Should Hollywood Take the Microdrama Boom Seriously?

12 Feb 2026 · 33 min · 19 chapters

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In short

Whether Hollywood should take the microdrama boom seriously, and how DramaBox makes money with 90–180 second vertical episodes.

Guest

Shikone Zhu, LA-based head of studio at DramaBox; previously worked in development at Ternan’s Entertainment and on Three-Body Universe; USC film school background.

Key claims

Microdramas are mobile-first “vertical drama” series (50–90 episodes per show) using freemium unlocks. Market is projected to be $12–14B globally by end of 2026; $819M revenue in 2024, projected $3.8B by 2030. DramaBox reports $55M monthly revenue in 2025 and 7M daily active users. Production costs are about $2,000 per minute via non-union labor, minimal locations, and phone-screen optimization; 4-month turnaround from ideation to screen.

Notable examples

romance/fantasy romance (e.g., “my secret billionaire boyfriend”), and “cliffhanger every 90 seconds” writing; AI used for post/VFX (e.g., werewolf look), not for actor image recombination.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

The Rise of Microdramas

1:26 to 2:26

Explore the concept of microdramas and their impact on content consumption.

“Ever since the content recession started in 2023, Hollywood people have been looking for a path back to the peak TV boom times.”

Inside DramaBox: A Case Study

2:26 to 3:24

Learn about DramaBox's operations and the dynamics of the microdrama market.

“reached$819 million in 2024, according to one research firm, projected to rise to$3.8 billion by 2030.”

Microdrama Market Overview

3:24 to 4:34

Understand the current state and demographics of the microdrama market.

“genre content, how they make money, all of it.”

Content Creation and Budgeting Challenges

4:34 to 5:54

Delve into how microdramas are produced on a tight budget and the implications.

“So why don't you give us an overview, just a general overview of where the micro drama market is right now?”

Talent and Labor Dynamics in Microdramas

5:54 to 7:40

Examine the labor market for actors and writers in the microdrama format.

“I think in the beginning, because I joined this industry in early 2023 and by that time, it's mostly women over 45.”

Changing Audience Preferences

7:40 to 8:11

Discover how audience preferences are shifting within the microdrama space.

“So drama right now, I would say, would be the number one genre in this space right now.”

Writing for Microdramas: A Unique Approach

8:11 to 10:16

Learn about the specific writing styles suited for microdrama storytelling.

“A lot of things have changed since Quibi.”

Transition from Interactive to Vertical Drama

14:02 to 15:00

Explore the evolution of writers from interactive novels to vertical dramas.

“And for vertical drama, they transitioned from that space to film and TV, which is very interesting.”

Production Timelines for Microdramas

15:01 to 16:15

Learn about the production process and timelines for microdramas.

“So this is all about a scale business, right?”

AI's Role in Microdrama Production

18:36 to 21:00

Discuss the impact of AI on scriptwriting and post-production in microdramas.

“How is AI going to impact the production of these micro dramas?”
Show all 19 chapters

The Future of Storytelling

21:01 to 23:20

Understanding why Hollywood should explore the vertical drama format.

“Why should traditional Hollywood filmmakers explore this format?”

Audience Acquisition Strategies

23:21 to 25:52

Learn about the unique approaches to audience targeting and engagement.

“So it is a very fast cycle and it is high frequency.”

Curiosity and Perception in Hollywood

25:53 to 28:00

Explore the curiosity and skepticism surrounding the microdrama format in Hollywood.

“They would gladly take the opportunity to star in a quote-unquote movie or show, and then you could promote it to all of their followers.”

Anxiety in the Industry

28:00 to 28:36

Discussing the apprehensions in the filmmaking community regarding new formats.

“And I am seeing a lot of anxious people from LexiMedia who are kind of just nervous about whether this format is going to take over and how can they learn fast.”

Weekend Box Office Insights

28:36 to 29:17

Analyzing the box office performance of recent film releases.

“Craig, we missed you at the premiere of GOAT last weekend.”

Emerging Filmmaker Trends

29:17 to 30:04

Exploring the success of filmmakers like Emerald Fennell in the current market.

“The tracking for NRG is at like 45, 47 right now.”

Package Deals in Hollywood

30:04 to 30:48

Discussing the dynamics of package deals and bidding wars in the industry.

“Look, she knows how to make steamy, salacious, provocative movies that people want to go see.”

