beatles movie to press that case for supporting. But yeah, I think I think that's the peril of being so borderline. They screened the crap out of that movie, Hamnet, though. There was a screening every night with some big filmmaker doing a Q &A. I feel bad for Chloe Zhao. She's like literally done like hundreds of Q &As at this point. Yeah, but don't feel too, too bad for her. She still got everything she wanted. She did. You know what? It works. A movie like that, where you might turn it off on the portal, if you sit through Hamnet, you get to the end and you love it.

15:25Yeah. And that's, you know, that cathartic outpouring of grief that you feel in the theater is something that really, really works in a theater. All right. So would you put money on Timmy or would you put money on Leo or Michael B. Jordan? I'm putting money on Timmy. I think that with Leo, look, I mean, Leo is fantastic in the movie. I think that ever since he won the Oscar, they sort of perpetually underrate him. He's been great in other things, like he was great in the Tarantino and Brad Pitt got all the love. I think that they just said, you're good and they're going to be wrestling with the Timmy situation.

15:59I think the only thing that would really present some sort of challenge to Timmy is if like a Wagner Mora or even Ethan Hawke kind of is able to mount some steam because those older voters who just don't want to vote for like the young romantic guy would have an alternative. They'd have a, you know, somebody that feels more their speed. Speaking of older voters, I want to talk about the dad contingent of the Academy, which is still there. It used to be that the stat was what, like 80 % of the Academy was white men over 50 or something like that. Those days are gone. They have diversified that age down and made it more diverse and more international.

16:40Not completely, but they have changed the makeup of the Academy. Still, almost every year, there's some dad movie head scratcher. And this year, it is F1 in best picture. I like it. I think that it's great. There should be a place for these well-done, crowd-pleasing, blockbuster-style movies. But there was some online vitriol today over, including from yourself. You said, come on. Yeah, there should be a place for movies like that. It's called the Producers Guild Awards. The Oscars are better. The best picture category. Are we going to go back and give an Oscar to Gone in 60 Seconds? No, but this was a much better, well-done movie.

17:21Like, Gone in 60 Seconds is genre. This was like a big blockbuster style movie. Brad Pitt's been nominated and won before. Joe Kaczynski got nominated for Top Gun Maverick. Like, this is not out of nowhere. Apple did a campaign for it. Yeah, I mean, all those things. Yeah, yes, they campaigned for it. But again, like, look at the material. If you wanted a big studio hit, another one in that Best Picture category, Weapons was right there. Yeah, that's horror, though. To me, it's baffling. I don't think F1 is going to stand the test of time. And yeah, yeah, Weapons is horror. but you know so was the substance and that made it in so to me i'd much rather see weapons parasite is based there's a lot of parallels between sinners and parasite yeah i don't i don't think oscar voters are as afraid of genre i mean given that there's there now seems to be a jerry brockheimer slot in best picture but like i don't know if i'd call it real man get real come on i didn't know they loved brad pitt's abs that much the other dad nominee is probably probably Kate Hudson, right?

18:23Like she is someone that the over 50 crowd, you know, they grew up with her and the Goldie Hawn and almost famous. And now she's in her forties and she did good work in this movie that was not well received otherwise. I actually put money on Kate Hudson because the odds were pretty good that if she got nominated, I would win. And I came in the money because I knew there's the dad contingent that would vote for her. It's the Bohemian Rhapsody contingent. Yeah, I mean, it's a down the middle pitch. I have to say, actually, like a lot of non-industry civilians want to talk to me about this movie.

18:55But just like you said, Matt, like Kate Hudson knows how to get the industry on her side. I remember going to a recent screening of this at Soho House and who sat behind me but Leonardo DiCaprio and Al Pacino. And you have not lived until you're watching Song Song Blue, where a lot of like tragic twists happen. And you hear Leonardo DiCaprio muttering, Jesus Christ, every time one of those things happens. when that happened I thought yeah I think Kate can get in I assume that wasn't Jesus Christ this movie is amazing I think it was more like Jesus Christ what these people have to go through yeah we don't want to give anything away but yeah that to me that was not a surprise Focus shout out to Focus Features they got three best actress nominees first time that's happened since 2002 in the Miramax days they got Jesse Buckley for Hamnet they got Kate Hudson for Song Song Blue and they also got Emma Stone for begonia.

19:50They sort of took that searchlight spot for the specialty division nominees this year. Searchlight got zero nominations. Can't remember the last time that happened.

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21:59That sounds delicious. Get savings with yellow sale signs storewide and everyday low prices on 365 brand items. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring. Save at Whole Foods Market. The other narrative that I noticed was the whole Cannes pipeline. We've been talking for years now about how the internationalization of the Academy has led to Cannes, the Cannes Film Festival being the primary launch pad for nominations. And yes, Sentimental Value got in there. Secret Agent also premiered there, and that got a Best Picture nom as well. But it was just an accident, which actually won the Palme d 'Or at Cannes.

22:41that was snubbed for picture and director. Yeah. And the last three Palm winners all made it into picture and director. And Enora won. Yeah. You know, I did think maybe based on how weak that 10th slot appeared to be in Best Picture that it was just an accident could make it in. But the writing was also on the wall. I was talking to so many people who still have not watched it. Oh, really? It's great. I saw it at TIFF. It's so funny. I think that a lot of the other international films blew past it, especially in the final weeks. a lot of people were catching up with Secret Agent. They were not catching up with Jafar Panahi's film.

23:17And also, you know, honestly, I thought last year, Neon, who had the seat of Sacred Fig, another Iranian film that had a great personal narrative with its director, Mohamed Roussouloff, I thought that could have made a really potent shot at picture and director. And that didn't end up getting it either. So I don't know if it's a resistance to watch these Iranian films that maybe viewers perceive as homework or they're just not flashy or enticing enough or if maybe Neon's slate was just too strong and the other movies presented a better case. The Padahi film's a comedy though. It's a very easy watch.

23:55Yeah, but I don't know that people know that. That's true. I thought that he might get some votes because of the whole persecution thing in Iran that people might vote for him because they want to express support for him in his whole battle with the Iranian government. I thought so too. I was at a neon party just a couple weeks ago. And the only person who really made a beeline for Panahi was Hudson Williams from Hitted Rivalry. And sometimes you can tell who's getting the lion's share of attention. And I just think that it's a great movie and it did get nominated for its screenplay and for international film.

24:30But yeah, I think voters missed the mark on that one. That'll be interesting to see if they can get that international film win because it typically goes to the movie that's also nominated for best picture and it's not and it will it'll be either sentimental value or secret agent it just really depends i mean sentimental value would seem to have the upper hand it did really really well you know all those cast members getting nominated including el fanning and it got a best director nomination too but secret agent has recency on its side a lot of time it pays to be the last film that people are watching.

25:06And I think that film is. Yeah. Sag, man. The actor awards kind of feel a little bit out of step now. So much international presence in the Oscar nominations and the actor awards really didn't have any. They snubbed sentimental value and then sentimental value gets four acting nominations. They didn't nominate a lot of these international people. What's going on there? I mean, SAG-AFTRA is full of influencers. It's full of random American actors who probably aren't inclined to watch foreign films. Yeah, but they have nominating committees. They're supposed to kind of... They have nominating committees that are pretty much randomly chosen.