GOAT and Animated Movies

30:48 to 32:34

Examining the expectations for the animated film GOAT and its unique positioning.

“So let's move on to GOAT, which NRG has GOAT at 30 million.”

Crime 101's Challenges

32:34 to 33:28

Analyzing the challenges facing the film Crime 101 in a competitive market.

“And the stars like Chris Hemsworth is a streaming guy now outside of Avengers.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Matt Belloni:This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn ads. Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first, but didn't live up to the hype? Marketers know that feeling. They optimize for the numbers that look great, impressions, reach, and reacts. But when they don't show revenue, well, that's a not so great conversation with the CFO. LinkedIn has a word for that, bull spend. Instead, why not invest in what looks good to your CFO? LinkedIn ads generates the highest ROAS of all major ad networks. Reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. You can target by company, industry, job title, and more. So cut the bull spend.

0:37Matt Belloni:Advertise on LinkedIn, the network that works for you. Spend$250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a$250 credit for the next one. Just go to linkedin.com slash the town. That's linkedin.com slash the town. Terms and conditions apply.

1:00Matt Belloni:This episode of The Town is presented by 20th Century Studios, Avatar, Fire, and Ash. Don't miss the movie Critics Are Raving is epic and exciting and gorgeous and heartbreaking and stands as one of the greatest films ever made. It's got incredible visuals, jaw-dropping action, and a cinematic achievement. Avatar, Fire, and Ash, now playing in theaters and now nominated for the Academy Awards for Best Visual Effects and Best Costume Design. It is Thursday, February 12th. Ever since the content recession started in 2023, Hollywood people have been looking for a path back to the peak TV boom times.

1:36Matt Belloni:What if the answer is in shows with episodes that last just 90 seconds? Microdramas. I feel like people in town won't shut up about microdramas. Though the business in this country is still pretty small, and surprisingly few seem to understand them. If you're not familiar, these are basically if social media clips were crossed with serial romance novels. Short bursts of content, often one to three minutes, designed for mobile viewing and to get you hooked, often for free, and then you pay to watch more via micropayments or subscription. The content is cheap and often low quality. A lot of ludicrous romances based on Chinese web novels, badly behaving billionaires, titles like Forever Was a Lie or Waking Up Married to My Crush, that kind of stuff.

2:19Matt Belloni:But they're clearly catching on, mostly in China and other parts of Asia, but increasingly in this country, where revenue from microdramas reached$819 million in 2024, according to one research firm, projected to rise to$3.8 billion by 2030. And globally, the microdrama market is projected to reach$26 billion by 2030. Tons of money flowing into the space, and a bunch of companies have popped up to try to capitalize. One of those is DramaBox. It's a Singapore-based app. They've got a big production studio in LA and participated in a Disney accelerator program. They're trying to hook US viewers on soapy, vertical dramas.

2:57Matt Belloni:And they did$55 million in revenue per month in 2025, 7 million in daily active users. It earns money through pay-per-view, subscriptions, it's even hoping to co-develop projects with Hollywood talent. So how is that possible when entire shows can cost less than $300 ,000? That's what I want to talk about with my guest, Shikone Zhu. She's the DramaBox LA-based head of studio. She's going to get into the microdrama market right now. What works in this genre content, how they make money, all of it. Today, it's the micro drama boom, big money from small episodes. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

3:39Matt Belloni:All right, we are here with Shikon Zhu, who is the head of studio and one of the top LA-based executives at DramaBox. Welcome to the show. Thanks for having me, Matt. So I want to get into this. We've been wanting to do a micro drama show for a while because as much enthusiasm as there is out there in the business for this kind of nascent genre, there's a lot of skepticism as well. And some of that has been voiced on the show before. Lucas is not a big fan. but I have been curious about this because we're at this time where everything is coming together. Instagram Reels is coming to television and Netflix is starting to look more like YouTube and micro dramas are sort of this middle ground.

4:25Matt Belloni:They're not quite social media video and they're vertical but they're not quite TV quality but there are some pretty effective TV style storytelling devices. So why don't you give us an overview, just a general overview of where the micro drama market is right now? Who's watching it? How big it is? What you are doing at DramaBox? Just give us your pitch. Yeah, absolutely, Matt. So I guess to just kind of break down what vertical drama is briefly, It is a bite-sized mobile-first content that are overall like 90 to 120 minutes long. And each episode is around a minute to three minutes long. So a whole show is broken down into around 50 to 90 episodes.

5:16And we normally release them all in one go so people can go and binge it. And it's normally operating on a freemium model, meaning that you can watch the free episodes and unlock the rest by paying. So where the market is right now, I think we're looking at a 12 billion to 14 billion global market by the end of 2026. And this format first started in China and the market has been surging. And also it's still 80 % of the market is still in China. but I think the U.S. is the fastest growing market right now.

5:53Matt Belloni:And why is that? What is driving that? What are the demos on the U.S. micro drama market? I think in the beginning, because I joined this industry in early 2023 and by that time, it's mostly women over 45. So I think by that time, 70 % of the demo were women over 45. And now it is starting to shift already we're seeing 46 % of the audience who are 18 to 34, still women. But the highest spender right now are women aged 35 to 55, particularly in the US and the UK. And it's a lot of romance. There's a lot of fantasy romance, sort of heightened romance stuff, you know, my secret billionaire boyfriend, that kind of stuff.

6:42Exactly. Yes.

6:44Matt Belloni:Is that the only kind of content that performs in the microdrama format or are there others? I know you guys have you've talked about doing more, but is it primarily the kind of romance and click to see the next little, you know, next little iteration of the romance? Yeah, it's I think it first started with most of it being romance because this format was born from the web novel space. Like these Chinese web novels. Yes, serving the female readers, female audience with romance. But as the format grows, it is starting to shifting towards a lot more male oriented content and also just family dramas in general with no romance involved.

7:29But overall, I would say the genre is still heavily revolving around anything drama because it just serves this dopamine cycle for shorter format for the smaller screens. So drama right now, I would say, would be the number one genre in this space right now.

7:45Matt Belloni:It's funny that we're talking about this because obviously Quibi was trying a version of this five years ago, six years ago, and they flamed out after six months in part because everything was just so expensive. And I don't think people were quite willing to go to a separate app to watch the kind of stuff that they could watch on YouTube. But you do have a separate app and you guys are getting people to go to this. Is it just that the model has changed and you can only do this kind of content on a hyper micro budget model? Is that the secret sauce here? A lot of things have changed since Quibi.

8:24For example, during COVID, people really started to cultivate this habit of scrolling on their phone, and they started to consume content in a very different way compared to before. I think that really helped people getting used to this mobile-first format with the vertical dramas. Also, yes, the shows are made really cheap. I think we're looking at around$2 ,000 per minute.

8:53Matt Belloni:$2 ,000 per minute. How is that possible? I think people in Hollywood are going to hear that and their jaws will drop because you can't get out of bed for less than a couple million dollars an episode for a typical Hollywood show. And these are being made at a price. I mean, obviously you're not using union labor. You are not using locations. You're filming a lot of these in the same place. But you oversee. How many do you oversee now? Like how many are going at a given time? Right now, I think we have around 16 shows in different various stages. Last year, my team produced over 80 shows and launched them online.

9:33Matt Belloni:And how do you do them so cheap? I think, first of all, like you said, we do non-union. Second of all, because it is for a smaller format, it is for the phone screen. I think in the early days, in early 2023, we were outputting 540p resolutions. But now, you know, the platform's really optimized the streaming. So now we can do 1080p like before. But still, I think what matters shifts when you're doing a mobile-first content. For example, you don't need a vast location anymore because the screen is so narrow. You focus more, you put more resource on costume, makeups, and very attractive actors.

10:14So those all contribute to a smaller budget. Of course, we're still treating people nicely. We do 12-hour shoot days and all that, but it is definitely nowhere near as the union scale.

10:26Matt Belloni:Hot people can go a long way. Yes, exactly. So do you have the typical audition process? What do you pay an actor for 12 hours of work? In the beginning, early 2023, you pay$400,$500 for a 12-hour shoot day for the main leads who nearly appears in every single scene. So they're basically working for 7 to 10 days, 12 hours a day, nonstop. But now, you know, we're starting to have a quote-unquote a list in the space now who have several hit shows under their belt, who are, I think I'm seeing as high as$2 ,500 a day for lead talent. But I think most of them are still ranging from$1 ,000 a day. these are not SAG-AFTRA actors.

11:15Matt Belloni:And presumably, if you want to make it in the industry, you want to ultimately be in the unions. Do these performers for your movies, your microdramas, do they fear that they're not going to be able to get into the big guilds when they're doing this kind of work? Or have you found that the guilds recognize that this is sort of entry-level stuff and that someday these people can be in the traditional Hollywood guilds? That's a really good question. I think in the beginning, people are stepping into this industry because first of all, it was in the beginning of 2023. It was during the strike and a lot of people are fresh faces trying to make it, but found no work in Hollywood.

12:02Matt Belloni:Yeah. Well, that's persisted. Yes. And they rather start working and paying their rent than sitting at home drinking coffee. So I think that's what propelled a lot of people to enter the industry, not only the talents, but also crews, any creative, key creatives to enter the space in that early stage. And in 2024, last year, and now it is starting to become a consistent, sustainable work for a lot of people. So I think the guild is also catching up. I don't know if you've heard, but last year SAG basically put out a SAG agreement for vertical dramas. And I think we're in that kind of twilight zone right now where we don't know where the format belongs.

12:46But I do feel like it's not stopping people from being able to enter the guild if they want to. And eventually we will.

12:54Matt Belloni:You're getting the talent that you want. Yes. Yes, we are. What about writers? Sorry, I just want to add one more. We definitely want to work with union actors, of course. But right now, we're not tapping into that pool yet. Well, you're going to have to pay for them. And the budgets will go up. It could throw off your entire model. All of a sudden, you got Teamsters taking people in golf carts from one place to another and charging you$30 an hour. Yeah, that is a luxury for sure in this space. Writers. because it's a particular skill to be able to build to some kind of a cliffhanger every 90 seconds.

13:31Matt Belloni:And it's a unique way to watch this stuff and it's a unique way to write. So is there a community now of micro drama writers that are just very good at this stuff? Like where do you find your writing talent? Yeah, I think for writers, it might surprise people because in the early days, I started with this company called Real Shore in my early days. And I found that a lot of writers in that company are actually having a game background. So they either wrote for visual novels or interactive novels in the beginning. So they're not screenwriters. And for vertical drama, they transitioned from that space to film and TV, which is very interesting.

14:17And I think they're one of the earliest writers in the space who came from web novels and interactive novels. And now more and more actual screenwriters are also entering into the space. But definitely we're seeing a learning curve here because this format is just so mobile driven. It is so emotional driven. So it's not plot driven. So it is basically, I think it is different than a lot of the things that are taught in film schools right now.

14:48Matt Belloni:So this is in the long tradition of soap operas. This is basically a spliced up, emotionally driven soap opera, largely for women. They can watch late at night if they're lying in bed, you know, fantasizing. And this is like the next iteration of that. Yes. All right. So this is all about a scale business, right? It's not about the individual. So how long does it take to shoot a 120-minute microdrama show that's going to be split up into 50 segments? Are you doing one of these a week? Is this like the Hallmark holiday movie pipeline where it's just bang them out in two weeks? What is it? Oh, it is very similar to the Hallmark pipeline.

15:30Actually, we see a lot of talent and crews that came from that space. That's not a surprise. Who work really well in this space right now. Yes. So yeah, so I can maybe just take you from the top, like from script ideation to ready for production. That normally is a month and a month and a half process. And once the production team get the script, they normally have a three to four weeks prep. That's a good amount of prep in this space. And then they shoot the, you know, a hundred pages script in the time span of seven to 10 days. and after that, posts would take around a month or a month and a half.

16:08So in total, you're looking at around four months from script ideation to screen. So that's the turnaround for these kinds of projects.

16:17Matt Belloni:That's about what I would expect. Someone screams in a meeting, he's a billionaire, but he also has a secret, but he also has a secret child and then the child comes back and then boom, you're off. Right, right, yeah. Very, very, very accurate. I'm auditioning right now. I could do this on the side.

17:03Matt Belloni:12.5, or 15 milligram injection. ZepBound contains terzepatide and should not be used with other terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines. It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children. Do not share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take ZepBound if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.

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18:05Matt Belloni:This episode is brought to you by Spectrum Business. Fast, reliable internet means everything for your business and even this podcast. That's why I trust Spectrum Business. They keep companies of all sizes connected with internet, advanced Wi-Fi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24-7 US-based support. Millions of business owners already trust Spectrum Business. So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Service is not available in all areas. This is screaming for AI, is it not? How is AI going to impact the production of these micro dramas? First of all, AI has always been that kind of sword hanging over our head in the past two years.

18:49Matt Belloni:Because it could completely disrupt you, but it also could be a big tool. and there's no rules, there's no guild rules preventing you from putting some prompts into ChatGPT and saying, make it like my best friend billionaire, but have it be set in the Bahamas. And all of a sudden, ChatGPT spits out a script. Right, I think that is sort of what a lot of the platforms are dreaming of because, you know, way easier for them to produce more scripts. But still, like, I'm not seeing that being used in this way yet because I think AI is just still not able to write in the way that human writes right now even though yes we do a lot of kind of reboots quote-unquote and reskins or reiterations of the same storyline but you can still clearly see that human when you need the human creatives to take part in this to have some heart into the process and to be honest I think in the early days some of the platforms actually tried the way you said, and it did not output anything that's even legible for any production to use, for any platform to seriously consider using them.

20:06But on the other hand, AI has been very, very helpful for post-production, for the post-production workflow. It's helping with optimizing the quality of a lot of VFX, and that's been actually in practice right now as we speak. But we know how cautious we want to be around this area. You don't want to feed any actor's image into the AI and regenerate anything like that.

20:33Matt Belloni:You don't do that. You don't combine your five hottest actors into one AI-created super hot actor? Definitely not because we know if we do that or any of the platforms do that, that will create a lot of ethical issues, basically. And that's not something we want to step into. But, you know, if we're making a werewolf show and we need a really good-looking werewolf, we can generate that through the AI. And that's fine. Yeah, that's really funny. Why should traditional Hollywood filmmakers explore this format? I think you must know that, you know, Fox Entertainment recently took an equity stake in Hollywood, which is the company behind my drama.

21:15And they're committed to producing 200 vertical series.

21:18Matt Belloni:Don't you guys have a small investment from Disney? I mean, you were part of the accelerator program at Disney. So what does that entail? Are they involved in helping you? Are they, you know, you say you want to work with more Hollywood talent. Is Disney helping you there? Well, I think we're definitely trying to find a middle ground or it's a mutually learning process. We're kind of feeding into that curiosity from the whole industry about this genre, about the business model, because I think even before last year, vertical drama is still very, very niche. And I think last year at some point we hit the tipping point where the mainstream media starts to take note of what's happening right now in this space.

22:00And a lot of them are curious. A lot of them want to know more about how the business operates. How are we able to make the show so cheap and also make money? How does marketing works? And that's sort of an ongoing process where we're exchanging a lot of information with our partners. But yeah, back to your question, why should Hollywood care? Why should Hollywood people join in on this style or this new format? I guess, I think it is the future of storytelling, but it's not going to completely replace traditional legacy media. So for anyone who's interested to just explore a new outlet of telling stories, they can try they can drive i think it's really fun because i also come from a film background i went to film school at usc i worked at in development from at ternan's entertainment and three body universe and before that i just never heard of a thing of vertical drama um so once i i discovered this is completely a different business and this is high frequency narrative and compared to legacy media where you develop a story and you make it in five to six years, we make several shows in four months.

23:18And on day three of the release, we're able to learn whether it's a hit or it's a flop. So it is a very fast cycle and it is high frequency.

23:28Matt Belloni:That could be appealing to Hollywood people who are often so frustrated by how long things take. And you can work on a project for 10 years And finally, it either comes to a decision on you, whether you make it or you're not like here, you get some at least, you know, the ambition is obviously much lower than your typical Hollywood production. But you guys are upfront about that. And it's not, you know, it's not like you're pretending that you're making art here. You are making emotional driven videos that will appeal to the audience and the data will tell you where to go. I've read interviews with you where you said that the biggest challenge is customer acquisition costs.

Read the full transcript

24:06Matt Belloni:So is that basically just finding the audience on social media and targeting them via algorithms? Say, oh, if you are liking a series of TikTok videos about this creator, you might like our scripted version of something similar. Yes and no. I think, like you said, definitely audience acquisitions is one of the biggest thing in this business model. for example when i talk about marketing that's what i'm talking about we're buying traffic on social media platforms to drive traffic to our app so people can find discover the shows that they might enjoy um and that is a entirely different thing from you know how legacy media operates when they talk about marketing they're talking about marketing campaign they have a plan to roll out a certain show um but for us yes yeah well they do a lot of social marketing too it's it's a hybrid now but you're not you're not doing traditional advertising no uh we're uh doing traffic buying where um we're basically breaking down some of the shows into marketable moments marketable clips where maybe some people call it a trailer but it is not exactly that two hot people making out right the most emotionally punchy moments in the show or you know emotionally punchy i love that that's the term of art for making out right um and and you know we we try to use those kind of clips to uh attract people on social media and to uh you know convert the traffic into our platforms and that is definitely uh how we're operating right now to acquire the users and that's also how tiktok i think in the early days acquired their users well you know companies like netflix are just watching tiktok doing that and be like why are you doing that But then that works.

25:49That's just an entirely different way of acquiring users.

25:52Matt Belloni:Why don't you just hire a bunch of influencers to be your stars? They would gladly take the opportunity to star in a quote-unquote movie or show, and then you could promote it to all of their followers. Yeah, I think that is definitely something that a lot of the platforms are trying to do right now. Get Clavicular, the looks maxing guy. He'll get frame-mogged in a vertical video. All right, I'm writing that down. And it's going on to my pitch tomorrow. Craig can translate it for you. Craig's my Clavicular translator. He'll tell me all about it. But the ultimate question with this business model, as with every digital media business model, is how do you prevent YouTube from putting you out of business?

26:36Matt Belloni:Why is your model something that YouTube cannot subsume and do on its own? Because that was a lot of the criticism of Quibi is that everyone was like, well, okay, you're spending all this money on these original exclusive videos on your platform, but everyone's just going to go to YouTube. Just put it there. Are you producing for YouTube? And if not, why? And how do you prevent them from eating your lunch? I think that's a really good question. I might not have the best answers for it, but actually right now, all the platforms, all the vertical drama platforms have a YouTube channel and they do monetize through YouTube.

27:12And they also have, yes, TikTok as well. And I know TikTok is moving into this space as we speak. They're going to explore a free model for vertical drama viewing. So that's also going to create a lot of new energy in the space and we'll see how it goes.

27:29Matt Belloni:Okay, Craig, do you have anything here? I know you sort of cringe at a lot of this stuff, but it seems to be working. What is the perception around town of micro dramas when you're in meetings and you're talking to people? Is the feedback often negative? Is it questioning? Kind of what is the general vibe when you take these meetings and talk to people? I think the most of the sentiment we encounter would be curiosity in general. People are genuinely curious. What is this format and how is it different from traditional media and why does it work? So they're all very open to hear us. And I am seeing a lot of anxious people from LexiMedia who are kind of just nervous about whether this format is going to take over and how can they learn fast.

28:17Matt Belloni:You can make a movie for$300 ,000? Please leave right now. That's what the producers would say. The studio is probably saying, you can make a movie for$300 ,000? Like, we're going to put you in charge of everything. Yeah, if they're not a union signatory. I know the way this plays out with the guilt to be very interesting. All right. I appreciate you coming on the show. Thank you very much. Thank you so much, Matt and Craig. We are back with the call sheet. Craig, we missed you at the premiere of GOAT last weekend. You were not able to attend. I went with my nine-year-old son. He ended up meeting Steph Curry, got the coveted autograph.

28:56Matt Belloni:You were very jealous. Very jealous. Happy for your son. I hope he recognized that he was in the presence of greatness. Exactly. There were actual goats on the red carpet. You also missed that. Big weekend at the box office. Goat is actually not the biggest title. It's Wuthering Heights is going to do probably over 50 million, I think. The tracking for NRG is at like 45, 47 right now. Even Warners is admitting it's probably going to do 50. So let's set the line at 50. And what are you saying about Wuthering Heights? Budget about 80. I would take the over. There's a lot of negative online criticism of this movie, which I would argue means that it's actually pierced the zeitgeist and people care about it.

29:41Matt Belloni:Emerald Fennell is interesting because I feel like her movies, or at least Saltburn and now this one, seem to be critically, you know, people are critically skeptical, but they're commercially successful. Well, not Saltburn. saltburn didn't do much in theaters it only did like burn crushed on amazon it did and that's why i think amazon just flubbed the release they didn't know what they had they took it to festivals and positioned it as an awards movie when it's like no no no no this is elevated trash they should have done a big marketing campaign and tried to open it like a normal movie and i think warner's learned from that and they're going for the the you know the the weekend couples and girls night crowd.

30:20Matt Belloni:Yeah. Look, she knows how to make steamy, salacious, provocative movies that people want to go see. Well, she has two very hot leads. So that helps. And Margo is a producer on it. This was an interesting one where they packaged it up with MRC and sold it as a package to the highest bidder. And Netflix came in with a bid that was higher than what they ultimately took from Warner Brothers. But they wanted this big theatrical release. And I think they're going to get it. I think they're going to get over 50 million. So I'm going to take the over on Weathering Heights. So let's move on to GOAT, which NRG has GOAT at 30 million.

30:53Matt Belloni:And these are for the four day, by the way, the holiday Monday. This is not a three day opening. This is a four day. Sony is saying GOAT is going to get to like 2025. NRG has it at 30. Sony tends to low ball. So let's put the line at like 27. Where are you on GOAT? I saw it. So it's a quality standard kids movie, rags to riches, underdog sports story. The animation is kind of cool. it's not breaking any ground uh you know thematically but my kid loved it he told all his friends so i'm gonna also take the over on 27 for goat i'm gonna have to defer to you on that because goat is unique in that i mean there are not many original non-ip based animated movies that are successful yes so this one feels much more risky and i so i defer to you if you why do you feel like this one will work?

31:43Matt Belloni:Well, first of all, the budget on these Sony movies is a lot lower than like a Disney original animated movie. It's in, they're saying in the 80 to 90 million. So even if it gets up to a hundred, that's still less than what you would see. I also think they're getting a lot of promotion. I think this is a basketball oriented movie. It's got a lot of black stars in it. They're promoting it around the NBA all-star game and on NBA. So I think that it's going to bring in a big demo shift from typical animated animated movies and get a huge black audience and couple that with the general kids and family audience and i think it'll do fine you know it was not going to break the bank but it'll be a solid little hit you know one thing that we haven't talked about a lot is how few sports movies come out these days there used to be a good sports movie every year or two and now they are few and far between i know you should lobby them when you're running hollywood one every quarter yeah comedies and sports movies what we're not talking about is the third big movie this weekend crime 101 got a bomb alert on that one chris hemsworth that movie cost like 90 million dollars they were saying i think it's probably a little more i know this was also a competitive bidding environment netflix wanted this one and amazon got it it's got chris hemsworth mark ruffalo barry keegan like this movie is tracking for like 16 million and i i would actually take the under on that i just don't think it's gonna work doesn't feel special enough.

33:03Matt Belloni:And the stars like Chris Hemsworth is a streaming guy now outside of Avengers. Another potential problem for Amazon. They just had Mercy with Chris Pratt. They had the Melania movie. Now they've got Crime 101. Like we're only into the second week of February. That's three underperformers already this year, potentially. Yeah. A crime movie, though, with Mark Ruffalo and Chris Hemsworth, that's going to be on Amazon Prime. I mean, that's like how to get a dad 101 to watch your movie. Oh, yeah. It'll be fine on the service. And it'll probably be a rewatchable in like 2030 but i don't know how well the reviews are fine not great but uh we'll see all right that's the show for today i want to thank my guest shikone ju producer craig horoback artist jesse lopez and john jones and i want to thank you we'll see you next week hey sweetie your mother uh showed me this carvana thing uh for selling the car i'm I'm going to give it a try.

33:54Matt Belloni:Wish me luck. Me again. I put in the license plate. It gave me an offer. Unbelievable. Okay, I accepted the offer. They're picking it up Tuesday from the driveway. I haven't even left my chair. It's done. The car is gone. I'm holding a check. Anyway, Carvana, give it a whirl. Love ya. So good, you'll want to leave a voicemail about it. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply.

From the publisher

Matt is joined by Shicong Zhu, head of West Coast Studios at DramaBox, to discuss just how successful and profitable vertical micro-dramas have become, how they are produced so cheaply, the genres that work best for vertical video, and whether this is a threat to traditional Hollywood filmmaking (00:00). Matt finishes the show with an opening weekend box office prediction for ‘Wuthering Heights,’ ‘Goat,’ and ‘Crime 101’ (25:47).

Host: Matt Belloni

Guest: Shicong Zhu

Producers: Craig Horlbeck, Jessie Lopez, and Jon Jones

Theme Song: Devon Renaldo

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH. FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION.

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